Beerleaguer - Phillies Blog, Baseball News, Trade Rumors & Spirits

Phillies sign York Revolution’s longest-tenured player

Hawaiian infielder Keoni DeRenne holds the York Revolution record for career hits (357), runs (197), at-bats (1293), doubles (71), stolen bases (47), and walks (160), according to the York Daily Record. [Link]

In 10 minor league seasons, including time in the Braves,Yankees, Diamondbacks, and Red Sox organizations, he he’s a .268/.346/.358 hitter, reaching as high as Triple-A with Arizona in 2004 and 2005, and Boston in 2006. He’s spent the last three seasons in nearby York of the independent Atlantic League, hitting .289/.378/.358 with five homers and 18 stolen bases in 533 plate appearances, earning Revolution Player of the Year honors. Ninty-four of his games came at second and 40 at short. He’s not the world’s slickest fielder, registering 36 errors in ’08 and 20 in ’09, including 10 errors in 40 games at short.

Notes: I thought we'd see more Antonio Bastardo this spring, but so far, he's logged only one Grapefruit League inning, an inning less than both Sergio Escalona and Mike Zagurski. With J.C. Romero not expected back until mid-April, these are the pitchers the Phillies will be leaning on. Or perhaps not. Stay tuned. On the offensive side, it’s a good thing Chris Duffy was one of the guys who faced Brad Lidge’s live bullpen yesterday, just to shake off the cobwebs. Duffy, a non-roster invitee, has not appeared in a boxscore since the Florida State game. Beerleaguer favorite Tuffy Gosewisch is also MIA from the stat sheet.

Update: A reader informs us that Bastardo pitched two innings in Wednesday's B game. "In his first inning, he got the first two outs then gave up two hits before getting out of the inning with a strikeout. In the second inning, he got the first two outs then gave up three hits, the last one a double that scored a run, but thanks to a great relay, they nailed the second runner at the plate."

Another day at the office for Phillies' starting pitcher

Beerleaguer's spring correspondents observed that "it's worth the price of admission just to watch Tyson Gillies play center field." Here's what else they saw.

Cole Hamels and Kyle Drabek both looked sharp in their afternoon match-up. Hamels kept pace with the hot start of his rotation-mates; he was dominant through the first three innings, not allowing a base-runner, but surrendered a lead-off home run to Jose Bautista in the fourth. Drabek only went two innings, allowing a hit and a walk but no runs. Drabek was consistently popping the catcher's mitt with 93 mph heat on the corners, while also mixing in his big curve and another pitch that looked like a cutter. Prospect J.C. Ramirez rebounded from last week's poor debut and looked great in his three innings of work, striking out three scrubs en route to the save.

The offensive highlights came from Placido Polanco, who got on base in all four plate appearances, and John Mayberry, who continues to hit the ball hard just about every time up. Mayberry crushed two doubles into the wind and off the top of the left field fence.  In the field, Freddy Galvis made a couple slick plays at short, but the best moment came in the 9th, with Tyson Gillies sprinting all the way back to the track and making an unbelievable stab on a ball he had no business being anywhere near. It's worth the price of admission just to watch Gillies play center field. - courtesy of Monsterdouble.com

Notes: Cody Ransom belted a ninth-inning homer and also homered in the morning "B" game. The Phillies press office is wondering if a player has ever homered in two different cities, against the same team, in one day.

Game chat: Hamels meets Drabek today in Dunedin

Cole Hamels hopes to put another encouraging start under his belt today when the Phillies face Kyle Drabek and the Blue Jays today at 1 p.m. Earlier today, Jamie Moyer tossed three scoreless innings in the early bird special game. Aside from Joe Blanton, Phillies’ starters are off to a sizzling start this spring, including another dominant showing by Roy Halladay last night under the lights. The Phils dropped Atlanta 7-4. Ryan Madson was pasted for four runs. Meanwhile on the offensive side, John Mayberry has made his mark just as he did a year ago. He’s 5-for-15 with a homer and has been hitting the ball hard. And how about that Brian Bocock (4-for-9)? From what I've seen, he doesn't get cheated.

Programming note: Beerleaguer on Comcast DNL

Tune in to Comcast SportsNet today at 5 p.m. when I join Michael Barkann and the panel of Daily News Live to discuss the Phillies and the 2010 Maple Street Press Annual. The exact time of the segment is still undetermined, so set the DVR.

Beerleaguer for breakfast: Burrell a fit for '11 outfield

If the Phillies can’t afford to keep Jayson Werth, they’ll be short on right-handed pop and could be seeking a stopgap corner outfielder to help facilitate Domonic Brown’s transition to the Major Leagues.

Yesterday, Beerleaguers named outfielder Michael Taylor as the prospect the Phillies will miss most from the group of seven players who were moved out of the system in the Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay deals. Taylor has impressed at every level of the minor leagues, but aside from that, readers were looking ahead to a post-2010 lineup that will likely be without a right-handed power threat. With existing contracts set to rise, the Phillies will face even more payroll restrictions, even with several players coming off the books. It’s just one reason why old pal Pat Burrell could be a fit for what the Phillies need. Even if Burrell bounces back from his career-worst .221/.315/.367, he will have limited free agent appeal and could be willing to settle for less in order to wrap up his career in Philadelphia. He recently waxed nostalgic over his time in Philly. [Link] Burrell’s defensive limitations aren’t exposed quite as much at Citizens Bank Park, plus, the Phillies have a good fourth outfielder in the fold in Ben Francisco to lend late-game defensive relief. An outfield of Shane Victorino, Raul Ibanez, Burrell, Brown and Francisco would balance versatility and pop on both sides of the plate.

A left/right platoon with Brown and Burrell is in keeping with how the Phillies have groomed many players at the Major League level, including Chase Utley and Werth.

Plus, Burrell becomes the interleague and World Series DH.

Poll: Which prospect will the Phillies miss most?

Fairly generic poll question to start your morning.

Kendrick crisp, but Contreras cuffed in 7-5 loss to NY

The metamorphosis of Kyle Kendrick continued today as the right-hander made another strong bid to become the Phillies' fifth starter.

Kendrick allowed one hit and struck out one in three scoreless frames. Unfortunately, Jose Contreras followed and opened the flood gates, allowing six runs on six hits and three walks in just 1 2-3 innings. Jimmy Rollins went deep on the first pitch of the game, his second round-tripper of spring. John Mayberry also launched a deep home run. Beerleaguer's Denny B saw it like this:

- "Kendrick was sharp as a tack and kept NY's lefties off balance and used both sides of the plate. He had good velocity and had a particularly good slider, that he used to get inside on lefties (Kendrick said it was a cutter that he threw to Cano, who inside-outed it for a 2B down the LF line). Very encouraging first couple of outings in ST.

- "Contreras looked like he usually does when he struggles. Was falling behind and nibbling with hitters and got hammered when he was in hitter's counts. Still has a good fastball and good stuff though.

- "Mathieson threw mostly fastballs, mostly at 93-94 MPH. Didn't seem to have that little extra life yet. Still early in ST for hard-throwers. Had pretty good command though.

- "Mayberry hit three rockets, in his first three at bats (all against RHP). All were on hanging curveballs. His swing looks good and he is a very good defensive outfielder. Has pretty good speed, too (which he showed on the stolen base, where he got a very average jump)."

Programming note: Tune in to Angelo Cataldi and WIP's Morning Team tomorrow at 7 a.m. when I preview the Phillies' season and discuss the 2010 Maple Street Press Phillies Annual.

Romero delay allows Phillies to stall on 5th starter

J.C. Romero has announced that he doesn’t expect to be ready until the Phillies' first home stand April 12-15, meaning there are two openings in the Opening Day bullpen.

The following question is the Phillies' equivalent to the 500-pound gorilla in the room: What happens if Jamie Moyer loses the fifth starter battle? Do they dare demote him to the bullpen again with all that he stands to make in starting incentives? His salary rises by $500,000 when he starts his 25th, 27th, 29th and 31st games and increases by the same amount when he reaches 160, 170, 180 and 190 innings. Would they attempt to trade him? It’s highly unlikely, considering his age, cost, recent injury history and the fact that he would have a say in where he goes. It’s one of the reasons why some people believe Kendrick is doomed to lose the battle, since he can be optioned and might put up less of a struggle if he started the year in the bullpen the way J.A. Happ did last year. The Phillies’ play a scattered schedule in the early going and will not necessarily need a fifth starter until the first home stand.

If I were to set the odds, this is how I would expect to Phillies’ pitching staff to look once they break camp: Halladay, Hamels, Blanton, Happ, Moyer with a bullpen of Lidge, Madson, Baez, Durbin, Contreras, Bastardo and Kendrick. When Romero returns, either Bastardo or Kendrick goes to the minors.

In this regard, the Romero injury might be a minor blessing. Assuming a guy like Antonio Bastardo or Sergio Escalona would fill one of the openings, the extra slot could also allow them to carry Rule 5 pick David Herndon a little longer, in hopes that the Angels would be less likely to reacquire him while the season is already underway. Of course, there’s always the possibility that they carry a six-man bench, but a 12-man pitching staff has traditionally been their preference. The chances of that might increase if Brad Lidge starts the season on the DL.

Kendrick starts: The Phillies and Yankees play at 1:05 today in a game you can watch live online at www.phillies.com. Jose Contreras, Chad Durbin and Scott Mathieson will also pitch.

Shoulder keeps Vic on the sidelines until tomorrow

Center fielder Shane Victorino will not make the trip to Tampa today when a contingency of Phillies' starters take on the Yankees. He is expected to make his first start tomorrow.

Typically, it's tough to keep the Flyin Hawaiian off the field, even during Spring Training, but so far, Victorino, who will reportedly be in the lineup tomorrow against Atlanta, has yet to get in a game. Todd Zolecki writes that seven of the Phillies' eight starting position players will make the trip to George M. Steinbrenner Field today. Victorino's absence has allowed Domonic Brown a chance to shine. The young outfielder is off to a 7-for-13 start in the Grapefruit League and was instrumental in Wednesday's exhibition game with Florida State.

Yesterday, J.A. Happ and Tampa's James Shields matched one another with strong showings in the early innings. Phillipe Aumont had a nice bounce back from his first appearance, coaxing a bases-loaded double play from Pat Burrell in the third, and got the Phils through five unscathed.  Jimmy Rollins came up small in the second with the bases loaded, striking out on a high fastball with a full count, but atoned for it with a solo home run in his next at-bat to break the scoreless tie. Joe Savery struggled mightily in his one inning of work, giving up three runs. Brown continued to tear it up with another three hits, including a two-run double to send the game in to extra innings. The Phils fell in the 10th 5-3. (courtesy of www.monsterdouble.com)

Be mindful of the misdirection; Phils, Rays play today

The transition from March to April is rarely straightforward.

Not that there's a reason to reassure oneself about the uselessness of spring stats, but this morning, I looked up some of the all-time misleading springs in Beerleaguer history. Brett Myers had a few. Fresh off a very generous three-year, $25.75 million contract extension, a slimmed-down Myers arrived in Clearwater in 2007 ready to turn the page and become the staff ace after an ugly season that included an arrest in Boston. Three disastrous starts into the season and Myers was moved to the bullpen. Then in 2008, he grudgingly accepted a rotation reassignment, and statistically, appeared to be ready, going 3-0 with a 1.13 ERA in spring. He was demoted to the IronPigs in early July.

Myers is one of a dozen examples. Aaron Rowand hit something like .170 during '07 spring training and was reportedly on the trade block. Nine months later, he finalized a five-year, $60 million deal with San Francisco following a monster year. And of course, there was Eric Bruntlett.

Usually, warning signs are better identified through physical observation. Ryan Howard arrived fat and out of shape in '07 and was a complete mess for months. Cole Hamels arrived in '09 unprepared and paid for it all season.

But it's not just stats; rosters rarely shake out the way they're supposed to. This spring, the process seems pretty straight forward, but the Phillies, and injuries, of course, have a way of complicating things. Speaking of 2007, do you remember that Karim Garcia was expected to capture the fifth outfielder spot based on a strong showing and lack of internal depth, only to be released before Opening Day? Often, the Phillies seem to devote most of their focus toward acquiring last-minute help from the outside. In '07, they filled their final spot with reliever Francisco Rosario, then juggled rosters once again when Jon Lieber and Freddy Garcia came off the DL, sending a month's worth of roster speculation down the drain.

The Phillies say they're comfortable letting young guys like Antonio Bastardo and Sergio Escalona duke it out for the final spot in the 'pen, but don't be surprised if the 25th man is currently in some other camp. Brad Lidge and J.C. Romero's status could also become a critical factor. Plus, the Phillies have a number of players without roles who would be attractive to other clubs.

Game chat: J.A. Happ makes first official Grapefruit Leauge start today at 1 p.m. against the Rays. Phillippe Aumont, Drew Naylor, Jesus Sanchez, David Herndon, Johan Flande and Joe Savery will also put in work. Lineups are posted. Rollins (SS), Polanco (3B), Utley (2B), Howard (1B), Ibanez (LF), Francisco (CF), Brown (RF), Gload (DH) and Schneider (C). Pat Burrell starts in right field against his old team.

Bullpen shines as Phillies, Pirates call it a draw

After Joe Blanton's rocky start, Phillies' pitching put the clamps on Pittsburgh, shutting out the host Buccos through nine innings. The game ended in a 3-3 10-inning tie.

BRADENTON, Fla. - The Phillies got out of the blocks fast with lead-off man Dewayne Wise tripling off the center field wall. Bucs starter Kevin Hart was in a boatload of trouble early as Wise scored on a wild pitch and Hart then walked the next three batters. Unfortunately, Raul Ibanez's double play prevented the Phils from breaking the game open. After that, the Phillies offense sputtered, scoring one run the rest of the way. Joe Blanton, making his first start of the Grapefruit season, was hit hard in the first inning as four of the first five batters connected sharply, including a two-run home run down the right field line by Bucs right-fielder Ryan Church. Blanton rebounded with a scoreless second and would retire five out of his last six. Danys Baez relieved Blanton and looked sharp.  He only threw eight pitches for a 1-2-3 third inning, and came back to throw a scoreless fourth. He had four ground ball outs and two strikeouts. Former Phil Jack Taschner threw a scoreless sixth, striking out Ryan Howard, Raul Ibanez and John Mayberry. - Billy Mac

Brown, Gillies turning heads: The offense missed some opportunities early, but showed good patience against some wild Pirates pitchers, drawing six walks in the game. Domonic Brown and Tyson Gillies continued to bring excitement to the later innings. Brown seemed to get on base almost every time up, including a single off Taschner. Gillies drew a walk in one of his two plate appearances, and stole second easily despite getting a poor jump. Add in one diving catch each for the youngsters and the future of the Phils' outfield looked bright on this day. - Furnstein and Jonesman (www.monsterdouble.com)

Bullpen: Including Baez, B.J. Roseberg, Mike Zagurski, David Herndon and Jesus Sanchez combined for eight shutout innings in the 10-inning affair.

Game chat: Kentucky Joe takes his turn in Bradenton

Joe Blanton, the recipient of a three-year, $24 million contract extension, makes his first Grapefruit League appearance today when the Phillies visit the Pirates starting at 1:05 p.m.

Preview: The Phillies must be happy with what they've seen so far from their starting rotation, including Jamie Moyer, who pitched an effortless three-inning shutout in yesterday's "B" game against the Jays. Moyer's quick return from three offseason surgeries should set up a heated battle between the 47-year-old and Kyle Kendrick for the fifth starter spot this spring. Like many of his rotation compadres, Blanton arrived in better shape this spring as he prepares for a season as the Phillies' No. 3 starter. Danys Baez and Mike Zagurski are also slated to throw today, according to Ryan Lawrence of the Delco Times.

Taking the field behind him will be 19-year-old Freddy Galvis, starting at shortstop. Baseball America has compared the young gloveman to fellow Venezuelan Cesar Izturis. The Phillies believe that his offensive game will eventually thrive, citing a balanced swing and terrific hand-eye coordination. Galvis lost a couple of months of development last season recovering from a broken hand. There's little doubt about his glove and instincts. The Phillies used him at second base the other day.

The lineup has been posted: Wise (CF), Dobbs (3B), Utley (2B), Howard (1B), Ibanez (LF), Brown (RF), Mayberry (DH), Ruiz (C) and Galvis (SS). With Shane Victorino still nursing a sore shoulder, Charlie Manuel will get his first real look at Dewayne Wise, a defensive specialist who was signed earlier this offseason.

Young Phillies experience ups and downs in 14-9 loss

DUNEDIN, Fla. - Cole Hamels gave up a lead-off home run to dead center to Jose Bautista, but then settled down and pitched well. The radar gun readings on the outfield scoreboard had his fastball consistently at 89 and he even touched 90. He mixed in a few change-ups and curves, and looked to even cut his fastball on a few occasions. The Blue Jays did their damage against J.C. Ramirez and non roster invitees Ryan Vogelsong and Bill White. The righty Ramirez, who has a very deliberate delivery, is slow to the plate. His threw primarily fastballs that sat at 92, mixing in a curve. His line wasn't as bad as it seems as he was a victim of shoddy defense. Placido Polanco made a poor throwing decision at third and catcher Brian Schneider missed a pop-up. Ryan Howard and Jimmy Rollins also had errors in a sloppily played game. Tyson Gillies had a home run to right and Domonic Brown had two hits and threw a runner out at the plate, demonstrating what scouts believe to be his strongest asset: his arm. - Billy Mac (Photo courtesy of www.monsterdouble.com)

Game chat: Brown ready to run with the big boys

Top prospect Domonic Brown gets a chance to shine with the Phillies’ starting lineup, while a rejuvenated Cole Hamels makes his spring debut, when the Phillies play the Jays at 1 p.m. in Dunedin.

Brown will patrol right field and bat seventh for Charlie Manuel, who will slide Jayson Werth to center field and give Ross Gload a turn at DH. Brian Schneider does the catching. Earlier today, Jamie Moyer made his spring debut with three shutout innings in the “B” game. Meanwhile, Hamels has become a hot name this spring. Days after Jayson Stark called him “a man on a mission,” ESPN cohort Buster Olney listed him first among the top three players turning heads this spring. Stud Atlanta prospect Jason Heyward was second; Bobby Cox compared the sound of the ball off his bat to that of Mickey Mantle. Ah, spring, and all of its flights of fancy.

Fresh-armed Phillies get their revenge on Yankees

The much-anticipated debut of Roy Halladay set the tone for a strong showing by the Phillies pitching staff as the Phils beat the Yanks 3-2 in the Grapefruit League opener.

The Phillies' ace struck out three over a pair of hitless frames, throwing 21 of his 24 pitches for strikes. After Halladay, Kyle Kendrick made a crisp, albeit short, opening bid for the fifth starter job, forcing a couple of grounders over two shutout innings. The reports on KK's conditioning seem justified; Kendrick appears to be in top physical form and showed no signs of the tentative pitcher we saw last spring. Not to be outdone, 38-year-old Jose Contreras, who has also impressed Charlie Manuel this spring, demonstrated a split the Phillies hope will make him effective against left-handed hitters. The game ended on a walk-off Wilson Valdez squib that ate up pitcher Wilkins Arias. Beerleaguer correspondent Billy Mac was there:

"Another cold, windy day at the ballpark. I was fortunate to be sitting in section 111, right behind home plate, so I had a great vantage point to see Halladay. Everything was moving and on the black, quite impressive. He struck out Swisher and Winn looking in the second. Not much offense today as the wind was knocking some balls down. Quintin Berry, who came in as a pinch runner in the 9th inning, can really fly. I don't think I've seen anyone circle the bases like that since Michael Bourn." - Billy Mac

The Phillies go next door tomorrow for a 1:05 p.m. engagement with the Jays in Dunedin, Fla, with Cole Hamels scheduled to go, and Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Placido Polanco, Raul Ibanez and Jayson Werth all expected to make the trip, according to Scott Lauber. The two clubs also play a "B" game at 10 a.m. in Clearwater, with Jamie Moyer making his spring debut in a game that will feature a couple of prospects.

Game chat: Not just another spring training game

New ace Roy Halladay makes his debut opposite C.C. Sabathia when the Phillies open their Grapefruit League schedule in a World Series rematch with the Yankees today at 1:05 p.m. at Bright House Field. The game will air live on CSN then later tonight on MLB Network. Lineups were posted earlier this morning: Rollins, Polanco, Francisco, Werth, Mayberry (LF), Ransom (1B), Castro (2B), Bocock (DH), Ruiz. For Ransom, it's a meeting against his former team. Brian Bocock, a light-hitting minor league infielder and part of the 40-man roster, was signed earlier this offseason and got three at bats last night as well. Looks like the Phillies are seeing what they have. Fifth starter candidate Kyle Kendrick is also expected to pitch today.

Thursday: Offense pours it on in practice game

Phillippe Aumont was roughed up in his debut, but the Phillies, behind strong showings from non-roster catcher Dane Sardinha and top prospect Domonic Brown, scored 13 runs in seven innings in an abbreviated 13-6 win over Florida State. Beerleaguer spring correspondent Billy Mac was there:

The game was played under cold and windy conditions. The temperature reading on the center field scoreboard read 51 degrees, but it felt much colder. Sparse crowd and mostly FSU fans. Phillippe Aumont was all over the plate, but the three-run homer was wind blown. Juan Castro is a very slow runner. Ryan Howard looks to have altered his batting stance. His left elbow is higher now. Jimmy Rollins looks to have put on weight. Too much honeymooning? Phils may have put out their fastest outfield ever: Domonic Brown (RF), Tyson Gillies (CF), and Quintin Berry (LF). Phils should consider not inviting FSU back. They were running out a new pitcher every inning and most of these guys could't find the plate. I was afraid someone was going to get hurt. I understand it is an exhibition, but you are facing pros and people are paying money to see this. -Billy Mac

Beerleaguer: Aumont finished with two hits, five runs, three walks, one home run and one wild pitch in 2-3 innings. J.A. Happ threw two scoreless innings, while Drew Naylor earned the win with two scoreless innings of his own.

Game chat: Exhibition schedule begins with FSU

Live baseball is back tonight as the Phillies play the first of 32 spring games. First up: college powerhouse Florida State. First pitch is 7:05 from Bright House Field.

What to watch: Rule 5 pick David Herndon is scheduled to throw tonight and is one of only a handful of players with something on the line this spring. Herndon, a 6-5 right-handed sinkerballer, must break camp with a spot on the 25-man roster or be offered back to the Angels. Should Brad Lidge or J.C. Romero need more time, there could be another spot for a guy like Herndon, if it isn't already earmarked for the loser of the fifth starter struggle between Jamie Moyer and Kyle Kendrick. Herndon will follow J.A Happ, who gets the start for the defending National League champions, followed by youngsters Phillipe Aumont, Drew Naylor, Yohan Flande, Joe Savery and Jesus Sanchez.

Polanco makes debut: My earlier information on the starting lineup was incorrect; Charlie Manuel goes with a very veteran setup: Rollins, Polanco, Utley, Howard, Werth, Ibanez, Dobbs at DH, Mayberry at CF, Ruiz. They could have their hands full with the No. 3-ranked ‘Noles, who enter tonight unbeaten and fresh off a defeat of No. 5 Florida. Losing to FSU wouldn’t be the disgrace Pittsburgh experienced when they lost to Manatee Community College last spring.

Listen to Phillies / Seminoles live tonight at 7 p.m.

Can’t wait until tomorrow’s Grapefruit League opener to get your Phillies fix? Seminoles.com, the official athletic site of Florida State University, will carry tonight’s exhibition game via streaming audio. J.A. Happ gets the start for the Phillies, with youngsters like Domonic Brown and Tyson Gillies expected to play.  [Link]

For Happ, doubt a greater obstacle than probability

David Murphy of the Daily News offers a well-considered and sharply written piece on how J.A. Happ will look to prove that 2009 was no statistical fluke. [Link]

Put yourself in J.A. Happ’s shoes. You’ve just completed an outstanding rookie season in which you led the Phillies in ERA (2.93) and tied for the team lead in wins (12). You finished runner up for National League Rookie of the Year. And yet every published article or piece of analysis since the end of the season claims, or makes reference to claims, that your terrific season never happened. Murphy offers an explanation.

“[Happ] finished 2009 with a striking disparity between his ERA (2.93) and his FIP (4.33) and xFIP (4.49). In other words, he managed to rank eighth in the NL in ERA, despite a strikeout rate (6.45 per nine innings), walk rate (3.0 walks per nine innings) and home run rate (1.1 HR/9) that ranked right around the league average. Happ also held hitters to a .158 batting average with runners in scoring position, resulting in his stranding 85.7 percent of his baserunners, which statistical research suggests will be difficult to maintain. All of these factors, combined with his reliance on a fastball that averaged around 90 mph last season, led many experts to believe that Happ's stellar ERA was more a product of luck than skill. ‘Happ's ERA should be somewhere in the mid-4s, and if that was the case, no one would be talking about him as a lock for rookie of the year,’ wrote ESPN analyst Keith Law, a former member of the Blue Jays' front office, after seeing Happ pitch last September.

“Which brings us to Happ, who finished 2009 with a striking disparity between his ERA (2.93) and his FIP (4.33) and xFIP (4.49). In other words, he managed to rank eighth in the NL in ERA, despite a strikeout rate (6.45 per nine innings), walk rate (3.0 walks per nine innings) and home run rate (1.1 HR/9) that ranked right around the league average.”

Beerleaguer: Murphy added that Happ and the Phillies don’t subscribe to such beliefs “and in doing so, they point to a number of factors that concrete numbers are unable to quantify, from pitch sequence and deception to sheer intelligence and will.”

To Happ’s credit, he’s displayed nothing but toughness and maturity so far, handling his initial '09 bullpen demotion with maturity. And in the defense of the sabermetric crowd, they’re not the only faction to display skepticism over Happ. Traditional scouting publications, like Baseball America, expected him to top out as a fourth or fifth starter at best, seeing him as more of finesse pitcher with iffy control. The Phillies themselves seemed to harbor some uncertainty, grooming him over two full seasons in Triple-A; arm issues (and perhaps a poor environment) contributed to a 5.02 ERA and 117/62 K/BB ratio in 2007 with Ottawa. Fully healthy, he put himself back on the map with a 3.60 ERA and 151/48 ratio with Lehigh Valley in ‘08.

Be that as it may, there’s a reason the term ‘sophomore slump’ exists. There’s something disadvantageous about performing a second time around, and to me, conditions are perfect for Happ to fold under pressure, just as Kendrick fell apart in his sophomore season of ‘08.

Happ has never fallen into a prolonged slump; heck, he’s never even had a blow-up game. But eventually he will. It’s a hurdle he’ll either clear or cause a crash, which was part of Kendrick’s undoing. Something else to consider: Bear in mind how sparingly Happ was used in a so-so postseason, following a so-so September recovering from a strained oblique. The Phillies didn’t exactly instill much trust in their young lefty, and when I asked Ruben Amaro Jr. whether they had officially closed the book on Happ in the bullpen, he wouldn’t commit to an answer, saying that the rotation was Charlie Manuel and Rich Dubee’s preference. And, just as Kendrick spent the 07-08 offseason reading comparisons to Marty Bystrom, Happ has been reading the same types of articles, only dealing with FIP and xFIP.

Beer nuts: ESPN’s Jayson Stark says the biggest buzz around the Phillies is not Roy Halladay, but Cole Hamels, who has come to camp looking like a man on a mission. [Audio inside this article]. ... Here’s a bookmarkable rundown of 2010 salaries, including minor league and non-roster invitees. ... Lefty non-roster invitee Bill White, 31, is today’s Beerleaguer of the day. This line from the Daily News jumped off the page yesterday: “White has showed a crisp fastball and nice slider in side sessions - locating both pitches will be his key.”