Beer Nuts: Yanks hot for Abreu? If you say so.

Random thoughts about Philadelphia Phillies baseball, of course.

--- With all this talk about a trade with New York, has anyone stepped back to consider whether the Yankees actually need Bobby Abreu? If it makes George Steinbrenner happy having a name-brand player at every position, then yes. In terms of winning games, no. They can’t expect much better. They’ve won five in a row, and nine of their last 10. Their corner outfielders have done a serviceable job, and maybe even a little better than that. Melky Cabrera is hitting .276 and has reached base safely in his last 20 games. Is it any wonder why Yankee interest in Abreu has cooled?

--- Not that Pat Gillick needs another reason to be a seller at the deadline, but Atlanta’s recent surge should be the straw that broke the camel’s back. Baseball's great procrastinators have won seven in a row to jump two games ahead of the Phils and four back of the Wild Card lead. History is on Atlanta’s side to make a mid-season run and return to the postseason. Talk about a dangerous team at this stage of the season.

--- A fierce storm with 70 mph winds knocked out power at Beerleaguer headquarters from 7 p.m. to 1 a.m., so there wasn’t an in-game discussion thread and I missed the game. The morning highlights revealed more bad signs for "winningest" Phillies pitcher Ryan Madson, who gave up two runs in the first inning and was exposed for four runs in the sixth. Judging from the highlights, hitters were waiting on his change.

--- Even worse was Arthur Rhodes, which is the player Madson should probably replace in the bullpen next season. Rhodes loaded the bases and then imploded. When talking about giving young players a chance, there’s no better place to start than in bullpen, where fossils like Rhodes (6.07 ERA) should be pushed aside for the younger stable of bullpen arms in Triple-A. Time to jumpstart the future in the bullpen, too, so they aren’t forced to blindly overspend on veteran middle relief like the rest of baseball.

--- On the bright side, Chase Utley extended his hitting streak to 20 games.

--- According to the Detroit News, the Tigers are back in the Abreu sweepstakes. The deal is rumored to include outfielder Marcus Thames and pitcher Zach Miner.

--- Pat Burrell won’t include last night’s game on his personal highlight reel. Burrell went 0-5 and butchered a couple balls in the outfield. At the end of the season, Burrell will have some very good offensive numbers, probably 35 homers and over 100 RBIs. I have to believe Burrell will be more attractive to teams in the offseason rather than at the deadline. When teams were reportedly scouting Burrell a few weeks ago, that's when he looked the worst. The rub on Burrell is that his numbers ring shallow, but typically, perceptions like those fade once the season concludes and stat sheets are all that’s left.

--- Tom Goodman of Swing and a Miss opened up a discussion on MLB realignment yesterday. I weighed in with my thoughts for a four-division league that would adopt an NFL-style playoff format. The Phillies would be in the AL East with the Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, Nationals, Baltimore and the Blue Jays, though one poster made a good point that Toronto should be swapped with the Braves.

Comments

[Tim]

i do the thames, minor deal in a heartbeat. thames/dellucci/victorino is a fine replacement for bobby, and the money could go right into a fa pitcher.

[Jon]

I like the Tiger deal too. I just hope Abreu doesn't throw a wrench into this, or any potential trade with some ridiculous contract demand. I can see him possibly wanting the extra year picked up, but the idea that he wants something done through 2011 is flat-out crazy.

[J. Weitzel]

Abreu should definitely demand some compensation to waive his no-trade. Why shouldn't he? Ed Wade was foolish enough to give all this leverage back to the players. It's like the perfect final chapter for the book on how not to run a baseball team.

[joe]

>It's like the perfect final chapter for the
>book on how not to run a baseball team.

I thought that the Cubs were writing that one...

[Patrick]

Well your realignment idea sounds terrible, but everything else was good. How about they just move the Pirates back to the NL East where they should be, move the Marlins out west and put them in the AL West. That way the divisions are balanced and old rivalries are rekindled. The Pirates and Phils games would be a huge draw (seriously, think about the fanbases for each) and you could very easily add a team in the AL West and not upset anything. The fact that this hasn't already happened just befuddles me.

[ae]

Not to be contrarian, but I don't see that Tiger deal. Thames is pretty damn old for a guy with minimal ML experience, and his walk rate seems to have disappeared since the 2001 AA season. Sure, he's hitting .330/.340 in AAA, but A) he's 28 and B) he's losing 50 points off that average in the majors with an average walk rate. I see Dellucci without the OBP. And Miner seems like a decent prospect (nothing to dismiss given our threadbare minors) but hardly someone to make you sit up and notice.

And the point's been made by others, but exactly what FA pitcher are you going to spend your money on?

[Matt]

Patrick -

Considering that teams play their intra-division rivals 18 or 19 times a year is probably why Florida is not in a western division. Can you imagine the travel headaches that would cause?

[Jon]

Abreu can demand it, but its in his best interest not to piss off the Philly fans anymore than he already has. If he thinks things are bad now, just wait til he refuses a trade and the fans get on him even more, that is if they even bother to show up.

I hate Ed Wade.

[MG]

Few thoughts on last night's game,

-Madson stinks as a starter. I don't care if he wins 12 games this season as a starter. He doesn't have one dominating pitch and people just sit on his offspead stuff. He might be ok if he could locate but his pitches are usually 6 inches from where Lieberthal sets up.

-Lieberthal is my nomination for LVP (Least Valuable Player). Lieberthal is stealing money this season. While he may have been injured this season, he certainly made no rush to come back. Additionally, Lieberthal has been awful both offensively and defensively. Hell, Fasano has played better than Lieberthal. I cringe more even when Lieberthal comes up to the plate than Bell.

-Hopefully Gillick moves Rhodes at the trading deadline. Even if you get nothing in return, you open a spot for T-AAA guy to see if he can show something for next season.

[MG]

Could a one-legged man beat Lieberthal down to first base? I bet he could.

[Jon]

You could make the argument that the Marlins may very well be in Las Vegas or Portland in the near future. However, I prefer the Florida teams to be dissolved if we could adopt Weitzel's realignment idea posted on Swing And A Miss. Glad you liked my Atlanta and Toronto swap. Too bad we cannot make it all happen.

[Tim]

ae - my list of fa pitchers to go after is as follows: zito/smolt/buerhle/mulder. add 2nd tier guys like ted lilly, mussina and jason schmidt and this is as deep a fa pitching class as i can remember. bobby's 17 milliion gets you any one of those guys. if i could trade burrell and abreu and get 2 the first tier guys, we'd be in the playoff hunt next year - guaranteed.

[Ed]

1. I hate the Thames/Miner package. There's a reason why Thames is 29 and just starting in the MLB... his season reeks of one of those "outlier" seasons (Abraham Nunez, anyone?). And Miner just isn't enough for me.

2. Aside from Zito, none of those FA pitchers listed by Tim are interesting to me. For some reason, I don't think our Phillies are just one old SP away from the playoffs.

[Jon]

No offense Ed, but it is absolutely crazy to compare Thames to Nunez.

[MG]

Ed - Phils need more than 1 SP. They only have one reliable starter right now in Myers. After that . . . ?

[J. Weitzel]

I'm skeptical of the Tigers deal myself for the reasons mentioned above. Everyone knows they need pitching prospects, but man I'd love to see them get a young third baseman out of any deal involving Abreu.

[JB]

Ed - what is going to be enough for Abreu? What do you think the market for the guy is? I Know he's a quality player, but that contract does make him terribly valuable. If the Phils want to dump his salary you're going to get guys like Thames & Miner or Rodrigo Lopez. That's just the way it is.

[Tim]

i agree that the number one priority for abreu should be a mlb ready third baseman. i haven't heard one report that we were looking for one though. as for starters we have to get 2 of them for next year to have a shot at anything and that will take 10 to 15 million each if we can't get one in a trade. if dumping bobby for a bum pitcher is the only way we can do that, it's a shame, but i'm all for it.

[dajafi]

I hate that Tigers deal; it would really just be a salary dump. Thames would be an extreme case of "buying high," and Miner doesn't really impress me with his low K rate and middling minor-league track record.

And as we've recently wrote about at TGP, Wade absolutely screwed us with those FNTCs he handed out like Halloween candy. Given what teams will have to pay Abreu, we're very unlikely to get a trade that anyone will be happy with.

[Jon]

Maybe we could send Abreu to the Angels for someone like Dallas McPherson or Howie Kendrick. Both could play some third base. The question is, would the Angels trade either of those players, especially when they seem more interested in Soriano.

[tim]

if we trade abreu for two so-so prospects (if that's all we can get) save $17 and put that money into pitching how are we worse off than we are right now?

[joe]

well, we wouldnt have the league leader in OBP anymore...

[Ed]

1. Thames - Nunez
Jon, I guess my point wasn't exactly that Thames and Nunez are identical players. Nunez has no power, Thames exhibits some power.

My point more was that in each case, we took (or would take) a year that was (1) exceptionally good for him and (2) came "late" in his career. Thames this year is at .295/.368/.641 in 220 AB. Great numbers? Yes. But his MLB totals, even WITH this year included, .253/.325/.512, in 578 AB. Good power, horrible OBP, pedestrian AVG. Moreover, 1 steal in 202 games. 153 Ks to 56 BBs. His minor league numbers are similarly inconclusive - some good years, some bad.

Similarly, Nunez - last year, he put up .285/.343/.361. True, no power, but good average, workable OBP. No steals, but 64 runs in 139 games... servicable for a platoon. But the rest of his career? A whole lotta .230/.300/.330 stuff.

And the kicker: Nunez last year was the same age as Thames this year.

Thames may be good. He's definitely better than Nunez. But I'm just not sold on him. But ppl are right, Abreu's contract is terrible, so what should we go for? That leads into...

2. What I'd like to see:
We don't need questionable outfielders.. we have Delucci, Burrell, Victorino, etc. What we need is a 3B. I just think that with all the teams that are inquiring about Abreu, we can do better. Zach Miner's minor league stats don't suggest that what we're seeing is for real. So... bottom line, I just think we could do better.

Sorry to cut this "short", have to run to a deposition.

[clout]

How can anyone like that proposed trade with the Tigers? Posters here are so desperate to dump Abreu, Burrell, Rowand etc. they don't care what kind of crap they get in return. Guess you want to see 5 more years of losing.

[Jon]

OK, you have convinced me that maybe the Tiger deal isn't the best one out there. I still don't think that Thames is that bad, but we could do better by getting someone higher rated than Miner.

I still hope something can get done to get Hughes from the Yankees. I would also like to get ahold of some of the young Boston pitching (Delcarmen and Hansen). Anyone know, does Boston still have Kelly Shoppach? He could be available if they keep Varitek behind the plate.

[Will]

they traded shoppach this past offseason i think.

[Will]

the worst thing that could've happened for the phillies was the Yankees getting hot. The yanks involved in a trade pulls up the price and urgency for everyone because they want to get the deal done before the yankee's infinite resources get going. Unfortunately, they're hot, so everyone will back down a bit.

They need to move Abreu now and Burrell in the offseason though. I wouldn't expect to see a MLB ready 3B come in till the offseason, b/c there's no way Manuel will give that player significant time at 3B over Bell.

[zach]

There's another proposed deal involving the Orioles; that is, Abreu or Burrell for Rodrigo Lopez and a mid-level prospect. Lopez has a 6.44 ERA and is 6-10. So for Abreu, that sucks. But if we can unload his salary this way, I think it could be a great deal for Burrell. Lopez's numbers are less than stellar but we do need starters, and how nice it would be if that money Burrell's eating up (and will eat up) could be put elsewhere.

[Tim]

shoppach is with cleveland now from the marte deal (he was the steal of that trade). clout - if moving bobby (even for next to nothing) brings zito, mulder or buerhle how is that wanting to lose for 5 years?

[ae]

I have a hard time believing:

A) The Phillies will be able to afford one of the A-list FA pitchers, even assuming Abreu is completely off the books. How do the Yankees/Red Sox/Mets/etc. not just push the price out of our reach? Any one of those teams, or a handful of others, could easily outbid us. Plus, everybody is always in the market for starting pitching. It's not like any of those teams are going to be satisfied with what they have.

B) A pitcher in their prime like Zito et al. would want to move to the unfriendly confines of CBP for consistently underperforming team that just unloaded their most reliable offensive performer and hasn't even been to the playoffs in more than a decade.

Not that I'm saying we should give up and resign ourselves to futility. But when you trade away a franchise player like Abreu, you need more back than "Well, maybe we can sign a pretty good pitcher in a few months if nobody else wants him."

[zach]

I agree. But I'm not sure what the Mets financial situation will be next year. I've been assuming that they blew so much cash this past offseason that they'd be mostly out of the big-spending game for a little.

[Patrick]

Matt-

When I said move the Marlins out to the AL West, I meant the term "move" literally.

[Bob D]

Why trade Abreu for mostly nothing? (Refer to the Padilla trade.) If we have Abreu next year, we have a valuable hitter to the line up. If he is traded the Phils should get at the least 2 top players/prospects. There are a lot of salaries coming off the roster next year (Wolf, Leiberthal, Lidle, Bell, etc..) So dumping salary is not necessary. Said earlier, Burrel maybe more valuable during the off season than now.

Don't just trade Abreu just to trade him.

[MG]

I would never trade Abreu for Lopez and a prospect. Lopez flat out stinks. Even Mazzone hasn't been able to get anything out of him. I would rather keep Lidle than get Lopez.

[ae]

the Abreu for Lopez and whatever's lying around the Baltimore clubhouse trade is pretty hilarious. I can't imagine even Ed Wade would be that dumb.

I especially like how the Sun justifies it - "but Lopez won 15 games twice!"

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