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« Midday update: Will the Phils succumb to injuries? | Main | Beerleaguer for breakfast: Chooch out of juice? »

Wednesday, August 01, 2007

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So much discussion on this already, but please, Lord, let this be the lineup:

Rollins SS
Iguchi 2B
Burrell LF
Howard 1B
Rowand CF
Coste C
Dobbs 3B
Roberson RF
Moyer P

Hopefully Moyer goes 7, Howard goes yard and the Phils win, right?

To top off last night's performance, Roberson hits for the cycle (the HR is a grand slam to put the Phils ahead) and pitches a perfect 9th.

Oh, I forgot: Roberson spends tonight nursing Madson, Bourn, Victorino, and Utley back to health. Tommorrow, he fixes Burrell's hitting for good, performs brain replacement surgery on Cholly (switches in Jim Leyland's noggin), and buys the team (first thing he does is rename the park Richie Ashburn Field and charges a nickel a beer).

dlhunter, you had me until that part about Roberson pitching the 9th.

JZ: Dobbs will not be starting at third against a left handed pitcher. He has 19 plate appearances all year against lefties. Expect to see Wes Helms starting at third tonight.

I expect this lineup:

Roberson
Iguchi
Rollins
Howard
Rowand
Burrell
Helms
Ruiz
Moyer

It's just a guess.

Julio Franco is available again... maybe he should end his career where it began!!! Can he play right field? Can he pitch?

With all the injuries and crappy pitching in baseball, it's a wonder we don't ever see an old-timer try to make a comeback after a few years off like they sometimes do in the NBA.

Surely, Nolan Ryan at 60 can still hit 70 on the gun, can't he? Moyer gets by with that every fifth night. Ryan looked good in those Advil commercials a few years ago and has to be better in short relief than some of the crap we've trotted out there.

I stand by my assertion that the key to this season (and last year's for that matter) hinges on an Ugi Urbina reconnaissance mission. Surely it can't be tough to bust into a Venezuelan prison. Besides, if it was such a crime to dump gasoline on and attempt to light your ranch workers on fire, half of the posters here would be doing time.

here's the lineup guys....

Roberson
Iguchi
Rollins
Howard
Rowand
Burrell
Ruiz
Nunez
Moyer

I was soooo close... I almost reposted suggesting Nunez may get the start since defense might actually make a difference with our bad lineup.

Unbelievable lineup.

Keep in mind Roberson's career minor league numbers are .278/.347/.388. Thats with being significantly older than his peers. And now we're giving him the most ABs out of anyone in the lineup.

He had one good game. ONE. Cholly has an incredibly stupid desire to put speed at the top of the lineup and sacrifice performance. That isn't how it should work... giving the most ABs in the game to a career minor leaguer, and a sh*tty one at that.

Dave X: Can't agree with you more. I made a prediction based on Manuel's likely stupidity... and I was almost dead on.

Makes sense to me. I especially like that he's giving Nunez the start over Helms.

haha... some scrub goes 4 for 4 so he's batting leadoff, but the best hitter in the majors for the last month can't move off the 6-hole.

To be fair, Burrell has a history of being a headcase and has absolutely thrived batting 6th after stinking anywhere else all year, so maybe Cholly doesn't want to mess with that. Personally though, at this point, I think we're desperate and our only real choice is to move him to the 3-hole and hope he keeps it up.

RSB: It makes sense that, perhaps, the worst bat on the team, save Werth and half of our pitchers, is in line to get the most plate appearances?

Again: this is about function. The Phillies want Burrell towards the back end up the lineup to be an RBI producer. At heart, this is still what his role for this team is.

Roberson is an improvement over Dobbs in the leadoff slot. So long as they're going with Rollins in the 3 hole, there aren't a lot of other good options. What he did at the plate yesterday is of more immediate relevance than what he did in the minors. If he takes the collar the next two games, you consider moving him back down.

They saw Roberson get on base every time up last night, CJ. I think that has something to do with it, don't you?

RSB: Huh? So it makes more sense to change the lineup based on Roberson's one game than to change the lineup based on Burrell's last month?

That makes sense?

CJ, if this is all about stacking the best hitters in order of stature, then you'd have Utley and Howard leading off every game. You set up a lineup according to players' specific functions and attributes. Slower hitters generally hit lower in the order, faster hitters are towards the top. Burrell bats sixth because they want him to drive in hitters who are better able to get around the bases. His performance over the last month does not change where he is best suited to hit in this lineup.

rsb, i agree with you. give roberson a day or two to see if they can catch a streak, or if chris managed to turn a corner this time.

this lineup has the same "feel" to it as a bourn/vic leadoff. its similar to the lineup they've been successful with, you may as well try it once or twice.

if roberson stinks the joint out, shake it up again. but this is a very reasonable lineup, given the circumstances.

RSB: "His performance over the last month does not change where he is best suited to hit in this lineup."

I agree. It's not just his performance. It's that we now have a lineup with Vic or Utley. That's why Burrell should be moved up.

Instead, a guy with a career .195 BA coming into the season is set up to get the most ABs. That can only make sense in the mind of Charlie Manuel.

If a guy's spot is a function of what he offers, why isn't it:

Rollins
Iguchi
Burrell/Rowand
Howard
Burrell/Rowand
3B
C
Roberson

er... that should say WITHOUT Vic or Utley.

I'm not all that offended by putting Roberson in the leadoff spot. I've never really thought that Roberson is as bad as everyone has made him out to be. He has never gotten a meaningful chance at the major league level but, until this year, he had hit .290 or higher 3 years in a row at the minor league level.

Don't get me wrong. I'm not suggesting that Roberson is some kind of long-term answer in the OF. He lacks power, doesn't draw walks, and, at 28 years old, is as good as he's ever going to be. But he's got some speed, plays decent defense, & I believe, could hit around .280 at the major league level. Those qualities make him good enough to be a passable No. 5 outfielder. And, as long as he has the hot hand, he's more qualified to hit leadoff than anyone in the starting lineup except Rollins.

There, Alby. That was a postive post about a Phillies' player (perhaps even an unrealistically positive one). See, I can have bursts of optimism now and then.

BAP: "And, as long as he has the hot hand"

And Burrell's hand languishes in the 6 hole? That's why it makes no sense to me. Why a guy who's on a "torrid" 4-4 stretch gets moved up while a guy on a "cold" 1.300 OPS month-long streak is left at six is beyond me.

More on Roberson. His stock has obviously fallen greatly over the last 2 years, but a couple of years ago, he was regarded very much the same way we regard Michael Bourn right now -- except better. If you do a Google search for Chris Roberson's name, you'll get a few hits for scouting reports from 2004 & 2005, which put him among the top 25 prospects in all of minor league baseball. I hold out hope that last night's effort wasn't a total fluke & that he can stay hot for a couple of weeks until Victorino gets back.

BAP: Here's hoping you and Charlie are right! :-)

roberson may be playing with a chip on his shoulder. this is a chance that he prbly didn't think that he would ever get again. not behind rowand, burrell, vic, bourn and werth.

I'd move Burrell up in the lineup if only because I have more faith that he'll walk with two on and two out than knock those runners home with a hit.

Walking with the three, four, or five hole hitter coming up next is a lot more palatable to me than forcing the guy batting seventh into the role of "run producer."

BAP, I agree on Roberson. I thought he was in a position to help the Phils last year, and even infamously suggested before the beginning of '06 that he might have been a more valuable player than Burrell over a full season if his minor league performance projected to the major league level. Well, he made me look ridiculous by tanking the way he did, but I still think that he could be moderately useful if he can hit at a decent clip. Other than his age, he isn't all that different from Michael Bourn (not quite as fast, but who is?). I'm rooting for him to continue the good impression.

I have a bad feeling about tonight, rich hill is a above average pitcher and he is a lefty, Ryan Howard hasn't looked good lately, I think he is pressing to much because all of the weight is on his shoulders.

Ichiro Jr. aka slap hitter Nunez is playing so thats an automatic out each time he is up!

I think, RSB, the reason you get so much vitriol, as you (justifiably) call it, flung in your direction is your habit of clinging to positions that fly in the face of logic in spite of numerous well-reasoned demonstrations of why they're wrong. Since when are lineups entirely decided on the basis of speed and what a player's role is "at heart" (which seems to depend entirely on whatever's in your heart, or head)? Doesn't being able to get on base matter too? And if a player ceases to fulfill what his role is, "at heart," and start playing such that he could fill another role much better, though it might not be the true role that he was born in his heart of hearts to fill, doesn't it make sense to use him in that role?

CJ: From this morning's thread, I think I'm on record as agreeing with you that Burrell should bat third in Utley's absence. If I got to write the lineup card, I'd bat Rollins first, Burrell third & Roberson 7th or 8th. But the precise statement in my Roberson post was "I'm not all that offended" by batting Roberson leadoff. That means what it means. Whether Burrell should be batting 3rd or 6th is a completely separate issue.

CJ: Oops. I meant Helms but not really. I just prefer Dobbs over the other two, as we nicely argued about a week or so ago. Plus, I thought Dobbs was the team's new everyday leadoff hitter so I figured Cholly would hit him seventh.

Follow the logic? Good. Me, neither.

Roberson rooools... speeed kills... Charlie is a genius!

i'm starting to like this iguchi fellow. can he play 3rd?

Howard looks completely lost.

Totally off-topic: Freaky interstate bridge collapse in Minneapolis. Looks like the Nimitz freeway after the World Series earthquake in San Francisco.

Damn it, Ryan. That was just an embarrassing at-bat.

WOW, no confidence right no in MR HOWARD

Okay, so now Pat Burrell is going to responsible for carrying this offense? That's where we're at now?

Worst thing about losing Utley is losing Howard too.

don't strand them....don't strand them....

wild pitches may be our only hope this evening!

keep em comin Hill.

curt u are exactly right, he is swinging at every pitch because he thinks he has to "carry" the team but thats not the case at all...next at bat i want to see a walk or a hit the other way, get him more comfortable up there

Tray, I didn't say that lineups are 'entirely' decided on the basis of speed. But generally, that is how it's always been, and there's good reason for it. On-base ability is equally as important, but not necessarily more important as the ability to get *around* the bases, and this is a point which is consistently glossed over by people on this site. Yes, Burrell has partially reinvented himself as an on-base machine, but until and unless Burrell completely loses his ability to drive in runs, he is better suited to fulfilling the latter role and hitting fifth or sixth. Please take care to note that though this position may 'fly in the face' of YOUR particular logic, yours is not the only logic which exists on the planet. There is more than one way of looking at it.

Be prepared...Howard is in one of his funks again. I hope he snaps out of it soon and proves me wrong, but he's looked horrible since the Pittsburgh series.

Charity! My favorite form of Phillies offense!

PtBB!

Also, I would like to (sincerely) thank the White Sox for trading us a lesser version of Placido Polanco. Iguchi's been nothing but a blessing so far.

Wow, what a pathetic start.

Howard going cold at the wrong time. We need him more than ever, but the big man is coming up very small lately.

Well, someone better get in Howard's ear and remind him where the strike zone is.

Bases loaded and no out with the cleanup hitting at bat? And we get one charity run out of it? Ugh. Here's hoping Hill is wild all night.

Brewers up 3-0 on the Mets.

Moyer may be in trouble. Tight zone.

Howard's consistently swung at 80% of the strikes he sees over his career... and makes contact 64% of the time he swings.

Burrell makes contact 80% of the time he swings and swings at 65% of strikes.

Strange little oddity there.

Up is down. Nunez on base.

good play

Nunez should have been at 2nd.

4-3 mets now!!! crap....phillies aren't playing well so far, they have to do the little things to win....scoring on a wild pitch on the first with bases loaded and 0 outs isn't the way to win!

this really doesn't feel like it's going to be a good night

An RBI single by the pitcher hitting .108? Ugh.

Now, come on, that hit by Soriano is just ridiculous. How does he pull that (other than the pitch being 45mph)?

Big double play there. C'mon fellas let's get a couple runs this inning.

That was a huge break. Looked like on of those innings where the Cubs were going to get a few breaks and string together a few runs.

If it weren't for Eaton (and Garcia to some extent), Moyer would be the most hated Phillies SP. He is what he is - a pitcher with a 5 ERA. Not that kind of pitcher you want on a winning ballclub. Another lousy Gillick signing.

Milwaukee is up 5-4! Go Brew Crew!

slackerjoe- I respectfully disagree. I think Moyer does more good than harm on our team. He can be credited with the (relative) success of all the young arms on this team. He's basically a coach who pitches every 5 days. God knows we need a better pitching coach than Dubee.

Ryan's post-Utley slump is getting ugly--
3-19, with 11 k's and just 1 ribbie

Slacker: You're right about that. Our horrible starting rotation has skewed the fans' expectations so much that we actually talk about Moyer as if he's some sort of front-line starter. On a normal pitching staff, Moyer is the No. 5 starter who gets skipped over after the team has a couple of off days. But, on our staff, he's as important as Tim Hudson is to the Braves' rotation.

Disagree about Moyer. He has put ok numbers for a 4th or 5th starter and has given the Phils a chance to win more often than not this year. I just wish that Eaton had pitched as well as Moyer has this year at times.

You basically have a staff right now with a legit No. 1 (Hamels) and a potentially four No. 5 starters. That is why I thought the Phils wouldn't make the playoffs even prior to Utley's injury.

Well, I hear Paul Abbott's available.

Its not Moyer's fault that the team has come to rely on him as a number three starter. I'm sure he'd gladly be the number five man on a better staff.

That said, he really needs to step it up tonight.

He'll be lucky to make it out of the 5th at this rate.

Moyer is getting tattooed tonight and getting squeezed at the plate (especially down low). Somehow the Cubs have only scored 2 runs but I would be shocked if Moyer goes more than 5 tonight.

almost Real Deal time

Time to go to the gym. When Cedeno and the pitcher have RBI base hits you know it is not your night.

I'd be thrilled if Moyer was our #5 guy. Unfortunately, well, you know. This particular game is going to need an offensive outburst from the Phils. No way we win this game with less than six or seven runs.

My new favorite team is Whomever The Mets Play (and seriously, what the hell is going on in that Brewers/Mets game?!?)

CJ - About your comment on Julio Franco...You probably missed it with the trading deadline, but I believe he was included in the Kevin Garnett package yesterday.

Intentionally walking Kendall - I don't like it.

I WANT COOLER PANTS DURBIN

I'm watching Gameday.. can anyone explain how one "doubles on a pop-up to the shortstop Jimmy Rollins"

Hunter: I have no doubt that Moyer knows a great deal about pitching, but all this credit he gets as a teacher is just part of the folklore surrounding him. The Phillies happily promote this folklore because it gives cover for their incomprehensible decision to give a 2-year contract to a 45-year old pitcher who throws 80 MPH. And the fans eat it up. When a young pitcher does well for us, it's Jamie Moyer who gets the credit. When a pitcher does badly for us, it's Rich Dubee who gets the blame.

Seriously, exactly how do any of us know what role Moyer plays in Kyle Kendrick & Cole Hamels' success? And exactly how do any of us know that it's Rich Dubee who is holding these guys back & Moyer who is bringing them forward? And how come Moyer hasn't passed on all his knowledge to guys like Adam Eaton and Geoff Geary?

I have no doubt that Moyer has some valuable insights to pass on to our young pitchers, but that is NOT a valid justification for keeping him in the starting rotation next year. If his insights are that valuable, make him a pitching coach.

chicago announcers were just discussing how kendall has been hot lately. .375 in his last seven

I'm watching Gameday here. How did Jacque Jones double on a pop up to Rollins?

unfortunately for him jason kendall has looked like jason kendall for his past ... well all of his games

Jones hit a shallow pop up that landed in no man's land near the right field line. Nunez, Burrell, and Rollins were all going after it.

Definitely not Moyer's night.

Conine? Anyone?

I'm sooooooo glad we have Roberson in that spot. I mean, who else should get more at bats than anyone else in the lineup?

Once again, Burrell's good at bat is wasted.

Roberson leading off... what a joke.

How can Roberson do this to me?

yeah, they've got to move Rollins back to that leadoff spot.

Its insane that Burrell is so damn mentally fragile that they won't move him up in the lineup even with all these injuries.

Can we all agree the Roberson experiment was a huge mistake? Stick back where he belongs... as low in the order as possible. He's a minor league outfielder. Nothing more.

hey guys - remember when our lineup was totally badass?

What a suprise, Burrell hits again.

Thats his 17th 2-sacker. 23% of his 73 hits have been doubles.

He hits 2Bs and 3Bs at a higher rate than Victorino and Bourn. Despite the fact that he has no 3Bs, and Vic and Bourn apparently have some magical ability to stretch singles into doubles. (They do have more SBs, but that's not what I'm getting at.)

For all the fuss about his speed, or lack thereof, you'd think he would be strictly a singles hitter. I'll take hitting ability and strike zone judgement over speed any day.

As long as Howard is an easy out, it doesn't much matter what anyone else in this lineup is doing - there's not enough punch left to score the 5 runs our pitchers require.

CJ: We're not losing these games because of Roberson. We're losing them because of hideous pitching & inept hitting from the 3-4-5 guys in our order. When you load the bases with no outs & the only run you score is on a WP, your offense isn't getting it done. And the fault doesn't lie with the injury replacements.

CJ: "Can we all agree the Roberson experiment was a huge mistake?"

Dude, I know I'm often guilty of hyperbole. But I don't think I've ever made a statement quite this hyperbolic. This "experiment" has consisted of 7 ABs -- in which he has managed to get 4 hits and reach base 5 times. The guy screws up in one AB and you're ready to declare his promotion a "huge mistake?"

oh jesus. gary matthews just joined the chicago booth. I thought I had escaped his inanity

bap -

its not even a "screwup", at least he put the ball in play, which is more than I can say about howard.

if you put wood on the ball, good things happen.

C'mon lets get a rally going! (Apparently if you have a good night hitting, Charlie will move you up in the lineup, but if you're name is Pat Burrell and you've been on fire for weeks, you're still going to be hitting sixth.)

Well I'm so glad Burrell is batting sixth where he belongs, we were really able to take advantage of his walk and double.

Hey now! Howard with a RBI and...awww, crap!

Psych!

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