Beerleaguer for breakfast: Phan deciphers staff ERA

Our analysis of the night came from bay_area_phan, who exposes deeper meaning behind the numbers generate by the starting rotation and bullpen. He writes ...

“So our starters are pitching deeper into games than all but two teams in the NL, yet four of our starters have park adjusted ERAs below league average, while our bullpen has the league's best ERA. One way to interpret this info. is that our starting pitchers, though not very good, are reasonably reliable in avoiding the total meltdown and keeping us in games. Another way to interpret it is that our starters are doing an overall decent job, but their ERAs are being hurt at the end of their outings by relievers who are allowing too many inherited runners to score (thus resulting in ERAs which overstate the effectiveness of our bullpen and understate the effectiveness of our starters). A third way to interpret the info. is that the reason our bullpen has been so effective is because the starters have pitched deep into games, and prevented our bullpen from being overworked. And still another way to interpret the info. is that our stating pitchers stink, and the only reason they're pitching deep into games is because our manager systematically leaves them in too long, when he would be better off calling on the league's best bullpen. A plausible case can be made that any or all of these interpretations are true, to some extent.”

Comments

[MG]

From the last thread:

- Madson threw well last night continuing his string of decent outings this month. Maxed out with the fastball at 95 and was throwing some really nice offspeed stuff at 82/83 that started in the zone/fell out of it.

Cholly has started using Madson in high-leverage options this past month and he has been coming through.

- While this bullpen has been amazing, it is likely not to last. The peripheral numbers (K/9, K/BB, WHIP) show that this is a good pen but not a great pen. I am also pretty dubious on Seanez and C. Durbin continuing to pitch this well as June rolls around.

[emerson]

I'm not sure there are any ways to massage those numbers and come up with anything other than - 'we have a below average starting rotation.' But it's obvious that the pen and the offense are above average. Not the standard way a playoff team is built, but it's the route we're taking.

[Lake Fred]

I believe the starters suck, but are left longer into games because the hitters give them more runs to work with than other teams.

Rox Mgr. Clint Hurdle has contracted the services of Sammy and Dean Winchester of Supernatural to hunt down the demon the Rox made the deal with to get into the WS. Hurdle wants to break the contract with the Devil. The final wooden stake into the heart of the Rox was given tonight when Adam Eaton gets his first victory of the season.

Seven games over .500 was achieved by the 2007 Phillies on July 30th! We are way ahead of schedule.

[Steve Jeltz]

MG: Has Madson really been used in more high leverage situations latey? It hasn't seemed like that to me. He came into the game last night with with a 6-1 lead.

[NEPhilliesPhan]

Madson hasn't pitched in any high-leverage situations this season...if he has it was only because the Romero-Gordon-Lidge combo needed the night off due to overuse. Madson disappointed me because he had such a great rookie campaign and he raised expectations to a level that he couldn't sustain and now he looks like a failure because of it.

On the above article: So we have below average pitching and a decent Pen...yup already knew that.

[Lake Fred]

It appears to me that Mad Dog is the long man to pitch in one sided games to give the Flash, Lidge and Romero some rest.

[ill]

Everyone is saying they are "worried" about Myers, moreso than they are about Eaton, but I have to disagree. It is not so much a worry as it is disheartening. We all expected so much more from him than what we have seen so far this season, but I don't think I have put it out of the question that he returns to form.

[Wes Chamberlain]

Myers has been a big disappointment so far. It seems that his problem has been mostly an attitude/preparation thing. If he comes through with a big win tomorrow night, that could go a long way to improving his attitude and getting him back on track. I think that it is more likely that he could go 6-2 in his next 11 starts, than it would be that he will go 2-6 again (not that I think he WILL go 6-2.
I think Myers will get himself straightened out from now till the All-Star break. Which will then set him up to have a good second half, which will be a very big boost for the rotation and team in general.

[NEPhilliesPhan]

I'm worried because we DON'T have enough pitching for a playoff run. We can easily make the playoffs with this staff but after Hamels starts Game 1...its a crapshoot for who should start Game 2.

[Josh]

Isn't the obvious missing interpretation that our starting pitching can go deep into games while giving up above-average ERAs because the offense scores so much? You can afford to give up 4 in 6 IP if the bats are giving you 8.

[bay_area_phan]

LF/Josh: I didn't think of that one, but good point.

[Lake Fred]

Game 2, Moyer, Game 3 KK.

[Bedrosian's Beard]

That's a pretty fearsome playoff pitching lineup!

[AWH the RBP]

After bap posted his comment on the last thread, I went and looked at the team's record in each SP's starts.

Betcha can't guess which SP's starts have led to the worst TEAM record during those starts:

Our friend Brett Allen Myers.

The team's record during their appearances:

Hamels 8-3
Kendrick 8-3
Moyer 7-4
Eaton 5-6
Myers 3-8

Run support, or course, has something to do with the above.

However, if Myers had lived up to his advanced billing, paycheck and considerable ego so far this season, the team would, IMO, be 2-4 games in first place right now.

That's why it's so important for the Phillies' chief headcase to turn things around.

[vegas]

Josh: On that note, now is the right time to bring up starting pitching from the minors and test thier skill in the big leagues. The team is putting up runs and bullpen is confident. Make the move now before our hand is forced with a inevitable rotation injury.

[Sophist]

AWH, I posted each pitchers RS/G in the game chat when people were getting on Eaton about the lack of wins. Before last night, he was getting less than 4 a game. That's in contrast to, say, Moyer who was getting over 7.

Starters Run Support/G NL

1 CHC 5.97
2 NYN 5.94
3 ARI 5.82
4 PHI 5.57

Phils Starters RS (I got this from ESPN.com; no idea how they arrived at it, but I think they might add up the runs in their starts and make it /9)

Moyer 8.33
Kendrick 7.18
Hamels 4.48
Eaton 4.40
Myers 3.86

[NEPhilliesPhan]

Does anyone else think there's a subconscious belief by the Phillies hitters that Kendrick needs all the runs he can get and thus they mash the ball everytime he starts?

[doubleh]

You would think that subconsciously they would think the same thing every time Eaton took the mound as well...

[Mark]

If accurate, it isn't the whole story, but intepretation 2 accords with what I think I've observed--that the bullpen seems to allow a significant percentage of inherited runners to score. Does anyone--Sophist?--have a statistic comparing the Phillies's effectiveness in stranding runners with the effectiveness of other bullpens around the league?