Breaking news: Outman, Castro headed to the pen

Ryan Howard’s game-winning blast helped lift the Phils to a series win, but the big news this morning involves two prospects headed to the bullpen to prepare for a possible call-up. [Link]

Mike Drago of the Reading Eagle has reported that the Phillies front office has mandated a major shakeup involving two top left-handers in the farm system. Fabio Castro, 23, who started the season as a starter, will return to the bullpen, but the big surprise is 23-year-old Josh Outman, considered one of the top starting pitching prospects in the chain, is moving to the pen.

“They feel like the need in the major leagues (right now) is for a left-handed reliever,” minor league pitching coordinator Gorman Heimueller told Drago. “I think he (Outman) suits that (role). I have no doubt that he’s got the stuff to do it.” Drago mentions mid-June as a possible arrival date in Philadelphia.

This season, Outman was 1-2 with a 3.16 ERA and 32/15 K/BB ratio in five starts (25.2 IP). Castro is 3-0 with a 2.96 ERA and 27/15 K/BB ratio in five starts (27.1 IP).

Beerleaguer: Bold move, and maybe the right one. First, this means Steve Kline is washed up. Second, it’s time to stop thinking of the bullpen as purgatory when the J.C. Romeros of the world receive long-term, guaranteed contracts. The Phils have paid a huge price for effective relief pitching over the years, while unsuccessfully experimenting with marginal talent.

You have to respect the initiative here, to put service time aside and address the issue from the inside with someone who can actually miss a few bats. So here’s Outman, with a good fastball, a slide pitch and a change. You think maybe he has the stuff to be a successful, bottom-of-the-rotation starter, but you wonder whether he can pitch deep into games, does he have enough pitches, and would a bullpen assignment maximize his talent even more? And who's to say his book is closed as a starter?

A call-up would provide on-the-job training next to guys like Jamie Moyer and Cole Hamels, and it addresses an area of need, too. Romero has primarily been used as a set-up man. As long as the high-leverage relievers stay healthy, it’s an ideal situation to groom someone like Outman. The same goes for Castro, whose future was in the pen all along.

Bastardo promoted: Meanwhile, left-hander Antonio Bastardo has been promoted from Class-A Clearwater to Double-A Reading, according to an R-Phils news release. Bastardo, 22, leads all Minor League pitchers with 47 strikeouts.

Comments

[Matt]

threadjack

Is it just me, or are those T-Mac interludes during the game incredibly annoying? A struggling Ryan Howard hits a game-winning home run in the bottom of the 8th inning and I don't get to listen to Harry Kalas call it? This isn't the first time one of these things has interrupted a huge play in the middle of a game.

/threadjack

[The Theory]

Castro- yes. Outman surprises me. But I don't have any opinion on it being a good or bad move.

Anyway, what brought me to beerleaguer at 9:37 in the morning was a funny little coincidence I wanted to relate. I was on another message board where the discussion was about cheap booze. Not a discussion that I have a lot of input in (as I don't drink often, but when I do high-priced microbrews is my poison of choice) but when I do drink cheap it is hard to beat Lionshead at between $10 and $12 a case... and it has much more personality than the mainstream micros. To add a visual to my post I google-image-searched Lionshead Beer and on the first line of the first page was an interesting little graphic with the bottle and a price. I clicked into it to see how it looked at full size. The image then failed to open into its own window, so I scanned the blog post to find the image that way. I was very surprised to find, in the process of my scanning, a mention of beerleaguer. So I took a bit more time to carefully examine what the heck I was reading... it was GM Carsons' blog, and the article was an interview with Jason, the fine proprietor of this fine blog. I was quite amused at the coincidence.

[Andy]

Someone brought up Domincan 16 yr old phenom, Michel Inoa on the last thread. Here's what a Spanish language source had to say on his session with the Astros scouts. It's been translated for your benefit by Google translator:

Santiago. Michael Inoa, the young phenomenon pitcheo native of Puerto Plata, filled the expectations of dozens of scouts and executives of Major League teams who went to see him act in three innings in a game exhibition organized by the academy and Luis Born To Play Poland , To introduce a group of leaflets quoted for baseball.

Inoa marked 93 mph on the radar of experts searching for baseball talent mayor, who is admired to youth, speed and height of the prospectus.

Rafael Avila, the Dodgers, an expert of the business that had to do in signing pitchers like Pedro Martínez, Ramon Martinez and Alejandro Pena, among others, praised the incredible coordination of the couple, taking into account his youth and stature.

"This type of launcher has coordination problems and he looks in command of the situation," he said.

Okay. I admit: I only printed that because of the bizarre translation.

I just wish we could get us some good launchers.

[sdphillie]

Just wanted to point out that our hitting wasn't what it was compared to last year at this time, and thankfully, neither is our pitching.

Stable? Our bullpen? Who woulda thunk it?

[The Theory]

oh, and chalk me up as being in agreement with Matt. I, too, noticed that and was rather annoyed. (Not that I'm a fan of any of the current broadcasting staff's home run calls... some of them are just stupid. Though Kalas is the best of the lot).

[clout]

Not to put a damper on things but there's no way either Castro or Outman can help unless they get their BB/9 ratios down. If you're walking 15 guys in 27 IP in AA, you'll be walking 20 guys in 27 IP in The Show. Or you'll be getting lit up. Hopefully, their control will improve as the season continues.

[Andy]

On the Outman thing (since it is not news at all that Castro's only possible MLB future is in the pen): There is an extra possibility. Maybe, after watching the Yanks carefully develop Chamberlain, the Phils think that, even if long term they want him to start, the best way for Outman to get up to speed is if he's begun in the BP. A few spot starts, eventually, working his total IP gradually up.

OTOH: If he's still not dominating, even with a revised wind-up, at his age in his league, well, maybe he's not meant to be a starter after all. I wonder what this will do to Alden's (and others') big rotation plans (Hamels, Carrasco, Outman, Drabek, Whomever).

Just as importantly, I'd love to be the fly on the wall listening in to what they're thinking about doing with Tony Bastard right now.

[J. Weitzel]

Clout: Agreed. Hopefully the move to the pen would actually help in that regard. Both of them have pretty live arms, so you hope maybe they can simply mix it up with strikes. I've only seen Outman once. He seems to be pretty deceptive, as advertised.

[joe]

Lionshead is good stuff for the price. It's taken over the place of Yuengling Lager as prefferred cheap beer.

because - lager aint cheap no more... darn coal crackers getting full of themselves...

[Lake Fred]

It's great to be in first place! End the season right now.

At the last thread, there were these great stats about our bullpen. This thread header has our best farm hand starters being converted to starters! Go figure. When Moyers retires, where's the farm team starter prospect to replace him?.....in the bullpen!

[Bedrosian's Beard]

Not surprised with Castro, but Outman took me a little off guard. Worth a shot.

Andy: Not a bad thought: re Chamberlain/Outman. I know you're not saying Outman is as good as Chamberlain, but the Yankers were probably smart doing what they're doing with him .

[denny b.]

When Moyers retires, where's the farm team starter prospect to replace him?.....in the bullpen!

No, that guy might be languishing for the worst AAA team in baseball history right now, and still has a chance to be an effective major league left-handed starter.

Outman has really good stuff, throws hard, but is smallish and might be better suited to pitch in smaller doses. I worry what this move may do to his arm this year, but we will see. His major league future, is likely as a late inning reliever.

[denny b.]

A couple of other bullpen guys, pitching very well in the system, are Swindell and Overholt at Reading.

Anybody know what folks think about Overholt? I know he used to be a starter and was fairly well thought of (he was in that group with Carrasco, Outman, Carpenter coming up through the chain) and was moved to the closer role either last year or this year. He seems to be pitching very well in that role and has put up great numbers this year. Maybe he is someone to keep an eye on down the road (2009???) to be a potential bullpen option.

With Castro, Swindell, Outman and Overholt, that will give Reading an awfully good pen. Too bad, the starting staff beyond Carrasco and Carpenter, is so thin now.

[martin]

denny b, On the Reading Phil's website is a story by local writer Tony Zonca, who feels Overholt is underrated. Meanwhile, Shane Youman continues to pitch at Reading like he will soon be in the Indy Leagues

[J. Weitzel]

Bastardo was just promoted to Reading from Clearwater, per an R-Phils release.

[bay_area_phan]

As soon as I read the thing about Outman being moved to the pen, I figured Bastardo was about to be promoted to replace him. It will be very interesting to see how he does. The scouts seem pretty skeptical of him but, to this point, he has been the Phillies' most dominant minor league pitcher since Hamels. But there is a huge talent gap between A and AA.

[Gman]

Gillick was on with Jody Mac and said they see Outman's future as a reliever.

[Lake Fred]

Did you see the highlights of yesterday's Detroit-Yankees game. I must've seen 8 replays of Abreu pulling up as he got close to the wall failing to make the play. Just like old times!

[The Theory]

yeah, that Abreu replay made me grin on the inside.

[joe l]

Abreu (video link) play in question.

[metfan]

met fan here, but gotta give props to having pitchers named Out-Man and Bastard-o. That is just all kinds of awesome.

[Hugh Mulcahy]

Abreu looks as bad as ever tracking flies in the outfield. But, the 3 run dinger does much to offset his fear of walls.

[mike cunningham]

I'll be honest. The above story makes me feel like there is some sort of plan with the minor league system.

Also, that they are recognizing the lack of a second left hander in the bullpen has really handcuffed Manuel.

The lack of hard throwers in our bullpen has been a weakness for a few years. And if you can get some live arms... I'm all for it.

[Bonehead]

This is exciting. For a change, we have someone in the minors to keep tabs on who looks like they can help the big team in the near future. This hasn't been the case for a couple of years. Who has it been recently? Happ? Matt Smith? Gavin Floyd?

[MPN]

If we can develop at least one solid BP arm (preferably two) from within this year, I really wouldn't mind seeing us try to flip Madson to a team with dire relief pitching needs for a prospect or two, if possible.

[bay_area_phan]

I'm not sure I would characterize these moves as "exciting." The fact that we're moving one of our better starting pitching prospects to the bullpen says a great deal about our system's lack of bullpen depth. Both of these guys have decent stuff, but Castro is starting to run out of opportunities and Outman was absolutely horrendous when given a chance to show himself in spring training. He may well have a major league future as a reliever, but it isn't likely to be in 2008.

[Andy]

Bonehead - yup. And there're several. Bastardo is interesting. He's small, evidently, and was not expected to be spectacular. But he keeps posting some amazing peripherals. As he enters AA (right now) the rubber hits the road. If he can handle Reading, we may be looking at a fine LHP rather soon. If he gets squashed, OTOH, at least we were not expecting him to be the organizational savior.

[Denny Bones]

I agree on the the TMac interruptions. why can't we just have two guys on TV and two guys on the radio?

[Brian G]

Don't quite understand the interest so many have in trading Madson. He had a 3.0 era last year, when he finally got sent to the BP for good, and now he's in a role that suits him well, as a 6th/7th inning guy who can go a couple if needed. He's also relatively cheap and on a year by year commitment(look what Romero just cost) Are the marginal prospects we'd get for him worth more than the ability to not have to depend on Jose Mesa types in 2 run games in the 7th?

[Morty]

Thanks for the Abreu clip, just like old times.

In other funny news, Metsblog's NL East standings graphic has the Mets in 1st place with a 14-12 record, 1 game ahead of the Phils at 16-13. I guess, they are as skilled at math as they are at spelling and punctuation over there.

[J. Weitzel]

Derrick Turnbow DFA.

[clout]

Andy: That's exactly right. At age 22 Bastardo needs to show he can master AA. If he can't, then he's just another in a long, long line of guys who put up great numbers in Single A.

[clout]

Yeah, I'm sure glad we traded Abreu for C.J. Henry.

[Andy]

Morty - in some Mets/Bizarro Universe 14 - 12 is, indeed, a better record than 16 - 13. Moreover, in that universe, the Mets won the WS just by signing Santana. (The games are just for "entertainment.")

[Andy]

clout - surely you meant "Carlos Monasterios."

Right?

[Pride of Philly]

I am not sure who else was lobbying on Beerleaguer before the seaosn that we should have signed Dallas McPherson, but did everyone know that he has 10 HRs in the minors right now!

Oh and he is only 27 and making 425,000!

[CJ]

Re: Metsblog

They've also had their standings based on the number of losses a team has. I have no problem with that because as teams have played an uneven number of games, it's always best to measure a team on their losses than their wins.

[CJ]

Re: Metsblog

They've always had their standings based on the number of losses a team has. I have no problem with that because as teams have played an uneven number of games, it's always best to measure a team on their losses than their wins.

[Andy]

Pride:
The thing with McPherson is that in the 77 ABs in which he hit those 10 HRs:
he has only one other XBH (a double);
he's driven in just 19 runs;
he's struck out 36 times;
and he's grounded into 3 DPs.

If we pretend that the 10 HRs would extrapolate to 64 in 500 ABs, we can just as easily extrapolate 19 GiDPs and 233 Ks.

Just as importantly the two problems with signing him would have been 1) his injury history, which is not great and 2) he is a LHB, which would further exasperate the weaknesses of the Phils line-up (especially when coupled with his TTO tendencies).

That being said...he is just 27. He might have a decent season or two left in him. Maybe. If he can manage his .286 BA at the MLB level and stay uninjured.

[AWH the RBP]

I have a little bit of a different take on the Outman and Castro moves:

It's about the window of opportunity.

I think Gilegomery and Ruben Gillbuckle recognize that the window won't be open too much longer, and their going to need LH help. Maybe their even hoping (over clout's objection) that these two might help this year.

They're obviously not interested in Ray King.

In any event, unless they get another RH power bat (I'm assuming Burrell isn't extended) the window closes this year anyway, so who cares about the pitching?

BTW, what's their saviour Golson doing at Reading?

[johnnysanz3]

"Manager Charlie Manuel thinks that Feliz (.200) needs to be more aggressive at the plate, according to the Philadelphia Daily News. "I'd like to see him load up and be more aggressive in his load," Manuel said. "I've talked to him about that."

Don't know what that means but hopefully Charlie can help him somehow.

[Andy]

Pride:
The thing with McPherson is that in the 77 ABs in which he hit those 10 HRs:
he has only one other XBH (a double);
he's driven in just 19 runs;
he's struck out 36 times;
and he's grounded into 3 DPs.

If we pretend that the 10 HRs would extrapolate to 64 in 500 ABs, we can just as easily extrapolate 19 GiDPs and 233 Ks.

Just as importantly the two problems with signing him would have been 1) his injury history, which is not great and 2) he is a LHB, which would further exasperate the weaknesses of the Phils line-up (especially when coupled with his TTO tendencies).

That being said...he is just 27. He might have a decent season or two left in him. Maybe. If he can manage his .286 BA at the MLB level and stay uninjured.

[MG]

Double thumbs up for this move. Couple of points:

1. Finally, after over a year and half that Gillick acknowledges that this team needs more than a single lefty in the pen (especially in the NL East). Guess better late than never. Also, it is nice to see they didn't go the Ed Wade route and just automatically promote a guy like Kline just because he is "an established veteran" even though he hasn't shown much at Allentown so far.

2. Having Condrey in this bullpen right now serves no purpose. Cholly has recognized that he is an option of last resort and only utilizes him in garbage-time situations. If the Phils didn't have a long man like Durbin, then Condrey might have more of a role on this team. Phils though are better served with having another lefty arm out of the pen right now than Condrey.

3. Last year this bullpen was filled with guys who walked a ton of batters yet never struck out anyone either. Clout is right that Castro and Outman both have huge control issues that could make them a liability out of the pen. Still, Outman is a guy I just like a lot more out of the pen potentially (particularly for next year when the Phils are going to have a bunch of openings there).

[Andy]

Arrrrghgh
sorry about the double post.

[Andy]

"Feliz (.200) needs to be more aggressive at the plate"

It's not enough that his 3.22 P/PA is the lowest level he's accomplished in his career. Now he's gotta put that ball into play sooner! Let's see if he can get that number under 3 this year.

[AWH the RBP]

Never mind, I just checked. On the positive side he's hitting .314, but on the negative Golson has struck out 31 times in 105 AB (Ryno type numbers), with 8 BB. He also has only 2 HR.

Hmmmmmm.......yeah, he'll replace Burrell's production!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[mike cunningham]

@johnny -- not sure how swing first-pitch first-fastball isn't agressive. I would rather he be MORE patient. I listed out how successful he has been after getting ahead in the count, 1-0, 2-0, 3-0

Perhaps he means it's the type of swings he's getting when falling behind. To swing more agressively when behind in the count rather than defensively which leads to the high number of ground balls?

I'll trust Manuel on this one.

Man, I can't believe I keep saying that.

[Andy]

RBP - 8 BBs already is a marked improvement for the Golster. Less than a third of the season in he's already gotten more than a third of his A+ number.

[Andy]

mike - Just keep reminding yourself: you're not trusting Chollie, you're trusting his gut.

.

And few things are as formidable as Chollie's gut.

[AWH the RBP]

MG, I must disagree. Every team needs an innings eater who can pitch mop-up duty. condrey is fine in that role.

He has reverted to his pattern of last year. A really horrible outing which kills his ERA, surrounded by several outings where he is somewhat effective.

[MG]

Cholly on Feliz:

"I definitely think he could hit .270 or .280. He's got a good swing. I could see him being a good hitter."

This statement is pure idiocy for several reasons. Just completely disregaring his career numbers and the comletely obvious point that Feliz looks like a clown at times at the plate because of his tendency to pull every pitch, Feliz hasn't shown any inkling this year that he has is a good hitter.

Yeah, Feliz has been a little unlucky so far with his BABIP at .195. So many Feliz should be hitting .220 or .230 instead. Yeah. His % of LD is also ridiculously low too (13.1% of balls put in to play) and his rate of HR on fly balls is also really low (10%). So it means that when Feliz is making contact he isn't hitting the ball hard or driving it.

We can also expose the bogus praise for his explemary defense so far too. If you look at the conventional stats (errors, fielding pct) or the saber ones (RZR, OOZ), Feliz ranks as a decent but not great 3B so far this year in the NL.

This point about Cholly being a stubborn jacka$$ annoys me. He did it with Burrell last year too when it was clear that Burrell should have sat at least a week or two earlier than he did.

I am not advocating that Feliz should never start. He should start against LHP and occasionally against RHP but there is no reason that Feliz should be the everyday starter. None. Yet Cholly will continue to keep trotting him out there every day.

[AWH the RBP]

MG, excepting his bad outing in Cincy, he has a 2.69 ERA in the rest of his appearances. I know, I know... he loads the bases, inherited runners score sometimes, but he's a MOPUP guy.

[Andy]

RBP - often; IR score "often."

Actually, my feelings are a bit mixed. But mainly, if you have a guy on the staff just to be an innings eater, extra innings guy, mop-up, etc...then why not a lefty? We would not, necessarily, have to use JC as a LOOGY (as he was - successfully to my great surprise and foot-eating - last night). If one of he can get ready, I'm all for seeing the OutMan cometh.

[Bob]

nice clout. great point on abreu. seriously.

[mike cunningham]

@MG -- the "Window" is closing theory is something we hear a lot in Philadelphia. That also assumes, that rosters don't regenerate every 2 to 3 years anyway.

I would agree with that scenario that while the "age" of our team is one of the highest in the league (if not the highest) but that's also skewed by Moyers and Gordon.

Yes Utley, Howard, and Rollins are not as young as their service time. But they aren't ancient. Their window of Prime? At least 5 more years. If these guys were 32 or 33 I'd be worried. Isn't the Baseball-reference end of prime around 34?

And with the youth in the starting staff Hamels, Kendrick, Myers, that would suggest that window should be open at least that long.

Maybe Manuel's window is short.

Maybe Gillick's window is short.

Certainly Gordon and Moyers. And Burrell on this squad.

But if you consider the core of this team is Utley, Howard, Rollins, Hamels, Myers. The Window isn't closing anytime soon.

[Andy]

Jason -
you're not advocating picking up Turnbow, are you?

He's allowed 25 baserunners (12 H, 13 BB) (!!!)in 6.1 IP so far. He must either be injured or done.

I'm thinkin the Brewers think the latter.

[Andy]

cunningham - don't forget Bruntlett, our little garden gnome is only 29.

[Pride of Philly]

Andy:
How can you knock those numbers from McPherson without even comparing him to Feliz. If I based Feliz on 500 ABs he would have 42 GiPDs compared to McPhersons 19. Feliz has an OPS of 602 and McPhersons is 1.019.
Still nothing will change but I would take that over the 8 million we spent on Feliz. For an organization that likes to save a penny, I am surprised he isn't a Phillie.

[MG]

Mike - Completely disagree because of when guys are signed and slightly less due to age.

Basically this team is going to contend with this current core of players through the 2010 season (with one exception being Myers who is a FA after '09 and I doubt is back with this team). By then they will likely have to make a decision on Howard and figure out if they are going to lock-up Hamels long-term.

One of the reasons I have been so critical of Gillick is that he has had no real long-term coherent plan for this organization since Day 1. This team is good right now but I just don't see them being able to win a championship as constituted the next year or two. That is my biggest gripe.

[Burt]

Billy Wagner remains a helluva teammate.See below:
Wagner rips Perez for taxing bullpen
Thursday, May 01, 2008
BY DAVID WALDSTEIN Neward Star-Ledger Staff
NEW YORK -- With the Mets in need of a long outing from starter Oliver Perez to give the bullpen a much-needed rest, Perez did what his teammates did all game -- he dropped the ball. Perez lasted only 1-2/3 innings and gave up seven runs (five of them unearned) on two hits and five walks in his worst start of the year. No surprise, of course, he was booed off the field by the fans, whose jeers on this day could not be interpreted as overly harsh.

Nor could the criticism of teammate Billy Wagner, who ripped Perez's lack of determination in what would go on to become a 13-1 embarrassment at the hands of the lowly Pirates. "Perez honestly has got to step up and know that we've just used every guy in the bullpen the night before," Wagner said. "He can't come in and come out there and decide that he doesn't have it today, and so be it."

[ae]

Golson's BABIP is still an astronomical .430 (per this formula). I remain doubtful that he's flipped a switch this season, considering his K rate and BB rate are still very poor - just not historically poor.

[Bedrosian's Beard]

Forget about McPherson.

[from the district]

ae: golson has a high bapip, but its not as high as it would appear at first.

His last three years of babip are .360, .379 and .337

which indicates that when he does make contact, he usually hits it pretty good. And it also shows that he might not come down as hard as that .430 would lead you to believe

[J. Weitzel]

"particularly for next year when the Phils are going to have a bunch of openings there."

Excellent point, MG.

[from the district]

don't the phillies have hamels utley rollins and howard all through at least 2011? (rollins 2011 is a team option)

[joe l]

Wagner bitches, but whenever he shits the bed, the game is effectively over -- four or five relief pitchers don't come in to mop up after him. Wagner states the truth, but if I were Perez, I'd tell him where to shove it.

[Andy]

Pride: everyone knows how I feel about Feliz. All I was trying to state about McPherson is that 1) his record this year at AAA, even if you only focus on the HRs and nothing else, does not necessarily translate into success at a MLB level - there are lots of guys who hit .286 at AAA who won't do that well in the majors; and B) he still is another K-prone LHB.

But, yeah, he certainly would've been a cheaper option than Feliz. He also would have been a lot riskier long term. I'm not sure the extent to which he would have improved the team.

[ae]

which indicates that when he does make contact, he usually hits it pretty good. And it also shows that he might not come down as hard as that .430 would lead you to believe.

I disagree, ftd. in the first place, there's an enormous difference between .430 and even .379, his previous high, or .353, his career mark. plus, despite this ridonkulous BABIP, Golson is hitting only .314!

additionally, there simply aren't players who can sustain numbers like that in the majors. just looking at a few very good slap-hitting outfielders: Ichiro's career BABIP is .355. Kenny Lofton's career BABIP is .326. Willie Wilson's career BABIP is .329. Willie McGee's career BABIP is .341.

[ae]

if 2008 Golson had his 2004-2007 BABIP (.348), he would be hitting .257 right now and nobody would be seriously claiming that he had made a major stride this year.

[clout]

The thing to watch on Golson is K/BB ratio. It is still horrendous, but it is better than last season. If he ever hopes to become Corey Patterson (his max. ceiling, in my opinion) he'll need to improve that ratio at the same time as he increases his HR total. Personally, I think he's got a better chance to end up being Reggie Taylor.

[from the district]

ae, so we can gather nothing from a player sustaining a high babip over 1200 minor league at bats? its just dumb luck?

[Andy]

Wagner's comments, aside from being incendiary are pretty disingenuous. First of all, his blown save is one reason some of the bullpen was overworked. If he hadn't messed it up, Sosa would have been available for them the next day. Secondly, he says nothing about Supa-Ace Santana's 5.2 IP in that game. Isn't the $137MM man supposed to go longer than part way through the sixth? How come the Rat don't say nuthin' 'bout that? And then, how come he didn't volunteer to pitch in O Perez's game - "Put me in coach! I wouldn't want our other bullpen guys to get tired out!"

.

Thank goodness and Wade for Eric Lidge's professional manner.

[from the district]

i'm not trying to come to golson's defence or anything, I personally would not bet a penny on him contributing anything to the phillies . . . I just find the career babip interesting.

[EastFallowfield]

Re: Metsblog's standings...

They do the loss column deal, OK, fine. But Mets having played 3 less games than the Phils, I'll take my chances that the Mets lose at least one of every 3 games.

[stevo]

I for one am growing tired of Madson and wouldn't mind seeing him go. After that sensational rookie year, it's been all down hill. But he did pitch pretty well last year before he got hurt. This year, however, he's back to being the Madson that has pushed his career era up faster than commodities prices.
It's almost like he pitches scared. He misses his spots by so much that the hitter isn't tempted to offer at them even when he's ahead in the count. His value is going down fast so the phils might be wise to trade him for another arm and see if we get lucky.

Anyone notice that Manuel doesn't have much confidence in him

[ae]

ftn, I don't think it's fair to say he's sustained a high BABIP. I think it's more accurate to say he's had a wildly inconsistent BABIP. by year:
2004 Rk .414
2005 A .358
2006 A .283
2006 A+ .360
2007 A+ .374
2007 AA .333
2008 AA .431

additionally, I don't see what's so implausible about a player with extremely poor command of the strike zone being able to get by in the low minors but failing at higher levels of competition.

[Andy]

On Golson:
1) Two reasons his career BABIP is high: a) he strikes out a lot and b) he's fast. If Pat Burrell hits a dribbler to third it's 5-3; if Greg Golson hits it it's man-on-first. (Speed, baby!)

2) Before putting any stock in his career BABIP, someone come up with his LD%. That's where the action is.

3) clout's right about his KK/B ratio. The test at AA was to see if he could improve it. As bad as his numbers look, he has. It is, moreover, not his pattern to improve dramatically in his first year at a new level. He usually stinks for most of the year before learning to cope. He's coping better in 2008. By the end of July we should know what he's learned and how well he's learned it.

4) His ceiling is not unlimited as a hitter. He will never have great isolated power. But if he can turn into a decent hitter there are other things that he will bring to a team that might help him get into the majors: speed, defensive range, a great arm, and, um, speed. An outfield of Golson, Vic and Werth might not scare a lot of opposing pitchers, but it might make Brett Myers look a lot better.

[Andy]

ae - be careful with sample size. I'm not sure that the 2007 AA numbers have a significant number of ABs.

[bay_area_phan]

Re Condrey . . . He's ok in his present role -- which isn't saying much, since just about anyone would be ok if his only role is to pitch in blowouts. My concern is that, when someone gets injured, Condrey will take on a more important role, for which he's inadequate. In an ideal world, Condrey would be the guy you call up from the minors when someone gets hurt. Unfortunately, I'm mighty skeptical that either Outman or Castro would be any better than Condrey in the near term.

[ae]

An outfield of Golson, Vic and Werth might not scare a lot of opposing pitchers, but it might make Brett Myers look a lot better.

well, a lower ERA doesn't help your W-L too much when you lose that much run support.

[ae]

Andy, I'm not really arguing anything based on his 2007 AA numbers. and besides, Golson had more AB at AA in 2007 than he's had so far in 2008.

regarding LD%, Minor League Splits doesn't have 2008 numbers posted. but his previous seasons look like this:
2005 A 9.81%
2006 A 12.32%
2006 A+ 15.00%
2007 A+ 15.03%
2007 AA 9.80%

I think it's also worth noting that Golson wasn't even that good at High A in 2006-07. he hit .279/.323/.456 as a 20-21 year old; that's not all that spectacular.

[Andy]

ae - I was not advocating that OF; just looking at its silver lining.

BTW: Speed can score runs, too. The catch is, the Phils would still need a RHB with some pop in the line-up. And while some might say that the current 3B has "pop" I'm sure they mean in some way other than the sense it's normally meant.

[RSB]

Are you guys talking about that All-Star in the making Oliver Perez? Gee, what a surprise to see. That Mets rotation still scaring everyone?

Personally, I would rather see Ray King now than play the fingers-crossing game with Castro come June. This team is going to be involved in a lot of tight games in a tight race, and I would prefer the guy with knowledge of the league and the situational experience in this circumstance. March is the time for that kind of experimentation. This, to me, is back to the Tim Lahey mindset - looking for possible solutions instead of aiming for concrete solutions. Long-term, fine, it probably makes sense to peg these two as relievers. But not in the wild hopes of one of them coming up and suddenly filling an important role on a contending team.

[RT]

This could also be a way of artificially boosting the team's trade stock. Aside from Carrasco, the Phils really don't have any truly promising pitching prospects in AA or AAA. Making a couple of guys they were grooming to be low-ceiling starters into relievers automatically increases their value. Especially in a time when just about everyone in MLB is in desperate need of relief pitching.

[from the district]

ae: I guess we are just interpreting the numbers differently. Perhaps I am uninformed about what an average babip is.

[from the district]

in any case, clout and others are right, without improving that walk rate further and cutting down on the strikeouts dramatically, nothing is going to come of this guy.

[Andy]

ae - All I'm saying is that Golson's BABIP, year to year, is not as important to watch as his BB/K ratio. So far he's about doubled it from the previous two years, despite being at a higher level. If he continues that trend for, say, another 100 ABs, I am willing to admit that he's improved. Whether he's improved enough to really be a prospect is, as you intimate, a whole other story.

Anyway, Jason's started a new thread.