Friday: Phils finish series with tolerable loss to Webb

Arizona's Brandon Webb continues to set the bar for Major League pitching, going the distance and an 8-3 win over the Phillies. Meanwhile, Brett Myers falls farther down the measuring stick.

Myers allowed seven runs, six earned, and nine hits in five innings, striking out five and walking three. Once again, the damage came quickly and largely without warning, allowing a four-run fourth after it appeared he’d settled in. The damage started when he led off the frame with back-to-back walks, this after Chris Young touched him up for a two-run shot in the first, the 12th home run Myers has surrendered this season, which leads the league. That’s an average of 2.15 per game, double that of anyone else in the Phillies’ rotation.

It’s not that anyone expects Myers to match Webb. Everyone knows Webb is in a higher class. It’s that Myers isn’t even pitching well enough to be included in the next tier down. He’s slipping into the inconsistent middle class with guys like Kyle Lohse and Braden Looper where you don’t know what to expect in any given start, or even any given inning. September of 2006, the last time Myers pitched like a top-tier starter, seems like centuries ago. Today, he’s just another pitcher in the rotation, at best an innings eater, at worst, architect behind stinkers like yesterday, and I begin to wonder if this is all we should expect from him.

Comments

[EastFallowfield]

Hope you're working on some fancy artwork heralding the Return of The MVP...

[timr]

I think Myers was kinda hoping for a Lidge collapse and another heroic and "selfless" (even though its what he really wants) move back to closer. He'll figure things out as a starter whenever he finally accepts that its not happening this season.

[Andy]

Word, Jason. I usually think of Myers as a #3. I said something along these lines during the winter (but also, foolishly, mistakenly downgraded Hamels to a #2). After reconsidering our pitching, based on this year's and previous year's figures, we have a starting rotation like this:
#1 Cole Hamels
#2 Glaring Absence
#3 Bret Myers
#4 Another Vacancy
#5 Jamie Moyer
#5 Kyle Kendrick
*gets number only in some bizarro universe* Eaton

Let's hope some of the kids in the system have a lightbulb go on before the All-Star break.

[Andy]

Since I was out at a meeting last night and haven't read through the last thread, how much regret and angst are people expressing over Kyle Lohse now that he's been occupied with reverting to career norms?

I'm feeling a little glad that we didn't sign him for $21MM so he could give up 15 Rs in 10 IP for us.

Anyone notice that Bruntlett's BA is .250, higher than his career BA. Another dinger or two and this might become his "career year."

[ill]

I think our best option with Myers is to hope he puts together a good season, then try to trade him as a top of the line closer near the trade deadline or in the offseason for a slugger to play LF and let Burrell go.

Only thing is, Myers needs to not be Kyle Lohse.

[clout]

RSB: I think we may have a semantic issue. On the day of the Abreu trade, you wrote, "To me, this is the greatest day in Phillies history in a long time. I guess I stand on a totally different page with most of you. This is a day I have been waiting for for two years.

Posted by: RickSchuBlues | Sunday, July 30, 2006 at 03:35 PM "

I have interpreted this as you thinking the Abreu trade was a great one for the Phillies. But maybe words mean something different ot you.

[NL Beast]

Myers has the capability to be a number 3 starter, and a number 2 in really good stretches. But it's been so long since he was a consistent starter, we have no idea if he can still do that. And in his best years, he would never pitch a complete season. Rather, it would be a good month here, an ok month here. He was always very streaky like the rest of the rotation.

I'm with timr on this. We have a glaring a huge hole at #2 and #4. Gillick's gotta know this. I wonder what he may have up his sleeve...

[Wayne]

On the AAA front - Walrond had a good start last night.

[bay_area_phan]

Characterizing pitchers by their spot in the rotation is ok for short-hand descriptive purposes, but it's not really very illuminating when it comes to assessing a team's needs. The Phillies' pitching needs are the same as every other team: to find the 5 best starting pitchers they can find. By definition, your 5th starter is your worst starter which means that, by definition, he's the guy that you're trying to improve upon.

It would be great if we could find a "No. 2" starter, who would be an upgrade over Myers & who would force Eaton out of the rotation. But there aren't many of those guys around & the teams that have them don't trade them. In the real world, the only way we're going to find a No. 2 caliber starter is through luck -- i.e., calling someone up from the minors and having him pitch like a No. 2 starter. That's exactly what happened last year with Kendrick. It's not terribly likely to repeat itself this year, but it's more likely than finding a No. 2 starter in a trade -- which has very close to a 0% probability of happening.

[Andy]

Beast:
You're with me, actually. The posters' names are below the post on BL.

But thanks. Yeah. I'm sure Gillick knows that there are holes in the pitching staff; that's why, during the offseason, he worked so hard on...

Oh, wait. Sorry. My bad. In the offseason Gillick worked on acquiring mediocre position for multi-year contracts and adding Hawaiian shirts for the Winter Meeting Luau.

[UD Hens]

Sigh. Myers needs to get himself together and be a productive starting pitcher this year. Then the new GM will have to make a decision at the end of the season - will they sign Lidge to a new contract or does he walk? If Lidge is not signed, then I think they look to Myers being the closer in 2009.

[E]

the new GM is the same one they have now, Amaro. if you believe that, I don't know what to tell you

[NL Beast]

Whoops, credit to bay area fan...

Anyways, Gillick certainly did not use the offseason to do much of anything. Needless to say, he watched as the Mets traded for Santana and somehow did nothing as Jamie Moyer is our third man in the rotation.

Wayne, I understand that there is not much you can do when the market is small, but that's where a good GM gets something done. Gillick has been willing to make the mid-season move, and I think this season will be no different.

Bottom line, I can't see this team making the playoffs without another starter. They got *very* lucky last year concerning their starting pitching. I have no reason to believe that will continue.

[NL Beast]

Agreed, there is no way they go out and sign someone other than Amaro. They might make fans happy by interviewing Cashman, but it will be Amaro.

[Andy]

b-a-p:
For descriptive purposes only, I would characterize a #2 starter as someone who some other teams would feel okay starting as the ace of their staff, you know, if they didn't have a real lights-out guy like Hamels. Myers is not that.

Also for descriptive purposes, I would characterize a #5 starter as someone you live with because you think you'll get something serviceable out of about half his starts.

I would characterize 3s and 4s along a scale, between dreck and really, pretty good most of the time. Last year, Kendrick was really goo, most of the time. He was a solid #3, for descriptive purposes, but not so much this year. Likewise, Moyer, toward the end of the year was serviceable; but if you look at his overall numbers, well, a team with adequate starters might start him reluctantly. He is a #5.

Eaton is not a major league pitcher. Simply. Gillick, Amaro and Eaton need to get their brains around this sad fact.

[Andy]

Beast - you did it again. Look down. This is "Andy." b-a-p disagrees, actually.

[clout]

Pitchers who rely on their breaking stuff, like Myers, really need to be consistent in their delivery and command and have a game plan. In his last bad outing it appeared that he was throwing too many sliders (his 3rd best pitch), so the problem was game plan. Yesterday his pitches were poorly located, so the problem was command. Guys like this will drive you crazy, but when he's on, he can beat anyone.

[bay_area_phan]

Andy: It's not that I disagree (I don't). It's just that sometimes people get so carried away with these descriptive labels that they say nonsensical things like, "Eaton is an average No. 5 starter. The real problem is that Jamie Moyer is a below-average No. 3. Therefore, Moyer, not Eaton, is the one that needs to be replaced." This statement makes no sense, for reasons I don't need to repeat. Although no one had made this type of statement yet, I could see it coming down the pipeline. So I was just giving a gentle reminder that, if you're not satisfied with your starting rotation, then, by definition, your No. 5 starter is the guy who needs to be replaced -- whether it be by adding a better No. 5, or by adding a No. 2 and moving everyone else down.

[Willard Preacher]

Wait, isn't Kris Benson supposed to come along, pitch like he hasn't been injured/crappy for 3 years and make everything all better? At least, that's what I've been reading that's what the plan was.

[NL Beast]

Haha, sorry Andy. Too many boards and blogs.

[Wes Chamberlain]

"Agreed, there is no way they go out and sign someone other than Amaro. They might make fans happy by interviewing Cashman, but it will be Amaro."

What is the fascination with Brian Cashman? The Yankees won one World Series under him and that was in his thrid year, with a team that he did not have a lot do with putting together. The positive moves he did make were very obvious, i.e. Clemens, A-Rod, and really only involved him outspending everyone else. We know the Phillies management is not going to give him a blank check book. I certainly don't want to settle for Amaro, but interviewing Cashman, doesn't do anything for me.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brian_Cashman

[stjoehawk]

Wes - Actually, they won 3 World Series while he was the GM. He was hired on Feb 4th, 1998 (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/baseball/mlb/features/1998/yankees/timeline/),
and the Yankees won in 1998, 1999 & 2000.

[Andy]

On Cashman - he, unlike some other GM types, knew that Abreu and Lidle were worth more than Henry, Smith, Monasterios and Sanchez.

[Wes Chamberlain]

Ok, my bad, they did win three under Cashman, but it doesn't change my point. Those teams that won were already together before he bacame the GM. But since 2000, as players from the winning teams began leaving, what has he really done, other than spend lots of money bringing in players that ultimately haven't got it done?

He has traded away some good players, signed some big money free agents who were busts, and if Hughes and Ian Kennedy don't pan out, he wouldn't have gotten a whole lot out of the farm system.

Maybe part of the problem holding him back is that as the Yankees GM he feels pressured to always make the big money splash instead of the quitter deal that actually is better than the big money move. So maybe he is good baseball mind, but I would rather see them go in a differnet direction.

Of course this argument is pointless since we all know the next GM is Amaro, so I guess I shouldn't even worry about Cashman.

[AWH the RBP]

clout, no disagreement.

But let me ask:

What affects "command" (BTW, I hate the term. I much prefer the old school term "control".)?

Is command mental or physical?

As Jason posted above, it's been since Sept 2006 that Myers has had 'command' for more than 2 starts in a row.

IMO, I think timr hit the nail on the head:
Myers was hoping for the '2007 version' of Lidge as opposed to the 'career year/contract year' version that showed up. "Back to closer and we'll live happily ever after".

He as much as admits it's mental in Zolecki's article this morning titled "Beaten Myers wonders what went wrong".

He's not saying he's hurt. He's not saying he's sore. Simply, then, it's in his head. His heart is not in it. Either that or he doesn't have one.

I also wonder if the contract he has (financial security) is affecting him. That could explain his lack of motivation to get in shape.

[Andy]

b-a-p: agreed on the "best five pitchers" thing. It's sad that Eaton is one of ours.

[NL Beast]

I don't think Cashman is anything to write home about. But I wouldn't be shocked if they interviewed him.

I want a proactive GM who is willing to make moves in the offseason as well as in-season - doesn't everybody? Amaro could end up being fine, but I have no faith in someone who has been wrapped up with this ownership for so long.

[Wes Chamberlain]

"quitter deal" should have been quieter deal.

[JB]

Jason - not sure when that picture was taken and maybe it is the angle but it looks a little awkward and strange.

It almost appears he is looking in the dugout as he is pitching.

Maybe that was right before his arm popped last year.

[J. Weitzel]

Just to chime in on the starter "numbering" issue ... agreed it has little value except for general descriptive purposes and for people like Jason Weitzel to sound like he knows what he's talking about.

I challenge anyone to tell me the difference between a No. 4 and No. 5 starter. Why is Jamie Moyer a good enough No. 5 but could never be counted as a No. 3?

[J. Weitzel]

JB: All I know about that shot is it's from last season.

[AWH the RBP]

Wes Chamberlain, I happen to agree with you about Cashman. I don't know why the media and others have fallen in love with a guy who puts winning teams on the field with a $200MM budget.

I'd be willing to wager that with the Yankees' budget any serious baseball fan (by that I mean 90%+ of BeerLeaguers) could put a winning team on the field.

Really...how hard is it to sign ARod, Sheffield, Clemens, Matsui, Damon, Giambi, Mussina, Pavano etc. etc. etc. if you have the money?

If the team had been built entirely from within through the farm system I would be more impressed. But it hasn't and I'm not.

[Andy]

JB - I was thinking the same thing. He's throwing a breaking ball and his head is jerked over the the left.

[Dicke Thon]

perhaps the stupidest question ever: but how would you guys feel about a howard for linecum swap if things continue as they are come midseason and the giants remain out of serious contention?

for that matter, could the machine be trained to play first base?

[Bedrosian's Beard]

Re: Cashman. It might be fair to say he's overrated, but it's not like he gets to make all decisions. He's always had one or more Steinbrenners yelling into his ears to sign big name players, i.e Pavano, in lieu of smarter moves. I'd take him in a heartbeat and wouldn't be surprised if they bring him in for an interview.

[clout]

AWH: First a definition: Control is the ability to throw strikes. Command is the ability to locate those strikes in ceryain areas of the strike zone. Just throwing strikes usually isn't enough for a breaking ball pitcher, which is why command is so important.

I would say that command can be impacted by either a mental breakdown (guy loses composure and rushes his delivery or tries to overthrow) or a physical breakdown (delivery mechanics).

What's curious about Myers is I haven't seen anything from Dubee or Cholly suggesting what the problem might be. Given his history, of course, you'd have to say it's mental.

[NL Beast]

I definitely think Burrell could play first, but I'm not sure he'll take a 2-3 year contract. 3/30m is the most he should get, but some team will prob give him more, especially if he keeps this up.

[Andy]

Jason - even if you eliminate the numbering system you come up with the same guys. Do it without numbers and you can say something like:
The Phils currently have one top of the rotation starter, one middle of the rotation starter, two bottom of the rotation starters and a guy who shouldn't be in anyone's rotation in MLB (except in that bizarro universe where even Chollie has highlights).

Numbers just make that statement easier to picture.

[bay_area_phan]

jason: The difference between a No. 3 and a No. 5 is that the No. 3 is the guy who Beerleaguers look at and say, "He's ok for a No. 5, but not a No. 3." Whereas a No. 5 is the guy who Beerleaguers look at and say, "He sucks."

[Dull]

Clearly Myers wants to be a closer. Trade him to a team that needs one for a starter. Frees up money to sign Lidge for next year. Or got to be someone Happ, at AAA, Carrasco, Bastardo or Carpenter at AA, Savery at A+ who can come up and give six innings and have a better ERA than Myers's 5.33.

[Bob]

What a difference a year makes. SI's new power rankings has the 3 worst teams in baseball all in the NL West: Giants, Rockies, Padres. Phils are #7.

[clout]

Regarding the numbering system, I think when folks use terms like "he projects as a #3 starter" they are thinking in league average terms. Obviously, one team's #3 starter is a better team's #5.

Two of the best pitching staffs in history were the 1954 Indians and 1971 Orioles.
The Indians would stack up like this:
1. Bob Lemon 23-7, 2.72
2. Early Wynn 23-11, 2.73
3. Mike Garcia 19-8, 2.64
4. Art Houtteman 15-7, 3.35
5. Bob Feller 13-3, 3.09

Kinda cool having Feller as your #5, no? That team's ERA+ was 132.

The O's go like this:
1. Jim Palmer 20-9, 2.68
2. Dave McNally 21-5, 2.89
3. Pat Dobson 20-8, 2.90
4. Mike Cuellar 20-9, 3.08

That team didn't use a 5th starter and each of those guys, save Dobson, was considered an ace in his day and would've been a #1 on most teams. The team's ERA+ was 112, not as good as the Indians, but no other team ever had four 20-game winners.

[Andy]

As good as Lincecum is, the Phils need to get more when they trade Howard. He does have the potential to be a HOF candidate. And everyday players are always worth more than pitchers.

[clout]

That Indians team, by the way, holds the MLB record for winning pct. in a season (.721).

[RSB]

I wouldn't say that this is what ought to be expected from Myers. Even though I always say that his mental makeup prevents him from being a more consistent winner, he still should be better than *this*. I mean, break down that fourth inning yesterday. He walks the first two hitters, gives up an infield hit. Fine, but then you have the bottom of the order up, still not that big a deal. But instead of going right after Chris Snyder, a guy he should be able to eat alive, he putzes around with him, falls behind, and then comes in with the most predictable pitch in the world, a flat 2-0 fastball. That kind of sh*t just should not happen. It's obviously an issue of command, but furthermore I believe it's an issue of focus - which of course comes back to his mental makeup. The reason why the bullpen suits him better is because it allows him to focus for that one inning. Give him six or seven innings and you're bound to have a couple hairy ones. Still, it's no excuse. Do your friggin' job. Learn from your mistakes instead of sounding so bewildered. It's no mystery, Brett. You just refuse to learn your trade.

clout - everyone else has long since been bored out of their skulls by this Abreu nonsense, and I shouldn't even engage you, but what I said about Abreu's departure is not at all the same as pretending it was a "good trade". How the front office handled that situation is a fundamentally separate issue from the notion that I was glad to see Abreu go.

[Dicke Thon]

clout: ok, just speaking in hypotheticals, what if we could get linecum for howard (a multi-year deal for linecum) and pick up bonds for a bag of hockey pucks as no other team would take him? (assume bonds for the remainder of the year only).

[AWH the RBP]

clout, thanks for the explanation.

One other thought on Myers:

He has a propensity to get fat. (There is well documented photographic evidence to support this.)

Does he want to be a closer because he doesn't have to get in the kind of shape he would have to be in in order to be a starter? Is he physically lazy, and is closing the path of least resistance in the gym?

Lastly, has he been surviving purely on physical talent up to this point, and is that talent dimishing earlier than could have been predicted (injuries, being overweight)?

Does he now need to, as clout put it, "have a game plan", and is incapable of executing one?

Just some questions.

[AWH the RBP]

clout, I remember that Orioles team. We lived in the B-W area at the time. Cuellar had a vicious screwball he threw to RH batters. Imagine being on that team and coming to the park every day, knowing one of those guys was on the hill. They lost to the Pirates in the WS.

A RP on that Pirates team has a connection to the Phillies. Any guesses?

If I recall correctly, a lot of teams only used four starter back then, with a spot start given to s swingman from time to time. Of couse that was when SP routinely threw more than 200 innings.

The '71 Cardinals had Carlton, Jerry Reuss, Reggie Cleveland and 35 yr old Bob Gibson. Reuss pitched 211 inning that year, the least of the group. Gibson, Cleveland and Carlton had 245, 222, and 273 IP respectively. That was not unusual at the time.

[Joe K]

The best place to trade Howard is the Angels. They need power. The deal would be for either one of the three young starters Weaver, Santana or Saunders, and Kotchman 1b, Brandon Wood 3b and Dustin Mosely or a pitcher from their minor league system for our bullpen.

[Wayne]

Most teams do not have 1 started that could have started 20 years ago.