Monday: Home stand exemplifies virtues of pitching

The first-place Phillies took two out of three from the Giants via walk-off wins, made possible by a surprisingly good pitching staff.

The lesson here is if you pitch well, you can win pretty (Friday) or win ugly (Sunday). There’s no mystery behind their success this season. None. The starters have been able to go relatively deep in ballgames and a shut-down bullpen has kept it close for the offense to pull it out. They’re four deep with late-inning arms they can trust, none better than Brad Lidge and his spotless ERA. The results have seen comeback wins in 10 of their 18 victories, this from the team that led all of baseball with 48 come-from-behind wins a year ago, with a much worse bullpen.

The merits of good pitching were also illustrated on the other side. The Phils entertained the weakest offensive links of the West and nearly every game was tit for tat. From Greg Maddux on Tuesday to Tim Lincecum on Sunday, the home stand demonstrated just how good the West will be, and serves as a preview of what the Phils will encounter as they begin a seven-game road trip tonight in Arizona. As good as they've been, the Phillies' pitching staff could be asked to kick into an even higher gear inside parks that will neutralize their long-ball threat.

Comments

[Lake Fred]

As I said in the last thread, this road trip scares me; four games with the D-Backs and three with the "newly confident against the Phils" Giants. There is no off travel day for the Phillies. Starting with a night game against the best of the west will be tough.

[GM-Carson]

The NL West is a great division overall and I'm damn glad we're not in it (also because the games stay up way past my bedtime).

Facing Arizona is a big time test. The Phils failed their early season tests againt the Mets (the only other really decent opponent they've faced so far). Let's hope they can fair better now.

[Jimmie J.]

I like the pitching matchups for this week. What's the lastest on Jimmy Rollins?

[Hugh Mulcahy]

I hate these trips out West and the lack fo travel days makes it worse. I'm looking forward to seeing the D-Backs pitchers because they have been so good, but I would rather see Rollins in the lead off spot when we go there. This could be ugly without him.

[ae]

The Phils failed their early season tests againt the Mets (the only other really decent opponent they've faced so far).

um, Cubs?

[Sophist]

The Phils were a great snag by Derek Lee away from sweeping the Cubs. They also took 3 of 4 from the Rockies and Brewers.

[PhilliesPhan87]

The NL West is not a good division. The only teams that are over .500 in that division are the Dbacks and the Dodgers.

I think the Phils will do fine at AZ taking a minimum of 2 games.

[Morty]

Anyone been to Coolstandings and notice that they have the Braves at 50% to win the NL East? Anyone have any insight on that?

[GM-Carson]

AE- my bad, that was simply an oversight in regards to the Cubs as they are certainly contenders. I was thinking off the top of my head, and my memory slightly failed me with forgetting about the Cubbies series.

[GM-Carson]

The Braves have been a huge disappointment this year, and believe it or not it's because of their pitching. Their offense is absolutely ridiculous right now, especially with Chipper Jones doing his best Splendid Splinter impression.

[bay_area_phan]

If you're a glass half-full guy, then it's encouraging to see the Phillies in first place even though much of their offense has been inept all year long. If you're a glass half-empty guy, it's discouraging to see the offense in such a sustained slump because the formula that has gotten them to first place is unsustainable.

By now, most of you should know which camp I fall into. I do not think guys like Gordon and Durbin can keep pitching this well. I've always been a Brad Lidge fan, but he can't be perfect every night and, when he hits a little adversity, he's been known to fall to pieces. Utley & Burrell are excellent players, but both are due for some serious regression to the mean. Our starting pitching has basically performed to par, which is to say mediocre. But it's easy to imagine a scenario where they get worse. Eaton has walked a fine line between being serviceable & regressing to his 2007 self. Moyer's ERA is ok, but completely unsustainable with an opponents BA of .336 and a WHIP of 1.75. Either he's going to improve those peripherals or he's going to start yielding a ton of runs. It's about a 50-50 bet which way it will fall.

In short, if Ryan Howard doesn't start putting up Ryan Howard numbers, this team is going nowhere. And, at some point in the not-so-distant future, it will be fair to start wondering if it's ever going to happen. "Reversion to the mean" theory no longer applies if 1/3 of the season is over and a guy is still hitting .180.

[GM-Carson]

B_A_P- that's one of the best comments I've read on BeerLeaguer all season long and I wholeheartedly agree with you.

[ae]

Braves rank so highly because of their excellent RS/RA ratio - expected W-L is 93, compared to 87 for Philly. of course what's been killing them is their 0-9 record in one-run games.

[Ribbies]

BAP, I tend to agree with you pessimism, but you neglected to add that we've been missing Jimmy for most of the season to this point. I think it will take him a while to get back in the swing of thing, but he will eventually help this team offensively immensely and solidify the top of the lineup with Vic or Werth. I agree that Howard has to get it going, but he's not the only variable.

[CJ]

bap: Your optimism is refreshing in the morning.

As much as you want to tell us how Chase Utley and Pat Burrell will suddenly get worse... and how the pitchers can't possibly continue being as good as they've been...

I'll tell you that Ryan Howard can't possibly be as bad as he's been... Geoff Jenkins, Pedro Feliz and Carlos Ruiz are all hitting below their career numbers... Jimmy Rollins has been out for weeks, being replaced by Eric Bruntlett... Shane Victorino has been injured...

So as the pitching supposedly gets suddenly worse... and as PtB and Chase cool off, it's certainly not unreasonable to believe the rest of the offense will just as suddenly improve.

You can spin the record any way you want. But it is what it is. The Phillies are a first place team. The Philles have a .563 winning percentage.

[CJ]

ae: Yeah, I noticed that as well. The Braves are also winless in extra innings.

I wonder what why that is? Their bullpen has been in shambles so maybe they have a lot of blown saves.

Or maybe they've had a lot of close games in which they've failed to get that big hit.

I guess I'd have to go back and look at their game log.

[bay_area_phan]

CJ:

First, I agree that Rollins' return will undoubtedly make a big difference, though I suspect he's probably going to struggle for the first few weeks

Second, all I said was that there are some "discouraging" signs, and that if Ryan Howard doesn't kick it into gear, the team is going nowhere. I made no predictions about whether or not he would actually kick it into gear and, for the record, I think he will. However, given the way his swing has looked for the first 6 weeks of this season, you would have to be lying if you claimed with anything near certainty that a return to normal is assured. I'd say it's about 70% likely at this point. And the longer his woes go on, the more that likelihood goes down.

[MG]

Considering they don't have an off-day to rest the pen and they have to play 4 games against the DBacks in Arizona, a 4-3 roadtrip would be just fine.

One thing I am hoping is that JRoll actually is back by next weekend. While his defense overall has been sufficient (not great), Bruntlett really has gotten offensively starting everyday. If he hit .260 or .270 with some more walks, he would be useful but that just hasn't been the case.

[clout]

BAP: What was Burrell hitting last year after 54 games?

[The Truth Injection]

I predict by the end of this road trip Howard will be batting over .200 and will be shaking loose the horrible start to the season.

Hopefully....

[CJ]

bap: Sorry... just can't agree with this: "if Ryan Howard doesn't kick it into gear, the team is going nowhere."

There's absolutely, positively nothing that supports. In fact, there's actualy real evidence that isn't the case, and here it is, "This team is in first place despite him doing nothing."

[Bedrosian's Beard]

I'm with you, CJ.

Sixers won a few games, Flyers are in the Eastern Conference Finals, the Eagles drafted undersized players and the Phils are in first place...being a 4 for 4 Philly sports phan is feeling good again.

[MG]

BAP - Agreed about Howard but JRoll has been a huge loss. Like I said this weekend, I am on the officially worried bandwagon about Howard bandwagon now. It was a great sign that he took 3 walks yesterday but he still has some swings this weekend where he was horribly behind the pitch.

[johnnysanz3]

.229 .798 ops after 54 games. Sure not .180!

But he did bat .179 in May, and .129 in June, and that is quite horrible.

Howard didn't really have a bad start in his mvp season, I don't know what he did different that year. But he did worse the year after (injury) and even worse this year.. You usually hope they get better a few seasons into their major league career, not worse, right?

[clout]

OK I looked it up. Burrell was hitting .229 after 54 games (one third of the season). He got worse from there. He bottomed out at .202 with an almost Feliz-like .745 OPS (Actually that's not fair. Feliz career OPS is .719, the worst in baseball among everyday thirdbasemen with at least 3 years as regulars). This low point was at the 86-game mark (more than half the season). He ended up pretty close to his career norm, as some posters here suggested he would, causing other posters heads to explode.

[Cipper]

good point CJ, I agree with the Howard remark. This team should be fine. The Phightin's are in first with no help from Vic, JRoll, Howard, and below average performances from Ruiz, Feliz, and Jenkins...

Regardless, I feel the Phils could possibly take 3 of 4 from the D-Backs, and maybe sweep the Giants. Those bigger parks spell relief for the rotation, which has been pitching quite well so far this season.

[Willard Preacher]

Howard's "cold weather" excuse is rapidly running out of time. I see it as a "broken swing" excuse at this point. He just doesn't look very comfortable in the box. All the comments above are dead-on. The longer it goes on, the less likely we'll see any normal numbers from him all year.

As far as expectations go, I'll take 4-3 considering the circumstances. Starting with Moyer in the rotation and the lack of rest has me less than optimistic that we'll see a whole lot better than that.

MG, "One thing I am hoping is that JRoll actually is back by next weekend." How comfortable are you in that time frame considering what we know/don't know (thanks again Phils med staff/Front Office!) about the injury? This was supposed to be a "14 day injury," with the justification for not originally putting him on the DL. Now, who the hell knows anymore? I don't believe a single thing that comes out of that FO. Freddy Garcia's "minor" injury was the straw that broke the camel's back there.

[johnnysanz3]

Well it was cold in April 2006, and he hit .306 with 5 home runs that month.

[Andy]

This comment, at the end of last thread, truly needs to be repeated:

@parker - Usage of "Cholly". Wouldn't "Chollies omniscient gut" imply multiple "Cholly"s or multiple Cholly guts? The mere thought boggles the mind.

Posted by: joe l | Monday, May 05, 2008 at 09:40 AM

It's like a Phillies 2008 koan.

[joe l]

Still boggled after lunch.

[Will]

I personally think that the cold weather excuse is bogus, since it doesn't add any K's to Howards numbers no matter how cold it is.

But......johnnysanz3: "Well it was cold in April 2006, and he hit .306 with 5 home runs that month." April 2006 was actually the warmest April since recordkeeping began in 1895. http://www.lawrencevilleweather.com/blog/2006/05/april-2006-warmest-ever-for-united.html

Like I said, I don't think it has much of an effect, but I thought I remembered that spring being a warm one...

[Tim from Williamsport]

I find it funny that MetsBlog still has the Mets on top of the division at 16-13 and the Phils 1 game behind at 18-14. Wow..

Howard coming back to form is crucial but I think he's in the midst of coming out of the slump. He wasn't great against San Fran but he did manage some important walks and seemed more patient at the plate. Hopefully he sees the ball better and starts making some contact here soon.

[bay_area_phan]

clout: I almost addressed the Burrell phenomenon in my original post, because I knew someone would bring it up.

Burrell's overall 2007 numbers ended up very much in line with his career norms, but the way he got there was fairly extraordinary. If a .260 career hitter is hitting .202 after 86 games, no reasonable person can predict that he's going to end up at .260. A projection based on career performance necessarily assumes normal variations within that performance. When you start off with a long and very abnormal downward (or upward) variation, it's no longer reasonable to predict that the final numbers will end up normal.

[MG]

Willard Preacher - I tend to doubt that JRoll will be back either this weekend. The utter lack of any kind of talk about a rehab start schedule in the minors is really worrisome. The only thing that has really come out about it in the past week is that Cholly still wants JRoll to make 3 or 4 rehab starts before appearing back with the big league club.

[Willard Preacher]

It just seems to be the typical excuse that gets trotted out to explain his early season struggles. Personally, I think it's a joke. The kid is from MISSOURI for God's sake, not the Dominican Republic. Pat Burrell is from farther south and the cold hasn't hurt him this year.

[MG]

My bet is that JRoll is not back until the Phils' extended homestand later this month. Say May 22 or 23.

[Willard Preacher]

I hope you're right MG. Sadly, no news is certainly NOT good news when it comes to the Phils and discussing medical status. May 22/23 sounds about right if a few rehab games are in order.

[clout]

BAP: There were 5 or 6 unreasonable posters on here then.

[bay_area_phan]

The Phillies' current record has them on pace for 91 wins, which would be more than they've ever won in their recent run. As Jason said in his article, the Phillies' early season success tells you everything you need to know about the relative importance of pitching & hitting. But that's just my point.

I have no doubt that the Phillies will be in the thick of the playoff race all year, largely with the same formula that put them in the thick of the playoff race in each of the past 5 years: offense. Over the rest of the season, the Phillies can reasonably expect some upward reversion to the mean from their offense (in some cases, significant upward reversion). But they can also expect some serious downward reversion from their bullpen & possibly their starting pitching. Since pitching is more important than offense, I suspect these off-setting reversions will result in a slightly lower winning percentage for the rest of the season -- which would give them a final record right in line with their normal range of 86 to 89 wins. That COULD be good enough to win the East or claim a WC, but I wouldn't bet on it.

[clout]

BAP: One more thought: This would be a good subject for a sabrmetrician. How many players had to make up that much of a deficit after 80 or so games to finish close to their career norms? Going in either direction. My guess is it is more than you think. An awful lot of players are incredibly streaky.

[bay_area_phan]

Clout: I'd say more like 2 or 3. The only ones that come immediately to mind would be you & CJ. In this case, Burrell had a freakishly good second half and the unreasonable optimists turned out correct. But that doesn't mean the underlying projection was sound.

If you flip a coin & it turns up heads 10 times in a row, that doesn't increase the odds that the next flip will be tails. The same is true with player projections. The fact that Pat Burrell was hitting .202 after 86 games did not increase the likelihood that he would hit .350 (or whatever it was) for the rest of the season. The same goes for Ryan Howard if his average is still under the Mendoza line on May 31. He may well turn around and play like Ryan Howard for the last 4 months, in which case he will no doubt be a huge asset to the team. But, even if he gives you 4 months of normal hitting, he can't dig himself a 2-month hole & expect to post numbers that are as good as last year's.

[bay_area_phan]

clout: True, and that's why my flip-of-the-coin analysis really isn't valid. However, it's also invalid in the opposite way. A player who hits poorly for an extended period of time can easily lose confidence and fall into bad habits, causing things to go from bad to worse. That seems to be what's happening with Howard right now & that's precisely how you end up with outliers like Pat Burrell's 2003 season. I would submit that guys who strike out a lot, like Burrell & Howard, are much better candidates for the occasional horrendous season than a guy like Rollins or Victorino, who tend to put the ball in play.

[MG]

Actually I don't expect the starting pitching to back slide much. If anything, you can expect Myers to pitch a bit better than he has so far.

What is going to be the real bogey man for this staff is the inevitable injury or two. Yeah Happ has had a few nice starts in a row but I don't see any viable pitching alternatives at Allentown.

Means the Phils will have to reach down to Reading or lower to call someone up. Maybe it works out like Kendrick but more often than not the Phils will come up with snake-eyes.

[kells]

Joe Kerrigan was on WIP & blamed Myers velocity struggles on being out of shape. He stressed how important core training & long tossing were to maintain velocity & cited petite & Pedro as prime examples.
I agree that Myers is way overweight but he's been fat for the past 5 years & it never affected his velocity.
He also mentioned the Phills pitching has excelled because their starters are 2nd in the NL in inning's pitched.
My only concern is that Charlie is going to kill Lidge's arm & refuse to give Gordon sufficient rest between appearences.

[MG]

If this first month of this season and Sept. last year taught us, this bullpen can be pretty solid but EVERYTHING has to fall into place. That is just why I am leary of them having such continued success although they have more options in the pen than any time since 2005.

[Bedrosian's Beard]

Happ really is turning it around phinally. He's 0-4 for the Pigs, but is close to the league lead in K's and had an era under 3.

[JD Farmer]

It looks like the standings on MetsBlog is measuring only losses.

Why have the Phillies already played 3 more games than the Mets? That should work to the Phillies benefit at some point.

[Dave X]

Looking at xFIP (basically what a pitchers ERA should be) versus ERA, it should show that Lidge, Romero, Durbin, and Seanez are pitching way over their heads. Hamels and Moyer are to lesser amounts. The problem is, those who have been unlucky so far are nowhere near as unlucky as people like Romero or Durbin have been lucky.

[johnnysanz3]

I don't think the bullpen is being overused at all really. As long as the starters pitch a lot of innings like they have been, the bullpen will have a good chance of keeping up this pace without injury. Of course, injuries sometimes happen just by chance, not by overuse, so there is always that possibility. I think even if your starters aren't great, it's very important and good for the team for them to pitch deep into games.

[johnnysanz3]

I don't understand the xFIP stat too well, actually the first time I heard of it right now. But I agree on Romero, Durbin, and Saenez pitching way over their heads. But Lidge has seemed lights out lately. In his first few appearances he gave up more walks and such but lately he hasn't given up walks/hits or anything. So, I think unless he has a mental breakdown from blowing a save he should be like this most of the year.

[clout]

Our old friend Bobby Abreu is at .306 with an .815 OPS and on pace for his 6th straight 100 RBI season.

[clout]

BAP: I agree that the streaky hitters tend to be power hitters. My only point is that there are a lot of streaky hitters in baseball and I believe Howard will end up near career norms.

Conversely, while you say it's getting late for him to make up ground, I'd say Paul Bako is not going to finish the season at .312 with a .916 OPS either (unless he breaks his leg tonight).

[AWH the RBP]

yeah, clout, but he's a butcher in the field so he must suck...at least according to some people here........oh, and he's a cancer in the clubhouse...etc.etc.etc.

[Reed]

dump Condrey and sign King, so other NL Easters can't use him vs. Ut and Howard. Condrey is a dime a dozen.

[Drew]

MetsBlog lists the standings in "Losses Back" because: "why losses back? because you can always win more games, but you cannot get less losses."

[Bob]

My opinion of Abreu was always that he could take a lawn chair out to right field with him as long as he hit .300. Not everyone is a 5-tool player. Abreu is a hitter. That's what he gets paid to do. Is he lazy and dumb at times? Yes.

[bay_area_phan]

clout: Streak hitters aside, a statistician could undoubtedly take a player's current and lifetime batting average (or whatever stat you like), & the number of games already played in a season, and predict, within a certain confidence interval, the likelihood that the player will reach his career norms in that season. To give 2 extreme examples, if Ryan Howard were hitting .225 after 145 games, I think it could be predicted with near 100% certainty that he wasn't going to hit .260. On the other hand, if he were hitting .225 after 5 games, then his present average would have very close to zero significance in predicting his final numbers. While some players are definitely more streaky than others, there are undoubtedly some sort of general projections than can be made, regardless of the individual player. In fact, it could literally be charted out.

Though I know of no such chart, I suspect that, with an average as low as Howard's is right now, the date can't be too far off at which a statistician could predict, with about 90% confidence, that he isn't going to hit .260 for the season. My guess is that date would fall sometime around the end of May or beginning of June.

[city fan]

Could someone explain to me what the Phillies are intending to do with the salary situation involving Hammels?

For instance, Chad Durbin is making nearly double Hammels salary, 900,000 to 500,000.
Adam Eaton is making 8,000,000.
Eric Bruntlett is making 600,000 to Hammels 500,000.

Why is a stud like Hammels making Clay Condrey money? Are the Phillies going to give this guy the contract he deserves, and if so, when?