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« Some things will change, others will stay the same | Main | Game chat: Rubber match has homegrown flavor »

Thursday, May 01, 2008

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I'd hardly call losing the reigning MVP for 1/6th of the season as "getting off easy"

I tend to agree with mbtoole a bit here. While the injuries the Phils have really aren't THAT bad compared to some teams, losing Rollins and a lesser extent, Vic has hurt the team.

I'm more worried about what may happen when (I didn't say if) Flash Gordon goes down. I think it's only a matter of time. The Phils will have to lean more heavily on Durbin (who's been great) and Ryan Madson (not so great).

It's tough relying on an injury-prone 40 year old. I hope he continues to surprise us. He is a key to our bullpen. Luckily the other key has been lights out.

part of the reason they've remained afloat is their bench.

I think what Jason's saying is imagine if our whole bullpen went down. Who would we replace them with? Soriano, Gonzalez, and Moylan are their three best relievers. Imagine if we lost Lidge, Gordon and Romero. Who would close, Durbin? Who would pitch the rest of the innings? We'd be relying on people like Shane Youman. Compared to that, losing a couple of position players is nothing. When you lose your best relievers, there's a huge trickle-down effect. When you lose a position player, you just replace him with an inferior backup. Of course, it weakens your bench a little, but we haven't really been forced to rely on Bohn or Harman to do anything yet.

Phils have a $4.5MM option for Gordon for next year (else, a $1MM buyout). Lets say he basically pitches the rest of this season like he has in April, but spends, say, 30 days on the DL. Do you exercise next year's option? At a net price of $3.5MM, and the lack of bullpen arms around the league - I say "Yes".

About Dobbs doing better as a pinch-hitter, maybe the more pitchers see of him and his swing, the better they're able to get him out. (I guess one way you could test this theory is to see whether he hits better in his first at-bat of games he starts as opposed to his second or third or fourth.) Another possibility is simply that pinch-hitters usually face relievers, and relievers aren't as good as starters. They also tend to mostly throw fastballs, and Dobbs is a fastball hitter. Not a lot of relievers who throw a ton of curveballs.

Actually, that sounds very similar to what happened to the Phillies last year. In fact, the injuries were so bad, and the depth was so poor that Phils second best pitcher (on paper anyway) ended up in the bullpen, only to eventually get injured himself. Not to mention that this is the second year in a row where the MVP of the league has been injured early for this team. I'm not saying that the Phils would be as scrappy and reproduce last season with comparable situations in this season, but they certainly did last season. To a more limited extent they have done it this season. Losing the MVP and a guy that was an integral piece of a winning team, is not exactly something that should be scoffed at.

For these reasons, you won't see me shedding any tears for the Braves or the Mets. It is there problem that they are relying on 50 year old/injury prone guys in the starting staff.

"Their problem"

The Braves have had it tough with bullpen injuries....but losing Rollins has been tough as well.

Neither team is happy with their situation.

I think Atlanta has had it the worst. They've lost their three best bullpen arms and Tom Glavine, John Smoltz and Mike Hampton are all either on the DL or have spent time there. That's brutal. It doesn't look like Hampton will be back any time soon (although couting on him was dumb). And it looks like Smoltz may be set to rescue the bullpen at the expense of the rotation.

The Mets have also lost 2/5ths of their starting rotation plus Moises Alou is yet to play and their starting catcher has missed time.

However, losing the top two players in your lineup is hardly an easy thing to overcome. I'm really looking forward to being full strength soon!

Clueless John Smallwood on DNL just criticized the Phills for not keeping Gavin Floyd. Although Floyd may be gaining confidence-he obviously needed a change of scenery. Do members of the media actually watch games?

Kells-You're right, that is a very clueless comment. I happen to think that Gavin will come back to earth soon. But even if he doesn't, one can never critcize the trade. Shame-I used to like Smallwood.

hmmm . . . tom glavine, john smoltz, mike hampton, moises alou and pedro martinez are injured?!

no way! I could never have predicted that happening a month ago.

they made their bed, and I am very content to watch them lie in it.

And if Pat Gillick were relying on such players, I guarantee there would be no sympathy for him here.

Also keep in mind that we might have an injured Myers on our hands. And if Eaton doesn't look sharp tonight, he might be injured, too. And Kendrick and Moyer are always sort of on the bubble (Kendrick not injury-related, but talent-related), so we might be on the verge of joining the pitching injury fest.

gavin floyd's opponents baibp = .135

I think its safe to say he will be coming back down to earth.

How much did they really miss Victorino? They replaced a slumping hitter with Werth, who was excellent...

The loss of J-Roll certainly hurts. No question. But when you look around the league, see the carnage, and see that our ENTIRE pitching staff is healthy, there's simply no question the injury bug hasn't hit us as hard as other clubs. No question.

sorry . . that's .170, but the point remains

We're already calling up the likes of Bohn and Harman. If we needed more help from the minors, its scary to think what lies beneath.

I have the same feelings, ftd. Rollins is extremely durable. Most of these other players aren't spring chickens, though to be fair, this is Glavine's first trip to the DL in his career. If we lost Gordon, I'd say we had it coming.

Why should John Smoltz be included on that list? He pitched 200+ innings for that last three seasons. If I wanted to win right now, this season, I'd take Smoltz over any of our guys besides Hamels ...

Bonehead: No, you do not pick up Flash's option, even if he has a career year. He's got a frayed (if not torn) labrum. Hopefully the Phils have learned their lesson when it comes to signing (or trading for or re-signing) pitchers with injured arms. Either save the money and bring up a minor leaguer or spin the money to buy a healthy arm in free agency.

JW - no question the phils have been lucky with the staff, with the likes of Gordon, Myers, and Eaton. Even Madson.

Jeltz-You're probably right about Flash. I guess that I trust the Phil's medical staff to properly identify injured players (he said sarcastically).

How much did they really miss Victorino? They replaced a slumping hitter with Werth, who was excellent...

Because of the domino effect on this team it had. It meant the Phils had to bring up Bohn (marginal player at best) and give Taguchi a bunch of starts in which he really struggled/exposed. Bohn has no business on a decent MLB roster becuase he doesn't bring one strong skill and Taguchi is best utilized at this point as a late-innings guy.

j - true. lack of research there on my part. I didn't realize he had been so reliable in recent years . . . though he has a bit of a history with elbow problems.

If im not mistaken this is what prompted the initial move to closer?

Stark posts this on Myers:

Scouts also have a theory on the dipping velocity of another Phillie, Brett Myers, whose fastball barely topped 88 miles per hour last Sunday: He has gotten too cutter-happy.

"He can fall in love with that cutter, and cutters over the long haul take velocity away from you," said one scout. "Historically, that's been true with a lot of guys who throw an excess amount of cutters. Then, when they try to go back to their fastballs, it's not there."

Tray: You captured my point exactly.

Tray:
You mean Myers got narcissistically infatuated with something he was doing and wasn't thinking about the long-term indications? Are you sure you're talking about our Brett Myers? Surely he would never be that self-centered and egotistical. Right?


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{Okay; I was being sarcastic.)

why does a cutter take velocity away from your fastball?

I'm no scout, but when a guy is throwing 95-96 in the two weeks prior to not being able to hit 90, I would not attribute that to throwing a cutter. What does it suddenly, and without notice, sap all of your velocity? If that were the case, I would be throwing harder than Mariano Rivera. He's been throwing almost exclusively cutters for years. I don't buy that theory at all. Unless someone can give me some evidence of a guy throwing a bunch of cutters and then having his velocity disappear like his arm went through the Bermuda Triangle.

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