Some things will change, others will stay the same

Behind Pat Burrell and Chase Utley, the Phillies finish April with a 15-13 mark, third in the NL East loss column and a half game behind the Marlins. We preview the bats for the month of May.

The next 30 days could generate a whole new list of heroes and goats as the weather warms up and teams learn more about their strengths and weaknesses. Don’t be surprised when underachievers, like Ryan Howard, start hitting, and when overachievers, like Pat Burrell, cool off – Burrell has already quietly cooled since the Pittsburgh series.

Notice the word “when,” not if. Just as Burrell has managed to pull his season totals to consistent levels the last three seasons (128, 122, 127 OPS+ since 2005), history tells us he will eventually fall back to earth. And that’s okay, because the worst is behind Howard, based on past history. The same holds true for Shane Victorino, a streaky hitter to begin with, whose worst month is also behind him.

Areas of legitimate concern: It looks like Carlos Ruiz can’t hit left-handed pitching, and Pedro Feliz hasn’t hit lefties since 2005. Ruiz is hitting .167/.211/.222 against southpaws in 2008, dropping his career line to .197/.273/.331, and Feliz has an OPS below .670 against southpaws for the third year in a row. Eric Bruntlett is only a temporary measure (overstaying his welcome more than we’d like), but Ruiz and Feliz could literally and figuratively put the ‘Zs’ into the everyday lineup all season long.

Then there’s Geoff Jenkins. It’s been a good, long while since Jenkins got hot for a prolonged period of time, and at 33, that’s a problem. Actually, since June of last season, he’s been an average or below average hitter. But between Ruiz, Feliz and Jenkins, expect slight improvement over their terrible starts, especially Jenkins, who will definitely contribute more than four RBIs.

That leaves Rollins, Utley and Jayson Werth, and Greg Dobbs and Chris Coste in part-time roles, as the players I look toward for more of the same, Werth being the biggest surprise of this group. His discipline, clean bill of health and age lead me to believe this could be a breakout season. Coste isn't going to hit .400, but why shouldn't we expect .280-.300 and pop? And as for So Taguchi, he's going to help this team yet.

And maybe, just maybe, healthy, aggressive, studly Burrell, the one who earns my vote for Phillies' MVP so far, can keep up this torrid pace, or at least something close.

Comments

[Jimmie J.]

Looks like Rollins recovery has been slower than thought. Don't want to rush Jimmie but after watching his backup in the first inning last night vs. Padres, I'm beginning to get a bit more concerned.

[ABP]

Can we keep track of Pedro Feliz's double play success rate? I don't know if that stat is kept, but I'd love to know the percentage of times Feliz hits into a double play when given the opportunity. Based on nothing but my gut, I am confident that he leads the majors.

[Jonesman]

I hope Charlie finds a way to work some Dobbs starts at 3rd in. I would give him half of the starts against righties at least. It is also clear that Coste should be starting every time they face a lefty, although I doubt he will be in there tonight. He can really help to offset what is usually a weak lineup against southpaws.

[from the district]

what's the rationale for burrell being the phillies mvp rather than utley?

Utley's been the mvp of both leagues so far

[Bloodbath McGrath]

ABP: I was thinking the same thing. Turns out, he is. According to baseball reference, Feliz leads the NL with 8 gidp's. Big Papi is doing his best to keep pace in the junior circuit.

[from the district]

oh that's right burrell leads the league in isolated studliness

[mike cunningham]

Re: Feliz and the GIDP before the seasons started, some anti-feliz beerleaguers predicted that Feliz would lead the league in GIDP when his career stats never indicated that he would hit into more DP this year than any other. He hit behind players just as slow as Burrell and Howard in SF so it wasn't like speed was an issue. It's almost like beerleaguers WILLED this to happen.

Feliz's GB to FB rate is an alarming 1.84. His career rate is 1.10. He has been consistently a little over 1 to 1 in his career GB to FB. In this ballpark, that Fly Ball Rate should translate into a good amount of home runs.

Feliz's speed (or lack thereof) is another factor. The second DP yesterday was a slow hit ball hit into the hole. And the throw beat him easily. I think Burrell would have beat that throw out. He doesn't look as slow as he is. It's bizarro world.

Anyway... I blame clout for Feliz's lack of success. Feliz probably spent the offseason reading that he is the WORST OFFENSIVE 3RD BASEMAN and just believed it. :)

I want to say that this first month is an abberation. Some of his splits are not matching up to his career norms nor his rate from the last 3 years. Look at things like the difference of numbers with Men on base and with no on. It just doesn't match up.

He should still end up last in OPS+ among 3rd baseman, but he should show improvement over his current process.

On another side, many Beerleaguers were sick of Feliz before he strapped on his gear for Opening Day. For the first time last night it seemed the crowd was getting a picture of Feliz that clout et al have been painting. After his second DP he was booed heartily. Then with the inning change, it was time to wish happy birthday! Feliz' picture flashes on screen to wish fans in attendance happy birthday in Spanish. And was booed lustily again.

[GM-Carson]

Ryan Howard better start hitting or we're screwed.

[Bob]

mike cunningham: This paints an alarming picture. Hopefully there is some Feliz upside to be, but if he doesn't start pulling it together soon, I could see the fans getting on him on a regular basis, him going into a funk, and the whole thing spiraling downward.

Also was curious about the Burrell selection for MVP thus far. My gut feel was that Chase could be the league MVP for April. Wondering if there isn't a bit of "Hey, Utley's just being Utley, albeit at a little higher level. But Pat is rising well above his norm, let's give him the kudos while we can, Utley will have many more days in the sun."

Anyway, both have been great and key to the point that without both of them doing what they have, it could have been a really dismal April.

[mike cunningham]

@Carson -- one good thing, Howard has only struck out once in the last 7 at bats. For a guy who just the other day was hitting .400 if Strikeouts were hits, that might be a sign of improvements.

My buddy Scott had a great line on Sunday after Maholm's 2K complete game. He said,

"Maholm only had TWO strikeouts and Ryan Howard had THREE of them."

[Lake Fred]

Jason, nicely written header for this thread. I also enjoyed your write-up on Hamels a few threads back, linking the Carlton to Schilling to Hamels analogy. My late father would probably add Robin Roberts before Carlton. Perhaps, Jim Bunning would fit in between Roberts and Lefty, but his stay in Philly wasn't long, but his numbers were ace-like while here. He is often overlooked because he pitched for the Phillies at the height of the Koufax-Marichal-Gibson era.

On this header subject, you neglected to mention pitching. The starters are inconsistent. They all pitch good games and bad games. I would not wager any money on the Phillies based on who's starting on the mound. The hitters waste good starting pitching efforts by sleeping at the bat. My stating concerns are as follows:

Myers - headcase that always shows promise, but messes up a lot, too.

Hamels - Gives up the long ball, but is the terror of opposing batters.

Kendricks - appears to be getting on track.

Moyer - Amazing old man is usually solid.

Eaton - has suprised me so far. I expect zero.

Bullpen - has surprised me, too. Romero, Durbin, Flash & Seanez have been superb. Lidge is the real deal. Mad Dog and Condrey scare me.

[J. Weitzel]

District: Both Burrell and Utley have been great. The difference for me is that no part of Burrell's game has let me down, while Utley struggled defensively in the early part of the month.

[joe l]

For what it's worth, SI.com has a fan survey of MLB Ballpark Rankings.

[chris]

I really think the Phils should look at giving Dobbs 4 starts a week at 3B.

[from the district]

While Utley has made a lot of errors, its tough to see the argument that Burrell has done more to help the team win games with his glove than Utley has (or done less to help the team loose games)

There are parts of Burrell's game that always let you down, (ie his speed which dramatically limits his range and baserunning) and just because you expect them to doesn't make him the more valuable player.

in any case . . . its a nit-picky point, they both have been amazing.

[bigmyc]

Yes, but Utley has made far more impressive, "wow" type plays.....I'm sure you'd agree.

[bigmyc]

While Utz lost a game due to the untimeliest of errors, he also won one with a stab of a ball that was destined to bust the game open for the opposition....

[MG]

MVP this April has to be someone from the bullpen (along not choosing Utley or Burrell is a tough call) - I go with C. Durbin. Maybe his overall numbers don't jump out to you but he is emblematic of what this pen has accomplished so far and more importantly he has kept games close (and the Phils have comeback to win a few of them) and put out a few fires when he has had to come in.

[Bonehead]

Cholly has always been pretty good at awarding playing time to the hot hands, and to the better contributors. I foresee Dobbs and Coste to now begin to take more ABs from Felix and Ruiz.

[J. Weitzel]

Not interested in arguing over Burrell and Utley. Both have been great.

[Bonehead]

I agree with JW that a healthy Burrell, with his better approach at the plate, may be able to put up real good numbers all year.

[J. Weitzel]

Bonehead: That's what I hope, but the thing with Burrell is that at the end of the day, he gives you pretty much the same production every season.

[joe k]

I understand that Burrell will cool off, and inevitably hit .275/30/115ish. But I just hope, he doesn't have one of his unbearable cold streaks, jumping away from the inside pitch, and pulling his head way out on swinging strike three. Also, you have to hope he keeps up his clutch hitting, which has really been the biggest difference so far this year.

[Jimbo Jones]

I'm agreeing with the MG on this one. Except I'm just going to give the reward to the entire bullpen. I can't remember how much nitpicking and negative comments were made toward the state of our bullpen before this season again and that's who I'm tipping my hat to. Though in one run games and extra innings games I wouldn't mind a few more w's. I can take this month as a victory especially with J-Roll out, Ryan Howard finding his stroke, and amidst Brett Myers struggles. This will pay huge dividends down the road.

[Reverend]

Where does Burrell's numbers over the last couple of years stand against the rest of the Left Fielders over the same period of time? How would he be ranked against them?

[Gaze]

I'm fine with Burrell's numbers the past few seasons, I just hope he continues to put them up at meaningful times instead of padding his stats once the game is already out of reach.

[PB]

I know of lot of people might disagree with me, but I'd like to see Werth stay on as the Phils' everyday centerfielder and platoon Victorino and Jenkins in right. Victorino's arm is more of an asset in right, and I think Werth has earned the right to play everyday. I've said before on here, but I'd like to give Werth a shot to hit righties everyday.

[CJ]

I'm not disappointed in Pedro Feliz so far. He is exactly what I expected him to be. Terrible at the plate. Maddeningly so. And good in the field (but not great by any stretch).

It's a terrible, terrible signing and he deserves less and less playing time.

His offensive production so far is worse than what Helms gave us last year (Feliz OPS+ 62, Helms OPS+ 68). And his defense hasn't been nearly good enough to make up for his rally-killing tendencies. He leads the league in GIDPs and his OBP is down to .265.

How do we find out if Feliz is on pace to set a record for outs created/plate appearance.

[CJ]

PB: Werth has a plus arm but Vic covers significantly more ground in center. It makes no sense to play Vic in right if he's in the starting lineup.

Gaze: When did Burrell pad his stats in games that were out of reach?

Reverend: I'll go back and look, but I'm pretty sure that Burrell's production over the last few years makes him a top-5 LF. Maybe I'm remembering that wrong, but I'll try to look.

[sifl]

Gaze: In fact, so far this year Burrell tends to put up his big stats when it matters most. The stat that reflects this most is WPA, and I recognize all of its shortcomings, but the man right now *LEADS THE MAJORS* in WPA with 2.24 win shares. Chase is still great, but he's currently 12th with 1.06.

[PB]

CJ: But the way Werth is playing, you would really force him back into a platoon situation with Jenkins? Before injury, yes, Victorino just started to hit, and yes, he does cover more ground, but out of the two of them, Werth deserves a spot in the lineup everyday, wherever that is.

[CJ]

PB: I didn't say that... but even if you have Vic and Jenkins trade starts, every time Vic starts, he should be in center field. Just have Werth move back and forth. I would give Werth 5-6 starts a week right now.

[clout]

I have nom p-ersonal anomosity toward feliz. I just thought, and posted repeatedly, that he was the worst of all the options being kicked around on beerleaguer for an upgrade at 3B.

A trade for Joe Crede, signing Morgan Ensberg, convincing Iguchi to play 3B, dealing for Wigginton, all these things were mentioned and all were better options. As far as I know only Jack, Tray and kdon declared Feliz the best off-season option. The numbers (the legit ones, not the fantasy zone rating ones) said he'd hurt more on offense than he'd help on defense. So far the numbers have been right.

[PB]

CJ: I see your point

My only worry is Jenkins. He's making too much money to be a "bench player", and I'm just concerned he will take away from Werth's playing time with Vic back in the lineup.

So you wouldn't have a problem with Vic/Jenkins sharing time?

[clout]

Jason: You make a good point about Feliz's bad numbers vs. LHP over the past 3 seasons, but the fact is, his numbers vs. RHP are terrible (.712 OPS) too, especially for a power spot like 3B. I'd sit him vs. RHP simply to get Dobbs' bat into the lineup, which is head and shoulders better than Feliz's vs. RHP.

[mike cunningham]

it seems fairly simple to play vic against lefties, vic against righties, werth every day. Spelling Werth on the occasional TOUGH right hander and go with Vic and Jenks.

I dont' know why that would be too difficult.

[DOB]

Gaze-Burrell isn't even normally in games that are out of reach. He's on the bench.

[CJ]

PB: Yeah, I would start Werth on most days... sitting him only against tough righties. And then platoon Vic vs. lefties and Jenkins vs. righties.

[PB]

the odd man out most certainly should be Jenkins

I wouldn't even mind seeing Vic replacing Burrell late in games on the days he doesn't get the start

[MG]

There is no need to continue the beatdown parade on Feliz offensively. What I have been diasspointed with is that his defense has been as good as advertised and yet Cholly continues to start him 5 times a week. Don't understand that. Said since the first week that Dobbs should be starting 2-3 week against RHP.

[MG]

Interesting thing has been the starting rotation which has largely struggled with Hamels. Take out his numbers and the Phils' rotation has been pretty awful actually.

The number of Quality Starts gets mentioned ad nauseam but that is an example of garbage stat. What I am have more interested in is how Cholly has been letting his starts go and really try to get the most amount of innings from them.

I have been one of his most vocal critics for doing this (let your starters go more than 110 or so pitches is really just asking for problems down the road) but I had a thought on this yesterday.

Dubee's has to realize that he has a bunch of huge questions marks out there from a health perspective the least of which is Gordon. In order to keep them effective, it really is beneficial to have your starters give you as many innings as possible.

I wonder if Dubee is trying to spare the wear and tear on the bullpen in the early going because he realizes that a starting staff with Moyer, Kendrick, and Eaton is going to eventually wear heavily on any bullpen.

[sifl]

MG: Yes, Dobbs should be starting nearly 50% of the time. Also, Ruiz should be out there much less often, and Jenkins should be used to spell Victorino and Werth a couple days a week. I'm just getting a little frustrated that we've had some really good pitching, but Cholly insists on running out this black hole at the bottom half of the lineup every single game.

[Willard Preacher]

The bullpen MVP consideration is merited. Let's not forget, however, the intent of the initial thread, essentially talking to the entire "return to the mean" concept. Let's just hope that the Howard breakout coincides with the probable Burrell mini-slump and inevitable bullpen blowup. You can only count on Durbin, Madson and Condrey to NOT screw things up for so long.

[mike cunningham]

@MG -- Quality Starts are not a great stat to indicate an individual pitchers performance. But a teams overall quality start number should be fairl predicative of overall record. Given a league average bullpen and an above average offense, a team with a high amount of quality starts should be one of the top ranked teams in the league.

[Tray]

I don't know when I said that Feliz was a better option than Crede or the best off-season option... I think my position always was only that he'd be an improvement on the proposed Helms/Dobbs platoon. Once the other options ceased to be options and Feliz was the only thing left, I said I'd take him over what we had. As for Iguchi, he didn't want to play third, Ensberg seems to get worse every year (.569 OPS so far) so I just wouldn't take that risk, and Wigginton - he's not half-bad. I'd support Wigginton over Feliz. Same with Crede. Now I'm sure clout will say I'm changing my position, but I just don't recall ever saying Feliz was the best third baseman available. I just defended the signing as an upgrade over what we had.

[mike cunningham]

As for Dobbs starting more, I agree he should start more against RH pitchers. However, his numbers from last year as a starter paled in comparison to his pinch hit numbers. His starter numbers were not significantly better than what Pedro Feliz gives you every day. If they aren't significantly better, offensively and Feliz is marginally better or significantly better depending on who you are, defensively, than Feliz should get more starts.

I think Dobbs is a great bench player and spot starter. As an every day third baseman, I would gather he would be exposed and you wouldn't gain as much more starting him with Feliz coming off the bench. Rather than starting Feliz and having Dobbs as the first or second option off the bench.

Scenario 2 is better for the Phillies.

[MG]

Agreed that Dobbs would get exposed playing every day and that is he a defense liability. Cholly has been playing him a bit more but Dobbs has only started 6 games at 3B (basically once a week).

Feliz has done nothing to show that he should be out there on an everyday basis. If Feliz gets hot (which he can do from time to time), then Cholly should ride it out as long as it seemingly lasts but that certainly hasn't been the case in April.

[MG]

Ruiz also is another guy who has it get it going. He has a horrendous month at the plate (arguably the worst of any starter) and seemed to struggle behind the plate at times. I am going be very curious to see if Cholly continues to basically go with a platoon at C by giving Coste 2-3 starts a week.

[CJ]

mike: In 8 games at third this year, Dobbs is hitting .304. I'm not sure why his numbers were so bad at third last year. It was bizarre.

[J. Weitzel]

MG: I thought Ruiz was struggling behind the plate, too, but then I heard he's been doing a nice job with the pen, especially Gordon. Forget where I read that. It seems true enough; the two have at least two mound conferences per appearance.

[mike cunningham]

@CJ -- the numbers this year would lead me to investigate starting Dobbs more. I'll trust Manuel on this one. But like last year... and this year, 3rd Base is not really our problem this year. It's a problem. But not our biggest concern.

It's the guy batting .173. If he hits just .250, and you project the averages forward for hsi other numbers, I think we'd be leading this division by 3 games right now. And that's without Rollins.

[TC]

I may be the only one who thinks so, but Burrell, to me, appears to be playing defense at a high level (compared only to his norm). He's certainly not Carl Crawford out there, but he's doing a much better job of running balls down that he has previously. I don't know if he's truly healthy for the first time in forever, or if it's just a bit of luck (and the whole "smoke and mirrors" effect), but I really don't think he's been a detriment to the team in the field. At least, not much of one.

[Dave X]

Part of Burrell's improvement is that he's striking out less. That raises his AVG and by extension OBP and SLG too.

[Brian G]

I think Mike C. said it, but... Werth/Vic against lefties, Werth/Jenkins against average righties, and Vic/Jenkins against tough righties.. at least until/if Werth cools down. He shouldn't sit more than once a week in the meantime.

[clout]

Mike C: You think Dobbs bat is magically transformed as a PH? And if he started against RHP at 3B, he wouldn't hit?

[CJ]

clout: I don't believe that... but the numbers from last season weren't very encouraging. Hard to say why the numbers were that bad. I don't think it's a trend that's likely to repeat itself this year.

[mike cunningham]

@clout -- no I'm not saying that at all. I'm just looking at his 2007 numbers as a starter versus a bench player. And the numbers are SIGNIFICANTLY different.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/bsplit.cgi?n1=dobbsgr01&year=2007#role-stsub

As a Sub, he's very good. As a starter, he's just okay. 20% of his plate appearance came as a sub. Yet he had 36% of his RBIs in that role. His batting average is also almost 30 points higher and his OPS is 121 points higher as a sub versus a starter.

Since 92 percent of Dobbs' 2007 Plate Appearances were against Right Handers. I'm just suggesting that his success against Right Handers is skewed by his performance coming off the bench. And that as an everyday player he's league average.