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« Breaking news: Phillies select high school SS Hewitt | Main | Draft notes: Phillies see Hewitt's future at hot corner »

Thursday, June 05, 2008

Comments

BREAKING NEWS!!!!

BREAKING NEWS!!!!

Abraham Nunez is back in the show. The Mets called him up today. Here are some Metsblog comments:

"Abraham Nunez is a fantastic defensive 3rd baseman, and that’s about it. I’m guessing he can play elsewhere in the IF?"

"sucks for pascucci even though nunez is legit."

"Okay, I just looked at some stats. What the hell? Nunez is practically batting 0. Between Tatis and Easley, don’t we have backup infield covered?"

"Nunez is garbage who we picked up off Milwalkee’s scrap heap two weeks ago. The fact he is now on the 40 man roster is disturbing in of itself."

"Nunez has value. He’s a very solid defensive IF. He can play 3b, 2b, and probably be decent at SS in a pinch. I’m sure he can play 1b as well."

FYI: The Phils just drafted another "toolsly" HS outfielder. Anthony Gose projects to either be Juan Pierre or Corey Patterson, according to the MLB.com writeup.

And then they drafted a HS RH pitcher, Jason Knapp.

The business with Rollins is pretty surprising because he's seen as the de facto team leader, at least in terms of being vocal. And Rollins has never seemed to be a player who's ever dogged it. But Jason's right - ever since that first day back off the DL, he's looked like a different player, one who's starting to look a little older and somewhat fatigued.

It's an awfully big statement from Manuel. You have to really like both parties handled it in the clubhouse afterwords. Hopefully it got Jimmy's attention and he'll start off on a tear tomorrow.

RSB: Big statement for sure. J-Roll would seem to be one of those "untouchable" stars. I would imagine Manuel had a pretty good idea that both Rollins and the rest of the team would handle it appropriately. I really like the makeup of this team right now. A good mix of vocal and quiet leaders. Hopefully this fuels Rollins.

Phils take college pitcher Vance Worley from Long Beach St. This is the 2nd time the Phillies have drafted him (20th round 2005).

I don't know what to make of jroll...i've seen him, head down and not running out outs for a while now. It looks to me more like he is dispirited rather than trying to dog it.

Also, I like manuel benching him. You always hear about how he's a 'player's' manager as if it's a bad thing...so far this season, he's consistently made good in-game decisions, and he also handles the personalities well. Hopefully, this will help Jimmy change his fortunes a little bit, help him create a bit of his own luck.

Gose will be a pitcher in a year and it was a very smart pick. He's has the stuff as a LHP to be very very good (like #2 starter good) and he'll see that eventually even if he is ADAMANT about being an OF right now. That was probably the smartest pick of the day for Gillick & Co.

On benching JRoll...probalby one of the best things Charlie has done all season. It takes balls to bench an MVP and team leader but Rollins needed to get his head ripped off.

Supposedly he throws a 93-96 mph FB and a great curve...he's not gonna be an OF for long.

Watching the Scout films on the Phillies' picks is scary. The first two picks seem to strike out or hit with no power. Gose only pitches in the film. J. Hamilton, a 1Ber, bunts on 2 at Bats. He is only 6' and doesn't show any power. These players all look like Jeff Jackson. I obviously do not know how to identify talent. Maybe you guys can explain how they can have all of these picks and waste them all on long-shots.

I get the feeling that Hewitt won't sign...he basically implyed that hte Phillies would have to bust slot to make him give up Vandie...he called it a "life-changing amount" which sounds rather big to me. He sucks anyway and is a hitter who can't hit so he won't be missed. I'd rather get another pick in next year's 1st round than a guy like him anyway. Collier is the same type of player but he can actually hit supposedly. Gose could be the steal of the draft for the Phillies while Hamilton is the "anti-thesis of Ryan Howard" according to Jamees? over at PhuturePhillies...great defense but no power.

They wasted the picks because they refuse to spend money on the draft so they draft guys on signability instead of talent. Thus we get a whole bunch of HS long-shots that may or may not ever contribute above low A ball. 3 pitchers went right after Hewitt that were much better but had signability issues that hte Phillies werent willing to deal with. Gerrit Cole being the prime example of the Phillies being cheap. Cole could be one of the best pitchers if not the best pitcher in the draft but we took Hewitt rather than pay him.

RHP Colby Shreve could be a very good pick if he gets some polish to his game...his delivery is a tad rough to say the least and a little bit inconsistent but he can hurl (93-96 mph). The tape I saw had him sitting at 92-93 but he was reachign back when he needed a little bit extra. He was drafted by the Braves last year but didnt sign.

Larry just hit his 400th home run and is batting .415. What's the last time someone was hitting for such a high average this late?

George Brett maybe? I dont konw they did a thing on it on Baseball tonight a few days back.

CJ: From the last thread . . . I agree the MLB draft is a crapshoot. I do, however, think there are things that teams can do to at least improve the odds of success. One of those things is to take position players who have played against as high a level of competition as possible (with pitchers, it's a different story).

I don't think anyone expected Utley to be this good, but he was an excellent player in a major college program and had played on our national team, against an international level of competition that was pretty good. He was a relatively known entity. It's actually surprising the Phillies took him because he doesn't really fit their profile.

Normally the Phillies (and a lot of other teams) look at college players and conclude that they have low ceilings because they're already 22. But that ignores the fact that the 22-year old has proven he can play at a high level of competition, and will probably be ready to hit the majors in just a couple of seasons -- whereas the 18-year old project will take 5 or 6 years of seasoning and, in all likelihood, will never develop.

I just re-read the Phuture Phillies scouting report on Hewitt. Are we sure he's not related to Golson?

I was at the game today, so I'm going to share a few thoughts. Apologies if this is a longish post from one of Beerleaguer's lurkers:

- First, in re JRoll: Not many people seemed to care/know to find out why he was out (my next topic). Speculation was rampant amid my small circle--injury, sick, lack of hustle. I'm only slightly surprised to see that it was lack of hustle. Last year aside, I've always taken a take-it-or-leave-it view of JRoll. Great fielder, ability to be a great bat, but never really seizing the mantel. I don't know, I just feel that's he'd not lived up to his full ability. Chase and Shane, for two, seem to squeeze every last drop with their hustle, but JRoll just always seemed to play at 80%. Just my humble opinion. That said, last year exception and glad that he took his benching as due medicine.

- Businessperson-special crowds stink. After Griffey flew out in his last at bat, there were a lot of people heading for the exits, Hamels' bid for shutout notwithstanding. Thought that was a bit of a shame.

- It was weird for a three-hit shutout. I didn't feel like a dominating performance, but was nonetheless a solid showing from Hamels. In that regard, I think he's like JRoll. He's got all the talent in the world, but he doesn't flash it all the time. It was almost like he stuck it out because he didn't want to suddenly be the wild card among the starting staff, given that Myers and Eaton have seemed a bit better their past two and three starts, respectively.

- Bottom line: This division is the Phillies' for the taking. They seem well-built and know what they need to do. Today, for instance, the bench came up big (Bruntlett stepping in for the MVP), capitalizing on mistakes (I think scoring on each of the three errors) and seizing the getaway day even when the offense wasn't fully clicking (oh-fer from Chase). On other days, the bullpen doesn't scare you and, typically, bridges nicely, and you'll know that the starters for the most part will keep you in it. And on still other days, the offense can make it a laugher. It's theirs to lose.

"[Hewitt] sucks anyway and is a hitter who can't hit so he won't be missed."

Right. You know all this because what, you read a few things online? Spare us.

"They wasted the picks because they refuse to spend money on the draft so they draft guys on signability instead of talent. Thus we get a whole bunch of HS long-shots that may or may not ever contribute above low A ball."

This is where you really turn senseless. If you're looking to save money, you draft college seniors, because they have no leverage, not high schoolers, who have the most leverage. The only way drafting HS players is a money-saver is if you intend all along to low-ball them so they won't sign.

So let me get this straight -- in your mind, the front office made such a big deal in the press the past week about restocking the farm system because they intend to blow these picks on guys who won't sign? Seriously, dude, lay off the crack pipe.

Tray - It's been a really, really long time since anyone was over even .410 this late. I'm guessing Ted Williams actually, but I didn't go back far enough to find out. On June 5, 1957 (not his best year, but a good one) Williams was still hitting .401. More recently, however, Tony Gwynn, in 1997, was hitting .409 on June 10, was at .402 on the 11th and 12th, and finished in the low .370s.

This far along, I'm sorry to say, Larry's got a chance of making history.

It's still early; if he's hitting over .400 in August I'll pay attention. It's an incredibly difficult pace to maintain, especially for a guy his age who isn't especially fast (to help leg out the occasional infield hit).

Alby:Right. You know all this because what, you read a few things online? Spare us.

All the scouts in the country that said the same thing must be on crack as well. Give me one scouting report, outside the Phillies press release today, that says Hewitt is a good hitter, especially with wooden bats or against comparable competition. You can't because it doesn't exist.

My point was this: HS are by definition very high risk low probablity on ever playing well above the low minors...statistics support this. You, as the genius you appear to be with your brilliant post, would of course already know this. The Phillies have the money to bust slot and get more high reward guys like Gerrit Cole but they choose not to. They choose to act as a small market team when they are in fact one of the largest markets in the country and their ownership group is worth billions. Spare me your party line BS on how great the Phillies drafting is.

Apparently Shreve had TJ surgery last month...definitely another roll of the dice on him.

Alby: Regarding college players having no leverage, Drew was a college player, no?

The success rate for HS draftees is significantly lower than for college players. But often the ceiling is higher.

NEPhan's point was about paying above slot. It would be very, very hard to argue that Hewitt is a better prospect than Cole.

No-hit Nunez is pinch-hitting(!?) for the Mets.

Ground-out to SS

Ah man, some kind of action in Boston today! Brawl-city... good stuff!

Yeah, that bum Rollins has obviously never lived up to his potential. A Gold Glover, and MVP, and a 30-30 guy, but big deal. He should have done that every year. Plus 250 hits and 75 steals. At least!

According to ESPN, Paul O'Neill had a .430 average on June 5, 1994.

C'mon Pads.

Wow, Schoeneweis blew up there.

Blew the game on a HBP. Wow.

Cubs now 17-3 against the NL West.

Cubs:

4-4 against the East
18-15 against the Central
17-3 against the West

According to Jayson Stark (via MLBtraderumors):

Rockies: In addition to Matt Holiday and Brian Fuentes, there is a slim chance that Aaron Cook would be made available, but his salary goes up $1MM per year if he is dealt.

Mets fan here. Was wondering what you guys thought of Chipper's career season at age 36?

Here are his last 4 seasons, in terms of games played: 137, 109, 110, 134.

Suddenly he is hitting .400, and is on pace for 157 games? How has the specter of steroids not been raised here? He has been declining for 4 straight years, and now he is on pace for career bests in everything, including (nearly) games played?

Anyway, just wondered what you guys thought about this. I don't have a lot of doubt that most of the guys in the MLB used 'roids at one point (Delgado, etc), but I am sort of surprised no one is talking about this.

Not only am I glad that he benched Rollins for not running out the routine pop-up, but his offense needs some help! Milt Thompson where are you?

Well, there's the Thinking Fan's Guide to Baseball. If we can't explain it, it must be steroids! The first thing you think isn't, wow, maybe this guy's really honed his game and re-established himself as an elite hitter - no, the first thought is STEROIDS!

Hey, did you see that Jose Reyes hit a homerun yesterday? In SAN DIEGO? Must be STEROIDS! Hey, you know that shot Griffey hit to center in the ninth today? Well, it would have been out - if he was still on STEROIDS! And no one talks about this? Get on the ball, you guys.

I think that:

a) he hasn't been declining for 4 straight years, that in fact, his season he had last year was his best since 1999 (.337/.425/.604)

b) there's nothing suspicious about his being healthy - from 1996-2002, he missed no more than 6 games in a season, so it's not like it's unprecedented

c) his power numbers aren't way up, which, as little as we know about steroids, seems to argue against your little hypothesis

and d) that his high average is at least part luck - he's hitting .411 when he puts the ball in play, which is 94 points higher than his career average, and since it isn't as if he's hitting the ball really, really hard* or running really fast, I have to conclude it's largely luck.

Take a look at his hit chart:

http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/
individual_player_hitting_chart.
jsp?playerID=116706&statType=1

Salisbury article today describes a Manuel reaming of the team after their loss in Washington. They're 12-4 since.

Just came out in the discussion of JRoll yesterday.

Good morning.

The Rollins thing bugs me and it only partly has to do with Rollins.

I recall very clearly earlier in the season watching Chase Utley hit a long ball and laze up the baseline while I yelled at the TV: "Run, dummy!" It wound up being NOT caught in the outfield. When he saw how it was going out there, then he picked up his pace and made it a double, but if he had been running all along, it was a triple.

So why did Jimmy get benched but Chase did not? Personally, I do not think Rollins gets the credit he is due, and I have not noticed the pattern you all claim to have seen (but I do only actually SEE games that come on basic cable, so I concede that it may exist).

Chase is an excellent ballplayer, yes, but I get fed up with him being treated like The Second Coming when he is not the only excellent ballplayer on the team. Jimmy is hardly turning in a Ryan Howard type performance here.

Here endeth the rant.

RSB, I'll presume you're sarcastic post was aimed at mine. I grant all that, and I did say "last year aside," but IN MY OPINION (which you seem to use a lot for the basis of your posts, at least according to your myriad critics), I think he could/can have been even better since his arrival.

I think his glove has always been underrated, but offensively he'd never been really mentioned among the big three A.L. shortstops back in the day (Jeter, A-Rod, Nomar) and I don't think it's arguable that he hadn't been the prototypical leadoff hitter that his childhood model, Rickey Henderson, was.

The season you point to was his MVP year, and I was proud to make the case for him last year. But overall, as a diehard Phillies fan, I've always wanted more from him. Is it too much to want more from someone with his talent, especially given what he showed last year?

I can't believe No-Hit Nunez is back in the bigs...wow.

Not impressed with the draft yesterday. Phils went their typical route of "toolsy" guys that seem like projects rather than sure things. Drafting one project in the early rounds with high-rish high-reward is fine, but a stable full of them spells disaster.

I may be the only one out there impressed with the draft yesterday. I really liked the fact that we went out there and got alot of guys with very high ceilings for our outfield future. That is one position which was lacking alot of prospects within the organization. Now today they have to try to focus on getting the top HS pitchers that might be headed to college and overpay for them to play professionally and bypass college. I'm not one that really likes getting college kids. Especially pitchers. There has been much research that shows college pitchers on average last 400 innings less in a career than a hs kid.

Tonight starts the buzz saw of a June schedule. Although I have no reason but to be optimistic after this home stand, I think we'll learn a lot about this team over the next nine games, there shouldn't be an easy game. The Braves are really(!)tough at home, we might be seeing the unraveling of the Marlins after a horrible road trip or they might right the ship at home and the Cards are always tough, especially at home. Although I certainly have my eyes on the division, the Cards series is also important as they're looking like the wild card leader.

I would be surprised with a 5-4 trip which I would be happy with.

Sorry, that was supposed to be "wouldn't be surprised".

I'm not too concerned about Rollins. In fact, JW, no offense, but I don't think it even merits it's own thread.

On the draft .... who knows? The Phillies' oxymoron (brain trust) seem to have unerring faith in their own ability to pick guys like Hewitt and turn them into MLB players. I wonder what THEIR percentages are, because the only position player on the current roster is Rollins. Uts, Ryno and Burrell were college guys, so they seem, anecdotally at least, to have a better track record there than with HS players.


Last but not least:

Here comes one tough road trip. IMO, anything between 4-5 and 5-4 would be succesfull. If they manage 6-3, I'll be elated. After that, the Red Sox, Angels, A's and Rangers.

IMO, June will be the defining month for this team. They need to have a better month than the Dbacks did in May.

I'll be more impressed with the draft if they actually manage to sign all their top picks. I doubt it will happen though. Hewitt is supposed to be a tough sign, Gose may be as well and Shreve (despite his TJ surgery) is supposed to be as well somehow. If they manage to get all of them and convince Gose he's a pitcher, then I think it was a good draft for a team that won't touch guys like Cole with a 10 foot stick.

Could someone explain how the media never caught wind of the tirade after the nats lost isn' the media usually waiting outside the clubhouse to interview the players, ? the salisbury article said it was basically loud also, i mean if it was closed door you would think the media would have their ears up to the door, or was there some unspoken code of not reporting what happened.

@ Wally (Mets fan):

I dislike the Braves about as much as I dislike the Mets, and Larry "Chipper" Jones is definitely not on my favorites list. However, I think your steroid suggestions are ridiculous, or at least targeted at the wrong Jones. Andruw Jones would be a reasonable, if not strong candidate for steroid accusations, Chipper not so much.

Chipper's body size has not increased at a cartoonish rate like Andruw's/Bonds/MCguire. He is not hitting for that much more power, and he has always hit for average.

If all that is needed for steroid accusations is increased production, then anyone would be suspicious. Chase Utley would be suspect #1, but that is just ridiculous. If there was ever a guy that was not on roids its Utley (And Cole Hamels for that matter).

Here is a thought: Maybe guys like Chipper/Utley/Berkman were never on roids to start with, but now that a bunch of pitchers are off the roids, they suddenly have an advantage that they may not have had against the same guy, roided up. That makes more sense to me.

THeDude: "There has been much research that shows college pitchers on average last 400 innings less in a career than a HS kid."

That makes sense, given the college kid is 4 or 5 years older. But you understand, I hope, that the chances of a HS draftee actually making it to the major leagues are far smaller than those of a college pitcher, right?

BTW, there is nothing inherently wrong with drafting guys based on athleticism rather than baseball skills (it is the Braves philosophy). But if you go that route you have to have very astute scouting, the ability to project an athlete's learning curve, ability to take instruction and an idea of just what baseball skills he can achieve. There is no evidence that the Phillies evaluators are that skilled.

Lacking that skill, the wiser course is to choose the best available slot-signable college player. Actually, the best course of all would be to choose the best player period even if it requires paying above slot, but the Phillies rarely do that.


Parker - good analysis, IMO. Tray, too.

(Both/and - no need to fight ala Snakes/Pods!)

I do believe that a) Larry, in his long career (during the drug-induced stupor of the '90s) has seen much better pitching than is currently on the schedule and b)he has an insane BABIP.

Here's the problem with the Phils' draft, as I see it. Even though no pick is a sure thing, and even though you need to take a few gambles here and there, the Phils roll the dice very, very often. If they went for the unexpected Hewitt first, because they think he'll be a monster (hey, maybe), then they should be using a couple (many? all?) of the next early picks to take guys who were expected, to even out their chances. It seems like, in the crap-shoot of the draft, they keep trying to roll sevens with one die.

this is a nice list of guys who chased .400 in recent years.

http://www.baseballdigestdaily.com/bullpen/?option=com_content&task=view&id=480

looks like olerud in '93 (aug 2) made it the furthest since brett in '80. i completely forgot about how great olerud was that year.

zp - thanks for the link.

Good to see Nails there. His son Cutter was drafted yesterday.

The biggest "If" in this type of strategy is This will be a great draft "IF" the Phillies can develop the raw talent they gathered. They also need to sign them which might be tough for a few of them.

Good for Manual. Sometimes, you have to make people remember who is the boss and how the Phils do things on the field. J-Roll will be better for this.

Don't know if it was posted here or not, but Happ pitched a gem yesterday in Indianapolis. Took a shutout into the 8th inning. On a hot, very humid day, where the wind was blowing straight out at 20 MPH, he struck out 10, walked no one and finally ran out of gas in the 8th (he threw 120 pitches) and gave up a 2 run HR. Kline came in and promptly gave up 3 more runs and the game finished 9-5 Pigs. Jaramillo has really started hitting recently, and has his average above .250 He has also moved into the 3 hole, which might tell you more about the Pig lineup, then his hitting. And, Jaramillo has also been throwing very well during this stretch. He gunned out another runner yesterday.

Carrasco got hit hard recently and was wild again at AA. Overholt continued his recent struggles with another blown save. Outman got the win in last nights game, but was also wild in his relief appearance.

I'm not a Larry Jones fan, either. I doubt he'll hit .400 for the season, but if he does, good for him. I remember when Denny McLain won 31 games for Detroit. He was not the marquee pitcher name in that era of Koufax, Marichal, Gibson, Drysdale, Seaver, etc., yet he was the only one to do it.

phargo: Apparently rollins got benched because he was a repeat offender and had been warned that he would be benched the next time he didn't hustle. I have no problem with it. Now we know he'll hustle every time in the future. And the rest of the team knows that star players get treated the same as everyone else. I support Cholly on this one.

alby: Welcome back. Haven't seen you much lately. NEPP probably went a little overboard when he conclusively declared that Hewitt sucks. But the fact that he couldn't even hit against good high school pitchers (high school!) tells me that the odds of this guy ever making it to the big leagues are like the odds of Greg Golson becoming the major league career leader in walks. It is pretty frustrating to see the Phillies draft these total long-shot prospects over and over again. I think Rollins has been the only jackpot they've ever hit from that approach.

****NEPP probably went a little overboard when he conclusively declared that Hewitt sucks.****

Guys that can't hit HS pitching tend to scare me away. I agree that I was a tad vehement about it but he got killed last summer against good competition.

From Philly.com: Welinson Baez, once rated among the top prospects in the Phillies' minor-league system, is moving from third base to pitcher.
Baez, who turns 24 next month, was signed for $250,000 in the summer of 2002. At the time, he was viewed as a potential power-hitting third baseman, but his bat never developed. He hit just .241, with 33 homers, in 448 minor-league games, none above single A.

Just to be clear here... Hewitt, generally considered a first or second round talent... is a bad baseball player with little chance of ever making the pros. That's what we're saying here?

If the scouts hate the guy as much as the Beerleaguer "experts" then why did they rank him so highly?

Well, if they're that poor at evaluating talent, it doesn't make sense to go above slot, because they'll likely be wasting their money.

The draft is such a crap shoot, even in the early rounds, that a slot sytem may make more sense than you'd think, even as much as we'd like the team to spend and spend.

****Hewitt, generally considered a first or second round talent... is a bad baseball player with little chance of ever making the pros. That's what we're saying here?****

He is a 1st or 2nd rounder based on his "potential and athleticism". I think the point here is that there were other players available at that pick with the same type of skills that would have been more of a sure thing than a guy that could be the next Ken Griffey Jr if EVERYTHING falls into place but could very easily never make it out of Lakewood. Knowing that guys like SP Garrit Cole and SS Casey Kelly (both considered near top 10 players on skill) were sitting there due to money issues was painful.

To John Salmon: The slot system is great...or at least it would be great if all the teams were REQUIRED to follow it. When only 20 teams go by it and then the Red Sox, Yankees, and Tigers swoop in and bust slot for top players it sucks and should be ignored. Until it is required, it makes no sense to draft with one hand tied behind their back so the Yankees and Red Sox can continue to get top prospects because of their wallets.

I've been noticing lately that J-Roll isn't running out ground balls, and someone mentioned that because it's J-Roll, we let it go. I don't care who it is, there is no excuse for that (other than injury, of course) The Gut did the right thing, and we know that eventually J-Roll will perform at the level that he is capable.

You don't just go around benching the reigning NL MVP. Show some respect Manuel, he's the reason you still have a job.

That was nothing more than a busted play, I've seen many players take worse strolls on plays and nothing was done.

Rollins has been the spark that ignited this team for years now, he isn't down in the dumps, he hustles day in and day out, no one can argue anything else. Manuel, you blew this one. I think you should look yourself in the mirror and question why you still have a job with the Phillies, Jimmy Rollins should be one of the top reasons. This isn't an excuse but you just don't bust down an MVP in public like that, show some respect for the guy.

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