First half suggests Phils' arms have adapted to CBP

Tomorrow night's pitcher, Jamie Moyer, carried a 3.95 ERA into the break. His success is attributable to a 46.9 percent groundball rate, a significant jump over his usual mark.

They say you can’t teach an old dog new tricks. Don’t tell that to Jamie Moyer, the new king of the ground ball. The 45-year-old lefty came to Philadelphia with the understanding that flyballs were part of the package, and that fans should brace for a healthy dose of the long ball in the close confines of Citizens Bank Park. That hasn’t been the case, especially in 2008. Moyer’s GB percentage leads the starting rotation. In 10 home starts, he’s surrendered just seven home runs. That’s outstanding.

Aside from Brett Myers, who’s actually been far worse away from the Bank, the trend is sweeping the pitching staff. Last season, the Phillies allowed 125 homers at home, most in the league. This year, they’ve allowed 51 in 50 home games, which is only fifth most. The bullpen has been particularly good; guys like J.C. Romero, Clay Condrey, Ryan Madson, Brad Lidge and Rudy Seanez – who hasn't given up a home run yet – have even better ground ball rates than Moyer. But even Adam Eaton has been solid in the GB/FB department and hasn't been burned by many home runs.

Moyer is extraordinary. Tuesday on FanGraphs, Dave Cameron pulled some numbers to show that 48 percent of his pitches arrive under 80 mph. “Moyer’s running a 4.35 FIP and 3.95 ERA, his lowest marks since his 2003 season in Seattle,” Cameron writes. “His 5.53 K/9 and 46.8 GB percentage are more in line with a guy who throws a sinker and pounds the bottom of the strike zone with 90 MPH two-seam fastballs.”

Moyer’s secret is simple: He lives down-and-away roughly 35 percent of the time, according to ESPN’s Inside Edge. He’ll mix in his changeup, slider and curveball at any point in the count.

Moyer, quite frankly, makes hitters look stupid. Just ask tomorrow night’s opponent, a mere 0-9 in nine tries against him.

Comments

[rickyj21]

Murton is a borderline 4th outfielder, Patterson is a borderline 4th outfielder, Gallagher is a #4/5 starter in the AL.

[Mike Piazza's Carpenter Crack]

HAHA Joe Blanton. He's the difference maker. Good trade considering you gave up the guy that you took over Joba! Ok seriously guys here is your starting rotation and their respective fastball speeds.

1. Hamels - sits between 90-93 but more often at 91.
2. Moyer - sits between 74-81
3. Kendrick - between 88-92 but more often at 90.
4. Blanton - between 89-92 but normally at 90.
5. Happ - between 88-90.

You see a pattern, yep nobody, including Hamels, that will flat out blow a fastball by you. Hamels confuses and fools the hitters with that devasting change that makes his fastball looks 4-5mph faster than it actually is. The good thing for you is that, at least 4 of the 5 guys really do KNOW how to pitch and will give you a quality start. With that lineup thats all you can ask of the pitcher but will your key position guys in the lineup ever get hot all together. Chances are slim looking at your team's hitting history. Too many hot/cold streaks to let your guys run off a streak of games!

[bay_area_phan]

Anyone else think it's ironic that, for all the talk we heard about how Gillick convinced ownership to open their wallets for a trade-deadline acqusition, we end up bringing in a guy whose prorated salary for the rest of this year is only about $1.5M? Next year, of course, he'll go to arbitration and make Adam Eaton type money -- which means we'll have not one $8M drain on our roster, but two.

[CJ]

rickyj21: And no one the Phils traded is sure to make it in the majors in any form or fashion. I'd be real surprised if Outman is ever more than a lefty out of the bullpen. And you can't compare the potential of Cardenas to the major-league ready talent the A's got.

Complain about this trade on it's own merits... comparing it to the Harden deal doesn't help your cause.

[doubleh]

At the very least, Blanton won't be an automatic loss every 5 days--still could be a loss, but not an automatic one. Maybe it gives the team a mental boost, too.

Hey, I'm searching for some sort of comfort here. I don't love the move, but it's better than nothing.

DAMNIT! Why do they do this to us every time? Feed us a sh*t sandwich and we're so hungry, we say "Please sir, may we have some more?"

I'm trying not to give up, but every fiber of my being says move on and find a better way to spend my evenings.

[clout]

Cardenas WASN'T blocked by Utley. There's not a scout on the planet that thinks he could play 2B in the major leagues. By the time he gets to the bigs he'll be in CF. He was the best prospect in the Phillies system. Period. That said, this deal could work out fine if Blanton reverts to his 2007 form. Keep in mind Lidge was bad for 2 straight years and he rverted bakc to prior seasons. Blanton could too.

P.S. I'll be shocked if the A's don't put Outman back in a starter's role.

[Morty]

Ugh, or, put another way, eh.

[Inside/Outside the Parker]

"B" starter = Blanton. This whole time I was duped into thinking it was Burnett or Bedard. Gillick is a tricky old cuss.

[MG]

A's didn't get a "pile of crap" for Harden but if the wind blows the wrong way Harden is likely to end up on the DL. The A's pitching coach deserves a fair amount of credit for working out a routine this season that finally kept Harden healthy.

Beane traded Harden because he decided it was better to get $.60 on the dollar then be stuck with a broken down pitcher and get nothing.

[Bedrosian's Beard]

Stepping back, I'm not as concerned about Outman as some. I think he's a nice minor leaguer who could stick in the majors, but he might be a good example of a guy that looks better b/c he's in a bad farm system.

I don't necessarily think that Feliz at $4mil is a disasterous "sunk cost".

[rickyj21]

CJ
Long term, I don't think the Cubs gave up more than us. 3 years from now I see Cardenas and Outman being worth more than Gallagher, with the likelyhood of Patterson and Murton not being major league regulars at any point in their careers.

[clout]

rickyj: Murton is a career .291 hitter with a career 104 OPS+. He isn't remotely "a borderline 4th outfielder."

[rickyj21]

If I'm wrong in a year or 2 bash away, but the A's dealt Harden for Gallagher and Blanton for Cardenas.

[clout]

MG: Only an idiot would describe the A's haul for Harden "a pile of crap." The A's got the best of that deal 6 ways from Sunday.

[MG]

Beane may be a talented GM but his crazy constant tinkering with the roster the past few years have killed whatever wider fan interest their was in the A's in the Bay Area. Even though the A's are the better (and frankly more interesting team) in the Bay Area, they get almost zero coverage on local sports talk radio or news outlets. Almost like they aren't a franchise.

[Bedrosian's Beard]

I do think there's a chance this deal works out ok for the Phils, I just don't have the "yay, they made a trade to make the team better" feel, other teams fans probably get.

[THe Dude]

doubleh - we all know that Cardenas was not going to play 2nd base here but there was talk that starting next year at Reading he was going to be groomed to play OF/3rdbase. THe more and more i read, i really dislike this trade. Outman is a quality young lefty arm that might be a starter/or long reliever and Cardenas will be a "professional hitter" for many years. While we get a guy that will be here for 2 years, 45-60 starts, average 6+ innings per start, will go 20-20 in those starts and give us a 4.50 era.

[Inside/Outside the Parker]

Blanton's last few starts read like something out of Adam Eaton's biography. He gets shelled by Seattle, San Francisco, and Arizona. OTOH, he pitches well against the Phillies and White Sox.

I can see the Phillies scouting report: "Hey, he was good against us."

BTW: Great scouting Phillies, maybe you can go sign Shawn Chacon. After all, he did dominate the Phillies, and he assaulted/battered Ed Wade. There is no official indication as to which of those moves by Chacon would weigh more in favor of his acquisition.

[Willard Preacher]

Cardenas still won't play 2b in MLB, even for the A's.

[MG]

Clout - Depends. I can tell you that the few A's fans I know out here are getting pissed off that Beane basically has given up on the season and keeps trading away any marketable player. Hard to root for a team of newbie kids and fill-ins.

[rickyj21]

Sorry, I am willing to take away the borderline part. Murton is a 4th outfielder.

[Willard Preacher]

At least we didn't get a bunch of b.s. from Gillick - he told us all along that he was going to have to go after a "B" pitcher.

[PhillR]

Honestly if we could count on Chacon to assault Gillick, then I would say signing is a no brainer.

[clout]

MG: yeah, it's always lousy when your team throws in the towel on the season. But the A's are stockpiling some xecellent young talent. This will pay off in a few years and maybe sooner.

[clout]

The one scary thing about Blanton is that his K/BB ratio has deteriorated badly this season. That is often a sign of injury.

[MG]

Clout - Beane is basically rebuilding the A's for when their new stadium opens but that isn't until '11 at the earliest. That is an longtime to wait for a decent team filled with players you actually know again.

[Inside/Outside the Parker]

In better news, Santana is looking bad against the Reds.

[rickyj21]

Clout, I've considered you an idiot from the day I found this site, so I guess we're even. I won't bother arguing anymore because its not worth the time of day.

[Brian G]

And why did we have to do this now? Why couldnt' we have waited 2 weeks/2-3 starts from Happ to see if he could've done the job for us?

[MG]

At this point, the Phils have to once again hope that their own players (Gordon and Myers) once again provide the difference for the Phils. I don't think either is going to deli ever what the Phils expect the rest of the season.

[clout]

ricky: yep, guys who hit .291 with decent pop are usually 4th outfielders. Why, look at all the .291 hitters on major league benches. Heck, the phillies are loaded with .291 hitters on their bench.

[PhillR]

Bean is such a smart GM. How much worse will whoever he pulls out of the minors be then Blanton? Its sort of like with us, Happ isn't really a downgrade then Eaton at all. Now he gets three long shot prospects, and it probably won't even change their viability to compete in the west. Brilliant.

[clout]

ricky: Well, before you embarrass yourself again, I'd suggest you do a little research on the quality of the prospects the Cubs gave up in that trade.

[Inside/Outside the Parker]

Santana is almost at 50 pitches through 1 2/3 innings.

[PhillR]

Yeah Santana has thrown 30 pitches in the 2nd. He won't be going more then 5.

[jhart]

So is Happ 100% out of the rotation? I don't get this move.

[doubleh]

Man, the Reds are as bad as the Phillies with bases loaded.

[PhillR]

doubleh: Did you really expect their pitcher to his a bases clearing double?

[mc]

who cares about santana?? we're stuck with a fatter version of eaton. i'd rather wallow in misery than talk about another teams ace.

[doubleh]

Why not? Felix hit a GS off of Santana...

[Inside/Outside the Parker]

The Mets really struggle against pitchers that throw hard. Cueto already has 5 K's through 2 innings.

Too bad Gillick couldn't have gotten some guy named....cough, cough,......Burnett. Aside from the fact that he throws hard and is nasty, he has dominated the Mets in his career.

[Bedrosian's Beard]

I was hoping Murton was coming this way.

Will Happ be traded for a reliever? Does ANYBODY like that guy?

[Inside/Outside the Parker]

mc: The Phillies ace is better anyway, so I don't care.

[doubleh]

Parker: Yeah, you're right. They are relieved that we didn't get Burnett.

I bet Gillick would have loved to trade for him but the FO didn't want to deal with his headache of a contract.

[Brian G]

This makes me feel like such an idiot for opposing a Burnett trade.

[PhillR]

Parker: Johan ERA+ 144 Hamels ERA+ 140

They are pretty much even.

[Inside/Outside the Parker]

PhillR: I like Cole's upside much more. I'm not big fan of ERA+. The rest of the stats say Cole is better. Not by much, but I stand by that contention.

[Sophist]

Phils need to hold on to Happ. In the short run in case Myers bombs out again. And for next year as a possible Moyer replacement in case he decides to retire.

[Inside/Outside the Parker]

I'm not a big fan of Joe Blantons 145 hits in 127 innings. Ouch. Honestly, his stats compare rather favorably to Eaton and Kendrick. So, I ask, why did the Phils need this guy?

[Bedrosian's Beard]

"Take away his four worst starts this season and he has a 3.58 ERA," And if you take away his four best starts, he has a 5.81 ERA.

[Ribbies]

“We’ve been attempting to upgrade our rotation and we feel like we’ve done that,” Phillies assistant general manager Mike Arbuckle said in a statement. “We think Joe is a very strong, competitive pitcher that has the mental makeup to pitch productively in a pennant race. He pitches a lot of innings and takes some burden off the bullpen.”

[Sophist]

Parker - bc you are evaluating the guy on a half season of work. You didn't want people doing this to Burnett, why are you doing it to Blanton?

[MG]

Brian G - Agreed. I would have rather seen the Phils roll the dice with a guy like Burnett than Blanton. The Phils' ownership dipped bigtime into their pockets to take on another $1.5 M but there was no way they were going to take Burnett's salary. That is really what came into play here.

[mc]

i dunno...i'm saying equal..with probably slight nod to johan. i think you've seen what he's done this year to phi.
and all everyone says is how he is a 2nd half pitcher.. guess we'll see what happens.
all i'm saying is, well...
a) horrible deal. don't trade your top prospects for a # 3 starter at best
b) horrible deal. even if he's controlled until 2011. big whoop. he's huge, i have to watch this guy bunt and waddle to first base now??
c) he's an innings eater? oh the jokes are going to roll in on that one til the end of the year
d)i need a beer.

[bay_area_phan]

"That said, this deal could work out fine if Blanton reverts to his 2007 form."

I'm not sure about that. How good was he in 2007? He had a 5.11 ERA, a 1.43 WHIP, and a .304 BAA on the road. If ever there were a pitcher whose stats were an artifact of his home ballpark, Blanton is the guy. I'm not sure he'll even be as good as Eaton.

[MG]

“We’ve been attempting to upgrade our rotation and we feel like we’ve done that,” Phillies assistant general manager Mike Arbuckle said in a statement. “We think Joe is a very strong, competitive pitcher that has the mental makeup to pitch productively in a pennant race. He pitches a lot of innings and takes some burden off the bullpen.”

Phils BS translator:

- "This is a marginal improvement over what we currently have and more importantly it comes a price ($1.5 M) that our management just couldn't turn down. This will allow your ownership to sell the same line of crap to our fans while we profit handsomely as our attendance tops 3 million this season."

[mc]

beane always seems to come out on top with these trades.

[The Theory]

"I'm not sure he'll even be as good as Eaton."

I'm afraid of that also...

[Brian G]

Blanton's last 5 starts:
3 inn/ 8 runs
7 inn/ 1 run (against the horribly slumping Phils)
4 inn/ 7 runs
7 inn/ 1 run
6 inn/ 6 runs

Happ couldn't do that?

[MG]

Blanton will be better than Eaton. If that is the bar that is set though by the Phils, it is quite pathetic.

[mc]

dear lord delgado just hit a hr into the ohio river.

[Brian G]

Can't wait til we can't afford Burrell next year bc of the extra 6 million Blanton is going to cost us. Horribly misallocation of resources. Classic trade just for the sake of making a trade.

[Bedrosian's Beard]

Happ to the pen rumor is floating around...

[Casey]

Ugh, just heard the news. I was glad when we got rid of the first Jon Lieber. At least we'll have a new donut eater to pick on.

[bob]

well, the deal is done, so let's give blanton a fresh slate. pitching in CBP is almost the opposite of pitching in oakland, and the strengths of the defenses are a bit different. after a cursory look at blanton's splits, it looks like his weakness is pounding the strike zone. either when his control is off, or the umps are squeezing him, or hitters are laying off of his curveball, he gives up walks by the bunches and gives up a lot of runs. the thing is that he'll likely feel more comfortable pounding the strike zone in Philly because he should have more confidence in getting run support. The key will be making sure he can consistently pound the strike zone with his fastball-curve combo and do less KK-ish "nibbling". His "stuff" should be good enough to get people out most of the time. In terms of performance, i think he'll fit in nicely as the number 2 pitcher on this team for now.

i can't wait to see how he pitches for the phils. although i don't think the team is set, i think we're much better off for a run today than we were a day ago.

we'll see about myers. but i have a feeling he'll be saving the phils come september; i still remember watching the pedro-myers matchup a few years ago when abreu scored on a nibbler that heilman threw away at CBP. myers was matching a vintage pedro pitch for pitch. if myers can get anywhere near that form, the phillies will be in good shape.

[mc]

Question?
so if they picked up blanton.. does that take them out of the garcia sweepstake?
I know Garcia is not cy young.. but isn't he at best .. oh i don't know.. as good as blanton?
could have just signed him and held on to the prospects... oh that's right it would have cost more than 1.5 mil

[mc]

Question?
so if they picked up blanton.. does that take them out of the garcia sweepstake?
I know Garcia is not cy young.. but isn't he at best .. oh i don't know.. as good as blanton?
could have just signed him and held on to the prospects... oh that's right it would have cost more than 1.5 mil

[mb]

with Myers and now Blanton, do we now have the MLB's most obese starting rotation? Eaton is no slouch in that department either.

[doubleh]

Nice shutdown inning there by Santana...

[Sophist]

bob, I agree. Myers' performance for this team will be crucial.

[doubleh]

mb: Eaton's not fat. Got a pig nose, but I wouldn't say he's fat.

He does, however, serve up fat pitches.

[DPatrone]

Easy phans>this is not as bad a trade as most of you think. I'll explain.

CC = pipe dream. Great talent. Rental pitcher. A.J. Burnett? The Phils didn't want to deal with the opt-clause or 24 million. Bedard? On the DL right now. Can't make a trade for a guy on the DL. Byrd and Wolf have been here before and Wolf didn't want to come back. Blanton is under the Phils control for 2 more years. We get Myers back. Eatin goes to the 'pen. Say goodbye to Gordon and Seanez. A LH reliever is coming.

In Blanton they got SOME value and they gave up SOME value. To what extent no one knows as yet. Gillick, while not a big advocate of free agency is not totally stupid. Blanton was gotten to replace Eaton. Is he a big-time starter? No but he'll win more games the reat of the year with the Phils than Eaton would have if he remained in the rotation. So look at the trade for what it is, not what you want it to be. I don't think Gillick's done.

[mb]

Discussion forum for Joe Blanton's fans:

http://www.talk-sports.net/mlb/history.aspx/Joe_Blanton

some nice tidbits in there from "fans" of his

[johnnysanz3]

Well I guess we can all feel good in 3 years when Blanton is mediocre and Cardenas is an all star

[DanTheMan]

Oh good, another mediocre inning-eater with no upside that delays the development of our young pitchers into the starting rotation for a few more years. How soon do the rookies show up in Lehigh?

[donc]

I'm sorry. Am I dreaming or did I just hear that the Phillies acquired Joe Blimpton. Soemeone please tell me we didn't pick this guy up just because he threw a good game against us. At that point the Phillies would've been shut out in a tee-ball game. This is apocalyptic. And not just because of what we gave up. Mark my words this is the last move we'll see.

[johnnysanz3]

Gotta love when the ESPN headline calls the guy your team just traded for "a struggling righthander"

[mb]

forget comparing santana to hamels, he's looking more like eaton tonight

[DanTheMan]

This is a "wild-card" move by a team with World Series hopes

[Sophist]

Santana doing his best Eaton impression. Shocker that the pitching starts to weaken once the bats don't belong to SF and COL anymore.

[The Truth Injection]

Before I start let me say I like Cardenas potential in the majors.

Here's the thing though- the Phillies need help NOW. Cardenas is about what- 2 years away from coming up? How does that help them? They needed to get Eaton out of the rotation.

PLus Blanton is under control for 2 years so we're getting more than a rental.

Ricky: Clout is right. You should read up on players from other teams before categorically dismissing them as a bunch of garbage.

[CubeHostage]

at least Santana and the Mets are losing right now...

[Mike]

Reds are getting to Santana big time. When would Blanton be scheduled for his first start? I'll reserve judgment until after then.

[bay_area_phan]

"Can't wait til we can't afford Burrell next year bc of the extra 6 million Blanton is going to cost us."

It's funny you should say that, Brian, because I was just thinking about what Blanton would make in arbitration next year, and $6M was about what I came up with. Recall that Burnett would have made $12M in each of the next 2 years, and the Phillies wanted the Jays to absorb half his contract. Clearly, $6M is the number the Phillies had in mind, for how much they're willing to spend on Moyer's replacement next year. Let's prepare ourselves for a 2009 rotation of Hamels, Blanton, KK, Myers, and, yet again, Adam Eaton.

[bob]

although we should give blanton a clean slate here, i couldn't help to see what A's Nation is saying about the trade.

in summary:
90% approve of the trade because they got the 2nd best 2nd baseman in the minors, along with a power lefty pitching prospect and an ASU product in matt spencer. a lot felt that their team got better by simply getting rid of blanton and letting other pitchers like Gio take his spot. others felt bad/giddy because they robbed the phillies of their #1 and #3 prospects while giving up an overweight and bleh pitcher.

can we become a seller and turn around and do the same with eaton?

[Dull]

Happ in 4 innings tonight, no runs, no hits, 6 K's. But can he crack a ML rotation with Blanton and Eaton in it? Probably not.

[Mike]

It is posted on Phightin Phils Phorum and Phillies Nation.

http://myteamrivals.typepad.com/phightin_phils_phorum/

http://www.philliesnation.com/

[Mike]

bob: If Gillick puts on a Billy Beane mask and disguises his voice, we may have something there.

[mb]

in Blanton's 2 starts against the mets in the last 3 years, he is 1-0 with 15 IP and 0.00 ERA. just try to ignore the small sample size.

[PhillR]

Sophist: Do you really think that Santana's 2.97ERA going into tonight was a result of a weak schedule. Come off it. Thats like saying Hamel's success is due to luck or easy opposition. Wait, no. You are right, Santana sucks and will pitch at or below league average for for the rest of the season. Of course no one was saying such BS after Hamels gave up 6 runs in 4 innings against the Astros.

This is why I constantly sound like a negative jerk, because people keep making crazy statements. Santana's start tonight is no more indicative of a decline for him (or the Mets) then Hamels collapse against the Astros or Fish. If we luck out and the Reds get to Johan keeping the Mets out of first place, then lets be grateful and prepare for what is going to be a real fight.

[johnnysanz3]

Now when we ask if they will try to sign Sabathia or Sheets next year they will say well we already have 8 major league pitchers... hamels/myers/moyer/kk/blanton/eaton/happ/benson

[The Truth Injection]

Why does everyone assume Eaton will be in the rotation yet next year? AAs of now we still have Haap and Carrasco who both easily could make it over him.

While it hurts to give up Cardenas, we added to the rotation and kept Golson (who has potential), Carrasco (our best pitching prospect), and Marson (our catching future). We made the rotation better and kept our best pieces to help as early as next year.

That said, I still have reservations about the deal in some regards but you doom and gloom guys need to take a deep breath and look at the deal a little harder.

[johnnysanz3]

I am pretty confident Golson and his 8 to 1 kk/b ration will never amount to anything considered good.

[anon]

What if this was step one of a two parter? A lot of teams want major league ready players instead of remote prospects, no matter how good those prospects might be. We now have more of that available (although not one in particular is great). What about sending Eaton (change of scenery), Blanton, and say Happ to the Jays for Burnett. The Jays would get three pitchers under their control for several years, and the Eaton/Blanton money next year would offset the Burnett contract.

[EastFallowfield]

Each time someone brings up Santana's ERA I think of the grand slam he served up to the Seattle pitcher.

Because one of the baserunners reached on an error, and there were 2 outs, none of the 4 runs counted against his ERA.

But Met fans remember those runs, and watched his short effort tonight, that's why they're complaining about Santana-that he's not the ace they thought he was when they were gloating about him back in Feb.

[Sophist]

PhillR, wow. I didn't mean to incite you with my facetious statement or imply that Santana's ERA was due to luck. He's been the best pitcher in baseball for years now.

My statement isn't crazy. It's fairly easy to defend. The Mets pitching is starting to fall apart a bit now that they aren't facing the giants or rockies. The reds have a much better offense then those teams, and the Mets have in fact giving up plenty of runs in few innings tonight. It was said partly in jest and wishful thinking anyway. This is a Phils website after all.

I really don't have a problem with your analysis of their pitching anyway - besides your overuse of the word "dominant" to describe it. Dominant is Glavine-Smoltz-Maddux.

[TK]

I'm not ready to be outraged over this yet. But I will be very outraged if this winds up being their only move. Another bullpen arm and another bat are pretty glaring needs as well.

[mb]

why does everyone seem to think there will be another move after this? what have they done/said to indicate this?

THIS IS IT. this is the move!

[Sophist]

PhillR - saying Rollins is an above average SS and very difficult to replace is *not* a crazt statement.

Plenty of people have defended it. Unlike your repsonses to their ideas, you have yet to respond.

[Jon]

Vomit. Hurl. Repeat. Vomit. Hurl. Repeat.

This move pisses me off! Damn sencond rate franchise...