Friday: Toronto scouts set up shop in Reading

According to the Toronto Globe and Mail, officials from the Blue Jays are trying to weigh their options on a possible trade that would send right-hander A.J. Burnett to Philadelphia.

According to the report, the Jays "covet" outfielder Greg Golson, who has been out with a wrist injury, but took batting practice Tuesday and will participate in the All-Star Futures Game Sunday at Yankees Stadium. The Jays also like top prospect Carlos Carrasco and infielders Jason Donald and Brad Harman, according to the report.

Beerleaguer: There's meaty stuff here: “Phillies officials met Thursday morning, but there is still real concern about Burnett among their upper echelon after his near-meltdown Wednesday night against the Baltimore Orioles and because of his high ERA." the story says. "And then there's the unspoken but real concern: How would Burnett handle the scrutiny of the Philadelphia press and, most importantly, it's rabid fan-base? Still, the Phillies are a logical suitor. First, both organizations are familiar with each other's minor league systems since the proximity of spring training and minor league facilities makes it easy to schedule games in the spring. Second, the Phillies believe that their proximity to Burnett's off-season home in the suburbs of Baltimore makes it more likely that Burnett might not opt out of the final two years of his contract, in effect making him more than a rental player."

Burnett has two more years on his contract after this season, worth $12 million per year. On the year, he's 9-8 with a 5.23 ERA and was bombed several times this past month.

It's a salary dump situation for Toronto, there are red flags everywhere and the opt out clause makes it very difficult to guess how much the Phils would actually need to give up. It might not be that much. My hunch is the Phils are trying to pull off a deal without involving guys like Carrasco and catcher Lou Marson. And the timing of these injuries couldn't be worse. Carrasco is nursing a sore shoulder, but is expected to be okay. Golson is hurt, but expected to be okay. Plus, Reading lefty Antonio Bastardo, another potential chip, has a slight labrum tear.

Comments

[Jack]

Burnett is better than a 5.23 ERA. If you can do this deal for Golson and Donald, you do it. Sabathia and Harden would have been worth giving up Carraso or Marson for, or at least you'd have to consider it. I think if you can get Burnett without giving up those guys, you owe it to the team to do it. He may be struggling some this year, but he has gotten unlucky to some extent and has shown in the past that he is a legit #2 pitcher when healthy.

[The Theory]

I'd not mourn the loss of Golson. I don't know anything about Donald, so I suspect I wouldn't mourn him, either.

Don't suppose they'd take So off our hands?

[brio]

If he stays healthy he'll probably opt out of his deal. If he gets hurt he'll stay and cash in. I see this as a huge risk, especially if they deal Carrasco and/or Marson. They may be better off staicking w/ Happ and hoping Myers sees a shrink to straighten himself out.

[denny b.]

I would only do a deal for Burnett, for the exact right price. Donald would not be available.

I'd offer them Golson, Harman and a throw-in, low A pitcher. This isn't Sabathia, we are talking about. And, only do it, if Burnett puts in writing he won't opt out. Otherwise, pass. Stay with Myers, bring him back after the break, dump Eaton for Happ, and your rotation is set.

If you do get Burnett, then you can move Myers back to the bullpen, where he wants to be anyway. Dump Eaton, and your starting rotation would be:

1. Hamels
2. Burnett
3. Moyer
4. Kendrick
5. Happ

The pen would be:

1. Lidge
2. Myers
3. Gordon
4. Madson
5. Romero
6. Durbin
7. Swindle/Condrey/Seanez

That would be, by far, the best bullpen in baseball.

Gillick also needs to add another bat, off the bench, to replace Taguchi. That usually can be added pretty easily.

[pb]

I'd like to expand the deal for it to include Rios. I would make Werth the right handed bat and runner off the bench again. Then next season you don't need to resign Pat the Bat and would have an outfield of Vic in CF Rios in RF and the platoon of Werth/Jenkins would slide over to LF. I know Rios recently resigned and is having a down year but he's hitting Righties and struggling vs lefties. They maybe willing to trade him because they are going to have to pay Veron Wells very soon 10M next year, 21M in 2010, 23M in 2011, 21M in 2012, 21M and 2013. There best hitting prospect is Tavis Snyder who I believe is an OF but maybe more of a DH.

[JH2]

He is what his ERA says he is, at least this year. They should not do this. He is no better than what they already have.

[Jack]

pb: Yeah, maybe they'll throw in Roy Halladay for us too. And cover all of the salary.

Nice idea, but I don't think the Jays are throwing in a young talented player they just signed to a 6-year deal.

[TW22]

If you go strictly by ERA, Sabathia wasn't worth it either. The switch to the NL should help Burnett, but I agree we need to know that he won't opt out. And I'm guessing he won't give up that option.

[pb]

hey i can dream can't i? they're not exactly the best run team in baseball after all they did sign the Big Hurt to a monster deal only to cut him the next year and pay him to play for the A's

[UD Hens]

When you look at this potential deal, you need to think about it not only for the rest of the regular season but also for how the playoff rotation would set up. Assuming the Phils go with 3 starters in the playoffs, I think a rotation of Hamels, Brunett, and Myers/Moyer/Kendrick is better than Hamels, Moyer, Myers/Kendrick. I think you make the deal and hope that Burnett has a strong second half and get to the World Series.

[UD Hens]

When you look at this potential deal, you need to think about it not only for the rest of the regular season but also for how the playoff rotation would set up. Assuming the Phils go with 3 starters in the playoffs, I think a rotation of Hamels, Brunett, and Myers/Moyer/Kendrick is better than Hamels, Moyer, Myers/Kendrick. I think you make the deal and hope that Burnett has a strong second half and get to the World Series.

[UD Hens]

sorry for the 2x post

[from the district]

A.J. Burnett
ERA +

04 - 112
05 - 115
06 - 115
07 - 119
08 - 78

looks like the first half of this year is flukey, and that Burnett is due for a better second half. If you can get him without dealing Marson or Carrasco, I think its a no brainer. There are few other players in the Phillies system that project as impact players, so why not?

[GM-Carson]

I think Donald has a bright future, I'd like to keep him. As for Golson, it's time to sell high on him (by the way he was activated and played last night, homering in his return). If a package of Golson and Harman got it done, I'd do it pronto.

[Jack]

Carson: I'd imagine the Phillies brass is thrilled he hit a homer last night. My guess is they have the same thoughts, trying to sell as high as possible on him (at least I would hope).

The only complication is if they really think he's gonna replace Burrell next year in the outfield. If that's the case, we're in a whole lot of trouble.

[GM-Carson]

Here's something worth considering, if the Phils make the playoffs again and by some chance win the World Series, I'm think Pat Burrell parks his keister in the Brick Cit House's right field for a 2 year 25 million dollar extension because he LOVES this town.

[GM-Carson]

Last man to not be an All-Star that lead the league in homeruns and rbi at the break- Reds Hank Sauer in 1948.

[Inside/Outside the Parker]

I'm of the opinion that Burnett pitching well is better than Sabathia pitching well. When Burnett is on, the guy is damn near unhittable.

• He has had 12 games this year where he has allowed 3 or fewer ER.
• He has 8 games where he has allowed 2 runs or less.
• He has had 3 games where he has struck out 10 or more batters.
• Overall he has 118 K in 118 IP (that is a 9K/9 average).
• His BABIP is above .330 (and as pointed out by Sophist is .370 in his last few starts). (Career, that number is .304)
• His last start (the "bad" one) came a day after he had an emergency root canal performed. Maybe that is not a great excuse, but I don't imagine anyone would be on their best performance a day after that.

Bottom Line: Burnett is the last available #2 quality starter. To say he is a "Scrap heap" pitcher is to largely ignore this guys entire career, and base everything on one, 1/2 season of work.

[NEPhilliesPhan]

Burnett is much better than his 08 numbers say he is...I'd take him in a second. He also has playoff experience and is a good big game pitcher. Golson, Harmon and anothre prospect is a completely fair deal. Hell, we'd have the money to resign him anyway as Burrell's 15 million is almost certainly coming off the books this fall...as is Thomes deferred money.

[Marc H]

I would rather call up Carrasco and take a shot with two pitchers that the other teams haveb't seen before (Carrasco and Happ). I think they will be sorry if they trade Carrasco. The others (Golson, Harman & Donald) are generic and expendable.

[Inside/Outside the Parker]

Another thing:

What if Brett Myers does come back and pitch something similar to his potential, and Burnett pitches to his career norms?
1.) Hamels
2.) Burnett
3.) Myers (at something close to potential)
4.) Moyer
5.) Kendrick

That would be one hell of a rotation.

[Jack]

Parker: I don't think Burnett is as good as Sabathia, but as you say, Burnett is the best #2 starter out there right now. I personally think he's a better option than Bedard, who is banged up and hasn't gone past 6 innings in his last 6 starts.

[NEPhilliesPhan]

If we can get Burnett without giving up Carrasco or Marson, I'd say do it. Golson, Donald, Harmon, even Cardenas etc have no place to play right now anyway.

[Inside/Outside the Parker]

A lot of people cite Burnett's record as a reason to get down on him. I think that is misguided. He spent the majority of his career playing on some absolutely horrible Marlins teams. He was the only one of the (Beckett, Penny, Pavano, Burnett) staff left on that team. He suffered through the lean years of that organizations extreme salary dump.

It's not like he has had it a hell of a lot better in Toronto. Certainly they have been better than some of those Marlins teams, but have been wildly inconsistent. Plus they play in the AL East, so he gets to face the Yankee's and Red Sox on a regular basis. This year, you would have to throw in the Rays as well.

Overall, the guy has been in some pretty crappy situations throughout his career. He has never had the opportunity to pitch for a real contender. You can't base everything on his W/L totals without considering the context of those numbers.

[flipper]

From what I've read at BL, none of the Phillies prospects people have been talking about have promise anywhere above average players. Does anyone actually think that Carrasco or Marson or more than back end starter or platoon player?

The only way the Phillies advance in the playoffs is if they improve their starting pitching. It's worth gambling mediocre prospects for Burnett, cause there is a good chance he'll improve the rotation. Some times you need to roll the dice, no risk/no reward, you gotta break some eggs to make an omelet, a journey of a thousand miles starts with the first step (insert other cliche here).

Within reason in terms of total numbers,, I'd throw in Vic, Werth, anyone else short of Hamels, Lidge, Howard, Utley, Rollins.

Wake up, people. We need a better starting pitcher.

[Jack]

Flipper: The consensus on Carrasco is middle-of-the rotation starter, not a back-end guy. I'm not sure who is a valid comparision, but even if he is a league-average pitcher, a young, league-average pitcher who is cost-controlled for 6 years is a very valuable asset.

Marson is considered one of the top 5-10 catching prospects in the game. I'd be surprised if anyone thought he was a platoon player in the future.

I agree we need a good starting pitcher. I'd give up any other assets we have in the farm system, and I'd push for them to make the move. However, I think you are underrating the value of having these guys for a long time vs. having Burnett for 3 months, which gives you a slightly better chance at something, but doesn't gaurantee you anything in the playoffs.

[J. Weitzel]

I think it's too early to know just where Carrasco's ceiling is. He could be a top-of-the-rotation starter. I'd be hesitant to trade him for any of the remaining options on the market.

[from the district]

"Does anyone actually think that Carrasco or Marson or more than back end starter or platoon player?"

Yes. I believe the concensus is that Carrasco projects any where from a 2 to a 4 starter and that Marson has the potential to be a quality everyday catcher.

There are plenty of reasons why the Phillies shouldn't have to sell the farm to get Burnett. His unique contract situation is one of them, and his ERA is another.

[Jack]

Flipper, for the record, I would have been fine with them dealing one of Carrasco and Marson for either Sabathia or Harden, no question. For Burnett or Bedard? Not so much.

[NEPhilliesPhan]

As stated...Carrasco is around a #2/#3 guy who is a great compliment piece on a good team but not the Ace (Hamels fills that role).

Marson was called one of the top 4 catching prospects in baseball by Keith Law this week and he could turn out to be a Jason Kendall type guy who hits for average, displays above average defense and knocks maybe 5-10 HRs with a good double total. He's our top position prospect probably.

[flipper]

Fair enough, Jack:

If there isn't a solid assurance that he can be inked to a longer-term contract, it wouldn't be worth it.

The point is this - you have to weigh in the context. It is at least somewhat likely that Burnett could mean the difference between advancing in the playoffs or not advancing. It doesn't seem to me that a middle of the rotation pitcher or a catcher in the top 5-10 prospects at that position are either likely to make a difference to the ballclub on that scale. They both might contribute to a team in the future, but are unlikely to make that kind of a difference.

It isn't just a matter of evaluating the options divorced of context. The context here is that you have a team that's likely to get to the playoffs but not advance farther unless they get some pitching help.

[bay_area_phan]

It's not that I'm against trading for Burnett. But, it seems a little inconsistent to trade away valuable prospects for a guy with an ERA+ of 78, on the theory that our own guy with the ERA+ of 76 is unsalvageable. Burnett is a reclamation project. If you're trading for him, it's on the theory that he can turn his season around. But why wouldn't that same logic apply to our own guy? Wouldn't it make more sense to give Myers another shot before trading away something of value to get a pitcher having a horrible season?

[clout]

In a sea of idiotic posts this morning it's nice to get a bracing dose of intelligence from Jack:
"If you can do this deal for Golson and Donald, you do it."

That is exactly right.

[flipper]

One more thing. If you think that Burnett doesn't make that kind of a difference (i.e., the Phils wouldn't make the playoffs or still wouldn't have enough SP to advance in the playoffs), I'd agree that the trade wouldn't be worth it if you had to give up one of those guys.

It's just that facing another year of futility puts a one ton weight on one side of the scale, IMO. Yes, there's no assurance how Burnett will perform, but you have to take a shot.

Maybe it goes back to the WIP saw: "Would you trade a team with championship potential today for five more years of being "competitive?"

[flipper]

BAP - because Myers, at his best, wasn't as good as Burnett at his best.

[from the district]

bap - good point. It could be a grass is greener mentality, but at the same time Burnett has a much better track record of success, in that he has had more successful years than Myers has. I've never watched Burnett up close for an extended period of time, but from what I have seen he has better stuff too than Myers.

[clout]

BAP: Aren't two arms better than one?

[Hibachi]

If you want to psyche yourself into AJ Burnett and don't want to look at numbers, watching the Atlanta game on MLB.TV does a really good job of saying, hmmm, this guy would not be a bad addition at all.

[Tray]

I don't know. You can say that he's better than his ERA, but I don't see that his ERA's worse than his peripherals. He's fourth in baseball in walks allowed (although that's a slightly misleading stat because the other guys in the top ten have pitched way fewer innings, but still, he's got a 1.51 WHIP).

[Inside/Outside the Parker]

One thing that can't be said about Burnett is that he has been a drag on the Blue Jays. Despite Halladay and Burnett pitching well for the Jays in the last couple of years, their offense has underachieved. The Phillies don't have the same problems as the Blue Jays (Namely playing the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays on a consistent basis). Additionally, the Phils offense is much stronger as a whole than the Jays.

Burnett is definitely one guy who would actually be doing better to get out of his current situation. I imagine Burnett would be salivating at the idea of pitching against the Nats, the whiffmaster Fish, and the bumbling Braves (As in 7 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 11K, type drooling).

Also, career line against Mets: 98.2 IP, 74 H, 42 ER, 97 K, 3.83 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, .207 BAA

[Marc H]

If they can get Burnett without giving up Marson or Carrsaco, they should do it in a heart beat. Take a real run before Howard leaves after the 2011 season

[Tray]

Of course, he has been a much better pitcher over his career than he has this season, and may improve upon coming here, but he didn't get his awful ERA by way of bad luck.

[Jack]

Clout: Well, that's what you expect from me, right? Insightful analysis blended with razor-sharp accuracy?

[NEPhilliesPhan]

That's another thing Burnett is familiar with the NL East so it would be a smooth transition for him. He looks to be a classic change of scenery situation.

[Jack]

Tray: Well, that WHIP is bad, but it doesn't necessarily correlate with a 5.23 ERA. Kyle Kendrick, for example, has a 1.46 WHIP and an ERA a run lower. You can chalk it up to different skills, or to luck, but I'm not sure you can rule out that Burnett hasn't been unlucky. Also, his career WHIP is much better, so you'd hope to see some regression to the mean.

[flipper]

BAP - because Myers, at his best, wasn't as good as Burnett at his best.

[Tray]

I thought most of us were in agreement that Kendrick either is (a) lucky to have such a low EERA or (b) magically becomes career-year Derek Lowe when runners are on base, so I don't think that example helps.

[Brian]

I say I make the trade especially if they are in love with Golson, he doesn't have enough power to play a corner position and niether does Victorino. I believe in the old school philosophy defense and speed up (I.E catcher, 2nd base, short, & Center) the middle and power and runs on the corners (I.E 3rd, 1st, LF, RF)... Burnett is a tough pitcher and a change of scenery would do him real well. here is how I would look at the pitching

Rotation
1. Hamels
2. Burnett
3. Kendrick (give the kid credit he pitches really well)
4. Moyer
5. Happ

Bullpen
Long Relief - Eaton, Madson, Saenez,Durbin
7th - Romero/Durbin
8th - Myers/Romero
9th - Lidge/Myers (on days Lidge is not available)

[Inside/Outside the Parker]

Tray: I could make a strong argument that any pitchers ERA can be inflated by bad luck. BABIP is a good indicator of such things. Especially with a guy like Burnett who usually has a low .BAA, and has low slugging percentages against him. Compare Burnett's SLG against to other top pitchers. He is not that much different. What is different is that he has a high BABIP. It is more than .100 points higher than Hamels'.

Basically, the only distinguishable difference between Burnett, Sabathia, Hamels, J. Santana, Ervin Santana, Peavy, and the rest of the top pitchers is his BB, and BABIP. Those are things are capable of quick and drastic improvement.

[Tray]

Of course, you could see some regression to the mean, but pitchers do have seasons way below their career norms on occasion, and now that we've played half of the season, I wonder at what point what a guy's doing this year becomes more predictive of what he'll do the rest of the way than what he's done over his career. Obviously if it were August and his ERA is still that high, no one's going to say, "wait till September, he'll surely regress to his career norms then."

[clout]

Here's the scoop on Carrasco: He has #1 starter stuff. A 94 mph fastball with movement, a promising changeup and a hard curve.

Unfortunately, he also has #5 starter command. His potential will be totally determined by his ability to improve his command. At age 21 he has a very good chance of doing that, assuming the Phillies don't do anything stupid like rushing him to the big leagues.

Donald is a good hitter with a mediocre glove who lacks range at SS, but would make a nice platoon 2Bman, assuming he can get the footwork straight. Not sure the Jays would have interest, however, because they have Hill & Inglett, both of whom are better. Thirdbase might be a better option both for Donald and for the Jays.

Golson remains a superb athlete with great speed and fine glove and the offensive upside of Corey Patterson. If you love Corey's game, then Golson is your man.

[Willard Preacher]

I'd take Carrasco and Marson off the table and be willing to talk about Golson/Donald/Harman (what, no interest in Bohn?). Bottom line is Burnett is similar to Lidge - sound past, not yet past his prime and might just need a change of scenery (who wouldn't want to get out of Canada, unless they're paying him in Canadian dollars?).

I'd prefer to see some sort of reassurance against him walking after this year, unless the Phils need him to opt out in order to re-sign Burrell (let's hope not - this self-imposed budget is ludicrous).

Bottom line, Carrasco may be needed sooner rather than later, as you can't count on Moyer much longer, Myers is a wild card and Eaton probably shouldn't be in the rotation for any team with WS aspirations. Burnett/Carrasco may just end up being in the short term future of this staff.

[Jack]

Willard Preacher: I like Carrasco a lot, but to be honest, any team with WS aspirations probably shouldn't have him in their rotation either. Could he help out of the bullpen? Possibly. But I certainly hope he's not starting down the stretch; if so, we'll be hoping to catch lightning in a bottle.

[Brian G]

Burnett is an oft-injured Brett Myers with a very team unfriendly contract. No thank you.

[flipper]

Here we are, folks, at the fourth game of the 2008 first round face-off between the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Philadelphia Phillies.

The Phillies are behind two games to one, after a winning in a brilliant pitching performance by Cole Hamels in the first game, a close battle won by the D-backs against the amazing 45 year-old Jamie Moyer, and a competitive third game loss by the Phillies when Kyle Kendrick couldn't quite get through the seventh inning.

In tonight's matchup, pitching for the Phillies is Adam Eat......

NOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!

[Jack]

Brian G: So you don't think he's worth taking a chance on, in the hopes that his talent wins you a few games in the playoffs? You're fine with going into September with our rotation as-is?

[clout]

Tray: When you say "we" regarding KK, leave me out. I realize the prevailing view here is that he can't possibly be doing what he's doing because his WHIP says he can't, but I don't think WHIP is remotely as definitive as you think it is.

[Willard Preacher]

Jack, I was referring to the next couple of years. I in no way think that Carrasco will have any role in this year's WS aspirations.

[johnnysanz3]

It sounds from all the reports I read that Golson and Donald would be enough, but who knows. We will see. I would take that trade.

[Jack]

If Golson and Donald is enough, and they don't do the deal, then we have serious reasons to bitch about Gillick and company.

Most likely, their reluctance to trade Golson, if it exists, is because they want to plug him into Burrell's spot next year. If this happens, it shows a remarkable lack of committment to winning in both the short-term and the long-term. Most of us will be surprised if Golson could be even a league-average outfielder within the next couple years.

[Marc H]

If they get Burnett, I would like them to do so sooner rather than later. Threy Phillies have a murderous stretch after the All Star Break--3 vs, Fla. away, 3 vs. the Mets away and 3 vs. Atlanta @ home. If they flame out durting that strtetch, getting Burnett might not matter.

[sneed]

With all the stat nerds in the room I won't rehash any of the numbers (not that are any left), so I will just shoot it straight.

The trade is a no brainer if you can keep Carrasco and Marson out. Both of these guys project to quality major league players AND have the ability to make an impact over the next year plus. We have a Catcher hitting .209/.299/.275 who turns 30 this winter. Let's just be clear that these numbers are horrible, even more horrible when you consider that his obp is somewhat inflated due to the occasional walk that he gets in the 8 hole so that the opponent can pitch to our pitcher. We NEED Marson and he cannot, under any circumstances, be dealt at this point. I wouldn't have traded him for anyone short of Sabathia. I recognize that Ruiz is a good defensive player but he is so below average offensively it's unacceptable. IF Marson is a Kendall type he is the exact type of hitter this lineup needs.

As far as these projections of what the rotation would be like...Eaton needs to go and people need to stop acting like Myers is going to come back and be a great setup guy. The goal is going to be to get Myers back up and pitching like a starter. They signed Lidge last week and sent a message to Brett that he is going to be a starter. IF you get Burnett you can bring Myers back as the 5th starter down the stretch and dump Eaton on the trash heap where he belongs. Our pen is already getting worn down so we need to try and add a bullpen arm on our own. Maybe Farnsworth if the Yanks do go through and dump some guys.

Also, Pat is signing back here. It's blasphemous to suggest he would leave town. He's taking 2 yrs 25 million and that's that. Pat already knows how much he has stolen from us. Plus this guy is set for life, so when he realizes the tabloids in New York will catch him philandering he will stay in Philly where we encourage it.

[bay_area_phan]

Actually, the difference between Myers & Burnett at their best is slim and none. Myers had ERA+ of 118 and 120 during his 2005-2006 seasons. Burnett's highest ever ERA+ was 122. Usually, he's in the 112-115 range.

If the Phillies can do this deal for Golson and, say, Slayden (or some lesser prospect), I agree that there's no reason not to do it. If it includes Donald, I'd probably have some reservations. I just don't see Burnett having any higher probability of success than Myers and, with the way Happ has been pitching so far, I don't see a critical need for 2 reclamation project starters.

[sneed]

Uh...you do this trade in a heartbeat...if you don't have to give away Carrasco or Marson.

[from the district]

Jack - agreed

[Jack]

Solid comments Sneed.

[CY]

If we get Farnsworth I am going to the ledge.

He makes me crazy with that flat fastball. It would be HR derby in CBP

[Brian G]

Jack: I'm not fine with it but I also think it's our best choice. I'd rather just hope Brett Myers gets it together and take our shot that way than end up paying Burnett a million dollars for every 10 innings he pitches at a 4.0 era for the next two years.
I'd rather put that 12 mil/year towards Burrell the next two years and extending our window, hoping guys like Happ and Carrasco can step in. I think Sabathia was a get over the hump guy, and was for giving up Carrasco and others to get him. I don't think Burnett is anywhere near that type of difference maker.

[bay_area_phan]

I wouldn't be so quick to just include Jason Donald as a throw-in. This is a guy with a .390 OBP for the second year in a row and, on top of that, he's actually showing some power this year that he never previously displayed -- namely, 11 homeruns in 73 games. A guy like this would help just about any major league lineup, including the Phillies'. We don't need to sort out his future position today, although there are various possibilities.

[Tray]

Clout, I thought your opinion was represented in my post by the whole turning into Derek Lowe when runners are on part. That is your position, right? That he does allow a lot of baserunners, but becomes a much better pitcher once they get on, and that that isn't luck?

[clout]

I like Marson too, but everyone forgets about the defense part of the equation. Catcher is one of the most crucial defensive positions on the field, arguably the most crucial after shortstop. Heading into this season there were questions about Marson's footwork and technique behind the plate. So far he's on pace for a 15-error, 10-passed ball season. I haven't seen much on his pitch calling skills. But I'd say he probably needs another year in the minors.

[CJ]

Is there anyone on this list who wouldn't deal Golson and Donald for Burnett?

[CJ]

clout: I would agree on Marson. That said, you're not advocating trading him simply because he might need another half season or full season in the minors, are you?

[Brian G]

CJ: Me. Not on talent, but bc of Burnett's contract.

[clout]

Tray: It is a fact that some pitchers bear down better with men on base and KK certainly fits that description, but there is another factor here. KK has extreme splits. Lots of lefties get on base against him and few righies do. Very few mlb teams have more than 2 or 3 dangerous lefties in their lineup. The result: Those 2 or 3 guys get on base a lot, fattening his WHIP, but he strands runners because there aren't enough lefties in the lineup to put him away.

P.S. There are pitchers in the Hall of Fame with a WHIP above 1.30. Isn't that amazing?

[CJ]

Brian G: I'm wondering what your reservation there is.

Is that he costs too much to be a three month rental when he opts out?

Or are you worried that he won't opt out and don't want to pay next year's salary?

[clout]

CJ: Absolutely not. Marson is a keeper.

[johnnysanz3]

/begin fantasy

Re-sign Burrell, and throw a ton of money at Sabathia AND Sheets at the end of the year.

Payroll would be around 150 mil. But how could you argue with Hamels, Sheets, Sabathia, Kendrick/Moyer/Happ/Carrasco/Myers/Eaton

Haha, the thing is that it is entirely possible too with no salary cap and they definately have enough money too. Ok

/end fantasy.

[CJ]

clout beat me to it.

This season, KK is allowing an OPS of .682 vs. righties and .881 vs. lefties.

The good news is that the OPS vs. lefties is 40 points lower than it was last year, although the OPS vs. righties is 50 points higher.

He's been working on a changeup that should make him more effective against lefties. His sinker is already very effective against righties.

[Alby]

Someone said we've hashed over all the numbers on Burnett, but we haven't. Everybody keeps looking over at the right-hand side of the baseball card, where they list ERA+ etc. Nobody seems to have noticed the left-hand columns, where they list Games Started. Since coming back from his missed season, Burnett has started 19, 32, 21 and 25 games from 2004-2007 (32 is the normal complement). Only twice in seven years of full-time duty (not counting 2002, missed almost entirely to injury) has he reached 200 IP, and he's never gotten close in the other five.

In other words, while you might view another pitcher with his 2008 numbers as having a good chance of bouncing back from a lousy first half, Burnett's injury history is more checkered than Rich Harden's. What makes everyone so sure Burnett isn't on the verge of breaking down yet again? Then you're on the hook for two more years at $12 million per.

He might have the highest upside of the pitchers left on the market, but carries far more risk, as well -- not so much in whom we'd have to give up to acquire him, but in future salary tied up in a guy who might give you no more than Freddy Gardia.

[Jimmie J.]

One thing not mentioned yet...didn't Rich Dubee coach Burnett for a year or two when he pitched for the Marlins? I wonder if that would be a good thing in all this...?

[Alby]

Joe Borowski was released today by Cleveland. Still interested, Clout?

[Brian G]

Jack: Alby's response is where I'm coming from. I think a guy with Harden's ability is someone you'd consider that gamble on (although I'm fine with the Phillies reticence in pursuing him as his injury risk is way higher than Burnett's), but Burnett's just not good enough to risk that he'll hamstring us for the next couple years.
Although, I'll add, I'm not gonna shed any tears if we do acquire him.

[CJ]

Alby: "Burnett's injury history is more checkered than Rich Harden's."

You should know better than to make a statement like that on this list.

Starts since the beginning of 2005:
Burnett: 97
Harden: 45

Cole Hamels has never started 30 games in a season... are we suggesting we wouldn't trade for him because he's an injury risk?

[Jack]

Good piece in the Inquirer today on Carrasco:

http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/20080711_For_Carrasco__progress_is_slow_but_steady.html

[NEPhilliesPhan]

Someone commented on Donald being a good 2B platoon type player...How many 2B platoons have you ever heard of?

I like Donald's bat but if he ends up having to play somewhere other than 2B like 3B or LF his value starts to drop. If he can play 3B well he could theoretically replace Feliz in 2010 but I'm not worried about 2010 right now and he's also blocked at 2B right now by the best 2B in the game. Him and Golson for Burnett should be a no brainer if they're serious about contending this season.

[WillyFromPhilly]

Burnett's log:

5.1 112-61 7/9
7.0 101-72 7/4
7.0 119-74 6/29
8.0 111-69 6/24
5.0 101-64 6/19
5.0 111-63 6/13
4.1 100-61 6/7
8.0 102-62 6/1
5.2 108-64 5/27
6.0 98-66 5/22
6.1 106-58 5/17
7.2 117-68 5/12
6.0 97-62 5/6
7.2 112-68 5/1
7.1 102-64 4/25
5.0 113-61 4/20
1.0 24-16 4/16 (extra innings)
5.2 114-65 4/13
4.2 92-58 4/8
6.0 93-55 4/2

[sneed]

Good piece on Carrasco. He's going to get it together and be a good major league pitcher for us. I'd bet sooner rather than later.

[WillyFromPhilly]

The 12th post down by sneed says it all. He nails it!

[Kirk]

I think the Blue Jays "loving" Golson is a smoke screen. I think they want Carrasco. And, even if he projects as a 2 to 4 starter, the Phillies have a number of those guys in their minor league system right now: Happ, Drabek, Savery. That's why you collect good arms - to swap them to fill a need. And, while Donald has promise as a major leaguer, his future with the Phillies is blocked by Rollins and Utley. Move him with Carrasco for Burnett. Today!

[Pat Gillick]

Great insight on the trade. I'll pull the trigger this afternoon. Thank God for Beerleaguer or I'd be screwed.

[PhillR]

I think this is the kind of deal that Phillies management will just sort of luck into. Its a win-win situation. Everyone should be thrilled if it happens.

[Willard Preacher]

Kirk, I assume you don't subscribe to the "Utley to first when Ryan Howard leaves town" camp then?

Not saying that I do, either, however when you have a talented IF, you make do how you can in order to field the best team. I'd love to see Donald get some time at 3B if the Phils intend to hang on to him.

[Willard Preacher]

Not much talk about the AL pitcher coming to the NL and the potential improvement in numbers resulting. Then again, you're talking about a pitcher susceptible to HR's coming to pitch in CBP.

For the Myers/Burnett comparison, numbers are similar - Myers has pitched a bit in a very hitter friendly park, Burnett has pitched against AL lineups. I say flip a coin.

[Ruben Amaro Jr.]

You're tellin' me, Pat! I don't know what we'd do without Beerleaguer. I could be exposed as a fraud.

[baxter]

The Phils could get Bedard, Burnett and the bat Manuel wants, using the Ed Stefanski contact+young talent trade model...Here's how:

Greg Golson, Tyson Brummett and Brad Harman for AJ Burnett

Cardenas, Happ, Jaramillo, Dominic Brown, Brett Myers and Pedro Feliz for Bedard and Adrian Beltre.

Adam Eaton and Geoff Jenkins to the Yankees for "Melky" Cabrera. I don't even like Cabrera, but only the Yankees would make this sort of deal.

Rotation:
Hamels
Burnett
Bedard
Moyer
Kendrick

Lineup:
Victorino CF
Werth/Cabrera RF
Utley 2b
Howard 1b
Burrell LF
Beltre 3B
Rollins SS
Coste/Ruiz C

Those moves would make the Phils legit World Series contenders; probably favorites to win it all. Bedard is signed through 09 and Burnett can stay if he chooses.

Eaton+Jenkins=16 mil
Myers= 10 mil(avg in 08 and 09)
Feliz=5 mil
Thats about 31 million dollars saved.

Bedard+Beltre= about 20mil
Burnett= 12 mil

The Phils payroll would be about the same, and they wouldn't give up Marson or Carrasco.

[Willard Preacher]

And yes, I realize that part of Burnett's career was spent in FLA, with an NL team.

[CJ]

baxter: Thanks for the injection of humor into the discussion.

Discussing these kinds of crazy trades is fun, but I guess we'll never really know until it's all said and done.

For instance, it wasn't until after CC was traded that we learned the Phils offered more players than the Brewers, but were unwilling to part with Carrasco and Marson.

If the Phils were unwilling to part with their top pitching and top position prospects for CC "Cy Young" Sabathia, there is no way either are going anywhere for A.J. "I still use periods" Burnett.

[RSB]

A.J. Burnett. I swear to god, you people are positively myopic. That's just a sexy name you recognize. He's been around, he throws in the upper 90s. Oh, when he's on, he's untouchable. And how often does that happen? Oh, he's better than his ERA. And so is Brett Myers. Oh, would I rather have Adam Eaton in the rotation? No, I wouldn't, but it's not like Burnett comes cheaply. He not only costs you players who have a chance to be solid, everyday performers for low salary, but *his* salary prevents you from maneuvering more effectively in the future. Don't you suppose there's a good reason why the Blue Jays are so eager to unload him? They were duped by the blazing fastball and the 'potential' and the glitzy name from all the Baseball America drool-lists early in the decade. And now here is Beerleaguer, eager to see their team be the next one to buy into the illusion. A.J. Burnett is better than Adam Eaton. Whoop-de-do. He's a glorified .500 pitcher, one who (again) DOES NOT have post-season experience and has no business being claimed as a 'big-game pitcher'. Do you folks honestly believe that he would make that big of a difference in either the regular season or a potential post-season? I think he's a huge waste of time, money, and prospects. And do you really think Toronto would make a deal without getting any kind of pitching in return? Dream on. I don't think he's worth more than one marginal prospect.

[Brian G]

Baxter: You're an idiot. We're all dumber for having read your post.