Game chat: Phillies try to solve Mets' Maine

Right-hander John Maine (8-6, 3.86) is 4-0 with a 2.05 ERA in seven starts against the Phillies, and is 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA in two starts Citizens Bank Park. The Phils hope for better luck and try to make it five in a row when Jamie Moyer (7-6, 4.13) takes the mound tonight. First pitch is 7:05. The Phils hold a 3.5 game edge over Florida in the National League East and are 5.5 up on the Mets.

Comments

[CEM]

GO GO GO !!!

[Scott warheit]

anyone else feel like its a matter of time until we get an Burnett?

[Mike]

I'd love to have Burnett, as long as it's not at the cost of Victorino. Last night was another example of how he can be such a spark plug. I'm going to miss tonight's game again due to a belated 4th of July BBQ, but I'll be DVR'ing it and getting updates. Go Phils. Beat the Mets.

[Sophist]

flipper - Since I don't feel like aggregating all the stats for Win Share from #5 hitters let's look at the Win Shares of some players who hit from that spot a fair number of times in the past few years (I'm looking at players with a minimum of 300 PA in that spot.) I'll list them in order of decreasing OPS (ignore the second # for now.)

2007

Atkins - 20 - .03
Dunn - 21 - 2.36
Rowand - 23 - 2.09
Willingham - 21 - .69
McCann - 15 - -.06
L. Gonzalez - 13 - -.23
Kearns - 21 - .75
Greene - 19 -

2006

Durham - 21 - 3.29
McCann - 24 - 2.54
A. Gonzalez - 17 - 1.59
Wright - 32 - 4.73
Fielder - 17 - .52
Kearns - 8 - -.02

Burrell is already at 300 PA this year. He has 13 WS. He's on pace to be well above average this year.

Win probability added is a good stat in this regard as well. It actually weights crucial hits more than others, obviously, and even gives players less weight for these meaningless A-Rod home runs (you know, homers in the ninth with your team down 6.)

fangraphs.com keeps track of WPA. Burrell, at 4.43, is second in all of baseball in WPA behind Lance Berkmann, so I'd imagine he's well above average for a 5 hitter as well. I marked the other 5-hitters WPA in those season's next to their WS numbers. WPA is cumulative, although it decreases of course, since a player adds negative probability when acting in a way that decreases the team's likelihood of winning.

Burrell would have to start contributing negative wins in a big way to even be barely above-average in terms of WPA. But Burrell hasn't had a season where his WPA was negative since 2003. For contrast you could look at, say, Feliz' record, who's only positive WPA for a season was in 2003 (he's been playing since 2000.)

Burrell's wasn't a 5-hitter at his 2008 rate from 2005-2007. Including this year (when he's hit 5th basically all year), he's hit 5th around 48% of his career AB, so his percentage for 2005-2007 is considerably smaller. The last time he hit 5th at his current rate was 2003.

There are many other metrics (WPA/LI, Clutch) that try to capture these things if you're interested.

[Andy]

Mets have been frsutrated lately by their pattern of winning a game then losing a game and so on. Last night was their night to lose and they did. I think, since it is so vexing, the Phils should be kind and help them break their pattern. Tonight. By a wide margin if possible.

And really, all I really want from this weekend is to hear those wonderfully soothing words:
"Now pitching for the Mets....Aaron Heilman."

[Andy]

Sophist - Is that your business (RED)? Looks like you do good work.

[Whelkman]

flipper, continued from previous thread:

I can't say how many win shares the average player receives, especially since the number likely fluctuates. Fortunately, there's Win Shares Above Average (WSAA) and Win Shares Above Bench (WSAB) which are like VORP for Win Shares. WSAB seems dominant right now because it tracks playing time and implicitly includes "lose shares" if you take bench players as everyday liabilities. In WSAB, Burrell is 8 while Feliz is 0, so Feliz is right in the major league "gut" of average offense.

It does all sound like mumbo jumbo, but these statistics garner respect because when you run every player through them, they come out in the order expected despite perceived algorithmic flaws. Top achievers in WSAB include usual offenders like Babe Ruth, Ty Cobb, and Willie Mays.

[Whelkman]

flipper, continued from previous thread:

I can't say how many win shares the average player receives, especially since the number likely fluctuates. Fortunately, there's Win Shares Above Average (WSAA) and Win Shares Above Bench (WSAB) which are like VORP for Win Shares. WSAB seems dominant right now because it tracks playing time and implicitly includes "lose shares" if you take bench players as everyday liabilities. In WSAB, Burrell is 8 while Feliz is 0, so Feliz is right in the major league "gut" of average offense.

It does all sound like mumbo jumbo, but these statistics garner respect because when you run every player through them, they come out in the order expected despite perceived algorithmic flaws. Top achievers in WSAB include usual offenders like Babe Ruth, Ty Cobb, and Willie Mays.

[Sophist]

Andy - sadly no. I'm a lowly law/business student. I've been using a friend's computer, which has a memory of its own.

[Billy Mac]

Lineups

Phils
1. J Rollins, SS
2. S Victorino, CF
3. C Utley, 2B
4. R Howard, 1B
5. P Burrell, LF
6. P Feliz, 3B
7. G Jenkins, RF
8. C Coste, C
9. J Moyer, P

Mets
1. J Reyes, SS
2. R Church, RF
3. D Wright, 3B
4. C Beltran, CF
5. D Easley, 2B
6. C Delgado, 1B
7. R Castro, C
8. C Aguila, LF
9. J Maine, P

[king myno]

The terrifying Damion Easley in the five-hole and the corpse of Carlos Delgado right behind him. Maybe they'll bring Eric Valent back, too.

[Mike]

I guess Fernando Tatis was out late last night and can't go today. Hopefully they get to Maine early and often.

[CJ]

Wow, Easley has an OPS+ of 86 this year and 92 for his 17 year career. He's had more than 65 RBI once in his career (100 in 1998). But I guess being 9 for his last 19 gets him the 5th spot in a major league lineup. Ouch.

[clout]

CJ: Check Easley's career numbers vs. LHP.

[clout]

This might've been a game to start Werth vs. a RHP over Jenkins. Maine gives it up to righties, is much better vs. lefties.

[Fish]

ESPN is listing our only injury as Freddy Garcia, Day to Day.

Wow.

Way to be on target, world-wide leader in sports.

[clout]

Easley's OPS vs. LHP past 4 years (including this one):

.863
1.041
.763
1.115

[Mike]

Maine has been better against lefties this year, but not overall for his career. I still would like to have seen Werth in there tonight though.

RH vs. Maine in 2008: .255/.307/.398
LH vs. Maine in 2008: .233/.335/.335

RH vs. Maine Career: .236/.288/.394
LH vs. Maine Career: .236/.339/.398

[Andy]

The Yanks won today, but barely. They've been suffering from "the heartbreak of offensive inconsistency." Cholly should give them a few pointers. Or they should go play a set in Atlanta.

[Andy]

hey batta batta hey batta batta

sooowing battah!

(They never swing when I do that. Wonder why?)

[Andy]

See! He shoulda swung at the first pitch.

[Andy]

Yikes! Looks like Moyer fropped the "o" from his name and added an "s" to the end.

[PhillR]

With Church batting in the 2 spot and Moyer on the mound, my money would be on the Mets tonight. They are fare more potent with tonight's lineup that last night's.

[rocky]

I am new to this site.is there newyork fans on this site.

[rocky]

who cares if the mets are better with church.batting second,or if the yankees won.

[Andy]

Gosh, rock, lighten up; become more ecumenical. Phils fans are allowed to follow the sport in all its aspects.

[Iceman]

Is there a bigger baby in the MLB than Jose Reyes? I've never seen a game where he didn't whine about something.

[PhillR]

Rock, I didn't say I was rooting for them. I just think this Mets lineup against Moyer with Maine (who dominates the Phills) on the mound, I wouldn't go wagering on the Phillies tonight.

[Iceman]

There's Ryan "Clout says I'm better defensively than Thome" Howard, costing us another run with his inability to throw.

[Andy]

And there's Ryan "I can hit the ball a country mile" Howard tying the game up.

[Iceman]

And he atones..

[Iceman]

Jamie certainly getting the corners called tonight..

[wally]

That was even remotely a strike.

[wally]

correction: that WASN'T even remotely a strike.

[PhillR]

The Philly fanatic is in really poor taste. They don't do anything like that with the Mr. Met at Shea. Its kind of embarrassing.

[Iceman]

PhillR: cry me a river.

[PhillR]

Sorry, its unsportsmanlike and embarrassing. I don't want to be represented by the fanatic like that. Just furthers the image of Philadelphia as a slum home to a bunch of uneducated lower class schmucks.

[Iceman]

At 8:31 PM, PhillR said:

"Waaaaaah."

[Andy]

If all they're gonna do is pop up, they should wait until they have two strikes on them; that way the pitch count would go up and it would become "Heilman" time that much sooner.

[PhillR]

Iceman- Yes you demonstrate my point quite well.

[Andy]

PhillR:
There is a synonym for "Mr. Met" which begins with "p" and has an alternative definition as a type of feline.

[Andy]

There's workin the pitch count for ya. Go Uts.

[PhillR]

Andy, that doesn't mean that Fanatic has to act like a moron. Crushing an apple last night and beating up a bloody naked Mets fan today is pretty tasteless. I know, lets have him throw burning paper airplanes at NYC landmarks. I bet Iceman would find that hilarious.

[PhillR]

Its Heilman time.

[Andy]

PhillR:
There are some {probably not bloody but possibly naked} Metsbloggers that I wouldn't mind seeing the Phanatic go to town on. But yeah, the paper airplane thing sucks - when did he do that?

[Iceman]

This is really bizarre. I hope it's nothing serious with Maine.

[Andy]

Oh, PhillR, I'm sorry.

You've reminded me of my favorite time of all. There should be a song to go with Heilman time.

[Ribbies]

What happened with the injury delay?

[Iceman]

PhillR: do you really have nothing better to do than to go to some other team's website and bitch about their mascot? What a sad life you must lead. It's a friggin' guy in a green suit.

[Andy]

Iceman, ditto. It was only 102 pitches.

[Iceman]

Ribbies...Maine just started grabbing his left elbow out of nowhere. Not his throwing arm, though. Really bizarre, he couldn't manage to throw a pitch.

[PhillR]

Iceman, who the hell said I was not a Phillies fan?

[Andy]

I'm about to be depressed. I bet they remove Heilman for a PH this inning and that one pitch is all we get. If that happens I will be as upset as PhillR gets when those naughty mascots break every societal convention.

[Andy]

(And PhillR - I'm just yankin yer chain there. )

(That being said, the Phanatic has always been pretty cutting edge. Tommy Lasorda used to genuinely abhor him.)

[Iceman]

PhillR - wild guess.

[Andy]

Leave him in! Let him bunt! Please???

[Andy]

You stink, Manuel (not Cholly).

[Iceman]

Oh boy.

[PhillR]

Iceman- wildly incorrect as usual.

[wally]

I think any actions performed by the Philly Fanatic are redeemed by it's hilarious body shape.

[Iceman]

Double oh boy. You could tell Jamie was having trouble with the grip for the past few batters.

[Iceman]

PhillR - so you're a Phils fan who rips the city? I guess you really do meet a new type of person every day.

[Jack]

I guess Durbin is off-limits tonight? Maybe Madson can pull one off here.

[Wendy the Retard]

why does Howard stink at throwing the balls?

[Iceman]

Let me run some stats here on Madson with inherited runners..

Ryan Madson, inherited runners, 2008: NOT GOOD.

[wally]

Madsen would be a good fit on the Cardinals. He has that same Vanilla Ice shaped face that every player on the Cards except Pujols has.

[Iceman]

Wow, 12 of 18? Not as bad as I thought.

[Iceman]

GREAT pitch by Madson. Nice job getting out of that.

All of these friggin' games with the Mets seem to be tied going into the last two innings.

[Whelkman]

I hate the Burrell substitution. There are nine more outs.

[Iceman]

Unbelievable. Tie game, 7th inning, Burrell almost hits a HR and he gets pulled. I'm sick of that crap.

[Iceman]

Wow, putting Jenkins on here? Interesting..

[Whelkman]

And it's not like Bruntlett is Kenny Lofton or something.

[Jack]

Let's go Coste

[Whelkman]

Chris Coste was almost the man.

[Iceman]

That was an all-time Kalas botched HR call.

[mike cunningham]

@iceman... I'd agree, except for 40K phans were on the same page as Harry the K.

[vegas]

Mr. Pinch Hit will come through!

[Andy]

In a time game, the leveraging of PHs is pretty dumb. Cholly wasted Dobbs for proabably nothin.

[RSB]

PhillR: I sympathize. The Phanatic is the one cheap-gimmick brainchild of Bill Giles which everyone inexplicably continues to adore no matter how predictable and tiresome it is. Even the broadcasters laugh. They rip everything and everything related to Philadelphia but universally praise the Phanatic as the best mascot in the history of professional sports. I guess it's one of those things where you're just compelled to laugh because there's an expectation of humor, regardless of whether it's actually funny.

[vegas]

Dobbs?

[RSB]

Coste just missed twice tonight.

[Iceman]

I should know not to question the gut. The substitution scored us a run there.

[Whelkman]

Way to go Werth!

Werth you idiot!

[Andy]

That stuff I said about taking out Dobbs for Werth? You can ignore that.

[birds]

Burrell doesn't score there.

Anyone willing to apologize for doubting Charlie?

[RSB]

The inevitable question for Iceman & Whelkman: so you think Burrell scores that run?

[Iceman]

Mike...so was I. I stood up. I just enjoy the "LONG DRIVE!!!"'s that end up falling flat at the end.

[PhillR]

Iceman- I was lamenting the reputation that Philly has and which is perpetuated by the base nature of the Phanatic and those who find him funny. I would have it otherwise.

[birds]

burrell doesn't score there.

anyone else want to rethink their expert baseball opinion on the pinch runner mover?

[TK]

Romero is the worst pitcher with a sub 2 ERA in history.

[Iceman]

RSB - I already recanted. The Gut surely had one-up on all of us that time.

And it's Wild Thing Jr. time...

[Whelkman]

RSB: seems to me like the announcers laugh at the Phanatic's antics like an audience member who's the target of a bad stand up act.

[birds]

sorry for double post

RSB, I am pretty sure that Burrell answered that on the single off of the wall.

[vegas]

Werth safe at second.

[mike cunningham]

@RSB -- The Phanatic is an extremely popular mascot... there is just a handful of people like you who don't like him.

At the end of the day the mascot is directed towards the children. And he's universally beloved.

[Whelkman]

RSB: maybe not this time, but, over a season, I'll trade 100 Burrell substitutions for another AB in the 8th/9th. I mean, how else is he gonna crush Wagner?

[Iceman]

Romero's magic act might finally be at an end.

It's Flush time.

[Andy]

Is there a reason J.C. is throwing nothing but fastballs? They're just sitting on it.

[vegas]

Going with the Gut. I would too.

[birds]

Whelkman: I am pretty sure the idea is to not see Wagner in the 9th.