Game chat: Phillies aim for another win in Atlanta

The Phillies try to give Adam Eaton (2-6, 4.86) better run support than he’s been getting tonight when they face Jorge Campillo (3-2, 2.54) and the Braves. First pitch is 7:10.

Eaton has been better than his two wins suggest because his teammates haven't done him any favors. The Phillies have scored just three runs over Eaton’s last three starts and are averaging just 3.4 runs/game in his 16 starts overall. He’s settled in lately, thanks to better command. He’s allowed only 13 walks over his last eight outings, and it shows. Six of his last seven starts have qualified as quality starts. At Turner Field, Eaton is 2-1 with a 4.06 ERA in five starts, although he has struggled with Atlanta overall (3-3, 5.94).

As of this writing, the Phillies have not announced their plans for the starting rotation beyond tonight.

Comments

[Sophist]

"Yet Sophist tells me that they have gone away. I don't see it."

You want to crown the Marlins, crown them.

I stay by my assertion that they have begun to disappear and will finish the season in third place at best.

They've been outscored by 30 runs this season, and are outplaying their peripherals by 3.5 (D1), 3.4 (D2), and 4.9 (third-order.)

But we don't have to get fancy. We're talking about a team that's only 4 games above .500. They're 14-20 since May 27th. They're 14th in the NL in team ERA. 27th in MLB.

I'm not even sure they win 80 games this year. They'll only be in the Phils' radar in September if the Phils are playing AL teams in the entire second-half.

[doubleh]

I'm not crowning them; if you read the rest of my email, I said that they basically stink, so why do they keep finding ways to win? Have they just been playing inferior teams, or is it just because the NL East is so weak? (Or because the Phils are slumping/playing tough teams and can't run away with the division)

[NEPhilliesPhan]

If they Phillies had played even somewhat respectable baseball in June, they'd have run away with the NL East and be like 8 or 9 games up right now. The only reason the Mets, Fish and Braves are even in contention is the fact the Phillies have basically taken the last month off.

[Mr. Mack]

I've been away for a few days, only to return and see a lot of much needed roster moves. Here are my feelings on it all:

Myers - Like J. Weitzel, I never thought sending Myers back to the starting rotation was an experiment that would work. It was obvious that he relished the closer's role and that he fit perfectly in the BP with his approach to the game. As big a head-case as he is, outwardly he never bitched or complained about his pitching role on the team. He did what was best for the team, and he deserves some credit for putting th eteam first. That being said, we knew where is heart was all along...the BP.

RJ Swindle - I think a guy like this can be very valuable to any club. Nerves will factor in here early on to be sure, but I hope the Phillies don't make the mistake of making this a one or two appearance trip to the Show for RJ. Having faced a little adversity in his baseball career makes guys like this work a little harder, and like Coste, cherish their role on the club no matter what that may be. I'm hoping we add his success story to the already made-for-Hollywood(Disney?)-feel-good success of Chris Coste. I for one think he should stay here for a while.

Gulp, Phillies FO - My first instinct is to think that this may be one of those dumb luck situations for the FO. I am convinced that any good decision they make is strictly by dumb luck. I admit that my total disgust with the FO may at times cloud my ability to be fair with them, but my lack of faith is due to their track record over a long period of time. At any rate, thinking outside-of-the-box a little here has made their pitching plight a little easier to swallow for the next week or so, which also coincides with following the advice of the majority of BL poster's over the past two seasons. If in fact any of the sabermetric wizards who post here had anything at all to do with Swindle's promotion, Myers demotion and possibly Happ's call up, it ought to be said that we should just keep doing what we all do best here...voice it here on BL'er! Maybe someone in the FO really is reading what is written here and filing it for the future. It would never become known publicy, but I'll bet you all are being read by someone in the organization. They are too paranoid and image conscious to have it any other way.

[Joe]

No sentence should ever begin with the phrase:

"Eaton has been better than..."

Eaton sux...send him down to Triple A too. I'm tired of this guy. He is flat out awful. He has been awful since day 1.

What are the odds that he gives up a 1st inning run tonight, or a homerun? Whatever they are, I would put my life savings on it.

[Inside/Outside the Parker]

Bad News on Geoff Jenkins returning to his career averages in the second half:

Brett Favre is currently talking with the Packers about a return. I find it hard to believe that Jenkins will be able to focus on his hitting when he is trying to get into football shape. That is unless you are among the few that believe that Jenkins and Favre are different persons. I want a same room test conducted immediately.

[doubleh]

Parker: I heard that today. I said before I would only believe Favre was retiring if I didn't see him on the field come September.

I think Randy Wolf is Jenkins' doppleganger in MLB. Maybe as Wolf's stats decline, Jenkins' will get better?

[Inside/Outside the Parker]

I'm a little leery of the Campillo guy. He throws almost all strikes. I'm not sure what the Phils will have to swing at.

[Tray]

I would point out about the Marlins that they have, by my rudimentary calculations, one of the five or so most consistent offenses in baseball, which may help explain some of the overperformance vis-a-vis their Pythagorean record, and that they just got their third best hitter back in Willingham, who was out from April 27 till a week ago. Also, Nolasco's been pitching very well of late and Miller's gotten past his rough start, so the 14th in NL in team ERA may not reflect what they'll do in the future. Then again, lately their bullpen's been a huge problem (5.01 ERA in June).

[Willard Preacher]

"Eaton has been better than his two wins suggest because his teammates haven't done him any favors."

So, his teammates are returning the favor from last year????

[doubleh]

Parker: The Phils hit Campillo in the last 3-game series. They got him for 5.1IP, 7H, 3ER. Unfortunately, Eaton's stats (who faced him last time as well) were similar at 6IP, 8H, 3ER. The key to the game was the BP. Durbin and Lidge gave up zero. Boyer took the loss and gave up 4H/3R.

The key tonight is Eaton. He needs to keep them in the game so they can get to the BP.

[Mike]

If they hit like they did last night, I'll take an Eaton Special with a side of 3 effective bullpen innings. My fingers are crossed.

[CJ]

I'm not worried about the Marlins. They're a mirage. Nothing more, nothing less. They're only in this race because the NL East thus far has been a sprint toward mediocrity. Someone will start playing well (I predict Philly) and the Fish will fade.

[Jack]

Andy: From the last post, yeah it was me who asked that question about who would be the first call-up during the season. I don't have time now, but if someone could go back into the archives and find what everyone predicted, that would be amazing. I think that I predicted Condrey would start the season in Triple A and then be the first call-up, but I'm not sure. I'm pretty positive no one predicted R.J. Swindle, and I'm even more positive that no one thought it would be in July.

[Jack]

Andy: From the last post, yeah it was me who asked that question about who would be the first call-up during the season. I don't have time now, but if someone could go back into the archives and find what everyone predicted, that would be amazing. I think that I predicted Condrey would start the season in Triple A and then be the first call-up, but I'm not sure. I'm pretty positive no one predicted R.J. Swindle, and I'm even more positive that no one thought it would be in July.

[Inside/Outside the Parker]

Doubleh: I don't think Campillo will throw them enough balls to induce them to swing.

I really do believe that Pedro Feliz thinks that he is 7'6". How else do you explain his swing zone.

On a serious note:

Sophist brings up a good point about the Phils not having to go to the bullpen as much as a lot of teams this season. I agree however, I am getting slightly concerned with the number of innings that Hamels is throwing. I think he is at 120 innings pitched so far. He is in the top five in MLB and may be in the top 3. I know this for sure, he has thrown more innings than Aaron Harang this season and Harang is a perennial workhorse, who routinely is in the top 5 of innings pitched. I'm not of the belief that Hamels is an inherent injury risk, but he does have a history of injuries. Mostly, I just don't like him throwing on short rest tomorrow.

[Inside/Outside the Parker]

Indeed, the only 2 pitchers in MLB to throw more innings than Cole Hamels are Roy Halladay (135) and Aaron Cook (125.1). Hamels (120) and Aaron Harang (118.2)

Apparently having a bunch of "a's" in ones name helps you pitch a bunch of innings.

[Inside/Outside the Parker]

BTW: I read the other day that Hamels is not All-Star worthy. That is ridiculous.

[fljerry]

Can't believe you guys are not worried about the Marlins. I live here in S Florida and watch them most of the time. They hit with men on not like the Phils. They have some young [pitchers who will be getting better. Hanley is one clutch hitter as you can tell by the last (prvious 3 games)I am a die hard Phils fan but will worry everytime the Phils will be playiong the Marlins. The fish won again today, so they are now one game out of first.

[bay_area_phan]

Parker: It's not that he isn't All Star worthy. But there are only 32 roster spots & each of the 16 NL teams must have a representative. Figure there are 7 spots for starting pitchers. In my view, 4 spots are slam dunks: Webb, Lincecum, Volquez, & Sheets. After that, there's a group of 10 or 12 guys who are more or less equally deserving -- i.e., Hamels, Cook, Lohse, Dempster, Zambrano, Haren, Hudson, Maine, Santana, Peavy, and probably a few more I'm forgetting (you could even make a case that Moyer belongs in that group, if not quite on the merits then at least for nostalgia purposes).

The numbers game also works against Hamels in that Utley will start, Lidge is a slam dunk, & Burrell is very likely to make it as a back-up. On a team that already has 3 representatives, Hamels' numbers don't stand out from the crowd enough to warrant an All Star spot. That's not his fault. But that's life.

[Inside/Outside the Parker]

Fljerry: I am of the belief that the Fish will be flopping around first or second all season. Ricky Nalasco is a much better pitcher than most on here give him credit for. Olsen has matured a great deal. That is a pretty good 1/2 combo. Hendrickson is capable of occasionally going through hot stretches. They also have some younger talent that could emerge in the rotation. To question their hitting would be ridiculous. They lead the NL in HR, and they have been without Uggla for a few days.

[Inside/Outside the Parker]

BAP: I don't personally care if he is on the AS team. In fact I would rather that he, as a pitcher, did not go. However, a very good argument can be made that Hamels has been the best pitcher in all of baseball this season. I'm prepared to get hammered for that comment given Cole's general lack of respect (or at least lack of proper recognition), but I stick by that assertion.

[CJ]

fljerry: Don't let facts get in the way of a bad argument...

with RISP:
FLA .253/.337/.414
PHI .269/.377/.455

[AWH the RBP]

"They lead the NL in HR"

Parker, you might have added "playing half of their games in a very large ballpark".

[Lake Fred]

From two threads ago, it was suggested that Gillick was being a jerk for calling up Swindle for a 2 day cup of coffee for a sure return to Allentown when Condrey returns. I know that minimum MLB money even for two days is a LOT better than AAA money. A couple of days in the "Show" earns what a few weeks in the Pig Sty will get you. I'm sure Swindle is gladly taking the big bucks for a few days.

[Sophist]

doubleh - My point was that - though they haven't lost all their games since May - they've lost more than won. So, by typical understanding, they actually aren't "finding ways to win."

Although, literally, of course they are since they aren't exactly 0-80. However, they aren't playing at the pace at which they started the season. The only way they are in this race until the end is if the winner of the NL East has 83 wins.

fljerry - I worry when the Phils are playing the Marlins too, but that's only bc teams like the Marlins have had the Phils' number for years, despite the Phils' superior record these past 4 years.

---

Parker, why does his IP worry you? Has he shown any signs of fatigue?

I don't ask in a dismissive way, but 120 IP doesn't seem like that many for a guy who's started 17 games. That's about 7.1 IP/start.

According to ESPN, he's throwing 104.8 pitches/game.

Those latter numbers don't really worry me. To me, they simply say he's pitching well.

[Sophist]

For comparison's sake:

Myers: 101.2 IP, 100 P/GS
Hamels: 120 IP, 104.8 P/GS
Moyer: 100.1 IP, 96.4 P/GS
Kendrick: 92.1 IP, 86.6 P/GS
Eaton: 92.2 IP, 93.5 P/GS

Eaton's pitched one less game than the rest, so he should be somewhere closer to Moyer in total IP after tonight.

[doubleh]

Paul D on DNL saying he doesn't see the Phils getting Sabathia, Bedard, Harden or Burnett...we'll probably end up making a "run" at a high-end pitcher but settle for Paul Byrd or his ilk.

I can't tell you how much this makes my blood boil. If this happens, I give up on this team forever. Someone may have to bail me out of the pokey, I swear.

Byrd/Wolf are not the answer. We can get that slop in our minor league system.

[Inside/Outside the Parker]

Here are the Stats that I base the comment on Cole Hamels being one of, if not the best pitcher in MLB:

1.) #3 in overall innings pitched.
2.) Of all of the other pitchers in the top 20 in IP, only one (Dan Haren) has given up less hits (88 in 10 less IP to Hamels' 93)
3.) Tied for 5th in CG, tied for 1st in shutouts
4.) Tied for 4th in MLB in WHIP, but among those in top 20 in WHIP, only two have more K's than Hamels (103) (Halladay 106 in 10 more IP and Ervin Santana 106)
5.) Among pitchers with over 100 IP, Hamels has the lowest BAA. (.212)

[clout]

I'm not worried about the Marlins, with one caveat. If they get Josh Johnson and Anibal Sanchez back before end of season and they pitch like they did in 2006, I will be very worried indeed.

[EastFallowfield]

Hamels has shown Myers how to be a rock star at the end of the game a couple times: throw well enough to pitch a complete game.

[Mike]

Tonight's Lineup:

Rollins SS
Victorino CF
Utley 2B
Howard 1B
Burrell LF
Werth RF
Feliz 3B
Coste C
Eaton P

Would have liked to seen Dobbs get the start at 3rd on his 30th birthday, especially since Campillo is a righty. Werth AND Feliz doesn't seem to make sense on the surface, but maybe there are some stats that show some reasoning behind it.

[curt]

If the other 8 can stay healthy for a change, either Johnson or Sanchez would put them right there.

[Mike]

Also, Larry is in the lineup for the Braves hitting third. Guess the quad is much better.

[doubleh]

Mike: I read today that Campillo absolutely murders left-handed hitters, so that's probably why Werth and Feliz are in over Dobbs and Jenkins.

Altanta must love that Coste is starting. He has good stats against the ATL.

[Mike]

You're right, doubleh. Only 20 hits in 32.2 IP against lefties with a 1.93 ERA and 26 K's. Makes sense now. Apparently some quick research shows he's got a pretty good curve and change.

[Sophist]

Campillo's 2008 stats against RH: .179/.220/.268. 118 PA.

He's an average pitcher against LH this year: .274/.303/.422. 144 PA.

For his career (not a long one) he's .184/.238/.270 against LH (151 PA.)

.302/.335/.508 against RH (194 PA.)

So hopefully starting Werth and Feliz will pay off.

[Andy]

Mike, hh:
Werth has seen Campillo in 3 PAs. He has 3 hits. That may be why he's starting.

[Andy]

Feliz is starting because he's got some pop.

[Sophist]

Whoop, those first two should be flipped. Just got back from the gym and I'm a little hazy. His numbers against LH are better obviously.

[doubleh]

Well, cool...I hope Werth, Coste and Vic murder him tonight, because it's probably going to be a long one for Utley and Howard.

[Andy]

"Just got back from the gym..."

Gettin' back into football shape???

[Andy]

Wow. Dice-K vs. Kazmir tonight. Think we could trade Myers and Eaton for those two?

[Sophist]

I am not who you think I am.

[Andy]

Looking at Campillo's splits, it kind of makes you wonder if Vic and Jimmy should bat righty tonight. I know they won't; but if he really destroys lefties it doesn't make sense to stick to tradition, does it?

[Sophist]

So what's the easiest why to keep track of Myers' start tonight?

[Sophist]

Andy, maybe in a reverse split situation a switch hitter just bats from the side they're more comfortable from?

[Andy]

"I am not who you think I am. "

See? All the greats have their moments of existential angst!

[Andy]

Actually, the way J-Roll's been hitting, he should just crowd the plate from either side and let it hit him.

[Mike]

Thanks, Andy. Hopefully Werth has a big game.

[Sophist]

Wow. Campillo has an impressive BB/K ratio.

[Andy]

Good to see Chase banging on the mistakes.

[Sophist]

Kinda strange to have Vic and Rollins bat from the left there, though. You'd think if you have Werth and Feliz playing you may as well go all in and have your switch hitters bat from the right.

But what do I know.

Just seems strange to start the game L-L-L-L against a guy with his numbers.

[curt]

I feel 2 quick runs for Atl.

[RSB]

4 batters in the first inning, 3 got themselves out. Rollins swung at a terrible 2-1 pitch, Victorino popped out on a pitch at his eyes, and Howard pulled off two consecutive pitches away from him. Have a better approach to those ABs and Utley's double would have meant something.

[Hope SE]

Any late reports on the Myers replacement? They did say they were going to make an announcement today, did they not? Could mean after the game, I guess.

[ajc1]

Howard needs to be dropped in the batting order. Now. This is getting ridiculous.

[curt]

You can thank me for that inning.

[DanTheMan]

carrasco not making his start in reading tonight!! See you Thursday? At the very least he might be taking Happ's spot in Lehigh?

[philsphan]

Today should be Carrasco's day to pitch, but Harker who was called up from Clearwater recently is pitching instead. Is Carrasco injured? Did they want to give him an extra day off because he got shelled in his last start? Or is he Friday's starter?

Chad Durbin is still listed as Friday's starter on yahoo, but nothing official has still not been announced yet.

[JMARR]

Myers through 2 IP

2 Hits
0 Runs
1 BB
2 K's

[CJ]

Thank you, J-Roll.

[phargo]

That's a good picture of Adam Eaton. He looks just like a real pitcher!

[redbeard]

feliz is so graceful, he should look into ballet classes.

nice catch jimmy

[bay_area_phan]

Parker: It requires some extraordinary cherry-picking of stats to come to the conclusion that Hamels has been the best pitcher in baseball this year. Exactly how important is it, for example, that he is third in IP (a stat that says as much about his manager as it does about him)? And how significant is it that he's 5th in the majors in CGs, with a grand total of 2?

His WHIP & BAA are the strongest points in his favor, as they tell us he is allowing few hits & base runners. On the downside, however, when he does allow hits, way too many are homeruns -- which explains why his ERA isn't remotely close to the league leaders.

ERA+ is the best indicator of a pitcher's performance. Hamels' is at 131. Edison Volquez, who has definitely been the game's best pitcher this year, is at 200. Cliff Lee is at 181. Lincecum is at 179 Webb is at 140, Sheets at 152, and Haren at 159. Hamels is a legitimate ace pitcher, & I applaud your enthusiasm for him. But all of these guys are unquestionably having better seasons.

[Sophist]

Surprised that's the first time this year that we watched Feliz and Burrell stammer for a pop-up only to have Rollins bail them out.

Was that the longest one-baserunner inning ever?

[Sophist]

2 SO as well, JMARR.

3 base-runners in 2 IP is not so hot though.

[JMARR]

Sophist - yup 2 K's ... doesn't look at a quick glance that SWB is loaded with sluggers, but you have to hope Brett can go 6 IP+ and keep the ball in the yard.

I'd be happy with

6IP
2 ER
2 BB
6 K's

At this point it will be a miracle if he makes it through the 5th.

[bay_area_phan]

If Carrasco is getting the call-up instead of Happ, let me state -- with the hope of being wrong, but near certainty that I won't be -- that the decision is certifiably nuts.

[PhillyFriar]

@ bay_area_phan:

Could not agree more. Carrasco is not ready for the majors yet, whereas Happ is pretty much the finished product. Let's just hope the early circumstantial evidence is just that -- circumstantial.

[GM-Carson]

For as bad as Carlos Ruiz has been, Chris Coste has been that good. Dude can hit, can't run, but can hit.

[Sophist]

I guess Feliz and Coste found nice little hole out there in left.

Coste not exactly sprinting out of the gate there. We've got some real base cloggers on this team (/sarcasm.)

[Adam]

If the base coach sent Coste, he should lose his job immediately.

[RSB]

Sure is nice not having Andruw Jones around to close those Turner Field gaps anymore.

[redbeard]

did coste go thru a stop sign?

[bay_area_phan]

How Steve Smith could have believed it was a good idea to send the lead-footed Chris Coste home on a single that barely made it past the infield, I have no idea. And, yes, I realize I'm inviting Davthom tirade with that statement.

[Sophist]

Blacno threw that ball 5 or 6 feet left of the plate and they still got Coste. But if you're the Braves' announcers, it was a great throw.

[RSB]

Coste needs to work on his hook slide.

[THe Dude]

Did Coste blow through a stop sign or was he waived in?

[redeard]

whos the slowest phil?

burrell, feliz, coste or manuel?

[curt]

Looks like Rollins and Vic should turn around next time up.

[THe Dude]

too tired to go through all the posts but is Parker now making an argument that Hamels is having the best season of any pitcher?

If so, Parker you really need to lay low for a while and not make so many stupid posts.

[NEPhilliesPhan]

So Bretty is good through 3 so far...it helps when you pitch against minor leaguers I suppose.

[sifl]

redeard: Abe Nunez is so slow that he still holds the record for slowest Phillie.

[Inside/Outside the Parker]

BAP: In my defense, I don't think that it would be fair to compare Hamels stats to a pitcher who had thrown 20-30 less innings than him (Fair to either him or the other pirchers). I chose 100 innings because that seems like a good point of comparison, being halfway to 200 IP.

Plus, most of the guys that are over 100 IP are pitching pretty well.

Also: Those names you listed as having better seasons than Hamels are definitely very good. I'm not definitively saying that he is better. However, some of those guys have enough walks that it will eventually hurt them. It has already started to get Volquez recently. I would put my money on Hamels being better in the end than several of those guys.

[bay_area_phan]

sophist: Yeah, these Braves announcers are hard to take. I think I said this during the last Braves series: they're not the worst crew of announcers but they're the biggest homers.

[sifl]

If Myers looks good tonight, he might be back to the majors after just another start. And if the Phils really are shopping for another pitcher, Eaton might be pitching for his job tonight.

[NEPhilliesPhan]

Nunez is still running out a groundball he hit last Sept...he's almost to first now.

[Sophist]

Yeah, BAP. Only discipline kept me from complaining about 3 or 4 other statements (contradictions, factual errors, homerism.)

[NEPhilliesPhan]

Does Myers pitching "well" in AAA really mean a damn thing though? He pitches well in CBP too and still sucks. He's at 51 pitches through 3 so he's hardly been dominating...or accurate with 31 strikes, 20 balls so far.

[GM-Carson]

Cole Hamels is good, very good in fact, but he's probably going to get number crunched when it comes to an All-Star nod. Utley will be voted a starter for the 3rd straight season, Lidge has been perfect, and Burrell might just get a bench spot. Hamels deserves an All-Star nod, but there's plenty of starting pitchers in the NL who are also worthy (Webb, Haren, Volquez, Lincecum, Sheets, Jurrjens, Santana, Hudson, Cook, Zambrano, Dempster)...see Cole is good, very good, but not yet elite.

[curt]

Braves are making Eaton throw a ton of pitches. And he got screwed on that ball 4 to Johnson.

[Sophist]

NEPP - It would mean more than a damn thing if he were dominant or even very good.

However, his troubles this year have largely been related to control/command problems. His poor ball/strike ratio isn't encouraging.

[NEPhilliesPhan]

I love Hamels as a pitcher but he's not "elite" because if his change isn't going for strikes...he's pretty much screwed as a 2 pitch guy. Until his curve really really improves, he's in that very good category. Give it a year maybe.

[Sophist]

Oh, it would also mean a "damn thing" if he were shelled as well.

[JMARR]

NEPhan - I hear you, but actually I think Myers pitching well is actually important.

About 95% of what is ailing Brett I believe is between his ears. He needs to repeat his delivery, have some success, make some pitches and simply keep the ball in the yard.

"You have to play this game with fear and arrogance"

Rigt now Myers has neither.

[NEPhilliesPhan]

Sophist, I don't agree because he was very good at home this year (mid 3's ERA) and he's still been horrible. His mistakes are getting by right now in Lehigh as his pitch count shows. He's doing very good against below average competition...If he was painting corners it would be different.

[Inside/Outside the Parker]

THe Dude: Nowhere near as good as Kyle Kendrick, obviously.

BTW: Whatever faults I have in my opinions on baseball (and there are many), I can definitely say that I was not among those who were bashing Hamels for going on the DL last season (ex. calling him a panzy or crude references to the female anatomy). I felt then, as I do now, that it was not the classiest moment, and was actually downright disgusting. I'm not mentioning any names, just pointing it out because I mentioned the disrespect he gets.

[NEPhilliesPhan]

Good point on the confidence thing JMARR.

[NEPhilliesPhan]

So through 4...0 ER, 0 R, 67 pitches (40 strikes)