Minors: Myers to start Saturday night in Reading

Making his second start for the Triple-A IronPigs, Brett Myers lasted 7 1-3 innings, allowing seven hits, two earned runs while striking out six. He’ll pitch for Double-A Reading later this week.

Myers threw 114 pitches, 72 for strikes, in a better effort than his previous outing. “They said I hit 94 [mph] a couple of times; I'll go with that,'' Myers told the Morning Call. ''It felt a heck of a lot better than the last time.'' The report noted that Myers used his fastball about 70 percent of the time. Myers and the Pigs overcame Homer Bailey and the Louisville Bats 4-3.

Myers will be facing Akron this weekend, a team that will include outfielder Matt LaPorta, the top prospect who was dealt to Cleveland as part of the CC Sabathia deal to Milwaukee. Akron is one of the best teams in minor league baseball this season (56-33,.629), so it should be a good test for Myers. The IronPigs will visit Pawtucket, so I supposed his progress will be easier to monitor. I also can't imagine Myers would be hip to the Triple-A road trip.

Taylor struggling: Outfielder Michael Taylor is 9-for-50 since his promotion to Class-A Clearwater. He had been leading the Sally League in several offensive categories earlier this season with Low-A Lakewood.

Phils ink Penn State catcher: The Phillies have signed catcher Joe Blackburn, a graduate of nearby Wilson High School, according to the Reading Eagle. With Penn State this season, the 6-4, 215 pound catcher finished with a .429 on-base percentage and a .497 slugging percentage while stealing 10 bags. He went undrafted and had been playing in the independent Frontier League.

Slayden extends hitting streak to 13 games: Reading outfielder Jeremy Slayden continues to be one of the hottest hitters in the Phillies’ chain, adding to his hitting streak with a 1-for-3 game yesterday. On the season, the soon-to-be 26-year-old, who bats from the left side, is hitting .300/.383/.498 and is producing equally against right-handed and left-handed pitching. As a prospect, his advanced age, defensive limitations and speed are working against him.

Comments

[Tray]

I noticed in today's Inquirer that Myers said he didn't hope to be back with the team after the All-Star break, he planned on it. Kind of dismaying.

[Jack]

Tray: Myers will be back after 20 days. It's the agreement they came to, and it was a precondition of him agreeing to go down to the minors. He'll make 3 starts in the minors and then rejoin the rotation. Nothing will have been accomplished.

[clout]

That last thread was strange. We have Wes Chamberlain saying the Phillies win because of Feliz and lose because of Dobbs and half a dozen other posters saying the season's over. Is it Stupid Day on Beerleaguer?

[Tray]

Yeah, I was hoping their agreement wasn't quite as set in stone as you think it was. You're probably right.

[clout]

Jack: "Nothing will have been accomplished."

Wow, that's kind of pessimistic. If he continues to pitch well in the minors perhaps he'll regain confidence and his location. Then something would've been accomplished.

[Brian G]

clout: I think everyone is confused because you haven't come out to officially categorize the loss as "directly attributable to the bullpen."

[clout]

Brian G: Well, the bullpen gave up the runs that made the difference in the game didn't it?

[Jack]

Clout: Considering the bullpen gave up 2 runs in over 6 innings, and Adam Eaton gave up 8 runs in just under 2 runs, it would take an amazing lack of common sense and judgement to blame the loss on the bullpen.

[Jack]

I meant "just over 2 innings" there.

[Brian G]

Exactly. And usually you come out and declare in as pompous a manner as internet posting will allow that somehow it's needed to "let the record show" that this is the case, as if it proves some underlying point that no one can quite figure out.

[clout]

You're right. It was all Dobbs' fault.

[clout]

Brian G: My underlying point of keeping that tally last season was that the bullpen sucked and cost the team more than 20 losses. Feel free to disagree.

[Tray]

The bullpen did give up the decisive 2 runs, but if we were going to assess blame, wouldn't you have to put this loss on Eaton (2.2 innings, 8 runs allowed, albeit 2 unearned), not the bullpen (6.1 innings, 2 runs allowed)? You can say how it's the bullpen's job to hold the line all day but I don't think you can complain much about 2 runs in over 6 innings.

[Jack]

I think the point was it was clearly Adam Eaton's fault. The offense scored 9 runs and the bullpen pitched double the innings they usually do and only gave up 2 runs.

Adam Eaton pitched 2.2 innings and gave up 8 runs.

How is that in any way acceptable?

[Tray]

My point being that the tally of losses directly attributable to the bullpen can be kind of misleading.

[Sophist]

flipper - I didn't write what I posted. It was a quotation from Baseball Prospectus.

Bob, game score gives pitchers more points the more innings they pitch, and the value of outs increase, I believe, the later in the game the out occurs. Guys like Moyer, though effective all year, don't get high game scores because they don't pitch deep into games. This explains why Moyer, though he's been an above average pitcher this year by other measures (ERA+ among them) is not above average in GS.

The same is true of Kendrick.

This reemphasizes the crucial success of the 'pen this year.

flipper - Burrell has been a slightly above average player for his career. WS, while giving a player a little credit for clutch hitting, isn't a stat that purely measures clutch hitting. A player also contributes wins with defense, by the way, so it's not even a purely offensive stat.

Burrell isn't an elite hitter, so doesn't consistently rank among the top players in WS. His defense is below league average as well, so that isn't doing him any favors.

Point is, it's hard to read anything about Burrell's clutchness from WS. And, as I said, he hasn't even been a #5 hitter his whole career; but only about 40% of the time coming into 2008.

THT keeps a clutch stat, that is mostly derived from a player's performance with RISP. It's not a perfect stat, but here's Burrell's standing since 2005:

05: 7.0 (7th in NL)
06: -6.6 (?)
07: 1.3 (32nd in NL)
08: -.3 (37th in NL)

That there is very little consistency from year to year is a warning sign that this stat measures a lot of nothing. For instance, both Burrell and Eckstein were among the league leaders in Clutch in '05 and both had negative clutch in '06 (ECK was -4.2.)

That Ryan Howard leads the NL in clutch this season (by 4 no less) should also be an indicator of this stat's ability to accurately measure what it purports to be measuring.

[clout]

Jack: I know you're itching for a fight, but you'll have to post something I disagree with to get one going.

[Brian G]

I don't disagree. But you also said it after this year's Texas loss where our bullpen gave up 2 earned in 6 innings. I just feel there are better, less arbitrary ways to judge bullpen performance. Ways that actually make sense.

[Marc H]

Clout: It IS over. The Mets have the look of a team ready to go on a run and the Philiies are stuck in quicksand. The starting pitrching problems will become clearer as Moyer starts to tire. And forget about this team ever being able to manufacture tough runs. They have a totally one-dimensional, home-run orie ted offense.

[Bedrosian's Beard]

From what Bottalico said on the radio today, Myers pitched well last night but seemed to level off, then when the score tightened (in the 6th?), Myers went out and struck out the side (3 of his 6 K's were in one inning). It was suggested that it seem like he went a bit lax out there then turned it on when he had to.

[Bedrosian's Beard]

(adding to my post above:) Turning it on when he had to, but not going out there and being the dominant guy he could be. All in his head.

[clout]

Brian G: I agree that some games the bullpen blows are games in which the bullpen did pretty well. But in the vast majority of games the bullpen lost last season, that wasn't the case.

[Sophist]

flipper - THT does separate WS that come only from batting. Here are Burrell's numbers and rank among OF in the NL since 2005:

05: 22.9 (7)
06: 14.1 (15)
07: 19.2 (7)
08: 11.9 (5)

[clout]

Marc H: "It IS over."

Yeah, a team in first place really ought to throw in the towel at All-State break.

[Tray]

How do you even argue with nonsense like what Marc just said? "Gee, the Mets don't have the look of a team ready to go on a run to me... I don't see that ready to go on a run look in their eyes"? This is the problem with non-falsifiable arguments.

[Jack]

Marc H: Please read this article so you and everyone else who bemoans the strikeouts on this team will realize that strikeouts have absolutely NO correlation with success or winning. In fact, the graph in this article indicates there may even be a slight positive correlation between strikeouts and run production.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2617

[Tray]

Don't you think, though, that there might be a small correlation between the percentage of runs scored via home run and winning? The idea being that overreliance on the home run might make your offense less consistent, more susceptible to low-scoring games, etc.

[Sophist]

The Phils do have some lead-feet on the team, but they are also probably the best base-stealing team of the last few years in terms of efficiency. Rollins and Victorino add dimension to the offense as does, to a lesser extent, Utley and Werth.

[Jack]

Tray: Sure, I think that is possible. Probable? No. But certainly possible. I would just like to see some data on it before I bitch and moan about it. There's plenty of other stuff I do know to be true to bitch and moan about...

[Jack]

Tray: I also do know that there is no correlation between offensive consistency and winning. Someone posted a Hardball Times article a few weeks ago that showed that data.

[Tray]

Yeah, but like Sophist said a few days back, lower-scoring teams will be more consistent because they hardly ever score many runs, so what you need to do is calculate standard deviation over runs scored. Maybe Hardball Times did that, maybe they didn't. I fooled around with the numbers a little and it looked to me like the teams that were inconsistent were doing worse than their Pythags, while the teams that were really consistent outperformed them.

[Jack]

I should clarify- I'm not sure that I KNOW anything. I believe, based on what I've seen and what makes logical sense, that there is no long-term correlation between offensive consistency and winning.

Also, I strongly believe that there is no negative correlation between strikeouts and run production.

[clout]

Jack: I'm guessing the reason teams that strikeout a lot win more is because teams that strikeout a lot usually hit a lot more HRs than other teams. Most HR hitters are high K guys. But I'd bet you get an even higher win correalation with teams that walk the most.

[Jack]

Tray: That's actually pretty interesting. Can you show me some of those numbers on the relationship between consistency and performance based on pythag?

Also, that article shows that the Phillies were actually the 2nd most consistent offensive team in baseball last year.

[Tray]

Yeah, I'm not saying there is a correlation between consistency itself and winning, I'm saying that if two teams score n runs, the more consistent of the two ought to win more games. That's eminently logical.

[Jack]

Tray: Sure, that is logical. The question though, is whether offensive consistency is a skill or luck. I believe it's luck, and thus can't really be used as either a predictive measure or one to make judgements based on.

[baxter]

Why do beerleaguers hate home runs so much?

[Tray]

Well, I think it's possible that less power-centric offenses tend to be more consistent. For instance, Boston scores the same number of runs than us, hits way fewer home runs, and is way more consistent. Then again, I also found that Florida's one of the most consistent teams in baseball, and they're even more reliant on home runs than we are. Another non luck-related explanation you could offer is that some players actually are streakier than others, and if you have a team full of streaky players you'll be more inconsistent.

[Brian G]

Jack: I may be missing something, but that Baseball Prospectus article you linked to didn't say much.
The question that needs to be answered, on a team level, is if all OPS compositions are created equal, or if equal OPSs with different K rates have different run outputs.

Baxter: Fantastic question.

[Marc H]

I am a Phillies fan and I will be delighted if I'm proven wrong and they win the Division. I just don't see it happening, that's all. To me,they are an 85 win team as they are presently comprised.

[CJ]

I love home runs.

But some people prefer "ballplayers" with "heart" and "grit."

Some people believe Adam Dunn blows but love Jason Varitek because he's a battler.

Some people are really, really dumb.

[The Truth Injection]

Stupid Phillies. how dare they have a 2 game lead in the East. They should fold up shop now and quit since they're done according to Marc H.

[blah]

wife beater

[Lake Fred]

clout was partially right in declaring this to be Stupid Day on BL. Judging from the stuff written last night, we may be in the midst of Stupid Week leading up to the All Star game.

Arthritis was what ended Sandy Koufax' career. He won 27 games, then hung 'em up. Bedard has an arthritic hip?!!! I'm not too thrilled about getting him, either.