Saturday: Make it two-straight duds from Hamels

Left-hander Cole Hamels allowed a pair of home runs in a 6-3 loss to St. Louis. The staff ace fell to 9-7.

There’s nothing to like about win/loss statistics as a measuring stick for pitchers, but in the case of Hamels, it paints a portrait of dysfunction from a team and pitcher that seem to be out of sync with each other. When he pitches well, the bats go silent. When he’s rocked, like last Saturday, they pull through.

Hamels hasn’t been getting the consistent run support he deserves, but he mixed in too many costly mistakes last night and the loss was all his. His fastball and change-up were up in the zone, and to their credit, the Cardinals made him pay with great swings. For all his talent, Hamels can really get hurt if he’s out over the plate. His fastball doesn’t move and a hanging change is easily destroyed, so he needs to hit his spots. His breaking ball was absent from last night’s contest as well. Just a forgettable night for the ace.

Turning to the offense, Charlie Manuel didn’t have his best lineup on the field. Starting Eric Bruntlett at third was a mistake against a right-handed pitcher. He’s a marginal defensive upgrade over Greg Dobbs at third, but not enough to burden the lineup with another weak bat. Bruntlett fanned three times and committed a costly throwing error. It was an awkward game and Manuel didn’t play his cards right. You can also see they're starting to get a little short-handed with their bench and bullpen.

With the loss, the Phils fell to 20-28 against opponents over .500.

Comments

[Sophist]

I can't believe there was some dope on here arguing that Bruntlett should have started that game last night. The Phils gave away an out every time he stepped to the plate and his defense is no different than Dobbs'.

Last night's game was disappointing. Hamels seemed rattled from the 1-3 and settled after. Phillies' chances were limited by their weakened lineup, but I did think they'd score a few in the 8th. Howard's shot right at Pujols, that could have easily lead to 1st and 3rd no outs, well, it went right at Pujols.

Standard loss, not too worried since I didn't learn anything new. Manuel is still costing this team outs with his decisions (Bruntlett), Rollins and Utley are turning it around, Madson is ebbing, Hamels is a bit of a headcase.

From my seats behind home plate, the umps' zone seemed a bit wild.

Does STL have a higher team AVG then the Phils? From a look at the lineups, it seems they must.

[Sophist]

STL is 2nd in the NL in AVG and OBP behind the Cards. Phils are 8th and 6th. But the Phils are 1st in SLG. Cards a respectable 5th. Phils score 5.04 R/G. Cards score 4.79 R/G.

[EastFallowfield]

Bruntlett did walk in the 9th and make one great play.

[J. Weitzel]

It's pretty simple. Bruntlett isn't a starter, especially against a right-hander. Ideally, he's the last man on a bench.

[Bedrosian's Beard]

It's a shame the bench now consists of unusable Cervenak(sp) and now Walrond(sp). Taguchi is close to that level, as well.

[Andy]

I find it interesting that when someone new is called up from the minors, Chollie always seems to wait until he's desperate before he gets used. It's true of hitters and pitchers. He'll overwork Lidge and Durbin but keep Happ fastened to the pine. (And part of Seanez problem, IMO, is inactivity for weeks on end.)

Now, with Happy out, he sits Cervenak. Why not see what the kid can do? Try him.

He'll probably go back to LV after two weeks without even a PH assignment. I'm tempted to give odds that Hamels sees duty as a PH before Cervenak.

[B. Gizzle]

LOL, on a team with So Taguchi, Bruntlett will never be the 25th man.

Joe Mather has no business hitting a 3 run tater against our supposed ace...will Hollywood Hamels step up to the the spotlight of a pennant run, or become a shrinking violet under the pressure?

[GM-Carson]

Neither Dobbs nor Bruntlett have been any good when starting at 3rd base this season.

And I'm glad Chooch is hitting better lately, but why the hell is Manuel getting overly happy with him and not playing Coste?

[GM-Carson]

I wish Cole Hamels was as good as he thinks he is.

[phlipper]

Not arguing as to whether Brunlett should have started...

but I have to wonder whether if Dobbs had come through in his key PH at bat, suddenly people would been oddly unaware that had he started, he would have been unavailable in that situation.

The problem isn't so much that Cholly starts Bruntlett or Dobbs, as it is that he's making a choice between a bad option and a worse option.

[Brian]

Seanez to the DL with "injury" nice move phillies

[Inside/Outside the Parker]

The Hamels bashing is humorous, but off base. Two bad starts in about 2 months and people are suddenly questioning his talent. It is the ultimate "what have you done for me in the last 5 minutes" argument. Suddenly his confidence becomes "headcase" issues and he is arrogant. I'm not buying it. Personally, I want the best pitcher on the team to think he is the ultimate bad-arse. I don't want someone looking like Adam Eaton, afraid to throw strikes to Randy Johnson or Jo-Jo Reyes. If Hamels thinks he is Batman/Superman, good. I'll stop believing it when I see them in the same room.

[clout]

flipper: "Not arguing as to whether Brunlett should have started..."

Then what was your point in attacking me for suggesting Dobbs should start vs. RHP? If you agree that Dobbs should've started, then what was your point? And if that's your belief, and I think we all agree Bruntlett is the better fielder, how do you square it with this wacky statement?

"I'd say a single error is more likely to lead to a run allowed than a single base hit or walk is likely to lead to a run scored."

[clout]

Jason: This bears repeating because it is the story of the 2008 Philadelphia Phillies: "With the loss, the Phils fell to 20-28 against opponents over .500."

[Sophist]

Right, Parker. Hamels, last I checked, led all starting pitchers in WHIP.

Dobbs starting against a RHP is not a "bad option" especially when his inadequacies (defense) aren't being upgraded by his replacement. His numbers off RHP are very good. I'd trade 4 good AB for one possible PH AB from Dobbs in every game. I understand that some people want Dobbs available to PH, but when the starter is injured something has to suffer. In this case it will be the bench when the Phils face a RHP.

[Reed]

The all-star snub/break and taking a week off instead of starting that 1st game in FL seems to have thrown Cole off. He did pitch well in FL in his 1st start, but it seemed like he threw 80% off-speed. That being said, he needs to step up right now and start winning games for this club. He is supposed to start or extend winning streaks and halt losing streaks...not the other way around.

The Phils need a 3rd baseman and they don't need to make a "big splash". If Mark Grudz can still play 3rd, I think they need to get him. They need a contact bat like his.

Big start for Country Joe today...it would be nice to see a 7 inning, 2 run outing and a W. The Phils need to put up 8 runs tonight. I will go nuts if they revert to their anemic ways. The Cardinal pitchers they are facing should have the hitters salivating.

[Mr. Mack]

A few observations as August begins:

- The lack of a real hard throwing, fastball type in the starting five seems to be something that the Phillies are missing. Watching breaking ball after breaking ball from various pitchers on the staff seems that it might be an advantage for some opposing teams. Timing is an important part of hitting and other teams seem to be able to get into a zone after the first game of each series. This is why so many series start out with a Phillies win followed by two losses. There is no break in the rotation with a flame thrower, followed by an offspeed stuff pitcher. I also wonder if the order of the rotation right now is the best one possible.

- The bench is not 25 men deep right now. I agree that some of these minor league players/call ups should be given a chance to perform under the bright lights. We already know what the current back ups can/can't do. Pete Laforrest where are you? Lol.

- The bullpen is showing signs of wear & tear now. I am not sure they have enough left to give over the last two months. Seanez lack of work may have worked against him some, but I think his age and the long season have more likely taken their toll. Again, I would rather give a young guy a shot as opposed to trotting out there the same Value Village retreads that we already know what the outcome will be. When some of these guys come in, I get the same feeling I did last year with the Octopus.

[phlipper]

Since Tray provided a more well-developed analysis than I have, I'll repost his comment from the last thread.

I'm all for starting Dobbs over Bruntlett, but are 2.6 outs per 100 PA's really all that much more important than 6 runs per 100 games? Say there are 400 PA's in the hundred games, that's just 10.4 more outs vis-a-vis a cost of six runs. Now how much does the average out cost you in expected runs? It certainly isn't a 1:1 ratio.

When you add to that the advantage of having the possibility of selectively bringing in Dobbs to PH in key at bats, the advantages of starting Dobbs over Bruntlett are even further undermined.

Even more, Tray's point is made even stronger when you're comparing Dobbs' defense to Feliz's.

[Steve M.]

Talking about Dobbs' poor fielding ability, it appears as though, comparing RF/9 and fielding % numbers over their careers, Dobbs is statistically a better fielder than Bruntlett at third base. Yes, the data is based off of small sample sizes, but still, it appears as though Dobbs' offense and defense trump those of Bruntlett. That being said, Charlie is probably just waiting to use Dobbs as a PH in a clutch situation against a RHP in the late innings because we don't really have a viable replacement for Dobbs in that situation.

[clout]

flipper: Garbage in/garbage out. We've debated this before, but Tray's assumption that Feliz's glove saves 6 runs per 100 games is just that: An assumption based on guesswork fielding stats. Also, it is impossible to prove that Dobbs in 1 AB will provide more offense than Dobbs in 4 ABs. Not to mention illogical.

[B. Gizzle]

"Suddenly his confidence becomes "headcase" issues and he is arrogant. I'm not buying it. Personally, I want the best pitcher on the team to think he is the ultimate bad-arse."

No one said he was a head case, but when you put yourself out there that you think you will have multiple no-hitters in your career, and that you are a stopper, you can't let people like Joe F'n Mather treat you like a Home Run Derby pitcher. Hamels is a great pitcher, but in a lineup where Pujols goes 0-fer, you can't let up on the lesser guys. And bad-arses usually have a fastball above 94 ;)

Victorino has been good lately, but holy crap, with a runner on first and no outs, can you advance him instead of flying out to center? Can Milt guide him to hitting through the hole...that was a glaring miscue in my opinion. If Rollins is on second with one out, Lohse has to change his approach to Utley. Just an observation...

[clout]

Steve M: "Charlie is probably just waiting to use Dobbs as a PH in a clutch situation against a RHP in the late innings."

And that's why we saw Dobbs come up in the 9th with the team down by 3 runs. Meanwhile, Bruntlett was striking out 3 times, leaving a runner on base and making an error.

Yeah, that makes sense. Smart strategy.

[donc]

I know Cole didn't have a good night, but considering he has a broken arm I think he did well. Seriously, I didn't get to see the part of the game he pitched. JW made it sound like he just didn't have it. How bad was he? Is anybody starting to worry?

[Inside/Outside the Parker]

94+MPH fastball=/=good.

Daniel Cabrera can throw almost 100, so can Fransico Rosario and Kyle Farnsworth. Nobody is going to accuse those guys of being good pitchers. A fastball is no good unless you have something to throw off of it. If that was all it took, then guys like Maddux (prime), Halladay, Johan Santana and Tom Glavine (prime) would be chumps. Fransico Rosario and Ambiorix Burgos would be future Hall of Famers. B. Gizzle, wake me up when that happens.

[donc]

Parker: You are undoubtedly correct. But it would be nice to have somebody other than Lidge who can throw some gas. If you covered their numbers and put masks on them, a lot of our pitchers would be hard to distinguish from one another. I have a sneaking suspicion that Blanton and Eaton are almost identical except for Blanton's butt ugly delivery.

[THe Dude]

Last night's demonstrated again whats been wrong with this offense for years. A total lack of hitters that go up to the plate with a plan, work the pitchers to a favorable count and move runners when needed. Its unbelievable how much more fundamentally sound the Cards are than us. It a blue print that has been shown to work. You get your power hitter and put quality hitters around him that know their damn roles and do the right things to make the franchise player better. Its also clearly evident who this year's real NL MVP is - Pujols. THe guy is a monster and without him they are just a bunch of guys that nobody's heard of.

Andy - Cervenak is 31 and there's a reason he's only been on a major league roster 2 times in his career. Its because he's just org filler and here to keep the bench warm until some waiver trade can be made. I gotta think that Gillick/Amaro or whoever is running this team realizes that without a quality bat at 3rd this team's offense is just too eratic to sustain winning streaks especially against good pitching like the NL contenders have.

Happ - is clearly being held back for long relief work either today or tomorrow. Last night would have been his day to pitch if still in the minors. I still gotta think that something is brewing with the pen and this rotation. Somethings gotta give and not sure what that is at this point though.

[redbeard]

20-28 to teams over .500 is a sobering stat

this team just doesnt seem good enough

and hearing arbuckle yesterday say AGAIN that the pitchers out there before trade deadline (and in the offseason) werent as good as brett if he pitches like they hope he will, pisses me off. id rather they just not talk at all, instead of hearing that garbage again.

[donc]

The bad weather today is interfering with the reception on my car radio. WFAN isn't coming in well. Too bad. After a particularly galling Mets loss I love to hear their fans apoplectic rantings. You'd expect a line waiting to jump off the Brooklyn Bridge after last night's debacle. And you know what lives under the bridge....Trolls.

[MG]

The Dude - Phils knew that it made sense to pull Eaton out of the rotation and insert Blanton. That was a no-brainer. I don't think the front office or the coaching staff though knows what to do with Happ.

It is pretty clearly evident that Happ was brought up because:

1. He is a lefty
2. The Phils don't have a single bullpen pitcher at Reading or Allentown worth bringing up
3. Clearly aren't sold that Myers can return to the rotation (regardless of what they have said publicly) even though I think they are going to give him at least another 2-3 starts after his efforts against the Nats.

Basically it just leaves Happ in temporary limbo and the Phils a man short in the pen. Just poor decision-making all around.

[MG]

redbeard - On Arbuckle, it really pissed me off when he was so callous and condescending at the trade deadline about why the Phils didn't make a deal. I understand it appears that sellers greatly overvalued their commodities (two prospects including a top guy for the likes of Traschner is nuts and gives further merit to his critics out here that Sabean has lot his touch completely).

What did piss me off was that Arbuckle said that others teams highly valued the Phils' minor system and they had tons of calls including those involving Donald and Marson.

Wish the reporters had called him on this BS or asked him a question like - "The Reading Phils were touted in the preseason as having an incredibly talented team both on the field and the pitching mound. While a few players like Marson, Donald, and Carrasco have shown that they may contribute down the road to the big league club, the RPhils are largely are a poor team that is devoid of talent or depth. There record gives some validity to this and they haven't sniffed .500 in months are are likely to finish with one of the worst records in the Eastern League. Wasn't the farm system supposed to have been rebuilt to a larger degree after having tons of draft picks the previous 3 years?"

[Bryan]

Carrasco to LV
Walrond to Philly

Could Les be the missing extra lefty in the pen?

[donc]

MG: Great point about the Arbuckle comments regarding other teams esteem for our farm system. How self-serving, not to mention transparent, was that? I saw it and actually forgot about it until you brought it up. He really seemed to get a pass on that one. Even I missed it, though I have a bad habit of tuning the spin-masters that work for our teams out. They're not much more than glorified propogandists anyway. That really was a bush league comment though. Good job to call him on it.

[Andy]

On the really encouraging (in the most ironic sense possible) front, the bizarre delay in starting Hamels after the break means that 3 of his next 4 starts will be day games. We know how well our resident vampire does in those.

[MG]

One thing that you haven't heard a peep though about this year is the power struggle that must be in pretty full swing between Amaro and Arbuckle for the GM job since it is about 95% certain that Gillick won't be back.

At this point, you have to figure there are at least 2 factions (Amaro and Arbuckle camp) who are angling for the job. Maybe a 3rd camp that wants to go with a total outsider but I would be stunned if the Phils brought in a high-profile GM like Cashman or a relatively new and unproven like a number of teams have done in recent years (Texas, KC, etc).

Absolutely can't stand listening to Amaro but Arbuckle isn't much better either. I am not a fan of Gillick but he doesn't go the extra mile to pour on the BS as thick as either Amaro or Arbuckle. One of the most interesting (and completely ignored things) is who is speaking to the media and on what matters this year.

Recent trade deadline was a great indication of how the Phils are thinking - they trot out Gillick to make his statement about the "4th starter" deal to save some face and make it appear as if it just fell through, Amaro was heavily involved prior to the trade deadline talking about the Phils' interest or non-interest in players, and Arbuckle was only really trotted out after the deadline to defend the Phils' largely woeful farm system.

If I had to get a read it is this - Amaro clearly has the upper hand and is the heir apparent to Gillick. He is the guy the Phils bring out to various media to handle a range of issues while Arbuckle is delegated to handle really just a single internal one.

In my experience, any time that happens at a company it is highly unlikely the manager/VP/CEO of that single internal group is completely out of the running for the front office position unless he gets an unlikely power broker to step in. This could be somebody from the board or an activist shareholder who holds a minor but significant portion of the company since.

Since the Phils aren't a publicly traded company, the only way that Arbuckle gets the GM job this year is if one of the Phils' ownership partners steps in and really goes to bat for him. Given the indications on how this team is run, that is incredibly unlikely too.

If I had to put a bet right now on the Phils, it would be that Amaro is named GM sometime in Nov. It will happen later if the Phils make the playoffs by winning the East again and they try to extend the good will it will buy them again (including sneaking in another decent ticket price increase and pushing out season ticket renewals early to cash in just as they did last offseason).

Arbuckle mostly like gets a chance to stay in his current role but if he is actually pushes for the GM job and loses he will be out.

Just a thought train since I am a little tired of rehashing the glories of Eric Bruntlett.

[RSB]

The Dude: what's amazing is that you could have made the exact same claim when comparing the Cardinals' intelligence and fundamentals when contrasted with the Phillies' plodding density at pretty much any point in the last 20 years. I clearly recall thinking the exact same thing in the early '90s as I did last night. It's no accident that the two organizations have the respective history and reputation that they do.

So now Walrond is up to be the lefty reliever du jour, while Seanez gets some R & R. And Happ remains on the all-limbo squad five days later. I swear to god, I don't even think this team knows what the hell it's doing sometimes. Pretty clearly, they were expecting that a spot would open up for him due to a trade that ended up not happening - and yet he remains on the roster, utterly without a role, the rhythm of his season in danger of being significantly disrupted. Now that they weren't able to do anything with the roster, it's almost like they're just waiting to see who falters next so they can throw Happ in the rotation and think up more fake injuries to toss out at the press. If they were suddenly so determined to give Happ a shot, then *why the hell did they bother with Joe Blanton?!*

And all of that doesn't even address the dead weight of Taguchi and Cervenek which they continue to carry around for no apparent reason...

(okay, you can all commence with the 'I'd just like to see the comments if they were 10 games out!' barbs.)

[MG]

One last rant on ownership:

- You heard Stark and others trot out the tired comment about how the Phils are "13th in team revenues last year." What is obviously ignores is the market opportunity for the Phils (play in one of the largest markets with another team) and the fact the average ticket prices at CBP are well above 13th in the league too.

So the ownership is too foolish/uncreative to maximize their revenues opportunities (although I will give the Phils credit for this and that it seems that their marketing team is actually fairly well run and willing to try a range of tactics/strategies) and they aren't adverse to charging fans a much higher ticket price in comparison to the rest of the league (or for more that matter when they were at the Vet when the Phils' were one of the cheaper average ticket prices in the league if I recall).

[MG]

RSB - If you believe the Phils and they were going to trade for yet another back-end rotation, I don't think they brought up Happ with the intention of putting him the rotation. Even if they traded Myers or somebody from the rotation, they would have supposedly acquired another guy.

If the Phils have anything right now, it is that they are awash in mediocre starters. Only way I can see that they brought up Happ to insert him into the rotation is if they weren't sold on Myers (and are thinking about putting him back in the pen) or that one of their other starters is hurt and going to have to go on the DL shortly (Hamels?).

[awh the rbp]

Using my bberry from bch so I'll b brief

Disspointed. Lst night was winnable game, though no phils besides burrell have shown they can hit lohse

Record vs 500 tms is largely due to iterleague

What's phils record vs nl +500 teams?

If they make playoffs this could be indicator of how they'll fare

Forget a ws win even if they make it unless stars align

[MG]

Random thought before off to climb:

- Given Hamels struggles in day-time starts (including his implosion against the Braves), is it safe to say that Hamels is like Bizarro Superman and that yellow sunlight weakens him?

[donc]

MG: Total Agreement. The chances of them bringing in some heavyweight from outside the organization are remote. They did that with Gillick and because he was just looking for a paycheck for a couple of years he was more like a flyweight. They want a lap dog. That's what you get when you promote from within. Amaro and Arbuckle are clearly beholden to many in the Phillies hierarchy. And I don't mean beholden in the way that any well compensated employee should be. I'm talking about an honest to goodness yes-man. It was reasonable to assume that Gillick would come in here with some sort of mandate for real change but we found out about 15 minutes into his tenure that he wasn't hear for the long haul. So in reality these two "well qualified, home grown candidates" studied at the knee of Ed Wade and a Pat Gillick that had clearly lost his fastball. I don't see where either of these guys comes off as anything but more of the same. Whoever they bring in will get the same marching orders; compete for the division and don't go over $100,000,000 in payroll. If attendance gets a little soft we'll add a few dollar dog nights and maybe a Terry Harmon bobble head. Short of ownership change (are you listening Brian Roberts), I think we could be in this neighborhod for quite some time.

[ozark]

Maybe Hamels was wearing the wrong undershirt.

[Tray]

Clout, that wasn't my assumption. I just repeated what Dave X said some sabermetric site says about Dobbs's defense.

[RSB]

MG: all indications are that they brought Happ up to be a starter. They haven't even used him once in relief. Although they keep denying it, the only scenario that's plausible here is that they are intending to move Myers to set-up relief. He had a good start at Washington, so now he gets another shot. But if he falters this time, I would not be surprised to see Happ take his spot. There's no one else in the rotation who you can imagine they would displace.

[Dull]

Rod Nichols must be a genius at Lehigh Valley turning all these pitchers around first Happ, then Myers now Walrond. Now he gets a chance to work with Carrasco. The Phils pick up Walrond from Iowa in the PCL where in 7 relief appearances over 11 innings gives up 20 hits and 8 earned runs and opponents hit .377 off him. Nichols then turns him into the best starting pitcher in the IL. Only the Phils would then call him to be a lefty reliever in the MLB. But after all the PCL is a hitter league.

[AFish]

The Phillies are facing right handers for the next four games. I'm sure they're going to rotate Dobbs and Bruntlett at third. I think Dobbs was hurt earlier this year, and it is possible he can't play every day.

I am more worried about starting Jenkins for five straight games. Personally, I'd probably give Werth a couple starts, even against RHP.

For those complaining about Ruiz getting playing time, don't you remember what happened when Coste started playing the majority of games? His production went down the tubes. Coste will probably continue to start three times a week. I think that is probably best.

[Sophist]

what are other first and second place teams' records agaisnt winning teams in MLB and the NL?

[B. Gizzle]

"94+MPH fastball=/=good.

Daniel Cabrera can throw almost 100, so can Fransico Rosario and Kyle Farnsworth. Nobody is going to accuse those guys of being good pitchers."

Being a good pitcher wasn't the issue...I was making light of the fact that someone else referred to him as a bad ass. Bad asses don't top off at 94 mph...I said he was a great pitcher, just not as great as he thinks he is. If he was on any other team and talked like he does, we would despise him and delight when he fails. Since he is on our team, his "self-confidence" is celebrated. It is a simple concept, no one is saying he is a bad pitcher, just that he has had some bad games.