Labor Day thread: Phils visit Washington for three

The Phillies open the final month of the season with a trip to our nation's capital for a three-game set with the last-place Nationals. Game one fires off at 3:30 ET. Live posting will resume tonight following the game. Enjoy the rest of your holiday weekend everyone.

Comments

[DanTheMan]

So what do we think on weighing Hamels' pitch count on Tuesday vs. how tired the bullpen is. Do you limit him to 90 pitches in hopes that he can be fresh for the Mets on Sunday? Or is it not worth it with how worn down the pen is?

[bay_area_phan]

Well, I just wasted 10 minutes of my day typing this post, only to have it appear at the end of the last thread where no one will read it. So here it is again, whether off-topic or not:

More on Ryan Howard. I've been pretty harsh on Howard this year, but think about what would happen if you replaced him with a higher-OBP, lower-power first baseman like, say Derek Lee or Mark Teixeira. While both those guys are having better years than Howard, you would definitely lose a large number of RBIs if you put them in the Phillies' lineup instead of Howard (for reasons discussed in my posts of last night). On the other hand, you would get a big boost in OBP. The problem is, after Burrell, there's no one in the lineup to drive those runs in. For most of the year, Jenkins was in the 6th spot and, after that, comes the black hole.

It just might be that, for this year, Howard has been a better fit for the Phillies' dysfunctional lineup than a lot of other first baseman who are actually having much better all-around seasons. But, going forward, my concern about Howard is that the 2009 version will be much like the 2008 version -- only without the flukishly high numbers with RISP. If that's the case, then his RBI totals will go down considerably and he will become a huge drain on the lineup.

[TK]

worst thumbnail of the year. lol.

I'll be there tomorrow night. Today I'll be watching from home along with the Mets/Brewers and the SCARLET KNIGHTS!!

[bay_area_phan]

So I guess over the last month of the season, Golson will replace Taguchi as the designated pinch runner/defensive replacement for Burrell. In other words, get ready to see Greg Golson batting in a lof of critical late-game situations after the opposing team has come back to tie the game. I suppose he can't be any worse than Taguchi has been. If his bat accidentally hits the ball, he can even hit a homerun now and then -- which is more than can be said for Taguchi.

[redbeard]

bap, with the expanded roster wont there be other guys left on the bench who can come in and hit for golson if its extremely critical to get a hit at that atbat?

[bay_area_phan]

redbeard: Well, as of now, Golson and Marson are the only extra bats the Phillies have added. But, hey, Adam Eaton is a pretty good hitter. I guess they could use him to pinch hit for Golson in the 11th inning of a tied game.

[CJ]

bap: I wouldn't imagine the Phils are done bringing up additional players.

On a related note... weren't people ripping the FO for not planning to bring up Marson? I would imagine a few people owe the FO an apology! ;-)

[The Theory]

"For most of the year, Jenkins was in the 6th spot and, after that, comes the black hole."

With the recent Utley-Burrell-Howard order it seems as though the bottom half (often some combination Vic-Werth-Feliz/Dobbs-Coste/Ruiz-Pitcher) has been much more effective. While I still wouldn't count on them to deliver every single time, it isn't as though my confidence in Rollins-Utley-Burrell-Howard is really high, either.

[Bonehead]

I would hope that the roster expansion is not yet finished. Snelling, Cervenak, Bohn, Harman. Obviously, none of these guys is world beaters. But why put yourself in a position of running out of players when you don't have to.

[bay_area_phan]

CJ: Your post so mischaracterizes what the "ripping" was about that is sounds like it was written by the FO itself.

The ripping was not because the FO didn't plan to bring Marson up in September (which they have said from Day 1, they planned to do). The ripping was because the FO didn't call him up 3 months ago. Instead, they continued to start a .221-hitting catcher who has an OPS of .600 and is a human double play machine.

[clout]

Theory: When the bottom of the order is Vic-Feliz-Ruiz vs. RHP, it is one of the worst 6-8 hitters in the league. Check out the OPS+ of that trio compared to any of the other contenders or even some .500 teams.

[Mick O]

When someone says "He just hasn't been from an overall offensive production standpoint one of the best 10 1B in the league." I contend they've lost sight of what the terms "overall" and "production" means. It's better to say that he's not in the top 10 in supporting stats. Because in actual production, he's leading the league.

It is in the stats that usually predict how production happens that he has been awful. But, the production itself is there. He had to run uphill to do it, but he's doing it.

Looking at Howard's supporting stats, you'd say odds were against him producing. Yet, still he did.

I'm *happy* he's lucky. I think it's a *good thing*. As a fan I *enjoy* it when someone gets it does against the odds. I don't grumble about it and belittle other people who see it as a fun thing to behold.

[CJ]

bap: Perhaps I was being a bit harsh... but there were quite a few declarations that Marson would not be brought up this year and complaints that it was because they didn't want to start his clock. This happened about the time it was announced he was headed to the AFL.

And, frankly, I still don't think there was enough cause to bring him up earlier in the year.

[curt]

Vic-Feliz-Ruiz vs. RHP?? How many times has that happened this year? 3? 5?

[curt]

Not a single arm to help out of the pen --what a ghastly farm.

[bay_area_phan]

Mick: That's a good post. I think you have really nailed the issue better than any other post I have seen on the subject: "It is in the stats that usually predict how production happens that [Howard] has been awful. But, the production itself is there."

When the 2008 season is over, the Phillies will need to ask themselves some hard questions about Ryan Howard. Is the 2009 Ryan Howard likely to resemble the 2008 version, or some prior version? And if he resembles the 2008 version, how likely is it that he can again hit .230 but maintain a high level of efficiency with runners on base? Were those RISP numbers a fluke, a product of the shift (or lack thereof), or some combination of both? And if his numbers with RISP are closer to .230 than to .297, how many RBIs would be lost?

Somehwere in all this analysis, the Phillies also have to weigh the cost of keeping Ryan Howard; what they could get for him in a trade; what they would do with his would-be salary if he were traded; and how they would make up for his run-producing abilities if he were gone.

[TK]

JA Happ won't help out the pen?

[CJ]

Vic-Feliz-Ruiz batted 6-7-8 on one occasion this year. August 21 vs. RHP Tim Redding. Vic was 2-4 with a run scored. Feliz was 0-2 before being lifted for a pinch hitter. Ruiz was 1-4 with a solo home run.

[MG]

TK - No not really. Happ has been a starter almost all year and given that it is very unlikely that he will pitch much more frequently than once a week at most - I would be shocked if he is sharp or effective. In fact, I would be surprised if Happ wracks up more than 2 or 3 appearances down the stretch.

[clout]

CJ, curt: Sorry, I misstated the order, but not the participants. How about Feliz-Vic-Ruiz and Jenkins-Feliz-Ruiz. You think that's a big difference? I'd love to see your defense of the bottom of the Phillies order.

[MG]

BAP - I am a big Howard supporter but looking at those HR and RBIs in lieu of anything else is antiquated. Over the past 20-25 years, there have been a bunch of stats that are much more effective at evaluating a player's overall offense effectiveness.

Granted, Howard's raw power numbers are impressive (particularly in the post-steroid ERA where it looks 40+ HRs is becoming much more meaningful again) but his .SLG percentage this year just isn't that impressive.

In fact, he is just 6th in the NL out of 13 and 11th out of 24th in MLB among 1B in .SLG percentage. Now his ISO (which is a better indication of Howard's raw power), is .257. That is much better but it puts him at 5th. Good but not the best in the league.

As for RC (which is my one of my favorites), it is 5.44 which is just 16th out 24 in MLB among 1B. Any way you slice, Howard just has been an average 1B offensively this year.

[The Pattison Pundit]

With Howard, the strikeouts and low BA are frustrating, of course (though a solid point about the shift hurting his numbers with nobody on base, bay_area_phan). I just don't see how you replace a guy who is basically a lock to give you 40+ homers a year and 125+ RBI's. Many guys in this league get on base more and strike out less than Mr. Howard - almost none are a lock to give you his power numbers every year.

[Jack]

Clout- We all understand Golson is a bad hitter. Really, we do. The only point is that he is, by all accounts, a good defensive player and a fast runner. Should he be used to PH in a key spot? No. But if he happens to get a few ABs in the course of being used as defensive replacement, and he strikes out a bunch, so what? Taguchi would have done that anyway. You don't have to keep pointing out that he's a bad hitter, everyone knows this. Players can have value outside of that, especially guys who are gonna play like 6 innings the whole month. It's not a big deal at all.

[JMS]

Sorry to see that Eaton is back. Hopefully Kendrick can go long today, and we've seen the magic Myers can work on Washington.

Lessgo Phils!

[GM-Carson]

Jayson Werth had a good week- .500 batting average (12-24) with 3 doubles, 4 homeruns, 8 runs scored, 9 rbi, 7 walks, 1 stolen base, and a spiffy 1.738 OPS.

[clout]

Jack: "It's not a big deal at all."

Interesting prediction. If Golson winds up at bat in a tough spot would you like me to remind you of that prediction?

[MG]

BAP - I agree that you have to wonder about Howard's productivity going ahead forward. If I were the Phils, I would be less concerned about his RISP production that the continued slide in his BB% and his BB/K ratio.

BB%
2006 - 15.7%
2007 - 16.8%
2008 - 11.7% (barely above MLB average)

BB/K
2006 - 0.60
2007 - 0.54
2008 - 0.39 (which is below MLB average and more worrisome than Howard's raw K numbers)

[clout]

Jack: And you keep posting "we." Did you get elected Speaker of the Board?

[MG]

The obsession with Howard's Ks is ridiculous. The "productive outs" is largely bunk. Which is worrisome though is his fall-off in plate disclipine this year which has taken a real hit. I could care less if Howard strikes out vs hitting a ground ball or fly out. Same thing for his prodigious rate of Ks as long as he walks a very good clip.

[clout]

MG: The story of Howard's off-season is the sharp decline in walks, as you note. His plate discipline has gone to hell and I wonder what the reason is.

[CJ]

clout: Two things.

1) I'm not defending the bottom of the lineup. I'm on record saying it has massive holes... especially against RHP when Feliz is in the game. I was merely answering the question posed. I prefer this lineup with Vic in the 6th hole. Although his OPS may still be low overall... his OPS from the 6 hole is 1.017, although that's in just 9 games started. More to the point, since July 6th, his OPS is .893, and that's a valid sample size, IMO.

2) It's not like Taguchi was racking up the at bats (25 in the last two months) so I'm not all that worried about Golson racking them up either.

[MG]

You don't replace Howard's raw numbers but that is not the right question - Do you lock Howard long-term at premier dollars if he gives you 2008 type offensive production? The answer would have to be no.

I also ask you this - name one part of Howard's game that has improved since he came up in 2006. I can't think of one and it is worrisome to hear comments this year that he refuses to watch video of his ABs or other pitchers or heed hitting advice from the coaching staff (including Cholly).

[clout]

CJ: Ah, so Vic magically gets transformed as a hitter simply by batting 6th. In the same way Dobbs is magically transformed when he plays an OF corner as opposed to 3B.

BTW, I have no problem batting Vic 6th. My point is the bottom of the Phillies order vs. RHP when Feliz plays (and especially when Ruiz is also playing) is weaker than most teams in the league.

[TK]

MG: I think J.A. will definitely help with the 6th/7th innings and if they need someone to go longer in extra innings. I would have loved to get the 8th inning guy from the minors or off waivers as well, but with Fuentes not available there wasn't really much hope there. Romero should become the permanent 8th inning guy from here on out, and then the bullpen will look much better.

[MG]

Clout - My bet is that teams have made tactical adjustments (e.g. "the shift") over the past 1 1/2 half and have plenty of scouting advice on him now on how LHP and RHP should approach him.

Granted Howard still crushes stuff middle-in the zone and even muscles out some pitches with raw strength. Still, unless he makes the adjustments this offseason my bet is that his 2008 numbers are going to be what Howard produces going ahead forward.

[MG]

TK - Gillick was totally blowing smoke up about the usefulness of Happ to this current roster given the way:

1. Cholly leans heavily on his veteran pitchers and utilizes his bullpen
2. Already has two lefties in the pen now including a situational guy (Eyre) who has Cholly's "trust"

I highly doubt Happ contributes anything down the stretch. About the only way he would is if he is a spot starter somewhere because a starter goes down with an injury.

[TK]

MG: we will see how he's used, and you may be right as he's the third lefty in the pen. I just think Happ is at least a reliable pen guy and therefore I think having him back helps the for the stretch run.

BTW, Brewers are up 1-0 already on the Mets. An even bigger story is the friggin' Mets didn't score in the first inning for the first time since like July.

[CJ]

clout: Now aren't you the one who harps on reading comprehension? I specifically pointed out the sample size for a reason. It's not to say he magically gets better, but that he's done very well there. More to the point (the one you ignored) is that he's been very good the last few months regardless of where he's hit.

And, as I also stated, the bottom of the lineup is a problem especially with Feliz vs. RHP.

[denny b.]

Phils lineup today against Cy Redding:

Rollins
Vic
Utley
Howard
Werth (LF)
Dobbs
Stairs (RF)
Coste
Kendrick

[CJ]

Interesting lineup... good day to give PtB the day off vs. a righty. Probably our best offensive lineup right now vs. RHP.

[Im a Met Fan]

Brew crew looks like they are going to be really tough in the post-season with CC and sheets. I havent watched sheets this year but he is toying with the met hitters. and we all know about CC

[toddfromfairmount]

TAKE OVER SHEA DAY!!! 9/6/08

just a reminder about the plan to get as many phillie phans to shea stadium for our last saturday game there ever.

my group will having a huge tailgate with an early morning start, and ill have some mets fans there we can make fun of.

lets get up there and remind them to never for get '07.

[CJ]

Really bad news about the Brewers... whoever wins the East will have to face Milwaukee in the playoffs unless they lose the wildcard. The Cubs will definitely face the NL division winner since their recrod is so bad.

[redbeard]

tom "long winded" mccarthy needs to take notes watching the national guys on how to report while the game is going on.

god i hate that man.

[MG]

CJ - Agreed. Burrell really looked like he needed a day. Hopefully Stairs has a base hit or two and is not a complete liability in the field.

[MG]

Met - Agreed. Brewers have a more suspect bullpen and a manager almost always manage to stumble over himself (Yost) but Sabathia/Sheets is arguably the best 1-2 punch right now in MLB.

[Iceman]

Sheets is getting taken out of the game in the 5th inning? Great. He was dealing. He's gotta be hurt.

[redbeard]

how does howard swing at that. that was terrible plate discipline.

[MG]

Ugh. Phils really needed Howard to step up there.

[MG]

Iceman - That is the huge question mark with Harden and Sheets. Can they both stay healthy until the playoffs? My bet is that at least one of them goes down given their track record the past few years.

[Im a Met Fan]

Yea sheets only threw 54 pitches i think and he got pulled... Id love to have sheets as a met this year, but i hope we dont sign him in the off-season, he is injured way too often. MG -- If the mets get there id rather face the cubs. Zambrano is one bad error away from a blow up every game, Harden can cruise or walk 8 in a game and im still not sold on dempster... This team though has some very good hitters, the way they are pulling santanas low and away changeup is really amazing. Also santana has his stuff today so its a testament to these brewers hitters

[Iceman]

I have been a fervent supporter of Kendrick, but my patience is quickly wearing thin.

[redbeard]

this looks like its gonna be a long day.

kendrick looks like garbage

[bay_area_phan]

This is already looking like too many of KK's recent starts. If KK throws strikes, he's a back-end major league starter. If he doesn't throw strikes, he's a Triple A pitcher. Lately, he hasn't thrown strikes.

[denny b.]

This is not the same Kyle Kendrick as last year or from early this year.

His command is just awful. And, if he doesn't have command, he does not belong in the big leagues. He falls behind hitters now, at an alarming rate.

This guy, the way he has been pitching for the past 2 months, has no business pitching against the Mets (with Hamels available on full rest) on Sunday. None. Not at this time of the year.

[denny b.]

This is terrible. KK looks like Steve Blass.

Is Happ in the park today? Get him up Cholly.

[redbeard]

when was the last time happ pitched?

[mikes77phillies]

Hopefully Cholly sees the light and lets Kyle miss a turn in the rotation. Kendrick has been getting by on smoke and mirrors this year.

Sending Kendrick out there against the Mets is like concedeing a loss with all those Switch hitters and LH batters they have. Plus the bull-pen will be spent for two more games after, when he pitches.

[Connie Mack]

how good can a transit system be if it is getting that many people there at the end of the first inning

[MG]

Letting "Cy" Redding off the hook in the 1st inning looks like it is going to haunt this team. Phils need at least 5 today from Kendrick.

[EastFallowfield]

Had no trouble getting around DC on their transit system when we visited back in June. Plenty of trains and info and it was a weekend. Maybe folks were just late.

[Connie Mack]

old time baseball says stairs is dropped on his next at bat for the last play in right

[redbeard]

its almost like they are trying to lose

[jb]

The Phils need to skip Kendrick's next start and let Hamels go against Santana on Sunday. There is an off day on Thursday so it will be regular rest for Cole.

[SJ-Mike]

It appears KK made a preemptive move to protect Stairs. Is it just me or does it look like they've place the tv cameras in blimps for the game?

[bay_area_phan]

KK is lucky he's facing the worst hitting team in baseball, because he's just not sharp at all.

[MG]

I don't know if KK is looking like Steve Blass but he is struggling mightily to find the job.

[MG]

BAP - Agreed. This lineup of notorious hackers like Dukes, Guzman, and Milledge is really helping KK stay in this game.

[MG]

It just mystifies me how Redding has shut down this team. His stuff isn't great today (although it is much better since the 1st inning) and he has been generally getting lite up since the All-Star break.

[curt]

I'm quickly realizing that I need a nap.

[Hope SE]

Cy Redding with a no no through 4.

[craig_one]

cmon phillies!

[curt]

It's also starting to feel like a waste of a beautiful holiday afternoon.

[redbeard]

this is bullshlt

[curt]

Watching KK labor through an inning is just painful.

[Iceman]

Right down the middle...didn't see that one coming.

[koolearl]

i am drunk. what is the phils problem with redden.

[Dave X]

Kendrick's R/G of 5.33 is 7th to last out of qualified NL starters. It will be worse after this game.

[redbeard]

enough is enough, yank him

[curt]

Even with the Nats doing their damndest to help KK out he can't get through the inning.

[Iceman]

Has Kendrick thrown a strike today that wasn't right down the middle?

[Sophist]

Iceman, that one that the ump called a ball before the next pitch was laced for a double and the Nats' 4th run.

[Iceman]

This is absolutely pathetic. If Kendrick pitches Sunday against Johan, they are just conceding a loss.

[curt]

The KK magic is fading. Fortunately, we've got a couple guys ready to try out for the job.

[curt]

The only drama left is whether Cy can throw a no hitter.

[bay_area_phan]

Earlier someone asked why on earth the Phillies called up Eaton. I believe it was for situations exactly like this. Then again, maybe 6 runs isn't enough of a deficit to warrant bringing in Eaton. We did come back from a 6-run deficit only last week. Of course, that could probably only happen against the Mets' bullpen.

[Sophist]

Kendrick's last 4 starts: 17.2 IP, 8.15 ERA, .946 OPS against.

[Hope SE]

Delgado homers in 8th, 3-2 Mets

[Iceman]

Hey here's a shocker, Gagne blew it against the Mets by giving up a 2 run bomb to Delgado.

[philsphan]

I would only bring in Adam Eaton if there is a difference of 10 runs or more...

I don't think the Phillies are going to do anything against Redding today, but if they can keep making him pitch they might be able to get at the Nats bullpen.

[GoPhilsGo]

I think the Phils called up Eaton because that was part of the deal when they sent him down. Not that couldn't have changed their mind...

[Hope SE]

make that 4-2 Mutts

[Iceman]

Gagne is a joke and should be banned from the MLB for stealing money based on past steroids use.

[denny b.]

Roids' Gagne getting lit up like a Christmas Tree in Milwaukee.

Looks like its going to be 2 back again.

[Steve Jeltz]

FWIW, I'd have preferred to watch Golson strike out there than watch So popup. I've seen So make enough outs this season....give someone else a chance.

[TK]

If Hamels doesn't start that Sunday game against the Mets there should be an organized protest outside of the ballpark for the next home game to management. Then again, it may not even matter as the Phils will probalby be 5 back by then.

[curt]

With Eaton back that makes 3 pitchers I'd rather see PH ahead of Taguchi. That is if one can still legitimately call Eaton a pitcher anymore.

[philsphan]

Gagne has been worse than Eaton since the trade to the Red Sox last year. The brewers would be better off with Alfonseca, Mesa, or Eaton himself.

[Hope SE]

Phils' hitters, besides having a mental block with Redding on the mound, have to also be having a mental let down from 4 very tough games in Chicago. They are just dead at the plate.

[denny b.]

Speaking of stealing money...

Taguchi has stolen money this year. Hamels has more hits then he does (I think). He's had 1 play of any significance all year long.