Postgame: Hot Howard helps Phillies take first step

Ryan Howard hit his third home run in as many days, while Jamie Moyer earned his 14th win and pitched into the sixth inning on short rest, as the Phils closed the gap with the Wild Card-leading Brewers with a 6-3 victory.

Other standouts included Ryan Madson, who pitched two shutout innings of relief, and Carlos Ruiz, who answered back after a two-run Milwaukee sixth with an RBI double in the home half. Chooch then added a successful suicide squeeze in the eighth to cap the scoring for Philadelphia. I missed the game due to my participation in Reading Phillies Fantasy Day (my boxscore would read 1-for-2 with a double and strikeout, plus I also pinch ran for John Kruk, advaced to second on a passed ball and would eventually score). But from the comments and radio postgame, it sounded like a good one, and obviously it's great to see Moyer beat Ben Sheets under the circumstances. Unfortunately, there's little reason to soak it up since they need many more. They trail the Brewers and idle Mets by three games, but the Mets hold a four-game advantage in the loss column.

Comments

[vegas]

Ya mon, Moyer is Mr. Clutch is big games. How about Ruiz showing some game, I love the small ball. And I like the big ball by the big man. The 10 game winning streak starts..........now.

[MG]

Slight revision of my last points:

You look at the Astros right now and have to be wondering how they are getting it done. While Oswalt has been pitching out of his mind, a couple of ex-Phils (Wolf and Geary) are pitching really well too.

One guy who has almost completely gone below the radar is Hawkins. His fastball has had good life on it and he has been moving down guys left and right including a streak of 13 scoreless innings in 16 appearances since the Astros picked him up.

It seems like every season there are at least 2-3 veteran relievers who largely bomb out, get released or traded for $.20 on the dollar mid-season, and manage to come back/pitch very effectively down the stretch.

Hawkins is the perfect example. Giraldi abused his arm to start the season and he had a dead arm by the ASB (but had a relatively like workload from about mid-June through the end of July).

The Astros traded a 2nd tier prospect for Hawkins on July 30th and the Astros did pick up the remainder of his salary for the final 2 months of the season.

So basically, for a little of a $1M a year, the Phils could have had Hawkins for the final 2 months of the year (and by this point they already knew that Gordon had gone for the year and they needed another arm for the pen).

Does this sound familiar? It should because it is basically what the Phils did last year when they picked up Romero and he appeared in his first game July 1st with the Phils. I would argue that without the "gift from heaven" in Romero this team wouldn't have won the NL East and been home yet again in Oct.

Gillick did make a savvy move in picking up Eyre to fill a season-long whole in the pen (situational lefty) and got Blanton to replace Eaton (average is still better crap) but he still came up a move short.

I actually advocated and was hoping the Phils would have made a move for Hawkins but they never seen interested. It seemed like the perfect move for them.

So basically, for a little of a $1M a year, the Phils could have had Hawkins for the final 2 months of the year (and by this point they already knew that Gordon had gone for the year and they needed another arm for the pen).

It will be a damn shame if this team misses the playoffs because they either didn't pick a guy like Hawkins or get one more reliable arm for the pen (and I will still argue that it was getting just another reliable arm would have done the job and they didn't need to trade for a setup man because known were available).

Perfect example to rip the Phils F.O. in their shortsideness and incredibly risk averse strategy. Instead of risking spending an additional $1M, the Phils might miss the playoffs and the additional at least $20M+ this would have ensured in their coffers between the playoff revenue and this offseason season (higher season ticket sales, ability to increase ticket prices a bit more, and more attractive rates to advertisers.)

Sometimes it amazes me how fiscally stupid and shortsighted the management of this team can be. If I were a private equity guy, I would go in there and clean out this nest of largely untalented, old white guys and really maximize the profits.

[MG]

Two last minor points:

- If the Phils had a farm system that had produced A SINGLE PITCHER this year who would have been able to slide into the pen the whole Hawkins post (and the issues with the exhausted pen) might largely have been moot points.

- Gordon went on the DL on July 7 and Seanez went on the DL on Aug 2 (and didn't come until Aug. 18th and has been used by Cholly very reluctantly since then). So basically, this took out 2 guys who were big contributors to the pen the first 2 months of the season.

I went back and looked at the Game Logs and the subtractions of the pen of Seanez/Gordon meant all of the Phils primary back end bullpen guys were utilized particularly heavy from the first week of July through August. Madson through alot, Romero appeared in a ton of games (which often get overlooked vs. IP), and Durbin had an increased workload too.

Basically, if the Phils don't make the playoffs people will point fingers at the decline in runs or the poor first half by Eaton/Myers but a key culprit too was were the Gordon/Seanez injuries which placed an interesting workload on Madson, Romero, and Durbin which started to show in the later part of August.

[Verdeforce]

MG - I think once you get over 10 paragraphs you either need to start your own blog or pay Weitzel some sort of sublet fee....

[denny b.]

The Phils will win at least 3 out of 4 in this series. A sweep is also not out of the question, with 3 straight mediocre right handers ready to serve em' up the next 3 games.

They will be right back in the playoff hunt, in both the East and the Wild Card by Monday. That's the Phillies way. Do it the hard way and do it, when most folks think its over.

The Brewers are a fraud, and are starting down the same path they went last year. Sabathia or not, I don't buy the Brewers for a second. Sheets had nothing tonight, and it if wasn't for Rollins getting thrown out in the 6th trying to stretch a single into a double, would have had a couple of more runs against him. But, that's the Phils. Make it harder then it should be.

And, nobody, is losing sleep on facing Solomon Torres and Eric Gagne late in a game. And, that's the best they got in that pen. Anybody think Solomon Torres is going to close out a tight game, in late September, with the season on the line? Uhh, I don't have a lot of faith in that happening, no matter who they are playing.

You win at least 3 out of 4 here, and you have a lot of Braves and Nationals cannon-fodder left to finish the season. There is still hope and still time to get this done, in either race.

Now, if only Utley would do something here for the last 2 weeks. To say he is due for a hot streak, is an understatement.

[Adam]

How do the Mets seem to get a day off after or before any crucial series late in the season?

[denny b.]

BTW, for those looking ahead to next week...

Phils go to Atlanta, for 3 games. They are likely to throw Myers, Moyer and Hamels in those 3 games. The Braves should counter with James Parr (a rookie RHP making his 3rd major league start), Jair Jurrjins and Mike Hampton.

The Brewers head to Chicago for 3 games. The Cubs will be out to put the nail in their coffins, for the division. The Brewers will throw Sabathia and Sheets in the first 2 games in that series, though.

The Mets head to Washington, to beat up on the Nats pitching again. Maybe the Nats can rekindle the magic they had, at home, against them, from late last year. They did fight hard this past week in Shea, but just ran out of pitching.

[MG]

Verfeforce - Just a rant inspired by Red Bull and a break from mind-crushing system checks.

[MG]

Adam - I won't call playing the Braves a "crucial series" and it is there last of the season. Granted the Mets have a million arms (I think 11 or 12 in their pen) but they play 17 straight games to finish the season. Have have to hope that Niese, Pedro, and Perez have a few early exits that tax the pen. Otherwise, I don't see the Mets losing the NL East.

[bay_area_phan]

Denny: Agreed that the Brewers do look like a team that's trying to choke it away. Their lineup doesn't impress me at all. Way too many low average, all-or-nothing homerun hitters. They're like the Phillies to the 3rd power.

The Phillies may do their part to put a real hurt on the slumping Brewers, but I don't think they'll sweep and I don't think they'll get into the playoffs. As I posted before the series, I could see them winning the first 3, but then they'll lose the 4th because that's just the Phillies' way this year. Literally every time this year that you think they've grabbed some momentum, they turn around and blow it the very next day.

Without a sweep, the Phillies would have to win a good 8 or 9 of their last 12 games, and I've seen nothing this year to indicate that this up-and-down team can pull off that kind of strong finish. In a tight playoff race, the winner is usually the team that is hottest at the end. That is the Astros, who also have the advantage of playing an exceedingly weak schedule.

[Mark B.]

Way to go Jamie. Howard is sizzling. I look for at least 50 HRs from him and still think that the Phils will end on top in the NL East.
Carlos Ruiz deserves a lot of credit in this one; the 3rd strike doubleplay on the attempted steal, the RBI double and the suicide-squeeze bunt! Let's keep it up -- we need at least 3 of 4 from the Brewers.

[Tray]

If we won the division, I might think about Howard as MVP.

[Verdeforce]

You've got to mix the red bull with vodka or something - no more drinking it straight for you MG!

[Verdeforce]

Tray - I don't think that will happen, but if we make the playoffs look for a certain Mr. Lidge to get the Cy Young....

[Jon]

Nice win against a falling team. Howard, Moyer, and Madson came up huge. I expect great things from Hamels tonight. Go Phils!

[phargo]

Good Morning.

I *heart* Pappy.

[Dave X]

Howard has been insane recently, and is quickly turning a below-average season into an above-average one.

[Dave X]

By 1B standards, anyway, he's still quite away from his prolific 06-07 production.

[GM-Carson]

3 Doors Down?:

Knock-Knock.
Who is it?
Phillies.
Phillies who?
Phillies are 3 games back of the New York Mets and Milwaukee Brewers for a spot in the 2008 playoffs.

[clout]

Important game for Hamels tonight because the next two, behind Blanton and TBA, are going to be iffy.

[BobbyD]

The Phillies beat a great pitcher last night, and come back with their own ace tonight. In other words, exactly the kind of game they've been losing all year.

Big props to Howard and Rollins for finally picking it up. Just imagine if they didn't lose 2 out of 3 to the Marlins. But if they win tonight like they should, it at least makes the weekend interesting.

[Rollinsux]

MG,

While your point was taken that the Phillies FO doesn't make sound moves, second guessing not signing LaTroy "Latoya" Hawkins is about as weak as it gets. The guy was absolutely awful, which is why the Yankees released him. I follow the Yankees and the guy was consistently brutal besides a week here or there.

[MPN]

Adam: That was the Mets last off day for the entire season. They play 17 straight. We, and the Astros and Brewers on the other hand, have two off days moving forward.

[tom]

As frustrating as Ruiz has been, he's finishing big. Batting .309 from 8/10 to 9/11.

Over that same time frame The Bat is hitting .192 with a .611 OPS. I wonder if he can actually hear his money getting flushed down the toilet.

I didn't see either game but the Mets' Perez/Pelfrey combined for 8.1IP and surrendered 12 runs in their starts against the Nationals. Yeah the Mets won both games, but are their starters worse off than ours?

[Bubba]

a good win like last night certainly does change the tone of this board.
Win one tonight and we can really pick up the vibe here.

[MPN]

clout: Did you see that with last night's win Jamie Moyer surpassed Juan Marichal's career win total?

[MPN]

(He also triggered a $250k bonus for surpassing 175IP. Another bonus of $250K is triggered at 185IP.)

[clout]

rollinsux: That was also true of Romero last year and Eyre this year. Your point?

[clout]

MPN: I didn't see that. Great for Moyer, who's a class act and a big-game pitcher.

[Bubba]

MPN- interesting point on the bonus triggers for Jamie- Clearly a case of money well spent .

[Rollinsux]

My point is it's foolish to say We should have signed some guy who has stunk, like MG knew he was gonna turn it around. He showed no signs of turning it around, other than "a change of scenary" could help, which you can say for just about everyone.

Relievers are total crapshoots, but I wouldn't have gotten my panties in a twist if Brian Stokes was picked up by the Rockies and did awesome, since he showed no signs of being good.

[MPN]

clout: Yes, and he has the most wins for a pitcher 45 or over in a season who doesn't throw a knuckleball. According to ESPN.

Agreed that he is a total class act.

Bubba: Agreed. The trade for Moyer in 2006 has been a real savior for Gillick's trade record in Philly.

[phReed]

On Howard, I have a feeling that teams are going to start treating Howard like September 06 Howard - intentional walk in non-intentional walk situations. Ironically, Utley and Burrell have been in funks during the big man's run here. These 2 are going to need to snap out of whatever they are in since they should either see more pitches to hit or hit with runner(s) on.

Parra may pitch to Howard tonight since he's lefty, but I can see Howard racking up a bunch of IBBs Saturday and Sunday.

We need Cole to be Cole tonight.

[T Mac]

I was thinking before this series that Howard was going to explode for something like 3 HR and 8 RBI against the Brew Crew. Make no doubt about it, Howard is going to have another monster September. From 2005-2007, Howard has a line of .307/.447/.693 in September!
If we make it to the playoffs, he will be the MVP.

[Reed]

TMac, I hope that is true, but if I am a manager and I see PtB in the on deck circle, I don't even throw anything near the strike zone to Howard. When Howard is locked in, he may be the most game-changing slugger in baseball.

If the Phils make the playoffs, Utley and Burell have to pick up the slack big time.

[Wally Ritchie]

Ryan Howard now leads ALL OF MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL in HR's (leads by 7) and leads ALL OF MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL in RBI's (leads by 5). I understand the argument that you can't judge everything about a player's production from RBI's but you also can't simply ignore those stats. If the season ended today, I couldn't say he had a poor season, although it was erratic and doesn't make a lot of sense considering his other stats. I think the fact that his stats are where they are with people thinking he's sucked is a testament to the ridiculous expectations he set up for himself.

If I'm his agent I make this argument at arbitration. Yes, his BA, OBP, slugging etc. has decreased the past three years. Yes, he just set the all-time strikeout record. Yes, he had a below average season in 2008. AND HE STILL LED MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL IN HR'S AND RBI'S!

He may turn the "Howard's having a bad season" argument right back on the Phils.

[Sophist]

I couldn't watch the game last night, since I am - for a time - without internet. But it looked like a great game. Sheets has been lights out lately, so it seems the Phils finally knocked around a solid pitcher.

I'd love to take a look at Howard's plate discipline and other batting stats since ASB. It's amazing his on/off switch. Here's a small sample of what's he done to LHP in Sept.

7 G, 16 AB, 6 SO, .313/.313/.750. No walk rate to speak of, but that AVG and SLG are robust.

[Sophist]

Latest ELO-adjusted playoff odds (the Astros are climbing!)

division

Mets - 87
Phils - 13

WC

Brewers - 58
Phils - 15
Astros - 15
Cubs - 5
Mets - 4

[T Mac]

Reed,

You make a good point about pitching around Howard if no one else is producing around him. That's why a few days back I suggested moving Howard up and Utley down in the order, and stand by my lineup I posted then:
1. Victorino
2. Rollins
3. Howard
4. Werth
5. Utley
6. Dobbs/Felix
7. Burrell/Stairs/Jenkins
8. Ruiz/Coste
9. Pitcher

[diggitydave]

I was at a bar last night watching the game and I almost had a stroke watching the Phils actually lay down a successful suicide squeeze.. I can't remember the last time I saw the Phils try one - really couldn't believe my eyes..

And hey clearly Howard's home run and double were huge but the biggest hit last night? Ruiz's double in the 6th. There was only one out but the pitcher (Madson) was on deck and about to bat for himself. If Chooch doesn't knock in Feliz right there, the inning is over and you go to the late stages of the game only up by one. How many times have you seen the Phillies stop scoring after the early part of the game and blow it late? That hit to give us some breathing room was enormous.

[PhillR]

Wally: You really can ignore the RBI stat. They don't mean much if anything about Ryan's performance, all they convey is information about the lineup in front of him.

His HRs numbers are great. I never once said he had a poor season. He hasn't. Its been a could season. However its also one more data point in a downward trend line.

I think everyone here takes it as a given that the Phillies wont spend the $ to retain Howard. At that point it becomes a given that trading him will be the right choice at some point.

His trends tell me that next season he will decline further. Its possible he won't, its reasonable to hope that he won't, but the conclusion that he will is the most logical.

I say maximize return. Right now he will nets us a super premium package. In two years, he won't.

[PhillR]

*good not could.

[T Mac]

"You really can ignore the RBI stat. They don't mean much if anything about Ryan's performance, all they convey is information about the lineup in front of him."

Sorry, I can't let this ignorance pass without comment and cold, hard facts.

Here is where the lineup in front of Howard ranks in OBP in the NL.

Batting #1 - 8th (.348)
Batting #2 - 6th (.344)
Batting #3 - 7th (.360)

Doesn't this make Howard's numbers look all the more impressive now?

What you can ignore (to an extent) is his Batting Average. The fact is, with runners on and in clutch situations, Howard comes through unlike any other, especially when you factor in his home runs, which he hits with a higher percentage of men on base than just about anyone else in the league.

[king myno]

The truest thing you can say about this playoff hunt is that the Astros' three-game deficit looks a hell of a lot smaller than ours.

[Wally Ritchie]

What was I thinking - of course leading MLB in RBI's just means good things about the people in front of you. So you must believe then, that if you switched Ryan Howard and Pat Burrell, Burrell would be leading MLB with 129 RBI's right now. Or better yet, just put Feliz 4th. Then, he could get 129 RBI's and the Phils could save Howard's power for the 7/8 hole. I can't believe they haven't considered this.

[Reed]

Prediction on the Stros - they lose 7 of their next 10 as Ike disrupts their mojo.

[GoPhilsGo]

I don't see how you can ignore run production, ergo, you can not ignore RBI. It may not tell the whole story, but for a power hitter in the cleanup spot, it tells quite a bit. We would all like to see Ryno's average up, but his run production can not be dismissed.

[diehard]

While Howard has been the best RBI producer this year, the only problem I have about overlooking his low AVG and low OBP is that it has kept down Burrell's RBIs. When Burrell was red hot, he was mainly hitting solo homeruns because Howard was an automatic out. If Howard hit more singles or had more walks instead of all the Ks then there would've been more oppurtunity for Burrell to drive in runs.

[Vincent]

Great win last night, but I still am a bit tempered on being giddy. Moyer & Howard came through. The big fear are those 4 games in the loss column for the division (without having any head to head matchups), but am feeling a lot better about the WC since teams do run hot & cold and the Brewers are ICE cold and the Astros are due to come down to earth.

[mike cunningham]

Hank Aaron, Babe Ruth, Cap Anson, Barry Bonds, Lou Gehrig, Stan Musial, Ty Cobb, Jimmie Foxx, Eddie Murray, Willie Mays.

Boy I'm so glad I can finally ignore the careers of those 10 guys. RBI are so overrated.

[CJ]

Ryan Howard since May 10th:
266/346/586, 37 HR, 112 RBI, 110 games

[thephaithful]

From Baseballmusings: Howard ranks 7th in the MLB in runners on with 444. He ranks 6th in the MLB in RBI%(RBI-HR / runners on) with arate of 19.5%

So yes he has a lot of men on, but the big man delivers. FYI: Hamilton leads in RBI% with 21.4% and Morneau leads in runners on with 496.

[Marc H]

Winning 2 of these next 3 is imperative. BFJ (Big Fat Joe) needs to justify ther faith that management has placed in him.

[Vincent]

Sorry, I just don't see Howard as MVP, not when he really tanked 1/2 the season. It's all well and good for us a Phillies Phans to think it but we have to be realistic 3-4 weeks does not an MVP season make (the same arguement that we made against Delgado)...

[thephaithful]

Pujols is MVP i think, regardless of what the Cards do. Unless Howard ends with insane numbers like 50HR 150RBI, then you might have to give it to him. But I'm pretty sure Howard will be IBB'd and pitched around EVERYTIME theres a RBI situation from now on until Burrell comes back.