Critiquing Pat Gillick has become a long, lost art

In his final season as Phillies GM, the 71-year-old has guaranteed either a quiet exit or an epic one.

There was a different dynamic inside our comments thread this season and I’ve just figured out what it was. The name "Pat Gillick" was mentioned 90 percent less times than in previous years. Instead of Gillick taking the daily bullet, usually in matters relating to the bullpen, it was Jimmy Rollins and a struggling offense that received most of the negative attention. Meanwhile, all anyone needs to know about the stability of the 'pen is that Clay Condrey stayed on the roster for all 162 games.

It’s proof that when it’s going well, fans pay no attention to the men behind the curtain. But perhaps even more than that, readers recognized the impact made by outside help like Brad Lidge, Jamie Moyer, J.C. Romero, Chad Durbin, Jayson Werth, Greg Dobbs, Scott Eyre and Joe Blanton, key contributors all acquired under Gillick’s watch.

Exactly how much credit Gillick deserves is a topic for another day. In the meantime, the Phils are four wins away from a World Series and eight away from winning it all, with Gillick just days away from riding off with a smile on his face.

Comments

[dwr]

The Moyer pickup is Gillick's best move--after the non-waiver trade deadline, after he gave away Abreu and admitted to trying to dismantle the team, he goes out and gets the most stabilizing force in the Phillies' rotation since Schilling. And then he got him to resign with the team after that season.

[BENTZ]

History will tell us that Pat Gillick will go down as one of baseball's top GMs of all-time. Though he has swung and missed in a number of high-profile moves (Garcia trade, Eaton signing, not getting enough for Abreu, etc.), Gillick's under the radar moves (Dobbs, Moyer, Werth, having faith in Victorino) along with a winning trade in Lidge have put the Phils where they are. The Phils increased their win total by 3 from 2006 to 2007 and by 4 from 2007 to 2008 (though you do have to account for a 3 game drop from 2005 to 2006).

I didn't realize he was in Toronto so long. He took over a 54 win 1977 Blue Jay team and had them with a winning record by 1983 and in the playoffs in 1985. The 1987 Jays won 96 games and missed the playoffs. They won the division in 1989 and 1991 before finally breaking through and winning the Series in 1992 and 1993. He took Baltimore to the playoffs in his first two years (of three). The Mariners made the playoffs in two of his four years and won 93 games in both of the non-playoff years there. The Phils made the playoffs in two of his three years here after not making it for 14 years.

Toronto - Average wins/season - 84 (non-strike years)
Baltimore - Average wins/season - 88
Seattle - Average wins/season - 98
Philadelphia - Average wins/season - 89

Gillick's resume: 11 playoff appearances, 10 LCS appearances, 2 WS appearances and 2 World titles (and hopefully one more of each of the last two)

Here however is a sobering reality. Gillick has not left places in the best of situations. Now the 1994 strike really hurt the Blue Jays (just not as publicized as what it did to the Expos) but they went from winnning the Series to only being 55-60 when the strike hit. The 1995 team went 56-88. The Orioles did have a losing season in his last year - the 1998 team went 79-83. They haven't had a winning season since he left. The Mariners won 93 games in 2003 and then only won 63 the next year in 2004. He'll leave the Phillies in by far the best position he has left any team, but the question remains (and I hate to raise it today), but does Gillick know when to get out? Or, more likely, is he just at the end of his rope and will enjoy going out (relatively) on top?

[doubleh]

BENTZ: I think that says more about who took over for Gillick when he left those organizations than anything...a fact that doesn't allieviate my apprehension at all, considering our frontrunners seem to be Amaro and Arbuckle.

[BENTZ]

HH - Yes, you are right. Gord Ash was pretty mediocre in Toronto and the Angelos regime in Baltimore has certainly been a disaster. Seattle has been a mess with anything Howard Lincoln was a part of and Bill Bavasi was a terrible GM. So yes, people replacing Gillick have been pretty awful. However, given the Phils' internal candidates and known ownership issues...

[BENTZ]

Not that the Phillies are going to win 62 games next year, we all know that is not the case. And there is no point in talking about next year when we are in the NLCS. But at the same time my post was going to speak only positives about Gillick's career while acknowledging a few shaky Phillies-related moves. But the numbers of the teams he left jumped out at me...

[Bubba]

Memo to Mr. Gillick-
Re- sign Moyer and Burrell before you check out.
Fans would appreciate that more than free rally towels.

[Lake Fred]

Suggestion to Management: Conduct a real GM search and select the best available individual from either outside or inside the organization. Don't just hand the job to Junior.

[The Doctor]

With Gillick moving on, it will clearly come down to our 2 in house guys. I wonder if one gets the job, does the other stay as the de facto #2. Amaro & Arbuckle must secretly hate each other, since the other is clearly in the way of their career path and the bigger bucks. Something about Amaro bothers me. I think it has to do with how he got the Asst GM job while he was winding down his playing career, and told people in the locker room before the season was even over. Very unprofessional, but that's mostly Ed Wade and David Montgomery's fault. Personally, I'd rather them grab Hunsicker somehow, but doubt TB lets him go. But this is a topic for another day.

I love how the national media is on the Dodgers so hard to win this series. The Phils really don't get much respect.

[PHIinBK]

We all know Gillick did well moving Thome, was handcuffed moving Abreu, screwed the pooch with Garcia, and killed it getting Lidge. We'll also applaud him for finding Werth, Dobbs, Durbin, and Romero.

But one thing I curious to determine is how the farm system has been stocked during Pat's tenure?

We may think Wade is a clown but isn't he responsible for cultivating the nucleus of our playoff team?

[RSB]

I don't think Gillick can be blamed for not restocking the farm through trades. Any trades he was able to make had to be for major league talent, since (paradoxically enough) there was no help coming from within to fulfill the needs of the major league roster. The nucleus may have developed under Wade's watch, but Wade did nothing to improve the organization's depth during his reign - subsequently left Gillick with precious few options during his.

[RSB]

I'm excluding the Abreu trade from that statement, by the way, because that was basically a sale disguised as a trade.

[kdon]

"Gillick's under the radar moves (Dobbs, Moyer, Werth, having faith in Victorino) along with a winning trade in Lidge have put the Phils where they are."

Well, not quite. Those moves, plus the far more important fact of having Utley/Rollins/Burrell/Howard/Hamels/Myers/Victorino already on the roster, have "put the Phils where they are."

Gillick pulled of a beauty with the Lidge trade, and Werth, Dobbs, and Moyer have all done their best work this year, so there is no questioning that he has helped the team.

But, given the talent on hand when he arrived, it would have been an utter failure had the team had not made it this far in three years.

[Lake Fred]

RSB, Gillick put Abreu on the Discount Rack to facilitate a quick sale.

[TC]

I just want to reiterate what someone just mentioned... Most of our nucleus on this team was cultivated under Wade. I can't believe I'm giving Ed Wade any credit. But seriously, not long ago people were blasting Gillick because he grabbed Joe Blanton this year instead of a "stud". I honestly don't know what Gillick's legacy will be. Of course people will remember him in a bright, positive light because the team succeeded under his term. However, don't forget that he didn't consider the Phils to be a playoff team in '07 (or was it '06?). Ans as previously mentioned, Wade is responsible for Howard, Utley, Rollins, Hamels, and Burrell among others.

[MattW]

Has anyone seen this yet? Utley and Strahan at Franklin Field hocking Vaseline. Weird.
http://www.strongerskin.com/strongerskin/

[clout]

After the season, I'll post a list of every trade Gillick made with the Phillies. His track record, to be fair, was terrible. On the other hand, I'll also post his waiver moves, minor league draftees and free agent signings. His record there is quite good.

But kdon has the bottom line exactly right: To have done less with his inherited core group, none of whom he acquired, would have to be considered an abject failure.

[MG]

On the secondary moves (e.g., Werth, Dobbs, Moyer, Feliz), I would largely say that Gillick has come up on the positive ledger during his tenure.

However, on his more primary moves, I will say he has been found wanting. Lidge trade was great this year but let's see how that extension turns out. The Garcia and Abreu trades were horrible (Phils didn't get a single useful player for both Abreu and Lidle) while the signings Gordon and Eaton were largely duds too.

Overall, the only "big move" that I would give Gillick a thumbs up for so far was the Lidge trade but let's see how that extension turns out. Thome trade was mixed (because they only had Rownad for 2 years and had to pay a boatload of cash to the ChiSox).

The Garcia and Abreu trades were horrible (Phils didn't get a single useful player for both Abreu and Lidle) while the signings Gordon (slight dud) and Eaton (major dud) were duds too.

Basically, I would say that Gillick made some really good moves with the roster this year (Lidge, Durbin, Seanez, Romero, Eyre, Blanton) to give the Phils the best pitching staff they have arguably had since the '93 team. That is why they made the playoffs and are poised to return to the World Series since '93.

Let's also not forget that the pitching staff was also 100% healthy all year. Almost no starters missed time due to injury and the bullpen was largely injury free too. That was a huge factor in this team's pitching putting up such decent numbers since they have almost no pitching depth at AA or AAA.

[TS]

Arbuckle is responsible for those players not Wade. I know it was under his watch but he didn't draft them, believe me. Gillick has been ok.

[bay_area_phan]

Gillick clearly took over a good situation. That's the whole reason he took the Phillies' job in the first place. At 70 years old, he wanted a situation where he could win and win quickly.

I agree with clout and kdon that, if he hadn't gotten us over the playoff hump, Gillick's regime would be a failure, in the same way that Ed Wade's regime is considered a dismal failure -- even though he inherited a 98-loss team and turned them into perennial playoff contenders. If not getting the team into the playoffs is a failure, I suppose it follows that Gillick can't really be called a success for merely getting us over that playoff hump. On the other hand, the Phillies have now done more than merely getting over the hump. We've won back-to-back division titles, plus a playoff series. If the book closes on the Pat Gillick era after the Dodgers series, then history will judge his tenure as a successful but, ultimately, disappointing one. On the other hand, if the Phillies win the NLCS or, better yet, the World Series, then he'll definitely deserve an A for his 3-year tenure.

Even if they win it all, I still say that Gillick will only go down as the 2nd best GM in team history. It's one thing to inherit a playoff-ready team and put them over the top. It's quite another to build a team from the bottom up, and end up winning a World Series, 2 league championships, and 5 division titles. That's what Paul Owens did in the 70s and 80s.

[J.R. King]

Gillick or Wade? Who cares?

If Utley and Howard hit and Hamels and Myers pitch, the Phils can go to the World Series.

Lets focus on Thursday's game and leave discussion of Gillick's legacy for the off-season.

[bay_area_phan]

J.R.: I think we've pretty much beaten Thursday's game into the ground. On yet another off day, Gillick's legacy seems like as good a topic as any.

[Tray]

So Richard Justice on PTI is saying that LA will win because the baseball gods are mad at someone for firing someone else (I wasn't paying great attention), and they've got this real special aura (later he called it "a Manny thing") around them. I think baseball writers mean this stuff seriously.

[PHIinBK]

I'm curious about our farm system because I've gotten used to winning baseball for the last five seasons and I'd like it to keep going. Most of our players aren't kids anymore, being closer to 30 than 20, so we'll need a new crop of players to continue the success. We obviously have nothing ready now because the barren farm system is why we have Blanton instead of Sabathia (whether thats good or bad is another debate).

I agree that Gillick has made his bones with his "B" moves (Moyer, Conine, T. Iguchi, Eyre etc.) rather then his blockbusters (Abreu, Garcia, Blanton). Does picking players off the scrap heap mean he's lucky or good? I dunno...

Nontheless J.R.'s right - its time to focus on kicking the crap out of the Dodgers!

[doubleh]

Tray: I think they are just all paid by the syllable, so the more BS they write, the more they get paid. It's a long layoff between series and now they are just making stuff up to fill space.

I also tend to think everyone's picking the Dodgers because they have so much egg on their face after the Cubs are gonna win the WS fiasco.

[clout]

By the way, speaking of Bobby Abreu he finished with 100 runs and 100 RBI again, 20 HRs, 22 steals, .843 OPS. His 122 OPS+ was 1 point less than Ryan Howard and Pat Burrell.

Kinda makes you wonder how good the Phils would be if they had gotten even 20% of Abreu's value in return. One of the worst trades in baseball history.

[kdon]

"Nontheless J.R.'s right - its time to focus on kicking the crap out of the Dodgers!"

Seriously? Nothing could be more boring than a days worth of posts like that.

If me, MG, clout, and bap want to talk about Gillick, we will, and you'll just have to either read them or go wave your pom-poms outside.

[PhilliesPhan]

Here is every move Pat Gillick has ever made as GM of the Phillies. Thanks to clout for the idea!
A. To start, the trades. every single one.

1. 11/25/2005 - Jim Thome and cash for Aaron Rowand, Daniel Haigwood and a PTBNL: Gio Gonzalez (traded with White Sox)
2. 12/8/2005 - Cash for Chris Booker (traded with Tigers)
3. 12/12/2005 Vincente Padilla for PTBNL: Ricardo Rodriguez (traded with Rangers)
4. 1/27/2006 - Jason Michaels forArthur Rhodes (traded with Indians)
5. 3/28/2006 - acquired Aquilino Lopez for Matt Thayer and Trey Johnston (traded with Padres)
6. 3/31/2006 - Cash for Jim Crowell (traded with Nationals)
7. 4/1/2006 - Robinson Tejeda and Jake Blalock for David Dellucci (traded with Rangers)
8. 6/29/2006 - Daniel Haigwood for Fabio Castro (traded with Rangers)
9. 7/26/2006 - acquired Sal Fasano for Hector Made (traded with Yankees)
10. 7/28/2006 - traded David Bell for Wilfrido Laureano (traded with Brewers)
11. 7/30/2006 - traded Bobby Abreu and Cory Lidle for C.J. Henry, Matt Smith, Jesus Sanchez and Carlos Monastrios (traded with Yankees)
12. 7/31/2006 - traded Rheal Cormier for Justin Germano (traded with Reds)
13. 8/7/2006 - traded Ryan Franklin and cash for PTBNL: Zac Scott (traded with Reds)
14. 8/19/2006 - traded Andy Baldwin and Andrew Barb for Jamie Moyer (traded with Mariners)
15. 8/22/2006 - Cash for Jose Hernandez (traded with Pirates)
16. 8/27/2006 - traded PTBNL: Angel Chavez for Jeff Conine (traded with Orioles)
17. 9/1/2006 - traded cash for Randall Simon (Traded with Rangers)
18. 12/6/2006 - traded Gavin Floyd and Gio Gonzalez for Freddy Garcia (traded with White Sox)
19. 12/21/2006 - traded Jeff Conine for Javon Moran and Brad Key (traded with Reds)
20. 4/5/2007 - traded cash for Franssisco Rosario (traded with Blue Jays)
21. 4/13/2007 - traded Brent Abernathy for PTBNL (traded with Nationals)
22. 6/27/2007 - traded Michael Dubee for Tadahito Iguchi (traded with White Sox)
23. 7/30/2007 - traded Matt Maloney for Kyle Lohse (traded with Reds)
24. 7/31/2007 - traded Jesus Merchan for Julio Mateo (traded with Mariners)
25. 8/1/2007 - traded PTBNL for Travis Dawkins (traded with Mariners)
26. 8/9/2007 - traded Cash for Russell Branyan (traded with Indians)
27. 11/7/2007 - traded Michael Bourn, Geoff Geary and Mike Costanzo for Brad Lidge and Eric Bruntlett (STOLE FROM WADE WITH ASTROS)
28. 11/20/2007 - Cash for Chris Snelling (traded with Rays)
29. 1/2/2008 - traded Chris Roberson for Cash (traded with Orioles)
30. 7/7/08 - acquired Joe Blanton for Josh Outman, Adrian Cardenas, and Matt Spencer (traded with Athletics)
31. 8/7/08 - acquired Scott Eyre for Brian Schlitter (traded with Cubs)
32. 8/30/08 - acquired Matt Stairs for PTBNL: Franssisco Rosairo

B. Notable Signings and Waiver Wire Pickups
1. Dec. 3, 2005: Signed pitcher Tom Gordon, formerly of the Yankees, to a three-year contract.

2. Nov. 18, 2006: Signed IF Wes Helms, formerly of the Marlins, to a two-year contract.

3. Nov. 30, 2006: Agreed to terms with Adam Eaton.

4. Dec. 19, 2006: Signed Jayson Werth to a one-year contract.

5. Jan. 14, 2006: Antonio Alfonseca signed as free agent.

6. Jan. 16, 2007: Greg Dobbs acquired off waivers.

7. Jan. 21, 2007: Chase Utley signs seven-year contract extension.

8. Feb. 1, 2007: Brett Myers signs three-year extension.

9. April 13, 2007: Claimed pitcher J.D. Durbin off waivers from Red Sox.

10. June 13, 2007: Purchased contract of pitcher Kyle Kendrick from Reading.

11. June 23, 2007: Signed J.C. Romero, formerly of the Boston Red Sox.

12. Feb. 1, 2008: Signed 3B Pedro Feliz to a two-year contract with a club option for 2010.

13. Feb. 14, 2008: Agreed to terms with Kris Benson on a minor league contract.

14. April 2, 2008: Agreed to terms with Rudy Seanez on a one-year contract.

15. July 7, 2008: Signed pitcher Brad Lidge to a three-year contract.

Thanks again to clout for the idea. FEEL FREE TO COMMENT AND ENJOY!

[kdon]

Abreu is a FA.

[MG]

One last point on Gillick:

Agreed this postseason will largely influence how Gillick's tenure is remembered by the Philly fans but oddly enough the more successful the Phils are, the less likely I think are the odds that Gillick returns next year.

Reason I think that - the Phils are going to face a really tough offseason this year with some difficult questions (resign Burrell? resign Moyer? Howare and Hamels arbitration) while likely not having a ton of money available because of an unlikeliness of Monty and Co. to increase payroll in any kind of meaningful way and the largely $25M in dead money tied up in the trio of largely unproductive players (Feliz, Jenkins, and Eaton).

Gillick has had the uncanny knack for knowing when a situation is about to turn south and getting out right before the sh!t hits the fan (and he played a part in every place he was at especially in Baltimore and Seattle by making some suspect moves/signings).

If I had to sum up Gillick - a quality GM who knows when to exactly get out while he is on top.

[PhilliesPhan]

In my opinion, despite some poor moves, I would definitely consider Gillick's tenure a success.

[PHIinBK]

I started out talking about Gillick I'll keep talking about him if thats the consensus. I hate rah rah talk myself, I just thought that was the PC thing to say.

[Tray]

But doubleh, they could bring more of a SABR perspective to their work and they'd still have just as many syllables.

[Lake Fred]

If the credit for the core belongs to Arbuckle instead of Wade, then let's hope Arbuckle is the new GM after Gillick is gone, if it's going to be going to an inhouse candidate.

I think some credit has to go to coaching. I think Lopes has been worth his weight in gold for coaching running the basepaths from first. I'm beginning to believe that Dubee knows what he's doing as a pitching coach.

I'm opinion neutral on Cholly. I think he's smarter than his dumb caricature would suggest. I think he does a lot protecting everyone else from a lot of crap by accepting it to himself. His hitting acumen and his experience from Japan has made him an asset. As Randy Jackson would say, "He's okay, just okay, but I was expecting more."

[kdon]

Sorry PhilinBK, didn't mean to indicate you had to post one way or the other.

Cheer away all you want. I'm all in favor of cheering AND analysis.

MG is definitely right about getting out at the right time. On the one hand, you can't possibly view Gillick's entire oeuvre with the Phils as positive, but the team is in the NLCS, and getting good contributions from players he brought in.

My only point was that if he had done a *great* job, this would be a 100 win team.

[PhilliesPhan]

Well you guys can use that awesome list I put together to discuss.

[RSB]

Gillick's moves were largely hit-or-miss. For every Greg Dobbs, there was a Wes Helms; for every Brad Lidge steal, there was a Freddy Garcia fiasco. Like most managers, Gillick was a solid fill-in, but nothing spectacular, and his tenure won't have changed the direction of this team, for better or for worse. If he had more than a set limit of three years or more leverage with personnel to work with, it might be a different story.

[doubleh]

Tray: Yes, but Tray, they aren't really that smart. Your average Beerleaguer poster could probably write better articles that contain factual based arguments (myself not included, b/c I am not a stat person--although I sure as hell wouldn't use aura as a reason why the Dodgers will win) instead of the tarot card reading you heard that Justice guy do.

[Lake Fred]

Oh, doubleh, it's Tarot cards that have decided the Dodgers will win? That must make it so. Let's go home.

[Tray]

Yeah, that was my point - why aren't baseball writers smart? (Jason excepted.)

[doubleh]

Lake Fred: I don't know--I just used that analogy because Tray said the guy he heard on the radio said the Dodgers were going to win because of the baseball gods and Manny's aura. Sounds like kooky new age religion crap to me...

No offense intended to anyone who practices kooky new age religion, of course.

[kdon]

"Well you guys can use that awesome list I put together to discuss."

Well, that might be a topic for the offseason!

A great list though. I've seen clout's general appraisals of those moves the past few years, and tend to agree with most of it.

A cliche in politics is that you are judged on what you do on the big things, and until the Lidge deal, every *big* deal was either bad (Eaton, Gordon, Garcia, Padilla, Abreu) or a wash (Thome). I don't really see how anyone can argue against that.

[Sophist]

Looks like the Dodgers' official blog has posted their Game 1 lineup. Not sure how reliable this is:

S-Furcal, SS
L-Ethier, RF
R-Ramirez, LF
R-Martin, C
L-Loney, 1B
R-Kemp, CF
R-Blake, 3B
L-DeWitt, 2B
R-Lowe, P

The entry says that the Dodgers will likely revert to their LDS lineup (reflected above) for Game Two against the righty Myers.

[NEPP]

Everyone would probably agree that Billy Beane is an excellent GM and he's made some horrible trades as well. All GMs make bad trades, some make worse trades than others. You could critique alot of GMs and say they are atrocious. How good would people consider Epstein and Cashman if they didn't have Fort Knox to plaster over mistakes they made?

[Brian G]

Gillick's bad contracts have been counterbalanced by the Werth and Moyer moves. Two borderline all star contributors this year for relative peanuts.

As for this offseason, we have approximately $100 mil (accounting for arb raises) already committed for next year. I say we try and sign Moyer and Burrell for 1-2 years at a combined $20mil per(7.5 and 12.5?) and basically call it a day. The FO has to be willing to have a short term payroll raise after the incredible turnout this year and the boost of a playoff run. I'd have no problem going into next year with this same group, but with Marson and probably Happ playing more prominent roles.

[WollyFromPhilly]

Re: Bobby Abreu
According to Bill James Online, Bobby Abreu's defense rates poorly; he cost the Yankees -24 bases (16 plays) compared to the average right fielder this year. Cleveland's Franklin Gutierrez led right fielders by saving +29 bases above average.

[WillyFromPhilly]

Why is Billy Beane still considered a good GM? He hasn't made the playoffs in years and, noe recognized among many people, is on his 2nd rebuilding process in 4 years. The first one failed. With the AL East getting stronger annually, it probably will be a long, long time before Beane win his division, the only way his A's can get in the post-season.

[WillyFromPhilly]

Epstein rebuilt a farm system in 3 years. It took Arbuckle 14 years for his team to play post-season ball. Everytime I see that internet ad with the turtle Bill Slowski, I think of Arbuckle.

[Verdeforce]

The Phillies were lucky to fire Wade at the right time, and convince the greatest GM of the era to put Philly over the top. Pat Gillick is the only GM to bring four separate franchises to the LCS and I don't think that record will be broken in our lifetime. His accomplishment is even more impressive since none of them were the traditional top teams in the league. The Blue Jays, Orioles, Mariners, and Phillies had all struggled for long periods before his arrival. Here's hoping he stays on for another season....

[JB]

Ed Wade's best trade for the Phillies was when he was GM for the Astros.

Thanks Ed!