Experts look into crystal ball and see LA in seven

ESPN’s panel of columnists and analysts, including Jayson Stark, Tim Kurkjian, Rob Neyer, Steve Phillips and Jim Caple, are near unanimous in picking the Dodgers to defeat the Phillies in the NLCS. Only Neyer takes the Phillies in seven. Most seem to envision a well-pitched series that could go the distance, with the Dodgers pitching staff having the upper hand over a Phillies offense too dependent on the long ball.

Comments

[Dan P.]

Predicting it to go seven is pretty much their way of saying it's a toss up but since they have to pick a team, they'll go with the Dodgers because of the Chicago smackdown.

If it goes seven, it essentially becomes a one-game series with that game being played in front of a Phillies home crowd. I'd welcome that and I have a feeling we'll know a lot by the 3rd inning of game 1 about how this series is going to go.

[The Gut]

The experts underestimate me.

[doubleh]

I think the media is also picking the Dodgers because their dream matchup as writers is LA/Boston. Two big media markets, two coasts, built-in storylines (Manny vs. former team that got sick of him), and lots of money.

Disposing of the Cubs in 3 probably has something to do with it, but the Cubs played more poorly than the Brewers, if you ask me (and look at the team ERA). I knew the Dodgers were going to beat Chicago; I just didn't see the sweep happening.

[J. Weitzel]

Perhaps baseball and the networks want LA/BOS, but for writers, analysts and crews, they'd rather have BOS/PHI because of the travel.

[MG]

JW - Largely agree. I am still amazed at how below the radar the Phils are. Even the Rays (with almost no real fan base), are getting much attention/media focus as the "upstarts" than the Phils.

[MG]

Dodgers are the "trendy" pick just because they swept the Cubs and closed strong. They are still an incredibly streaky team but I still say the "wildcard" for the Dodgers is Furcal (they desperately missed him out of the leadoff spot all year) and that if this comes down to a battle of bullpens, I actually like the Dodgers' pen a bit more with the return of Saito.

[J. Weitzel]

The Dodgers don't walk anybody and they're groundball types. That could be one of the big differences since the Phils struggle to put the ball in play.

[reading phan]

Joe Morgan picks the Phils... so you got that goin for you.......

[ozark]

The experts picked the Phils in 4 over the Brewers. Hmmm.

[Stretch]

I also feel that Utley and Howard's poor performance in the DS has changed expectations. The national media has been watching the Dodgers destroy their darlings, the Cubs, while our 2 biggest hitters (plus PtB for 3 games)were really struggling. If our guys can feast on LA's right handed rotation, the Phils will win hands down even if our pitching isn't as stellar, but considering that they were nowhere to be found against Suppan, I'm a little woried.

On the plus side, Victorino is a gamer and perhaps Burrell is starting one of his ridiculous hitting streaks at just the right time.

[doubleh]

You have to like the Dodgers BP over the Phils--have you seen the numbers Manny has on anyone not named Madson or Lidge? Eegads.

[johnt]

I agree that the Dodgers may have the upper hand from a statistical perspective. However the beauty of this sport is that it there are too many variables to predict it accurately. The Phils just might do this. If any of you remember the Phils were a popular team in 93 but they too were under the radar. That year the Giants and Braves made all the headlines.. they were in the same division and I think they both won over 100 games. Sometimes the little things that you can't measure... Victorino's energy etc make the difference.

[BobbyD]

If the Phillies played the Dodgers in the first round, would we have been worried? No. It's not an easy series, but the Phillies are better. Plain and simple. Phillies in 6. People are taking too much out of the Cubs sweep. Game one Dempster walked 7 guys. Game 2 the Cubs committed 4 errors. Game 3 in L.A. was close.

[dwr]

All but one of those same "experts" on ESPN picked the Cubs to win the division series.

[J.R. King]

There are too many unanswered questions which prevent anyone from accurately predicting this series:

- Will Cole continue to dominate?
- Will the Dodgers punish Myers for his mistakes?
- Can Blanton give another performance like he did against the Brewers?
- Will Moyer get squeezed?
- Can Utley come out of his slump?
- Will Burrell get another mistake to hit?
- Will Werth?
- Are they gonna pitch around Howard? Can he take a low and outside curveball the other way?
- Will Madson finally let us down?
- Will Lidge?

Other than Ramirez, the Dodgers are just as inconsistent as the Phils. Either team could get swept.

[BobbyD]

And another thing. I love how the 84 win team from the worst division in baseball is all of the sudden the big favorite over the 90 win Phils who had to fight off the Mets and Marlins. I understand The Dodgers record was better in the 2nd half. But they also got killed by the Phils and Nationals on their east coast swing WITH Manny. And the Dodgers ARE NOT the favorite in Vegas right now.

[NCPhilly]

Sorry, all you who are sick of Caliendo, but...
http://news.bostonherald.com/track/inside_track/view.bg?articleid=1123924&format=text

[thephaithful]

Joe Torre already made the ever so tirseome excuse and we havent even played yet!: "In that ballpark, even if you pitch well, you might not know it" Poor CBP.

[BobbyD]

I guess Torre hasn't taken a look at the Phils pitching stats at home.

[DPatrone]

One other thing. The Cubs and Angels just proved that the regular season doesn't mean much. Way back in '83 (not '93), I believe the Dodgers beat the Phils 11 out of 12 in the regular season, yet the Phils beat 'em in the NLCS.

Yes, the Phils can go the the Series. If they play like they're capable of, they will. I said all year I thought the Phils were the best team in the NL, but they drive us crazy with their inconsistancy.

What did they accomplish? Won 92 games and the East again (Sorry Muts fans). Then they took care of the Brewers (in nerve-wreaking fashion, but they still got it done). They won more games than LA and swept them here. Should have won 2 of 4 there. They can play with LA. And they can beat them. So much for the so-called "experts". They've had what I consider to be a successful season and they're not done yet. They can beat Tampa too. Boston however, I'm not so sure. GO PHILS!

[ACI]

For what its worth, coolstandings has run the series scenario and they have the Phils favored 55-45. Boston is favored over the Rays 51-49

[thephaithful]

Who starts game 4 for the Dodgers - Maddux or Kershaw? I dont think Blanton is untouchable all of a sudden, but I'd put down Game 4 as a win for the Phils.

[Andy]

I'm sure that what Torre meant was that his team can pitch a really good game at CBP and you'll never know because the Phils will pitch a better one.

I'm sure that's what he meant.

Really.

[kdon]

Picking the Dodgers is legit. It's a tossup, not some media bias or, god forbid, a lack of respect for the Phillies.

I'm surprised they would say Dodgers in 7 though, since I have to think the Phils would have the advantage with Moyer at home in a decisive game. I think if the Dodgers win, it will be in 5 or 6, the latter in a Myers meltdown.

[Andy]

I'm still sticking for Tampa Bay to take out Boston, too. Enough of the stupid "Red Sox nation" stuff. If the Phillies win we should begin saying "Phillies World," or "Phillies Alternate Universe." PAU!!

[BobbyD]

Torre also probably forgets that his team scored 5 runs in 4 games at CBP.

[Andy]

I don't think they've thought out who will win which match-up. I think they just figure it'll be close so that means seven games.

On an historic note - the Sox beat the Phils and then won the series again in 1916, the last (only?) time they won two WS in a row. It would be kind of sweet to get revenge for 1915 by preventing them from going back to back.

Still, I want the kids for Tampa to clean their clock.

[Andy]

"from Tampa" of course.

[vicki]

It's really fun to see what the ESPN experts predicted at the beginning of the season: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/preview08/news/story?page=08expertpicks

[J. Weitzel]

Kruk picked Dodgers in 7. The other guy on there right now went Dodgers in 6.

[BobbyD]

I don't want Tampa. That city has already killed us enough. Bucs over Eagles in '03 NFC championship game. Lightning over Flyers in '04 Eastern Converence Finals. Both went on to win it all. No more Tampa please.

[NEPP]

You're all ignoring the fact that they move the fences in 50 ft when the Phillies are up to bat...

[NEPP]

Yeah, that 1915 WS loss has been bugging me for a while...we need to get some revenge!!!!

[Steve Jeltz]

Saying it will go 7 is really the "experts" saying it could go either way, which I agree with. I'd be concerned if people were predicting Dodgers in 4 or 5.

[Jack]

I think it's funny when a lot of "experts" say that our best chance is that we have left-handed power to beat the Dodgers' righties. In fact, we have been a better offensive team against LEFTIES, despite Howard's massive platoon splits. Almost every single player in our lineup, with the exception of Howard, and Utley and Rollins to a very small extent, is significantly better against left-handed pitching. I know he's talented, but I think I'd rather face Kershaw than Maddux in Game 4 for this reason.

[clout]

Bobby D: Exactly same things were true of the Rockies last season. Your point?

[MG]

Usually I think Cholly is tactically outmatched by the opposing manager but Torre is overrated.

I say a push but you do have to wonder if the pitching decisions won't be second-guessed at least several times this series by both sides because neither manager makes the most sound decisions regarding his bullpen utilization.

[phlipper]

By the way, I'd just like to give full credit to those who called me an "idiot" because I said that I'd rather have Manny than Burrell for the last half of the season.

That's not a knock on Burrell. He did enough in the early part of this season to have a second half free of phlipper-bashing.

But what, all Manny's done with LA is something like 53 RBI in 53 games. Who would want that on their team? The guy is clearly washed up.

[clout]

Frankly, I think a solid case, measuring player vs. player, can be made that the Phillies are the better team. But that is irrelevant. In post-season, the hotter team usually beats the better team.

[MG]

"Experts" picks for the most part are no better informed than if you polled enough general public who are knowledgeable baseball fans.

[BobbyD]

Clout: my point is the point that I made.

[Tony D]

Larry Bowa was on Jody Mac this afternoon and I believe he said they were going with Lowe on 3 days rest for Game 4.

[Brian G]

Lowe will probably pitch games 1, 4(on 3 days rest) and 7 (if necessary, on full rest). The Dodgers most likely won't need a 4th starter, and will just go Lowe/Billingsley/Kuroda.
Anyone in favor of the Phillies going this route with Hamels? I'm against it, based on the "he's never done 3 days rest before, now's not the time to start" argument, and that Cole is kind of a headcase about his body and routine.

[Lake Fred]

I know that I have a little homerism in me, but I just can't see all this Dodgers hoopla. For most of this season, they hovered around or under .500. Just for grins, I checked their Sept. schedule. The only team they played with a winning record was the D-Backs at home for three games, all won by L.A. They had 9 games with the Padres, 3 with Colorado, 4 with Pittsburgh and 6 with San Diego. They ended up with an 18-9 Sept. record.

They played a "100 year cursed" Cubs team, now they play a loose hungry Phillies team. I think the experts will be perplexed by the Dodgers' collapse in this NLCS, just like they were for the Cubs in the NLDS. I don't think this NLCS will go 7 games. The Phils will win their 4th game off the Dodgers before then.

[Jim]

Take DWR's advice and look at the pre-season predictions on ESPN.com.

[Tray]

I think the analysts are probably making the right call. I'd give us a 40% chance of winning the series, maybe a little more.

[RSB]

Derek Lowe's a good pitcher, but even considering his success in the past against the Phillies, he's not the kind of guy who's going to shut them down over 2 or 3 starts. I agree with Manuel: the Phillies are going to put some runs on the board in this series. Only thing is, I think the Dodgers will, too.

[BARRY SNYDER]

I think the Phillies are gone to WIN in 4 games. Go into the NLCS and take care of business. Like I heard of Comcastsportsnet Mitch Williams said if they don't let Ramereiz hurt them and likewise with Howard.

[clout]

It's already been reported that Torre said Maddux would be a middle reliever. Kershaw will start if they decide to use 4 starters.

[Moses Malone]

FO' FO' FO' !!!!!!!!!

[Lake Fred]

This weekend I was driving down the road and I saw a license plate with the letters "RSB" and I immediately thought of Beerleaguer!

[baxter]

Phils in 5

[Sam]

"The experts picked phillies in 4"

Yeah, and they universally expected the phillies loss to be to CC.

[Tony D]

First AB against Manny with none on I'd buzz his tower. Get in his head a little bit. The guy is a lunatic it might work. Then again he might start to play pepper with the Liberty Bell as well.

[doubleh]

Tony: I don't think Manny is affected by things like that. I do think it would motivate him more, because he's nuts.

I don't think we'll know which team is hotter until they start playing one another. Both the Cubs are Brewers played some pretty lousy baseball, so it's hard to tell at this point.

I'm just hoping the Phils are this year's Rockies and not the Dodgers. But then again, all it takes is one boneheaded move or managing decision to turn the tides...

[Squonk64]

The Vegas oddsmakers opened the betting on the NLCS at Phillies 140 to make 100, and the Dodgers 100 to make 120. That means the Phillies are the favorites with the Casinos.

Anybody who really thinks the Dodgers are the favorites needs to call their bookie.

[TK]

So most are picking the Dodgers to win a game 7 in Philly? That would be a dark Saturday night in the Deleware Valley...which makes me think if it gets that far it's not gonna happen. Philadelphia is due!

[Tony D]

Anxious to see Vic and Werth this series. Vic was offered back to the Dodgers 3 times and they said "no thanks" and Werth never really was given a 2nd chance after his injury. I know they'll never admit it but those guys might have a little extra to play for.

[EastFallowfield]

Did any of the experts, when picking the Cubs, notice that the Cubs hit worse against LA than every other NL team?

And did they further notice that the Phils hit them pretty darn well?

[Jim]

Just want to clarify what odds mean in Vegas. The odds in Vegas don't have anything to do with the likelihood of a team to win, expert picks or anything like that. Rather, they are set to balance the betting. If odds move, it's not that "Vegas" has decided that one team now has an advantage. It's actually the betting (unbalanced) that shifted the line.

[MG]

Mostly a fluff article on Furcal but still something a bit different than one of the 700 "Manny" articles

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/playoffs2008/columns/story?columnist=neel_eric&id=3630320

Getting Furcal back is huge offensively because the Dodgers don't have much speed or someone to really hit out of the leadoff spot. Plus, it takes a complete stiff like Berroa out of the lineup.

If Dodgers didn't have Furcal back, I would like the Phils outright. Now, I agree with general concensus that it is about 50/50 for the Phils.

[Sophist]

I wouldn't get too focused on W/L record. We can post the Dodgers starting lineup from the summer to dispel any notions that this Dodgers team has been consistent all year in terms of personnel and batting order.

The teams are evenly matched. It's a question of who shows up for the Phils (or who doesn't.) I also don't know how predictable the pitching performances will be. Both teams have young guys, guys with some funny splits, etc.. They pitch in very different venues. What's more the Dodgers are all RHP for the first three games, while the Phils will be L-R-L, it seems.

Lowe doesn't scare me -- which is strange cos I'd love the Phils to sign him this offseason. He pitches much, much better at home. I just don't know how much I trust this Phils' offense as a whole. They are not a reliable bunch.

[doubleh]

Oooh, Manny's on the cover of this week's SI...;-)

I'm looking for any kind of angle I can find because this series makes me nervous.

[Sophist]

MG - Furcal also eliminates the possibility, if the addition of Manny didn't already, that Pierre will lead off. Everyone knows his liabilities. Furcal had a .439 OBP (and OPS over 1) ~35 games into this season before going to the DL. He had a .467 OBP in the NLDS.

[Sophist]

It should be noted that one of two ESPN "experts" that picked the Phils to win the East is a Philadelphia native and a big Phillies fan. Eric Karabell.

[The Theory]

The only thing worse than the ESPN experts picking the Dodgers would be if the ESPN experts picked the Phillies. Bad things happen when expectations from the national spotlight are thrust upon the Phils.

[Bubba]

Glad the "experts" picked the Phils to lose.
We are better suited to the underdog role and would rather be called lucky (ala Mets Trolls) after we win.more fun that way.

[MG]

Thing I am most worried for about is if Howard and Utley show up. Utley has been incredibly mortal since the ASB and Howard hasn't done much in either playoff series he has appeared so far.

If these two guys don't show, I think the Phils will lose the series regardless of how good their pitching is.

[Willard Preacher]

I've said it before and I'll say it again - Steve Phillips picked against us? Fantastic!!

[mike cunningham]

@MG -- that's correct, although, i think Howard will be minimized by walking. Why do I get the feeling that we will pitch to Manny and Howard will nary see a good pitch to hit even with the right handers going...

Utley and Howard could carry a series themselves... but I think in the end it needs to be balanced from the pitching and the hitting. The series goes 7. And I think the team with the homefield will win out.

Although that means absolutely winning the first 2 games at home. Fortunately the Phillies have a good away record, but I'd be concerned that you'd have to prevent a sweep with 3 games in LA... tough.

Although on the plus side... we shoudl get to see a lot of Alyssa Milano in the upcoming week.

[vegas]

Good, great, the experts should all be living here and making tons of dough in the sports books. They picked them good so far, the Cubs, the Angles nice try. Talk about a jinx, Phils will win then. The fact is the hottest team wins the series. The real "experts" have the Phillies a -140 series favorite.

[MG]

Mike - Agreed about Howard and Manny both seeing a lack of quality pitches in the series. Manny will take his share of BBs if you pitch around him. I just hope Howard does the same.

[MG]

Two questions for this series:

- Do you think Cholly insists on starting Feliz at 3B for "defense" even though Dobbs should clearly be starting against these the Dodgers' RHP starter? (My bet sadly is that Feliz starts both Game 1 and 2).

- Werth obviously is going to start in RF (and Burrell in LF) even though all RHP starters but I wonder if Stairs or even Jenkins gets a rare start if things don't go so well for the Phils' offensively the first two games. (My bet is again no unless the offense is really horrendous and that Werth or Burrell REALLY look terrible at the plate the 1st two games).

[Sophist]

MG: re Utley. Not sure what you mean. Here's Utley season breakdown.

preASB: .291/.372/.582-- 25 HR, 25 2B
postASB: .292/.390/.465 -- 8 HR, 16 2B

I think it's pretty clear what the difference is between Utley in each half. 49 singles in 94 games in the first half; 46 singles in 65 games in the second.

preASB: .52 singles/game, .62 BB/HBP/IBB per game
post ASB: .71 singles/game, .72 BB/HBP/IBB per game.

Utley's BABIP is up 40 points in the second half. Here's another way of capturing the difference. Utley's OPS were practically identical in August and May, however in August his SLG was .477 and in May it was .537.

I don't think we'd be saying he was mortal if not for his lack of High Leverage hitting (.215/.315/.402) (which is probably based on sample size) and his poor performance in the playoffs (.133/.235/.200) (which is probably based on sample size.)

[Bubba]

Could SI put the whole Dodgers team on the cover and add that jinx to the favorites burden for LA to take into this series.

Presenditial Debates on TV and no baseball, Aargh!!!!

[Sophist]

Here's another interesting line. Due to his lack of triples and homers in the second half, Utley relied almost entirely on his teammates to drive him in after ASB. He scored 17 more runs in the first half solely on HR (a HR every 3.6 games as opposed to a HR every 8.1 games.)

But in the second half Utley scored .69 runs/game and in the first half .72 runs/game.

There's a lot that goes into this figure (the emergence of Werth and Howard, for instance) but in some ways the lineup became more coherent in the second half.

Post ASB

Ruiz: .345 OBP
Rollins: .359 OBP (.411 in Sept.)
Utley: .390 OBP
Werth: .275/.370/.520
Howard: .276/.360/.593
Burrell: (let's not worry about him)
Vic: .311/.354/.498

I guess this is a fancy way of saying many of these guys just started playing better (with the exception of Burrell.) And I'm not saying Utley's OBP and SLG numbers from the second half and first half, respectively, are mutually exclusive, or that I'd prefer the second half Utley to the first. I do think the emergence of Werth and Howard mitigating Utley's loss of HR-power though, since he was less reliant only on his own power to get himself home.

[Durbinator]

Burrell is better against RH pitching than you would think. He is certainly better against it than Werth. I wouldn't mind seeing Werth replaced for Stairs (maybe Jenkins) for one of these games since there will be a lot of RH pitching. If the Dodgers pitch Lowe on 3 days rest we wouldn't see Kershaw, their only LH starting pitcher.

[Sophist]

Here are their 08 RHP splits:

Werth: .255/.360/.407
Burrell: .238/.351/.492
Stairs: .254/.349/.413 (not in CBP all year or East either FWIW)
Jenkins: .256/.313/.415

I'm not sure you should move Werth or Burrell. Especially if one of the alternatives is an OF of Burrell-Vic-Stairs.

[The Truth Injection]

Peter Gammons was on Christopher "Mad Dog" Russo's sports show on Sirius and he picked the Dodgers in 7. I think his analysis was spot on.

Both teams can hit the cover off the ball but the Phillies are the ones who show a bigger propensity to get cold.

The big key to Gammons though is Utley. He clearly is not healthy and his hip is bothering him. He said if Utley were healthy he'd lean towards the Phillies. With Utley hurt though that probably gives the Dodgers an ever so slight edge.

Personally, the Dodgers line-up worries me. If Furcal can get going there are completely dangerous throughout that line-up. Furcal, Kemp, Either, Manny, Martin, Blake, Loney- there are not a lot of outs there.

I think the Phillies pitching is better from top to bottom but if Myers gets himself too amped up (a common problem for him) I think the Dodgers have the edge.

Also, the Dodgers have a lot of momentum considering they beat 3 of the better pitchers in baseball this year in 3 straight games. The best one they totally jumped all over.

I just want to enjoy this and hope we get to the Series. However, this next set really worries me. No matter how it ends I'd be really shocked if it is less than 6 games.

[Z. McCarthy]

My question is this, I watch baseball tonight and ESPN everyday. This website is my homepage and when I read this headline today I couldn't help but think to myself "At who's discretion do these panel of men considered, "experts"? An expert would entail you are the best at what you do but the last time I checked, Steve Phillips, whom everyone leaves all of their trust with, was fired from his job, not much of an expert. Tim Kurkjian doesn't even look at the stats from his own website of ESPN.com when he opens his mouth, Joe Blanton wasn't an above average player before he came here, thought Kurkjian exclaimed how much of an above career he had in Oakland, though it was nothing more then probably average. These men are a joke with a combined Major League experience of Donovan McNabb.

[clout]

sophist: Lowe's numbers at CBP are pretty good.

[GM-Carson]

I understand why people are picking the Dodgers over the Phils, and that could obviously happen, but this Phils team could also step up and take care of business and kick those sonofabitchin' Dodgers in the teeth and take the series.

[Sophist]

clout - Yeah. I guess I'm just pointing out the conflicting figures. Lowe and his RHP counterparts have had more success and home and against RHB this year.

Lowe Away: .292/.334/.413 - 54 RA in 93.2 IP (17 GS)
Lowe CBP: .216/.256/.351 - 7 RA in 20 IP (3 GS)

Lowe vs LHB 2008: .251/.293/.342
Lowe vs LHB career: .274/.337/.403

Since coming to LA in 2005, Lowe's numbers against RHB have improved markedly (.790 OPS last year in BOS, between .600 and .668 in LA.) His OPS against LHB hasn't been consistent in LA, but is at an LA low this year. It was .814 in '05 and ~.720 in '06 and '07.

[clout]

Truth: Wow, I usually agree with your stuff but in that post I disagree with a few of your points.

"Both teams can hit the cover off the ball but the Phillies are the ones who show a bigger propensity to get cold."

The Phils SLG was .438, the Dodgers .399. That's a sizeable gap when it comes to "hitting the cover off the ball." As for propensity to get cold, I'd say LA's 11-16 in June was cold, not to mention 13-16 in August.

"If Furcal can get going there are completely dangerous throughout that line-up. Furcal, Kemp, Either, Manny, Martin, Blake, Loney- there are not a lot of outs there."

You're joking right? Manny and Kemp are the only serious power threats there. The Phillies lineup is better offensively at each spot except for the bottom two when Feliz and Ruiz play and they are way, way worse than Blake and DeWitt so that balances it a bit.

"I think the Phillies pitching is better from top to bottom."

Statistically (ERA+), it's a wash. The middle of the Dodgers rotation is slightly better and their bullpen is better except for the most important spot: closer, where the Phils get a big edge.

[Sophist]

That's a 5.21 RA away from LA this year for Lowe.

The figures from CBP are for his career.

[Sophist]

Can you just compare SLG straight-up, however? And even if you could, aren't the Dodgers simply a different lineup this week than they were for most of the season?

According to ESPN's 2008 park factor metrics Dodger Stadium is below average in HR (24th), H (30th), 2B (27th), and 3B (30th.) They're multi-year batting factor is 104.

I do think the Dodgers have more holes in their lineup (question marks.) Russell Martin had a huge series against the Cubs. There's a lot of talent in that lineup but Matt Kemp can be contained as Cameron was (when the Phils didn't walk him.) Ethier and Furcal are guys I worry about. Manny can be contained as Fielder was (although with more difficulty.)

[Sophist]

This was the Dodgers order for the Cubs series

Furcal: .467 OBP in DS
Martin: .385 OBP in 08
Manny: .396/.489/.743 with LA
Ethier: .335/.409/.583 postASB
Loney: .772 OPS in 08 but played like crap postASB (.526 in Sept)
Kemp: .821 OPS postASB (crushes LHP: .989 in '08)
DeWitt: .264/.344 (.265/.378 post ASB, .290/.370 at home)
Blake: 97 OPS+ and .327 OBP postASB with Dodgers but .288/.355/.531 away from LAD/CLE.

[king0fprussia]

Earlier people were mentioning that Torre had said they might use Lowe on 3 days rest.

He's only done it 4 times in his career, and he's 2-1 with a 5.09 ERA in those starts. One of those starts he only allowed 1 ER in 6 IP, but the other three were obviously poorer performances.

Of course, this is the postseason and there's a lot to be said for adrenaline in this kind of situation, but this could favor the Phillies if Torre makes this call.

[MG]

Dodgers went from having a crappy lineup prior to the trading deadline to one that was above average (Blake, Manny). With Furcal back and apparently healthy, I think they have a decent offensive team and why Cholly is right when he thinks both teams are going to score some runs this series.

Cholly may not have much of a feel about pitching but I wouldn't question is logic/insights into hitting generally.

[Haddon Heights Harv]

I'm seeing a lot of statistics, discussions about bullpens, and the "expert opinions" of baseball pundits. God bless you all, but few of you seem to "get it!!"

Listen up, Gentlemen: The Philadelphia Phillies are going to the f'ckin' World Series. Every time these guys have really had to respond to adversity, they have. Every night someone different steps up to save the day with a key long ball or defensive gem. They seem to get along well and they clearly play hard for Cholly. The Fightins' are happy, hungry, and they expect to win. Just don't be shocked when they do. It's our year.

[Pops]

Preach on Harv.... Can't wait for Thursday.

[clout]

sophist: Do you honestly think the Dodgers have as much power as the Phillies?

Re: Lowe, why is his career ERA at CBP not relevant? Since you're using his road ERA to suggest he may get pounded, his park ERA ought to be considered too, no?

[EastFallowfield]

Dodgers really pitching Lowe in gms 1 and 4?

Doesn't sound like they have enough starters.

[clout]

EF: They have Kershaw for game 4 although several posters have said they'll use Lowe on short rest. I haven't seen that written anywhere else.

[EastFallowfield]

The Dodgers.com website says they can pitch Lowe in 1, 4, and 7 and he's on short rest for 4 and regular for 7, so at least someone involved with the team is bringing it up.

[hey cholly]

My prediction: Simply reverse whatever S Phillips says. If he says: LA in six that means PHILS IN SIX...

Hmm... can't imagine what team BT host Karl Ravech will chooose?

[Sophist]

clout - No, I don't think that. Just bringing park factor into consideration since you argued your point by citing the difference in team SLG. The difference in those numbers is likely over-stated due to park considerations. How much so? I don't know. In the end, the Phils would still have some edge in that department -- which could be nice considering how pretty much every series this year has been decided by what team has hit the HR and what team has not.

And, likewise, I do think Lowe's CBP record is relevant. It's as relevant as any 3 game set could be. I was only throwing more information into the discussion. Whether it's predictive or not is another matter (we worried about Blanton's road ERA and questioned Wolf's performances outside of Petco), but it's all relevant.

Harv - I don't anymore attack you for your cheerleading than I would attack someone doing some kind of analysis of the teams. This is my form of fandom. These things aren't mutually exclusive.

[GoPhilsGo]

You tell it, Harv!

Phils in 6.

[MG]

hey cholly - Agreed. Steve Philips might be the worst analyst on Baseball Tonight even though I do think he knows a fair degree about baseball itself.

[Bob]

Repeating myself, but it's a long time between games. I think the key is Chase and whether the guy you just knew was going to punish the pitcher with hard shots a few times each game shows up, or whether the Chase of the last several games appears.

Just can't get a handle on whether there is an injury issue, year end fatigue, or simply "small sample size".

Also, for what it's worth, the idea of starting the series by buzzing Manny scares me. Pitch around him, have Sandra Bullock take him a cold beer a couple of times a game, whatever. But no sense in riling him up. The guy can flat out hit anybody. Keep him lazy and content.

I too will be really ticked if they are able to pitch around Howard all series and Manny ends up seeing lots of reasonably hittable pitches.