Madson's ability to handle 8th among series keys

Ryan Madson, who settled into the set-up role in September, will pitch in his first post-season after missing the '07 division series with injury.

What does it say when Madson’s mug appears in a thread the morning before Game 1 and not someone like Cole Hamels, Ryan Howard or Chase Utley? It says that Madson, and by extension the entire bullpen, will be the most important part of this series.

Here’s one theory on how the first round will unfold. A pair of anxious offenses sputter against formidable starting pitching. While the Phillies' offense finished hot, including a four-game sweep of the Brewers to get it all started, I’m not convinced it will carry into October, where there will be no Collin Balester. Based on the opposing pitching and how anxious the bats looked a year ago, they could be in for another low-scoring series. Milwaukee’s offense is actually quite similar, plus they've never experienced the post-season. They're thrilled just to be here.

The pivot point could be the eighth inning elbow joint of Madson. All he did in 14 September innings was fan 17 while walking one and giving up one earned. That’s a small sample size, but no mirage. His stuff has been excellent. Against Milwaukee, a team that struggles against right-handed pitching, he’s someone Charlie Manuel could use for more than an inning. If Madson, Brad Lidge and the rest of the 'pen can do what they've done all season, they have an excellent shot to outlast the bullpen-thin Brewers in a best of five.

Something to prove: Moving to the offense, Pat Burrell reportedly tweaked his back during batting practice and will be reevaluated this morning. No word on the extent of the injury. That’s no small footnote for Burrell, whose contract expires after the season and is counting on a high-profile finish to erase several months of strife.

Burrell and the rest of the offense came up small during last season’s NLDS. While Burrell went 2-for-11 (.182), so did Chase Utley, who was also invisible in this spot a year ago. It’s a nice idea to give Utley days off during the season to keep him fresh, but it’s easier said than done. Hopefully, the time off allowed him to recharge the batteries.

Simply J-Roll: Madson was a creative choice to top this thread, but the most important player on the field always defaults to Jimmy Rollins. The Phils are 42-15 (.737) when he scores a run this season and a 421-202 (.676) team over his career. If Jimmy’s in the mix, the Phils are a lock to take this series.

Comments

[J. Weitzel]

Final set of props to Pat Gillick for getting Scott Eyre in here. It changed a lot for the bullpen. Eyre hitting the waiver wire couldn't have come at a better time for the Phils.

[Indiana Sarge]

Well written JW. Here is to hoping Burrell is ok and that Madson, Lidge and the pen don't give us any scares like they did on Sunday. I'll be down at the game today and cannot wait.

Let's go Phils!

[NEPP]

I 2nd the Eyre move by Gillick. Its another in a series of scrapheap moves that Gillick seems to be the master of. Though it pales in comparsion to his finest move of all time: Jamie Moyer.

[phargo]

Good Morning!

I hardly ever get to see the top of a thread at this hour; it almost like there's something different about today...

Amen about Scott, he's a breath of fresh Eyre.

Sorry, couldn't resist, and Go Go Go Phils!

[diehard]

Still have 3 tickets available to today's game. m2t1m@yahoo.com

[GM-Carson]

The Eyre move was a good move, and he's already expressed he'd like to return to Philly next season even if it's only on a 1 year deal.

I'm not a Ryan Madson fan, but I need to give him credit, he's done a tremendous job stepping into the #1 setup man role.

Burrell sitting against young righty Gallardo with electric stuff may not be a bad thing if Manuel goes with Stairs in his place. I'm not suggesting Stairs is better than Burrell, but if Burrell's not ready Stairs is a good alternative against a righty.

Those J-Roll statistics of W/L record when he scores are amazing.

[AWH the RBP]

JW, you are correct in your evaluation of the bullpen's importance. However, the Burrell injury has me VERY, VERY concerned.

I have posted here numerous times before (and, perhaps, this is not the time to bring it up again), how very important IMO Burrell's RH power bat is to providing balance to this lineup - particulary in game 2 against CC Sabathia.

Get well, Pat.....get well.

[lekh tizdayen]

does anyone think that Manuel would be bullish enough to start Jenkins over Stairs if Burrell can't go? That would be tragic.

[Inside/Outside the Parker]

Go Phils!

Been fighting the good fight for Ralph Nader and haven't been able to post in a while. This is turning out to be an exciting end of the season in both politics and baseball. The best thing is, I get to root for the peoples champ in both. Go Phils! Go Nader!

[DickieThon]

Dear people's champ hero: please see www.RangeVote.com. That's something you should be working on.. not your pipe dream with one specific candidate.

Go Phils!

also: anybody have a pair of SRO tickets for sale for today's game that they'd like to let go for not more than $55 each? That's about my go-vs-go-to-sports-bar-and-watch break-even.

[Eric]

One nit: "Burrell went 3-for-11 (.182)". 3 for 11 is .272 (one worse then 3 for 10, ie .300).

[thephaithful]

Any word on Burrell this morning? The Phillies have been so lucky with injuries compared to most other teams this season, lets hope the "odds" dont catch up with us in October!

[J. Weitzel]

Thx for the correction. Should read 2-for-11, both Burrell and Utley.

[Edmundo]

"The Phils are 42-15 (.737) when he scores a run this season and a 421-202 (.676) team "

I've asked this before about this specific context-less stat -- does anyone have any stats about what effect other leadoff hitters have? My gut says that for a .500 club, I'd expect the "win when the leadoff hitter scores a run" pct. to be up in the 600s and in the 300s when they lose. I don't have a clue if Rollins has some remarkable impact of it that's just the way it works in MLB. (Likewise for any other position in the order).

[J. Weitzel]

Ed: I know Reyes has a similar effect.

[AFish]

No one normally covers batting practice on off days. It is possible Burrell was just showing the effects of a chronic injury, but reporters just happened to be watching this time.

[Eric]

Ah, that makes sense. Thanks for checking.

[TK]

Anyone know if this game can be streamed on espnradio.com? Or do I have to look into buying it on mlb.com?

[MPN]

TK: It looks like 830AM WEEU will stream the game, but not Jason's appearance on the radio show.

[Eric]

@Inside/Outside the Parker:
Nader is not the good fight this year. I bet I'd agree with 95% of why you say that he is, but in truth until we get a ranked choice system (maybe the RangeVote thing DickieThon mentioned is similar, I didn't spend too much time looking), a vote for Nader is a vote for nobody. Please pick an actual candidate and vote for that person. I live in SF now (born and raised in PA, hence the Phils love), so my vote doesn't matter, but in PA your's really does.

Anyway, I bet this blog doesn't want to be polluted by political discussion, especially when the Phils have a playoff game to win, so that's all I'll say.

[thephaithful]

ESPN 950AM is covering all the playoff games.

[Charlie Hayes]

Its the playoffs... You need Burrell in there as we saw in Atlanta he can look awful for 7 innings and then in one swing look awesome and win you a game. In burrell's last year of his contract in a town he says he loves playing in his back will have to be splitting in half not be in the lineup today.

[UD Hens]

I'm confused. Is Harry not part of the radio broadcast for this series?

[Bonehead]

Re keeping Utley fresh during the season: An underrated off season priority is to upgrade the Bruntlett spot on the roster. Phils need to rest Utley and Rollins a lot more often during the season, without such a painful loss of production.

[Bob]

My lousy radio won't pick up 830, so I can't hear Jason's observations first hand. But BL will hopefully help me get through the nervous day today with periodic "updates" from posters. I think after today we may have an idea how this will unfold, but right now, who knows?

[Bob]

Bonehead, I hear that.

[MG]

Few things I expect this series:

- Eyre to come through in a big spot
- Jenkins to not come though against his former team in a key spot
- Likewise for Madson
- Myers to be a headcase which results in poor outing
- Old Man Moyer comes through in a big way
- Daylight has its usual kyrptonite effects on Hamels' stuff
- JRoll to have a decent series
- Howard and Utley will be mixed

Unless the Phils get a strong start from Myers or an unexpected hero like Werth or Vic this series, I just don't feel good about their chances. I also agree with JW that Madson and the setup guys will play a big role and unfortunately I see them falter in one game that results in a costly lost.

Hate to say but just a feeling - Brewers in 5.

[MG]

There are a couple of players who might begin to cement their reps in Philly in particular this year including are Hamels (some buzzing that he isn't a big-game pitcher) and Madson (has a rep for melting down in key spots).

[lekh tizdayen]

Anyword on whether Burrell, Stairs, or Jenkins is starting? My preference would be in that order. I could never figure out a good comparison to a classic Jenkins swing and miss by two feet until I saw Greg Golson's four at bats the other day. Anyway, don't want to stay negative (unless, god forbid, Jenkins is starting), so let's hope Hamels ain't a vampire and can thrive in the light. But please Cole, no longsleeves this time!

[Andy]

I have to admit, I kinda like the heat throwing Madson. That 95 mph cheese he's been tossing has been a little wild (what am I saying - pretty effin wild) but it's been effective. I just hope that elbow (and shoulder and sundry ligaments) hold out for the next dozen games.

Someone needs to remind Rollins that to reach one hundred games they need to win eight more. Personally, I'd prefer 11 more and 103 wins.

[Sct]

Chin up, MG!

Hamels' ERA is higher daytime, but his w/l% is better, and most of his stats are right in line. His September start against the Brewers was a 4:00 game, and he gave up just 2 runs in 6.1 innings -- and no homeruns.

[Bonehead]

Not much drama left, but the postseason roster was officially due at 10am. Has anyone seen it yet?

[thephaithful]

This Gallardo kid has scary stuff, but he's coming off of 2 knee surgeries. And i've read that he was barely hitting 90 on the gun by the 4th inning his last start. They are going to run out Seth McClueng by the fifth im thinking, which should mean good things for the Phils.

I can't wait to see what kind of players Utley, Howard, and Rollins really are. You can look at millions of stats from reg season games, but after two series in the playoffs you find out who the real players are. And its not looking too good after the first series.

[Lake Fred]

My gut, as opposed to Cholly's gut, feels pretty good about this game, with or without Burrell, playing. I think the Brewers young fireballer will get the playoff jitters and get lit up by a playoff angry Phillies lineup.

I read the article yesterday about Hamels holistic approach to the health matters. I believe if it works for him, good. I wonder if Pat the Bat visited Cole's Witch Doctor to fix his ailing back?

[BobbyD]

Passing along from Philly.com:

Just for fun, an encore presentation of Carlos Beltran: "Without Santana, we felt, as a team, that we had a chance to win in our division. With him now, I have no doubt that we're going to win in our division. I have no doubt. We've got what it takes. To Jimmy Rollins: We are the team to beat."

I never get tired of that quote.

Despite the fact that Beltradamus had "no doubt," the Mets are now home for the playoffs. Again.

[Bedrosian's Beard]

Can the game be viewed on the internet anywhere?

[BobbyD]

MG - That's a defeatist attitude. There's no reason on paper to pick the Brewers. All 10 of espn.com's "experts" are picking the Phillies for God's sake. Repeat after me: The Phillies are pretty good this year.

[ozark]

One of the unwritten keys to the series is Ruiz's defense. With Madson's and Lidge's penchant for dirtballs, Carlos needs to be solid (as usual) w/ runners on base.

[timr]

The Phils need to jump out to an early lead. It will set the tone for the whole series, erase the memory of last year's dreadful playoffs, and keep those jitters away.

If they don't have a lead by the third inning, I feel like bad things will happen.

[Bedrosian's Beard]

Surprise, MG not feeling good about something!

[GoPhilsGo]

Some people just can't pick the Phils to win no matter what.

[Sct]

I agree with timr about the importance of an early lead, especially in Game 1. Hamels was solid in his game against the Brewers, but they gave him 5 runs in the first two innings. Score of 3-1 or better after three, and Hamels will settle in and shut 'em down for seven or eight innings.

After Game 1, they can outlast the starter and concentrate on clobbering the bullpen.

[TK]

950 ESPN won't be streaming it online. So I guess my best bet, incredibly, is WEEU? I wonder how they get away with carrying the game?

[Willard Preacher]

"All 10 of espn.com's "experts" are picking the Phillies for God's sake"

Including Steve Phillips? And you're not concerned about that????

[Bubba]

Hittin' post-season!

[Nihongo]

Edwards moved the party to universalized health-care. Perot's economics doomed Bush1 in the general, because he failed to heed the warning. Nader's left-of-Gore (!!) environmental plan siphoned Florida away.

Edwards was right on health care. Perot's populism was embraced by Clinton. Gore bolted to the center on the environment only to find he could have won if he followed his heart. Five percent is a fair-enough threshold and any movement towards proportional voting is married to increasing the five-percent barrier to upwards of 15--when Clinton tried to do it the GOP came back with 15 percent. You want to throw away your vote in California or Rhode Island or Delaware fine, but putting a Pennsylvania vote towards Nader is like ten California votes for Nader in terms of the way that it influences the Democratic party in the future.

Go Phillies!

[J. Weitzel]

Can it with the politics, please. We're in the playoffs.

[GM-Carson]

I'm a big momentum guy, thinking it definitely helps some. Hamels not giving up a run in the top of the 1st is crucial in my opinion. Seems like our starting pitchers have had problems in the 1st inning a lot this season (especially Myers). Being down a run or runs before you even get a chance to bat has to be a bit demoralizing.

[GM-Carson]

Thanks Weitzel, I hate the political gab.

[control13]

That's disturbing that PatB hurt/"tweaked" his back. Hate to be negative, but it sounds like typical philly luck .... like when Timmonen was suddenly out for the Flyers/Pens series. Guess we can just hope it's not serious.

[Jack]

Uh, ok.

Seriously, though, how are people following online? Radio feed? Gameday?

[JMS]

So I'm watching something on the Tommy Gun on the Military Channel, and they just made the best analogy:

"Gen. Thompson felt that a large, slow-moving round could be more effective than a fast one."

Sound like anyone we know?

[Brian G]

I had planned on voting for Fabio Castro before he was sent to the Blue Jays.

I'm on the west coast this year so I'll be playing the "avoid all sources of electronic media from noon on until I can leave work and watch the tivoed game" game. Always fun!

Andy: Great point on Rollins prediction. I guess that means we're going to lose 4-1 in the World Series.

My prediction for this series is a 3-0 Phillies sweep. The Phillies learned from last year that they need to keep calm and they're gonna jump on Gallardo. Sabathia is gonna hit a wall tomorrow. And Wednesday. Moyer. Nuff said.

[Bubba]

JMS- my favorite Moyer description:

"In the second inning, Moyer struck out Juan Encarnacion on what was either a slow curve or a change-up. Either way, it looked like it was travelling in a School Zone it was moving so slow. The thing practically had its hazard lights on."

David Murphy – Daily News

[control13]

From zolecki's blog:

"Wednesday, October 1, 2008
Will Pat Burrell play today? Trainer sets news conference.
In an unusual move, the Phillies will bring head athletic trainer Scott Sheridan to the interview room at noon today.

Sheridan is expected to discuss Pat Burrell’s availability for today’s game against Milwaukee .

Burrell left batting practice yesterday with back soreness.

The Phillies say they will know more about Burrell’s availability after batting practice today, but Sheridan ’s trip to the interview room could suggest that his status is questionable. "

[JMS]

Bubba, have you ever seen the Moyer HoF plaque?

http://i444.photobucket.com/albums/qq170/lineofidledays/Baseball/MoyerHallofFame.jpg

[gabe]

Delurking to share what I found about live streaming video of the game. Looks like TBS is offering it for free:

http://philadelphia.phillies.mlb.com/mlb/hotcorner/index.jsp

I'm hoping to ditch work at 2, but if I can't, this is plan B. Go Phillies!

[Bubba]

If Pat can't play, I wonder if Charley's gut reaction will be to go Sunday's hot hitting Left Fielder?

[Bedrosian's Beard]

I can't imagine a trainer has a press conference to announce a player CAN play, right?

Not good. Why is PtB swinging a bat anyway?!!?

[JMS]

I don't want Taguchi, Bruntlett, or Stairs out there, to be quite honest.

I wonder if Coste can play LF. Pffft.

[GM-Carson]

From Phillies.com:

The Phillies made the following moves today to meet Major League Baseball's 10:00 a.m. roster deadline for the Division Series:

• Reliever Rudy Seanez and catcher Lou Marson are not on the roster but will travel with the team.

• Pitcher Kyle Kendrick, infielders Mike Cervenak and Andy Tracy and outfielder Greg Golson have reported to Clearwater, FL, and will participate in the Florida Instructional League program to stay sharp.

• Pitchers Adam Eaton and Les Walrond and infielder Tadahito Iguchi have returned to their respective homes.

Under Major League Baseball rules, rosters can be changed for each postseason series. Pitcher-for-pitcher and player-for-player roster replacements for an injured player during a series are allowed if approved by the Commissioner's Office. An injured player who is replaced during a series must miss the remainder of that series and the entire next series.

Pitchers (11)
Blanton, Joe
Condrey, Clay
Durbin, Chad
Eyre, Scott
Hamels, Cole
Happ, J.A.
Lidge, Brad
Madson, Ryan
Moyer, Jamie
Myers, Brett
Romero, J.C.

Catchers (2)
Coste, Chris
Ruiz, Carlos

Infielders (6)
Bruntlett, Eric
Dobbs, Greg
Feliz, Pedro
Howard, Ryan
Rollins, Jimmy
Utley, Chase

Outfielders (6)
Burrell, Pat
Jenkins, Geoff
Stairs, Matt
Taguchi, So
Victorino, Shane
Werth, Jayson

Manager
Manuel, Charlie

Coaches
Billmeyer, Mick
deArmas, Roly
Dubee, Rich
Henderson, Ramon
Lopes, Davey
Smith, Steve
Thompson, Milt
Williams, Jimy

[JMS]

Secret info that I shouldn't know...

Burrell is fine.

[James Fayleez]

If Madson is the key to this series, then it's pretty much over.

Granted he had a nice September, but he is no more than a mop-up guy, and sometimes he can't even do that right.

You just picked a guy that everybody hates ot get all these responses. Well done.

[vegas]

I'm hoping for the best and preparing for worst on Pat's back health. With that said, this team always seems to rally up after a teamate goes down and someone unlikely comes up big in replacement. A wounded animal is most dangerous. Positive vibes.

[Bubba]

James- Not everybody hates Madson--he has been a good part of a good bullpen.

[TK]

Madson is not a mop up guy. He's emerged as the setup man this month, and has been very, very good. I understand he's given up some big hits in his career, but he has pitched very well this year.

(Somebody please rebuke this post for Beerleaguer reverse jinx's sake!)

[bay_area_phan]

I don't know why, but I find it amusing that Lou Marson, who played all of 1 meaningless game this year, gets to travel with the team, but Adam Eaton, who made 19 starts this year, just gets sent home. It's like they don't even want him around to breathe on the rest of the team. He might infect them with his own suckitude.

[John]

Rich Hoffman is currently doing a chat at Philly.com. He says that Manuel has two lineup cards ready and he'll pick one after Pat takes batting practice.

Charlie also said that if Pat can't go, Matt Stairs will be starting in his place.

[Bonehead]

Madson's a keeper.
In a ideal BP, he would be the 6th-7th inning guy, not the 8th inning/setup guy.

[Lake Fred]

Will Adam Eaton even get an invite to Spring Training? We don't want him breathing his suckitude on up and coming prospects.

[Phils in 2028]

BobbyD: you are a loser. Beltran is a better all around player than anyone on your team and deep down you know it. If I were you, I would be more concerned with winning 3 games against starters not named Sabathia, because you're going to have a helluva time beating him. Good luck though.

[GM-Carson]

If Pat can't go, it's reported that Stairs will start in RF with Werth in LF. I agree with the batters, but not the defensive alignment.

[bay_area_phan]

It seems like every day there's one new poster who shows up on this blog out of the blue and makes assertions so preposterous that one can only conclude he has been in Antarctica, without tv or internet access, for the last month. Welcome back from Antarctica, JF.

[Bonehead]

I like Beltran as a player (even tough he comes up small in big spots). But he's nowhere close to Rollins or Ultey as all around players.

[Im a Met Fan]

Hey guys i havent been around for a while due to school heating up and also i was way too emotional and pissy over the last few weeks that itd be extremely difficult to be objective... Either way good luck in the playoffs i can see you guys taking it... Had we gotten in nobody would scare me besides you guys and the Angels... Either way if you get past the Brew (which you should) just hammer down on whomever wins Cubs-Dodgers and then handle the AL team please

[JMS]

I wouldn't want Eaton germs getting anywhere near the prospects, but I almost feel bad for the guy. How do you get so far in baseball and then just blow it. Geeze.

And I do feel bad for whoever signs CC Sabathia next year. His arm is going to escape from his body sometime in early May.

[Bonehead]

Fred, history would suggest that Phils would invite Eaton to ST, instead of eating the $8MM. But, this might be the one exception. Phils may bite the bullet on this one, and just completely cut ties with Eaton.

[BobbyD]

I like Stairs over Jenkins.

[BobbyD]

For those who didn't see it from philly.com:

Just for fun, an encore presentation of Carlos Beltran: "Without Santana, we felt, as a team, that we had a chance to win in our division. With him now, I have no doubt that we're going to win in our division. I have no doubt. We've got what it takes. To Jimmy Rollins: We are the team to beat."
I never get tired of that quote. Despite the fact that Beltradamus had "no doubt," the Mets are now home for the playoffs. Again.

[JMS]

How nice, Sabathia just said our line-up is like an AL team, "probably the best in the league." Darn right.

[JMS]

Off to the game now...GO PHILS!

[bay_area_phan]

I mean, it's one thing to send KK to the FIL. He clearly needs it, if he ever hopes to get his career back on track. But sending a guy home, after he was on your roster for more than half the season, sort of sends a message. The message is: "You are not part of this team. We are here, in spite of you, not because of you. In short, you are a loser."

Granted, that's all entirely true. But, just as a courtesy, I would have expected the Phillies to do the sensitive thing and just let the guy travel with the team. I guess they decided that, since they've already paid him $24M, they're not gonna splurge on air fare and a hotel room for the trip to Milwaukee.

[thephaithful]

I checked the Phillies lineup stats vs Gallardo - Pedro Feliz has the most success: 2-5 HR 2 RBI. Howard: 0-2 2K 1BB. Utley Victorino: never faced.

[clout]

Keep in mind my Stairs prediction.

[thephaithful]

Adam Eaton was in the first wave of players to run off the bench and celebrate. That guaranteed him a trip home. He was probably told specifically that he wasn't allowed to celebrate and he was one of the first guys out. Thats what he gets. i hope when he comes home his family left him.

[Bubba]

I don't think there is any sub-text to Eaton being left off the roster.
The Phillies are trying to pick 25 players that can help them win. Eaton was not even close to being on that list

[Jack]

Clout- What was your Stairs prediction?

[bay_area_phan]

Bubba: You misread my posts. Of course, he should be left off the roster. That's not even a question. The part I find amusing is that he isn't even permitted to travel with the team, the way Seanez will.

[Bonehead]

I wonder why Cholly prefers Stairs in RF, Werth in LF. Curious.

[Go Brewers!]

I'm no Einstein, but I would say that in the event of injury, Seanez is the first guy in. While Eaton may be next in line after Seanez.

[Go Brewers!]

Bonehead: I see where you got your name. Beltran is better than Rollins and better than Utley. He has the highest SB% in the history of MLB. He has more power than both. He drives in more runs than both. He is a Gold Glover at a very key position (much like Rollins, but Beltran's bat is better). I'm just saying, put Beltran in that ballpark for 81 games and he would hit about 35HR consistently. Don't deny that.