Phillies stick with roster; Kuo replaces Saito for LA

Rosters were finalized by the Phillies and Dodgers this morning with only one change to announce.

Closer Takashi Saito, who’s trying to recover from elbow problems, will be replaced by left-hander Hong-Chih Kuo. Jonathan Broxton will assume ninth-inning duties for the Dodgers. Meanwhile, the Phils will stick with the same 11-pitcher setup they had in the division series. Despite talks that he could be replaced, left-hander J.A. Happ stays aboard and former Dodger Rudy Seanez sits out another series. Beerleaguer: I’m a little surprised by the Phillies' decision in taking Happ, who hasn't pitched in some time, over the more experienced Seanez. It's atypical of what they'd usually do. Perhaps the soon-to-be 40-year-old's tank has run dry.

Comments

[kdon]

It would have been odd if they had dropped a long reliever for a short reliever, considering the longer series.

Personally, I think Seanez makes more sense than Condrey, but I probably have more faith in Happ to soak up innings than the Phils do. Basically it looks like this.

9th: Lidge
8th: Madson
6th and 7th: Romero, Durbin, Eyre
Long relief: Condrey
Emergency: Happ

Funny, about two years ago this would look like a god awful bullpen.

[stjoehawk]

So with Kuo on the NLCS roster, it should be fairly automatic that Utley & Howard are split up in the lineup, right?

[Bubba]

Hawk- It's automatic that Cholly goes with the gut filling out his lineup card.

[Durbinator]

The Phillies should have had Seanez for the NLDS and switched him for Happ in the NLCS. We could have used Seanez in Game 3 of the NLDS instead of relying too much on Eyre against righties. With the NLCS being a longer series, I want Happ.

[Jack]

Hawk- Yes, Utley and Howard should be split up. I would probably go with Rollins-Chase-Werth-Howard, but I can see Charlie being reluctant to put Werth in the 3 hole against a Righty GB pitcher; seems like it's tailor-made for a DP if Chase gets on.

[Jack]

The bigger question is whether Dobbs gets the start or not. If Feliz plays, against Lowe he is almost guaranteed to go 0-3 with 2 groundouts and a K.

[GM-Carson]

Absolutely Dobbs should start at 3rd base tonight, but there at 95% chance that Manuel plugs 1st-Swing GIDP Feliz in instead.

[Haddon Heights Harv]

I'm a little surprised they didn't go with experience, but Seanez looked spent at the end of the regular season. Throughout the year, our friend Cholly has gone with his gut, and (considering where we are) his intuition has been pretty good.

I'm also not surprised that the national writers are in love with the Dodgers. Look, no one will mistake Philly for La-la land, and the sports pundits would all rather cover a WS game after a nice day on the beach staring at cleavage. The closest we come to Manny's dreds is that ugly thing growing on Werth's chin. We're not sexy, and we're not as good a story as Manny vs the Red Sox would be. We are, however, the better all around ballclub. Bring it on, Tinseltown!

[Lake Fred]

I didn't realize we were on a new thread. Reposted from the end of the last thread:

I know this is the wrong time to make such a post, but I heard on the Houston radio last Friday that Randy Wolf no longer has "pitching on the west coast" as one of his requirements as he heads into post season free agency. He said that he used to think that way, but since being a member of both the Dodgers and the Padres, he has come to realize that being on a west coast team is not what he thought it would be. The Astros want to resign Randy Wolf.

[AWH the RBP]

Jack, Werth has only GIDP 3 times this season. Once in the NLDS, and twice during the regular season.

He's extremely hard to double up because of his speed.

I would split up the lefites, as LA is going with 3 LHP in the pen.

They are worried about Howard and Utley, and I would force them to burn more than one of the LHP in a key situation in the middle innings, rather than give them the luxury of using only one early, and being able to come back and use one later on in the game.

I know Chollie likes Vic at the top of the order, but Werth swung the bat well during the NLDS with lots of XBHs.

Split 'em, Charlie, split 'em.

[AWH the RBP]

L Fred, are you suggesting the Phillies ought to have an interest in Wolf?

IMO, I'd rather have Happ in the rotation, and use the money saved to try and re-sign Burrell.

[Brian G]

I'm also surprised they'd keep Happ, considering I'm not quite sure what situation they'll actually use him in.

Count me in for REALLY hoping Cholly splits up Utley and Howard but not expecting it. With Utley's lack of power right now it really doesn't make a difference where he hits vs Werth. Why make Joe Beimel twice as valuable as he would be otherwise?

[AWH the RBP]

Carson, I agree. Charlie likely will start Feliz.

It's a shame, though, because this is going to be a very tough series and the Phillies can't afford to give up any outs.

Also, with Feliz on the bench vs. the RHP, if the pitcher gets in trouble and Torre brings in a LHP to face Dobbs, it gives Chollie another RH bat on the bench, rather than three LH bats in Stairs, Dobbs and Jenkins.

Feliz can always be brought in as a defensive replacement alte in the game.

My lineup tonight would be:

JRoll
Uts
Werth
Howard
Burrell
Vic
Dobbs
Chooch
Hamels

[AWH the RBP]

"Why make Joe Beimel twice as valuable as he would be otherwise?"

Exactly.

Also, Brian, the fact that LA is going with 3 LHP in the pen says to me that Torre may EXPECT Charlie to split up Uts and Ryno.

At the very least he's hedging his bets with an extra LHP.

[Bubba]

I hope Vic bats 6th. He seems to take away that black hole feeling at the bottom of the lineup.
Really great to still be in the game this late in the year. Why not win the whole thing?

[RSB]

I think the Phillies are over Randy Wolf.

My guess is that Feliz will start because of Hamels and the right-handed hitters in LA's lineup. He would be a virtual lock for an 0-4 off Lowe.

[Lake Fred]

AWH and RSB, I personally have never been a Randy Wolf fan. I don't think he'll ever be much of a force as an MLB starter. I just wanted to get the info out on BL, which is a new position for Randy Wolf, because I remember that in the past a number of BLers were bemoaning the fact that Wolf only wanted to pitch for a west coast team.

[Lake Fred]

I'd rather have a Bulldog (Blanton) than a Wolf!

[mike cunningham]

Against Derek Lowe,

Pedro Feliz has 5 hits for a .217 batting average. 7 K, 2 GIDP. 2 of those hits were HR.

Greg Dobbs: 0 For 9.

[king0fprussia]

In case no one's posted this yet, coolstandings is putting the Phillies to win in 7, with a 55% chance.

But good ol' ESPN's "Diamond Mind" (which sounds like some sort of SkyNet computer) gave the Dodgers a 62% chance of taking it.

Good to know all this supercomputing is going to baseball.

[kdon]

"coolstandings is putting the Phillies to win in 7, with a 55% chance."

A good time to share a very nerdy question:

Assuming that PHI would beat LA 55% of the time in an individual game, how long would the NLCS need to be to give PHI a 95% chance of winning the series as a whole.

[JMARR]

KOP-

What were those two services predicting for Dodgers vs. Cubs? I'm sure the Cubbies were heavy favorites.

[kdon]

Forgot the "?"

I'll also give multiple choice answers.

a) 95
b) 7
c) 3001
d) 269

[Ribbies]

Here are some good numbers I just copied off 700level:

From August 1st to the end of the season:

Phillies: 33-21
Dodgers: 30-23

Last 20 games plus playoffs:

Phillies: 17-7
Dodgers: 15-8

Since Manny became a Dodger:

Howard: 38 runs, 13 doubles, 2 triples, 18 HRs, 51 RBIs, .276 Avg

Ramirez: 36 runs, 14 doubles, 0 triples, 17 HRs, 53 RBIs, .396 Avg

[Sct]

Supercomputing is crap. Way too many intangibles and semitangibles to deal with.

It's been said here before, but I think Happ is in there for headcase insurance. If Myers melts down in the first again, and Dubee can't find that switch in Myers' back this time, they need to have a prayer of cobbling another eight innings together.

0-9 against Lowe doesn't make a great case for sacrificing Feliz's defense in game 1. If he goes 0-4 and stifles a couple of rallies by turning RBI doubles to left into double plays, I'll take it any day. Provided they win, of course. :) Dobbs may be a better resource as a PH than playing four at-bats.

Here's a proposal: in Game 1 of the WS, let Hamels hit for himself and DH for Feliz or Chooch. (Not to get ahead of ourselves...)

[Deutsche Phan]

"The Diamond Mind funding bill is passed. The system goes online on August 4th, 2007. Human decisions are removed from strategic defense. Diamond Mind begins to learn at a geometric rate. It becomes self-aware at 2:14am Eastern time, August 29th. In a panic, they try to pull the plug."

[Brian G]

"Supercomputing is crap."

Yeah, you tell 'em Sct!

[That Dude]

Am I missing something? I literally cannot find one "talking head expert" picking the Phillies? I know I am biased, but I think this is a pure "pick 'em" type series, but almost every expert has Dodgers in 5 or 6.

[optimuspun]

I'm a long time BL lurker, having only posted once before about Brett Myers now being a walkstar. I couldn't resist, though, in chiming in about the mystery injury that seems to be plaguing Chase Utley. What shouldn't come as a surprise to beerleaguers is that the injury--what's speculated to be a partially torn labrum--likely occurred in mid-June. What may come as a surprise, a kind of self-congratulatory pleasant one, is that BL seems to have spotted something wrong almost immediately.

On June 16, the first game of their series against the Red Sox, the Phils' offense looked good, knocking out Bartolo Colon early. One player who didn't look good, however, was Chase Utley, who turned in an 0-5 performance and (as many posters noted in the gamechat) looked uncomfortable both at the plate and in the field all day.

In the next morning's chat, beerleaguer baxter had this to say:

"Prediction: Chase Utley is in big trouble. He messed up his swing on that second strike in the first inning. After he whiffed on that high fastball, Utley looked awkward swinging the bat for the rest of the game. Teams will start pitching Utley high in the strike zone, exploiting the hole in his loopy swing. Hopefully Chase makes a quick adjustment, but if he doesn't, he might be in for a slump."

Interestingly enough, many beerleaguers chided baxter, suggesting instead that two bad games does not a slump make. Prescient as baxter was, do we have reason to believe it was the June 16 first inning at bat where something went wrong?

I don't believe so. Now, I've watched Utley's first inning strikeout (via MLB.tv), and Utley's first swing of the game is indeed ugly. But I think it is unlikely that this awkward AB was where the problem originated. Instead, I think we need to look at the frustrating conclusion of the previous 10-inning loss to the Cardinals to see where Utley's injury may have occurred.

With two out in the bottom of the tenth, and nobody on base, Rick Ankiel hits a bouncer to second base. Utley moves to his left, fields the ball relatively cleanly, and then makes a wild throw to Tom Gordon, who's covering first. On the throw, it appears that Utley pulls up lame (though, he may be making a kind of "frustrated hop," a behavioral equivalent to biting one's lip after a verbal miscue).

Two batters later, another ground ball to second with Gordon covering, and another awkward toss to Gordon. This one goes E1, but on replay, Utley noticeably drags his right foot and does indeed throw a bit behind Gordon, covering first. Gordon probably should have made the catch, but my guess is that Utley's halted throw was enough to interfere with the timing of what was a bang-bang play.

I've watched Utley's AB's from the June 15 game; nothing noticeably wrong until the problems in the field in the 10th. Through that inning, his slash line for the year was .309/.401/1.037. After that inning: .278/.362/.818. Before, 22 HR in 71 GP; after, 11 HR in 88 GP.

All of this, combined with both the front office's suggestions of a hip problem and changes in Utley's mechanics at the plate, leads me to agree with those who believe we'll learning of a nagging hip injury come the offseason.

Lastly, I should say that it really is interesting reading over those posts from June 15-16. BL was all over this injury-related slump from the very beginning.

[CY]

KDOn-

I will go C...

Always guess c.. Athough D wouldn't surprise me.

[CY]

Or did I just get suckered and it will always we 55%?

[Clay Dalrymple]

I don't like the Happ move. Charley is never going to use him. And honestly, which is the more likely scenario: 1) Myers or Moyer gets bombed out in third inning, no off day the next day, and it's a situation where we're putting up the white flag--8-1 maybe. Or 2) Moyer/Blanton pitch decently, get into the 6th inning, Dodgers have a few men on, Phils pitcher spot coming up in the order soon, you have Russell Martin/Casey Blake or Jeff Kent/Juan Pierre coming up and you need to get an out or two? That's when you would use Seanez. Manage to the high- leverage critical spot, not the less likely one. Think thunderstorms, not hurricanes.

[bay_area_phan]

I'm probably in the minority on this, but I would give Coste the start over Ruiz tonight. The first game of the series is vital -- even more so for the team playing at home. The Dodgers only have 1 guy on the team who is a threat on the basepaths and, with our best pitcher on the mound, there's a good chance we'll be able to keep him mostly, if not entirely, off those basepaths. Therefore, defense at the catcher's position is not really at a premium tonight.

For some reason, Ruiz gets tons of love at Beerleaguer, but his bat was singularly awful in the NLDS. Coste's 2nd half offense has been even worse than Ruiz's but he has had an 11-day break, which might help rejuvenate him. At least Coste, unlike Ruiz, has a CHANCE at having a big game at the plate. Oh, one more thing: the only time Coste ever faced Lowe, he went 1 for 3 with a homerun.

[mike cunningham]

@clay agreed. In fact I would think that issue comes up more than needed an appearance from So Taguchi. I would have kept both Seanez and Happ.

Unless you are don't plan on using Blanton to start, you are going to be using Condrey in big spots in the 6th or 7th. Or using Eyre against RHP that you would normally not use him for.

[Bob]

optimuspun: very interesting & well researched comment, hope you post more often.

I vaguely remember the game, but not the specific plays you are talking about. Would like to see the replays.

[bay_area_phan]

Clay: Except that you wouldn't use Seanez in that situation. You'd use Condrey or Durbin or Romero, who are all better than Seanez.

[Jerry]

Clay:
Maybe Happ will never pitch and at some point we'll wish Seanez was out there. Also, Utley and Howard will probably hit back-to-back during the playoffs, and at some point it will make life easier for Joe Torre. Maybe those two things cost us a game or the series; maybe not.
Let's not confuse the team getting to the NLCS with Charlie Manuel becoming an astute manager willing to adjust his thinking. He deserves credit for the team's success, but he's still Charlie Manuel.

[mike cunningham]

@bap -- I forgot about Chad Durbin. How the mighty have fallen.

A healthy-effective Durbin would preclude the need for Seanez on the team.

I think Condrey is better than we think he is, but I'm not sure I want him in a spot over Seanez.

[Kutztown fan]

Mike Celizic seems unnecessarily harsh in this column:
http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/27078426/

[TK]

Well, accuscore has the Phils aat 57% to win the game tonight...

[bay_area_phan]

Durbin has not been good over the last 6 weeks, but I'll still take my chances with him over Seanez. Condrey too. At least Condrey and Durbin can throw strikes. Seanez is completely wild and invariably comes up small in high-leverage situations.

[Bubba]

K Fan-National media will always bash Phila. teams.We are looking for 8 more wins . They can keep their respect.

[clout]

Mike C: Do you think Feliz is more likely to get a hit off Lowe than Dobbs?

[mike cunningham]

@clout -- I posted those stats without commentary. But your Feliz-Dobbs alert system, copyright by davthom, is working fine.

9AB are a limited sample size as are Feliz' 23 AB.

But... given that ONE player has actually hit him 5 times and the other NEVER. I'd say Feliz is more likely to get a hit off of him. Given that information, yes.

I would start Dobbs tomorrow night, however,

Tonight, I'll go defense over offense.

[optimuspun]

Thanks Bob. I don't know if there's any way to get to the video, other than through mlb.tv; if you have an account, though, you should definitely check out the bottom of the 10th of that June 15 game.

On another note, delving so deep into an explanation of one player's strange seasonal line has gotten me thinking about the subterranean role that injuries have likely had on this team. While last year the injuries were the type to keep players on the DL--Howard's, Utley's, and Hamels's, in particular--the only major injury that landed anyone on the DL this year was Rollins's ankle. Even then, the FO's response was to try to keep trotting him out there.

The point is that the 2008 Phillies were maddening, largely because each major offensive player was awful for extended stretches of time. One possible explanation, the one that I now favor, is that the FO prefers to have their players work through injuries (cf. Ryan Howard in early 2007), perhaps because the drop-off in talent is severe enough that an Utley at 80% is worth more than Eric Bruntlett at 100%. This speaks to the lack of depth in the farm system as much as anything else--that you need to keep hurt players in the lineup because the alternative is TJ Bohn. But it also puts into perspective the idea that merely failing to put players on the DL is an indication that your team is injury-free.

[AWH the RBP]

Actually, bap, looking at Durbin's gamelogs, he had his downspell from the end of July, when his ERA was 1.67, until Sept. 16th when his ERA peaked at 2.98. In the 21 appearances (22.1 IP) during that span, he had an ERA of 6.45.

Since the middle of Sept. (6 appearances, and yes, small sample size) a less frequently used, and apparently more rested, Durbin has an ERA of 1.50, and seems to have turned it around.

IMO, one appearance in the NLDS is not enough to make a judgement.

[Len39]

This feels like the longest afternoon of my life. I can't wait for game time. Is Kershaw coming out of the bullpen? If so we definitely need to split up Howard and Chase.

[Lake Fred]

optimuspun, you're suggesting that Utley has a lesser version of the same injury that has knocked Mike Lowell out of the Bosox lineup? I believe Lowell also has bone spurs with his injury.

[Sophist]

optimuspun - I appreciate your post. fascinating stuff. That game against STL is one of the few I've missed this year. I do agree with you to an extent that the putative tendency of this FO to play injured players speaks to a lack of depth in the system. But I don't know if Utley's case is good evidence. How many people could play 2B the way Utley has played it defensively, been as effective as he is on the paths, and post a .278/.362/.818 for about half a season?

Just on the latter question alone there are 8 other 2Bmen with OPS greater than .812 this season (Fontenot, Kinsler, Uggla, Pedroia, DeRosa, Brian Roberts, Orlando Hudson, and Ray Durham--minimum 60 games played.) There are 9 other 2Bmen with OBP over .360 this year (the above list plus KC's Alberto Callapso.)

Considering that there are over 20 teams without 2Bmen as effective as Utley's been since that day in June, I wouldn't think there are many teams with back-up 2Bmen who could be as effective as Utley has. Look at the Mets, Dodgers, and Angels. These are successful teams with 2Bmen with OPS+ under 100.

[AWH the RBP]

And, YES, ERA is not necessarily the best measure of a RP, but it a something of an indicator of his effectiveness.

In looking at his frequency of use by Charlie, he was used the the following percentage of games as the season wore on:

M/April 43%
May 32%
June 35%
July 52%
Aug 48%
Sept 52%

He was cruising through the end of June, but when Gordon went down, Chollie hopped on the Durbin.

Did he wear down because he was overworked a little too much, and has the rest the last few days helped him?

That's what I would like to know.

[kdon]

Thank you CY for playing along, unlike the rest of these losers actually talking baseball.

The correct answer was D (I specifically didn't make it C!)

To recap (for no one, apparently), if the Phillies had a 55% chance of beating LA in one game, it would require a 269 game NLCS to ensure that they would win the series 95% of the time.

[Sophist]

"but Seanez looked spent at the end of the regular season."

Seanez finished decently, at least if we just look at the last month of the season.

Since Aug 29th: 8 G, 8 IP, 2 R, 5H/3BB, 6 SO, .185/.258/.407.
6 IR, 3 IRS.

I think this decision is tactical and not related to performance.

[diggitydave]

I find it very interesting, as it was mentioned before, that many of the prognosticators seem to be picking the Dodgers to win this series - and in 5 or 6 games.

I actually think these two teams are about as evenly matched as possible (as evidenced by both teams sweeping each other in their respective home park this year). When evaluating their starting pitching and lineups, both squads stack up relatively equally.

Where I think the Phillies have the decided advantage, however, is in the bullpen. I don't think this has been discussed enough within the national media - two of the three best pitchers in the Dodgers' pen (Saito and Kuo) are either off of the roster or a major unknown due to a lingering injury. Saito is off the roster, which gives the Phils a huge advantage late in games, and if Kuo is not 100% what remains is Broxton (power pitcher but the Phils hit him in the regular season), Beimel (LOOGY defined), Wade (young with potential, but unproven), and Maddux (whom the Phillies smoked).

I don't think the Phillies will run away with this series by any means, but if they can string together a few runs against each of the opposing starters and get to the 'pen by the 7th/8th inning at the latest, they should have ample opportunity to take advantage and score some much-needed runs.

[clout]

Mike C: I'm not looking for a debate as you've been the chief apologist for Feliz since day one.
But given that Dobbs has been hitting above .330 in his last 12 starts and given that Dobbs had only 3 ABs off Lowe this season and given that Feliz is 0 for 6 off Lowe this season and 1 for 7 last season and the HRs came three years ago and that Dobbs OPS vs. RHP is 200 POINTS above Feliz, I'd say your opinion is pretty weak.

[optimuspun]

Lake Fred -- I'm not sure what to make of the injury, just that there seems to be enough converging evidence to believe there is one. And I also have to admit that this stuff is completely falsifiable, and maybe more iffy than I'm making it out to be: it could turn out that Utley really did lose his power because he doesn't lift during the season. Then it looks completely premature (and silly) on my part to make the claims I'm making. But we all love to believe ourselves.

Sophist -- you're right about Utley being the example of the kind of player you might want playing hurt, as a hurt Utley is still better than just about everyone else. I also don't want to be completely cynical; I have to assume that the FO is talking to Utley, asking him if he can go, etc etc. He is, after all, somebody they've got a lot of money invested in. Moreover, things seem to have paid off: in a tight divisional race, the Phils may not have been able to afford to lose Utley for several weeks just to guarantee his full health for (say) the playoffs.

If anything, I guess I just don't envy the people who have to make these kinds of decisions: about, say, whether to encourage a guy to sit, to have surgery, etc. (though as a fan, I always feel that I could do a better job if I had to).

I remember a few games at the end of the season where Dobbs wasn't playing against righties, while Feliz was getting the start. Eventually Charlie indicated that Dobbs's back had been bothering him. I just wonder how often what we perceive as gut calls as to, say, who starts, are actually moves forced by injury, personal problems, and the like--stuff the manager can't and won't ever mention.

[J.R. King]

My wishlist:

1. Split Utley and Howard with Werth
2. Play Dobbs at third
3. START THE GAME ALREADY!!!

[AWH the RBP]

"I'd say your opinion is pretty weak."

clout, I'm going to nitpick with you just to have some fun, BUT

I would correct you by saying his ANALYSIS was weak, not his opinion. mike c has pretty strong opinions, even when he's wrong.

[TK]

By far the best article I've read on this series.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8182

[Bubba]

JR King- Agree with you on # 1&2.
Re #3 - wait 'til I get home from work , please.

[Morty]

I would have thought Seanez would be more valuable from the pen as a guy to get one or two outs, rather than another long man in Happ. Condrey can fill the long man role quite nicely, and Happ has not shown any ability to get a lefty out on call. Doesn't add up to me.

[clout]

AWH: You are correct. Thanks for the clarification.

[king myno]

Honestly, I like the idea of starting Jenkins tomorrow (barring a marvelous Werth game today, which would make it impossible). It's the guy's first playoffs ever, and that might give him a little juice. Plus, as that Baseball Prospectus article indicated, Billingsley's splits are quite large.

[kdon]

Jenkins?

I understand Billngsley's splits, but why not use Stairs? Jenkins shouldn't see anything other than a 5th or 15th inning PH appearance.

[king myno]

Perhaps its irrational and not stat-based by any means, but I hate Stairs. I can just foresee the SportsCenter highlights when Jenkins is the hero in his first playoff game in 11 seasons. Or is that just a fantasy brought about by delirium while I wait for this longest effing day ever to end?

[AWH the RBP]

"this longest effing day ever to end"

Boy, Your Majesty, you got that one right. I'm crawling out of my skin right now.

[jody reed]

can't wait to skip my thursday night 3 hour class for the 3rd straight time...damn phils and their thursday night games

[Lake Fred]

I have the radio on in the background and they just played a commercial for tonight's game on Fox TV. They say "Manny Ramirez, baseball's best bullpen, and Manager Joe Torre...." implying that the Dodgers have baseball's best bullpen. I now hate the Dodgers!

[Squonk1964]

HARRY KALAS, opening the Fox Coverage of the NLCS.