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« Game chat: Milwaukee tries to force a fifth game | Main | Beerleaguer for breakfast: Phillies hurry up and wait »

Sunday, October 05, 2008

Comments

Go Phils!
I'd like to say i'm surprised, but the Phils were the better team on every level. Bring on the Dodgers!

Hat's off to Blanton. He showed up big time.

Anyone with extra LA seats?

This is very cool.

gotta say i'm psyched. they got by milwaukee w/out playing their best baseball. the starters were the heroes, but the bats did just enough.

this team matches up very evenly with the dodgers. i see this one going 7. i already can't handle the stress...

Phillies-Dodgers, what better NLCS matchup could there be? It should be a fun series which should go 6 or 7 games.

I snarkily said to my friend when Burrell hit in the third inning, "The only drama here is whether Burrell will take a third strike or swing and miss for a third strike." To that point, he just didn't look like he even wanted to swing the bat. But what a thrill it was to watch he and Jimmy Rollins, the two guys who have been here the longest, both go deep and take this team to the next level.

Beat LA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Weitzel - the mad genius.

Despite his streakiness and struggles, you gotta love Pat the Bat!

Post season is most often all about pitching. If the Phillies get the kind of pitching they got in this series, they can beat the Dodgers.

Also nice to see Cholly bounce back with a smart game.

Stupist post of my career bench Burrell

i will be toasting with some kentucky bourbon tonight to mr. joe blanton.

btw, comcast sucks. who cares about the eagles, they lost, the phils clinched a nlcs birth and im looking at bigred repeat the same crap hes said for the last decade.

Slocs: How could you possibly tell?

i said yesterday i have seen enough of burrell. im glad i was wrong.

Pitching has been the story this week. And even though Ruiz has not been good with his bat, I believe he should get some credit for calling games. He has been behind the plate for some great pitching gems.

It's odd that the team with the 15th-best record in baseball poses a stiff challenge for the Phils. But I still like their chances. They'll have to hit a little better though.

Hey, I would have considered benching Burrell, too. The guy looked terrible until today. Ruiz goes without saying. He's a no-hit, excellent catcher.

They said in the broadcast that the decision to start Dobbs didn't come easy. I don't get that. What's so hard about it, Cholly?

I'm guessing the Dodgers go Lowe-Billingsley-Kuroda, although they could go Billingsley, who's their best pitcher, first.

All the regular season stats are irrelevant in the post season. The Dodgers are hot right now. If the Phils starters continue to pitch the way they've been pitching, the Phils have an excellent chance. Just don't pitch to Manny.

Who is the Dodgers 4th starter? It's either Maddux or Kershaw but I wonder who they would go with.

Slump or no slump, you don't bench one of your most dangerous power hitters in a playoff game. Again, Cholly made the right move (although I doubt he even considered benching PtB)

"It's odd that the team with the 15th-best record in baseball poses a stiff challenge for the Phils."

Yeah, but most of that record was compiled by a completely different team, one that was running Angel Berroa, Juan Pierre, and Andruw Jones out there every night.

dobbs went 2 for 3...he is most certainly the far better option vs. right handed pitching. When I saw the lineup today, I felt far better about the offense than yesterday, mostly because of dobbs and vic in the 2-hole.

Pat Burrell just asked Leslie Gudel why is she talking so loud. Leslie's response, this is a microphone, you have to talk loud.

And that define's Leslie's career.

Great series for the Phils.

Great starts by Hamels, Myers and Blanton.

Great relief from Lidge and Madson.

Timely hitting from Victorino, Werth, Burrell, Rollins and Dobbs.

Game 3 was what it was. A team at home desperate for a win. Factor in an ump with a questionable strike zone and some sloppy play, and you come up with a Milwaukee win.

The rest of the series, this team was clearly superior in just about every way.

Bring on the Dodgers!

I was wrong about Burrell. Thank goodness he wasn't benched in favor of Stairs.

I don't get why it's so hard to Charlie to start Dobbs. Dobbs defense at 3rd improved quite a bit this season, he's at least adequate there, and he's got the superior bat to Feliz against righties.

Bring on Manny, bring on Bowa, bring on L.A.!

It's nice that all 4 of the Dodgers' starters are right-handed. Dobbs should start every game of the series, although we all know he won't.

bap: That also means that Utley and Howard are likely to get at least 2 at bats per game against righties.

Utley could be a real key this series. He hit 355/459/645 against them in 37 plate appearances this year. He has GOT to better this series than he's been in the playoffs thus far.

Don't get me wrong, the Dodgers are a good team, but I'm not believing the national storyline that they're suddenly a juggernaut. They beat a Cubs team that flat out choked. Ryan Dempster couldn't throw a strike game 1, they made 3 errors in one inning game 2, and the bats tightened up. The Dodgers got lucky with that and that they played in an awful division.

Of course anything can happen in a 7 game series. If they pitch well they can win. But the same can be said with the Phillies. Bottom line is we have homefield, we're the better team and should be the favorites to go to the World Series.. which is pretty cool.

Dodgers not only add Manny and get to focus more on their 1-3 pitchers, but they have Furcal back. Having him take the most PA every game is a big step up from Juan Pierre or Kemp.

You know Feliz will start when Moyer pitches

I think the Dodgers will be the analyst consensus, FWIW.

One good thing is the presence of good LHP relievers on the Dodgers. The decision to split up Utley and Howard should be easy. Of course, there's also this Dobbs situation which is sure to frustrate. Manuel goes with the hot-hand and the results, so I have a good feeling he'll go with Dobbs in game 1.

Burrell should never start against right handers.

You can't deny the Dodgers resurgence, and you have two guys in Torre and Manny who know a little about playoff baseball.

2008: 3-1

2007: 0-3

1980: N/A

Just got tix to game 3 in LA! I'll be in the outfield "all you can eat" section trying to find some Phils fans. email me if you're going and want to meet up: rsg6 at lehigh.edu

should be a good series... the brew crew were beat with consistent pitching and a couple of clutch hits. Both will need to be consistent to take the NLCS -- looking for Chase to come through big... he's due.

Carson: Agreed on Dobbs. But it's pretty much guaranteed that Feliz will start the Hamels and Moyer games. If they split the games at least it's not the worst thing in the world.
I would like Burrell to bat third though. The Dodgers have very good righty relievers. We shouldn't let Torre allow his lefty relievers to look great too by facing Utley and Howard in a row.

How about the Phillies outfield production this series?

Victotyno

.357 BA, 3 2B, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 3 BB, .533 OBP, .785 SLG

Werth

.313 BA, 3 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 1 RBI, .313 OBP, .813 SLG

Burrell

.250 BA, 2 HR, 4 RBI, .357 OBP, .750 SLG


That's picking it up for your teammates on the right side of the infield.

In looking at the Dodgers roster, it appears they only have one lefty reliever in Joe Beimel. I'm guessing that means Charlie will stick with Utley and Howard back-to-back... and perhaps, rightfully so.

They desperately need Utley to show up. He's becoming an automatic out. Hopefully he'll turn it loose against LA's righties. Should be Phils in 6.

i posted it in the last thread but ill repeat it here.... congrats and beat the dodgers please

Just noticed the ALCS is on TBS while we're gonna be on FOX. That's annoying. I enjoyed the TBS announcers.

Life is good.

A full team effort is a great leading to the LA series.

Only 1 mistake by Cholly today (not having Romero ready), whoo hoo.

Utley may be the key v. LA. It was kind of frightening to see him try to reach base -- twice -- on phantom HBPs. The confidence is gone right now.

Well, that sure was fun.

It seems Pat Burrell got a good night's sleep and ate a healthful, nutritious breakfast.

I think Werth's sweet hit will be good for his head as we go forward.

I *heart* Jimmy Rollins, and-

Today Big Righty earned the right to be called by name in my house. Well done, Joe Blanton.

Finally, now that the series is over, I hope it's not out of line for me to say that I kind of dig Gagne's look. :)

Go Phils!

well going to work for that hour paid off. We now get to watch a long and brutal NLCS with the PHILLIES playing in it. This is going to be exciting.

phargo, until you made the Gagne comment, I was with you.

Gagne looks like a tired, old, drug-worn-ur hippie who smells.

But hey, beauty is in the eye of the beholder.

Beautiful win! Nice to see some clutch hitting and no clueless moments in the dugout! Rollins, Burrell, and Blanton all came up HUGE! Bring on LA!

Some nice supportive comments by those class acts over at Metsblog:


Comment by rustyjr
2008-10-05 16:02:37
DAMN THOSE PHILLIES DAMN EM TO HE-LL !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Comment by nastyslider
2008-10-05 16:05:54
YO FAWK THOSE PHILLIES!!!!!!!!!


Comment by rustyjr
2008-10-05 16:07:23
i hope one of those DODGER PITCHERS HAS THE BALLS TO THROW AT CHASE MUTLEY’S HEAD !!!

I miss those trolls...................no, wait.....

It's possible that too much My Morning Jacket has affected my taste. But still, it is nice to get the occasional break from the standard jock-with-some-hair-gel look.

That said, Manny's dreads irritate the heck out of me. Perhaps that makes me a hypcrite. At least Gagne's hat stays on.

Phargo, I'm with you on the Gagne/My Morning Jacket thing, but then again, I like Ryan Madson's Phillies circa. 1962 look.

Could the "fans" over at Metsblog be any more low-rent? I understand they have massive jealousy issues, but come on.

Pat The Bat coming through big time. Joe Blanton proving why they traded for him (and won't it be nice if he can pitch like this consistently next year). Jimmy Rollins setting the tone early. Pitching coming through all over the game. Gotta love it.

The Dodgers are going to be tougher than people right now are giving them credit for. Their pitching completely matched up with ours in the Cubs series. Manny is the man and they have dangerous hitters up and down the lineup. This isn't the same team that played .500 ball most of the season. They have Blake, who Torre said great things about, Manny and Furcal now.

We need the Chase Utley of April to show up badly. Hamels and Myers need to keep it up too. If so this series will be a battle.

I was very impressed with the victory celebration. They just seemed mature. I mean they were having their fun, but you saw them loosening up in a good way, but could tell they are not content the way they were with winning the division last year. I think this team is going is approaching things the right way now and that is a big thing.

I was at the Eagles game today, and my lord it was such a surreal feeling. Right as Portis rushed for the first down to ice the game, fans started filing out of their rows en masse to find one of the TV monitors that was playing the Phils game.
People were cheering, screaming, going crazy for the Phillies IMMEDIATELY AFTER AN INFURIATING EAGLES LOSS - I mean, we started a "let's go Phillies" chant inside the Linc!

For anyone who says Philadelphia is solely a "football city" and the Phils are a second-rate team, I wish they could have been at the Linc today to see the crowd. Every two seconds people would be asking the man sitting in front of us who had headphones on what the Phils score was, and to see the final three outs with everyone there was a pretty special experience to say the least.

Dave, I'm glad the Phils are finally getting some love in this city, but I wonder how much the green and cold weather will wipe people's memories clean before April hits?

I'm going to miss the TBS announcers, too, but I'm jumping for joy at the thought of no more Viagra/Frank TV commercials.

Who cares about Metsblog? We're in the NLCS Baby!!!!

I could definitely stand to hear some more of John Smoltz – if that guy's not in the booth after he retires, it's a crime. Very, very insightful.

But it's be nice if TBS' ad sales guys could go see more than two or three clients.

Smoltz is a hell of an announcer...Its debatable if he's a better announcer or pitcher actually. He's top at both.

I listened to the last half of the game on XM when I was coming back from hiking and got to listen to Bob Uecker do the final 3 innings...damn good announcer as I've always thought.

I've always thought of Philly as a sports town, not just a "football" town. It is a little easier to be insane over a sport that only has 8 home games, but just wait how the town goes insane if the Phils win the WS.

I've always thought of Philly as a sports town, not just a "football" town. It is a little easier to be insane over a sport that only has 8 home games, but just wait how the town goes insane if the Phils win the WS.

LA have been hitting LHP better than RHP this year. Do you think Joe Blanton gets a bump in front of Moyer in the upcoming series? He blitzed it today.

Good to hear the fans getting behind the Phillies at the Linc. I've heard one too many "E-a-g-l-e-s" chants at Phillies games, but actually come to think of it there were a lot fewer ones this year.

Can't say I'm sad the NLCS will be on Fox. TBS isn't broadcast on the University of Delaware campus, so I was pretty upset I couldn't watch the last two games. I never thought I'd need a radio to hear someone calling the game and so didn't bring one with me to school.

phargo (and whoever responded to her): I love hearing the MMJ references. They're my favorite band (except for maybe Yes, but Yes has long since become irrelevant). Was just listening to It Still Moves.

Someday I will remember to switch my name before I post.

It's been said that the Dodgers aren't the team that played .500 ball most of the season. That's true. They're the team that played 30-24, or .555 ball, since Manny came on. A 90-win team over 162 games. That's good, but we won 92. They're still not any better than us.

FWIW, ESPN has Hamels vs. Lowe listed for Game 1 and Myers vs. Billingsley for Game 2.

Pretty crazy that there are so many MMJ fans here. Anyone catch them at Penns Landing a few weeks ago?

Tray-
The Dodgers also played in a horrendous division where they were the only .500+ team. Imagine how many games the Phils would have won this year if they were in that division and would play San Diego, San Francisco, Colorado, and Arizona 19 times each this year: 95? 100? 105?

Either way it's clear that the Phils would have won several more games than the 92 they won playing in a relatively tough division, facing the Mets and Marlins 18 and 19 times each this past season.

About all this MMJ talk: if anyone else here listens to WIP over the web EVERY COMMERCIAL BREAK has a commercial promoting them. I've never listened to them--I've never even HEARD of them before these commercials--but I've become so annoyed by them now that I have vowed never to listen to them.

I can't wait for the end of the week for the NLCS to start; go Phils!!!

Tray: Yes and no. They did just get Furcal back as well, who batted .333/.467/.333 against the Cubs. He only played 36 games this season from opening day to early May during which he hit .357/.439/.573.

When we played them last they had Nomar at SS and Juan Pierre or Matt Kemp leading off.

I mean, we're down to the last two teams in the NL. Whoever it was going to be, the Cubs, Mets, or Dodgers, it was going to be a tough draw.

But Sophist - that goes both ways. Whereas when we played the Dodgers in September, Jeff Kent was hitting really well in front of Manny, now he has found a seat next to Pierre and Andruw on the bench in favor of Blake Dewitt at 2nd base.

It's a no-brainer that losing Kent's bat from the middle of their order made their lineup much less intimidating.

I think we're pretty evenly matched with this Dodgers team...I predict a 7 game series...

yep. diggity. True. I'd rather they had Kent than Furcal, though.

Has Saito lost velocity since he came back? Broxton closed the last game. They didn't have Kuo for the last series, and his presence or absence is big because he can really mow down guys for a few innings out of the bullpen.

Bullpen strength may be the biggest thing we have over them...though they do have a very low Team ERA, I think our pen is slightly better.

The Dodgers will have a big leg up if Kuo is on the roster. He shut the Phillies down.

I liked the TBS announcing crew too, especially Smoltz, although I disagreed with him on two points. First, he said Madson's success now is due to him throwing less changeups and more fastballs. IMO Madson's problems the past few season stem from throwing too many cut fastballs, sinkers, and curves. If he throws that 95 mph four-seamer all else he needs is that change to be effective, and that's what he's been doing.

Also, Smoltz was adamant that Sabathia's lackluster performance had nothing to do with pitching on three days rest. I believe he was alone in that opinion from all that I read from sports columnists the next day.

Still, the guy's entitled to his opinion and he's very insightful.

I tend to agree on the Sabathia comment by Smoltz. Guys pitched on 3 days rest for years without major issues. Sabathia was dominant several times on 3 days rest and then the playoffs come and he loses it...just like he lost it last year. Last year had nothing to do with short rest though. Maybe its just a mental thing with CC in the playoffs.

Could be a mental thing with Sabathia in the playoffs. But it seemed to be like he didn't have that bite on his breaking pitches. I believe that a big guy like that can pitch on three days rest no problem, but four times in a row and it's bound to catch up on you.

I'm sure this is a topic for another thread, but will the Phillies make any alterations to their roster before the start of the NLCS?

For example maybe add a pitcher for the bullpen - would having a 7-game series vs. a 5-game series necessitate a change in the strategy of constructing a roster? Or possibly just drop Happ/Condrey in favor of another set-up man, considering you probably don't need 2 long relievers...

After game 3, I'm wondering if Cholly was regretting taking Happ over Seanez. With the off days, they really don't need a different bullpen, but I wouldn't be shocked to see Seanez in and Happ out.

diggity: I agree that I'm not sure 2 long guys is a necessity with the off days. I'd probably swap Condrey for Seanez. But hopefully the series doesn't come down to either of those guys pitching in a meaningful situation.

Dodgers setups and closer, ERA+:
Kuo 207
Broxton 141
Saito 178

Phillies setups and closer, ERA+:
Madson 147
Romero 163
Lidge 229

Madson/Broxton are a wash, Kuo is better than Romero and Lidge is better than Saito. Overall edge to Phils since closer is the most important spot.

Dodgers SP, ERA+:
Lowe 136
Billingsley 141
Kuroda 119
Kershaw 104

Phillies SP, ERA+
Hamels 145
Myers 98
Moyer 120
Blanton 106

Hamels gets a slight edge over Lowe. Myers ERA+ is much improved in the second half, but he's still not as good as Billingsley. Moyer & Kuroda are a wash as are Blanton & Kershaw. I rate the starting pitching even.

So awesome to look at the upcoming schedule and see seven games blocked off against one team. Hope this series wraps up by next Saturday. I have tickets for Penn State/Michigan.

If Kuo is available (he has been hurt and was not on the roster in the NLDS), Cholly must split up Howard and Utley. He was lights out when he faced the Phillies.

Offensively, Dodgers are a better OB club than the Phillies, but power-wise there's no comparison. Huge edge to Phillies.

clout - Kuo didn't pitch a single inning in the NLDS. Not sure why, as I couldn't watch every inning and didn't hear anything about it.

I'll throw in the IR stats for the set-up men.

Romero: 58 IR, 16 IRS:: 28%
Madson: 37 IR, 13 IRS:: 35%

Broxton: 31 IR, 7 IRS:: 23%
Kuo: 20 IR, 2 IRS:: 10%

Notice how many fewer opportunities these Dodgers had to send someone else's runs home.

Kuo had a .204/.263/.303 against.
Broxton: .217/.298/.297.

Madson: .254/.306/.370
Romero: .197/.335/.313

AFish: I'm with you. Kuo's OPS against vs. LH: .557. He's almost as good against righties: .569. Don't want any parts of him.

With the Dodgers' starting rotation being entirely right-handed, a big key to this series will be the Phillies' ability to score early in games. As CJ pointed out in the last thread, a right-handed starter means that Howard & Utley will get to face a right-hander in at least 2 PAs per game -- and probably 3. They need to take advantage. Once the game goes to the bullpens, the Dodgers have the LOOGYs to completely neutralize these guys. We need to do our damage before the LOOGYs take over.

sophist: Kuo's fingers turned numb and bright red while he was warming up 9/27 and they've been running tests on him. His status is unknown.

BAP: Kerhsaw, their 4th starter, is a lefty.

BAP:
Kershaw is a lefty - he most likely will start game 4 in Los Angeles unless Torre goes with a 3-man rotation

The question I have re: the pitching matchups (both starting and relieving) is one of consistency. Myers and Madson don't look great based on overall 2008 numbers to their counterparts, but they have played very, very well for large portions of the season. And then very, very badly for other portions.

I think if we get the Myers and Madson (and Rollins) of the last few weeks, it's a wash or a slightly PHI advantage. If, in addition, we get Howard of the last few weeks and the right lineups (Dobbs), that advantage becomes larger. If Burrell, Utley or Werth show, the Phils are a much better team. Based on the season as a whole, I can see the merits of either argument: that things are coming together or that they are not.

clout - thanks.

And just thought I'd add to the conversation about Kuo:
Howard/Utley/Burrell/Rollins/Werth/Victorino are a combined 0-12 against him...

sophist: Well put. Another key is the Phillies pitchers should not be afraid to throw strikes (except to Manny). There is no one in their lineup (except for Manny) who is scary or has a lot of power. But there are guys who have good strike zone judgment and will take a walk. If Phillies pitchers start missing or try to be too fine, guys like Martin & Furcal & Ethier will happily walk and that's when things get sticky.

My plan: Throw strikes to everyone in the lineup (except Manny).

And if Cholly starts Feliz against a RHP, he should have a brain scan.

Against LHB

Lowe:.251/.293/.342, 56 SO, 26 BB, 3 HR (of 14), 23 2B (of 36)
Billingsley: .274/.369/.391, 83 SO, 50 BB, 5 HR (of 14)
Kuroda: .260/.306/.399, 43 SO, 22 BB, 9 HR (of 13)

Not surprisingly, they all pitch better at home. Lowe has the most severe difference.

Lowe Home: .206/.242/.300 -- 2.30 ERA
Lowe Away: .292/.334/.413 -- 4.42 ERA

Kuroda's SLG is almost .1 higher away than home. Billingsley's BA goes from .232 to .270 and his SLG from .342 to .391.


I know I'm being like Debbie Downer here but keep in mind that Derek Lowe has owned the Phillies forever. I cant ever remember the Phils getting to him. Thankfully Hamels is matched up against him

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