Tonight, Phillies fans experienced what this series has looked like from the other side, witnessing an ugly, poorly played loss from start to finish.
It started with Jamie Moyer, who struggled with Brian Runge’s strike zone right out of the chute. Moyer took the loss, lasting just four innings and walking three and letting up two first-inning runs against a patient Brewers lineup. Moyer’s problem was that he wasn’t throwing first-pitch strikes. After two miserable games, the Brewers’ offense decided they were going to make the opposing pitcher work for it. By the time Moyer figured it out, he was at 60 pitches.
It ended even worse. Down 4-1 with the bases loaded and nobody out in the ninth, Pedro Feliz grounded into a double play on the very first pitch from Solomon Torres, shades of the approach Milwaukee had the first two games of the series. On the play, Shane Victorino was called for interference at second, and Ryan Howard, who scored on the play, was forced back to third and the run was taken off the board.
Nevertheless, each team had chances. The Brewers probably had more. It was a trap game, and the Brewers, losers of seven straight to the Phils, were due for one. The Brewers were focused at home, the Phils went into a shell, and after Moyer was taken out, the game wasn’t entirely managed with a Game 3 victory in mind. At least that's how it seemed. Otherwise, several of Charlie Manuel's moves made no sense.
That’s it for the summary. For a hint at what I'm also thinking about, Beerleaguer will go to bed searching for meaning as it relates to a certain left fielder's past, present and future.















Weitzel: No RBI on a double-play, so Pete Happy didn't miss out on anything.
Posted by: AFish | Saturday, October 04, 2008 at 11:04 PM
I always, always forget that. Three things you can always count on. Death. Taxes. Forgetting that rule.
Posted by: J. Weitzel | Saturday, October 04, 2008 at 11:06 PM
Bye Pat. It was a hell of a run. Enjoy whereever you end up.
Posted by: NEPP | Saturday, October 04, 2008 at 11:07 PM
At least we're not playing like the Cubs...Its starting to look like a Dodgers sweep.
Posted by: NEPP | Saturday, October 04, 2008 at 11:09 PM
That ninth inning was just abysmal. Feliz comes up and swings at the first pitch, just as I'm sure so many were fearing, and of course hits it right at Hall to bail out a shaky Torres - but probably even worse was the way Victorino barreled into second and made the whole team look bad with that reprehensible, bush league play. The rest of the game was horribly played, but it would have left a far better taste in everyone's mouths just to have gone 1-2-3 in that last frame. I'm not at all impressed with the way this team has played in the series. It rode great starting pitching and relied on feeble clutch performances by the opponent in the first two games. The removal of these two elements exposed the Phillies as the post-season frauds they've probably been all along. They look only slightly more comfortable in the spotlight than Milwaukee. Whoever wins this round is almost surely toast in the next one.
Posted by: RSB | Saturday, October 04, 2008 at 11:11 PM
i dont want to say this but is tomorrow kinda a must win game?
Posted by: Sam | Saturday, October 04, 2008 at 11:13 PM
The Phils win it in Game 4 or its over.
Beating a rested Sabathia twice will be a tall order, especially if the Phils aren't hitting the ball.
Posted by: Matt | Saturday, October 04, 2008 at 11:14 PM
No because we can beat Sabathia in our park with Hamels on the mound. Sabathia sucked last year in the playoffs and sucked in Game 2...He's not a machine, he's a man. And we have Rocky on our side.
Posted by: NEPP | Saturday, October 04, 2008 at 11:15 PM
I don't know about Moyer struggling with Runge's strike zone. The camera caught Moyer giving a virtual tip of the cap to Runger in the dugout after he was lifted for a PH.
That being said, the 3,7 and 8 spots are killing us.
Posted by: BV2ST | Saturday, October 04, 2008 at 11:18 PM
I didn't go all through the last thread, and I'm sure this was all said, but some questionable tactics from Manuel once again. And not just in retrospect, but as it was happening. Using Stairs to pinch-hit in the fifth inning was a head-scratcher. Moyer had thrown a lot of pitches, but he had gotten his game together by then and he probably could have gone another couple of innings. Instead, he puts Condrey in, and he was awfully fortunate to just give up one run in his wretched inning of work. Look: that Feliz-Ruiz hole was lethal all night and there's no way Manuel should have been in a position where he had no further choice but to let them *both* hit consecutively with the game on the line in the ninth inning. Just shouldn't have happened.
Moreover, the decision to waste a roster spot on Happ showed up when they left Eyre in to face Kendall with men on 1st/3rd. He still could have used Madson there, but the main point was that he was short a right-hander. You want a long man - you've already got one. That would be Condrey. You want lefties, you've already got two. Might as well have given the rosetr spot to Mike Cervenak.
Posted by: RSB | Saturday, October 04, 2008 at 11:30 PM
JW, No RBIs are awarded on double plays so even if they hadn't made an awful call on the interference Feliz doesn't get an RBI.
Boy, I sure felt like you had to turn it off with Bases loaded and no one on with Feliz and Ruiz coming up. You knew one of them would GIDP.
Phillies doing what they have all post season in 2008 and 2007, can't hit with 2 outs and runniers in scoring position. Let's face it, Utley got lucky in game 1, it should have been a fly out. The fact is here are 2 out hits with runners in scoring position:
Game 2 2007: Rollins
Game 2 2008: Victorino
Never should have pulled Moyer in a 2-0 game and inserting Condrey! But doesn't matter if Phils don't hit.
Bad approach all game, too many first pitch swings, especially Feliz in the 9th with bases loaded and Why Dobbs doesn't get a start, he is a proven clutch and big game hitter. Phils need hitting and starting Ruiz, Burrell and Feliz is creating automatic outs 5,7-9.
I'm flabbergasted why Coste doesn't get a start, Ruiz is a proven choke with runner's in scoring position.
Also, Victorino should be hitting 5th not Mr. Small Burrell. With 2 out tonight, Vic hit a screamer but Hardy made a good catch. Burrell's best at bat this post season and the last month was getting a walk.
I'll also say it, Utley is Mr. Small when it matters, look at last month during past 3 years and post season 2007 and 2008.
With all that said, I expect a brilliant start from Blanton and Rollins, Victorino and Howard to power the Phils into the NLCS
Posted by: Slocs | Saturday, October 04, 2008 at 11:38 PM
RSB, I can't disagree more about the Victorino play. Granted it didn't matter, but it was clear he was ducking and getting out of the way, he just went standing up, the same thing big post season guys like Jeter, etc. do. It was an awful call. If he had knocked him over and broken up the double play, then I could see a call. With that said, it doesn't matter, Feliz was first ball swinging on a new pitcher and with Ruiz coming up, you knew it was over.
I think you have to start Taguchi instead of Burrell, he is a provem post season big, clutch player. Burrell is provem big game joke and using him in the 5 hole was killing us during the last month and continues to kill us in the post season.
Posted by: Slocs | Saturday, October 04, 2008 at 11:45 PM
slocs - forgetting Victorino's grand slam with two outs already?
Posted by: joe l | Saturday, October 04, 2008 at 11:48 PM
Also,TBS has been throwing that 2-out run stat up all series, isn't somewhere near 7 out of 8 runs?
Posted by: joe l | Saturday, October 04, 2008 at 11:49 PM
"Ducking and getting out the way"? My ass. He had no intention of getting out of the way. He was trying to take Counsell out. What, you mean to say he just suddenly realized, oh whoops, I forgot to slide, better duck! No. The umps got that call right. Victorino is both of these things: a sparkplug and an idiot.
Posted by: RSB | Saturday, October 04, 2008 at 11:53 PM
vics duck was half hearted and was accompanied with a hip check
Posted by: redbeard | Saturday, October 04, 2008 at 11:54 PM
could use september howard tomorrow to drive in a few worthless rbis
Posted by: redbeard | Saturday, October 04, 2008 at 11:56 PM
Just hit Suppon tomorrow and everything will be fine. Nothing against Ruiz, but I hope we see Coste in the lineup.
And we better see Dobbs.
Posted by: J.R. King | Sunday, October 05, 2008 at 12:17 AM
Joe, I referenced Game 2 2008: Victorino. The only other 2 out hit with RISP is Rollins in game 2 2007. Those are the 2 out hits. Yes Utley in game 1 but I view that as an error, not a clutch hit.
Posted by: Slocs | Sunday, October 05, 2008 at 12:37 AM
RSB - you aren't going to convince me and I can't convince you.
Funny that Clout never contacted me about going to Phillies playoff game, which I was taking him to since I lost bet. I waited until Tuesday night, for such a fan, it amazes me that he didn't want to go.
John
Posted by: Slocs | Sunday, October 05, 2008 at 12:42 AM
Wow. Dodgers sweep. Manny is the real MVP
Posted by: GoPhilsGo | Sunday, October 05, 2008 at 01:15 AM
I want Dobbs as well, but I have a feeling the lineup will be what we have seen.
Posted by: Ben Keeler | Sunday, October 05, 2008 at 02:19 AM
I agree with every word of RSB's post. The Dodgers must be licking their chops, because the Phillies have not been at all impressive this series; it's just that the Brewers have been even worse. Inept offense has been the Phillies' Achilles heel all season long and, sure enough, it rears its head in the post-season just like last year. And we don't even have the excuse that we've faced good pitching.
The Phillies' offensive problems have been analyzed and re-analyzed. They have too many strikeouts. They have too many streak hitters. They have too many power hitters & not enough high average hitters. They have too many one-dimensional players who can't hit left-handed or right-handed pitching. I'm starting to think maybe the problem is really a lot simpler: you can't have 3 automatic outs at the end of your lineup & expect to maintain any kind of offensive consistency. We have some hugely productive offensive players in our lineup but, like all players, they have their slumps and weaknesses. As a result, on any given day, about 2 to 3 of our key players are likely to be fairly useless. That's probably true of just about every team. Problem is, we also have 2 guys plastered at the end of our lineup, plus the pitcher, who are ALWAYS useless. That puts a huge amount of pressure on the remaining 3 or 4 guys to be productive. If those 3 or 4 guys don't hit, or don't hit at the right time, we score 2 to 3 runs. That has happened way too much this year & it will ultimately be our undoing in the next round, when I expect to get absolutely crushed by the Dodgers.
Posted by: bay_area_phan | Sunday, October 05, 2008 at 02:38 AM
6/16 - Hits and at-bats by the first four hitters in the Phillies line-up in Game 3
3/19 - Hits and at-bats by the rest of the hitters in the line-up.
They finished the night 1-for-11 with RISP.
that pretty much sums things up nicely. Hopefully they get to Suppan early, since we cant get to their bullpen at all, otherwise its CC v Hamels for it all.
Posted by: Ira | Sunday, October 05, 2008 at 03:56 AM
guys, come on. Criticism after today is well warranted, especially the absolute, mind-numbing lack of clutch hitting and alarming amount of guys left stranded on base - but we are up 2 to 1 against a very pesky wild card team, and they are going to win the series. I think the Dodgers will pose a dangerous foe in the next series, but we have a legit shot at winning and going to the WS. Let's not jump off the band wagon after one crummy loss!
Posted by: Brandon | Sunday, October 05, 2008 at 04:51 AM
I only caught the first few innings and the box score from last night, but I have to agree with RSB on several points.
Lifting Moyer seemed odd.
Seanez should have made the roster over Condrey or Happ - don't need two long men.
Leaving Eyre in was a major mistake.
Werth should not be hitting second against a RHP?
Listen, the team can't hit, and that's not Manuel's fault, but as much as we love some of the things he does, he is just a *terrible* in-game tactical manager.
Final point, I keep reading that the "middle of the order" has been killing the team, which is just false; Howard has been fine.
Burrell has been a complete disaster and should be benched, but really, when is the golden boy going to start taking some criticism. I love all the stuff about Chase's hustle, but the guy is coming up very small again.
Posted by: kdon | Sunday, October 05, 2008 at 05:58 AM
Well, all they did promise us was that they'd do better than last year, so mission accomplished.
And at least we're not Cubs fans.
Posted by: EastFallowfield | Sunday, October 05, 2008 at 06:56 AM
Today isn't a "must win", but it's damn near close, and we need every bit of offense that we can scrounge up. Dobbs better be starting at 3rd base and I'd go as far as to plug Stairs into LF for the abysmal Burrell. Not winning today means a well rested and redemption-minded CC back in Philly on Tuesday...not a scenario I'd be looking forward to. Blanton needs to pitch well, but the offense has got to stop shitting the bed for anything positive to happen in the playoffs this year.
Posted by: GM-Carson | Sunday, October 05, 2008 at 07:10 AM
A lineup proposal:
J-Roll
Vic
Utley
Howard
Burrell
Dobbs
Werth
Ruiz
Posted by: kdon | Sunday, October 05, 2008 at 07:22 AM
Kdon- nice proposal, but I'd like this today:
1. Rollins
2. Utley
3. Victorino
4. Howard
5. Werth
6. Dobbs
7. Stairs
8. Ruiz or Coste
Posted by: Yikes! | Sunday, October 05, 2008 at 07:25 AM
Yikes,
There are two reason I wouldn't start Dobbs and Stairs:
1 - This leaved the bench pretty weak for PH, and the back of the Brewer pen leans RH. I'd like to keep one of them in reserve to PH for Ruiz or the pitcher.
2 - Suppan probably isn't going more than 5 or 6 today, and Sveum has plenty of lefties, so you'll probably have to PH for both long before the end of the game.
I don't want to get caught with a shallow bench again in what will probably be a close game.
Posted by: kdon | Sunday, October 05, 2008 at 07:35 AM
Howard, Utley, and Burrell are a combined 4-28 (.143) this series, that's pathetic.
Posted by: Yikes! | Sunday, October 05, 2008 at 07:37 AM
>That being said, the 3,7 and 8 spots are killing us.<<
Oh, yeah, and don't forget the 5 spot. That spot's been killing us since July.
Posted by: Jim J | Sunday, October 05, 2008 at 07:37 AM
Starting Feliz might cause death threats for Manuel, and Burrell looks like Mendoza Line Burrell of '07 right now, henche starting both Dobbs and Stairs. Burrell could be used to pinch hit later, and so could Feliz if necessary.
Posted by: Yikes! | Sunday, October 05, 2008 at 07:39 AM
Great quote from Charlie-
"I think we're fortunate to be up 2-1," Manuel said. "I mean, we've got to hit. We've got to score runs. We're supposed to hit, and when we don't, yeah, I'm concerned about it. But I don't know what you can do right now, especially this time of year in the playoffs. Actually, that's what the playoffs are all about; you don't have time to go into slumps or go bad or anything. You've got to be playing good. In order for us to go to the World Series, we've got to hit."
Posted by: GM-Carson | Sunday, October 05, 2008 at 07:40 AM
From Victorino's postseason blog-
As for my ninth-inning play on Craig Counsell, it wasn't dirty. If that was the case, I would've just bowled him over. That wasn't my intention. I was trying to get him to throw the ball off my chest, or my helmet, something. When the ball was hit, I said to myself, "That's almost an automatic double play." He hit the ball so well and Billy made a good play. I was just trying to get something to happen. I was trying to stay out of a double play. It didn't work.
Posted by: Yikes! | Sunday, October 05, 2008 at 07:42 AM
Another take on the offensive performances from these teams:
Milwaukee Brewers extra base hits: 3
Jayson Werth extra base hits: 4
Posted by: EastFallowfield | Sunday, October 05, 2008 at 07:47 AM
"Howard, Utley, and Burrell are a combined 4-28 (.143) this series, that's pathetic."
This is unfair to Howard. He's 2-8, while the other two are 2-20.
He also has 4 walks, and a .500 OBP. He's not the problem.
Posted by: kdon | Sunday, October 05, 2008 at 07:55 AM
He's not the problem, but he is part of the problem.
Posted by: Yikes! | Sunday, October 05, 2008 at 08:08 AM
kdon - One additional criticism I did not see in your list was why in the world was Ruiz left in to bat as the tying run in the ninth - is Coste hurt? He's still listed on the roster so why wouldn't Charlie use him then? Anyway, I like Yikes! lineup, except Burrell will get the start over Stairs - he's hitting .455 since 2003 against Suppan. But maybe dropping Pat to 7th would wake him up.
Posted by: Verdeforce | Sunday, October 05, 2008 at 08:14 AM
Good Morning.
Urgh.
I hope Big Righty is up to the task today.
I can't even bear to talk about the (lack of) offense. There is one player who I have never understood why he is treated like the 2nd coming of JC himself when the fellow is a big postseason zero and can just as easily be replaced by the likes of Tad Iguchi for a month with no detriment to the team...oh wait, did I give it away?
Sorry, I am grumpy this morning. As you can see, I even slept in.
Have a good day, and Go Phils!
Posted by: phargo | Sunday, October 05, 2008 at 08:17 AM
As for the rest of our guys against Supppan - there are a lot of guys with good numbers, like JRoll, whose batting .385 while facing Suppan the most of any Phil (26 at bats) since '03. Also since then, Werth is batting .583 against him, Vic - .571, Utley - .500, Bruntlett - .429. The two guys who have 0fers against Suppan - both Ruiz and Dobbs are 0 for 8. So maybe we'll see Cose, but I now suspect we'll see Feliz as well.
Posted by: Verdeforce | Sunday, October 05, 2008 at 08:26 AM
"He's not the problem, but he is part of the problem."
Well, he's definitely not the solution, but I think Utley and Burrell deserve much more of the blame.
I just think it's misleading to throw his okay 2-8 with 4 walks in with Burrell and Utley.
For example, you could say that ROLLINS, Utley and Burrell have combined to go 6-32. Or that VIC, Utley and Burrell are 6-30. Anyone you throw in there with PtB and Utley is going to look bad.
Utley is a Mike Cameron misplay away from being completely useless so far.
Posted by: kdon | Sunday, October 05, 2008 at 08:28 AM
Looking at those numbers plus the lack of familiarity the Brewers have with Blanton definitely gives the Phils an adge. Only Ray Durham has more than 6 at bats against our big righty from Kentucky, although he is batting .529 against him, so Joe needs to learn to be careful with him.
Posted by: Verdeforce | Sunday, October 05, 2008 at 08:30 AM
kdon - I agree with you on Utley, but if it wasn't for that misplay, we'd probably be down 2-1 and not up 2-1, so the fact that he did hit it as hard as he did when it mattered has to be given some credence.
Posted by: Verdeforce | Sunday, October 05, 2008 at 08:33 AM
I feel much better about our chances in Game 4 than in Game 3, but just to ensure there is no Weitzel jinx - how about creating a game 4 graphic for the game chat today? You had one for the wins in Games 1 & 2, but nothing for last night....
Posted by: Verdeforce | Sunday, October 05, 2008 at 08:43 AM
You're right Verde, that's why I qualified the statement.
He hit it well, in a big spot, but Cameron makes that play 9 out of 10 times.
Posted by: kdon | Sunday, October 05, 2008 at 08:49 AM
be fair to howard--they've been pitching around him all series, and i can recall one AB where he was put in a bad count by taking a truly atrocious pitch for a strike. on the other hand, we've seen vic get an IBB so the brewers could pitch to chase....who thought we'd ever see that?? so i'm with kdon on the criticism of utley in this series. he needs to show up today.
and, please, enough of pedro feliz starting at 3b! he platooned them throughout september--why is cholly messing with something that won for them down the stretch?
Posted by: bathtubhippo | Sunday, October 05, 2008 at 08:49 AM
Based on the numbers, I think we'd be more likely to see Bruntlett at 3rd rather than Dobbs - anyway, I'm more anxious for Coste getting a start in the catcher platoon than anything happening at 3rd.
Posted by: Verdeforce | Sunday, October 05, 2008 at 08:53 AM
Final comment from me until game time - I don't mind that we didn't sweep. That was a horrible feeling last year, and I actually feel bad for the Cubs fans, even if they were way too cocky coming in to the playoffs. Hopefully, the Phils wrap it up today, but both of the AL series get extended so no other fans have to go through what we did last year and what those poor miserable north-siders are going through now.
Posted by: Verdeforce | Sunday, October 05, 2008 at 08:56 AM
WHY DOESN'T DOBBS START AGAINST RIGHTHANDERS ANYMORE?
Posted by: johnnysanz3 | Sunday, October 05, 2008 at 08:58 AM
And seriously how can someone get so hot for periods of time and be so terrible for the same periods of time. How does it even happen? I just don't get it.
Posted by: johnnysanz3 | Sunday, October 05, 2008 at 09:03 AM
I don't know if Cameron catches that ball nine times out of ten since he misplayed another one in that game or the next one.
Maybe it's 8 of 10. Or 7 of 10.
I know only one gloaty Cubs fan. Last I saw him was Tuesday, when he said "Maybe this year you'll win a game in the playoffs." Ha.
Posted by: EastFallowfield | Sunday, October 05, 2008 at 09:10 AM
Wow East F,
I like to argue about a lot of things, but I'll pass on whether Cameron makes that catch 8 or 9 times!
Point is he normally makes it.
Posted by: kdon | Sunday, October 05, 2008 at 09:15 AM
NEPP: Did the Cubs play bad or is the Dodgers pitching on a roll?
Posted by: clout | Sunday, October 05, 2008 at 09:29 AM
I don't think Cameron at 35 is the same outfielder he was at 28.
Of course, he catches it, there's no guarantee the rest of the game plays out to a 1-0 Brewer win.
Posted by: EastFallowfield | Sunday, October 05, 2008 at 09:39 AM
I agree with RSB and kdon on Manuel's in-game decisions: Lifting Moyer after he'd settled down, wasting pinch-hitters early, leaving Eyre in against righties, not hitting for Ruiz. Bad, bad, bad.
Still, the matchups today favor the Phillies. Suppan is a junkballer and if the hitters are patient he's very hittable. If Blanton gives us his usual 5 IP and 2 or 3 runs, I'll take it. If this team can't score more than 3 runs off Jeff Suppan and the Brewers bullpen it doesn't deserve to go on.
A loss today would put the Phillies in the same spot as the Red Sox after Buckner lost Game 6 of the series against the Mets in 1986. There was one more game to play, but the Sox were already dead.
Posted by: clout | Sunday, October 05, 2008 at 09:45 AM
EF: Cameron misplayed the ball because he didn't read the wind correctly. He broke in, then had to reverse. Without the wind it's a routine fly ball and Cameron catches it 999 out of 1000. He didn't miss it because of his physical skills.
Posted by: clout | Sunday, October 05, 2008 at 09:49 AM
Regarding Victorino's crash landing into the vicinity of second base: scarcely a word was written about it in either local paper this morning, and no quotes were offered other than Manuel positing that "sometimes they don't call that". I'm fairly stunned by the lack of controversy. Not only was it a dirty play, but quite obviously it was an illegal play, one which cost the team a run and baserunner positions, and Victorino ought to be recanting his stupidity instead of defending it. How many times do we see it - the guy has some of the worst baseball sense you'll ever see. Joe Simpson on TBS called it an 'unprofessional play' and added that that it was lucky that someone didn't get hurt. When Carlos Ruiz did the same thing against San Diego last season, that team was incensed. I don't really understand why Milwaukee wouldn't take similar exception.
Posted by: RSB | Sunday, October 05, 2008 at 09:50 AM
Whining about the ump is a losers game. He umped for both teams.
Vic's "slide" was irrelevant to the outcome. What is relevant is that he is the only guy on the team who has shown any ability to hit with RISP.
The hitters (aside from Vic) have sucked. A stray hit here and there doesn't get it done. Without a few lucky breaks we could be scoreless for 27 innings. Last night it was Werth's "triple," and Howard's cue shot of an RBI. Did anyone expect that our "studs" Utley/Howard/Burrell would be able to score Werth from 3rd with no outs. I thought it was a 50-50 proposition at best.
Cholly has been particularly atrocious. Condrey has no business being in a close playoff game. Eyre has no business pitching against righties. You don't bat your only relisble hitter 6th. If Happ isn't going to pitch why is he on the roster? Dobbs is too good of a hitter to sit for a team that aint hitting.
The brilliance of Hamels and Myers are the only reason we're still playing. We need Blanton to pitch the game of his life in a few hours, or a 2nd brilliant outing from Hamels in a few days.
Posted by: curt | Sunday, October 05, 2008 at 10:20 AM
Victorino did what most players should do to try and stop the DP - Not sure RSB why you are so adamant on being after Victorino? Are you angry that phils did not get another run, thats the only difference in the end result. I give the guy lots of credit for at least trying to do something, even though it didn't work, but like I said it had no bearing on this game.
Posted by: fljerry | Sunday, October 05, 2008 at 10:22 AM
Not that I have much confidence in the offensive performance this series - especially against that bullpen - but the Phils did have 9 hits and left 10 on in game 2. They had 16 baserunner that game. Phils even managed 9 hits last night. The big difference? They failed to work a single walk all game.
Posted by: Sophist | Sunday, October 05, 2008 at 10:29 AM
My serious thoughts (I know; what's up with that?) on last night's and today's games.
1) No, Sam. Today is not must win. Sabathia would be going yet again on short rest and would be pressing because of The At Bat etc.
2) I understand Chollie's replacement of Moyer. Moyer had thrown 90 pitches; another inning would take him over 100 easily. And since Runge continued to have a nebulous strike zone he was not going to gain effectiveness for that one inning. He also might be available, should it come to this, to pitch in relief on his "side day." (I'm not sure that works out, though. I kinda think he'd still need one more day off.)
3) I am optimistic about all the hitters today. I have to believe that they can see the possibility of it slipping away, so they'll be focused, but with two games to win one will not be too tight. There were a lot of shots hit right at people. Those could easily fall today. And I do not think that they'll be overmatched by Suppan. His lifetime numbers against the Phils are astoundingly bad.
4) I'm not optimistic about Blanton, but I never have been. I just think that, when the engine is firing, our offense is much better than theirs.
5) I'm not going to even think about LAD. The best that can be said there is that, if it can be pushed to seven games, we get four in our bandbox, which definitely plays to our strengths, versus three at their polo field, which plays to theirs.
Posted by: Andy | Sunday, October 05, 2008 at 10:34 AM
Andy: Sabathia would be on 4 days rest. He pitched on Thursday and Game 5 would be on Tuesday (10/7).
Posted by: Durbinator | Sunday, October 05, 2008 at 11:08 AM
I agree with clout: if they don't win today, they're dead meat in Game 5. Sabathia is not going to have a terrible game two times in a row.
I think we'll see neither good nor bad Joe Blanton today. More likely we'll see average Joe Blanton, who pitches 6 innings and allows 3 runs. Against a mediocre Jeff Suppan, the Phillies SHOULD win if Blanton gives them that type of performance.
If bad Blanton does show up, however, Cholly can't let the game get away from us. Admittedly, it is difficult - if not impossible -- to distinguish between a bad first inning and the early seeds of a bad outing altogether. If this were the regular season, the manager would have to give Blanton the benefit of the doubt and presume it's the former. In the post-season, and with another fully rested starting pitcher on your roster, I think Cholly has to err on the side of pulling Blanton too soon rather than too late. With the way the Phillies have been hitting, this game cannot be permitted to become a 4-0 Brewers lead.
Posted by: bay_area_phan | Sunday, October 05, 2008 at 11:22 AM
Give Hamels some credit if it comes to Game 5. I have little confidence in Blanton -- although he's a RHP and this team just can't handle them -- but it's on the offense today so long as Blanton just keeps them in the game (5-6 IP, 3 R or less.) This is a friendlier field for our pitch to contact guy.
Blanton's last 11 starts: 4-0, 62.2 IP, 3.73 ERA, 1.318 WHIP, 1.74 K/BB.
Blanton against RHB 2008: .286/.355/.444
Blanton against RHB career: .271/.323/.423
Kentucky Joe actually has a reverse split.
Brewers 2008 against RHP: .246/.317/.421
Brewers 2008 RHB v. RHP: .242/.301/.412
Suppan has an 87 ERA+ and a 1.5 WHIP this year. He's Kyle Kendrick without the severe splits (.869 OPS against RHB, .821 against LHB.) The Phils can't be beat by a guy who allows 15.7% HR/FB this year.
Suppan in Sept. (5 GS): 0-3, 21.1 IP, 8.44 ERA, 1.51 WHIP.
How would you feel about your season resting on this man? Blanton's been good. He just needs to keep them in the game, and let the bats take care of a guy who's shouldn't be on an MLB roster.
Posted by: Sophist | Sunday, October 05, 2008 at 11:30 AM
Thanks, Sophist, that post and a waffle with berries has cheered me up a bit. Now a little nap and I might actually be in a decent frame of mind by noon (Central). I sure hope the Phillies will be "on" today.
Go Phils!
Posted by: phargo | Sunday, October 05, 2008 at 11:40 AM
More bickering on Cameron: A younger, faster player can overcome misjudging a line drive.
Posted by: EastFallowfield | Sunday, October 05, 2008 at 11:49 AM
Lineups are posted, and Dobbs is starting - alright!
Rollins
Victorino
Utley
Howard
Burrell
Werth
Dobbs
Ruiz
Blanton
Cameron
Durham
Braun
Fielder
Hardy
Hart
Counsell
Kendall
Suppan
Let's go Phils!!
Posted by: diggitydave | Sunday, October 05, 2008 at 11:50 AM
I think Dobbs will start today. Cholly tends to start Feliz behind Moyer and Hamels no matter what. Cholly also tends to go to Dobbs when the offense in struggling.
Posted by: AFish | Sunday, October 05, 2008 at 11:51 AM
If I am not mistaken - a player can come in standing up but can not make any effort to block the thrown ball (like raising his arms) which I have seen called prior. What Victorino did was come in standing but continue on after leaving bag and run into second baseman. I give him lots of credit for at least trying something even though it did not work out. Most if not all will either slide or run out of base path not to be hit by thrown ball. Victorino wanted to get hit (at least thats what he said)
Posted by: fljerry | Sunday, October 05, 2008 at 11:52 AM
I'm happy with Dobbs starting today, but I would probably have split Burrell/Werth by inserting Dobbs in the 6 hole.
Both Burrell and Werth are liable to struggle against a right-hander like Jeff Suppan (especially Pat, who looks completely lost and useless at the plate) and I think it would be benficial to have a catalyst like Dobbs in the middle, splitting the righties.
Posted by: diggitydave | Sunday, October 05, 2008 at 11:55 AM
So Phils go S-S-L-L-R-R-L-R. Clearly this lineup wasn't constructed with handedness in mind. Love Vic #2, though. At this point, I'd almost prefer: Vic-Utley-Rollins-Howard-Burrell-Dobbs-Werth.
Posted by: Sophist | Sunday, October 05, 2008 at 12:02 PM
Burrell against Suppan: .429/.571/.952 (28 PA).
Wow.
Rollins: .333/.385/.542 (26 PA)
Utley: .474/.500/.632 (20 PA)
Werth: .571/.625/1.000 (8 PA)
Here's a great Feliz stat. In 22 career PA against Suppan he's .273/.273/.500. 6 hits, 3 XBH, 2 GIDP, 0 BB.
Posted by: Sophist | Sunday, October 05, 2008 at 12:05 PM
A note from BP.com: Madson's K/BB is 20/1 in his last 16+ IP. Suppan's RA is 7.50 in 12 career starts against the Phils. Most of the game preview concerns Suppan's lucrative innings in the 2006 NLCS.
Posted by: Sophist | Sunday, October 05, 2008 at 12:08 PM
very frustrating last night the Phillies did hit Bush hard. Too bad the balls were hit right at defenders
Posted by: KoolEarl | Sunday, October 05, 2008 at 12:22 PM