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« Phils ride early lead, hold on to beat Dodgers 8-5 | Main | Game chat: Moyer, Kuroda duel at Chavez Ravine »

Sunday, October 12, 2008

Comments

The Phillies have announced that Charlie Manuel and Shane Victorino will not miss any games to deaths in the family.

Tonight could be a real statement game, in that it's in LA with Moyer pitching and the opportunity to go to 3-0 in the series which is nearly uncomebackable (I know I just made up that word). Manny has owned Moyer in the past, seriously owned, owned like Moyer has Man-Ram branded on his ass owned), but I have faith in Moyer the Destroyer.

Go Phils!

I'm worried about Moyer tonight. I think against a team down 2-0, with a day off to rest and prepare, he will struggle like he did in Milwaukee.

I think he owes a lot of his success to exploiting the grind of the season and the expectations of his opponents. So my worries aren't necessarily about him as they are the Dodgers -- I think they'll be ready tonight.

I feel its gone to be a good game in favor of the Phillies. Score probably gone to 6-2. With rest I would think Moyer would pitch better.

they should make eaton buy the car with his stolen millions and drive it down to the rally tonight to be destroyed.

anyone have stats on moyer pitching on 6 days rest?

4 starts this year, red. 23.1 IP, 11 R/8 ER, 1.125 WHIP.

But he's done it ~70 times in his career. Looking at it from year to year, there's no consistency in his numbers on 6 days rest.

4 times this year, Moyer pitched on 6+ days of rest. He's got a 2-1 record and a 3.09 ERA and a .606 OPS against, better than his numbers on other days rest.

And Sophist is right. Last year, in 3 starts on 6+ days rest, he posted a 6.03 ERA. There isn't much consistency, but that's not surprising when you have small sample sizes. Plus, it could simply be a matter of who the opponents were in those games. Finally, Moyer has evolved significantly as a pitcher in the last few years.

thanks guys


I have plenty of confidence in Moyer. His last start was not optimum at all, but keep in mind that the ump was awful erratic for both teams and Moyer is one that has to get the corners. I dont recall Moyer having two subpar starts in a row this season and even with Mannys career #s against Moyer I am confident Jamie will deliver a QS or better tonight.

Wasn't it here that I read that the game 1 homers (based on some website)would have been out in 20 of 30 parks and it was Ramirez's HR that was the real CBP job?

is dobbs going to start at third again against kuroda i heard someone saying the phills might have a hard time against this guy

jl: Dobbs is hitting near .350 now since Sept. 1 as a starter at 3B. Not even the Feliz-apologists on Beerleaguer (and there are many) are calling for Feliz to start vs. RHP.

Watching Howard flail at first pitch low sliders after Utley walks is pretty darn frustrating (Who doesn't want to shake him and ask him what he's thinking?), but somewhat mitigated by a 2 games to none lead.

I also believe that Myers would have been a lot sharper without having to wait through two long, long at bats. I wonder, a little bit, (and forgive me if someone's been this paranoid on previous threads) if Torre used so many pitchers in the third inning just to delay Brett's return to the mound.

EF - Indeed. Those two dingers were pretty solid. Burrell's would have been a double in Boston, but was very decently hit. Utley's did not go to a place that is especially deep in most parks. That being said, the play which preceded them was very fortuitous, especially given the way Lowe had been pitching. (I mean, really, how many groundballs can be reasonably expected? Derek Lowe, free agent, would look very good in bloodstripes).

I look forward to Moyer pitching in LA. I hope the hitters show up.

With regard to Brett Myers:

Long live the Disproportionate Playoff BABIP!!!!

Starting Feliz at third tonight would be insane. I don't care how slow Jamie Moyer throws.

clout - you didn't address jl's question. Beerleaguer has nothing to do with who will start at third; only The Gut does.

I predict that with Moyer pitching, and with Cholly watching Dobbs kick a routine grounder on Friday, The Gut will point to Feliz to start tonight.

clout - The only way Dobbs gets a start in a playoff game with Moyers pitching is if Chollie is delayed getting to the stadium and Jimmy Williams fills out the line-up card.

This particular gut that we're talking about is too predictible in this particular matter.

Classic Fox Sports moment so far was in the intro to Game 2 McCarver is drawing up the Game 1 home runs showing that Manny's double went farther to center than the Phillies HRs to the right & left field stands.

Like CBP is the only place where the field is deeper in center than in the power alleys.
Then Manny hits a high fly to the flower beds but that's OK.

Good balanced unbiased coverage Fox.

Ben Rivera - The HP Ump today is Mike Everitt. I don't know anything about his strike zone.

F' the media.

F' McCarver and his butt-buddy Buck.

F' Man-Ram and the LA Crew.

Go Phils!

Ben Rivera:

On Everitt, according to THT, the only notable aberration is that he keeps a tight zone on the right side (from the catcher's perspective). So a RHB's outside corner (LHB's inside) might be more balls than strikes. I do not believe that kind of strike zone is good news. Jamie likes to use the outside corner for RHBs. If he's not getting that call, it could be a short day for him.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/a-zone-of-their-own/


Also, in 2006, Everitt had the second highest umpire's ERA (not sure where I got this - just google Mike Everitt and you'll find it).

If both of those sheets are accurate, LAD could score a bunch today. Let's hope the middle of the Phils' line-up has the BABIP of, um, Brett Myers.

Carson - Why not tell us how you really feel?

amen

I've never had a problem speaking my mind.

Every game that Jaime Moyer starts, it's the same thing. The baseball genius has to make a plea to start Dobbs over Feliz. Moyer had the best winning pct on the squad with Feliz handling 3rd. The manager knows more than you do.

That being said, the play which preceded them was very fortuitous, especially given the way Lowe had been pitching.

Of course, LA scored 3 runs on Friday after they had a 2 out strikeout that eluded Ruiz.

And they failed to capitalize on Dobbs' botched play.

If they had a better record, and were up 2-0, we'd all be complaining that the 'good teams' jump on other teams mistakes. Well, maybe we're that team right now.

I guess it will take nothing less than the Phils winning the WS for the next 3 years before people stop questioning Cholly's lineup.

Andy: According to those 2007 umpire sheets CB Bucknor is a decent ball/strike umpire which is hard to fathom.

Everitts numbers indicate that Moyer will have trouble getting the outside strike against RHB. In his last game he had Runge behind the plate. Runges numbers show he gives the outside strike to RHB, so we'll have to see how this plays out.

I have specific issues with Feliz starting tonight of all nights, beyond the typical "he's essentially an automatic out at the plate."

1) Kuroda has pretty sharp splits going against Righties vs. Lefthanded hitters, having much more success getting right-handed hitters out

2) Kuroda throws A TON of junk - I'd be willing to guess he throws his 4-seam fastball only approximately 1/4-1/3 of the time, and he assuredly won't throw Pedro any fastballs at all.

3) The junk that Kuroda throws which will cause the most trouble for a hitter like Feliz is his shutto. It looks similar to a fastball coming out of the pitcher's hand, and works like a reverse slider and he can locate it extremely well. He'll start it over the inside corner of the plate to righties, and have it dive right in on their hands down and in, and out of the strike zone.

I forgot to mention in my post that I also like starting Dobbs because it gives the Phils more flexibility later in games. If Pedro's on the bench, the Phils have a right-handed power bat to bring in to face either Kuo or Beimel late in the game. If Pedro starts and Dobbs is on the bench, however, the Phils' three best hitters off the bench are all lefties (Dobbs, Stairs, and Jenkins) and therefore either Bruntlett or Taguchi would be forced into action to face the two Dodgers' lefties late in a game.
My comments notwithstanding, I would be shocked if Cholly decided to start Dobbs again tonight, especially with Jamie on the mound. It's almost a moot point completely..

Bonehead: Does that mean Cholly ignored the ball that Feliz kicked that Rich Hoffmann said should've been charged an error? Or do only Dobbs' errors count?

diggitydave: Totally agree with you Dave, I would start Dobbs tonight too, but I highly doubt the Charlie will do it.

mikes77: I wouldn't argue that. But it's still a dumb move. Can you guess why?

The Phils are up 2-0 in the NLCS and people are still obsessing over Feliz? There must be something more interesting than that to discuss, like color of their uniforms? What will be their pre-game meal? The weather?

GoPhilsGo: While you are the blog's resident censor who attempts to ban any and all criticism or negative comments about the Phillies, their ownership and their management, I may not agree with you but I respect your opinion. Now let me express an honest opinion that you think this board should be limited to: Go Phillies!

I would like to give a pre-emptive comment to those attending tonight's game. In the immortal words of Chase Utley: "Boo? F- you!"

clout - Feliz's play was tougher, but, yes, the play should have been made,

But, if your point is that there is no difference defensively between Feliz and Dobbs, then I have nothing left to say.

Still, I predict Cholly will start Feliz tonight.

Clout, I wasn't trying to censor you or anyone else. Criticize away if it makes you feel good. But do you honestly think that the Feliz platoon discussion really matters at this point? The bottom line is that you don't think Feliz should start and Cholly does. We get it.

I don't quite get it. Manny gets traded to LA, so he auctions off his dodger blue car? More to the point - the real winner in all of these auctions is Ebay who gets a ridiculous cut of the proceeds.

GoPhilsGo-
I attempted to add something else to the generic "Feliz sucks and is an automatic out, therefore he should never start against RHP" discussion, with somewhat of an analysis of Kuroda and the situations in the game tonight. So sorry if I wasted your time.

Jeeeee-zus Keee-rist...

All of us... clout included, will stipulate that Pedro Feliz is a superior defender to Greg Dobbs.

However, Dobbs is a significantly better hitter against RH pitching, and is one of the hottest hitters on the Phils over the past month or so.

Dobbs significant advantage in his 4 plate appearances far outweighs the couple of tough plays at third that may or may not come his way.

How anyone can disagree with this is beyond me.

GoPhilsGo: Just because you deem something unworthy of discussion doesn't make it so. But thanks for your non-input on the matter.

Clout said, "But it's still a dumb move. Can you guess why?"

It's a dumb move because your smarter than the manager.

Nevermind that Greg Dobbs is a butcher at 3rd and Moyer gets a significant number of groundouts from right-handed batters to the left side of the infield.

It's only the playoffs. A couple errors down the 3rd base line won't hurt.

LA Times blog has tonight's lineup. Pedro Feliz starts at third and bats 7th.

mikes77phillies: Sorry, but Jamie Moyer does not get a significantly larger number of balls hit to third than other Phillies pitchers. I've researched this time and time again. It's a myth. Check the archives here and I've outlined it again and again.

So now that the premise for your theory is wrong, care to change your opinion?

CJ, I don't think anyone would argue with your point, but Cholly is going to do what has worked for him. My point was that this discussion has been going on since opening day, and the Phils are 2 games away from the WS, so maybe, just maybe, Cholly is right.

mikes77phillies: How many balls get hit to the thirdbaseman when Moyers pitches? How many are difficult chances? Also, did you notice that Dobbs fielding has improved the more starts he got? And that his bat beat the Brewers twice and he was in the middle of the winning rally in game 2? Or the play in which Feliz kicked a grounder hit right at him? Try not to confuse yourself with the facts.

Dodgers bench James Loney and put Nomar at first. He's had good success in his career against Moyer, but none of it is recent. I think this move helps the Phils. I don't think Nomar is significantly better with the bat in this situation and his glove is worse.

GoPhilsGo: If you want a simple way to look at it, then fine. Here's my question: Do you believe starting Feliz over Dobbs tonight helps the team more than starting Dobbs over Feliz?

That's what we should be asking. Not whether or not this team has won in spite of that decision in the past.

I like Manuel. I think he's done a great job with this team. But his stubborn insistence to play Feliz in situations like this have the potential to hurt the team. Just because it all works out in the end doesn't mean the decision was correct.

GoPhilsGo: "the Phils are 2 games away from the WS, so maybe, just maybe, Cholly is right."

Let me see if I understand your logic. If the Phillies win the World Series, then every decision Cholly made during the season was right? Or is every decision right because they won the division? At what point does every decision he made become right? If the team didn't make the playoffs would that mean that every decision Cholly made was wrong?

Just because it all works out in the end doesn't mean the decision was correct.

If Feliz starts, they can use Myers as a right-handed bat off the bench if need be.

Clout, not at all. But IF the goal is for the Phils to make it to the WS, then Cholly must be doing something right, no? I have questioned many of his moves over the season, and I don't pretend do understand why he does what he does sometimes. No manager will make all the right moves, obviously.

Cj said "Just because it all works out in the end does'nt mean the decision was correct."

If it all works out in the end, the decision was indeed correct.

Phils record when Hamels starts: 19-14
Phils record when Moyer starts: 22-11

I wonder why Moyer didn't start game 1?

Clout, I guess you can say that if the Phils don't make it to the WS, then it was in large part due to Cholly insistence on starting Feliz at 3rd. If they do make it, you can say they did in spite of Feliz (or any other questionable move that Cholly has made.

mikes77phillies: I give up. Your logic is dizzying.

GoPhilsGo - You finally get it! Sometimes teams win despite bad decisions. Tonight, maybe Manuel will leave Romero in to face Manny. A terrible decision. But maybe Manny will fly out. Still a terrible decision. I think the Phils maybe don't win game 2 with Feliz in the lineup.

GoPhilsGo: Are you intentionally being dense?

The result of a baseball game rarely comes down to a single decision a manager makes. This game likely won't come down to Feliz vs. Dobbs.

However, shouldn't the manager be putting his team in the best position to succeed? And wouldn't starting Dobbs over Feliz improve the offense more than it would affect the defense?

CJ: mikes77 has no logic.

Wow. An insult from an internet clown... I'm crushed.

CJ---"If you want a simple way to look at it, then fine. Here's my question: Do you believe starting Feliz over Dobbs tonight helps the team more than starting Dobbs over Feliz?"


A very fair question, and as far as tonight's game is concerned, I'd be curious what Moyer thinks about it, not that he would ever express it out loud.
We all like Coste's bat (well maybe not so much anymore) but the pitchers all seem comfortable with Chooch behind the plate. Perhaps Jamie might feel the same about Feliz.

mikes77:
"Just because it all works out in the end doesn't mean the decision was correct."

"If it all works out in the end, the decision was indeed correct."

I didn't mean it as an insult. But you do see the lack of logic here, right?


GoPhilsGo: Is thirdbase as important a defensive position as catcher?

GoPhilsGo: The Coste-Ruiz comparison is hardly apt, but I'll take it.

Earlier this year, when Ruiz was struggling mightily and Coste was hitting, Coste got significantly more at bats despite Ruiz's superiority on defense. Why isn't the same thing happening at third?

When Coste's bat practically disappeared, Ruiz was back behind the plate pretty much full time.

And the biggest reason this comparison doesn't quite work is because cather is, perhaps, the most important defensive position on the field. If it's not THE most, it's one of the most. Third base is, perhaps, the second least important defensive position on the field behind left field. It's why so many teams put big bat-bad glove players there.

CJ, because I question your premise I'm being dense. That must be it.

minus when feliz was on the dl, has dobbs ever started behind moyer over feliz?

"Is thirdbase as important a defensive position as catcher?"

No, but I was making the point that maybe, in this case, Jamie would be more comfortable with Feliz at 3rd.
Then again, he may curse Cholly when he reads the lineup card.

I was making the Coste-Ruiz comparison not to compare the importance of catcher to 3rd base, but to what move many Beerleaguers wanted, which was taking Chooch out because of his dismal offense, but the pitchers on the Phils felt otherwise, as did Cholly.

GoPhilsGo: No... it's dense to suggest that the result justify the decision.

If I'm stopped at a drawbridge, I'd have two choices to get across.

1) Speed up and ramp it.
2) Wait until it's down and drive across it.

If I decide to do #1 and it's successful, was it the right decision.

Justifying a move after the fact based on results is a bad way to manage. You should always put your team in the best position to win the game. Starting Dobbs does that. If the only argument against it is, "Well, it worked in the past," then I prove my point.

CJ, I understand what you're saying, but Cholly has started Feliz at 3rd for the vast majority of games this season, so it isn't as if he's changing anything based on an after the fact result. It isn't like the one off in-game decision where he leaves Romero in to pitch to Manny and he gets away with it.

In any case, as much as I like Dobbs off the bench (more than Feliz) if Cholly wants to start Dobbs, fine with me, but he's going to go with what works for him.
I do wonder, does anyone know if Moyer has ever expressed his opinion about this, and what would your opinion be if Moyer said to Cholly that he would prefer Feliz at 3rd.

Homer: Not a bear in sight. The Bear Patrol must be working like a charm.
Lisa: That's spacious reasoning, Dad
Homer: Thank you, dear.
Lisa: By your logic I could claim that this rock keeps tigers away.
Homer: Oh, how does it work?
Lisa: It doesn't work.
Homer: Uh-huh.
Lisa: It's just a stupid rock.
Homer: Uh-huh.
Lisa: But I don't see any tigers around, do you?
Homer: Lisa, I want to buy your rock.

GoPhilsGo: Discussing what Manuel will or won't do is very different from discussing what Manuel should or shouldn't do. What do you believe he should do?

I've never heard Moyer comment on who his third baseman is. I'd guess it wouldn't matter to him, but I don't know.

Finally, having Feliz off the bench to face a lefty is actually better, in my opinion. When Feliz starts, our only RH bats are Taguchi, Coste and Bruntlett. When Dobbs starts, we still have Stairs and Jenkins off teh bench to face righties.

"Finally, having Feliz off the bench to face a lefty is actually better, in my opinion. When Feliz starts, our only RH bats are Taguchi, Coste and Bruntlett. When Dobbs starts, we still have Stairs and Jenkins off teh bench to face righties."

Jenkins is as wretched as Taguchi as a pinch hitter. Coste and Stairs are wash. the phillies pinch hitters are equally bad frim both sides of the plate, outside of Dobbs.

mikes77phillies:

Jenkins vs. RHP 2008: 728 OPS
Taguchi vs. LHP 2008: 455 OPS

Stairs vs. RHP 2008: 762 OPS
Coste vs. LHP 2008: 881 OPS

Dobbs vs. RHP 2008: 846 OPS
Feliz vs. LHP 2008: 845 OPS

Chris Coste certainly helps your argument, but he's hit a whopping 107/286/143 in September. I doubt Manuel trusts him with a bat right now. And it's tough to pinch hit with your backup catcher because you're out of luck if your starter gets hurt.

Taguchi is worthless at the plate... and much more worthless than Jenkins is. Stairs offers a legit power option off the bench when Dobbs starts at third. There is no real threat off the bench from the right side of the plate vs. lefties when Feliz starts.

2008 OPS

vs. LHP

Coste: .881
Feliz: .845
Bruntlett: .742
So: .455

vs. RHP

Stairs: 1.083 (with Phils)
Dobbs: .846
Jenkins: .728

Op, sorry CJ.

Sophist: Well, I did sorta step into your territory ;-)

Coste is the only legitimate RHB off the bench when Feliz starts and Coste has 1) been in a brutal slump and 2) is the backup catcher and generally one of the last off teh bench.

"Dobbs is hitting near .350 now since Sept. 1 as a starter at 3B"

Lol! What's up with the hard on that clout has for Dobbs? Notice how he only posts Dobbs' average after Sept 1., because if he included the bulk of the season, Dobbs' avg. when starting would be a lot lower.

Notice, also, after ridiculing the notion all season long that Dobbs might perform differently as a starter than as a PH, now that Dobbs' has posted a good average when starting since Sept, suddenly clout is willing to isolate Dobbs' average when starting from his overall average.

And I love this gem: "...And that his bat beat the Brewers twice."

Pretty interesting, since he didn't get an at bat in the first win, and went 0-1 in the second win.

phlipper:

Dobbs vs. RHP: .846 OPS
Feliz vs. RHP: .646 OPS

Dobbs since Sept 1: 1.016 OPS
Feliz since Sept 1: .661 OPS

Who would you rather have hitting tonight?

Flipper: I wsn't talking about post-season. I was talking about in-season when the Phils needed a big series vs. the Brewers to survive in the final weeks.

BTW, your absurd belief that Dobbs is magically transformed as a hitter depending on what position he plays has been proved ridiculous by the overall numbers. Thus it deserves to be ridiculed. I'm still hoping for an intelligent argument from you about why Feliz should start vs. RHP. Actually, I'd love to read anything at all intelligent from you.

I thought for sure Dobbs would start tonight. Kuroda is a tough RHP and the Phils have had little success against him.
They need all the offense they can get. This is no time to let the foot off of the gas and give any momentum to LA.

Disappointing to say the least.

Wow, this place is a little snippy today. Everyone sensing a loss tonight?

The Eagles sure look like sh*t.

flipper: Actually it was the Mets, not the Brewers. Dobbs won 2 of the 3 games. Fairly crucial series, no?

yo - no post for 1/2 hour?

Eagles are waking up a bit, for what it's worth

GoPhilsGo: Red Zone offense is just awful and Akers is an automatic no go beyond 40 yards. Season isn't over, but I can see the end from my house.

HH, I agree. They are terrible, yet somehow they could win today and the last time I checked the Cowboys were losing.

Crygirls driving for tying FG or winning TD. Go Cards!

GPG: And the Skins lost to the Rams, too. Hard to believe that.

I only care about the Phillies at this point, though. If they don't win, I'll be upset. If the Eagles don't win; it's pretty much par for the course.

hh, the Iggles are just a time killer until the Phils start.

Funny. I cheer with you all during the baseball season but, when the Eagles are playing the Niners, our common ground disappears. The good thing is, the Niners are so terrible that it's hard for me to really care that they're getting trounced again.

Wow, Jim Johnson just bailed out Reid big time. Reid owes him a big steak dinner.

We do agree, however, on the Cowboys being loathsome.

Go CARDS! Wade Phillips is a moron; that's the sole reason I don't fear the Cowboys. The G-Men scare me more.

Iggles scoring 40 points? I didn't expect that.

Eventually, they will review every play and the games will last 12 hours.

GPG: The Niners' pass defense is absolutely atrocious. They haven't stopped anyone all year, except for the woeful Lions.

Hope Jamie can hold against the dodgers.. although we worried all year and he has come thru time & again...

the la bloggers need to be shut - so the media... manny this - manny that - the only positve commnet i have heard besides local media was: this morning when on espn - stephen a smith said the phils were upbeatable. i wonder if talking positvely about the phillies on espn is probable cause for smith to be fired

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