Amaro: Now is not the time for 'sentimental' choices

The Phillies have until midnight to offer binding salary arbitration to free agents Jamie Moyer and Pat Burrell. A guest of 610-WIP, GM Ruben Amaro Jr. said the Phillies do not intend to live in the past.

Yesterday, readers strongly criticized Todd Zolecki’s Sunday article in the Inquirer, which opened the door to the possibility that the Phils may forgo draft pick compensation and decline arbitration for Burrell. While keeping it close to the vest, today on WIP, Amaro supported Zolecki’s notion by emphasizing that by offering arbitration to Burrell, they may not have the financial flexibility to address other areas of the roster down the road. Burrell earned $14 million last season, and by offering arbitration, the Phils would be bound to a one-year contract to be determined by an arbiter, a figure likely to exceed $14 million. Budgeting for that amount, in case Burrell does not find a suitable offer and elects to return, would limit what they could do to address other areas of the roster, Amaro said.

Still, prevailing wisdom among the writers, including Ken Mandel from Phillies.com, seems to be that offering arbitration will be a simple, procedural decision guaranteeing draft picks should Burrell or Moyer sign elsewhere, especially Moyer, who they definitely want back. The Phils are believed to be close to a deal with Moyer, but it’s something that many thought would happen last week.

Beerleauger: By the time WIP posts audio of the interview, the Phils will have made their decision. I’ll do my best to relay what I heard. Reading between the lines with Amaro, this Burrell decision is no small matter, and I was struck by his comment about how this is not the time to make “sentimental” choices. Amaro, more or less, said the Phillies got hot when they needed to, but can’t expect to win again if they sit still with the same cast of characters. In Amaro’s “perfect world,” he said Moyer will be their fourth starter and Kyle Kendrick, Carlos Carrasco and J.A. Happ would capably audition for the final spot. In addition, Adam Eaton’s chance of being with the club is “less than 50/50,” he said. As if there was much doubt.

Burrell barely entered the conversation, except for the explanation as to why offering arbitration isn’t as cut and dry as one would assume. He also expressed confidence that Jayson Werth could provide enough lineup protection behind Ryan Howard and said they would look toward platooning in left and also seek a trade should Burrell walk away.

A point of note: Amaro mentor Ed Wade was burned in 2004 when Placido Polanco surprised the Phillies by accepting arbitration, basically becoming an expensive utility player, one who would eventually be squeezed off the team. A similar situation happened the year before with Kevin Millwood.

Comments

[bay_area_phan]

I agree whole-heartedly that now is not the time for sentimental choices. However, I would strong disagree with Amaro in which choices he suggests to be sentimental. To me, the resigning of a 46-year old pitcher IS a move that smacks of living in the past. Offering salary arbitration to your only good right-handed bat, when there are few better options on the FA market, is not sentimental. It is common sense.

[J. Weitzel]

Maybe someone knows this. Was the Polanco situation the reason baseball changed the old rule prohibiting teams from negotiating with players they didn't offer arbitration?

[bay_area_phan]

"Budgeting for that amount, in case Burrell does not find a suitable offer and elects to return, would limit what they could do to address other areas of the roster, Amaro said."

Translation: Budgeting for that amount would mean that Monty and the other owners might have to settle for only a 40-foot yacht this Christmas, instead of the 60-footer that they usually buy for the holidays. Other needs? Give me a break. With Moyer seemingly in the fold, the Phillies have no other significant needs except to find a bat who can reasonably replace Burrell's offensive production.

[diggitydave]

I've said it numerous times before, I'll say it again: "don't mess with success and dance with the one that brung ya."

That being said, in an ideal world, Burrell is signed sans going through arbitration.

I hate arbitration for a few reasons, namely:
1) You're bound to whatever salary is chosen by the arbiter, which as JW mentioned above, may in this case exceed his exorbitant salary of last year.
2) You're essentially insulting your player and arguing that he's worthless, and it's been made apparent from numerous players that it's an incredibly sobering and traumatic experience, one second hearing how horrible of a player you are, and the next second being asked to produce.
3) Correct me if I'm wrong, but arbitration would only be for the next season, not for any following seasons? In that case, it's only a temporary solution, and the Phils would have to go through the same procedure next off-season.

My opinion has remained consistent for the last few weeks, as I think it's imperative for as many of the WFC Phillies to remain intact as possible. The chemistry aspect of the squad from last season cannot be valued mathematically, but it should not be overlooked. I see what has happened with the Yankees championship winning teams of 1998-2000, the Angels in 2002, the Red Sox of 2004, and what could happen with the Phillies.

The Yankees broke the bank on A-Rod, Matsui, Johnny Damon, Jason Giambi, etc. and where did that get them?

The Angels signed Vladimir Guerrero and let some of the unsung heroes (Scott Spiezio, Tim Salmon) from 2002 go.

The Red Sox let Damon, Bellhorn, Mueller, Millar, Pedro, and Lowe go after 2004. If not for an obscenely stacked farm system, they would be muddling along in mediocrity after seeing most of their key contributors walk after 2004.

The Phils aren't just replacing Burrell's bat. They're replacing his presence. They're replacing his experience. They're replacing his attitude and his status as a quintessential Phillie. I hope these attributes are not overlooked by the front office.

[J. Weitzel]

One thing is certain: Amaro has no shortage of assistant GMs helping him with this decision.

[Sam]

I like the sentiment over non-sentimentalism, but I think both Moyer and Burrell both fall into the realm of productive players.

Of course he won't be this blunt, but what this seems to be saying to me is that they think they can downgrade offensively in left.

[bay_area_phan]

Last point on this subject. This situation bears little resemblance to the Polanco situation. For whatever reason, the Phillies had no interest in playing Polanco at third base when they already had the great David Bell. That meant his only position was 2nd base -- which, in turn, meant that, as long as he was still on the team, he was impeding Utley from being the full-time starter. If we offer Burrell arbitration and he accepts, he will be the starting left fielder and he won't be blocking the path of any younger, cheaper, and more productive player. Besides, the issue is somewhat academic because the odds of his accepting an offer of arbitration are slim and none.

[Len39]

I still am holding onto my conspiracy theory that they might let Moyer and Burrell walk and use that money for Lowe and to cover some of the other arbitration raises. Realistically, Lowe and Hamels' raise would equal the money saved on Moyer and Burrell, unless the bidding war on Lowe just explodes after Sabathia is signed.

I really wouldn't mind a Hamels/Myers/Lowe/Blanton/Happ,Carasco,Kendrick rotation. In fact, that would be a big improvement and keep us in contention all year. Also, Lowe would basically be another #2 starter and he would solidify that spot for when Myers leaves after this year. I think it is a safe bet that Lowe will be a high quality pitcher for years to come. I wouldn't make that investment in Burnett though.

It might also free up a Happ type to use as a centerpiece in a package for a new, young leftfielder.

Also, with the talk about the future by Amaro maybe they are planning on giving Burrell's money to either Hamels or less likely Howard in a long term deal.

I am fearing the idea of a Jay Payton type/Stairs or Jenkins platoon in leftfield especially with Utley out for potentially two months (although we all expect him back sooner than later knowing his work ethic).

The next week and a half will be very interesting.

I was also back at my parents for Thanksgiving and let me tell you how jealous I am of NESN. They are doing a live broadcast at 6pm every night from the winter meetings, like a special show not just part of the regular sports news show. Man, that would be awesome to have here. The MLB channel can't come fast enough.

[Len39]

BAP: It is not really about how big a yacht that the owners get. We have one of the highest payrolls in baseball and we have to face facts that with so many good players eligible for arbitration for the first time that the payroll will skyrocket while still having needs to fill. I think the Phillies could do a lot to raise their revenue (just look at the marketing genius of the Red Sox. It is really well documented in the USA Today Sports Weekly Baseball Insider special if its still on the newstands), but that is another subject.

DiggityDave: The Red Sox aren't really a good example. No one missed Pedro and Damon and letting them go forced other moves that led to a World Series win in 2007. The only reason 2006 was a disaster was cause the team fell apart in the 2nd half when Varitek got hurt. There aren't a lot of Red Sox fans that would argue that keeping any of the players that they let walk would have helped the team in the long run and I'm sure the Mets are happy to be out of the Pedro contract and the Yanks would love to unload Damon now.

If they are letting someone like Burrell walk to build to the future like the Red Sox and it is part of a plan then I'm for it. If it is out of cheapness then it is a mistake.

I will also gladly take another World Series in three years like the Red Sox got after 2004.

You can't argue Burrell's impact on this team on the field or in the clubhouse, but if there are positive moves that bring the team forward then you can't just stand pat (no pun intended).

[mikes77phillies]

I wonder what all the 'know it alls'(clout and his cheerleaders, MG and AHW) will say when the Phillies dont offer Pat Burrell... I said they would'nt offer him arbitraton and was ridiculed for it. I stand by it, and believe the Phillies SHOULD'NT offer it to him. Thats $16million that could be better spent.

[Bedrosian's Beard]

Although, it may not be what I/we want to hear, i'm somewhat surprised by his candidness, re: sentimentality.

[bay_area_phan]

Len: We do NOT have one of the highest payrolls in baseball. We had the 12th highest payroll in a 30-team league last year. In other words, the largest single-team market in baseball has a payroll right around legaue median.

[DPatrone]

Diggity~

The reason they should offer Burrell arb is simply this: The draft picks they would get if he leaves. Same thing with Moyer. Both of them are type A FA's.

I don't buy the budget comment. What's the worse thing that can happen if they offer arb to Burrell and he accepts? They've got their RH power bat for another year.

They're not gonna sign Howard long-term. Yes he and Hamels along with a bunch of others will get big raises and if they cut Eaton loose, they'll have to eat his 9 million. But the team has the money to do whatever they want. They just choose to be frugal. And yes they are frugal. Unless they don't want to be as is the case with some of their players' contracts.

Tell me who is younger and cheaper than Burrell that puts up his kind of numbers that they could get? No one.

Moyer's case is a little different. He's 46 and the 4th starter Not so easy to replace his 16 wins, but in pure 4th starter terms only, maybe not that difficult.

They don't play with the big boys in the FA market very often. And they can't/don't make any blockbuster trades that come out in their favor. The bottom line is line is all that matters to them and it appears that it's gonna be a long dull winter.

[bay_area_phan]

mikes77: 3 points.

First, don't gloat until you're right. You said the Phillies wouldn't offer him arbitration because he would accept it. In all probability, they WILL offer him arbitration and he won't accept it, and you will end up being spectacularly wrong.

Second, if the Phillies stupidly decide not to offer him arbitration, it will not prove that you were right. It will only prove that Ruben Amaro is as wrong as you are.

Third, if the Phillies don't resign Burrell arbitration, I will be very curious to see the "other uses" to which they put that $16M. I say it will be used to buy the owners new yachts for Christmas. It sure won't be used to sign free agents.

[Hitman]

Len39- You are entitled to your own opinion, but you are not entitled to your own facts. Your assertion that the Phils have one of the highest payrolls in baseball is untrue. In 2008, the Phils ranked 13th in payroll and 5th in attendance. The ownership are a bunch of cheap bastards who have raised 2009 ticket prices and seek only to maximize profits. BAP is exactly right. It's a screw job on the fans, and you have bought into it.

[Len39]

BAP: My bad, for some reason I thought we were in the top six. I just goggled it. Yeah they definitely should have some money to spend, especially with the merch profits after the World Series win. Everywhere you go in Philly now someone is wearing a Phillies shirt. You never saw that before. If they sold out 50 games or whatever it was last year, I think it is safe to say that they will sellout 60-70 next year and be at about 80-90% capacity for the other games.

Maybe they just don't think Burrell is a good fit for the long haul. Replacing him with someone like Ibanez makes no sense to me. Maybe it is all about the size of the yacht they will buy this offseason. Maybe they are crapping themselves thinking about what Hamels, Howard, Werth, Victorino, Blanton, Etc. will get in arbitration. Maybe they are swimming in a bathtub full of money. Either way, we know they aren't going to go overboard and we are working within this budget.

[Len39]

Now that I am looking at things more closely it is ridiculous for teams in Seattle, Toronto, St. Louis, Detroit and even Atlanta to have higher payrolls than a team in Philadelphia.

For some reason I was confused and was thinking we were #5 in payroll when in fact it was in attendance. I am now outraged thinking about the fact that the fans turned out and spent money and the ownership probably won't return the favor.

[NEPP]

Read: We won and we ain't gonna even take the chance on not making a ton of money next year. Bye Pat.

[mikes77phillies]

bap - i could be 'spectacularly wrong', but i doubt it. Pat Burrell puts up the emptiest .900 OPS in baseball. A righthanded, poor mans Adam Dunn. His limitations are not easily measured. He is the 2nd worst defensive LF in baseball. He can't run the bases. He doesnt hit with men on base. And he pops out 200 times year... Juan Rivera and Geoff Jenkins would put up the same numbers minus the walks( in front of Pedro Feliz)... Use that money to extend Jason Werth and Victorino.

[NEPP]

As walks are just a meaningless event in a baseball game. I'm so glad that mikes77 is here to enlighten us.

[Len39]

Looks like the Phillies are in the running for Mark Loretta. I'd take him over Bruntlet. Also, Phillies.com (yeah I know its not the most unbiased source) says the Phils are likely to offer Burrell arbitration.

[NEPP]

If they're "likely" to do it...why the hell are they waiting till the last second? Almost every other team has already announced it arbitration decisions. Why do the Phillies have to be the bloody Soviet Russia of Major League Baseball???

[mikes77phillies]

nepp - I don't care to enlighten you. Just stating a difference of opinion from the sheep. I don't think Burrell is hard to replace. Most here think he is. Trade for Magglio, Dye or sign Manny and upgrade. Dont give a RAISE to a guy who bats .200 in September.

[paul]

Problem with arbitration is assuming the player won't accept. That's what happened with Greg Maddux in Atlanta. They really didn't want him back, tried to get too clever and offered arbitration in the hope of comp picks, and he unexpectedly accepted. That forced Braves to trade Kevin Millwood which, even though they got an all-star year from Johnny Estrada, wasn't what they initially wanted.

Bottom line: Don't offer arbitration unless you really want the player back.

[philsphan]

How is wanting two draft picks living in the past?

[NEPP]

****Trade for Magglio, Dye or sign Manny and upgrade. Dont give a RAISE to a guy who bats .200 in September.****

Who do you propose to just give up for Magglio? Dye has a no-trade clause for Philly and Manny wants 4 years, $100 million at a minimum. You honestly think Manny will be worth $25 million when he's 40? Magglio would probbaly cost us Marson and Donald...guys that will have probably be starters on the 2010 team...that's not very smart either.

[bay_area_phan]

Len: If you want to be even more outraged, think about the fact that they just raised ticket prices by $2 to $3 per ticket and as much as $6 per ticket on premium seats. They drew 3.42 million home fans last year. The Phillies, of course, didn't reveal the number of seats that are going up by each price amount, because they didn't want to give their fans enough information to compute how much they're getting screwed by ownership. But let's conservatively estimate a $3.00 per ticket increase on average. Then multiply that by 3.42 million and you come out to a $10.26 million increase in revenues from home ticket sales alone.

Payroll last year was $98M. Add to that $98M another $10.26M -- the increased revenue from home ticket sales -- and you get $108.26M. If payroll is less than $108.26M this year ($10.26M more than last year's pay roll), then it means that the ticket price increase is going right to ownership's pocket. My guess is that payroll will end up right around that $108.25M next year, and that ownership will try to sell it as a significant increase in payroll.

I might add that I've confined my analysis only to ticket sales prices. I'm not counting collateral revenue from things like concessions and parking and Phillies-related merchandise, since I don't really have a firm handle on how much the Phillies themselves profit from these items. But I have no doubt that they do profit and I have no doubt that those profits are going way up next year. Again, if these monies aren't reinvested into the team, then they can only be going to one place: ownership's pockets.

[mikes77phillies]

I'm glad they are offering arbitration to Jaime Moyer. No lose situation. 1. He will most likely perform to the level of pay IF he accepts. 2. Other teams will shy away from offering a 46 year old, a contract that costs them draft picks.

[NEPP]

Why will Moyer "most likely" perform to the level of the pay? There aren't that many other historical precedents for a 46 year old pitcher repeating his success from his Age 45 season. Other than Phil Niekro, most starters that old completely collapse at that age. I'd like to think that Jamie is the exception but I'm not gonna be stunned if he's terrible in 09.

[Len39]

NEPP: Marson will be competing for a starting job by the 2nd half of this year.

BAP: I wonder how much food concession prices will rise. Even if they are the same prices they will make more money on them next year too since it is just about a given that attendance will rise. I think we should be able to expect a $120 million payroll next year, but you are probably right and it will be around $110 million. I demand Derrick Lowe.

[Brian G]

"Amaro: Now is not the time for 'sentimental' choices"

Ummm... then when IS the time for sentimental choices? As a fan, I'd love to see our best players brought back for next season to try and defend the title. Sentimental would be signing Burrell to a 4 year contract or Moyer for 2 years. Offering one year deals to two players who just had productive seasons simply makes fiscal sense... and if the sentiment costs us a few extra million, then so be it.

[bay_area_phan]

"Pat Burrell puts up the emptiest .900 OPS in baseball."

That's kind of like saying, "She's got the worst body of all the models in Sports Illustrated."

[NEPP]

I don't think Marson will be the starter in the 2nd half for a couple of reasons:

1. UC, the FO, and the pitching staff all LOVE Carlos Ruiz and overlook his deficiencies.

2. UC isnt known for giving rookies a huge role.

3. Sweet Lou could do for another year of seasoning at AAA...I don't agree completely with that theory but I'm afraid that the Phillies might.

If it were up to me, I'd give Lou every chance in the world to make the 25 man in Spring Training as the smaller half of a Ruiz/Marson platoon. I wouldn't be upset to see Coste gone in 09...as much as I respect his efforts as a player.

[Brian G]

bap: I don't have any issue with criticism that payroll should be higher, but you should use the correct numbers. It wasn't 98 million last year, it at least 104 million(not including callups and the Blanton trade). The Thome money counts. It was money they were spending on a player. You just can't wish it away, it has to be factored into the budget when they're deciding how much money they have to spend. Otherwise you could sign guys to 10 year contracts and when they stopped being productive just cut them and pretend the money owed doesn't count.

[NEPP]

And I believe we're paying Thome again this season (did we ever figure that one out?) so BAP isn't that far off either way.

[mikes77phillies]

nepp - 1. I don't believe Manny will get $100 million. I believe 3 years 70million. But if he gets it, he's worth it. 2. If the rumors are correct the White sox are want Homer Bailey for Dye. I think soon to be f/agent,Madson would get him easily. 3. The Tigers are in dump mode. They wouldnt offer Renteria (8million)arb, they'll be selling low on all salaries.

[NEPP]

DYE HAS A NO TRADE CLAUSE TO THE PHILLIES. He's not coming here.

Delmon Young IS on the block though and the Twins are looking for a middle infielder (Ahem Jason Donald). I would go for that personally.

[NEPP]

I wonder if the team that ends up signing Manny will remember how he was in Boston when he wasn't happy or will they ignore that and look at his 2 month salary/contract drive in LA. The Boston one is the real Manny...this is his last contract, he's already a winner, what would he really be playing for? In Boston, Tito and Papi kept him in line...that wouldn't happen in Philly. Nor would the Phillies commit a 1/5th of their payroll to one player.

[Dave]

I'd take Loretta's .280/.350 over Delmon Young's unproven production any day. And I would imagine that, in a pinch, Loretta would be easier to transition to LF if necessary rather than Young when Utley returns. He may not be as young or as fast as Young (no pun intended), but he has much more experience, especially experience in filling in where needed.

[NEPP]

You'd take an aging converted 2B with no history of power over a former #1 pick that made the Majors when he was 20?...a guy that hits around .280-.290 and had great power in the minors. I would think of Young as a long-term solution in LF...not a rental.

People bash Delmon but you have to remember he's only 23 now...2008 was his Age 22 season and he already put up an OPS+ of 102. He will get better.

[Brian G]

NEPP: Yes, now Delmon Young would be a non-sentimental solution I could deal with. Although I'm sure he'd cost quite a bit more than a package centered around Jason Donald.

[NEPP]

It would likely have to be something like this:

1. Jason Donald
2. Dom Brown or M. Taylor
3. mid-level pitching prospect.

or Donald and a good pitching prospect not named Carrasco or Drabek. They want something equivalent or pretty damn close to what they gave up for him (Matt Garza) It was a 6 player deal but the main pieces were Garza and Young. He is definitely on the block though as the Twins have leaked it several times that they want to keep Cuddyer and Span in the outfield with Gomez.

If they would take a reasonable deal, I'd do it in a second. Young will be very very good for a long time...talent's never been his problem and Lopes/UC would help him out big time with his baserunning and hitting (though he is a lifetime .292 hitter already)

[NEPP]

Seriously, am I the only one that thinks its ridiculous that its 9:04 PM and the Phillies still haven't made their Arbitration decisions public? Almost every other team has already disclosed their decision. Are we to believe that Amaro is actually sitting in his office still debating a decision he's had all month to make?

[NEPP]

The Sox offered Veritek arbitration...he'd be a moron not to accept it...Wow.

Anytime Phillies.

[mike cunningham]

The beating of the drums regarding the payroll is entirely silly... when it has been proven TIME
and TIME again... that your payroll ranking DOES not equal a championship. At this point it has become incredibly pathetic.

I'm not saying the Phillies FO do everything right. No franchise does. Sometimes you make outright mistakes. Sometimes through injury or MG's favorite "luck" could come in bad or good form. Mostly that luck comes in the form of injuries.

The key to winning championships is building a core of your lineup and a starter or two from your farm system. Have enough other minor league pieces to get you bullpen piece (Lidge). And perhaps you score some value village types to fill in the pieces. And if you are missing one of those pieces, you have to fill that spot with a big time free agent. But if you do everything else the right way. You don't need to get that guy.

If you'd sleep better at night having the top 2 or 3 payroll, go live in New York. Ask them how it feels the last couple of years.

Having a budget is not wrong.
Making a profit is not wrong.

At some point you have to give the franchise some latitiude. As they have brought you a championship and 2 division titles in a row. There can be a tipping point for franchises, like the Red Sox mentioned. Winning a title changed the picture for them, for the clubhouse and the front office. This wasn't a Worst to First situation like 93. There has been a momentum building towards this championship. Winning ONE title is hard. Winning two or three are extremely difficult. And a 200 Million payroll doesn't guarantee you anything.

[clout]

There is ignorant and there is breathtakingly ignorant. Here is something that is breathtakingly ignorant:

"Juan Rivera and Geoff Jenkins would put up the same numbers minus the walks."

In this sad creature's world walks have no value to an offense and players with identical HRS and SLG have the same value whether one has lots of walks or no walks at all.

[Bedrosian's Beard]

Some pretty solid points there Mike Cunningham.

[PhilliesPhan]

"Juan Rivera and Geoff Jenkins would put up the same numbers minus the walks."

LOL...So Taguchi would put up the same numbers minus the walks...and the home runs...and the hits...

[AWH]

"I don't think Burrell is hard to replace."

mikes, I know we disagree, but please don't misrepresent my position.

It has and has always been my position that, in order to contend in 2009, the Phillies need to have a RH power bat like Burrell's in their lineup.

I don't particularly care whose bat is in the lineup, and if you had bothered to read my posts in their entirety, you would know that.

We actually agree that Manny Ramirez's bat would be a HUGE upgrade. BUT (and be honest), do YOU really believe the Phillies will spend that kind of money to replace Burrell?

Where we differ is in how "hard" it is to replace Burrell's bat.

You mention trading for certain players, but, you're not being honest with the rest of the readers here:

If you're going to propose a trade, then "man up" and tell us all who you're willing to give up for those players.

Also, please pay attention to published reports as to what the other teams are seeking in return.

For instance, do you know what the White Sox have asked for in return for Dye (assuming he would take the Phillies off his 'no trade' list - and what incentives do you think he would want to do so? - more $$$ maybe?)? They want STARTING pitching, so Madson wouldn't cut it.

So, if you traded for Dye, who would you be willing to give up?

The Tigers have said Ordonez isn't on the trading block? Are you aware he's slated to make more than 16MM in '09? Are you aware he has a bad knee and is an injury risk?

So, even if Detroit would do the trade, you seem to be willing to give up cheap young talent - who you've yet to name - for an aging outfielder who is an injury risk, and who's scheduled to make $21MM in '09 including a $3MM buyout [with a '10 option guaranteed at $18MM if he makes 135 starts or 540 PAs]. Is that your position?

You should be able to figure out "doable" trades relatively easily. Oh, and feel free to "think" the Phillies would be willing to spend $18MM on Ramirez (note: please throw away the crack pipe) or pick up the rest of Ordonez's contract.

After all, you "don't think Burrell is hard to replace".

[clout]

Mike C: Your post could also be used to defend the Marlins budget. Is there any level where you might say that a team ought to spend more to improve itself?

[clout]

AWH: mikes77's post is so ignorant it's hardly worth a response. He thinks the Tigers will give up Magglio for next to nothing and that Dye is easy to get even though Dye specifically excludes the Phillies.

[clout]

BedBeard: Please explain how offering arb to Burrell would be sentimental but offering it to Moyer wouldn't be.

[PhilliesPhan]

The Dbacks decline arbitration on Adam Dunn...

[James Beale]

This cast of characters just brought a WFC to Philadelphia. Isn't this exactly the time for sentimental decisions?

[AWH]

That should say "$70MM on Ramirez".

mike c, good post.

I think you have to put things in perspective, though.

BLrs care about the competitiveness of the team - nothing else.

The griping about budgets, payroll, salaries, etc. is all an periferal to that.

We just hate to see a potential opportunity lost over a few million of what, ultimately are, the fans dollars.

And you are right, nothing is guaranteed by a high payroll.

*****But, Gillick is gone, and it's still largely the same guys running the franchise that gave us so many years of misery, so they only get limited latitude.*****

If they want the same kind of latitude the Steinbrenners or John Henry gets, well, that requires more than catching lightning in a bottle once, or, in Amaro's own words, getting hot at the right time.

[bay_area_phan]

Mike C: No one ever said having a high payroll guarantees anything. And, no, I could not care less what the Phillies' payroll is. If they are able to field a team full of 20-year old stars who make no money at all, I'll be the most enthusiastic fan on this board. However, those who trot out the "payroll doesn't win a championship" argument invariably base their arguments on the 1 or 2 anomalies out there, while conveniently ignoring the fact that there is a significant correlation between payroll and success. It is not a perfect correlation and, once the playoffs start, all bets are largely off. But the correlation between payroll and regular season success is a strong one.

Last year, the top 10 payroll teams were the Yankees, Mets, Tigers, RedSox, WhiteSox, Angels, Dodgers, Cubs, Mariners, and Braves. That list includes 4 of the 6 division winners, 5 of the 8 playoff teams, and two more teams that won 89 games each. The bottom 10 payroll teams were: Florida, Tampa, Oakland, Pittsburgh, Washington, Minnesota, Kansas City, Arizona, Baltimore, and Texas. There's only 1 playoff team on that list and the rest reads like a who's-who list of crappy teams.

The other factor that the "payroll doesn't win a championship" crowd ALWAYS ignores is that the few teams that are able to beat the payroll game are almost never able to sustain their success beyond a season or two. If you took a year-in, year-out look at the payrolls of all 30 major league teams, you will find an incredibly strong correlation between payroll and sustained successrong.

[AWH]

clout, I prefer to refer to mikes77 as "uninformed".

I made a decision not to rip the guy, but to give him the chance to make an informed, well-reasoned response.

Ispecifically mentioned what Kenny Williams was looking for in exchange for Dye, so that he could do some homework and repond accordingly.

Let's see if he does.

[MG]

Dbacks declined arbitration on Dunn because they have serious cashflow problems that have been well publicized. You think that team wouldn't have wanted the 2 compensation picks?

As for Burrell, I will say this - why would he turn down $30-$35M likely guaranteed if he leaves as a FA vs getting say only $16M guaranteed from the Phils. I would be pretty surprised if that were the case.

[Spitz]

MG: 2 reasons -

1. The $16M is really guaranteed, since I bet that will be close to the arb # the Phillies will offer. He likely will not have any $30-35M term sheets in hand by the time he declines arb on Sunday, so I wouldn't call this figure guaranteed.

2. Haven't you been one of the most vocal posters on this board about how the recession is going to affect baseball this year (I agree with you on that BTW). Burrell and his agents could be banking on a better economy (baseball and otherwise) a year from now, and therefore may want to wait until then for his last signficant long term contract.

[Brian G]

James Beale: That was the point I was trying to make. A lot of posters say "they don't care whose in left field as long as that person produces similarly to Burrell". I disagree. I'd like to see our guys defend the title... within reason of course, and offering Moyer and Burrell arb is within reason.
Honestly, as a fan, I'd rather have Burrell in LF next year for us over Manny, regardless of cost.

[Bedrosian's Beard]

Clout: Huh?

[Len39]

Mike77: The Phillies wouldn't sign Babe Ruth for 3 years and $70 million. They just don't spend that kind of money especially for a team that is already going to sell a lot of tickets and merch. The Thome signing was to fill the new ballpark. Also, the Tigers already stated that they might not even trade Mags, nevermind give him away for cheap.

Mike Cunningham: Great post. I'm not arguing that we should break the bank, but this team does have to give something back to the fans and lock up more core players (they did do a great job with Rollins, Utley and Lidge in the past) and add a nice piece like a Lowe.

Dave: You are insane with that Loretta over Young statement. There is no comparison there. Loretta is a utility part and a quality one at that. Young is a potential star.

I like the sound of Young a lot, but I'm willing to bet it would take a lot more than Jason Donald. I think he could be worth the investment of some prospects since he is so young and has so much upside. Off topic, that MN outfield next year looks pretty exciting too.

[baxter]

I'm starting to think we should just offer AJ Burnett a 5 year deal. Burnett likes Rich Dubee and lives in Baltimore, so this would be a perfect situation for him. A rotation of Hamels/Burnett/Myers/Blanton/Carrasco could be very, very good.

[AWH]

bap, Montgomery has said that the payroll, including trades, call-up, and Thome money was approximately $112 million. IMO, that's probably close to what they spent on players.

I'll say it again for the slow people:

I don't, (and no one should) care how much the Phillies spend on players.

I care that they improve the team.

If they can improve the team without PB or an equivalent replacement bat in LF, that's great.

If they can improve the team by trading Cole Hamels (and, no, I don't trust them to), that's great.

If they can improve the pitching staff by re-signing Moyer (oops), that's great.

But, and this is addressed to mike c, I don't want them thinking they have any latitude.

That leads to the type of failure that gave us 13 losing seasons in 14 years.

Treading water is NOT acceptable.

[B-Mac]

Just posted by David Murphy-

"National League sources confirmed to the Daily News that the midnight deadline to offer arbitration passed with the Phillies passing on all four of their players eligible for free agency: Moyer, leftfielder Pat Burrell and righthanders Tom Gordon and Rudy Seanez."

Disappointed that there were no arbitration offers, but I definately don't think it stops the Phillies from bringing back both players. It seems like no one would come close to offering Burrell anything near what he would get in arbitration, so maybe it makes sense.

[Len39]

I can't believe they didn't offer either Moyer or Burrell arbitration. This better lead to my Lowe theory. No wonder our minor league system sucks. This could be a really scary team in 3-5 years.

Baxter: Burnett's health history is definitely something to be concerned about.

[PhilliesPhan]

I am stunned. I thought it was a win-win offering Burrell arbitration - either he leaves and you get two first round draft picks, or he stays for a one-year deal. Isn't that a good thing considering the Phillies always say "it's not about the money it's about the years." Flat out lie - I am really disappointed unless they have something else in the works.

[D.Patrone]

Not offering arb to either player is just plain stupid for draft pick reasons. Now, they could be really close to re-signing Moyer so an arb offer was not necessary.

But since this means we won't get any draft picks if/when either player leaves, you can bet the Phils will not sign any type FA's and lose their own 1st round pick. This FO is so shirt-sighted is isn't funny.

[AWH]

Well, maybe they didn't offer arb to Burrell because they didn't want any average annual salary to start at the $14MM mark, even if they manage to re-sign him.

If he gets an offer elsewhere, say 3/36, they could also choose to match it.

Moyer??? Go figure. Personally, I thought arb made perfect sense with Moyer, as they would only have to make a 1 year commitment to a 46 yr old pitcher.

This much is now clear. They must be really, really concerned about what they're going to have to pay Howard, Hamels, Werth, Vic, Madson[Boras], Durbin and the rest of the arb eligible players.

[AWH]

I'm almost tempted to go out on a limb and make a 2009 season prediction.

I think you could base one on who is in the FO and making the baseball decisions.

Ultimately, the overall talent will determine how well the team plays.

Is this team(at least on paper), right now, as good as the team that won the 2008 WS?

Will it be as good or better after Amaro finishes "tweaking"?

So far, there are more questions than answers.

[ae]

astonishing. if these decisions are at all indicative of Amaro's strategy, then get ready to wait a long longer than 28 years for another championship.

[whiskey]

I think that it would be a safe assumption that the strategy is not 100% Amaro's.

[Baumer]

Sad state of affairs. Team just won the world series, is upping ticket prices, and cannot roll the dice by offering arbitration to two valuable players! Worst case scenario is that Moyer and Burrell get a few million bucks more than last year and we complete our roster. Best case is that we get picks for our loss(es). This is a really frustrating move...

[king myno]

Why in the world would they choose to match Burrell at 3/36 down the line when they could have had him for sure at something around 1/15? Would they really rather owe the guy 21 million more dollars? If they aren't willing to risk even this little of a commitment to Burrell, my thoughts are that they have either a) another, better option or b) a desire to cut costs where possible to pay for all the raises. Does anyone think it's anything but b?

[king myno]

I don't see how this is anything but the door officially slamming shut on Pat Burrell.

[Reality101]

Join the real world boys we are entering some great times to make money not spend it.

[mike cunningham]

I'll address other comments (written mostly before the announcement) after I talk about the Moyer-Burrell situations.

1.) The loss of 4 high draft picks (were they not signing) is in excusable.
2.) The Moyer arb number couldn't be MUCH more than a player of his caliber regardless of his success this year. It would have seemed like well worth the risk -- given his age. I'm disappointed.
3.) I'm not as surprised about Burrell. It makes sense financially. But it does not baseball wise. That is more concerning. The only way it makes sense, is if they have a replacement option.

@clout -- in no way am I defending what the Marlins do. However, if you could prove that you can win a world championship once every 10 years (considering even odds puts every team at once every 30 years at winning a championship) with a 30 million dollar payroll, that's not a bad sucess rate. I'm not saying that's WHAT I want as a fan. I'm just saying that's pretty good.

I think you can and should spend money to improve your team. But if you think you can improve your team without spending MORE money, why not do that? But just because baseball has no REAL rule about how much money you can spend (save for the luxury tax) why is wrong to have a budget? Why is it wrong for a team to say? Look I can't risk spending to 10MM (Moyer) or 18MM (Burrell), when i'm looking at significant increases in payroll in other areas.

The other part of the point, is that maybe, just maybe, the Phillies are doing the RIGHT things to stay competitive (keeping a 2.75 attendance with an average of 87-89 wins per year) while winning championships every 5 to 10 years or so. The "All In" attitude just doesn't make fiscal sense, anymore. You get stuck with bad contracts and worse individuals on your team. Had we signed Pedro 4 years ago, some would have slept soundly for about 8 hours. 4 years later those fans still won't have a championship and crying about signing CC Sabathia.

It doen't make Baseball sense. If this was football, and the contracts weren't guaranteed it wouldn't matter.

I'm as disappointed as anyone that Moyer or Burrell won't be wearing Phillies pinstripes next year. And I'll be more than disappointed that they won't have sufficient or better replacements. But I understand the risks involved. And I don't blame them. While it might be "our money" in general. It's not really. That's just something you deal with. The cost of a fan is like taxation without representation (no offense JW). I get all that.

The worst part of baseball and which brings out the worst in fans is the lack of a controlled salary structure. No one on here, can speak to how much profit the Phillies make or any team. You can guess... but in 99% unless you were looking at the books or were able to take acturial tables of operating expenses for professional teams, travel and lodging, insurance, debt service on the stadium, etc. You won't know it, because they don't want the players to know it. Either way...

It is possible that the Phillies know what they are doing. And no matter how smart any of us think we are, it's very possible that we are all wrong. And they are right. (I know that's a Joe Banner kind of response.)

It's also possible that they "lucked out". But they still have the championship in their back pocket. And that speaks loudly that they know what they are doing.

[Reality101]

Mike, I believe it is the economy. We are going in reverse of everything this group of fans have ever experienced in their lifetime.

[mike cunningham]

From zolecki:

The Associated Press wrote that just two of 171 players who filed for free agency have agreed to contracts (Ryan Dempster and Jeremey Affeldt). And just 24 of them were offered salary arbitration. So I guess the Phillies aren't alone. For example, the Yankees didn't offer arbitration to Andy Pettitte, Bobby Abreu or Jason Giambi.

I wonder if we're going to see another "collusion"-type situation? Or perhaps rumblings of a lock out? When does the MLBPA deal end? It just seemed really odd that the players who were offered arb were the MOST likely candidates to sign elsewhere and those who weren't have already seen the market dry up for them and would have prayed for the arb award?

it will be interesting to see what shakes out...

[Brian G]

Any anger should be pointed at the front office. Amaro obviously was told by ownership that he couldn't go in the 130-135 million dollar range. Nothing he can do about that. I haven't seen their books, so I have no idea if ownership is being cheap or if that would've clearly put them in the red. But this isn't the Red Sox not signing Pedro or Damon to overpriced long term contracts, these were one year commitments that the World Series goodwill money could've been spent on.
Mike C had a good post.. oh well, we're the champs, so you can only get so upset over this.

[George S]

Baumer,
Worst case scenario is that Moyer and Burrell get a few million bucks more than last year and we complete our roster, AND neither player comes close to matching their 2008 seasons. $20m spent and the team regresses.

The general assumption seems to be that while Moyer will in no way match 2008, Burrell somehow will. So by offering arbitration, the Phillies are in a win-win situation: Burrell declines arb and moves on, Phillies getting draft picks. Burrell accepts, the Phillies have solved their RH bat and LF problem for 1 year. Win-win if PB 2009 is PB first half of 2008 and not second half of 2008.

If I'm a prospective bidder for FA Pat Burrell, what do I see? Positives?
HR power, a high OBP, and a generally accepted reputation as a hard worker and good teammate. He's relatively durable, especially if planned to be a DH.

Negatives? Defensively limited to 1B or DH realistically. (Neither of which are available in Phila) Average to below-average BA. Absolutely no speed.
Had a terrible second half in 2008. Slump or first signs of overall decline?
Seeks a 3 yr contract.
At 32 has probably already reached or passed his peaked performance years.

His chances of having a better 2009 than 2008? I would say no better than 50-50. 2010 and 2011? Anybody's guess.

Your best case scenario is right. But what were the chances that PB would decline arb? It's a gamble the Phillies' FO apparently didn't want to take.

[bay_area_phan]

Unless Amaro has some big surprise up his sleeve, like using Burrell's would-be salary to sign Burnett or Lowe, I think this is a pretty clear signal where management's priorities are this year. The owners feel like they gave us our title. Now it's time for them to enjoy the increased profits which they feel they deserve.

Putting myself into the shoes of the Phillies' cheap-skate owners, I suppose I can see why they didn't offer arbitration to Burrell. It's unlikely, but at least within the realm of possibility, that he would have accepted -- in which case, God forbid, they'd have to pay a high performing player whatever an arbitrator thinks he's worth. The Moyer move, however, is a real head-scratcher, even from the standpoint of Phillies' ownership. They've spent the last 2 weeks making it very well known that they're trying to resign him. Offering him arbitration would represent the best of both worlds because, if he declines and signs elsewhere, you get 2 high draft picks &, if he accepts, you get him on the one-year contract that they obviously want to give him. Hence, I can think of only 3 possible explanations for their failure to offer arbitration:

(1) they DON'T really want to sign him but are just making it look like they do because Moyer is a popular player with the fans;

(2) they DO want to sign him but, even on a one-year deal, they only want to pay him what THEY think he's worth (probably $6M or so) as opposed to what an arbitrator thinks he's worth (maybe $12M); or

(3) though they'd never admit it, they believe that two additional first round draft picks would be more of a liability than an asset since, after all, you have to pay first round picks big money and they rarely pan out.

I think the second and third explanations ring close to the truth. One thing's for sure. We now know that Ruben Amaro was lying through his teeth when he said, "It's not about the money; it's about the years."

[Baumer]

George S: You think it was the right move to not offer arb to both players then? I am not saying that Moyer and Burrell are guaranteed to put up similar numbers as they did last year. In fact, I think it is safe to say that we can expect slight regressions (perhaps more in Moyer's case) from both of them. However, I think it is absolutely the wrong move not to offer them arbitration. If they come back for one year at a higher price, so be it. Its a one year committment to two players that were good for us last year and probably will be fine for us this year. If they walk, we get a heap of high draft picks. I just do not see the logic here except a stingy front office that does not want to spend its World Series earnings.

[EastFallowfield]

24 out of 171 possible players were offered arbitration. It's not just our team that's too cheap to win?

[Hugh Mulcahy]

With Moyer, the decision to decline arbitration is most probably a simple assessment of leverage. They want him for 2 years at say $6mm per. If they offer him arb, he can accept and use a potential one year arb. award of say $8mm as a chip to up the cost of hte 2 yr deal. If he wins, and performs, the Phils pay more than they wanted and have to do it all over again next year to get a year 2. If he loses, they are still paying him $6mm. (These numbers are merely illustrative.) Why give him that leverage? Same thought process could be at work with Burrell. However, my gut tells me he's been gone all year.

[pblunts]

bayareaphan:

"3) though they'd never admit it, they believe that two additional first round draft picks would be more of a liability than an asset since, after all, you have to pay first round picks big money and they rarely pan out."

I posted this scenario on another thread and wondered aloud if I was being too cynical. Now I think we might be correct: in this scenario, Phils don't have to pay them and don't have to pay either two or four more draft picks, all while it being at least very likely they don't have to spend that combined $20M of Pat and Jamie next year. For ownership, that's simply perfect. They will go on and on about increased salaries for their other arb players and making a commitment to what they have. Blah, blah. Maybe we're jumping to conclusions, but sounds like the same old, same old. Let's make lots of money in the 5th biggest market (which is fine, they are entitled to it) but act like a mid market team with large market prices (not fine).

I'll say it now: Moyer isn't coming back. This either would have been done by now or they would have offered him arbitration.

And BTW, it's not too early to tell that Amaro is too smart (and arrogant?) for his own good. His "it's not the time for sentimental choices" comment while on some level might be true, is just stupid to say publicly and very, very telling. Obviously, that comment was directed at Pat and Jamie and if I'm either one of them, I don't think that comment settles well with me.

[GM-Carson]

Bye-Bye Burrell...an no compensation draft picks from the team that signs him...embarrassing.

[GM-Carson]

Bye-Bye Burrell...an no compensation draft picks from the team that signs him...embarrassing.

[bananagrabbers]

Besides the Phils being cheap, I think we have to remember that the economy sucks for all right now. Given those arb numbers for the entire league, I have to imagine that everyone thinks salary numbers will be down enough that players will consider their arb offers very seriously.

If Burrell might settle for 3 yrs and 30 million, why wouldn't he consider accepting arbitration here for half of that, then looking for his last contract next year?

[NEPP]

What a freaking joke. With Gillick gone there will be no more spending. They'll probably end up trading Howard and Hamels after they badmouth both for a few years in the press.

What a joke.

[ae]

It just seemed really odd that the players who were offered arb were the MOST likely candidates to sign elsewhere and those who weren't have already seen the market dry up for them and would have prayed for the arb award?

huh? so you're basically saying it's odd that GMs...act logically? (admittedly, that may be true in some cases.)

[kevmac]

I heard the news of declining to offer arbitration to both Jamie & Pat on my ride into work this morning. To say I am frustrated is understating my emotions.

I understand that there will be rising costs with so many of our players who are eligible for raises through arbitration. With the additional revenue from the playoffs, the team record setting attendance of 08, and the increase in ticket prices --- I would have hoped that this FO / ownership would be willing to have the payroll flexibility to keep both of these players via a one year commitment. The added insurance that we would get compensation picks if they signed else where would have also been very nice.

Also, aren't we relieved from paying a couple of salaries this coming season who weren’t on the team (Thome & Helms)? Lidge's raise will be offset partially by Gordan coming off of the books.

[clout]

Obviously this decision was based solely on the money, not the betterment of the team. Nixing the arb eliminates the risk of being forced into high contracts for Burrell and Moyer and -- perhaps most important -- saves them millions of dollars in signing bonuses that would be required to sign 3 extra first round picks. Bad for the team's future, yes, but good for the bottom line.

I sure hope the sports writers don't accept any future statements with a straight face that the team isn't making its decisions based on money.

[bathtubhippo]

the last thing i want to hear is any BS about the economy's impact on this decision. winning the world series and its requisite price hike, merch takes, and bandwagon ticket sale increases probably more than negates any downturn with regard to the phillies.

let's hope there is some better plan behind this, or we could be seeing the same kind of management that gave us most of the late 80s and early-mid 90s teams.

[baxter]

Maybe Amaro decided this roster was a little too good.

[jr]

Moyer will in no way match 2008,probably true in terms of wins. What about his influence in the clubhouse and with younger pitchers(which I guess is all of them) You can't put a price tag on that.

[Tony D]

Typical Phillies.

[baxter]

I have a feeling we're in for a few months of Rocco Baldelli vs Juan Rivera debates.

[Bob]

I thought winning the World Series gave a team a grace period? Is free agency over? Is there a direct correlation between payroll and winning? Raise your hand if you were excited when the Phillies acquired Jayson Werth.

[clout]

In fairness to Amaro, we'll have to see how this plays out thru the offseason. Although there's been no report of it, perhaps he really will use the money saved to go after someone like Lowe and the stronger pitching will balance a Jenkins/mediocre RH platoon in LF. Or perhaps he's pretty sure he can bring Moyer and Burrell back for what they made last year.

If we get Value Village replacements, however, then we'll know we've been betrayed.