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Wednesday, January 07, 2009

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Besides Donald, any of these guys make the big club?

Open spots will be extremely hard to come by this spring. It would take injury setbacks to see much of an opening. Majewski has a small chance. Giles has a small chance. Donald has an opportunity to showcase himself with this invite, but I don't think there's much urgency to bring him up just yet, or an opportunity. Sometimes, they'll play the hot hand. Can Bastardo make the club as the last arm out of the bullpen if he shines for 1 1/2 months in Clearwater? It's happened before with guys ...

Bastardo's chances got a hell of a lot higher with Romero out for the first 2 months. He basically went from non-existent/miniscule to maybe 5% with that incident.

I hope like h*ll that one of these years Bastardo does catch on with the big club, because I, for one, am dying to buy a jersey with his name on the back.

PhillyRocks: I did a "roster math" post last night. I'm assuming that Coste and Stairs will be traded -- Coste because we traded for Paulino & have an up-and-coming Marson; Stairs because Jenkins is untradeable & it would be insane to have 3 lefties on the bench, none of whom can hit a lick against left-handed pitching (then again, I think it's insane to have 3 lefties in the heart of our batting order, so who knows what Amaro thinks about constructing a bench?).

If Coste & Stairs go, that would leave 2 roster openings -- one in the bullpen & another on the bench. One or both of those openings (more likely the bullpen opening) could be filled by whatever we get in exchange for Stairs and/or Coste. If not, then Majewski probably has the inside track to the bullpen spot due to lack of competition, while Donald has the inside track to the bench spot due to his strong bat and Giles' inability to play any position other than 2nd base. The rest of these guys are just there so that the team will have enough bodies to play split squad games.

For what it's worth, Hoover has played just about every position in the minors, which makes him, basically, the Ironpigs utility guy.

It's nice to see Bastardo and Donald get their first shots; nice to see Tuffy and Slayden get to play a few, too.

As for these "vets," though: ugh.

The only place I want to see Bazardo on the mound is for the opposition against Chase Utley. BAM.

Marson didn't get an invite? Or do they just spread these out throughout the winter? Tough to imagine after his September callup and playoff run with the team Marson won't be with the club in ST.

Andy: Bazardo is the kind of guy you keep around in case all 5 starting pitchers get injured when the team bus crashes, and then the bus carrying the 5 replacements also crashes, injuring everyone aboard. Should that ever happen, you'll be glad we have Bazardo.

Just wanted to point out that the difference between this site and other outlets has never been clearer than my choice of headline. Everywhere else it's going to be Giles, Bastardo or Donald. Here its Ellison and Hoover. Happy to serve your needs everyone.

JW: And it's that difference that keeps us all coming back here day after day. Also, because you didn't make the obvious Hoover-sucking joke.

Jack,
Marson, like Carrasco are coming to ST because they are on the 40man roster already, these names are the non-roster invitees.

I really believe that Majewski will be a factor for this team by the end of the year. That is of course if he is healed. He was a good pitcher before he went down with injury and then he didn't get it checked right away and it got worse. If he's healthy, he'll pay dividends.

My dark horse for the roster would be Slayden if we weren't already deep with lefties in the outfield. He's a little older but has posted a good line over his minor league career .294/.377/.480

He'd be a good 4th or 5th outfielder in the bigs

Bay_Area

I think too many people get too caught up in the Lefty thing. It really doesn't matter if a guy can hit. 2 of those lefties hit lefties well.

I also agree Coste and Stairs are gone. Jenkins still has the best potential and could bounce back. Barajas had no problem this year after how bad he was last year.

Truth: You stole my thunder. Slayden has yet to find a league where he can't hit. Unfortunately his glove is made of iron and he's slow. I think he could be a Jack Cust-type AL DH, however. If I were the Phils I'd showcase him in ST and see if he can be dealt for a bullpen piece or righty bat off the bench.

PhillyRocks: "I think too many people get too caught up in the Lefty thing. It really doesn't matter if a guy can hit."

I guess that means Ryan Howard can't hit, huh?

Bastardo's BB/9 was 5 at Reading. His HR per 9 was 1.7. He's still an OK prospect but those are red flags.

p rocks, which of those LH hitters can hit Lefties? It certainly aint Dobbs or Jenkins...
Truth injection said, "Jeremy Slayden can be a nice 4th or 5th outfielder". How is that? I've heard this comment repeated over and over about this guy(only on Phillies blogs). He was left unprotected in the rule 5 draft and not one MLB team claimed him.

I know Stairs is under contract for $1M and almost inevitable he gets moved for one of those "future considerations" type deals in the near future.

Figure the Phils try to do the same with Coste but what are the terms of his deal?

Bastardo has caught some big time breaks in his path to making the roster. Swindel signed w the Brewers. Castro and Outman were traded. They were the LH relievers blocking a bullpen spot. Now JC playing in the WBC and then missing the 1st 50 games.

MG,
I believe Coste is still under team control, I don't think he is arbitration eligible yet either.

mikes77: Jack Cust was left unprotected by numerous teams and claimed on waivers a few more times after that before finally getting a full shot. I realize you don't believe in stats, but take a look at Slayden's minor league numbers. If his numbers don't fall off much in Triple A, he'll get a shot somewhere. His biggest problem is he's a below average fielder with a weak arm. I don't think he'll be as successful as Cust, he won't walk nearly as much or strikeout as much or hit as many HRs. But I think he could hit .280 with decent power as a 4th or 5th outfielder/DH type.

I like Slayden too and I agree with Truth that he would be a darkhorse to make the roster if we weren't already so heavy with left-handers. But we are, so he isn't.

Oh please. A 26 year old man playing in AA, who can't run or play defense, is going to be a good 4th or 5th outfielder. This Slayden nonsense is just a myth being passed around by the groupthinkers that read BL and PhPls.

Just read over at MLB.com that BOTH Smoltz and Baldelli are going to sign with the Red Sox tomorrow. The Smoltz deal is for 1 year @ $5.5 million with incentives that could bring the contract to upwards of 10 million. I didn't see anything on the length or dollar amount of the Baldelli deal.

Evidently Smoltzie isn't expecting the Braves to make the playoffs any time soon.

Yeah, Mikes, no 26 year old in AA, with limited speed and defensive abilities, has *ever* made it into the league as a bat off the bench of a DH. Ever!

2006 - 23 - SAL - .310/.381/.510
2007 - 24 - FSL - .287/.376/.458
2008 - 25 - AA - .298/.377/.480

Not quite sure why you're so quick to write those numbers off.

Mikes77: Ever heard of a guy named Chris Coste? He was in the minors until he was 33, posted consistently solid offensive numbers, and can neither run nor field. Yet he had a couple of pretty good seasons as a major league reserve. How about Greg Dobbs? He was in the minors until he was 29, posted consistently solid offensive numbers, and can neither run nor field. How about Dan Uggla? He was in the minors until he was 25, posted consistently solid offensive numbers, and can neither run nor field. The D-Backs thought so little of him that they left him unprotected in the Rule 5 draft and he ended up on the Marlins.

The scouts can be wrong in their assessments. If a guy has hit well at every level he has played at, he stands a good chance of hitting well in the majors as well.

The Red Sox must have a special dispensation to carry 35 guys on the team this year. By my count, adding Baldelli & Smoltz gives them 8 big league outfielders and 16 big league pitchers, not to mention the productive farm system. Manny's return is probably next.

When it comes to productive major league hitters who were totally written off by the scouts, the guy that always springs to mind is Mike Easler. He languished in the minors for 9 seasons because he was slow, unathletic, and poor defensively. By the time he got his first real shot in the majors, he was already 29. He went on to become a starting outfielder and hit .293/.349/.454 in a career that lasted more than a decade, mostly with the Pirates (although he did briefly play with the Phillies in the last year of his career).

Kind of off the topic, but I read an article the other day that absolutely blew me away. It's an article about the current situation of baseball in Cuba. It was written by Michael Lewis, who also wrote the book Moneyball. Here is the link - an interesting read.

http://www.vanityfair.com/politics/features/2008/07/cuban_baseball200807

Matt Stairs didn't play his first full season until 29, as well. He hit .298/.386/.582 (153 OPS+). He was a career .298/.377/.459 in the minors and was hitting .344/.401/.578 in 1996 in 51 games for the Edmonton Trappers. He hit .309/.407/.486 at age 26 for the AA New Britain Red Sox.

Slayden will probably not hit 250+ MLB HR, but that's not even what we're talking about here. He's only being mentioned as a possible 4th/5th OF one day.

Sophist, i've seen his stats. I also saw his stats from the AFL. Everybody hits in the AFL and he only hit .286, which is'nt special.

Guys want to compare him to Cust and Dobbs. Both those guys had major league experience by age 26. This guy has only played AA ball. I don't understand this Slayden legend, when he barely outhit Greg Golson(a 22 year old)... If Slayden was hitting .320 w average power, no speed, no arm, no glove and waay too old for his level, I could understand optimism for his bat.
The guy hits .290. That's nothing for his age.

BAP, I believe you posted some incorrect information earlier. You said Dobbs played in the minors until age 29. If I'm not mistaken, Dobbs is 29 right now. He has'nt played in the minors in 2 and a half years.

Sophist, another thing about comparing Slayden to Dobbs... Dobbs is'nt a 4th outfielder. He is an infielder who can play outfield. He has been listed as a 2b/3b his whole career. Dobbs has similar limitations to Slayden, but in order for Sayden to be looked at as legit, he would have to show MORE power as an OF. Dobbs and Coste play positions that dont require that.

Mikes - I was mostly responding to this statement

Oh please. A 26 year old man playing in AA, who can't run or play defense, is going to be a good 4th or 5th outfielder

which seems to me overly cynical.

we can debate the future of Slayden in particular. I don't know if he has a bright future, but I wouldn't be as dismissive as you of the possibility that he could find himself a home on the bench of an AL club.

Mikes - I didn't compare Slayden to Dobbs.

Slayden likely goes to Lehigh Valley this season where he once again hits for average with moderate pop, and then becomes 5th outfielder for Phils in 2010.

Bastardo has a slight chance at becoming 2nd lefty out of the 'pen, but I doubt the Phils will trust him (namely Manuel).

Ellison and Hoover are good for organizational depth in case of a 15 day DL stint.

Donald is a true prospect in my opinion and has a golden opportunity to rock people's socks off in the spring.

Bazardo is intruguing because he's still young, and he may still be able to be molded into a useful reliever.

Goosewich is only invited because they need a buttload of catchers in the spring.

I agree that Majewski, if he can prove health, may make the team. I see either him or Koplove filling the role of Seanez.

Sophist said to mike: "Not sure why you're so quick to write those numbers off."

It's cause he's not very smart.

Slayden has hit well in every league he's been in, and he shows the ability to get on base. He has some power and a decent strikeout rate.

Mike's acting like BAP, clout, and I are claiming Slayden to be an everyday outfielder. No one is doing that. You're 4th or 5th outfielder is a guy who gets a few at bats and is an occasional pinch hitter. If he hits well in Triple A he'll get some interest somewhere. The issue with him, and probably why no one claimed him, is he is a little older so there is a wait and see approach.

It's funny to me to see some of the same guys that dismiss John Mayberry's chances of success this year are the same guys who would give Slayden the 5th OF spot. Mayberry is 24 and had an OPS over 1.000 against LH pitching in AAA(plus he is good defensively at LF, RF and 1b). Jeremy Slayden is 26 has, ONE tool, and never played above AA, but he will ne the 5th OF in 2010. Again, nonsense being thrown out until just to be spectacularly wrong.

T injection, said "because he's very smart".

That's funny too. He started the discussion by stating that Jeremy Slayden "is my darkhorse to make the roster THIS season". Who is Slayden going to beat out Ibanez, Jenkins, Stairs or Dobbs. You are genius, truth injection.

From the last thread~

Brian G~

In answer to your question as to what a reasonable payroll should be, "reasonable" is doing whatever you have to do to maintain a playoff-caliber team and paying to going rate for the players you need.

Example: The Yanks screwed everything by the giving out the contracts they did for Sabathia and Burnett. That skews the market upward. A guy like Lowe should get more than he would have gotten if the Yanks acted more like a normal organization.

If the Phils wanted or want Lowe, why don't they seriously (if they have not done so)see what it would take to get him? Why does re-signing Moyer preclude them from getting him?
Because they set a budget and won't go over it. But what they should do is try to be creative as possible and make it work. People on budgets do that all the time. I'd much rather see Lowe here than with the Mets, which is where he'll most like end up.

Heck, we didn't even get DeRosa (who was traded for nothing), jerry Hairston Jr, or now Rocco Baldelli. So where is the RH bat, the reliever or 2, and the starter? And I do agree with you that Happ should be given every opportunity, but I do believe a more establised starter would better suit them.

The other problem is this. The arb cases are going to cause the payroll to rise a great deal. Why is it that they didn't get some of the players who are arb-eligable signed to multi-year deals sooner (Werth, Vic, Hamels)? Because they just didn't want to. That's why.

So, instead of raiding a weak market like they should have like you say, they sit on their thumbs while players who can help them sign elsewhere.

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