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Monday, March 02, 2009

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Love that picture. He probably thought he looked so cool at the time.

Jason, thank you. That Happ photo always brings a smile to my face. I suppose they pay him enough to buy a comb these days.

Incidentally, your third last sentence should read:

He will reportedly "compete" for a spot in their rotation.

Punctuation is important.

Poor fella. That picture will never go away.

"I suppose they pay him enough to buy a comb these days."

I think it's become moot.

I had originally wanted to run the picture of Eaton with frosted tips, but couldn't find it.

I love that picture of Happ. It needs to be in the Phillies media guide, haha.

I am having a lot of fun with this fifth starter competition, mostly because they all seem to be competent options. I still think Happ is the best choice (although I am a fan of Carrasco, I just don't see them starting him this year in the majors.) It is adding an extra layer of excitement besides seeing who plays better, J.J. Furmaniak or Jorge Velandia.

Ja Happ just looks like a Flyer in that picture

phargo beat me to it. a comb seems to be the last thing happ-y needs anymore. a bic would be more like it, it seems.

a bit OT, but is Drabek the only other current minor league arm (other than CC) who may see the mound as a starter before 2010-11? (I'm not including Happ-y or KK due to their MLB experience already).

danger - The others with a shot of showing up are the ones we're seeing in ST: Carpenter, Bastardo, Naylor. The really good pitching prospects (and there seem to actually be some) look to arrive in 2010 at the earliest.

I don't know how much longer I can hold out on getting a Bastardo jersey. I might just have to go the customizable route and just pick a random number for it. He's taking too long to get to the bigs with that awesome of a name!

Andy-

I'm aware of Naylor, Carpenter, and Bastardo for sure. Just wondering aloud that if we take the current contracts/team controlled players (Hamels, Moyer, Blanton, Happ, KK) and "the prospect" CC into account with the uncertain status after '09 of Myers....there isn't a ton of room in the rotation conceivably.

Drabek just seems as though to be the only one with a ceiling that might cause the Phils to make a move to accomodate his ability.

I see Eaton doing well against the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays batting orders.

and, oh yeah, Carpenter kinda stinks. AAAA starter for life.

I wonder if the cummerbund matched the shirt?

Question: How bitter would you be if Eaton went and did farely well for the O's this season. 25-30 starts, 150-180 ip, 10-12 wins, 4.5-5 era?

GM-C- I'm glad he's not a Phillie and glad he's in the AL.

Glad he's in the AL? I wish he was in the NL East so we can boost our run totals.

Hah, i agree with ZT. We should have told the Nats we'd pay them even more than the $8.5 if they would have taken him.

We would finally get some worth out of his contract if our offense got to tee of on him about 4 times a year.

Ona somewhat related note, I read that the Royals signed Bruce Chen to a minor league deal as well. Ha!

Good to see the boys are in midseason form with RISP.

Pablo Ozuna on fire, batting .833.

Bruntlett running wild, 3 sb.

The Fielding Bible II came out a few weeks ago in stores. The new development is their Runs Saved stat, which is how they determine the best players. Leaders by position in 2008:

Pitcher - Kenny Rogers, 15 runs saved
Catcher - Jason Kendall/Jose Molina, 12
First Base - Mark Teixeira, 17
Second Base - Chase Utley, 33
Third Base - Adrian Beltre, 24
Shortstop - Jimmy Rollins,15
Left Field - Carl Crawford/Willie Harris, 13
Center Field - Carlos Beltran, 21
Right Field - Franklin Gutierrez, 22

Best defensive middle infield in baseball belongs to the Phils. Compare that with their batting stats and they're far and away the best duo in the bigs.

Chase Utley saved more runs on defense than any player in baseball? wow

Yeah - I wish i had the entire list of 2B. Whatever system they have must have really underestimated the average 2B which made a good 2B like Utley equate to a GREAT D player.

If you look at SS, they have the lowest leader, which makes you think that the standard for SS must be much greater than its other middle infielder coutnerpart and keeps their number generally low.

Anyone know how that unearned Carrasco run was scored? Or at least the specifics of the Bruntlett error that led to Aaron Hill's RBI double?

Danger - Again; any of the guys likely to arrive this year have little upside. But the year after and beyond there may be some with significant talnet. Also, Drabek is not at all likely to get here before 2010. Drabek has very limited minor league experience and has shown, actually, not much.

Andy,

Appreciate the insight. Anyone have any details on how bad Carrasco's shelling was today?

GM: same way I felt about Gavin Floyd's breakout season in '08. Who cares?

I said something similar with Outman last year, and I'll say it again this year with regard to Carrasco: I'm honestly glad he had a bit of a rough outing today. Two reasons: (1) it'll give the Phils a chance to see how he bounces back from a bad start; and (2) it probably saves us from the Phils saying, "Hey, this kid hasn't given up an earned run in ST, let's keep him around as the 5th starter" (which I think would stunt his development).

Friar: I don't see how that would stunt Carrasco's development. Keeping him around as a long reliver that pitches every ten days or so, that would stunt his development. A start every fifth day would be great providing he's ready. That's the million dollar question. Is he ready yet? I will be shocked if he comes north. It would take some combination of a phenomenal spring by him and a putrid spring by three other pitchers. Highly unlikely.

"Anyone have any details on how bad Carrasco's shelling was today?"


Well, looking at the game notes, it says the wind is blowing out to right, at 20 MPH and gusting higher. So, I would guess, a few flyballs, got up in the jet stream and left the building today, for both the Phil and Jay pitchers.

Of slightly more concern, was Happ and Carrasco's command today, which doesn't seem as sharp as it was in their first outing. But, both got 3 innings of work in, so that is all that truly matters this early in the spring.

Bruntlett dropped a ball in the outfield for a three-base error while Carrasco was pitching, leading to a big inning.

Isn't the fastball-changeup the combination Carrasco is best at right now? If so, I don't think getting him into a rotation with Jaime Moyer would stunt his growth much at all. Being around Moyer seems to have helped Hamels quite a bit.

Utley is easily the MVP of this team year in and year out when you consider all facets of his play.

Howard going deep again I see. Very nice to see the big man get to form early, ala 2006 ST.

Donc: I don't believe Carrasco's ready yet, which is why I think he's best-served starting in Lehigh Valley. More than anything, I fear what I like to call "Homer Bailey syndrome" with good prospects, i.e. rushing them to the majors before they're ready and shattering their confidence in the process.

Hibachi: yes, Carrasco is primarily a fastball/change-up guy right now, but unlike Hamels, neither pitch is so dominant that he can get away with just those two. I think that more time in Triple-A will help him hone his curve and hopefully improve his command.

Ryan Howard is my preseason pick for 2009 NL MVP. I see huge season from him again. Not quite the high average of '06, but .275-.285 is within reason.

Carrasco getting hit hard in a spring training outing is next to completely meaningless. He isn't in the running for the 5th starter spot.

As for Bruntlett as an OF, it perplexes why the Phils insist on continuing this. It really needs to end especially if Cholly continues to insist on using him as a 'defensive replacment' in LF this season. Arguably Cholly's most foolish move that he made consistently since he became the Phils' manager.

could the extended "experiment" of the Gnome in CF be a hint that Bruntlett (and not Stairs/Jenkins or Mayberry) will be the 5th outfielder.

I think Cholly will find every reason he can to keep Coste aboard.

Jenkins is making the roster because of his price tag. I don't understand why people think the Phils can:

1. Trade him
2. Cut him and eat another $7M+

Jenkins was by alot accounts a good guy, decent enough defensively, and likely to rebound a little bit offensively.

Mayberry is having a pretty good spring so far. Who would leave if he sticks?

danger lad - I'm think not. For one, Vic isn't with the team anymore (WBC). Bruntlett is probably just getting AB. Mayberry played in RF today anyway.

fljerry: Presumably Stairs, who I think is going to be traded regardless what happens with Mayberry. Having your 3 best pinch hitters all be left-handed would be crazy. Having your 3 best pinch hitters all be left-handed, when your 3-4-5 hitters are all left-handed as well, would be insanity.

From a Paul Hagen story updating us on Adrian Cardenas and Josh Outman:

"Phillies minor leaguers are required to be cleanshaven and wear their pants high."

I'm glad to see this organization has its priorities straight.

In a way, it would be a shame if Stairs gets traded because he's probably a better pinch hitter than Jenkins and you'll never get fair value for him; you'll only get a Fabio Castro type of prospect who isn't even good enough to make the major league roster. Unfortunately, though, Jenkins' salary makes him untradeable &, with 2 left-handers already on our bench, the extra roster spot that would be created by trading Stairs would have more value to the team than Stairs himself.

BAP- Stairs might be a better PH maybe than Jenkins but really can't be counted on to play much in the OF. With no DH, he is a liability on your average NL roster.

I actually think Jenkins will play a bit better this season too. If you look at all the peripheal stuff, Jenkins was a lad unlucky with his BABIP. My bet is that Jenkins has a modest offense rebound .255/.315/.420. Nothing to write home abut but a modest improvement.

I just hope that Jenkins can give Werth a rest against a tough a righty occasionally, be a tolerable PH option, and spell Ibanez late defensively. If he can do that and give the Phils an OPS of .730-.740 in 200-250 ABs, they can live him as the 4th OF.

Just some news and notes through the first couple weeks of spring training.

-andruw Jones 8 strikeouts in 9 Ab's so far, ouch.

- Mayberry hopefully can continue with his consistant numbers and we may have found our bat off the bench and sorry to say bye bye to Mr. Stairs.

"Having your 3 best pinch hitters all be left-handed would be crazy. Having your 3 best pinch hitters all be left-handed, when your 3-4-5 hitters are all left-handed as well, would be insanity."

Correct-a-mundo. Stairs is going to be gone. The 4 guys off the bench will be Bruntlett, Dobbs, Jenkins and Mayberry.

MG: Good post. I agree with every word you said.

I've always liked Matt Stairs and, after last year, he'll forever have a place in Phillies lore. But, with only 5 openings on our bench, and Jenkins, Dobbs, & the backup catcher already accounting for 3 of those spots, I think the last 2 spots both need to be filled by right-handed bats. I'd love to see Donald & Mayberry win those 2 spots, but I'm resigned to the fact that one of the spots is already reserved for Bruntlett.

"-andruw Jones 8 strikeouts in 9 Ab's so far, ouch."
.
.
tommy, sounds like he's cooked.

Abnd Scott Boras might be wondering why Frank MCCourt (Dodgers' owner) is getting a little frustrated with the Manny Ramirez talks? After he passed this trash off on LA last season?

Those 8 Ks are costing the Dodgers over $15MM over the next several years.

If Scott Boras weren't a baseball agent he'd be a great con-man.

AWH, yup. Sorry did't read his stat sheet today, he is including today 9 SO's in 13 AB's for a smooth .214/.154/.154.

.214/.154/.154.

Explain how it is possible to have an OBP lower than a BA.

Though I have only attended the last two games in person the most impressive new bats have been Mayberry against lefthanded pitching and Slayden against right handed pitching. If this were the NFL with no guarenteed contracts and the 25 roster were to be announced tomorrow the best Phils bench would be Mayberry as the right handed bat, Dobbs and Slayden the lefthanded bats, Bruntlett utility and the backup catcher.

In the last two games Mayberry and Slayden have been worth the price of admission. With a strong wind blowing to left at Disney Slayden drove a frozen rope to right center for double and today took one out to right through a strong wind blowing to left in Dunedin. Mayberry drives the ball hard on the line to left including fouls against lefthanded pitching. He can run as well, picking up a steal yesterday. It's amazing to see that 6'6" frame in motion. Unlike Golson he plays with fluid baseball athleticism. Think Dave Winfiied. While Golson always reminded me of a gifted natural athlete trying to learn baseball moves.

Andy, not sure - if you get thrown out stretching a single into a double, is that counted as not getting on base?

Andy: I wondered the same exact thing.

****Andy, not sure - if you get thrown out stretching a single into a double, is that counted as not getting on base?****

I believe that is actually correct.

Well, I see everyone focusing on stats and making conclusions after, what, 6 games? mvptommy and dull have declared that Mayberry made the team. Some things never change.

P.S. Dull, you are right on Slayden. Guy has hit everywhere. Still waiting for him to find a place where he can't hit. AL teams should take note.

I'm fairly sure a player who gets tagged out stretching a single to a double is awarded a single. Check out §10.06, esp. the language in §10.06 (c) and (d) which infer that a player tagged is credited with a hit according to the last base safely reached.

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/downloads/y2008/official_rules/10_the_official_scorer.pdf

Oh, I see I didn't read the source of the question and answered the wrong question.

In the same link, §10.21(f) states:

(f) On-base percentage, divide the sum of hits, bases on balls and times hit by pitch by
the sum of at-bats, bases on balls, times hit by pitch and sacrifice flies.

Comment: For the purpose of computing on-base percentage, ignore instances of a batter being awarded first base on interference or obstruction.

OBP includes sacrifice flies and AVG does not. So a player with more SF than BB and HBP will have a lower OBP than AVG.

"Kris Benson has been scratched from his scheduled start Monday because of lower back tightness."

I wonder if posters on the Rangers blog are obsessively following Benson's every move the way Beerleaguers did last year?

Never had more bandwidth been spent on so little.

OBP also includes plate appearances that result in bases due to interference or obstruction in its denominator. Just to be clear (while making 4 posts on the topic, spending much bandwidth on little):

AVG: Hits divided by [PA - (SF, BB, HBP, INT)]

OBP: Hits, BB, HBP divided by PA + INT

Player A has 30 PA with the following results:

10 H
1 HBP + BB
4 SF
0 INT
15 outs

AVG: .400 (10 hits in 25 AB)
OBP: .367 (11 reaches in 30 PA)

Oh geez. Ignore the INT in the OBP calculations per Comment to §10.21(f).

Hopefully this isn't hopelessly muddled.

Clout - Agreed. It is ridiculous to make any conclusions about stats from the first week of spring training at all. It amazes that fans continue to get really excited any stats generated from the first few weeks in spring training.

Frankly I care much more about Feliz/Utley progress and the injuries that pop up including Durbin who looks like he won't pitch again for at least 2 weeks because of that pulled hamstring.

According to the AP, Nomar is choosing between the A's and the rocker. I thought he was going to decide last week?

re: cj henry and basketball, Danny Ainge was a sruggling 2nd baseman for the Blue Jays before swiyching to basketball before winning a championship with the Boston Celtics - will CJ Henry end up on the Sixers and lead them to a championship? ?

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