Comments

[ZT]

God if Howard and Utley have those years who would be MVP? I don't think Howard will be that good, but I think Werthy will be a little better than that.

[Andy]

Very nice graphic. Don't tell me you found this on Google image search.

I was wondering how long into the season Junior will looks up, in the midst of a sudden epiphany, slap his right palm to his forehead and say, "V-8! I could've had an Ohman!"

[drake]

howard bats .300?? i certainly hope so.

[J. Weitzel]

Very good team.

[NEPP]

I think the average is about 30 points too high on Howard and about 30 points too low on Ruiz.

[Doc]

Nice graphic J, good stuff.

[J. Weitzel]

Upon further review, considering the offense, I've decided that they're good enough to win the National League.

[NEPP]

If the offense comes through like those predictions, they'll win 100 games.

[MyersAtTheBat]

giving Ruiz a pretty short stick there... maybe the power numbers are right, but i bet he hits .250 this season. i think last year was a sophomore slump during which his mom got sick. he's hit at every other level. i think he bounces back this season.

[J. Weitzel]

I think they could win 100 games.

[NEPP]

I could see them conceivably winning anything from 80 to 100 games depending on if everything breaks right or if everything breaks wrong. I see them coming in around 89 wins and taking the NL East.

[J. Weitzel]

Weaknesses are bench, parts of pen and catcher. I don't know that we'll see much improvement from Chooch. Probably some.

[NEPP]

Any improvement from Chooch will likely be neutralized by the continued age decline from Coste.

[Valo]

Murphy reports Cairo added to roster. No surprise last minute move.

[kevmac]

Love the optimism JW!!!

Any beerleaguers going to the game tomorrow have a free beverage at K7 in the linc parking lot (we'll be by silver pick-up with a small grill & set of washers tailgate game).

Go Phills 2009!!!!

[clout]

Looks like they'll enter the season without a backup outfielder. I'm very surprised.

[NEPP]

I'm stunned...not having a legit backup OF could hurt us. No defensive replacements for Ibanez...we're screwed if any of the OFs go down for an extended time.

[clout]

JW: Reasonable predictions except for Ibanez 99 RBI. If Utley and Howard combine for 82 HR and 265 RBI as you predict, Ibanez would have to hit .500 with RISP to get that many.

All depends on who stays healthy, but I think the Phils, Mets, Cubs and Dodgers are the 4 best teams in the NL and I'll be shocked if one of them isn't in the World Series.

Another prediction: If the Nats get even mediocre pitching they will be the surprise team of the NL.

[Steve Jeltz]

Is it really all that much different than last year?

Bruntlett was Burrell's caddy and the 25th man (Taguchi) hardly ever played. I'd prefer to have a true OF be Ibanez's caddy, but I don't think it's a major issue. Or something that can't be addressed during the season.

[J. Weitzel]

Clout: I was looking at the same thing just now. No way he gets that many RBIs if the other two hit like I think they'll hit.

[Benson]

I was wondering whether anyone could shed some light on a report I had seen. It basically was about a statistical analysis of the catcher's defensive abilities, and this analysis rated Ruiz as one of the worst defensive backstops in the game.

According to what I see, Ruiz is a fantastic defensive catcher! What are the statisticians seeing that I am not?

Just curious

[J. Weitzel]

Both Werth and Ibanez should get about 90 RBIs.

[YankeeFan]

wow that's an awesome team!!! Now, where are the phillies?

[NEPP]

clout, I disagree slightly on that. Ibanez will likely get the same ABs as Burrell and here are Pat's totals for the past 5 years:

2008 - 86
2007 - 97
2006 - 95
2005 - 117
2004 - 84

Average=95.8 RBI per season

So it might be a tad high but its possible...maybe.

[NEPP]

If we score 900 runs, then its possible to have 4 players with around 100 RBI like you have ...don't forget Werth with 98 (something I could see with his power)

[J. Weitzel]

I think I went too high with both Werth and Ibanez. I'm confident on the rest.

[mike cunningham]

Burrell has more power which helps him knock in more runs. But I imagine his drop in RBI last year, had a WHOLE lot to do with Howard's significant drop in getting on base. If Howard is hitting .280 (or egads .300 like JW says) and walking again... there will be enough opportunities for Ibanez to crack 100. I don't think Werth will put up the numbers you suggest... despite his great spring.

[bay_area_phan]

Continued from the last thread on the subject of Cairo as 25th man:

Sophist did a fine job of pointing out the general ridiculousness of Mac's argument. I will focus only one one specific coment: "the people who sit on their computers are speaking of Jason Ellison as the savior of the WFC."

Not one person said that Jason Ellison -- or any other 5th outfielder -- was some kind of "savior." What we said, in fact, was that it's a pretty sorry state of affairs when Jason Ellison is on your major league roster but, since he can actually play defense, he would probably be a better choice than Cairo. When you have to grossly mischaracterize the other side's argument in order to make your point, it's a sure sign that you know your own argument is weak.

[NEPP]

Its not exactly that unusual. Remember 2007:

Howard - 137
Utley - 103
Burrell - 97
Rollins - 94
Rowand - 89

That's 5 players pretty close to 100.

[NEPP]

I know right, BAP. I love when people get mis-quoted. No one ever said Ellison as the 5th OF is a good thing...I said that in one wacky scenario I could see it happening. Considering the joke of a 5th OFs we've had, Ellison wouldn't have been out of place.

Roberson
Bourn
Taguchi

etc.

But yeah, I said "savior" Please don't misquote me, have the balls to make a legitimate argument.

[Tony]

anyone who watched the exhibition today on TV, was Burrell's HR in the 1st a meatball gimme pitch from Hamel's?

[ST]

it was a fastball down the middle at 86 on a 1-2 count. not sure if it was a gimme though

[clout]

NEPP: Mike C. stole my thunder. You can't compare Burrell to Ibanez. They are different type of hitters (i.e. strong power vs. mild power). Ibanez will NOT knock in 99 runs. I don't think he'll knock in 90.

[Tony]

ST: Thanks

I think it was a gift for him then. They had Burrell in the lead-off spot and playing RF, but pulled him after the top half of the first before he could even take the field. I was disappointed because i was sitting the RF corner.

[bigmyc]

I love the 40's style (yes?) look about that...however, whatever happened to J.C.? Did he test positive for something that he bought at CVS this week?

[Kevin]

Looks good! I like it!

[Tray]

If you don't make it big in sportswriting, I think you could have a hell of a career as a graphic designer. As for the predictions, some are a little bullish but I don't think any are blatantly off-base.

[NEPP]

Career RISP (AVG/OBP/SLG):

Burrell - .263/.386/.467
Ibanez - .305/.380/.493

Ironically, Ibanez is more likely to get a hit and has a higher slugging percentage. Burrell is more likely to take a Walk though.

I say it would be wash.

[J. Weitzel]

J.C. has been added with asterisk. Cairo also added.

[Ben Rivera]

Ryan Howard is suspended for the first 50 games too? We are screwed.

[EastFallowfield]

Yo, new thread

[Rich]

Awesome look to that document of predictions, it's a classic! It reminds me of an old program that you would see at the Hall of Fame or something. I think we are starting to see history out on the field for the Phillies as a couple of them could be Hall of Famers someday.

I was at today's game (Sat) afternoon taking in all the delicious smells of the ballpark. Does anyone notice how much better hot dogs and popcorn smell when you're out at Citizens Bank Park? It almost calls you by name as you walk by the food areas!

Stop by my Phillies site, at fightinphillies.com and check out some of my photos from Game 2 vs. Tampa ...

[thephaithful]

NEPP: you can't use 2005 and 2004 when burrell was hitting cleanup. Look at 2006-2008, Burrell has 93,91,84 RBIs behind Howard and Utley.

Ibanez could be batting a good deal in the 6 hole too.

Burrell saw 66 expected RBIs in both 2007 and 2008. If Ibanez sees the same, then he'll be right around 84-86 RBIs.

[J. Weitzel]

I've just reinstated Howard.

[paco]

How many innings are you projecting for Park? It seems like you think he's going to last most of the way in the rotation.

[J. Weitzel]

paco: that would be accurate. Most of the way.

[Bob]

I'll take this right now and everyone can go home winners. This also looks like a tight race between Chase & Ryan for MVP, and Cole in the thick of things for Cy Young. Great way to start the season, terrific graphics.

Bookmarking this to refer back to and either complain or extol the genius of Jason.

[Sean]

If Ruiz hits that prediction, and is on this team after May - we're doomed.

[Mac Tonight]

Well, Jenkins was released and Cairo is the 25th man, so I suppose the Phillies are wrong and all of you are right.

..but then again, my opinion is "ridiculous".

[denny b.]

My big prediction for the season, is that the Pigs' go from worst to first, and win the IL crown this year. Iron Pig Fever, baby!!!

If Hamels makes 30+ starts this year, the Phils win the East going away. His health, is the #1 key. If he is healthy and anywhere near the top of his game, it shouldn't be close.

They are much better on offense (provided Utley can be healthy all year; which he was not last year and Ibanez is an upgrade over Burrell) and an entire year with Myers and Blanton in the rotation, makes it stronger.

Lidge won't be perfect, but he will still be very good. Madson contiunes his late-season run, as one of the best 8th inning guys in baseball. Romero comes back in May, refreshed, and strong in the 2nd half. And, the Chan Ho Park signing, will make Ruben look like a genius, by season's end. May not always be as a starter, but Park will prove his worth in both capacity's this year (Starter early in season; then reliever late???)

And, by June 1, Ibanez will have everyone forgetting about losing Burrell. He might even push, for an All-Star spot

Eventually, a right-handed bat will be added and he will play a big role, in the 2nd half and playoffs.

And, a starting pitcher will go down at some point, throwing Carlos Carrasco into the mix, during the 2nd half of the season. Kendrick came up in 2007, and got it done. Happ came up in 2008, and got it done. In 2009, it will be CC's turn to come up big, late in the year.

The Braves and Marlins both are in the Wild Card hunt all the way, both winning 85+ games. Braves end up eaking out the WC, with 88 wins.

The Mets will flop, with a serious lack of starting pitching and K-Rod shows, he is running on fumes with his lack of velocity. They are old, at too many key spots, and will not have to worry about a late September collapse this year...they will be out of playoff contention by mid September.

Phils win the East. Cardinals win the Central. Dodgers win the West. Braves win the WC. Dodgers get revenge in playoffs, and beat Phils in 6 games in NLCS.

And, one last one....the Phils start slow in April. That can never change, can it? They are still the Phils.

[Desiree]

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