Notes: Ruiz making a case for All-Star consideration

Odds and ends from everyone's favorite, fire-hot baseball team.

-- After 107 plate appearances, Carlos Ruiz leads all National League catchers with a .912 OPS, thanks to a terrific .431 on-base percentage and 18 walks. If you go down the list of catching choices, there's a case to be made for Ruiz to earn an All-Star bid, though his prospects are hurt by some of the bigger names. Pitching coach Rich Dubee said a few weeks ago he thinks the 30-year-old postseason hero will one day earn a trip to the mid-summer classic. In the meantime, readers have started kicking around the notion that Ruiz's knack for getting on base might be better suited at the top of the lineup as Jimmy Rollins continues to struggle. A crazy idea, sure, but a 167-point difference in OBP between the No. 1 and No. 8 hitters is getting tough to ignore.

-- Speaking of catchers around the league, Jason Jaramillo, who was once a highly regarded prospect in the Phillies' system, has fit in well in his new home in Pittsburgh. The 26-year-old backstop is hitting .282/.365/.412 with two homers, getting a chance he really wouldn't have received in Philadelphia. Jaramillo's career appeared to have stalle at Triple-A, but the Pirates have been able to tap into some of that potential, getting the better end of the deal that sent Ronny Paulino to the Phils this winter.

-- Rumors have the Phillies checking into Vicente Padilla and Tom Glavine. Whether that's true remains to be seen; I have serious doubts they'd revisit Padilla. Whatever the case, my simple response would be "not at the expense of J.A. Happ's continued progression in the rotation." Happ has a 2.48 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and hasn't lost. He deserves a good, long spin, possibly through the rest of the season. Meanwhile, they can afford to experiment with their fifth starter. Despite Antonio Bastardo's encouraging start Tuesday, the jury is obviously still out.

-- We touched on Jimmy Rollins' struggles earlier. The longer this carries on - and June 6 is getting awfully late to burden the top of the lineup with a .593 OPS - the more I check up on gritty Jason Donald and slick-fielding Freddy Galvis in the minor leagues. So far, nothing doing. Donald hasn't been hitting, but I've read encouraging things about his fielding. Galvis, 19, has been sidelined since May 6 for the Class-A Threshers. J-Roll's future in Philadelphia is something I never, ever questioned. But now, I might.

-- And speaking of the Threshers, Dominic Brown, Kyle Drabek, Yohan Flande, Fidel Hernandez, and Tim Kennelly were selected to the Florida State League All-Star Game. That's all for now. We'll be back later tonight for the battle between never-say-die lefties Jamie Moyer and Eric Milton.

Comments

[Tony D]

Choch is slowly moving up my list of favorite Phillies. The guy pisses intensity.

[J. Weitzel]

He certainly does. I bet such an intense stream produces a nice, frothy head.

[J.P.]

Ruiz is hitting well as a number 8 hitter and playing good D as usual. Your crazy if you think he would continue his success at the number 1 spot, and even crazier if you think Jason Donald is a better solution than Jimmy down the stretch. Lets not forget he just helped win us a title and no matter what he is hitting always brings his glove. Sometimes I wonder if you people even know baseball at all

[That Dude]

Galvis is 18 and hitting 250 in high A. Not awful, especially for his age, but you are taliing at least 4-6 years away unless he makes a big leap next year in peformance...

ON another note, to give you an idea how far the minor league system has come..during the game last night I did some analysis and did you know that of the the first 10 rounds from 1980-89 the Phillies produced NO major leaguer regulars. NONE, ZERO, ZILCH. Not even a good guy that we traded away. Again, this is only in the first 10 rounds, anything good that happens after that is luck.

[4daysrest.com]

On a strictly-numbers basis, Ruiz should be earning some consideration. He's also got a friggin' gun behind the plate and throws out everybody and their mother. The problem is that it's tough to make a name for yourself as an 8-hole hitter, and everything you do is done quietly. He's not really a power hitter, but he can smoke doubles with the best of them. It'll be interesting to see if he gets some consideration in any of the next few years. We're definitely seeing improvement though from a guy I had pegged to be a .250-.260 career hitter.

[J. Weitzel]

Thanks J.P. Go back and read my post.

[bay_area_phan]

Ruiz's All Star hopes are also hurt by all the time he lost to injury. He still doesn't even have 100 ABs on the season. Still, it's a very weak year for NL catchers, as all of the usual All Star suspects are struggling or injured. Ruiz's defense is as good as almost anyone's and, if he keeps up his good hitting, I could see Cholly picking him as a backup. They're the WFC & have the 2nd best record in the league. They ought to have more than just the 2 obvious All Stars.

[Paul]

Leave it to Beerleaguer to steal my thunder and point out that Ruiz is having a really good year!

Regarding starting pitching, Phillies' ERA is 2.71 in the past 7 days -- third best in the NL. I don't see Amaro making a trade right now.

As for JRoll, I think the reason why you won't see Donald traded is because they want to plug him in at SS or 3B. And with the way Feliz and Rollins are playing, picking up the former's option for next year and trading the latter is starting to make sense. Felix is due $5M in 2010 if they pick up the option; Rollins is due $7.5M in 2010 and $8.5M ($2M buyout) in 2011. If Rollins keeps this up, I'd settle for Donald's steady defense and weak hitting at a fraction of what it costs Rollins to provide the same.

[Dave X]

Phillies by wOBA (Weighted On Base Average), by positional rank:

Ruiz (1st in league)
Howard (5th)
Utley (1st)
Rollins (11th, last due to PA restrictions)
Feliz (7th)
Werth (6th)
Victorino (7th)
Ibanez (1st, 2nd overall to Pujols)

That would seem to say that we have 3 all-stars, although the voters for many reasons don't follow simple offensive statistics.

[Dave X]

Not that wOBA is simple... that came out wrong.

[That Dude]

The othe rreason you wont see Donald traded is that he is not that good and most teams know it, so we wont get much for him.

[Andy]

"If Jamie Moyer goes out and pitches 6 innings in every start, giving up 4 runs each time, he finishes the season with an ERA over 5.00."

4 ER in 6 IP is an ERA of 6.00. Given he is already above that level, if he goes out and pitched 4 in 6 the rest of the way his ERA will not be above just 5, but 6.

I understand he's 46; but Eatonesque is Eatonesque, and 6.00 does not keep your team in the game every night.

But, really, if he can go 4.5 - 4.75 the rest of the way, great, fine, I'll be happy for him, us and me. Just don't maintain that 6.00 is a fine ERA.

In re: Chooch
CHOOOOOOOOOOOCH!!

Of course, Chris Coste will not be in the All-Star game because he's waiting for the Super Star Game.

[Pops]

Any chance we see Victorino back in the starting lineup tonight?

[Dan]

Finally some freakin respect from BP on their Hit List, the Phils have consistently been in the teens up until now.

[Andy]

Kennelly's kinda fascinating. He's basically a utility guy (who has even caught a few times). He's kind of been a stealth "prospect" (not really a prospect at all); but he's an Aussie who is not really to much behind expected schedule - playing regularly at high A at 22. He's hitting for average with little power.

My guess is that he'll replace Harman as the guy that sits at a high level but never gets called up. He could have a better-than-Gnome ceiling though.

[AWH]

“””AWH: If Jamie Moyer goes out and pitches 6 innings in every start, giving up 4 runs each time, he finishes the season with an ERA over 5.00. Is that acceptable? Do we honestly believe that we don't have alternatives that could deliver an ERA lower than 5?”””

CJ, thanks! That's the way to twist what I posted.

Let me iterate it for you with CAPS for emphasis - maybe this time you'll take it at face value:

If Moyer goes 6 and 4 AGAINST THE TOP SCORING TEAM IN THE LEAGUE, that's a good start - for a 4th or 5th starter of ANY AGE.

Unless, of course, you don’t think there is a difference between the Dodgers’ lineup, and that of say….the Padres, and your expectations for ANY pitcher is the same every game, regardless of who the opponent is?

That might explain what you posted.

________________________________________________________________

As far as Chooch is concerned, JW, let's not forget that he STOLE A BASE last night, which led to him scoring an insurance run in the 7th. Chooch is now 3/4 in steal attempts - not shabby for a catcher. Not many teams have that luxury.

The Phillies catchers have, of late, become quite productive in the 8 hole, and as I posted on a previous thread, as a group are 6th on the team in total bases.

[Hydrant]

The #8 spot in the lineup is a very difficult position to consistently get production from in the National League. That makes Ruiz's production all the more impressive to me. I do not know how his offense would translate to a leadoff role, but he definitely has the tools to support the thought of him hitting somewhere besides the #8 spot.

And, as I said before, believe what you want about UZR, but Jimmy Rollins' glove is not getting the love from the UZR stats this season. According to that stat, he's playing 0.5 runs above league average defense for a shortstop and is towards the bottom of all NL shortstops defensively. So, saying his glove redeems him might not be a very strong argument referring solely to the '09 season.

Ruiz plays a pretty critical role for the lineup. His walk rate is at a career high, so he's turning our lineup over at an increased rate. He's also turned his groundballs into line drives, as illustrated below. Big key to getting hits.

2008: 16.8 LD%, 54.3 GB% (career high GB%)
2009: 24.4 LD%, 33.3 GB% (career high LD%, career low GB%)

And, it appears at least statistically that he's being pitched about the same as he was in previous years, so I don't think this is a trickle down effect from the mashing of the rest of the lineup. He's seeing about 3% less strikes then career average, but he's also making contact when he swings about 2% less. So, I think that comes out in the wash. He's just figured out how to barrel up the ball more consistently.

Now, whether he can sustain a LD% 7 points above his career norm, different story... But, it's definitely good to see him hitting.

[Dave X]

8-10 weeks for Putz

[loctastic]

Choch is slowly moving up my list of favorite Phillies. The guy pisses intensity.

Posted by: Tony D | Friday, June 05, 2009 at 01:24 PM

He certainly does. I bet such an intense stream produces a nice, frothy head.

Posted by: J. Weitzel | Friday, June 05, 2009 at 01:27 PM

And this is why I come to Beerleaguer! Well done.

[Albert]

Jimmy can't figure it out, and has been very streaky so far this year. The one nice thing is that he is still playing GG defense at SS.

[Brian G]

Ruiz the man. Just love that guy. You gotta think the family issues really did have an impact on him last year. And while he's not a .915 OPS guy, he may be a just under .800 OPS guy, which is great for a catcher.

I'm more frustrated than worried about Rollins. We all remember Burrell's dsimal first half 2007, which he followed by being the best player on our team in the 2nd half of that year.

Checked the stats on that Tommy Hanson kid the Braves are calling up. HOLY SNIKEYS! His minor league stats are Cole Hamels-esque. If he pitches like he can the Braves could give us some problems.

[Jack]

I actually have thought J-Roll's defense has been shaky at times this year; sometimes making great plays, but also sometimes misplaying balls he would've had for sure the last couple years. Stats that say he's gone down a level since year confirm what my eyes are seeing.

[AWH]

Brian, I am on record as saying the Braves with Hanson and McLouth will represent a problem.

[Mac Tonight]

Glavine apparently said that it would take "a lot" for him to come back and pitch for another team.

If he's speaking financially, I think he'll find himself next to Pedro in purgatory. When you're released by the only club you've ever played for after a rehab start, you either accept the dollars that are offered to you or you retire.

I am definitely a proponent of giving him a shot in Philadelphia, but not for much more than league minimum for the remainder of '09 (or perhaps an incentive deal).

"J-Roll's future in Philadelphia is something I never, ever questioned. But now, I might."

I hate to say it, but his numbers really have declined as the drug testing has increased. For defensive reasons alone, I don't want to see him go, but we might want to think about adding a more competent leadoff hitter at some point down the road.

[G-Town Dave]

"Choch [sic] is slowly moving up my list of favorite Phillies. The guy pisses intensity."

Abso-freakin'-lutely!!! :-D

Meanwhile, the only thing J-Roll continues to piss is me, off. Watching him at the plate would be downright sad if it weren't also so overwhelmingly aggravating.

[CJ]

So the defensive stats say J-Roll's average at SS.

And people wonder why I think defensive stats are seriously flawed!

[AWH]

And, fellow BLrs, before you count the Mets out, this is from Rosenthal's latest:

"Putz would return in early to mid-August if he meets the 8- to 10-week timetable.

Mets left-hander Billy Wagner, recovering from Tommy John surgery, told MLB.com last month that he is aiming for a return in late July or August.

The returns of Putz and Wagner would give the Mets three pitchers who have enjoyed success as closers.

The team's immediate problem, however, will be building a late-inning bridge to Rodriguez."

My point is, if they can hang around until mid-August, if the Rat and the Putz come back and pitch well, the Mets could make a run at things.

[Dan in Philly]

I know it's too early to get excited about Bastardo, but I'm excited about Bastardo. If he has matured into a pitcher who can consistently throw 94-95, I think he'll be a positive this year as a #4 starter. We'll see if it was just the high of a first time start, but I've been reading that he has a good change and slider. If either are above average then with a 94 fastball he'll be good for a rookie. If both are above average he'll be quite good for anyone.

[Tony D]

Hydrant, 3% less strikes than last year? 2% less contact? That's like 10 pitches this year. Dont sweat the small stuff man. See ball, hit ball. Ruiz is hitting it better this year.

[AWH]

I cannot wait until Jimmy turns it around.

I cannot wait to see wht the critics will say then.

they post as if no other player has every gone through a prolonged slump before.

Ryan Howard, on June 5, 2008:

.206, .316, .453, .769

I cannot wait.

[Brian G]

Mac: "I hate to say it, but his numbers really have declined as the drug testing has increased"

I doubt you hate to say it, otherwise you wouldn't. Because most people, when they have the option to say something incredibly stupid and totally innaccurate, which is at the same time something they'd prefer not to say, well, like I said... THEY DON'T SAY IT.

Here's Rollins career... 2000-2003, one consistent level of power, 2004-2008, after turning 25 he had a jump in power with one outlier year in 2007 where he just crushed the ball. And now half of this year he's been terrible. When did the steroid uproar occur with testing increased, 2004/2005? His only seemingly unnatural increase in power was 2007, did MLB go lenient on testing that year? Did they announce that new one year policy or only tell you? Give me a break. I won't rule out the possibility that anyone used, but you're just trying to make Rollins look bad based on no evidence, so don't pretend otherwise.

[Hydrant]

CJ: Defensive stats are a bit of a crapshoot. That's why I said "believe what you want about UZR". But, even Range Factor has him down significantly, so my thought is something must be up.

Also, both stats are strongly recognizing Ryan Howard's defensive turnaround. In fact, the Phillies are 5th in MLB for UZR/150 for 1B. Ryno has done an amazing job with his defense and the stats clearly back that up.

[pb]

VOTE CHOOOCH!!!

I agree he's fast become one of my fav's on this team.. Does anyone know if they make those "Jersy T-Shirts" with "Chooch 54" on it rather than "Ruiz 54" or do I have to get special order one on MLB.com??

[Dukes]

AWH: I'm with you until July 1 and then something has to be done if things don't turn around.

[Mac Tonight]

Putz and Wagner (sounds like a publishing company) could definitely have an impact if they can return in August and pitch well.

If I were a Mets fan, I wouldn't be too jazzed about it though. Imagine if Romero and Madson both pitched like hell and then had to go on the DL until August.

[loctastic]

brian g - it sucks but such is MLB these days. everyone is a suspect. and it's the players' own fault for not pushing the union to accept better testing policies earlier on.

ps - i do not agree with Mac.

[Tony D]

Pardon my ignorance, but what the hell is UZR?

It sounds like a Soviet made machine gun.

[shake-n=bake 77]

Good points you raised here, JW. I'm not really worried about J-Roll, though. He'll produce numbers before hte end of the year.

[curt]

Regardless of the love for Vicente Padilla at BL, there is http://bases.newsvine.com/_news/2009/06/05/2899493-vicente-padilla-is-yours-if-you-really-want-him?category=sports>no chance the Phils are any more interested than they were a few years ago.

[donc]

It would seem to me that the gnome has clearly been affected by increased drug testing. Even his beard isnt as full as it used to be. He looks like he's got the mange.

[Hydrant]

Tony D: Baseball is a sport which bleeds statistical analysis. I just pointed that out (3% less pitches in the zone, 2% less strikes) to counter the thought that perhaps the offensive production of the rest of the lineup is causing pitchers to aggressively attempt to get Ruiz out since he was rather light hitting in previous years. Since those stats don't show a strong deviation from career norms, I'm basically telling you that is not happening.

As I said, fundamentally the difference between '09 Ruiz and "Normal Ruiz" is the LD%. He can be a very solid MLB hitter if he sustains it.

[Mac Tonight]

"I doubt you hate to say it, otherwise you wouldn't."

"you're just trying to make Rollins look bad based on no evidence, so don't pretend otherwise."

No, dude. I have no problem with Jimmy, or didn't you get the memo that I was f'ing with all of you two months ago. Looks like I'm never going to live that down.

The policy hasn't changed, but I'd venture a guess to say that the quality of testing has (unless you think Manny just starting juicing in 2009). There are ways to beat any drug test, and with time, the loopholes are being closed.

I have a hard time believing that Jimmy could go from MVP to suddenly forgetting how to hit a baseball. I didn't accuse the man of juicing. I simply said that "his numbers really have declined as the drug testing has increased", and this is true. In this age of the game, you can't write off these correlations. I'm not saying you accuse him without evidence, but it should at very least warrant an eyebrow or two being raised.

It sucks, but the players created this situation, not the fans. For better or worse, this is the state of the game; sudden and dramatic dropoff in ability after a sudden and dramatic increase in ability is a red flag.

[Hydrant]

Oh, btw, UZR = Ultimate Zone Rating.

Here's some background:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/uzr-on-fangraphs

[clout]

Paul: Tell me about Doanld's defense.

[CJ]

Tony D: Ultimate Zone Rating. I'd explain how it's determined, but I think the answer is a bunch of guys in a room pick a number at random.

[Dave X]

UZR is Ultimate Zone Rating. It is one of the best defensive stats out there... of course it comes with the standard warning about small sample sizes. Defensive statistics are still statistics, and this far into a season is not enough to determine if a significant change has occurred in a player's fielding abilities.

[Paul]

Clout, I'm not saying that Donald is better than Rollins in the field or even his equal. It's just that I'd rather spend Rollins' $16M he's due over the next two years on a quality starter if his best hitting days are behind him.

[Brian G]

Mac: "his numbers really have declined as the drug testing has increased", and this is true.

As I pointed out. No. It's not.

[thephaithful]

jroll needs to stop trying to hit long fly balls, it was his downfall in years previous and he is regressing back to those habits.

Also, i have noticed a few plays where i thought jimmy usually gets to, but i think his glove has been as excellent as it has been for years. D stats are tough to justify, and they are even tougher when you only give them a 50 games sample.

On the other side, because of such a drastic improvement by Howard from this year to years before, there isn't a defensive metric on Earth that wouldn't show that he has really been playing on a level we have ever seen from him before.

[Colin_K]

I voted for Cooch (thx TBS) and the rest of the fun loving bunch (R) 25 times the other day online...do your part!

[Hydrant]

I can't fault Mac Tonight on the thought he brought up. I too have looked at Rollins numbers and have had the same thought, but I think it's not very likely. As someone said, unfortunately, these questions are a product of the culture MLB enabled in the 90s and early 2000s. We, as fans, have no choice but to now take numbers with some cynicism, however wrong you may feel that may be.

I really think the problem with '09 Rollins is the missing ABs in spring training due to playing in the WBC. I mean, in '08 spring training, I watched Shane Victorino literally run from MLB spring training games to minor league spring training games so he could get a ton of ABs from both sides of the plate. I offered him roller skates and he laughed and said he wanted a golf cart. It takes double the effort to keep both sides of the plate polished and you can't really get the same effect hitting BP in a cage under the stadium in Toronto or sharing your plate appearances with Derek Jeter.

[clout]

AWH: Jack spent much of last season and early this season talking about how Howard was no better than Adam Dunn, wouldn't return to prior form, didn't have the body type for continued success etc. etc. etc. He's silent now.

The Rollins critics like G-Town Dave will be silent when he turns it around. Pretend they never said a word.

[Colin_K]

Weitzel: Ever listen to Grandaddy? Not sure I've ever noticed them on your recommends list.

[Burt]

Amazing Phils stat-Their 20-6 road record is better than any other team's HOME record

[Mac Tonight]

Brian: You quoted policy, not testing.

The amount of testing hasn't changed.

The penalty for a positive hasn't changed.

The quality and accuracy of the tests themselves change, sometimes from month to month.

Poor wording on my part, perhaps, but true nevertheless. There are ways to beat a test. There are ways to learn when you will be tested. The policy is new and thus prone to being exploited. Testing accuracy improves over time.

I am not accusing Jimmy, but we are guilty of the same ostrich syndrome that we accuse Selig and Cardinals/Giants fans if we don't at least look to our own team objectively for red flags.

http://mlbplayers.mlb.com/pa/pdf/jda.pdf

[bay_area_phan]

"If Moyer goes 6 and 4 AGAINST THE TOP SCORING TEAM IN THE LEAGUE, that's a good start - for a 4th or 5th starter of ANY AGE."

Well, those are some pretty lenient criteria. It's certainly not a GOOD start for anyone, including a 5th starter. The Dodgers score 5.29 runs per game. So if you're allowing them 6 runs per game, that is far, far below league average. The most that can be said is that, if Moyer can hold them to 4 runs in 6 innings, the Phillies have a decent chance to win, considering that they have a good bullpen & they're facing Eric Milton. But that's not the same as saying it's a good performance.

[Dave X]

Adam Dunn's OPS (and OPS+) this year is higher than Ryan Howard's, just like it was last year.

Just sayin...

[G-Town Dave]

AWH: By 5 June of last season Ryan also had 15 HR & 44 RBI, which is right in line w/ the 16 HR & 46 RBI he has to this point in '09. There's no doubt Howard was slumping badly early in '08, but he was still producing HR & RBI ... & let's face it, that's really all he's expected to do.

Jimmy's "slump" is far worse in that he is producing NOTHING at the plate. He isn't hitting for average, he isn't working walks, he isn't hitting homers or driving in runs & he's already been caught stealing more times in '09 than he was in all of '08.

It's well & good to hope that Rollins will be able to turn things around, but he has made next to zero contribution to the team's success from an offensive POV, & for that reason I find the comparison to Ryan's slump in '08 a bit suspect.

[Mac Tonight]

On a less controversial note, the Braves are apparently looking at Brad Penny.

[curt]

Rollins needs to be stashed as "2nd leadoff hitter" at #8 or #9 until he stops pressing and starts getting a clue.

But my guess is Cholly won't move him until we lose a couple, and even then it will be a half-measure like the #5 slot again (as if he's an rbi guy right now).

[Tray]

So basically clout's theory is that every player will always do what he did a season prior, with insignificant variation plus or minus, and that whenever a guy's playing poorly, there's no cause for concern so long as he did well last year, because surely his numbers will revert to their career means.

[clout]

Dav X: Therefore Dunn is the better player, right?

[EastFallowfield]

Maybe Putz and Wagner come back in August and pitch great...but we beat the Mets in 07 when their bullpen was better than ours and beat them in 08 when ours was better than theirs. And are beating them so far this year when theirs is better than ours again.

Pitching on the road (away from bandboxes and huuuuuuuuuge home parks)...

Phils 3rd in league in WHIP, Mets 13th

Phils 9th in ERA at 4.42., Mets 13th at 4.87 (and I'm guessing they give up more unearned runs than we do).

We complain about Moyer and his 6.75 ERA, Mets have gotten 8 starts from 2 guys with ERA over 9 (Redding and Perez).

I'm guessing it will matter more in August and September what the rotations are than who's pitching the 7th inning.

[Albert]

Tray: I believe in the case of Rollins that his numbers will indeed revert to career norms. With a guy like Moyer you can argue that his numbers will not revert to career norms because he could be at the end of the line. Obviously 2007 will always be Rollins's best year, but I would classify his current hitting woes as a slump.

[notafanatic]

How do you know Jimmy "Popup" Rollins isn't at the end of his line? Age isn't always the point at which one has to come to terms with falling capacity.

[Andy]

donc - I believe technically in the case of gnomes it's not mange but various assorted fungi.

I wonder if any of them are phosphorescent and glow in the dark?

[Mac Tonight]

Tray: Yeah, that's pretty much it. Clout's law is that no player in the history of the game has ever fallen from career norms and been unable to recover; even 46 year old pitchers. Each of them are eternal until they choose to retire, and their performance is set in stone to never improve or decrease with age beyond the occasional temporary fluke.

curt: I wouldn't be opposed to Rollins moving to the #2 spot. Maybe he could bunt a lead runner or two to second. Not sure how long his performance will justify his leading off.

Albert: I agree, but until this happens, is it necessary to keep him at the same spot in the order? I'm not saying to bench him, but surely his defense won't be affected if he bats second, seventh or eighth.

[Tray]

"Obviously 2007 will always be Rollins's best year..."

By far. It's worth remembering that prior to '07 and '06 this was a guy with a frustratingly low OBP who always seemed to be swinging for the fences and rarely had anything to show for it (prior to '06, a career high of 14 HR). He then had a two-year power spree, and now he's reverted to his 2001-2005 form. His defense is great but I don't know why we insist in pigeonholing him in the leadoff spot. Because he can run? So can Victorino, and he's put up a .346 OPB or greater the last four years.

[AWH]

bap, Moyer is effective the 5th starter on this team, despite what anyone says.

Please take a look at 5th starters around MLB, and then get back to me.

(For further reference please see EF's post above about what the Mets have gotten from Perez and Redding. It's not that unusual.)

Unless of course you EXPECT Moyer to pitch like Hamels every turn?

Why is it so hard for some people to admit that it was THEY who expected too much from Moyer, based on the tremendous season he had in 2008? Why?

[Mac Tonight]

Tray: sudden and dramatic dropoff in ability after a sudden and dramatic increase in ability. Just sayin'...

[cm]

If J-Roll continues to hit 225, when would you change the order? How late into the season before you dropped him? And to what slot? 6? 7?

[CJ]

AWH: With Moyer as our 5th starter, you're suggesting that Bastardo (and his one career start) is our 4th starter? And Happ (and his 8 career starts) is our 3rd starter?

You really, really think highly of our young pitchers!

[G-Town Dave]

donc & Andy: Assuming nothing can be learned from the state of Gnome's beard, how else would one be able to judge whether he was using? Batting average increases to an insane .185 & he manages to fly out to shallow center once in awhile?

[dlhunter]

Besides Shane, who would we really bat leadoff besides JRoll? Werth? Chase?

[Hydrant]

Victorino doesn't have the walk rate to sustain being an MLB leadoff hitter.

That's what is a big part of Rollins' .264 OBP. He's swinging way more than he used to, not making as much contact as before, and when he does, it's a flyball/popup instead of a line drive. Due to all the swinging, he's walking WAAAAY less than his career norm... about 33% less.

[Steve]

HRs for JR 2001 - 2009

14, 11, 8, 14, 12, 25, 30, 11, 9 (projected)

Someone please find me a player from the non-steroids era who has a similar two year pop in HRs around age 27 and 28.

I love J-Roll, but it's hard to look at these stats without wondering about 'roids.

[donc]

Andy:That's definitely possible considering he hangs out in the garden all day. He could have eaten a bad cremini.

[bay_area_phan]

AWH: The guy pitches 1 good game and you're going to try to convince me that a guy with a 6.75 ERA is an acceptable starting pitcher on a playoff contender? It's certainly possible that Moyer could start pitching better, and that maybe last outing was the start of that. I'm skeptical, given his age; but I'm open to the possibility. I'm NOT open to the possibility that, if he continues to allow 6 runs per 9 innings, it' just fine and dandy.

[Dave X]

I don't think Dunn is better than Howard.

That being said, someone who has repeatedly posted that corner defense doesn't mean anything might. I'm struggling to remember who took that position when Pedro Feliz came to down.

[Steve]

and another point to consider...find me a guy generously listed at 5'8", 170 lbs. who has popped 25 and 30 hrs in consecutive seasons (from the non-steroid era)

again not trying to hate on J-Roll. just hoping someone somewhere can explain this performance without steroids as an explanation

[dlhunter]

I don't know if I buy the roid argument. Was he jacked for two years? I don't remember JRoll suddenly resembling the Hulk... Maybe he HAS physically peaked, naturally.

[Tray]

I don't even see why he has to continue hitting .225 to change the lineup. .250, without many walks, isn't really acceptable from your leadoff man either. Aside from the fear that he handles a move down poorly, which is a real concern, I think it goes without saying that giving a guy who's currently your worst hitter, by far, the most at-bats is far from optimal.

[Brian G]

Steve: If he was going to have a spike in power, the ages of 27 and 28 would be a sensible time for it. And who knows, maybe Rollins never used steroids when it was prevalent, but found out a way after testing began to beat the tests, and used it in 2006/2007. But the bottom line is that his spike in power does not coincide with testing becoming more lenient, but rather when it was becoming prevalent for the first time.

[G-Town Dave]

dlhunter: Ruiz. He's a product that constantly improves. It's like, "Chooch: Now with Stolen Bases!"

Seriously, though, does it matter who? I prefer Shane or Werth, but pretty much every starter on the team (plus Dobbs & a couple of pitchers) has a better OBP than Jimmy.

[AWH]

The following are the names, ages and ERA of some of the SP in MLB (must have started at least 5 games):

Nolasco, 26, 9.07
Sanchez, 25, 5.55

Snell, 27, 5.64

Parra, 26, 6.75
Suppan, 34, 5.09

Wellenmeyer, 30, 5.05

Padilla, 31, 5.57
Harrison, 23, 5.43

Hughes, 23, 5.45

Purcey, 27, 7.01

Sonnastine, 26, 7.07
Kazmir, 25, 7.69

Liriano, 25, 6.60

Floyd, 26, 5.75

Arroyo, 32, 5.37

Willis, 27, 6.84

Carmona, 25, 7.42

I could add more to the list, but I think you should get the idea.

Or......maybe you don't get it.

[Tray]

"Victorino doesn't have the walk rate to sustain being an MLB leadoff hitter."

He has the average to sustain being an MLB leadoff hitter. He doesn't have to walk too much to get on base at an acceptable rate.

[Hydrant]

By the way, this whole Adam Dunn / Ryan Howard comparison is pretty off-base. Yes, if you put Dunn's hitting stats up against Ryan's, the comparison looks pretty good for Dunn.

BUUUUUUTTTTT....

When you consider the only potential value of those numbers is if Dunn is a DH, the comparison clearly comes out in favor of Ryan Howard.

[AWH]

CJ, until I see it proven otherwise on the field, I do think highly of our young pitchers.

Unless of course you can provide some evidence that would change my mind.

______________________________________________________________________

"AWH: The guy pitches 1 good game and you're going to try to convince me that a guy with a 6.75 ERA is an acceptable starting pitcher on a playoff contender? "

bap, you're really going to have to do better than that. That's just about the silliest statement you've ever made here.

I detailed on prior threads, which I know you saw because you were posting during the same periods, Moyer's track record of having bad spells and turning it around. I'm not going to do it again, go back and look yourself.

I could just as easily say:

"SO YOU'RE SAYING THAT DESPITE A LONG TRACK RECORD TO THE CONTRARY, the guy pitches a few bad games and you're going to try to convince me that a guy with a 6.75 ERA can't turn it around?

[bay_area_phan]

I also want to call BS on this trick of comparing our 5th starter to other 5th starters around the league, and concluding that ours is just fine. That is, very often, a flawed analysis.

If you look at other teams' 5th starters, what you'll very often find is that there is no clear 5th starter at all. Instead, there are a lot of different guys who have served as the 5th starter, as the team tries to find someone who is decent. The lesson: while it is true that many teams have ineffective fifth starters, most of those teams are also doing quite a bit of experimenting in an effort to improve that area. Moyer is "better" than the these teams' fifth starters only in the sense that he has reliably made every start, whereas most teams don't even have one snigle, reliable guy in the 5th starter's spot. But the reason Moyer has made every start is because the Phillies seem to have a higher tolerance for ineptitude than most other teams & haven't felt the need to experiment or try to improve in this area. If you compare his numbers to the numbers of other 5th starters who have been there all year, he comes out dead last.

[CJ]

AWH: Was Jamie Moyer our 5th starter while Chan Ho Park was in the rotation?

[donc]

God isnt this whole steroid thing a downer? I always root for the home team. I'm a born and bred Philadelphian. Even when we have a team full of a**holes I root for the laundry based on the fact that the opposition is full of a**holes too. Now in the case of the Phillies we don't have to worry about that. This is as likeable team as you're likely to find. And if we somehow come to find out it's full of juicers, while I would be very disappointed, I would still root for the Phillies. I am coming to the conclusion that just about everybody is cheating to some degree. I would just be rooting for our cheaters over their cheaters. I hate to be cynical but that is kind of where all of this stuff seems to be leading. In the end, if everyone is cheating the only place it may matter is in the record book and, by extension, Cooperstown.

[AWH]

bap, you're totally missing the point in the discussion about 5th starters.

All teams have them. Mostly, they all perform about the same.
____________________________________

"while it is true that many teams have ineffective fifth starters"

Ummm, most teams do. that's why they're 5th starters. No team, not even the Yankees, can afford 5 #1s.

"the Phillies seem to have a higher tolerance for ineptitude than most other teams"

Sure, that's why they're in 1st place.

"& haven't felt the need to experiment or try to improve in this area."

Yep, that's why Park got scratched from the rotation, Kendrick is in AAA, Myers got sent down last season, Blanton got teraded for, and Eaton got sent home last Fall.

Sheesh! Do you actually PAY ATTENTION to personnel moves.

[AWH]

CJ, what's your point.

"If you compare his numbers to the numbers of other 5th starters who have been there all year, he comes out dead last."

OK, bap, let's see if he can turn it around.

You say he won't, I say he will.

Now, let's agree on the criteria are that we're going to use to measure his performance.

[bay_area_phan]

AWH: You kind of just proved my last point.

Nolasco was sent down to the minors. Sanchez went to the DL. Padilla was DFA'd. Hughes has been in and out of the Yankees' rotation all year. Kazmir went to the DL. Willis has made only a handful of starts. Carmona is on an incredibly short leash. Purcey hasn't pitched since April. The lesson: to the extent that other 5th starters have posted comparable numbers to Moyer, their teams have taken action to try to get better production out of the 5th starter's spot.

As I said, I'm open to the possibility that Moyer might turn things around. I'm not open to the argument that he has been just fine up to this point.

[dlhunter]

I've stumbled across an interesting photo of JRoll in '07, I'm not saying he was 'roiding, but there's something a bit suspicious:

http://yfrog.com/5jjrollj

[G-Town Dave]

"Shane Victorino doesn't have the walk rate/OBP/proper approach, etc. to hit leadoff."

I hate all arguments along this line, & here's why: Say you've got 3 Apple Trees. Apple Tree #1 is your ideal leadoff tree, & it gives you a tasty eatin' apple 38% of the time. Apple Tree #2 is J-Roll, & he's giving you a tasty eatin' apple 26% of the time. Apple Tree #3 is Vic, & his tasty apple percentage is 35%.

Of course we would prefer that Apple Tree #1 hit leadoff, but Apple Tree #1 ain't a Phillie. And we'd like Apple Tree #2 to produce tasty apples like it used to (35% Tasty Apples in '08!), but that simply isn't happening. So what's wrong w/ giving Apple Tree #3 a shot? Sure, he's not Apple Tree #1, but he's on the team & his Tasty Apple % is right in line w/ what Apple Tree #2 has been producing the past couple of seasons.

Those who refuse to go w/ the Apple Tree #3 simply because it's not as good as Apple Tree #1 aren't making any sense. Better is better, & if the Phils have an opportunity to get more out of their leadoff Apple Tree, they should.

dlhunter: Ha! :-D

[CJ]

AWH: The points are thus:

1) Comparing Jamie Moyer to other teams 5th starters is disingenuous considering he's not our 5th starter now and didn't start the season as our 5th starter.

2) Plenty of 5th starters who have struggled as much as Moyer has struggled (including our own Chan Ho Park) have already been removed from rotations. That's what happens with 5th starters who pitch poorly. I'm not sure why this concept is so foreign.

[GM-Carson]

(Tooting own horn) I do believe I proclaimed Carlos Ruiz was a future All-Star catcher in either late 2007 or early 2008.

[MG]

Few comments:

- It is a significant accomplishment that Johnson won No. 300 but frankly I could care less. Well known for being standoffish with teammates, coaches, and reporters. Plus, he is notoriously difficult with fans too (especially about autographs) and largely has the personality of a large piece of wood.

- Wonder if the Mets didn't get sold a bill of goods on Putz. He was injured all last year and there was a number of health-related questions swirling around him this offseason.

- Chooch has had a very nice return offensively since coming off the DL but its been only 6 weeks. That isn't enough for an All-Star consideration yet. If he has similiar stats come July 1, then he should begin to get some more serious merit in a down year at C in the NL.

[clout]

Mac Tonight: Shouldn't you be busy posting your term paper for us to read instead of making things up?