Popular opinion doesn't see a shared Phillies stage

Only on a team with an embarrassment of riches would Chase Utley and Ryan Howard play second fiddle to the five-hole hitter, which is exactly what's happening as Philadelphia continues its love affair with Raul Ibanez.

After last night's game, readers picked up on Howard's less than jubilant response following Raul Ibanez's game-winning homer, hoping it was just obvious disgust over failing to deliver the previous at bat and not because Ibanez had stolen the spotlight once again. Ibanez has been the club's clear MVP, and possibly league MVP, but a season ago to the day, and later on in September, we were talking about Utley and Howard in the exact same way. What's changed? Well, Utley's June numbers are roughly the same as they were when the MVP talk was at its fiercest (2008: .310/396/.643; 2009: .302/.438/.588). The only difference is six fewer home runs. Notably, it was June's interleague stretch, which started with Boston, when Utley began his steep decline. Then there's Howard, who's having one his most complete seasons as a professional, hitting .253/.331/.567 with 18 homers and 48 RBIs, fourth best in the National League in both categories. Yet Howard, who was hitting .208/.311/.445 at this time last year, has made the biggest strides with his glove, considered one of the main reasons he finished runner-up to Albert Pujols in MVP voting. Some even say Howard has played a Gold Glove-caliber first base.

So what's changed? Only the presence of Ibanez. Utley and Howard, who worked tirelessly to rehab and improve themselves this offseason, are every bit as good, or better, than they were in 2008. So maybe, just maybe, there's more behind Howard's scowl than one bad at bat.

Comments

[kart racer]

Howard will outdo them both come September. Ibanez better not repeat last years September: .593 OPS

[J. Weitzel]

Don't know why it happens, but we're conditioned to heap credit on one individual. It's been another complete effort so far.

[CJ]

Yeah, come September, it may be Ibanez who is the one scowling.

In all seriousness, I'm going to need a lot more evidence than this isolated evidence to believe there's anything to this theory.

Howard high-fived Ibanez and then later, in the dug out, he patted Ibanez on the back.

Howard clearly wasn't happy with his own at bat, but it didn't stop him from congratulating Ibanez.

I want a guy on my team who's not happy with failure in a big spot.

[kart racer]

Howard's career stats in September:

.317 .435 .716 1.151

Any potential playoff team would love that production when the games start getting tight.

[kart racer]

Ya Howard was probably just pissed he struck out there. I don't think there is much jealousy between those guys..sounds too girlish. Maybe Eaton would be jealous. He is kind of a pansy.

[J. Weitzel]

Minor notes: In his first game back with Reading after a demotion from Lehigh Valley, Jeremy Slayden ended a thrilling night with a walk-off grand slam, completing the sweep of Trenton.

[doubleh]

You don't think guys get jealous of each other all the time in professional sports? It happens in every other profession; why not here?

Books I've read say Larry Bowa was really jealous of Schmidt.

But big deal if he is...usually it pushes you to compete on a higher level.

And just about everything we say about a player on here that doesn't have stats around it is conjecture. When this is what we are talking about the day after a huge series with the our fiercest rival, things are pretty good, no?

[R.Billingsly]

I imagine that Howard was disappointed about his AB and not frustrated by Raul's stay in the spotlight. I have nothing on which to base this belief, but merely hope. I have a hard time believing that Howard is that insecure, for lack of a better term. If/when Howard has another fantastic September, he will again be in the spotlight when everything is magnified.

[Bedrosian's Beard]

Good for Slayden. Didn't realize he got demoted, or even promoted in the first place.

He better hope he's part of any major deal that brings back an arm.

[Jack]

Utley is the best player on this team by far, and has been for the last 3 years. He is an on-base machine right now, and a .588 slugging with 15 homers is nothing to sneeze at from a 2nd baseman.

Howard is having his best season with the glove, but once again, a .331 OBP from a 1st baseman is just really bad. His power mitigates it somewhat, but I'll repeat what I said last night: We're paying 54 million over 3 years to a guy who can't hit in the late innings because lefty relievers get him every time. 54 Million.

[doubleh]

The Good Phight has some good numbers to support that Raul Ibanez really isn't doing anything unprecedented right now.

An excerpt:
"this is his best 58-game home run streak and slugging percentage, but it's not his best 58-game OPS (that was the 1.072 he put up through August 20, 2001) or his best 58-game ISO (that was the .354 he put up through August 21, 2002). His best RBI total isn't even on this chart, as it's through August 22, 2002, with 67 RBI."

So, I think the masses/presses should hold off on raising their collective eyebrow until he does do something (powers that be willing) unprecedented.

[EastFallowfield]

Saw Howard with a huge fist pump on the Ibanez HR on SNY. Didn't look like he was that jealous when the ball went over the wall.

[mikes77phillies]

I remember certain a certain genius on BL that trumpeted Jeremy Slayden as the next Jack Cust. Big compliment for a one dimensional, 26 year old, AA hitter. I guess the Phillies didnt believe that nonsense either.

[MG]

Biggest difference with the offense this year has been Feliz and Ruiz. Lost in all of the commotion was that Feliz had another 3 hits last night. If you would have told me before this season that Feliz would be a .300+/.350+ OBP hitter well into June and that he would be hitting RHP so well, I would probably have said fat chance.

Frankly the bottom of this lineup has been incredibly productive and it really has been the difference so far because you knew that the middle of the lineup would be productive again once Utley was healthy.

[Bubba]

One quick camera shot and we are trying to invent some story to connect the dots.
If there is a problem there's a 100 or more games for it to manifest itself.
Howard and Ibanez are doing good things in the field and with the bat.That's enough to make me a happy fan of both of them.

[J.R. King]

MG: Agreed. The other night against K-Rod the Phils had Rollins, Feliz and Ruiz due up and I was actually excited.

[Matt]

I think we're just fishing for a story here. This is supposed to be one of the loosest clubhouses in baseball and the kind of behavior people think they witnessed (for a couple of seconds on television) has never been even remotely hinted at before. Say what you will about his managerial and strategic decisions, but one thing Charlie Manuel knows how to do is keep his players honest, and maybe even humbled to a point. Let's move on to something else.

[phillies fan]

I think it's a mistake to assume Howard's reaction is because he's not a good player. I'm sure he was dissapointed in himself but at the same time I would hope he would put his ego aside and be happy that a teammate hit a game-winning homer in the 10th inning against the mets. I'm sure if the tables were turned that, yes, Ibanez would be pissed at himself but also evidently excited for his teammates.

[EastFallowfield]

Favorite comment from metsblog from the six fans allowed to comment there:

As the Phillie batter came to the plate, I was muttering “I hate this guy”. My daughter finally pointed out that I was saying that for every Phillie batter that came up.

[Jack]

In case anyone was wondering, Ryan Howard has gotten on base 19 times all season in the 7th-9th innings. Ibanez has gotten on base 36 times, while Utley has gotten on base 31 times in those innings.

[kart racer]

I have been waiting all day for the Clout post entitled: "What I learned on beerleaguer today" I think it should be a daily entry, as I look forward to seeing it.

[PS]

Favorite part of series:

Rollins' line of choreographed handshakes after scoring tying run last night.

[Jack]

My point? In the rankings of Phillies position players so far this season, the tiers go like this:

Utley
Ibanez

Everyone else.

Howard is not in the same class as Utley and Ibanez, even with his improved defense (which I love).

[MPN]

Getting back to the Pearlman piece, maybe it is a sports writer whose personality makes them not liked by a/the player(s)? The media can't have it both ways here. If print journalists want to be the paragons of virtue than give us the Joe Friday "just the facts." Don't ham it up on WIP or Toyota Daily News Live. Columnists can by all means because they are opinion writers. But they shouldn't circle the wagons around colleagues who get themselves in trouble ("Hey Brett, that ball went far, huh?"), etc.

[Dave X]

I only saw the last few innings last night, but the defense really stood out. Feliz's catch on the foul ball and Werth's read of the ball hit to RF. Both times the announcers were pretty impressed with the results. Two of the players expected to be the biggest drags, Ibanez and Howard, have turned out to be alright. The shift from guys a few years ago like Abreu and Bell to Werth and Feliz has really upgraded the defense.

[timr]

Howard's 18 HR, 48 RBI, and incredibly improved defense aren't in the same class as Utley amd Ibanez?

[bay_area_phan]

Posted by CJ on the previous thread . . . the current odds from Baseball Prospectus:

Phils: Div 66%, WC 12%, Overall 78%
Mets: Div 23%, WC 18%, Overall 41%

In 2 weeks, the Mets went from a 75% chance of winning the division (they were all of 1/2 game up at the time of those odds) to a 23% chance. That only goes to show how idiotic the original odds were. I know for sure that, if you figured it out mathematically -- casting aside all subjective factors and assumptions -- the Mets' odds of making the playoffs were never 75%. I would also venture to guess that their current odds of winning the East are actually somewhat higher than 23%.

[Jack]

timr: No.

[CJ]

MG: Excatly! I think the "ZZ bottom" proclamation was the best reverse jinx in Beerleaguer history!

The production at the bottom, even from Coste recently as he became more part time, has been essential to this team's success.

It gets us a lot closer to that 900 run number which almost guarantees a playoff spot.

[mikes77phillies]

What's going on today? Posts trying to create anger at Jason Werth over nothing. Now, trying to invent a story of jealousy between Howard and Ibanez. Pure nonsense.
I remember as kid watching Mike Schmidt in the dugout during the '80 LCS. He struck out in the 8th with a chance to continue a rally from 3 runs down. Del Unser came up behind him, picked him up and tied the game. The biggest game in Phillies history at the time. Schmidt could'nt even muster a smile when Unser got the hit because he was still mad at himself for such a horrible at bat.
Schmidt was'nt jealous of Unser, he was mad at himself. Same thing with Howard. Its not hard to understand.

[Jack]

His much improved defense means he's gone from horrible to average or slightly above-average. Ibanez is already there, and Utley is far above that. Ibanez has surpassed his power numbers, and Utley is pretty close. Both exceed him in every other aspect of the game.

[donc]

This is despicable. Just a further illustration of the ESPNization of America. Not a shred of evidence to support any of this nonsense. Just a frown. First Werth snubs a reporter (btw also not news)now Ryan Howard isn't happy enough about Ibanez' homerun. This is supposed to be a haven of true Phillies fandom. Even the teams most ardent supporters are trying to start controversy. WTF? Apparently some just can't enjoy the Phillies on a roll. Gotta start some Sh*t. Very nice.

[CJ]

Jack: I think we get it. You lead the Howard-haters club on Beerleaguer. I'm amazed how someone can post in 6 different ways how lousy a player is in the same thread.

I'll say this... his amazing glove this season more than makes up for his problems at the plate, don't they? I mean, it worked for Feliz, didn't it?

[Phlipper]

And I thought that clout was oddly obsessed with Feliz.

Jack, what's up with the Howard hatin?

Maybe you haven't realized that Howard has produced more RBI per AB than practically any other player in the history of the game (from a brief search of some of the most obvious names, only Ruth had a higher ratio).

And as for him being jealous. First, it seems to me that the evidence is just a tad thin. Maybe he had indigestion or something. Can anyone think of any other indication that he doesn't want all of his teammates to do well?

Second, if it were true, who cares? So what if he's jealous? Would that make him try less hard? Is the contention that Howard might spike Ibanez's Gatorade? I mean, seriously, what would it matter anyway?

[MPN]

Jack: Apparently you watch different games than me. Ryan's defense this season has been well above average and one statistical aggregator has ranked him as the best defensive 1B in MLB for the season thus far.

[CJ]

Jack: The defensive stats say otherwise. It says that Howard is more valuable with a glove this year than Teixiera. Unless you're suggesting defensive stats have suddenly lost their luster in the time since we've discussed Feliz...

[CJ]

Here's my best clout impersonation:

In Jack's world, Pedro Feliz is a better player than Ryan Howard.

[J. Weitzel]

Whoa, donc. Easy there, fella.

[Jack]

Wow, looks like I started a little controversy here.

CJ: I used multiple years' worth of defensive stats to highlight Feliz's defense. If, at the end of the year, the numbers say Howard has been a top-notch defender, I will give him his due, no question.

Also, Feliz is getting paid 5 million this year, if I recall, and Howard is getting paid 15, and set to make more in the next 2 years, so I think he has a little more to live up to, no?

Look, I root for the guy as much as anyone. I just happen to view him a little bit differently than you guys do I guess.

[kart racer]

"Today on Beerleaguer I learned that Ibanez is a better HR hitter than Howard"

[R.Billingsly]

I love Ryan Howard (in a baseball sense, of course).

[MPN]

Jack: How do you feel about Jimmy Rollins and Chris Coste?

[kart racer]

Jack isn't being understood really, he just thinks that Utley and Ibanez are hitting everyone right now so they are in their own class, but Howard is strictly only hitting RHP, and is struggling in late innings because of lefty relievers.

He has a point with Howards line vs LHP this year:
.202 .276 .372 .649

Which I hope improves.

[Dave X]

I think there's a difference between hating on Howard and saying he isn't in the same class as Utley and Ibanez this year.

[Phils Fan in DC]

I think that you are doing Howard a disservice. I also noticed what appeared to be his scowl, but then on one of the many replays saw that Howard lifted both arms in elation as soon as Ibanez hit his home run. Suggestions that Howard might be jealous is reading way too much into way too little.

[Klaus]

There does seem to be a general, mutual disregard between players and sportswriters (for reasons that would be interesting to explore). Here's Bob Ford today, on bullpens: "It's as boring as sitting in a train station waiting room, with people who are a lot dumber than the average traveler."

[CJ]

Dave X: If that was all Jack said, I'm not sure there would be much controversy. But Jack has come up with a half-dozen reasons why Howard is a failure considering how much he's being paid.

[Jack]

I didn't realize a guy with a .331 OBP was untouchable here. Sorry.

As I said, I love his improved defense. LOVE IT. As many people will remember, I've been touting defense as a huge component of the game for two years now. For example, I think both Victorino and Werth are underrated as players because of how much they bring defensively. I feel the same about Utley and Ruiz. Obviously Rollins is a Gold Glover and one of the best in the game.

If Howard can continue this, it certainly improves his value, by a lot. That said, and this was my whole point, a guy who gets on base at a .331 clip and can be completely neutralized late in games, cannot be as valuable as guys like Utley and Ibanez have been this year.

Is that so hard to understand? Honestly?

[mikes77phillies]

Jack says, "Howard is not in the same class as Utley... even with his improved defense"

Ryan Howard: Career OPS+ 142
Chase Utley: Career OPS+ 130

Ryan Howard: 2009 errors 1
Chase Utley: 2009 errors 5

Interesting.

[CJ]

Here's the bottom line:

Ryan Howard will likely never be the player Jack wants him to be. Which is a gold glove first baseman who gets on base a lot.

What Ryan Howard will be is one of the most feared power hitters in the game who will commonly put his team on his shoulders for long stretches, especially in September.

I sure wish we had some high OBP, slick glove first baseman instead! Is Mark Grace still available?

[dmg]

Mets fan again...

I only laugh when I read this post, because I would call this a HIGH QUALITY PROBLEM. It's like the guy who gets too many girls and if there are too many power hitting bats, I'm sure you can park one on our roster!!!!!

[donc]

Very disappointing. Everybody wants to be the next Woodward or Bernstein I guess.

[J.R. King]

How great was it that CSN played the Ibanez homerun with the spanish language broadcasters?

"Raaaaauuuuuuuuuuul Ibanez"

Coolest. thing. ever.

[Phlipper]

What I don't understand, Jack, is how you can so casually dismiss Howard's historic run production in favor of stats on his OBP and late inning performance.

Last night I saw a stat posted that showed that this year he's among the league leaders in producing hits that put his team ahead in the game. He has had his fair share of "game-winning" hits over his career.

He is a #4 hitter. His basic job is to knock in runners. He has done that at a rate that puts him among the elite hitters in the history of the game.

I'd wager that if you replaced his production with that of any other #4 hitter (i.e., put them in the Phillies lineup with the exact same hitters in front and behind) that's been playing during his career, and you'd have a hard time finding any that would match his value in run production, even if that replacement hitter had a higher OBP.

That's not to say that he doesn't have weaknesses - he does (as do all players). But comparing your comments to the balance of the good and the bad in his game, there seems to be a striking incongruity.

[doubleh]

J.R.: PELOOOOTAAAAAAAAAA NO REGRESAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!

They have it on several website on the internets, too. Very sweet.

[J. Weitzel]

You don't think I painted Howard in a positive light in this article? I do. Great numbers and defense was my intent.

[Danny]

I absolutely love this site, but it must really be a slow news day all around if this is what there is to talk about after last night's win and a terrific road trip for the Phils. How could Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and every other Phillie not be totally exuberant about having a new teammate who both protects essential parts of the lineup and does not cause anxiety each time he takes his position in left field? How about we leave well enough alone for now?

[Jack]

CJ: Yes, that is what Howard is. And of course I'd rather have Howard than a 1st baseman with no power, although I think you're selling Mark Grace a little bit short (he was a very good player).

That said, and this is my whole point, is that Howard is getting paid and gets treated as if he's one of the top players in the game. He's not as good as Chase Utley. This year, he hasn't been as good as Raul Ibanez (although it's 50/50 as to who will be at the end of the year), and I, personally, wouldn't put him in the top 5 at his own position (Pujols, Tex, Gonzalez, Berkman, Youkilis). Apparently others here disagree, and that's fine. I was merely stating my opinion.

[EastFallowfield]

Why aren't we discussing who replaces Eyre?

[MikeB]

BTW, I know this has been mentioned before, but the crying going on at Metsblog over the Phillies "laughing" in the dugout after Raul's blast, might be the funniest thing I've read all morning...

...and I read Ziggy when I wake up

[Jack]

EFF: Escalona.

[CJ]

Jack: Wow... Berkman is slugging .485 so far this season, and isn't exactly known for his glove. I sure hope you were stretching for that one. Anything to push Howard further down on the list.

[J.R. King]

I don't want to criticize Jason. He consistently provides compelling and unique content in a market with 10 beat writers and 80 blogs covering the exact same events. But the Werth snub and Howard frown need to be put into context.

We don't know how Jayson Werth treats people and to draw inferences from one second hand snippet of one incident is unfair. As for Howard, we've seen him jump up and down and hop the fence to congratulate Pat Burrell many times.

The Werth story shows how difficult it is to be a beat writer. Okay. The Howard story shows how we fans all applaud one guy at a time on a team firing on all cylinders. Granted.

Both of these points are interesting, but they are minor points that are dwarfed by the negative dispersions they cast on the character of players involved.

This is a excellent blog both in the posts and in the comments. I just wish we'd leave the players' personalities out of it unless we have enough evidence to form an informed opinion.

[EDGE]

Cerrone is really upset about the Philles laughing in the dugout after Ibanez hit the GW HR. Is he really serious. He did a post on it last night and again today.

Their closer practically climaxes every time he gets a save on the field. Reyes runs around the bases with his finger in the air after a HR. Tatis dances to dugout after he hits a HR. Yet, he's upset about players laughing in the dugout. I find this too funny, he also has an unhealthy hatred of Victorino, because he claps and has a cocky attitude.

[thephaithful]

bap/cj: good arguments, and although you say it wont change my mind, I tend to think of myself as one of the (very)few here who actually will consider the other side of the argument and be persuaded, as well admit when I'm wrong and not go on some other tangent just to avoid conceding a point.

I looked at the numbers and I do see your points. However, I still think that getting those runs early in a game is very important and still think it is the right call in that situation.

[timr]

There have basically been three knocks on Howard's game the past few years, at least on Beerleaguer:

--notoriously slow starter
--bad fielder
--highly susceptible to LOOGYs

This season he's already managed to correct two out of three of those! I don't know how much more you could ask right now.

[J.R. King]

Jason: "Great numbers and defense" does not seem like the thrust of your article. For some reason, the part about Howard possibly being upset at being upstaged dwarfs the part about him being a complete ballplayer (even though you spend a lot more time discussing the positives). I guess there's no way to question a player's character and praise his on-field actions without the former taking the thrust away from the later.

[Jack]

CJ:

Berkman
2006: .315/.420/.610 OPS+ 163
2007: .278/.386/.510 OPS+ 131
2008: .312/.420/.567 OPS+ 159
2009: .253/.384/.485 OPS+ 130

Howard
2006: .313/.425/.659 OPS+ 167
2007: .268/.392/.584 OPS+ 144
2008: .251/.339/.567 OPS+ 124
2009: .253/.331/.567 OPS+ 130

Pretty comparable I'd say. Personally, I'd take the AVG and OBP over the SLG, but that's a personal preference, and why I rank Berkman over Howard.

[UD Hens]

Why do we need to start a controversy where there is none? They're all playing great, that's why we are 4 games up. For all we know, Howard was scowling at David Wright. To assume that Howard would have rather had Raul strikeout and then lose the game is just silly.

[vegas]

This is one of those good problems you have when a team is winning. The team is playing so well that there is nothing but petty facial reactions to poke a stick at. Let's hope it continues for rest of the year. Next up, Gnome is pissed that Jamie Moyer hit a homerun with his bat. Good times.

[CJ]

thephaitful: I guess at this point, it's hard to take the results out of the discussion. At the time, I wonder if you thought, "I think the right call is to sac bunt here."

Results can often color opinions, and in both cases, they did manufacture the run.

From my point of view, I'm glad they did it. Moyer, especially, has had real problems in the first inning this year and the Mets were giving him an out before he ever recorded one himself.

But, like you said, sure makes for a good discussion.

[thephaithful]

put me way over on the side that thinks this 1 second snapshot of Howard's face about 3 full seconds after the ball cleared the fence is being COMPLETELY overblown.

Immediately when I saw that shot, I thought of beerleaguer and prayed it wouldn't be twisted into pointless, lazy accusations and suggestions. Oh well.

And say all this nonsense was true, I am completely with CJ as he posted earlier that he wants a player to be upset after coming up short moments afterwards.

"

[J.R. King]

I smell a loss tonight.
- Long road trip
- Emotional series with the Mets
- Extra innings
- Long bus ride late at night

It'd be tough for any team not to have their energy zapped at this point.

[clout]

Jack: If I'm not mistaken, they posted a graphic last night that showed Howard wa 4th in the NL in late inning RBI (7-8-9.)

How does that jibe with your opinion (unsupported) that Howard is "a guy who can't hit in the late innings"????

[EastFallowfield]

Red Sox had their own emotional series, their game ended after our extra inning one did (I think) and their ride was longer to Philly.

[Jack]

Yeah, moving on, I agree the Howard-Ibanez jealousy story is a non-story.

[thephaithful]

jrking: not saying i'm predicting a loss, but I think the fact that they're playing the Boston RedSox is probably at least an honorable mention on your list.

[Kutztown Fan]

But Boston is just coming off a series with the Yankees, so they might be down as well, JR.

I'd kind of like to watcht the Yankees and Mets play tonight. Both teams are pissed after losing their last series to their division rivals. Add that to their traditional hatred of each other. There could be some fireworks.

[thephaithful]

yeah jack, you consistently throw the RBI stat away as if the name of the game is to see how many times you can touch first base.

Name of the game is putting runs on the board, and Howard has been one of the best(the best in 2008 actually) in the majors since his arrival and comparably amongst the best of all time.

[loctastic]

where is the spanish broadcast of the ibanez homerun? i need to hear that.

[Jack]

Clout: He's hitting .186/.269/.414. How does that jibe with your opinion that he DOES hit in the late innings? I think .189 is sufficient evidence that he doesn't hit in late innings, isn't it? What more evidence do you need?

If there happens to be a lot of guys on base when he does get his few hits, then he gets RBIs, but it's not exactly like he was responsible for them getting on base. Come on. I think the fact that multiple times this year Utley has been IBB to get to Howard late in the game speaks volumes about who managers would rather face in late innings.

[thephaithful]

link fix for above: the best in 2008

[doubleh]

loctastic: thefightins.com has it.

[MG]

On Howard:

- Yeah Howard has radically improved his defense this year and has shown that he his power numbers are likely again to be among the best in MLB.

- Still, Jack has a point about Howard's continued failoff in selectivity at the plate and his ability to be largely neutured offensively late in games.

- Howard's % BB is 9.7% this year and his BB/K rate is a paltry 0.35. They are a huge failoff from his 2007 numbers of 16.8 % BB and 0.60 BB/K numbers. They have all been trending downward since then.

Neither one of these numbers are that great either for a power hitter and are well below numbers for A. Gonzalez, Pujols, C. Pena, Dunn, Moreau, or just about any of the MLB leaders in HRs.

As for the average No. 4 hitter, the MLB average is .354 and Howard is well below that at .331 largely because his % BB rate has fallen so much.

- As for late in games, it is pretty simply what you should do against Howard:

1. Bring in a lefty even if he doesn't have great splits against left-handed bats
2. Put the shift on with the 2B/SS playing essentially a shallow RF
3. Don't throw Howard a fastball on the first pitch unless it letter-high or really outside the zone.
4. Don't throw Howard a fastball if you get ahead in the count. Make him hit an offspeed pitch if he is going to hurt you.

Most teams do employ this strategy now against Howard late and although there are still some teams that stupidly and foolish try to sneak a fastball by Howard on the first pitch or ahead in the count.

As a result of following those 4 points, Howard numbers from the 7th inning on stink:

70 ABs with a line of .186/.269/.414 for an OPS of .684.

Those numbers are even more surprising even how hot Ibanez has been this year.

- Phils would be very hard pressed to replace Howard's raw power (which is at still at a premium although HRs have been hit a much higher pace this year) and his improved defense make him a more valuable commodity but his OBP and selectivity at the plate have continued to erode and he is not the kind of guy you wanted locked up to a long-term deal like the Phils did with Utley.

[clout]

mikes77: Your obsession with me is flattering, but let me repeat what I actually said. I said that they hadn't found a league yet where Slayden couldn't hit. And that he could be another Cust (a one-dimensional slugger). That was certainly true when I said it, before the season began. (Look at his stats, those things you don't believe exist.)

Slayden did not do well in LV, where he hit .229 in 38 games. Whether this is finally the league where he can't hit or whether he was just off to a slow start is unknown. But he is 26. Cust hit .235 in Trip A at age 25. He did not get even a half season in the bigs until age 28.

So your crowing about Slayden's failure is a bit premature.

[loctastic]

nice, thanks doubleh

[Jack]

MG: Ah, I forgot about Morneau. Yeah, he's better than Howard too. CJ, you can replace Berkman in the Top 5 with Morneau, if it makes you feel better.

[MG]

timr - You bring up a good point. Howard came ready to play this year and his defense has been radically improved.

Phils are unquestionably a better team with Howard than without him it is just that he established just a high bar for himself with 2006 MVP season that he really had nowhere to go but down from here.

I will say though that since May 1, Howard really has taken more a hacking approach at the plate though including one game where he had a golden sombrero (June 1) with 4 Ks and 4 games where he struck out at least 3 times.

I don't think it is just a condivdence that sine May as Howard's % BB and BB/K numbers have really fallen that his OBP and AVG have too. He has hit for power at a much greater rate but it has come with a clear tradeoff in OBP and AVG.

[bay_area_phan]

I don't know what the big controversy is about. Jack said, in essence, that Utley & Ibanez are more complete players than Howard since: (1) Howard's defense isn't that good; and (2) his OBP is low; and (3) his problems against left-handed pitching make him useless in the late innings.

The first claim used to be true, but clearly isn't anymore. I think we've seen enough of Howard's defense this year to safely conclude that he has turned himself into a very good defensive first baseman -- dare I say, among the best in baseball.

Jack's second claim is true. You can certainly debate the importance of OBP for a cleanup hitter, and whether it's outweighed by his power numbers & RBI totals (IMO, it is). But there's no debating that OBP is a very important stat, no matter what a guy's spot in the batting order. And Howard's OBP is very average.

And Jack's third claim is undeniably true, and the single biggest weakness in Howard's game. Howard's power numbers certainly make him a star player and, just because those homeruns never happen in the 8th or 9th inning does not mean they're not important. Still, it's no small point that he can't hit left-handers -- or right-handed strikeout pitchers -- AT ALL. In fact, it's a critical weakness which makes him perhaps the only star player in baseball who you DON'T want at the plate after the 7th inning. Pointing out the holes in Howard's game does not make one a "Howard Hater" any more than pointing out Victorino's lack of plate discipline makes you a "Vic hater."

[p. Red]

The Howard mad face was questioned by quite a few posters in the game chat, so it's not like JW made it up. Yeah, there is probably nothing there, but in a blog that has numerous posts per day on the Phils I don't think it is out of line for Jason to mention it. Frankly, he does a great job keeping the content coming on this site, even posting while on vacation! Love the site and keep up the good work, Jason.

PS Only suggestion I would have on the site is to get yourself a favicon. With your photoshop skills I'm sure you could come up with a good one.

[GreysFan]

Okay. I am inspired to contribute a rare post. One of the joys of baseball is the opportunity to argue endlessly over who is a better hitter, more valuable to the team, more clutch when it counts. The more statistics we have, and I am a fan of statistics, the more ways there are to argue, but when I was a little kid we managed to argue over Mays vs Dimaggio vs Snider (I know. I'm old.) with little more to go on than the traditional triple crown numbers.

However, I think that baseball so easily turns the focus on individual players that we sometimes forget that this is very much a team sport. I am loving Rauuuuul, and feel very lucky to have the chance to watch Chase Utley construct what I hope is a HOF career, but I am just as happy to have Ryan Howard on this team. Yes, I do go nuts when he strikes out with two men on in the 10th inning, but I felt the same pain and frustration when Schmidt or Luzinski did the something similar. And how much I like any of these guys doesn't take away from the pleasure of Ruiz, or Feliz, or (even if he isn't hitting), Rollins making extraordinary plays look routine. We all know from experience that a team of allstars at nearly every position is not always a guarantee of the best team, and by chance or by design there is no doubt that this version of the Phillies is an exceptionally well constructed TEAM. Perhaps some parts may be more crucial than others, but I am confident that each player on this year's everyday lineup (as well as many of the pitchers and bench) is an important piece of that team picture.

So…some may play a more dramatic or obvious role than others, but in the end this is such a good time, for me anyway, to be a Phillies fan that it is hard to find too much fault in any one indvidual or in comparing on player to another. And maybe Ryno just took a gulp from the Gatorade bottle with a dead bug in it last night and that was the sour face.

[MG]

RBIs late that Howard has are almost exclusively related to the ability of guys to get on in front of him.

It started to happen a bit last year but it is evidently clear now that teams will pitch around Utley to get to Howard and rightly so if they have a LHP on the mound.

Hell, you saw it in the Mets series just last night where they were much more careful with Utley including last night when Takahashi walked Utley and went after Howard's over aggressiveness. That wasn't even Feliciano who completely OWNS Howard with a split of .148/.179/.259 in 28 ABs.

Frankly baseball (just about more than any other sport) is a game of 1-on-1 matchups and opposing teams can largely remove the impact of the Phils' most important offensive pieces late if they have a LHP in the pen.

Luckily, Utley has picked up right where he left off prior to his injuyr and Ibanez has hit at a ridiculous pace so far this year including mashing LHP. Eventually Ibanez will cool off a bit and go through some struggles against LHP.

Howard has to find a way to become a bit more selective at the plate in those situations and be willing to take a walk if necessary like Bonds use to do if you have such hot hitters behind you including Ibanez & Feliz.

[LA Jeff]

I feel that Ryan Howard is a much more valuable player on an already good team and a lesser player on an below average team.

I say this because he is one of a few players in baseball (Pujols, A-Rod...maybe a few others) that can carry a baseball team for a month. His production alone when he is in the zone gets you into the postseason.

Replace Ryan Howard with Adam Dunn and the Phillies do not win the World Series last year.

I do not think Howard is one of the 20 best players in the game, but let's enjoy him for what he is: a unique freak of nature that makes this great team elite.

And as far as throwing numbers my way, to paraphrase JW, throw those aside and just watch the guy.

[sneed]

Jack,

What value do you place on 195 HR in 695 career games, presumably, barring a major slump, the quickest player to 200 HR in major league history. Since I know that you are a world class historian, I was wondering if you could convince me not to pay a guy the most on the team who creates more runs, in absolute terms here, than anyone else at a record pace.

Couple that with league leading defense right now.

Your turn.

[Jack]

Sneed: So you think Ryan Howard is better than Chase Utley? Reverse racist.

[sneed]

You know I have posters of both of them side by side in my basement lair.

[MG]

LA Jeff - Good point. Howard is one of the few guys in MLB baseball who can really carry a team for a month offensively and did so last Sept.

Without his production in Sept including 11 HRs and 32 RBIs, the Phils likely would have been home come Oct. 1st.

Last year, Howard was not among the 20 best players in the game. I would argue that he wasn't even among the top 50 players in MLB last year if you count pitchers too.

This year though his defense is heads and shoulders of where it has previously been and he likely will be once again one of the more valuable players in MLB if he finishes around .260/.335/.560 and nearly Gold Glove caliber defense.

[bay_area_phan]

clout: I would venture to guess that you ARE mistaken -- or that stat was mistaken --about Howard's RBIs between the 7th and 9th innings.

Howard has 11. I already found 5 guys who are higher than that: Ibanez (29); Fielder (18); Loney (16); Dunn (15); Pujols (14). There are probably more; I stopped looking. There are also a bunch of guys bunched together in the 8 to 11 range, so we're not really talking about meaningful differences. A more meaningful statistic would be to look at late-inning RBIs relative to RBI opportunities.

[mikes77phillies]

Ah, the Howard haters are out in force this afternoon. Jack, BAP, MG... Where is sophist and Alby?

[Jack]

Obviously I'm half-joking on the racism charges.

But Sneed's statement clearly fails simple logic. His claim that Howard "creates the most runs" relies solely on the evidence that he is the quickest to 200 HRs. Unless you can establish that "quickest to 200 HRs" equals "creates the most runs", the statement fails. And you can't make that jump. So you fail. Not surprisingly.

NEXT.