Pedro a risk worth taking for up-and-down rotation

A news conference is scheduled for today to make the signing of three-time Cy Young winner Pedro Martinez official. Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. tells reporters that Pedro will head to the minor leagues.

Beerleaguer: If their hunch is correct and Pedro has something left, they've added a starting pitcher who could give them a quality, focused effort every time out. Pedro says he feels better than has for years, which is encouraging, because even the broken down Pedro of three years ago brought presence. That's the version the Phils will be hoping to get, the savvy vet who can win on sheer guile, instead of the explosive mid-90s flamethrower of 10 years ago.

Critics of the move say he's no better than a fifth starter and scoff at the commitment, even if they did get him from the clearance rack. I'm of the mind that adding Pedro is a big deal, and that the lines between the top and bottom of the Phillies rotation are blurred. The team leader in wins, Jamie Moyer, has a 5.99 ERA and has surrendered 21 home runs. I'm not exactly worried about where Pedro falls into place. The bar isn't set especially high and they can afford to experiment with the final spot.

If they guessed right, they've added a proven arm, while paying little and stashing prospects, at a time with quality, experienced pitchers are at a premium.Nevertheless, there's reason to worry about the long leash the Phillies like to extend veterans. Pedro posted a 5.61 ERA in 20 starts last season, and in the eyes of every other club, he's cooked. I worry, too, about upsetting the team's equilibrium. Reading the comments from Shane Victorino and Jayson Werth, one wonders if they'll try to score runs for him, or just stand around in awe. That's what I'd do. After all, he's Pedro.

Comments

[loctastic]

As I've said before, I'm not a fan of this. But I will be doing my best to get tickets for his first start @ CBP.

[J. Weitzel]

Or his first rehab in Reading even. There's something surreal about that, watching Pedro watch Crazy Hot Dog Vendor between innings.

[Greg V]

I'm alright with the move myself. I have a hard time turning down a future hall of famer and 3 time Cy Young winner. You don't get there without having a head on your shoulders. Greg Maddux, Curt Schilling, and Roger Clemens all learned to pitch past their prime and be a huge help. No reason to believe Martinez can't do the same thing. I applaud the move!

[R.Billingsly]

How many minor league starts will he get? 2 or 3, something like that? Is there any speculation as to when Pedro will be able to join the big club? I supposed we'll have to wait for the announcement today, but have there been any rumors floating around?

[AWH]

Someone mentioned in the previous thread that to sign Pedro for only $1 MM is a sign of Amaro's negotiating prowess.

I have a different take:

Who had the leverage?

If the reports are true that he wants to go out on top - that he doesn't want 2008 to be the last season people remember about him.

Keep in mind, there are players who can still hit sitting home because no MLB team wanted to sign them. Frank Thomas is the first one I thought of. Pedro has to see that, and had to realize that at this stage no team was going to pay him what he wanted until he proved he could still pitch.

Answer: Simply put, at this point Pedro had very little leverage.

If he still wants to pitch he had to find a team that needed pitching, but because no one knows what they're going to see on the mound yet, he pretty much had to accept what the Phils were offering.

If Pedro does come in and pitch well, and makes 10 starts posting an ERA under the league average, then he'll probably get picked up by someone next season. If his guile and stuff are good enough to pitch to an ERA under 4.00, and he can average 6 IP, then he will be a HUGE addition.

[J.R. King]

The fact that this deal is for minimal money makes all the difference in the world. My worry earlier was that, in the event that he's an ineffective 5-inning pitcher, he'd make start after start and burn the bullpen.

No we know that is probably not going to happen. For $1M, he can make some starts in the minors, audition for the club, and see if he can out-pitch Rodrigo Lopez. If he's ineffective, the team is much more likely to cut ties with him.

Nice pickup.

[loctastic]

Not for nothing, but Roger Clemens had a little 'help' in that regard..

[AWH]

Another thought:

A very motivated Pedro who still has some bullets left will help this team.

And that is the question....is the ammo still dry.

[MG]

Its not a big move but it is likely a possible upgrade over the likes of Lopez/Carpenter. That's really I look at it. Plus, it costs the Phils nothing besides a bit of cash.

Only way this move is a failure is if Pedro is a largely washed up and the Phils fail to keep him in the rotation too long ala Park.

[J.R. King]

Just to clarify, I didn't mean Pedro would have to work his way through the minors and get a call-up as if he were Andrew Carpenter. I meant he will stretch his arm out in some minor league starts. His "audition," of course, will be at the big league level.

[clout]

Last year was Pedro's first season after shoulder surgery and he was troubled by hip problems. The second year back is normally when a pitcher returns to form, but at his age the risk of further injuries is going to be there. Still, it's hard to see how this is a bad idea.

[LGM]

"Pedro says he feels better than he has for years"

-jeez that sounds an awful lot like his quotes from last year....and the year before......and the year before that...

i'm sure this time its for real though.

[Andy]

In re: Dry Ammo

Russian Proverb:
Every ten years an unloaded gun will go off; every hundred, even a garden rake will issue a shot.

I like the move. If he's even 75% of his former self, he will a tremendous lift to the rotation. At 50% he's still probably better than anyone we have beyond Hamels, Happ and Blanton. And given that he is a true SOB of a competitor, I imagine he will be hell on wheels against the Mets.

And we didn't have to give up Drabek.

[TheGodfatherSJP]

He's cheap, he's a veteran, and for a time he was the best pitcher in the game. We'll give him a few starts to see if he's back or not, and it's not a big investment. If Pedro's healthy, we just made a steal. A guy who throws 6 innings and has an ERA of 4.0 for his starts is exactly what this team needs.

[Andy]

On the Bobby Abreu front, the pick of the litter may end up being a runt. Jesus "formerly the wrong catcher
named Jesus" Sanchez has become a pitcher at Lakewood. In his last six starts, he's given up just 7 earned runs. In that span he's walked 6 and struck out 23.

Monasterios who?

[dmac]

Not for nothing, but Roger Clemens had a little 'help' in that regard.

Who's to say Martinez didn't spend the last few months juicing and working out? Hell, maybe that will make him put up spectacular numbers with the Phils.

[donc]

ESPN reported that Pedro was immediately put on the 15 day DL?

[JB]

He does appear to be in better shape based upon his picture walking the streets yesterday versus the picture from the WBC.

I think there is no downside and look forward to his first game.

[chicks dig the longball]

The only downside is the organization is out money. It seems I have spent the last 15 years wishing the Phillies would spend some of my season ticket holder money on improving the team. This move is a move the Phillies would never have made 5 years ago and should be applauded.

[Sovereign Ronnie]

Sorry to rain on the parade, but Pedro's last 3 years:

@CBP: 4 starts, 18.1 IP, 7.86 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, .278 BAA.

vs. FLA: 6 starts, 32.1 IP, 4.18 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, .262 BAA.

vs. WAS: 3 starts, 19 IP, 4.26 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, .224 BAA.

vs. ATL: 6 starts, 35.1 IP, 6.11 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, .283 BAA.

I see no way this ends well.

[mvptommyd]

donc: Yea, with a mild strain of some sort. Most likely, just want to rest him for a bit. I think they brought him here for mainly the August/September run then cut him for the playoffs.

I am ok with the signing. But warning everyone. Pedro is going to be another Moyer. Going 5-6 innings with 3-5 runs. I am ok with that considering he is a 5th starter on this team. Although, he may fry out bullpen. With that Said, this team still needs a legitimate #2, with Pedro in the bullpen (Has been discussed with the Phillies FO along with media outlets before the Phillies got him).

[Pete Happy]

The Phillies need to see what Pedro has left by 7/31 (or sooner, if someone else steps up to the BJs demands) to help evaluate whether they need Halladay and whether Happ is expendable. That's the real deadline. If he really is on the 15 day DL, that doesn't give him a ML start by then, which is unfortunate. Hope they can tell enough by his starts in the minors.

Any word on Lopez's or Old Dirty Bastardo's injuries? That would come into play as well.

[sneed]

Pedro isn't here to pitch out of the bullpen and is signed for $1 mil with incentives. The Phillies got a good deal out of him and if they pay him out, it will mean he has earned his extra money. It is always good to have the incentives of the player aligned with those of the team.

He still had some gas left at the WBC. I'd prefer to give him a chance over the final 2 months then turn to Bastardo, Moyer or Lopez 2 out of every 5 days.

[Pete Happy]

And I'd give it at least 50/50, if not better, that Pedro had some "special vitamins" when he was in the DR.

[RSB]

I agree with your take on this, Jason. If Jamie Moyer can keep his career alive at 46 with smoke and mirrors, why can't Martinez at 37? I think the over/under is in his favor. The only problem is that he'll have no margin for error with the skeptics; as with Moyer, every ball that goes rocketing out of the yard will mean, unequivocally, that he's done. But I like his chances to give the Phils a chance to win games. And it is a big deal, no matter what, to have a name of this magnitude on your team.

[mvptommyd]

Very interesting news from Toronto. According to the NY times

In the midst of all the Roy Halladay speculation, there is something you should know: Any team acquiring Halladay probably would not be able to negotiate with him until after a trade were complete.This is from boston.com and ballhype.com....

"According to a baseball source, the Toronto Blue Jays will not allow any interested team to negotiate with a player should a trade be agreed upon prior to the July 31 trading deadline. In some cases, teams shopping a player like Halladay will allow interested clubs to negotiate with the player prior to formalizing a trade. In this case, the Jays have no such intention."

As I said a couple weeks ago. If the Jays trade Halladay, Ricciardi is basically firing himself and gaurenteeing after Ricciardi's 2010 contract is done, he will be out in Toronto. Considering all the fan backlash. Therefore, Halladay, most likely is going nowhere. This is a plow by Ricciardi, to get teams on the phone, then switch the attention to Rios or Wells.

[CJ]

The plan all along was to immediately put Pedro on the DL. He's not in playing shape yet and needs to be stretched out at the minor league level. He'll have a couple of starts there and should be with the big club around August 1st.

Mitch Williams was on the Dan Patrick Radio Show this morning and he said he's a big fan of the move. He says one reason interest in Pedro picked up as the year went along is because most teams didn't believe he could be a full year starter. In this case, he's only pitching for about 2 months at the big league level.

[mvptommyd]

sneed: Last week ESPN and MLB Network both reported, Pedro would be willing to pitch in the BP. IF we acquire a #2 at the trading deadline. Absolutely 100%, Pedro if he is still here will be moved to the bullpen.

[mvptommyd]

RSB: Moyer is still kicking at 47 because he has ALWAYS been a slow ball pitcher. Pedro, pitches opposite. That is why there is such a big Question mark.

I like the move,but would prefer a #2 with Pedro in the BP. Similiar to a Chan Ho situation. He had a chance to start then got moved to BP.

[CJ]

mvptommyd: "This is a plow by Ricciardi, to get teams on the phone, then switch the attention to Rios or Wells."

That's one of the funniest things I've ever read.

Amaro: Hey, I hear you're dealing Halladay.
Ricciardi: Yeah, well... I need your top 7 prospects and you can't negotiate with him.
Amaro: Well, we can't do that.
Ricciardi: Okay... but while I have you on the phone, let me tell you about these two great OFs we have available!!!

Just plain stupid.

[mvptommyd]

CJ: Are you kidding! That happens ALL the time. GM's start talking about one player and then switch to another. The Phillies that wouldn't happen with. But the Cubs, Cards, Giants, etc... that WOULD happen with.

[The Truth Injection]

There were many reports that this was never about money to Pedro. Reports said when he signed people would be shocked how much it was for. I would say this deal fits that set-up. Pedro has a chip on his shoulder and I think an angry Pedro with something to prove will benefit the Phillies. The book on Pedro was always that he was a pitcher who could throw stuff by you, but also outthink the hitters. So he is smart. I think using some guile he will return to form somewhat. If he only gives us a bunch of 6 IP, 3ER starts that is fine too because the money is really reasonable.

The only thing I would say that could be a negative is this. If you want the Phillies to bring in Halladay, my guess is this was their move. The timeline of Halladay becoming “available” and the Phillies showing a deep interest in Pedro is way too close. My hunch is the Phillies inquired on Halladay and balked at the asking price. They decided to bring in Pedro (and maybe a lesser guy like Washburn) instead of selling the farm for the big gun. On one hand I’m ok with that, and on another I’m not. It’s a hard decision for Rube to make. You can cash in and go for Halladay and hope he brings another title to the team in the next year or two. Or you can try and nurture the farm system- that is really starting to turn around- and hope you can create a system where fresh blood keeps getting pumped in every few years. This keeps some players costs down and gives you some more flexibility going after free agents to fill your biggest needs. It’s the same theory the Red Sox have employed the last few years and the Yankees of the 90’s did. For me, I’ll take being a sustained competitor over the high risk move, but everyone has a different strategy when it comes to that.

[mvptommyd]

I am telling you, Halladay is going nowhere this year. NEXT year he will be traded.

I mean come on Toronto is asking for Happ, Drabek, Taylor/Brown, and a LL prospect + You can't negotiate with Halladay until after the trade. I am out at that point. Toronto doesn't want to trade Halladay.

[Steve The Met Fan]

Pedro is done. Having said that he'll probably go 7 & 0 just to spite the Mets. But to the poster who thought he'd go to the bullpen, that would never happen because it takes him too long to get loose.

[timr]

Unlike many other people, I think the Pedro signing signals that they won't be going after Halladay. Hope I'm wrong, but this just feels like the Phillies: tease us with Halladay but settle for Pedro.

Better hope he does have something left, because for better or for worse Pedro is all the help the rotation's getting.

[sneed]

Tommy: How can you say "100%" that if we add Halladay, Pedro will be pitching from the BP? What if he becomes our most effective starter in September? Wouldn't he then pitch in the rotation? My point was, if you read it, that we brought Pedro in to start, not to pitch out of the pen.

[JBird]

Truth Injector: Top of the rotation starter is the Phillies' biggest need over the next two years, and not to many of those actually hit the open market. John Lackey might, but he's also opened the last two years with extended stints on the DL and is going to be more expensive than Halladay (maybe Burnett money).

[mvptommyd]

timr: Your right, because Halladay isn't available. The Phillies know they needed another pitcher. So took a low cost/high reward chance with Pedro just so they don't have no one come August 1st. Now Phillies will try to strike a deal with a team come July 31st for a #2 type pitcher.

The plan for Pedro was always to sign him, DL him to get him in shape. Then 2 rehab starts in the minors for him to make a August debut. From that point, if Pedro pitches well, the Phillies will keep him there, if not, he will be in the BP or released.

[mvptommyd]

Sneed: True, you are correct. We did bring him here to start. But the signing is basically Amaro "covering his backside" in case they aren't able to acquire a #2 at the deadline.

[Tony D]

No chance they go after Halladay now. They'll win the NL East with or without him, and they'll sell out every remaining game with or without him. They have their WFC.

[curt]

"For me, I’ll take being a sustained competitor over the high risk move, but everyone has a different strategy when it comes to that."

Perhaps, but our new MBA GM is not a riverboat gambler and has made his strategy perfectly clear to anyone who cares to pay attention.

[mvptommyd]

Curt: Why are you complaining?

[curt]

mvp - I'm not. I find it amusing how fans refuse to acknowledge reality, even when it slaps them in the face.

[Bay Slugga]

There is a lot of time between now and the deadline. The Jays stance on asking price and negotiating could most definitely change.

Maybe Rube says, "We will give you Drabek, but let us try and extend him before the deal is done."

Stances change. Don't listen to any of this ESPN BS.

[mvptommyd]

curt: As I said. This move isn't all Amaro is doing. He is "covering his backside" in case they can't trade for a #2.

Who would you rather have in your rotation Pedro who is supposely pitching well 91-93 fastball and good breaking stuff or Rodrigo Lopez? I vote for Pedro please.

Next, Amaro is going to try to get Halladay, but one problem. Toronto is making it impossible to get him. So the Phillies have to wait until July 31st. What would you like Amaro to do??

[G-Town Dave]

I'm not feeling the Pedro to Moyer comparison. More like Pedro to Steve Carlton. It took 2 years & 4 different teams for the rest of baseball to realize what the Phillies already knew, which is that he was DONE. I'm incredibly put off by the fact that no other club in baseball had enough faith in what they have seen from Pedro to even make him an offer, let alone sign the guy. Are the Phillies all of a sudden so savvy that they see something positive which not even one of the other 29 teams picked up on? I seriously doubt it.

[mvptommyd]

Bay: I am not, I am reading Ricciardi Quotes.

Paraphasing Ricciardi:

June 2009: "We will be open to talk regarding Halladay"

July 2009: " We will trade Halladay, but not for cheap"

Mid July 2009: " We will trade Halladay, but not for cheap AND the team may NOT negotiate an extension until after the trade"

That to me means, " The fans will revolt and I will be fired if I trade Halladay."

[Greg V]

Good point on Clemens' "help" but roids will only do so much for you. Clemens still had to be a good pitcher. They sure didn't help David Bell and if he did, he was a worse player than I thought!

[curt]

mvp - dream on, my man.

[mvptommyd]

curt: About what? Your the one living in a pipe dream thinking. "Amaro messed up! We got Pedro and not Halladay. We are done now!"

That is inaccurate.

[joe]

>Are the Phillies all of a sudden so savvy that
>they see something positive which not even one
>of the other 29 teams picked up on? I
>seriously doubt it.

Werth, Victorino, JC Romero and Clay Condrey would like a word with you.

[JBird]

G-town Dave: All the reports I read said that when other teams showed up to scout Pedro, he was a no-show. I don't know if that's because he was already working with the Phillies to extract his revenge upon the Mets or if he just needs to buy a watch. Really, if you want to come back for 1/2 a year to win and you don't need the money, why bother showing up for an audition with the Pirates (for example).

[mvptommyd]

Joe: Good point. At least I have one other positive person on this board right now.

It just seems like Since Day 1, Amaro has been a hated man on this board. Phillies upgraded their team from last year, are having a overall better year than last year, have a 4 game lead in their division compared to 1/2 game last year, improved their rotation from 2 days ago. Yet still the negativity. Sometimes I really don't understand.

[curt]

mvp - I never said anything remotely similar to that "quote" you invented. If you could read you would know I have no such opinion. No more wasting time with you.

[G-Town Dave]

joe: I don't believe any of them sat around for as long as Pedro has. And Pedro being who he is there's no way the guy slips under anyone's radar, as some of the Phils you mentioned may well have.

[Pete Happy]

Agreeing with JBird. Assuming that Pedro wants another WS ring, there are only a limited number of clubs which both need pitching enough that he'd have a chance to start instead of the BP and would be willing to sign him. And in today's economic environment, even at 1.0M plus 1.5M for incentives, he was probably out of reach for clubs with smaller payrolls.

[Reverend]

Why would Toronto grant time to work an extension? Halladay is under contract for this year and next, that gives the team that trades for him a year and a half to negotiate an extension. Why would they want to give the trading partner more time and give the chance for the trade to fall through? What Toronto is doing makes perfect sense.

[mvptommyd]

curt: Well then explain what you meant then? If you whole thing is to complain that Amaro showed his hand. That is part yes, part no.

EVERYONE knows the Phillies only need 2 things.

1. RH bat
2. #2 Starter

Amaro doesn't need to hide what he is going to do, it is obvious. The whole test for Amaro, is how far will he go to get what he needs. Concerning Halladay, I am acting like he is not on the market from here on out. Because basically he isn't!

[JeffS]

Rev,

He has a no-trade clause. Picture this scenario -

Halladay: I won't waive the no-trade to go to team x unless I get an $$$extension.

Ricciardi: Well, we're stuck, trade cannot go through.

[Pete Happy]

Reverend: you might get a higher price if the team can get an extension done and know that they'll have Halladay long term.

[mvptommyd]

Reerend: Because no team in their right mind would trade their BEST prospects for 1.5 years of a player. What happens usually is the team negotiates an extension before the trade is made. They reach a extension. Phillies send 3 top prospects and 1 LL prospect, Phillies have Halladay with an extension and everyone is happy.

Ricciardi, is basically knowing he made a mistake in the fans eyes and backpeddling now.

[The Truth Injection]

JBird: Are we assuming Hamels is not the Philies top line starter? The need a #2 at least- a #1A at most. I think the market for #2 pitchers will be vast over the next two years.

With Carrasco and Drabek, maybe Savery, ready to contribute in the next 2-3 years I think we have some blood pumping up through the system. And I'm not one who buys the window closing argument. The window can stay open if you have good, young talent constantly coming through the system

[JBird]

I'm starting to suffer from Halladay Trade fatigue.

[JeffS]

JBird - thinking the same thing. Can you imagine another two weeks of this discussion?

[Bay Slugga]

MVP: You make assumptions that aren't based on FACTS, but opinions you have read from various corners of the internet. Do you have exclusive inside information from either front office to back your claim that Halladay isn't really on the market and it is just a ploy by the Jays?

Hate to burst your bubble, but Halladay IS on the market, and if the Phillies pony up the prospects he will be in red pinstripes come the deadline. I refuse to dissect every quote from every analyst about Halladay's availability, and until the deadline has passed without a move, I will continue to believe that Amaro is actively perusing Halladay.

[Pete Happy]

16 more days . . . . . .

[AWH]

joe, add Greg Dobbs to the list of current Phils players who would like to have a word with G-Town Dave.

tommy, I have to disagree with your assessment that "Ricciardi is basically firing himself" if he trades Halladay.

Suppose, for instance, he does a deal with the Phillies, and the four top players he gets in return are Happ, Drabek, Marson and Taylor.

1) Happ slides right into their rotation. If, by the end of 2010:
2) Drabek continues to progress and is poised to join the rotation (he may actually be IN the rotation by then),
3) Marson is on the MLB roster as, at the very least a backup - and maybe as a starter - and,
4) Taylor is on the team as at least a reserve OF or possibly platooning with Travis Snyder in LF........

then Ricciardi will have earned himself an extension with the trade.

He could potentially yield 2 starting position players and 2 SP out of the deal.

If that happens and the Phils do not at least go to another WS with Halladay (and hopefully win), and he leaves as a FA after 2010, who will you say got the better end of the trade?

[mvptommyd]

Bay: No, but from being a sports fan for years, can read into what GM's are doing by the way they talk.

"Hate to burst your bubble, but Halladay IS on the market, and if the Phillies pony up the prospects he will be in red pinstripes come the deadline. I refuse to dissect every quote from every analyst about Halladay's availability, and until the deadline has passed without a move, I will continue to believe that Amaro is actively perusing Halladay. "

Amaro, WILL actively persue Halladay, but with the combo of Toronto's asking price, Extension not going to happen until after a trade, Ricciardi wanting to keep his job AND the fans up their going Bizerk. This will not happen...BUT I hope it does.

[Met Fan]

I wish you the best of luck with all that.

[Sophist]

Not sure if anyone posted the slideshow of Pedro in Philly post-physical and of this early career yet. Some great pics, including Pedro walking down Chestnut in a prize T-shirt.

http://www.philly.com/philly/gallery/Pedro_in_town.html

[mvptommyd]

AWH: That's my point. No team does that deal without the extension in place. There is no shot the Phillies give that much up for 1.5 years. Zero.

[bay_area_phan]

"I'm incredibly put off by the fact that no other club in baseball had enough faith in what they have seen from Pedro to even make him an offer."

That concerns me too. But then again, it wouldn't be the first time that 29 teams have collectively been wrong. For $1M, it seems to me it's worth a shot. Pedro's problem in recent years has been that he has rarely been healthy and, when he was, it never lasted. That may well happen again but, if he can stay healthy, there's a decent chance that he's still productive. And if not, they haven't made a huge investment in him, so they can easily cut ties.

If he's completely washed up, I think we'll know pretty quickly. Pedro should be dominating minor league hitters by his 2nd or, at latest, 3rd start. If he isn't, this experiment is almost 100% certain to end badly.

[JBird]

Truth Injector: Not that many #2's go on the market either. AJ Burnett was last year and he got 5 years and $82.5 million in a down market. Anymore it seems top flight pitchers either get re-signed or traded to a team that will sign them long term. Derek Lowe was the only other #2-type starter on the market last year and he got 4 years 60 million. In 2008 there were no #1 or #2's available on the market.

[Bay Slugga]

Do you know the fans are going "bizerk"? You are thinking in the mindset of a contender - You would go "bizerk" if the Phillies traded Hamels for future considerations. A lot of times fans on teams that are in rebuild mode like trading their old expensive players in hopes of a bright future.

While doing some work on a pirates blog to promote my own blog last week I noticed just this. People on the blog were saying, "I hope player X has a great run until the deadline so his value is at a high."

Maybe the fans would actually get excited about Drabek, Taylor, Marson, Happ, etc?

[G-Town Dave]

JBird: I believe one of the teams Pedro reportedly no-showed for was Milwaukee ... Sure, maybe not the sexiest market in MLB, but certainly as much of a contender as anyone else.

Regardless, I'm not claiming I have some great insight or specific knowledge into Pedro's prospects for success, I'm just highly skeptical. For every reason one can think up to view this move optimistically there is a corresponding reason to be pessimistic. I suppose we shall have to wait & see ...

[EastFallowfield]

The day after the AS game traditionally feels like the longest day of the season and with all the Halladay debating it's gonna feel even longer.

[Bay Slugga]

I think everyone is skeptical about Pedro's current ability, I know I am. However, I think there is a chance he can be effective if he is healthy, and 1 million is worth the risk.

[mvptommyd]

Bay: Yes, I know for a fact they are. Because I read the Toronto Newspapers and blogs everyday.

The fans want to keep Halladay, they don't want young players for him. The overall opinion is if Halladay goes, Ricciardi goes with him.

[JBird]

G-Town: If you are Pedro F'n Martinez, you don't pitch for some podunk town like Milwaukee. C'mon. Can you see Pedro as a Brewer? please.

[mvptommyd]

Bay: The fans in Pittsburgh are like that because that team is already dreadful. Theya re building for the future. They brought in a bunch of young guys already. Along with most likely trading sanchez. Pirates and Toronto are in completely different scenarios.

[Bay Slugga]

I have to agree with AWH in that Jays have a chance to add a few solid starters in the next few years with this deal.

[JBird]

MVPTommy: Toronto's not going to win the AL East with it's current core either. They need to ride out the Vernon Wells fiasco and try again in 2014. . . .

[CJ]

I can barely handle the sheer idiocy coming from mvptommy today.

On one hand, he says the Blue Jays are NOT trading Halladay. On the other, he says the Blue Jays asked for our top prospects. I'm confused... are they trading him or not?

Then we get this gem:
"Because no team in their right mind would trade their BEST prospects for 1.5 years of a player."

The Brewers dealt their best prospect for about 3 months of CC Sabathia and did not negotiate an extension.

It happens all the time.

[mvptommyd]

VBird: I realize that. But the fans don't. They think they are 1 or 2 players away from the Wild Card.

[bay_area_phan]

One thing I don't really get is the view that, if Pedro comes in and has a 5-ish ERA, everything is hunky-dory since he's only expected to be a 5th starter. If Pedro comes in and has a 5-ish ERA, it's really not clear that he'd be an upgrade over Rodrigo Lopez. Besides, he is NOT being brought in as a 5th starter. We already have a starter with a 5.99 ERA. If anyone other than that is your 5th starter, you're in serious trouble. Besides, if all the Phillies wanted was a back-end starter, there were far safer options out there than Pedro Martinez (i.e., Paul Byrd, Jon Garland, Jeremy Guthrie).

Once you get past all of Amaro's rhetoric to reduce expectations, I think the reality is that the Phillies signed Pedro for the same reason that many of us find the move intriguing: because he's the best pitcher of our generation, he's really not THAT old, and, deep down, they think (and we think) it's within the realm of possibility that he can come in, recapture some of his past magic, and immediately become the best pitcher on the team.

Of course, they'll never say that's what they're hoping for because they don't want to look foolish if it doesn't happen (which is probable). But that's what they're hoping for. And it's what we Beerleaguers are hoping for too.

[mvptommyd]

CJ: Yea. But they Brewers didn't give up hardly anyone. Toronto wants top guys. You are the one being ignorant today not me.

Show me a trade where the organization traded 3 of it's best prospects for 1.5 years of a guy. Also, theyw eren't allowed to negotiate an extenstion. Doesn't happen.

If Toronto wanted Happ and 2 LL prospects for Halladay. I couldn't care less about the extension but dealing who we are, no way that happens.

[CJ]

Who says no other team was interested in Pedro? Apparently both Texas and Pittsburgh were interested in adding him as a starter and a handful of other teams wanted to add him as a reliever.

Pedro wanted to pitch for a team that could get him to a World Series. Apparently, a piece of unfinished business for him was not getting to the World Series in the National League. He clearly sees this as his chance.

[The Truth Injection]

JBird: There are a few pitchers who will be available this off-season that would qualify as #2 material (which is hihgly arbitrary anyway). I also wouldn't be against resigning Brett Myers who would fit the bill.

[bay_area_phan]

CJ: Well, they couldn't have been THAT interested or he would have been signed long ago.

[JBird]

MVPTommy: I don't feel like looking it up, but wasn't the Teixera trade between Atl and Tex something like that.

And the Brewers gave up LaPorta. That was pretty big (though he was blocked at every possible position and had Gamel coming up behind him)

[mvptommyd]

bap: 100% Correct.

[CJ]

bap: As I said earlier... no team wanted to sign him earlier than now because there were concerns about his ability to last the year. Also, just because Texas or Pittsburgh were interested that doesn't mean Pedro was interested in playing for them. The contract proves that it was not about the money but more about the situation.

[CJ]

mvptommyd: "Yea. But they Brewers didn't give up hardly anyone."

I rest my case. Someone in this discussion doesn't know what they're talking about. I'll let you decide.

[AWH]

tommy, I see your point and you're entitled to your opinion, but I don't necessarily agree. If the Phillies FO thinks Halladay will virtually guarantee them a WS return, then I think they might pull the trigger regardless of whether they get an axtension from Halladay. Besides, just because Ricciardi says he won't allow them to actually "negotiate" an extension before a trade doesn't mean the Phillies can't test the waters with Halladay and his agent before they pull the trigger to see what he might be looking for and accept. If they think they can get a deal done afterward.....

Let's be fair. All this is pure speculation.

Actually, the Phillies have 16 days until the deadline.

They have 16 days to see what they got with Pedro.

They may conclude that if Cole turns himself around, Blanton continues to pitch in 2009 like he did in 2007, Happ pitches to a 3.50 ERA and eats innings (I don't expect his current streak to continue indefinitely - but, you never know), and Pedro is a welcome surprise, that they have enough in place.

If Pedro actually exceeds expectations, the Phillies may feel it takes the pressure off them to sell the farm to get Halladay.
_______________________________________________

You see, the Jays will probably get more for Halladay now than they will during the offseason, and given their financial situation and the Rios and Wells contracts, it's highly unlikely they'll be able to re-sign Halladay - ESPECIALLY SINCE HE'S NOW MAKING NOISE ABOUT WANTING TO MAKE THE PLAYOFFS. (What do you think the Jays' chances are in the AL East?)

So, Halladay is probably gone after 2010.

What will the two draft picks in 2011 get the Jays?

Compare that to what they could get in a trade today - and not just from the Phillies.

You say Ricciardi would be firing himself if he trades Halladay?

I say he might be doing that if he doesn't.

[mvptommyd]

JBird:"The Braves sent rookie catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia and four minor-leaguers to Texas for the powerful, switch-hitting Teixeira and left-handed reliever Ron Mahay."

So, it wasn't 3 top prospects and 1 LL prospect that toronto wants. If toronto wanted 1 A prospect and 3 LL prospect for 1.5 years of Halladay, I do that deal. But no way for the price they want, with no talks of extension before.

[mm]

Yeah but think of the endless ESPN coverage of the phillies that will result now that we have pedro. World series win last year, leading their divsion the year after, possible repeat, one of the best cores of player in the game...meh who cares. But you signed pedro? Can Peter Gammons get a seat on the team plane for the rest of the season?

[JBird]

Ok, I looked it up, Texas got back
Matt Harrison
Elvis Andrus
Jarod Saltamacchia
Neftali Feliz
Beau Jones

Salty, Andrus, and Harrison were ranked #1-3 in the organization by Baseball America, and Neftali Feliz (not in the top 10 at the time) is Texas #1 prospect in the #1 system in baseball.

[mvptommyd]

CJ: "They dealt top prospect Matt LaPorta and three other young players to the Indians for reigning American League Cy Young Award winner CC Sabathia"

No you don't know what your talking about. Brewers gave up ONE top prospect and 3 LL prospects for CC. NOT THREE top prospects.

[CJ]

Like Mitch Williams said on the radio today. The Phils want Halladay and they're actively trying to get him.

The reason? It's simple.

Put Halladay on this team and there is a clear and real chance of a team winning three consecutive World Series rings. I agree with Mitch.

The Phillies offense is as dynamic an offense as there's been in baseball in decades (not including Rocky Mountain aided teams). Add that to two aces... and the sky is the limit for 2009 and 2010.

[MG]

Last thoughts:

- Even if he only starts 3-4 games for the Phils, Pedro will make a notable mark here along from his sound bytes. DSL and WIP must be salivating this.

- It's hard to be down on this move but how the hell can people call it a "high potential reward" move? It is a move the Phils made because Pedro might be better than their limited choices at the No. 5 spot (Lopez, Carpenter) but to expect Pedro to be much more than a guy who is tolerable is really grasping at straws.

- It is really hard to judge this move alone until you see what happens over the next 2 weeks but since when is spending a $1M bucks on a guy who hasn't pitched all year that laudable?

Its a move you make to marginally improve your team but the Phils are seemingly doing a bitch too much turd polishing here because of Pedro's name/cache. If this were a guy like Byrd, you wouldn't see them try to push the positive PR angle as much as they are.