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« Madson’s overstated slump; AA All-Stars named | Main | Game chat: Phillies try to maintain pace in NL East »

Wednesday, July 01, 2009

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This is the right move. Lopez has been every bit as good as Carpenter of late, but has a major league track record, and by all accounts, Carrasco is still not "mentally ready" for this spot. Why take a Gavin Floyd shot with him?

ABSOLUTELY BRUTAL !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Hope he gets bombed by the lowly mets on friday. What is wrong with giving Carassco a shot..talk about runining someone's confidence..This is the worst news ever !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

You could kind of see the Rodrigo Lopez move coming, once they pushed the vacant spot back to Friday. Believe it or not, I agree with the decision. Let Carrasco have some sustained success at AAA before calling him up.

Lopez has had sort of a crazy career but he has had some very good seasons. He's certainly not too old to still be effective and, with nearly 2 years passed since his TJ surgery, he should be as healthy as he has been in a long time. Based on track record, he's no less likely to be decent than many of the names who are being tossed around in trade rumors (i.e., Wang, Bannister, Pavano, Young).

I have no idea how he will do in 2 stars before the ASB and I am willing to bet the Phils don't honestly have a clue on how Lopez will do either.

Really a kind of grasping at straws though that is really a stop-gap until they acquire another arm.

The one thing I do wonder though is that Gillick seemed to be willing to roll the dice on younger arms over the past couple of years (Mathieson, Hamels, Kendrick, etc). Wonder if Amaro has a slightly different viewpoint on that topic and promoting a guy like Carrasco.

I would have preferred to see Carrasco, since he is the only guy who might catch lightning in a bottle and pitch well enough to slot in 3rd or 4th in a playoff rotation (my biggest fear is that they trade good young talent for a rental player who isn't all that good and still come up short). But this move makes sense. See what Lopez can give you, keep Carrasco in a spot where he is doing well.

This was more than a short-term decision. The have to be willing to give Lopez at least 3 or more starts given the scenario. If he pitches poorly, no biggee, they release him, and either someone picks him up or he stays in the mionrs. If he does well, he'd have to stay, otherwise another team will pick him up. Because of that, I can't see this being a one time only start.

I do think it's a good move; time to sink or swim with him. If he does well, it alleviates a small portion of the pitching need via trade. If he does poorly, oh well.

If he pitches poorly, can Lopez be sent down or does he have to clear waivers?

Clear waivers...hence my opinion in my previous post.

Getting back to Madson, why is he so in love with his fastball now? Why no change-ups? Is he the David Putty to Cole Hamels' Jerry, and is not allowed to use Cole-Jerrys move?

What is there to like about the move?

No matter what, it wouldn't change that they need to figure something out in terms of getting another starter in here. If the trade market was solid for pitchers, sure, go ahead and make this move.

But, with the trade market being what it is, it doesn't do a whole lot of good.

This move makes sense if they're going to use Carrasco as trade bait. If they bring in Carlos and he bombs then his value goes down.

I don't like it, but the reason it makes sense is that they have no long term investment in Lopez. If he pitches poorly they cut him. If Carrasco pitches poorly you have to worry about the damage it might do to him.

Oh no, Bler revolting IF Lopez gets bombed. Friday will be a fun one on here, that is for sure.

For the record concerning my opinion of Taylor. I have seen him play. He is good. BUT I want him to have 2-3 AA/AAA seasons of batting .325. Why .325 you ask? Because he hits for average. If he makes it in the Majors, it won't be because his power (HR's). Also, I want him to improve on his route running, along with being about to read the ball coming off the bat more effectively. He needs improvement in those areas. Too many singles turned into doubles due to this aspect of his game. Secondly, I don't HATE Taylor. I have just learned that you can not treat prospects like this as a game changer, because of 70 games in AA. I don't want to hear, "But MVP, he bated this well in Clearwater/Lakewood etc...". That means nothing in those leagues.

Again, I think Taylor will be a "nice" Major leaguer, but nothing like what some of you expect. The reason I like Mayberry "better" is because he has more of an upside. He will be the Homerun hitter. He won't hit for average, he will strike out. BUT he will hit bombs. He also has a better arm, has more experience, is older, can read routes and the ball off the bat better.

So in conclusion do I like Mayberry better than Taylor NOW? Yes

Do I think Taylor can be a productive Major Leaguer? Yes

Do I think Taylor will be a game changer? NO

MG: How can you know anyone will do before they actually pitch?

Lopez has a major league track record. They know more about how Lopez should do than Carrasco, who has no experience.

Hibachi: What's the risk? David Aardsma currently has an ERA of 1.49 and 16 Saves. Rodrigo Lopez has pitched well at Lehigh Valley and owns 65 big league wins, is right handed, and, worst case, he doesn't do well. He's shovel ready.

I have, at least, figured one thing out.

Using "neutralized statistics" which compensate for differences in pitching verus hitting during different eras, I now know what has happened to Rollins at age 30.

JR (age 30) .202, .243, .318, .561
BW (age 30) .204, .262, .276, .532

Rollins is turning into Bobby Wine!

"Hibachi: What's the risk?"

I'm not saying that there is risk. I'm just saying there is not reward.

Lopez is not going to be a pitcher for them in the playoffs or down the stretch.

MPN - I agree. Especially with "shovel ready."

MPN-
and if Lopez bombs we can use that shovel to bury him.

I bring up the Aardsma non sequitur in my last because, while touted at spots, he's pitched on 5 teams in 5 years and never shined before this year.

Well crap, I'm going to Fri/Sat, and I have this guy and Moyer to look forward to? Ugh.

Hibachi: Carrasco won't be here for the upcoming run eithier. Come August 1st, the Phillies WILL have a #2 Starter. Who you ask? I am not sure...

Is this for real?

PHILLIES SHORTSTOP JIMMY ROLLINS RECEIVES HIS WIIINGS AT JULY 4th GAME VS RIVAL NEW YORK METS


The First MLB Player to Join the Red Bull Roster, Rollins to Arrive to Game in Tricked-out Vehicle: The Red Bull MXT

WHAT: Rollins will arrive to the Phillies July 4th game raring to go in the hooked-up Red Bull MXT truck as Jimmy gets dropped off at MLB’s biggest rival game. This is Rollins' first appearance as a Red Bull athlete and is the first MLB player to be supported by the energy drink leader.


**INTERVIEW OPPORTUNITY WITH JIMMY**
Rollins attracted Red Bull by his emerging superstar status and dynamic on and off the field. Besides being an All Star and MVP Shortstop, Rollins spends his off-season recruiting new talent for his music label Bay Sluggas Inc., hosting bowling fundraisers for the Arthritis Foundation and collecting custom cars.

WHO: Philadelphia Phillies Short Stop Jimmy Rollins and Red Bull

WHERE: Citizens Bank Park JETRO LOT and PLAYER'S ENTRANCE
One Citizens Bank Way
Philadelphia, PA

WHEN: Saturday, July 4th , 2009 12PM

JV and Andy: Yeah, well hopefully we are due one of those lightning in a bottle performances that happen. I just hope he's a little more Dave Stewart A's/Jays than he is Dave Stewart Phillies!

hiki: Yeah, this whole slump has just been a marketing campaign. July 4th he turns it on and hits .690 from here out!

mvptommy: But at the same minor-league levels, Taylor has hit for much more power than Mayberry. So what are you talking about?

A power hitter who gets on base at a low clip and strikes out a lot is not close to as valuable as a .300+ hitter with good power. I'm done talking about this, it's just insane.

Jack: Ok, talk to me in a couple years when he is an average MLBer. Think whatever you want, but your wrong. I am done too, I don't need to prove anything to anyone. I have been right on here waaaay more than I haven't. So that along, should tell you I know what I am talking about.

Rodriguez, a pitcher with 65 career wins, including two 15-win seasons and one 14-win season, has "no upside," but Carrasco, a pitcher with 0 major league wins and a 4-7, 4.92 record at AAA, does?

On Lopez: It's an interesting short-term play. I think they've made the right decision with Carrasco, not jerking him around in the middle of a pennant race. And if they consider Lopez to be more effective than Carpenter, then I would have to say the call is the right one, but noting that it's the lesser of evils more than being a positive move.

"but your wrong." You have no way of knowing that right now, either. And if Taylor is an "average MLBer", there's a chance that still means he is better than Mayberry.

mvp: Yeah, you were dead-on right about Chan Ho Park and Miguel Cairo and signing Jamie Moyer to a 2-year contract. Those moves have all turned out great.

Taylor = Stud

Tommy: I can't help but be honored to play a part in the performance art display that is your participation on Beerleaguer.

Bed Beard: Sure there is a chance, I am standing by my statement.I am also nearly 100% confident, he sure as heck won't be the next coming like some on here portray him to be with their nightly updates of him......

mvp is an ass...and even a worse ass than clout, who at least understands the fundamentals of logic and reason.

BAP: I am sorry, I was wrong about Chan Ho after he pitched lights out in Spring Training. I am actually RIGHT about Cairo, because he would be an UPGRADE over Bruntlett. Also, Moyer has pitched 5 of 6 good starts. And is 3-1 over that span. I am sorry, so in recap wrong only about Chan Ho as a starter. BUT right about everything else. With Moyer still being up for debate, but going to be right when he pitches well from here on out.

A thought just occurred to me mvptommyd = Beerleaguer's Uncle Rico.

A key point in the discussion is that Lopez has been better than Carrasco recently (last three starts where he's been excellent) and more important has had better control, which means less chance of a blowup.

I just love when people argue with me by comparing stats and they fall flat on their face being dead wrong in the end. All I have to say is Ibanez and the conversation ends there anyway....

BAP: So Rodrigo Lopez should be every bit as good as Chris Young?

Interesting.

I would absolutely love to play Texas Holdem with mvp, because based on his understanding of statistics and chance, he'd go all-in before the river while holding an Ace of spades and a 2 of spades when the community was showing 4 hearts...

I just want to know from everyone sinc eI am obviously overall disliked. What have I been wrong about this year???
Miquel Cairo? Well as I said he would be better than Bruntlett.

Jamie Moyer? As I have said, he has pitched well since end of the May.

Chan Ho as a start? Ok, I am 100% wrong on that one. That goes to teach me, not to use stats as my decision maker.

Other than that I have been on the RIGHT side of each debate. So why am I blackballed on this blog? Not that I care, because this is the internet and not real life. And according to people on here, they are smarter than newspaper writers, 610 hosts, (GM's) Amaro, yet none of those things are their job descriptions.

Wang has been bad this year, but I think i'd still take him over Lopez.

I think Lopez starting is the right move. The Phillies love to play the hot hand when it comes to calling guys up from the minors, and Lopez has been just that.

No need to rush CC because his numbers are less than stellar.

Mets win, Marlins won, it'd be nice if we'd win too...

clout: Chris Young, at his best, is obviously a better pitcher than Rodrigo Lopez ever was. But Young also has a 2009 ERA+ of 73 and is currently on the DL. So, yes, Lopez is -- to use the exact words I used before -- "no less likely to be decent" than Chris Young.

By the Way, Cairo with the Iron Pigs is .297, 24 runs, 4 HR, 20 RBI's.....

MVP: At the time of the Miguel Cairo debate, the choice was not between Cairo & Bruntlett. Bruntlett was already on the roster and the debate was whether having BOTH Cairo and Bruntlett would be ok. You believed it would be.

BAP: No, no, no...The debate was whether Cairo would be ok on the bench. I said yes. Now, he had a bad start but seems to have gotton his swing back. Given that would I take him over Bruntlett? As Sarah Palin would say.." You Betcha'"

Tommy: But since Cairo isn't a power hitter, he needs to hit .325 for two years for me to be cool with calling him up.

MVPTommy- the disdain for you on this blog has nothing to do with your guessing percentage on who will be good/not good in the first four months of a season, its because you have an obnoxious tone and make silly arguments with no subtlety. That plus the fact that you are now clearly lying about how much you have seen Taylor play make you pretty annoying.

Plenty of people (including me) liked the Ibanez signing. But absolutely no one but you is foolish enough to go against the landslide of stats and scouting reports that say Taylor has a much higher upside than Mayberry.

Jonesman: First off, Don't call me a liar. Secondly, it's my opinion, so deal with it.

MVP: Yes, the debate was whether he would be ok on the bench, WHEN WE ALREADY HAD BRUNTLETT.

As for Cairo getting his swing back at AAA . . . I need to see him post those kind of numbers for at least 3 years before I'll accept them.

Lopez, Chacin, Carpenter, Carrasco -- all guys we have to "find out about." Might as well find out about the guy with the most experience. If he is back to 15-game-winner form, we'll be calling Amaro a genius.

It's a good decision given the options. But it's still a fifth-starter experiment, which the Phillies can afford to do in early July in a weak division. Basically, Lopez has a shot to be what they hoped Kris Benson could be.

bap: Chris Young's two best years as a starter, ERA+'s of 129 and 117. Rodrigo Lopez, 128 and 120.

JV hit it on the head earlier. Lopez is called up because using Carrasco carries a huge risk. As a prospect who has some buzz around the league, CC is a prospect the Phillies can tout. Prospects have value before they play in the majors and after they do well in the majors. In that middle ground is where many prospects die.

If the Phillies bring up Carlos Carrasco and he pitches like garbage than his value drops considerably as we near the trade market. As it is now, he stays in Triple A and his value doesn't really take a huge hit in any one direction.

I have a hunch that leaving Carrasco in the minors means Amaro plans on moving him in a deal.

This is setting up to be a perfect storm day. The friggin' Mets win a 1-0 squeaker against the lumber laden Brew Crew, then the dang Fish continue their choke hold on the worthless gNats by upping their season record against them to 9 and zero! This is unbelievable.

Tonight, our "ace" takes the mound to uphold our feeble one game lead over the rotten Fish. I smell a loss coming tonight. Break out the brewskies, it's going to be a long agonizing night. Now I know why they call this site "Beer"-Leaguer. We need beer to get us though these nerve shattering seasons.

Now I supposed to get excited by Rodrigo Lopez? Not me. I already fell for the feelthy Bastardo build up.

Brian G: No one can seriously argue that Lopez at his best is/was as good as Young at his best. Just look at their peripherals & strikeout totals.

My point is: Young has not been decent this year & he is currently on the DL. If the goal is merely to find someone serviceable for the rest of 2009, Lopez is as likely to achieve that goal as Young.

This year:

Eric Bruntlett's OPS+ is 8

Miguel Cairo's OPS+ is -38

That is not a typo. A reasonable person (and yes I realize that excludes mvptommy) can simply not say Cairo would be a better option.

Truth: Not that I'm advocating a call-up of Miguel Cairo, but that OPS+ is based on a grand total of 17 PAs.

Last year, Cairo's OPS+ was 75. Bruntlett's was 55. I think a more than reasonable case can be made that Cairo is the superior offensive player. In the past, Bruntlett was the better defensive player, but I'm not even sure that is true anymore, since his defense seems to have slipped.

Don't like it.

Just proves to me what I have thought all along...

This organization does not like or trust young players. They stunt their growth and would rather go with a 35 year old journeyman, then the 23 year old prospect. Its happened for years.

Lopez is just a older version of Kyle Kendrick. He might look good against the AAA Mets lineup on Friday (who doesn't, nowadays?) but Lopez is just another soft tossing old guy, with no upside and no future here. He was never anything special, even in his prime and healthy.

Carrasco COULD be special. Has been as good as anyone in AAA ball, the past month. Is he ready for the show? We'll never know. If he was in another organization, we might get an answer.

I hope Carrasco goes out and blows away Norfolk tonight. I would not be surprised, after being teased, that he does not pitch well tonight. He had to have his hopes up and now basically knows he will be going nowhere the rest of the year; no matter how he does.

If I were Drew Carpenter, I'd be pissed too. What else does he have to do at LV? I'd be hoping for a trade, so I could move on and get a real shot with somebody, if I were him.

BAP: OK, so you're saying that even though Young has a career ERA+ of 107, has been an All-Star, has better stuff, a better WHIP and better pretty much everything than Lopez, because he's hurt we should not expect Young, when he returns, to pitch any better than Lopez, who has a career ERA+ of 93 and hasn't pitched in the big leagues in 2 years.

Interesting.

"I have a hunch that leaving Carrasco in the minors means Amaro plans on moving him in a deal."


No way. Carrasco is going nowhere. He is one of the 4 or 5 minor leaguers, that the Phils will NOT trade.

They just don't trust their own kids to come up and do the job. That is what this is about. No trust, in one of your 2 best prospects in your system.

What if he came up, and pitched like he did when he got promoted from AA to AAA last year? What if you found your starter you were looking for, right there under your nose?

CC has the talent and has been pitching as well as anyone in AAA the past month. But, Lopez was the "safer" choice. So as usual, the Phils go conservative and safe. No surprise there.

Brian G: So you would say that Rodrigo Lopez is every bit as good a pitcher as Chris Young, right?

I'm not surprised.

denny b: I agree with everything you say about Carrasco, but I'm not sure this is about trust. I think Lopez is up for 2 or 3 starts max, that Amaro is making a trade for another starter and Lopez is strictly a stopgap.

"As for Cairo getting his swing back at AAA . . . I need to see him post those kind of numbers for at least 3 years before I'll accept them."

b_a_p shoots .... HE SCORES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I think the reason for not bringing up the rookies right now is, would you want to be pitching for a team that is losing ugly right now. The team is not hitting and the bullpen is losing games.

If Lopez does not impress, but the team starts to hit and the bullpen starts to pitch. Then bring up the rookies. There would be too much pressure on them now.

clout - I'm with you. Everything I've heard about Carrasco makes it sound like he's one bad inning away from unraveling, and we've seen that in young pitchers before. Hamels had the maturity to work past it; some didn't. At this point, I'm OK with this for a start or two, or maybe even three (if he pitches well).

Anything beyond that, though, and this isn't a playoff team.

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