Post-All-Star primer: It's all right in front of Phillies

The second half schedule features few twists and turns, beginning with a four game series starting tonight against the Marlins.

It all seems so simple for the Phillies, doesn't it? At 48-38, and with a four-game lead in the National League East, the defending champs appear poised to control their own destiny for the final two-and-a-half months. The Phillies ran roughshod over the Mets, Reds and Pirates during their latest homestand. Was it a sign of things to come, or the result of a good team beating up on inferior competition? Either way, the rest of the schedule sets up against many middle-of-the-road clubs, a similar set-up to previous seasons.

One of the first things the Phillies need to do figure out is figure out a way to beat the Florida Marlins consistently. Here's hoping the Phillies can quickly leave the distractions of All-Star week behind them, because this is easily the biggest series in weeks. The Phillies have nine games left with their closest competition in the East, and this four-game set represents a golden opportunity to start putting a stamp on the division.

Later this summer, they'll see more Atlanta; the Phillies have been woeful against the Braves. After the Marlins' series, they'll get their first crack at the Cubs, a team that may be poised for a big second half. At the end of the month, they'll travel to the West Coast for a road trip that will include the pitching-tough San Francisco Giants, the current Wild Card leaders.

It may seem all so simple, but with everyone gunning for them, and dangerous teams peppered throughout the schedule, the Phils need to be on their game. A good place to start would be to have some better outings against teams like Florida, and to get guys like Cole Hamels, Jimmy Rollins and Brad Lidge going.

Comments

[clout]

AF: Actually, the Abreu deal was Gillick's although Jack, like all Beerleaguers, blames all bad things on Wade and credits all good things to Gillick.

While the Abreu trade did not yield a single useful part, the Rolen and Schilling trades did, though they were bad trades made even worse by subsequent decisions.

Rolen got the Phils Polanco and Mike Timlin. Polanco, an excellent fielder at 3B and 2B, went on to have seven seasons averaging above 100 OPS+ and winning a Gold Glove. Timlin went on to have 6 seasons averaging well above an ERA+ of 100.

Unfortunately, neither of these things happened with the Phillies. They dealt Polanco for Ugeth Urbina and they declined to sign Timlin at th end of the 2002 season. The Red Sox got him for $1.8M.
One could argue that the Rolen deal wasn't too bad, but decisions made on the players acquired were hideously bad.

The key players in the Schilling deal were Omar Daal, Travis Lee and Vicente Padilla. Here again, the haul wasn't terrible but subsequent decisions were.

Daal went 13-7 in his only year with the Phils and was traded to LA for "can't miss" prospect Eric Junge. Daal went 11-9, 3.90 with the Dodgers while Junge, like most "can't miss" prospects, missed.

Padilla had ERA+ of 101, 110, 118 and 99 in his first 4 years with the Phils, but the Phils traded him to the Rangers after he had a down and injury-plagued year in '05 in exchange for "can't command" prospect Ricardo Rodriguez. He's been a decent back-end starter for the Rangers ever since with 2 healthy seasons out of 3 (going 15-10 and 14-8 with losing teams). So far this year he's 7-4, 4.53.

Lee, the softest, least-heart ballplayer I ever saw, played two years before the Phils let him walk. He was no loss.

Again, you could argue that the Phils got maybe 60-cents on the dollar here (better than they got for Thome) but wound up dropping the 60-cents down the sewer. And, in the Schilling and Rolen trades, that was Wade's fault.

[AWH]

clout, excellent post at the end of the last thread on the Abreu/Rolen/Schilling trades.

JW, you are correct. Going forward it all seems so simple, except that the opposition would love to complicate things for them.

As they have enough guns in the lineup to score consistently - enough to endure a slump from one or two of them - IMO it will all boil down to pitching.

With that in mind I offer this:

I've been sitting around thinking/speculating (a dangerous proposition, I know) about what the Phillies' thought process might be regarding signing Pedro and potentially trading for Halladay.

Pedro was signed because, and I quote Jr.(ref: Inky):

"We've been talking to many clubs, but the price to acquire pitching is tough. We had to think of ways to do that."

I think it's pretty clear that the Phillies are balking at the price other teams want for their SP, particularly Toronto.

But let's look at the situation as it stands today, and how the Phils may be looking at it.

J.A. Happ, since joining the rotation, has gone 4-0 in 10 starts, with a 3.03 ERA, .239 BAA, a 1.209 WHIP, a 1.91 K/BB (44/23), and a .725 OPS giving up 10 HR in 65-2/3 IP.

Roy Halladay, since hitting a low ERA of 2.52 on May 22nd, has posted these numbers in 7 starts (which includes a short stint on the DL):

3.38 ERA, .273 BAA, 1.208 WHIP, a 5.38 K/BB (43/8), and a .671 OPS giving up 5 HR in 48 IP.

Happ has thrown 1018 pitches (63% for strikes) in those 65 innings (16/IP) while Halladay has thrown 688 (68% for strikes) in 48 IP (14/IP).

Thus, the biggest differences seem to be that Halladay has been more efficient, gives up less HR, and has the ability to put hitters away when he needs to.

Also, prior to his recent 'slump' Halladay was a much more effective pitcher that the above numbers suggest.

Despite the 4-0 record, the Phillies are 5-5 in Happ's 10 starts, BUT...............when Happ left the game they were either ahead (6) or tied (3) in 9 of those games. One can only conclude that had the 'pen been a little more solid, the Phillies could easily have 1-3 more wins.

The Jays, OTOH, were 2-5 in those 7 starts of Halladay's. OTOH, they were 10-3 in his first 13 starts.
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So, is it reasonable to assume Happ (a ROY candidate BTW) can continue to pitch at this same level?

And what would one expect from Halladay in the NL where he would get to face the opposing pitcher at least twice, but would have to hit himself?

He also might get lifted for a PH in tied or close games which would reduce IP and contribution.
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In examining the above numbers, it's possible the Phillies may be looking at it this way:

Yes, Halladay is a clear upgrade from Happ.

BUT, (assuming Happ continues to pitch to at least a 3.50 ERA) IS HE ENOUGH OF AN UPGRADE to justify giving up Happ, Drabek, and either Carrasco, Taylor, Marson, Donald or Brown (pick 2 or 3)?

Thus is their dilemna.

They may be waiting to see what they can get from Pedro before they make any decision to trade for anyone.

[Bedrosian's Beard]

People understandably love to complain about losing (at the time) top prospect Gio Gonzalez in the bad Garcia move, but forget to mention they got him in the Thome deal.

Wonder why?

[Bay Slugga]

AWH: You bring up some good points, and this is the argument for people who do not want to acquire Halladay. My main problem is that Happ might just be successful because hitters haven't seen him. I don't see good offspeed pitches from Happ, and I think he makes a lot of mistakes with high fastballs.

If the Phillies do make a deal it will most likely be in the 11th hour. They will want to assess what they currently have in Happ, Lopez, and Pedro to decide if the investment in Halladay (prospects) is worth the rate of return (Halladay = WFC ?).

[Tony D]

If they rolled out Moyer-Halladay-Hamels-Blanton in this series I think they'd win 3 easy, unless the BP blew a couple games.

We gotta get that guy.

[Lake Fred]

Bed Beard brought up the Garcia deal, where the Phils paid ten million dollars for ONE victory plus gave up Gio. Pedro can win one game and he won't rank as bad as that Garcia deal!

The Fish scare me. It's going to be hot in Miami. That will either warm up our hitters or wear them out. We saw in the news where that 11 year old girl hooked a 193 pound fish in Spain. Our guys ought to be able to hook these Fish. Can't let a little girl out do them!

[TK]

I'm pretty sure we still have 12 left with the Fish. They've only played one series each at home, with the Phils 4-2. They play 5 more time in sept./oct. and have an August series in Philly.

[loctastic]

Hey, real baseball is back? Can we stop talking about that great white whale from Up North now?

[Mac Tonight]

clout: The Rolen deal was terrible any way you slice it. We acquired nothing that could be used to build toward the future. Whether or not the prized pig at the time demanded a trade, we would have been better served to keep him for the length of the contract.

AWH: I break it down like this -
Is Halliday enough of an upgrade to justify giving up an effective young pitcher under team control at a minimal salary (which will allow the team to spend money in other areas)?

Is a season and a half of him worth giving away most or all of our prospects that could contribute for years to come or could be used as trade bait in smaller, less dramatic deals that plug the necessary holes (the argument that trading for Blanton was more wise than trading for Sabathia)?

Can any other team who can take on the salary realistically offer what we're able to offer for Halliday? (many would argue "no", as we are consistently identified as the team in the best position to make the trade in the national media).

Can the Blue Jays financially afford to play hardball with the league? Does our "need" for an ace outweigh their need to dump salary?

I stand by what I said before: he probably will end the season in Toronto, but if he goes, it will be for far less than everyone is expecting. In the current economy, and in the Blue Jays current financial position, getting that kind of money off of the books is a reward in and of itself. The Jays hold absolutely no leverage, and as other teams enter the market to trade starters at the deadline for a more reasonable return, Halliday's trade value will decrease.

Riccardi is a motivated salesman, and when the product is an expensive luxury item that no one truly "needs", the salesman NEVER has the leverage. Never. The rest of the league would be no worse off than if the lame duck never opened his mouth to the media.

[TK]

Most looking forward to: The 7 games vs. the Giants in early August out there and early Sept. before Labor Day in Philly.

[Bubba]

Finish the year with three at home vs FLA in October-12 total left.

[Jack]

Clout: Who is this "can't-miss" prospect Eric Junge? He wasn't drafted in the top few rounds and I can't find him on any prospects list from back then.

Looks like it was a terrible deal by Ed Wade, not surprisingly. But you seem to use that "can't-miss" tag as if people thought he was a top prospect. From what I can tell, nobody did. So your implied argument against "can't-miss" prospects is a strawman, no? It's not like this guy was the Kyle Drabek or Michael Taylor of his day.

[Bay Slugga]

I'd like to open this forum for a Mac versus MVP Halladay debate. CJ's head might explode though.

[AWH]

Slugga, your point about Happ's high fastball mistakes is probably reflected in the number of HRs he's given up.

Oh, and for the record, I am in favor of trading for Hallday.

Jason Stark was on with Mikey Miss' yesterday. He thinks the hillies "window" is really only this season and next. Thus, he would do the trade for Halladay.
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One thing that needs to be mentioned, though, is that, while we may think the Phillies' window in only 2009-2010.....the Phils FO may not think the same.

They may feel that with Carrasco and Drabek in the wings - with Happ, Hamels, Blanton, Drabek and Carrasco, along with Taylor, Brown Marson and Donald bubbling up from the minors(plus what they might get from Mayberry or one of the other position players), that they can seriously contend beyond 2010. And that's not to say who surprises and makes it to the bullpen or rotation(Bastardo, Carpenter, Worley, etc.).

If that's what they are thinking the decision to trade for Halladay is going to be really tough.

[Bubba]

Something to ponder from Phillies .com on Cole:

Scouting Report:
Phillies: Concerned about the toll on his young left arm, the Phillies decided to give Hamels an extra day of rest out of the All-Star break. Hamels threw 227 1/3 innings last year and 183 1/3 in 2007 versus 132 1/3 in '06. "His workload has been increased tremendously," pitching coach Rich Dubee said. "So we still got to get Cole in the right mindset." Hamels has been inconsistent this year. His seasons of ups and downs reached another trough on Saturday, when he allowed three home runs to the weak-hitting Pirates. He only received a no-decision because the Phillies rallied for five runs in the ninth.

[AWH]

Jack, you're being silly picking at that minor point.

Daal was dealt partly for salary reasons, and because the Phillies implied Junge was "can't miss" in order to justify the trade.

You obviously haven't been following the team long enough to remember.

[Jack]

Bubba: Yeah, some of us have noted his extreme jump in innings and warned for a while that he may not be as effective this year. It's why I think the criticism of his performance is a little bit ridiculous.

We rode his arm to a WS win, which was totally worth it, but there are consequences to that. That's a tradeoff you make; throwing a 24-year old for 266 innings (including playoffs) is a very dangerous thing to do, but we had to do it to win a title.

[AWH]

In Met news, Ollie Perez pitches tonight in ATL against Derek Lowe.

It Should be interesting to see how that turns out.

[Jack]

AWH: I understand what happened. Thanks though for telling me how long I've been following the team, I had forgotten. Glad you could clear that up for me.

I also understand that Junge was, to nobody, a "can't-miss" prospect, regardless of what the team said. Clout was using that point to try and imply that top prospects often fail. But since Junge wasn't a top prospect, the conclusion fails.

You obviously missed what I was trying to say.

[Bay Slugga]

Jack: If we mortgaged Hamels arm last year for a WFC, should we not mortgage prospects for Halladay this year?

[Pete Happy]

A good series against the Marlins and there's even less pressure on Amaro to make the Halladay deal any time before the trade deadline. Lose the series and the "we only need him for the playoffs, not to win the division" argument doesn't look as good.

15 more days of this . . . . . .

[Cipper]

Question,

the trade for Halladay, assuming it happens, would cost a little extra this year.. about 7 - 8 million i'm guessing, but wouldn't we be able to afford him anyways after the season? I'm asking this because don't we pay Eaton and Jenkins about 8 million each this year since we "let them go"? thats 16 mill this year that they could potentially spend next year right?

[Bedrosian's Beard]

Cipper: Yes, but they have arbitration raises to Hamels, Howard, etc., so they don't really save money.

[AWH]

One more point on Pedro:

Does anyone think that he really doesn't believe he can pitch anymore?

I think his answers at the press conference were designed to lower expectations.

IMO, if he really didn't think he could get MLB hitters out he wouldn't even be attempting to pitch anymore.

Also, if he really can consistently hit 89-91 MPH on his fastball, he could be a very, very pleasant surprise.

[Jack]

Cipper: Once you factor in all the raises due to players already on the team (Werth, Howard, Hamels, Victorino, Blanton), that money goes pretty quickly. There is not a whole lot of money coming off the books next year.

[Bubba]

Jack - Agreed.
My concern is that with a tired Hamels and an injured Myers we are riding on a rotation that will , at some point in the second half, over tax the bullpen. We saw what that looks like earlier this year.
A 4 game lead is great, but a 1-9 stretch can make that disappear just as surely as a 9-1 stretch made it happen.
J. Happ could well be the key to '09.

[AWH]

Cipper, in my analysis above I never mentioned money.

I really don't think, with 37 sellouts under their belts and TV rating that are probably commesurate with that, that the Phillies FO is really worried about having to pay Halladay.

IMO their real concern is the long term.

Is he worth the prospects, who they may feel will keep them in contention for the next 5-8 years?

Jack, I did miss what you were trying to say. Thanks for clearing it up.

[JBird]

Hamels and Howard signed contracts buying out their arbitration years. There are raises built in, but they aren't "arbitration raises"

[The Philistine]

While a lot of the focus is on the trade for Halladay, and deservedly so, this Phillies team is more than capable of a WFC repeat as it is presently constructed. Here's why we can win it all again without mortgaging the future:

* The loss of Myers hurt, but his spot has been replaced by the more consistent Happ.

* Bullpen troubles are an area of concern that needs to be rectified, but having Romero in the mix to start the second half will greatly reduce the pressure on Madson and Lidge. Chan Ho Park is proving to be a reliable innings eater out of the pen. While Lidge may not be fully healthy, I don't think there is any way he can perform worse that he did in the 1st half.

* The lineup is stronger than it was in 08. The Broad Street Bombers still hit skids in the road from time to time, but this team scores runs when it needs to (see 9th inning comeback vs. Pirates), and it can outslug any team in the Major Leagues. It will be interesting to see which Phillie ends up with the most HRs and RBIs. My money, of course, is on Mr. September Ryan Howard.

* We are 10 games over .500 and lead the division by 4 games even though our 2 most important players (Rollins, Hamels) were subpar in the 1st half. Rollins is now starting to put together quality at bats and is getting on base like a leadoff man should, and Cole Hamels should pitch better as the games become more important.

SECOND HALF PREDICTION (With or without Halladay): 45-31

WFC Repeat

And FWIW, I'll take the R.O.Y. over Roy

[Pete Happy]

Re: paying for Halladay, from Zoecki's blog:

"Reports the Phillies won't pursue Roy Halladay because of his contract are inaccurate, according to folks I've talked to. Amaro even said today they still have flexibility this season to add salary. This trade comes down to one thing: prospects. Who do the Blue Jays want, and who are the Phillies willing to give up?"

[cipper]

I say give 'em Carrasco.

[JBird]

Can we end this farce that J.A. Happ is a #2 starter? He's a 4/5. That's better than KK. He's great to have on the team while he's young and cheap. But, he's not someone you build a team around long term and he's not someone that you really want starting game 2 of a playoff series.

[sneed]

Round 1: Jack vs Clout

Winner: Jack

[paco]

Jack: I think clout was being sarcastic with the "can't-miss" label applied to Eric Junge.

[Bill]

You guys make up silly trades. We don't need anything. We're going to win the World Series anyway. Then we have all our prospects left and have a star bright future. Not like our country under that old General Electric Theater actor in the 1980s who mortgaged our future to live in the present and then it went ... KABOOM. He knew he would be dead when his voo-doo scheme crashed. Hahahahahaha, you dumbells. You have to smart and remember what Godfather Michael Corleone said to that Senator from Nevada. He said, "Senator, here's my offer: Nothing. And I'd appreciate you picking up the cost for the casino license." Hahahahahahahahaha. That's what our General Manager Ruben Amaro should tell Toronto. Then he will be feared. We ain't tradin Kyle Drabek, who Charlies says reminds him of Tom Seaver, to you at all. Then they'll all know Ruben means business. The Philadelphia Phillies Dynasty, 2007- 2020.

[Cipper]

Final offer to Toronto:Eric Bruntlett for Halladay.Meets everyones needs. They want a SS, we want Halladay.

[bay_area_phan]

Actually, no one mentioned this but, at the time of the trade, the "key piece" of the Rolen deal was thought to be Bud Smith. He was the Cards' top-ranked prospect in 2001, pitched a no-hitter in his rookie year, but then went 1-5, 6.94 in his sophomore season before the Phillies acquired him. He pitched fewer than 75 innings in the Phillies' system over the next 2 years, before winding up his career in the Indy Leagues.

[Bill]

Who is this Abreu guy and what has his team done in the playoffs?

[Jack]

Sneed: You should have seen what I did to him when he tried to compare Werth's "struggles" against right-handed pitching to Howard's "struggles" against lefties. It was laughable, and Clout knew it. He ran and hid after I and many others on here called him out on how dumb it was.

[AWH]

Pete Happy, if you couple that blurb you posted with Ricciardi's public statment that it will take an exceptionally good offer to compel them to trade him, it may be a case where "never the twain shall meet".

In any event, while I know we will be discussing it for the next 2 weeks, and there will be many rumors and much speculation printed and on blogs, the Phillies are 4 games up.

They are likely to wait and see what they have with Pedro, see if Happ and Blanton can continue their good runs, and try to nuture Cole Hamels back to "his old self".

If they deal for Halladay, it's likely Slugga is right: It will be at the 11th hour.

[Bubba]

Cipper - Charlie is 0-1 this year managing games without Bruntlett.
You sure that price isn't too high?

[JBird]

Good ol' Bud Smith. I think he was Baseball Weekly's Minor League pitcher of the year one year.

[AWH]

Here's a question:

If the Phillies continue to play well and extend their lead to 6-8 games by the trade deadline behind decent but not great pitching, AND...it looks like Pedro has some bullets left and may have a positive impact, how likely is it the Phillies trade for Halladay?

[JBird]

So are there anyother pitchers on the market besides Halladay? Washburn doesn't seem like an upgrade to me, plus the Mariners still feel like they are in the race. Haren's supposedly not going anywhere. Webb's hurt. Are Meche and Duke still not available? What are those teams waiting on?

[Bay Slugga]

I think a Halladay deal could be contingent on Happ's success these next few starts. If he keeps eating innings with only a few earned runs, AWH will probably be right. The FO won't think Halladay will be that much better than our breakout Happ and we won't trade for him.

If it becomes apparent from now until the deadline that Happ is going to continue to pitch well, look for Amaro to make a Blanton like trade. Doug Davis anyone?

[Cipper]

Bubba: While Bruntlett might make everyone on the team feel better and more confident about their batting averages and looks, giving even Uncle Cholly more confidence in himself, Halladay's arm could be a big asset added to the Phils rotation. With Bruntlett gone and us being Philly fans, we surely will find another goat to make fun off... possibly Sarge or Wheels or T-Mac?

[Pete Happy]

AWH: I agree, I was just pointing it out because the "can the Phillies afford Halladay" question seems to keep on coming up.

[colton]

Just listened to a Keith Law podcast & not surprisingly he says he doesn't think the Phils match up well for a trade for Halladay. Says there lots of depth kinda guys in the system but no elite talent that Toronto is looking for.
Says if the Cards dangled Rasmus, that would be the basis for a deal. I mean there's no way they're trading Rasmus.

EFF YOUUUU KLAW!

[JBird]

Cards aren't trading Rasmus b/c besides Pujols the rest of the team really isn't generating a lot of offense.

[Cipper]

What about Lee? I hear he is available...

[JBird]

I don't know why Klaw doesn't like Philly's prospects. He seems really down on Drabek.

[JV]

Happ, D. Brown, Carrasco, Donald, plus 1 lower level guy (Gose?) for Halladay.

I'd like to hang onto Marson as I think that ol' Bako magic won't last, and Chooch is still dinged up.

Re: Pedro - I like that we have a starting pitcher with a personality. Haven't had that since Myers went down.

[Bedrosian's Beard]

Didn't Klaw also add that the Phillies have a lot of depth in their pharm?

[AWH]

Boy, every other commetator/expert says the Phils have the prospects, and keith Law says they don't match up well.

I'll bet if nothing gets done he'll say it's because they didn't have the prospects and declare himself 'right', as opposed to the reality, which is they probably don't want to give up said prospects.

There is a reason Law is no longer employed by a MLB team.

[colton]

I think he was basically saying that these guys being talked about from the Phils were unquestionably 'good' prospects but that there was no one guy that profiles as elite or 'A 60' prospect, meaning all star calibre. Which he deems necessary in a Halladay trade.
That's what I got from listening to him.

[JV]

If not Halladay, who? Lee, Oswalt?

[Bedrosian's Beard]

All those guys are hit or miss and all try to come with their own spin/angle. There's always phans who say "X hates the Phillies!!" and I think that's BS and Klaw isn't too bad.

[Bridoc10]

If it's true that Toronto is looking for MLB-ready pitching, how might they react to a Happ, KK, Donald deal? Both Happ and Kendrick have pitched - and won - at the major league level.

Of course they want Drabek, but this kind of deal, as time passes, might get it done.

[JBird]

No, I like Keith Law. I just have been puzzled by his bearish attitude on the current crop of Phillies prospects. Baseball America seems to like them well enough.

[Bonehead]

Bridoc-If you were the BJ's, would you take Happ, KK, Donald for Halladay?

[JBird]

I think Kendrick would actually make the offer less valuable, not more. Could you imagine his numbers in the AL East. . . .

[colton]

I think the Blue Jays like Happ well enough but if I were them I'd be a little concerned about how he'd fair in their division.

[AF]

Cards, Dodgers, Sox, Yanks, Angels...Whoever gets Halliday will be the favorite to win this year.

Of course history is full of favorites who have lost.

[Bridoc10]

@ Bonehead:

If it's true that my team were at least two years away from contending - as many have said - and I could plug two spots in the rotation and one in the infield with this deal, AND give my team some payroll flexibility, I might.

There might be some wishful thinking in there, also.

I would add Brown or Taylor to this offer to sweeten it considerably, thus holding on to Drabek, Knapp, and either Brown/Taylor.

[Dutch's Delorean]

JV:

We could trade for both of them. Front three of the rotation:

Lee. Hamels. Oswalt.

Call em the assassins.

[The Truth Injection]

"Blue Jays looking to dump salary"

- source, Mac Tonight's drunk uncle at a family 4th of July picnic.

Not one credible source has reported that. The actual report is they know they can't resign Halladay because of the money owed Wells and Rios. Somehow Mac twisted that into his fantasy scenario.

[Cipper]

What about a 3 way trade? One in which we give up only Bruntlett and KK, and get Halladay... Maybe the Nationals will give up their entire farm, I'm sure they have no better plans.

[Unikruk]

Keith Law also picked the Rays decisively over the Phils and has been bullish on the Mets for the last three years.

[Alby]

"...they declined to sign Timlin at th end of the 2002 season. The Red Sox got him for $1.8M."

They didn't "decline" to sign him. Timlin told them he despised the city and wouldn't sign here, period.

[Brian G]

Just did some quick math using Cot's Contracts.
Looks like next year, after factoring in my guesses on raises for Vic/Blanton/Happ/Ruiz/Clay/Durbin, the Phillies will owe just about 110 million in salary, and need to fill in 1 rotation spot, 2 BP spots, and 4 bench spots.
The # jumps to 115 if we pick up Feliz's option, if not we need a 3bmen.
The bullpen spots are backend and should be cheap(Escalona/Walker?), and the bench shouldn't cost much as long as we don't trade Donald and Marson.
As for the rotation spot, maybe we'll have Halladay, but if not it might be beneficial to both sides to offer Myers arbitration.

[clout]

Jack: You missed my point entirely. My point was that while initial trades were weak, the subsequent moves (i.e. Daal for Junge) were worse. Regarding "can't miss," please don't take everything so literally. That's just my shorthand for a touted prospect. At the time of the deal, Junge was much praised by the Phillies FO and described as a #3 starter. And, yes, most prospects do fall short.

[That Dude]

BREAKING NEWS: Michael Taylor has been called up to Lehigh Valley and mya be in the lineup tonight.

[clout]

Dude: Great news. Let's test the kid.

[JMARR]

Dutch - f'n hillarious on the "assassins" post.

Clout - amen, can't wait to see what Taylor does at Lehigh Valley - not much left to prove in Reading.

[clout]

It is always interesting to me to see posters who care far more about the team's bank account than they do about the players the team acquires.

[Bonehead]

Good analysis Brian.
So, from an affordability point of view, Phils can take on Halladay's salary and still keep 2010 payroll at approx $135MM.

[curt]

http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/articles/2009/07/16/sox_fans_at_a_loss_during_all_star_break>The nightmare is almost over.

[clout]

alby: "Timlin told them he despised the city and wouldn't sign here, period."

Huh, I don't recall ever seeing that before. Was it in the local papers?

[dick allen-15]

taylor call up suggests two items for discussion: 1. room for Brown to now be promoted to Reading 2. give Taylor some at bats during August and then promote him to the majors once rosters can be expanded in September. Maybe the Blue Jays requested to see how he does in AAA prior to them pulling the trigger on a trade. God knows I dont want Taylor going anywhere but in the Phils outfield but the intrigue is unique.

[Alex]

Word is that Michael Taylor is getting promoted to AAA. Is it risky to promote someone you're trying to use as a trading chip?

Keith Law (1:12 PM)

More reward than risk for a player who's performing really well, as Taylor was. If he continues to perform at the higher level, his value increases. Speaking of Taylor, had two conversations with scouts about him and Drabek in the last week, and they independently said the same things - Taylor was a solid 50, and Drabek was a 2/3 rather than a potential 1. Both questioned Taylor's power potential.

[Bubba]

Curt- Amen.

In just 6 hours "All Halladay....All the time" gives way to WFC Phillies baseball!

[McG]

Where does Michael Taylor fit into the long term plans? He is an up and coming star but where does he play? We have 3 All-Star outfielders. How does he get to the big club in the next 2-3 years?

[Jack]

Clout: But everyone knows most prospects fall short. Only the really, really top ones are referred to as "can't-miss". You know, the Strasburgs, Wieters, Justin Uptons, going back to Griffey and A-Rod, and etc. So your shorthand is really misleading. Especially when you then claim that most "can't-miss" prospects don't succeed.

That's like me saying that most "great" pro golfers don't win Majors, and then defining "great" as anyone on the PGA tour. Doesn't really make any sense.

[ozark]

David Clyde?

[Mcnesby]

Who is supposed to be a better prospect-- Taylor or Brown?

[Bedrosian's Beard]

On the flipside, Kevin Goldstein said this about Taylor, yesterday:

heeler (Peoria, IL): Michael Taylor….good major league outfielder or future all-star?

Kevin Goldstein: I think at a minimum, he’s somewhere in between that — an above-average every day guy and occasional All-Star

[clout]

Jack: As I said "can't miss" is my shorthand for a touted (and usually overrated) prospect. If you have a different definition, that's cool. Whatever floats your boat.

[That Dude]

They waited on Taylor so he could play in the Eastern League All Star game. If he plays well, it does increase his value.

As to future plans, although we have 3 all star OF'ers, their ages are 37, 30 and 30. If he doesn't get traded he will probably be playing at least part time in Philly next year (assuming he continues at the pace he is going)

[clout]

Mcnesby: Brown has more power; Taylor will hit for higher average.

[Brian G]

clout: It's not that some posters care more about the bank account, they just recognize it is a factor that has always been considered by the Phillies, so considering it on Beerleaguer makes the discussions more relevant. It adds context. Based on your evaluations of the Thome trade, it's clear you prefer not to use context when discussing baseball, which is fine. To each his own. Posters that talk about finances don't care about winning any less than you, they just prefer that their opinions about how the Phillies can best achieve success have a basis in reality.

[tjc]

Clout, Brown is supposed to have the better plate discipline and pitch recognition, which I believe is why he's projected as the better prospect.

[That Dude]

I think taylor is someone who will grow into his power as he hits his late 20's. He is a contact hitter who looks to drive to the gaps. At his size the power will come.

[Alex]

Would an offer of Dominic Brown, Kyle Drabek, Jason Donald and Lou Marson be sufficient for Roy Halladay (I am aware from your futures game article, you don't love Drabek and your past articles that you don't love Marson, but that is 2 top 25 prospects from BA's most recent rankings and 2 other at least fairly well regarded guys).

Keith Law
I would not take that offer if I was Toronto, nor would I expect Ricciardi to take it. Marson and Drabek are both overrated, and as much as I like Brown, he's probably two full years away and carries some risk.

[thephaithful]

dammit!!! I am kicking myself for not going to Reading to see michael taylor. No way i go up to allentown.

[Bedrosian's Beard]

I think that is a pretty fair deal for Halladay.

[That Dude]

Remember, Keith Law used to work for JP...and Keith Law is an idiot...Brown and Drabek a 5 star prospects, Marson and Donals are 3 star prospects. You are telling me two 5's and two 3's don't get Halladay? That would be insane.

Also, b4 the season, Law was saying Taylor would be a marginal MLB player and no he is someone between a starter and all star.

TRANSLATED...HE IS A TOOL

[Brian G]

Bedrosian: I agree. If Toronto doesn't feel it's going to compete this year or next, then trading Halladay should be fait accompli. The only way they shouldn't take that offer is, simply, if they get a better one.

[thephaithful]

brown being 2 full years away is what toronto should be looking for, as they are obviously not contending over the next few years, especialyl minus Halladay.

My 2 cents is that they'll need to head the trade with one of their top 50 kids, and include a 'definite', such as Happ since he's proven MLB worthy already, and then depending on the BJs wants, include another top50 kid or a combo of cc/marson/donald.

And maybe 1 more filler type like a real young longshot guy like gose, or maybe a midlevel arm.

So, Drabek Brown Happ Donald Worley ? Pretty pricey, but a rotation with Hamels and Halladay with our offense makes me salvate.

[clout]

Brian G: I understand about context, but it's the knee-jerk defense of the owner's pocketbooks and the obvious greater concern for the team's finances from posters like you that suprises me. To me, baseball is all about the players.

[clout]

I think Keith Law is wrong, as usual.