Wednesday thread: A busy news day in Baseballtown

Outside of Atlanta, the center of the Phillies’ universe is in Reading, where the R-Phils are set to welcome two members of the big club.

Mike Drago of the Reading Eagle reports that reliever Scott Eyre will begin his rehab assignment by starting tonight’s Double-A game against Altoona, then handing it over to Kyle Drabek (4-0, 2.54) for the second inning. Meanwhile, Raul Ibanez, sidelined with a strained groin and already working out in Reading, will be a game-time decision. Not to be outdone, the regular members of the R-Phils are rolling, finishing June 17-11 after a 6-5, 12-inning win last night to go 44-32 on the season. To read more about left-hander Yohan Flande’s Double-A debut last night, click here. (Photo by Jeremy Drey)

Comments

[J.R. King]

JW: Your link goes to a Delco times article on Ibanez, instead of one on Flande.

[J. Weitzel]

Fixed. Too much Phillies in my browser history.

[Bedrosian's Beard]

Knapp with 12Ks in 5 shutout innings of work. 100 pitches-was clocked at 98(!) on the LAST pitch he threw.

[SmokyJoe]

Lineup should be for the rest of the month:

Vic
Utz
Werth
Howard
Feliz
Stairs/Mayberry
Rollins
Catcher (Ruiz looks cooked again)
Pitcher

Good balance, three high OBP up top

Off course, Cholly has it in his head that J-Roll is a "lead-off hitter" and Utley is a "3-hole hitter", so he won't change those two.

By the way, who says you can't have a high OBP player with power hit second? Why is third more optimal? Doesn't it depend on the rest of the lineup?

[Albert]

Third is more optimal because there SHOULD be more men on base in front of him. If Utley played a full season in the two hole you might see his RBI total drop.

Batting Utley second isn't a bad thing if Werth is on a hot streak.

[Dukes]

a real positive - ibanez looks like he will be in the lineup at the latest a week from now. If it wasn't obvious how much he carried the team before he got hurt, it is now.

[Dukes]

I just found myself going over to Metsblog to make myself feel better. Is this an issue?

[WillyFromPhilly]

Don't go too overboard with Flande. He's a cheaper version of Bastardo.

[J.R. King]

Flande is being hyped because he might be moved before the deadline. His inclusion in the Futures game is strategery.

[curt]

I hear Flande's 14 year old son is also a prospect.

[fuzzycopper]

I hear Flande's 14 year old son is also a prospect.

Assuming his birth certificate is correct (like curt, I'm dubious), I haven't seen someone so 'young' look so old since Greg Oden, which is never a good sign.

[Mike]

Just checked out where the Phillies have been as of Ju9e 30 the last 3 years:

2009 39-35 .527 1.5 games up on Marlins
2008 44-39 .530 0.5 games up on Marlins
2007 41-40 .506 6.0 games out

In '08, they paid 83 games at the same point. This year 74. Looking at the 08/09 winning percentages, pretty damn close and last year we were WFC. Gives me hope for this year!

[clout]

Glad to see the posters here getting smarter about prospects. Flande, hailed as a can't miss stud on Beerleaguer earlier this season, has been old for his levels and that's assuming his age is accurate. His dazzling stats must be taken with a huge grain of salt.

[Ryan]

Was Last night's loss to the braves at Atlanta the first since Chris Roberson's epic fail in Sept 07?

[Jack]

Clout: I agree with most of your pessimism regarding Phils prospects, but you always seem to be much rosier on other teams' prospects. For example, I've seen you multiple times praise how good the Marlins' young pitching and how good Chris Volstad is, while downplaying Carrasco as a prospect. Yet, consistently they've been rated very close together as prospects (Volstad 40 and Carrasco 41 in BA 2007, Carrasco 54 and Volstad 58 in 2008). Yet you consistently praise Volstad but disparage Carrasco.

It leads me to believe that you subconsciously are just more pessimistic about Phillies prospects than perhaps reality warrants.

[EastFallowfield]

Yes, that Roberson game was the previous loss in Atlanta.

Last night's doesn't seem so bad compared to that one.

[bay_area_phan]

Per my posts last night . . . the official score has been changed to reflect that Madson's run in the 8th was unearned.

[MPN]

b_a_p: Yeah, it may be unearned, but he still throw a stupid pitch in that count that caused that run!

[bay_area_phan]

Tommy Hanson's stats at A+: 18 starts, 6-4, 2.88

Yohan Flande's stats at A+: 13 starts, 7-1, 2.52

Flande is clearly the better prospect.

[bay_area_phan]

MPN: No doubt. I'm just a stickler when it comes to getting the official scoring decisions right. Like in that rain-shortened win earlier this year where the official scorer originally gave the win to Condrey, even though it should have gone (and ultimately did go) to Carpenter.

[mvptommyd]

Thought I would return after not being here a while. This place is dead without me. Just some thoughts on the last week...

- Interleague play ended with the Phillies posting a 6-12 record( .333 winning percentage). In 2007 we were 4-11 record ( .267 winning percentage). So actually Interleague season wasn't AS bad as last season.

- We are 39-35 with 1.5 lead after 74 games in 2009. In 2008, we were 42-32 with a 2 game lead. Very Similiar, also worth noting last year, both the Philies and Mets were hot together at this point. This yr. both are slumping together.

- Regarding Clout's post above regarding prospects and taking stats with a grain of salt. I am almost never a big prospect guy, but the same people who hailed Flande earlier, sound alot like the people slurping Taylor.

[Bedrosian's Beard]

The Flande "praise" was nothing like the praiser Taylor receives and deserves.

[bay_area_phan]

Easy to overlook after such a miserable loss, but last night might have been the first time all year that we saw the Chad Durbin that we saw in the first half of 2008. Last night's line: 2 innings, 1 hit allowed, 0 runs, 0 strikeouts or walks, 5 groundouts, one fly out.

It's a stark contrast to his stat line this year, in which he has averaged nearly a strikeout per inning, while sporting a horrendous 5.57 walks per 9 innings & a 0.73 ground out/fly out ratio. Last year, Durbin's strikeout rate was much lower (6.44 per 9), but his walks were WAY down (3.59 per 9), and his GO/FO ratio was way up (1.26). It seems that Durbin has tried to transform himself into a strikeout pitcher this year. He has succeeded, but it has come at a huge cost of severely diminished command, resulting in way more walks and fly balls. He needs to go back to being the ground ball pitcher he was last year. Last night, he looked like exactly that.

[clout]

Jack: Downplaying Carrasco? Wow, are you way off. I'm the one who said Carrasco, not Bastardo, should've been promoted.

[NEPP]

Is Flande even a real prospect? Last I checked he was a nice story but not a legit prospect.

To MVP: What exactly does Taylor have to do to be a prospect to you? Bat .400? He's age appropriate for his level as a college positional guy and he's dominating the EL.

[GBrettfan]

mvp, I agree it is encouraging to realize/remember that the Phils struggled last season, as well. Including starting pitching. I would say the big difference this year, however, is the BP. As someone pointed out on one of the forums over at philly.com, Madson and Lidge between them have blown 11 leads. That doesn't take into account leads blown by other relief pitchers, but if we'd won 7-8 of those, even 5-6, we'd be sitting with a more comfortable lead. And I think Zolecki said the BP's ERA since mid-June (11? 16? can't recall) is something dreadful like 7.8- - - If the BP can right itself, esp. the late-inning guys, I think the Phils will be ok. If not, I question our prospects. I realize starting pitching's (in)ability to go deep affects the BP, and I find Hamel's season in particular to be disappointing (in part because of high expectations), but nevertheless, the BP can not continue to blow leads late in games. It not only leads to losses, it leads to disheartening losses. It's not too late to turn it around, but it does need to turn around.

[Brian G]

Who praised Flande or called him can't miss? All I remember is Weitzel saying something like, "this guy has thrown like 20 shutout innings, we should see how he does going forward."

[GBrettfan]

BAP, I agree about Durbin. I was groaning as he was warming up, but he did great. We need more outings like that from him and other middle relief.

[mvptommyd]

NEPP: Taylor needs to do this for a full season to "impress me". Then he has to bat .300 next yr in AAA, if he is there. It amazes me the double standard here. Everyone says "You think Ibanez can do that all year?". Well the answer is obviously "No". Same applies to Taylor. At the end of the year he will be back to earth a little bit.

[Clay Dalrymple]

anybody else perturbed that there have been at least three balls that Mayberry jr lollygagged after in the outfield, all leading to critical runs?

[bay_area_phan]

Tommy: You see no distinction between a 22-year old junk-baller who has come out of nowhere to post nice numbers at Single A, and a 23-year old player with size, speed, power, and a strong throwing arm, who is posting monster numbers at AA after doing the same at both levels of A?

I'm curious. What exactly are your criteria for separating the wheat from the chaff, when it comes to prospects? Other than pedigree (and lack thereof), I mean?

[mvptommyd]

GBBrett: True, our BP hasn't been as effective as this time last year. But isn't it true that all you need to worry about is getting into the playoffs? I mean if you get hot at the right time, like last year, it doesn't matter how you played in June. As long as they continue to stay 2 games ahead of the pack ( 4 games in the Loss column) they will be fine come trading deadline and into Spetember.

[Unikruk]

Since you drew the comparison, did Ibanez not impress you?

[clout]

BAP: You hit the nail on the head. To mvptommy, things like age and skills are meaningless. All prospects are created equal in his view and it's impossible to project one as better than any other. It's a big crapshoot.

[Bedrosian's Beard]

He's hit .340 for two straight seasons (ok, 1 1/2 so far..)

[NEPP]

Taylor's numbers have gotten better from month to month so far...and we've got 1.5 years of almost .350 avg in the minors with great peripherals.

[sneed]

Re: the lineup.

Utley and Werth should rotate in the 2-3 holes depending on the opposing pitcher. Let Werth hit behind Chase against LHP because he has a power advantage and vice versa.

A lot has been said about losing Chase's bat in the 3 hole, but if Jimmy can't get on base leading off, he's basically hitting second already.

[clout]

lay: Lollygagged? Haven't seen that. I have seen him look bad o0n a couple balls out there, but he's playing out of position. He should be in RF and Werth in LF.

[mvptommyd]

BAP: For prospects I look for batting consistantly over a period of say 3 or more years, age, arm strength, Range (if OFer), route running, tendencies in the field and basepaths, velocity (pitchers), being able to throw 3 pitches consistantly for strikes, experience....To answer your question, there is literally a combo of 20-30 things I can't see from a scoresheet that I look at when going to watch prospects.

The difference between prospects and players on minor league clubs is overall one thing. Consistant. It is easy realtively speaking to bat or play well for 1 season. The trick is to develop your game and doing it over a course of the years in order to adapt to the major leagues.

[GBrettfan]

mvp - It is true that if the team gets hot at the right time, like it did last year, then all these losses will be just a memory. I guess I worry about the team's chances to ever go on a tear in September w/o an effective BP. Hopefully and quite possibly, Madson and Lidge will get back on track; and with the return of Eyre and Condrey (all of them healthy, of course) the rest of the BP will also become more consistently reliable.

[clout]

Michel Taylor has hit over .340 in 857 ABs at 3 minor league levels and is age appropriate for Double A, which he is currently dominating.

[RSB]

Clay: I think what it is, is that after Mayberry 'lollygagged' after the one ball (Rolen's double) you're anticipating that he'll do the same for every ball, never mind the fact that he's made a full effort on the other two in question. I assume one of these was on Blanco's single in the 10th. Wasn't his fault. That's a big outfield and runners can go first-third on a ball hit to left.

[Jack]

mvptommy: So Mayberry's consistent .260 Avg in the minors and his consistently lower SLG pct than Taylor is what convinced you he was a better prospect?

Also, I like Sneed's interesting idea of rotating Utley and Werth in the 2-3 spots depending on the pitcher. It's an outside-the-box thought, one Charlie would never do, but with both those guys as high OBP options, when Ibanez goes back, they need to be in the 2 and 3 spots in some order regardless.

[NEPP]

clout, 857 ABs is a pretty small sample size...

~not serious~

[kilbillrain]

As we're coming into prime time trade cycle and the current topic is prospects who are absolutely untouchable down on the farms? I would say only Taylor and Drabek, and maybe Marson seeing as how Chooch is regressing and Coste is finished. Thoughts?

[bay_area_phan]

Tommy: Since your evaluation of prospects relies on so many factors which can't be seen in the boxscore, and since you have declared in no uncertain terms that Michael Taylor is a bust waiting to happen, I'm going to ask for at least the third time: have you ever even seen Taylor play?

[Bedrosian's Beard]

With a list of at least 30 things to check off, i'm sure he's had no time to actually watch the game. I know the "pedigree" box has clearly remained unchecked for Taylor.

Marson's been hitting the ball better since coming off the DL.

[control13]

Mayberry's HR was impressive. The pitch wasn't a meatball and he just muscled the ball out to straight center. He is now averaging one HR per 9.5 AB.

[Brian G]

sneed/Jack: Totally agree with the Utley/Werth rotation idea. Makes a lot of sense, although Werth's OBP against righties has been down a bit this year.

[SmokyJoe]

I think Tommy just assumes that Jrs of major league dads are awesome, because Ken Griffey Jr turned out so well...

[EastFallowfield]

Marlins winning 2-1 in the 5th. Looking to go 9-0 vs the Nats in 09.

[EastFallowfield]

Pete Rose Jr was awesome.

[Albert]

I'm not sure how one can qualify John Mayberry to be a better prospect than Taylor. The numbers don't lie, though apparently mvp thinks they do?

[Bubba]

EF- The NL East may come down to whoever plays the Nationals last.. in which case we better take the Braves seriously for the next two games.
They have 2 series vs the Nats on the last week of the season.

[doubleh]

Don't like the Marlins gaining on us right now. They are of more concern to me than the Mets.

[EastFallowfield]

Marlins up 2-1 in a rain delay. Another rain shortened win?

[Greg S, from Lancaster]

A bit off topic, sorry. I'm meeting up with a big group for the Sunday, July 12th game. We want to tailgate a bit before hand. Besides staying south of Pattison, any other advice for tailgating newbie? Also does anyone have a suggestion of a place to rendezvous before heading over to the parking lots.

Keep in mind, this is a family group.

Thanks.

[EastFallowfield]

Never mind, Marlins game resumed.

[EastFallowfield]

Yo, new thread

[Reverend]

Greg S, from Lancaster You should tailgate at the Holiday Inn Parking Lot, there are a lot of families there on Sunday's and it is a good place to hang.

[Josh Neyhart]

Do you think that Raul will be in Reading tomorrow? I am thinking about heading to the game and would like to know, any insite?

[mm]

If Taylor is as advertised, I wonder what we could get for Werth. I'd say vic too but i value vics defense in center and would trade it off over the slightly better offense of werth.