Saturday chat: Hamels hopes to shine tonight

Cole Hamels (7-6, 4.68) reinforced his sizable day/night splits his last start, giving up seven runs Sunday afternoon when it looked like he had the game in hand. He's back under the lights tonight at Citizens Bank Park against Marlins rookie Sean West.

With all the talk about how the Phillies plan to fit Pedro Martinez into the mix, why do I have a sneaking, sinking suspicion Hamels will somehow play a part in that? Hamels has not been the same this season, and although the club says he's healthy, his 269 combined regular-and-postseason innings last season undoubtedly weigh on everyone's mind. Would a poor start result in a generic "shoulder stiffness" trip to the DL to make way for Pedro? He's up to 123 innings this season, and to be honest, it's hard to remember a single one. Sunday's clunker, which had a lot to do with bad luck, derailed a run of encouraging starts since the All-Star break. The 25-year-old has basically alternated between good and bad starts, so maybe he's due for one, under the lights, tonight. On the season, he's a 4.40 ERA, .256 BAA pitcher at night, a 5.45 ERA, .360 BAA pitcher under the sun.

Extra arms: A quick check of the pregame notes confirms Kyle Kendrick is still around. Kendrick hasn't pitched since July 30 and one wonders if the Phils are just buying time with KK until they're ready to activate Pedro. It goes to show how easily it's been for the Phillies to stash an extra pitcher in the bullpen these last few weeks, a point that relates to a popular Pedro scenario making the rounds in the comment thread, one that would have Jamie Moyer take a two-week breather while Pedro auditions. Nothing is guaranteed with Pedro, but there's simply no better time to tinker. Fifth starter has been an experiment this entire season and it hasn't hurt them. Add to it the fact that the front four are generally pitching great and the bullpen is relatively fresh.

It's been asked before, but it bears repeating. When have the Phillies ever had this much starting pitching depth? Think about the rotation they could assemble using guys from the minors or pitchers relegated to the bullpen. What about a rotation of Pedro Martinez, Gustavo Chacin, Rodrigo Lopez, Kyle Kendrick and Andrew Carpenter? I bet the Nationals would take that. Chacin, by the way, won again last night, lowering his ERA to 3.03 for the IronPigs. Guys like Kendrick or Carpenter are the kind of pitchers who might get moved in a waiver trade. Just something to keep in mind.

Best of the press notes: Over their last 22 games (14-8), Phillies starting pitchers have a 2.87 ERA.

Breaking news: Charlie Manuel told reporters before the game that J.C. Romero, who is out with a forearm strain, "suffered a setback yesterday during a rehab appearance in Clearwater." Beerleaguer: I think it's a safe guess that Romero will not help the club this season. In other news, Scott Lauber tweets Pablo Ozuna was released. The infielder, among the spring candidates for the final spot off the Phillies' bench, was hitting .294/.342/.396. He was suspended in June for using performance enhancers.

Comments

[rolo]

JW, if they had actually been able to score some runs in some of those games, that 14-8 could easily be 17-5 or 16-6.

[Tray]

"With all the talk about how the Phillies plan to fit Pedro Martinez into the rotation, why do I have a sneaking suspicion Hamels will somehow play a part in that?"

Just to be clear, you're suggesting there may be some sort of injury we're not aware of, and/or that they'll make one up or cite general arm fatigue so as to give him some time off before the playoffs? And on Chacin, is relief with the big league team a possibility?

[hiki]

Again, a phantom injury becomes the reason someone isn't performing up to expectations. I really think that excuse should be put on the DL for a while.

[J. Weitzel]

Exactly. Tired arm was what I was thinking, Tray. I wonder if tonight's start will mean more than we think it means if he pitches poorly.

[J. Weitzel]

hiki: So you think his 269 innings last season are irrelevant? He was also shut down in spring training.

[J. Weitzel]

Chad Durbin and Brett Myers both concealed injuries this season.

[GBrettfan]

An interesting possibility - not sure how admirably Pedro could fill in for Hamels, but that's b/c I'm still hoping for the Hamels of last October. Perhaps some rest would do him good, who knows?

Great stat on the recent wins, one that simply proves the axiom "Pitching wins ballgames."

Go Phils!

[J. Weitzel]

Romero suffers setback in rehab, according to Tweets. That's a bad sign. I wouldn't count on Romero this season.

[Tray]

It does seem possible, and wouldn't be a bad idea, but I doubt it's too likely, particularly since we're coming up on the end of the season. The most time he could miss is probably a few weeks before you'd have to get him going again in preparation for the playoffs. How much would you gain from that in terms of rest? That said, it's a good thing we have at least one aceish arm in the rotation now.

[mikes77phillies]

Ronnie Belliard is batting .325 since the All-star break. Since the Phillies have so much pitching depth, would a Rodrigo Lopez for Ronnie Belliard trade make sense? Not sure if Lopez would pass through waivers though.

Belliard would be an upgrade to Eric Bruntlett IMO.

[Tray]

In your opinion, mikes, and I'd assume in everybody else's. Although, prior to the break he was putting up numbers nearly as bad as Bruntlett's, and the splits I see say he's batting .317 post-break. But he's always been a decent enough hitter.

[J. Weitzel]

Tray: I think Chacin could be a late-season possibility in light of Romero's setback.

[J. Weitzel]

Pablo Ozuna released, according to Scott Lauber.

[ST]

first of all, it's cole hamels. he doesn't conceal injuries. if anything close to unusual bothers him, he doesn't pitch. resting him isn't going to help him. his problem is location. he's throwing in the low 90's most of the game

[ST]

also, I still think Romero is going to come back this year. just not now. to say it's a good guess he won't help this season because of forearm stiffness is really going out on a limb

[hiki]

I don't know if 269 inning last season are relevant and I don't think you do either; if you did you'd be like every one else here and bring in stats to prove your point. Has every pitcher who has thrown 269 innings the previous season and failed to achieve fans expectations been accused at some point in the season of hiding an injury?

He hasn't had a very long career to be start judging how he's going to perform every single season. I believe that's why they make players play instead of relying on their stats to decide games.

[J.R. King]

The Phils need to put some distance between themselves and the Fish/Braves. Charlie needs some meaningless games to give Utley/Howard/Hamels rest and to experiment with bullpen options. It wouldn't be a bad idea to give Madson a few days off, as well.

If Romero is not in the mix, they have four locks for 7 bullpen spots (Lidge, Madson, Eyre, and Park). That leaves Brett Myers, Clay Condrey, Chad Durbin, Jamie Moyer, Pedro
Martinez, Rodrigo Lopez, Kyle Kendrick, Gustavo Chacin, Antonio Bastardo, and Tyler Walker all competing for the remaining 4 spots.

It'd be nice to give Charlie some time to experiment.

[JBird]

I understand the hesitancy to give Utley a day off b/c you have to play Bruntlett, But is there a reason Dobbs can't spell Howard a game or two.

[J. Weitzel]

Sorry for uttering the letters "DL" in the same sentence as Cole "Personal Chiropractor" Hamels. My bad.

You guys are making more out of my post than it's worth, but the point about workload is a valid one.

[mikes77phillies]

"is there a reason that Dobbs can't spell Howard for a game or 2"

Check Greg Dobbs career OPS against Left handers and then ask that question.

No need to rest Howard against RH pitching.

[denny b.]

Brett Myers and Scott Mathieson may play very important roles with this team in September and October.

Losing Juan Carlos would suck. When right, he is nasty and tough to hit; no matter lefty or righty. He was a big part of the playoff success in 2009. Eyre isn't in his league.

[Tray]

"his problem is location. he's throwing in the low 90's most of the game"

Do we know that injuries can't harm location? I can't at all see why that would be the case.

[ST]

once again, if he is hurt in the slightest way, he'll pull himself out of a game and won't pitch. that's what he does. and he wouldn't be throwing 92-93 mph if he had arm trouble. and he still isn't walking anyone. that's also a sign of arm trouble if he starts walking people

[limoguy]

Watching Sox vs Yanks on Fox and Youklis is brutal playing out of position in left field.

McCarver says wryly that it's a safe bet this will be his last start in left this year.

Ya think?

[limoguy]

***You guys are making more out of my post than it's worth***

Can we help it that we hang on your every word, JW? ;-)

[JBird]

Mikes77: then who would you propose playing 1st when Howard needs a night off? Bruntlett? Eventually Howard needs a day off, right? This year, Dobbs is hitting .400 against lefties. . . . in 5 at bats. But really, according to ESPN, he's only had 38 at bats against southpaws in the last 3 years. I don't think you can really say that he can't hit lefties. He spent his "peak" years only facing righties. there's a recent article on the subject too: (http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?
ymd=20090723&content_id=6016936&vkey=
news_phi&fext=.jsp&c_id=phi&partnerId=
rss_phi.) Even if Dobbs can't hit lefties, it's not like Howard is hitting them either.

[JBird]

Mikes77: I don't think the point of a bench player is to outperform the starters.

[joe l]

limo - McCarver is also an ass for repeating that CC has been pitching a no hitter every inning. Then explains about how he has nothing to do with it. Way to suck the fun out of the game, Tom.

[joe l]

s/Tom/Tim/g

[limoguy]

joe - not something Harry Kalas would have wasted his time talking about, is it?

Maybe these guys should use the motte WWHD (What would Harry do?).

[NEPP]

I wouldn't be surprised to see hamels go on the 15 day DL if for no other reason than to keep him fresh.

And his velocity IS down from last year.

Check out his velocity ranges from last year and this year:

http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=4972&position=P&pitch=FA

When he reaches back, it just isn't there like it was last year. Its not a huge difference but he's just slightly off and has been all year.

[justphatastc]

is majewski an option in the bp?

[TNA]

The question is, do you use the cushion of the lead in the NL East to allow Hamels and Moyer to enhance their feel of their off-speed pitches in MLB games, or do you send them somewhere else to 1) rest; 2) develop consistent feel of their pitches a la Lidge when he went on the DL in the beginning of 2008; and 3) give Pedro/Lopez/Kendrick (who does look a bit better although the stats don't necessarily support it) a chance to start some games.

Someone said that Hamels would take himself out of the rotation if he was hurt. Well tiredness/fatigue isn't a pain-inducing "injury," which Hamels is (in)famous for being extra-cautious about. However, fatigue does lead to less refined mechanics and inevitably changes the feel on your pitches. Moreover, Hamels has previously stated that one of his goals is to never miss a start.

That said, it's getting late into the season. If the Phillies are thinking of giving Hamels a break and "resetting" him, the sooner the better.

sidenote: I like the idea of Chacin and his Terminator look coming in for the phillies in relief (if JC can't get it together).

[Brian G's pea-sized brain]

clout: If Padilla has enough value that we should have gotten more than a Rodriguez type project for him, then why did the Rangers just give him away for nothing? His performance is right on line with the stat line you celebrated, so he's not regressing. Why didn't Daniels try and get even a marginal prospect in return? Is it possible that Gillick and the league's other GMs realized sooner than Daniels that a #4/5 starter isn't worth as much when no one on his team wants to play behind him or with him?

[tg082]

Wait, didn't I already see this?

[NEPP]

Off to a good start.

[drake]

awesome.

[NEPP]

Padilla sucked and he was a cancer in the clubhouse...just like he was in Texas.

[TNA]

no doubt phillies will score at least 10 runs this game...

[Brian G]

BIG MAN!!!

[tg082]

What a good play by Howard. I guess I will have to be a little less hard on him tonight when he proceeds to strike out 11 times.

[drake]

nice recovery cole, just keep the ball in the yard the rest of the game please!

[NEPP]

Hamels on pace for a solid 6 innings...if we're lucky. 21 pitches in the 1st.

[drake]

obviously ryan howard is a defensive specialist. we don't have him in the lineup for his bat.

[tg082]

Jimmy!

[redbeard]

utoh, jimmy looks like he limping

[drake]

great, let's get ready for 2 weeks of the gnome.

[NEPP]

Well, we can just use our versatile backup infielder then.

[aksmith]

Chase slumping for weeks now.

Jimmy limping.

I wonder if the gnome can play both positions and bat twice in the lineup. Sounds like the perfect solution.

[drake]

ryan howard can play shortstop, right?

[tg082]

It's unfortunate that Howard didn't do that 22 hours ago.

[tg082]

Egh, well, Werth made up for Howard's mistake of actually putting the damn ball in play.

[Brian G]

Really nice play there by Feilz.

[Mick O]

Many BL'ers actually prefer Howard getting that hit rather than one 22 hours ago. They see RBI as an overrated stat that doesn't help win games. This way, he improves his ancillary stats which make him a better all-around player without the gaudy RBI. They prefer a higher BA with fewer RBI -- or else they say he's performing poorly.

So, well done Ryno!

[NEPP]

Maybe Cole settles down and goes 7 or 8 innings tonight.

[PhxPhilly]

Romero should be back for September and playoffs. Now is the time to rest him while we figure out the marginal pitchers until rosters expand.
Can Belliard play SS? If not, there is no point in getting him.
To rest Howard, Ibanez goes to 1B and Francisco starts in LF. (Could put Stairs at 1B, since he is better than Dobbs against lefties.) Francisco seems like a great pickup. Can play CF, run some, hit homers, just strikes out too much.

[drake]

everybody agrees that hits with runners in scoring position are better than hits without, what I (and many others) think is that since RBI is dependent on the people ahead of a hitter are playing, it's not a very useful stat in describing how good a player is.

[PhillyBlunt]

Who can ever forget Morandini's unassisted triple play? Wow. Bonds, Bonilla and some other schmuck on the pirates.

[Lisa]

I hate the amount of guests they have on the braodcast this year. It's just detracts from the game experience. It also contrived conversation that is painful to listen to.

[tg082]

Can someone tell me who's in the TV booth, in the now nightly "let's show less field action and more of McCarthy's ugly head" segment?

[NEPP]

Can we please score some damn runs here with the bases loaded.

[Connie Mack]

hello, who can predict what the rotation will be come sept 1st?

[NEPP]

That'll work. Better than nothing.

[tg082]

Why wasn't Cole safe there? Isn't the rule that you have to make the transition to your throwing hand? It didn't look like he did that.

Still, great job by Cole, first busting it up the line to first and then into second.

[NEPP]

Vic!

[Connie Mack]

nice

[Brian G]

tg: That's not the rule.

[tg082]

Oh.

[NEPP]

Well, we scored 2 runs by manufacturing them...I'll take it.

[NEPP]

Victorino's hitting .356 against LHP this year...wow.

Who ever would have thought he'd turn out this good?

[TNA]

Vic eats tall fastball-slider lefties for lunch.

[Brian G]

Coghlan got a little bit of chase utley look to him.

[tg082]

The obvious move is to bring in Tyler Walker here.

[Mal]

Cole's fastball according to gameday is at 94. When's the last time he threw that hard?

[tg082]

Mal: LA just said essentially the same thing.

[clout]

Brian G: Not sure I understand your post. Are you saying that Padilla today is identical to Padilla of 4 years ago?

Let me repeat: Here's what the Rangers got in exchange for Ricardo Rodriguez:

600 IP, 43-34, 4.89 ERA in a hitter's park. In other words, an OK #4-5 starter for 3 1/2 seasons.

Here is what the Phillies got in exchange for Vicente Padilla, a man they acquired for Curt Schilling:

Zero.

And yes, only a tiny pea brain could conclude that the Phillies got the best of that trade.

[TNA]

could it be Cole overthrowing?

[aksmith]

He hit 94 a couple of times in San Fran. His velocity has been creeping up the last few outings. And the opposition seems to have noticed something that lets them lay off of the change. I can't see anything. But it sure looks like Cole may be tipping his change.

And for what it's worth, his results have been poor, but his curveball has improved greatly.

[clout]

Mick O: Howard's RBIs are a meaningless stat. He can best be measured by how he hits vs. LHP. Ask Jack.

[Mal]

Maybe he learned something from Mad-Dog?

[TNA]

The combination of Hamels hitting 94 without good command is worrying. Here's my worrywart hypothesis: Fatigue --> Bad mechanics --> Overthrowing --> Injury

[MPN]

Gene Garber??? Damn, there is a name from the past... almost Snake Pliskin-like...

[clout]

Tray's point about injury affecting location is correct. Of course, there are lots of other things that affect location, mostly mechanics, and there's no evidence that Hamels is injured.

[TNA]

Didn't Manuel praise Werth's ability to hit opposite field last year when the situation calls for such hits? Seems like Werth's been pulling the ball a great deal more, or at least not hitting oppo nearly as much this year.

[Brian G]

clout: Since that trade, the Phillies have made the playoffs twice on the strength of mentally and emotionally owning the Mets. They also won the WS. I know you think it's impossible for a team to be successful while not getting what you perceive as winning every trade, but I have no regrets that Gillick gave that POS Padilla away. Sometimes you make the decision that a guy has to go, whether you can get equal statistical value back or not.

[tg082]

Wow! I had a feeling something didn't look right about the way Johnson was trying to follow that ball, but I figured his gold glove would still have allowed him to make the play. What a break for the Phils.

[RSB]

Sorry, I just can't take the Marlins seriously. I don't know anyone can.

[tg082]

Give me a break, Nart! Go back to mall copping.

[TNA]

manufactured a run off of no hits. nice.

[Mick O]

Nick J, going for the one-handed catch...

[clout]

Brian G: What happened to the Phillies in 2008 is irrelevant. It was not caused by trading Padilla. Please compare what Padilla did after the deal and what Jon Lieber, who replaced him, did. You could make a case that the Phils would've made the playoffs in 2006 had they not dealt Padilla and Abreu.

But the point is whether the Phils got good value in the trade. They didn't, by any logical measure.

[TNA]

C'mon Phils. This is the inning to wield your big sticks.

[clout]

What's odd is that Johnson was a pretty good defensive firstbaseman with the Nats & Expos. There must be something about the Marlins bad defense that is contagious.

[tg082]

Yankees, too.

[clout]

Most bizarre stat I heard from the booth tonight is that Rollins leads the team in HRs since the All-Star break.

[TNA]

clout- it's a bit weird, but the phillies consistently hit about 7 HR's every week regardless of the source.

[Lisa]

Kaat hasn't aged a day since he retired. He looked like a geezer then too.

[tg082]

Whoever made the comment about Werth's inability to go to the opposite side, please say it again.

[TNA]

Hitting behind the runner and hitting situationally was supposedly one of Werth's strengths. Maybe he's gotten used to/systematically changed his swing to pulling the ball more now that he's lower in the order. Shame really.

[tg082]

Whoa, that Kaat dude is 70? I hope I'm in his shape when I'm like 50.