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« Beerleaguer for breakfast: Hoover will be added today | Main | Breaking news: Brett Myers to be activated tomorrow »

Thursday, September 03, 2009

Comments

Its this level of minute detail that makes BL such a great site.

So that ends the great Joe Naughton experiment. THough he likely clears waivers.

"My hope was that the joke would be so unfunny that it was funny -- kind of like in "Airplane!" But I guess it was just unfunny. I blame my failed attempt at humor on Eric Bruntlett."

Actually BAP I loved it. But blaming your failures on Eric Bruntlett...that is an inspired piece of bitterness on your part. My hat is off to you sir.

In fact I think BAP may have hit on something. Maybe we can blame lots of stuff on the gnome. When I get a bad birthday gift for my girlfriend. The Gnome's fault. Economy sucks? Gnome. Wow. This could make life a lot easier. I like it BAP. I like it!

NO NOT STEVE REGISTER!!!!! His mother will be so sad.

Magic number: 24. Hubris maybe but not when the Phils' competition is the Fish and the Braves.

On June 1st:

Stairs: .281 .465 .594 1.059
Coste: .254 .356 .460 .816


BAP: "My problem is that the Phillies don't seem to value offense at ANY bench positions."


I wonder if bap would have made the same comment at that time?

Stairs has been in a monumental slump, and Dobbs just never came around. The Gnome has been useless at the plate all season, and really since the middle of last season (he hit 179 .264 .256 .521 the last three months), and they traded away Coste, but you would only have been half right two months ago.

Unemployed?.....blame the Gnome.
Wife left you?.....blame the Gnome.
Reposessed your car?.....blame the Gnome.
Daughter got knocked up?.....blame the Gnome.
Defaulted on mortgage?.....blame the Gnome.
Cat or dog got pregnant?.....blame the Gnome.
Eathquake in Oklahoma?.....blame the Gnome.


donc, I like it too!!!

Interesting quote from Charlie Manual on bringing up someone with speed from the minors: "There's one guy that we've got in mind, but we don't know exactly if we want to bring him right now because he's kind of young."

Sounds like they're leaning toward Lakewood's Anthony Gose, who is 19, rather than Reading's Quintin Berry, who is 24.

I should give credit to Scott Lauber of the Wilmington News Journal for giving us that quote from Charlie. Other beat writers mentioned it, but didn't include the quote.

damn, it's like Gallipoli all over again

Those who imply (J.R. King) that Ibanez can't possibly be repeating a career pattern cold streak, that an jury must be causing his slump, are as dumb as those who thought he was going to hit .330 all year with 50 homers.

John Smoltz is crap in Boston, goes to NL and is untouchable. Brad Penny is crap in Boston, goes to NL and is untouchable.

Is the answer:
A. The Red Sox don't know how to handle veteran pitchers.
or
B. The NL sucks really bad compared to the AL.

awh: I don't blame the Phillies for failing to foresee Stairs' demise, and I don't even blame them for leaving well enough alone & hoping he's just in a bad slump. I don't even blame them for choosing the offensively inept Paul Bako over Chris Coste. I do blame them for making a conscious decision to go into the 2009 season, and now the 2009 playoffs, with 2 utility infielders who provide "versatility" but are absolutely hopeless at the plate. I also blame them for sticking with the unspeakably bad Eric Bruntlett throughout the season, when there have been counltess better options out there. And, while I don't blame them for sticking with Stairs, I do think that his dramatic downward spiral should only have increased the Phillies' urgency to upgrade other areas of the bench. You've only got 6 bench spots. You can't reserve 3 or 4 of them for players who are offensively atrocious.

When did you become such a big apologist for management?

Here's a question, maybe somebody here knows the answer to it:

If the Phillies win the World Series, does Steve Register get a ring?

Similarly, did people like Harman, Bohn, Tracy, Snelling, Swindle, etc. get rings last year?

Bruntlett was an econ major at Stanford. Ergo, he may be able to be blamed for any economic difficulties.

Lee is a really good pitcher but outside of one outing has been absolutely dominant going from AL to NL. We'll see if someone like Contreras has similar success as Penny and Smoltz already have (though in few outings). Going back over the past year or so, you've seen similar success (to a degree) from guys like Blanton, Lilly, etc. Yes, the AL is better.

Solution: 2010 AL Champ wins World Series by default; 2010 NL Champ plays the Bricktown Showdown Champ.

Clout - B. The NL generally sucks compared to the AL especially the AL East.

When Smoltz faced the Nats as a Red Sox he got roughed up. When facing them as a Cardinal he dominated.

I don't think it's either A or B, clout. It's more likely that Smoltz put everything together in a new environment; plus there are the reports about him tipping pitches, adjusting his footwork, and now throwing caution to the wind in using his slider.

Also Penny is exactly the kind of pitcher the Phillies can't hit at all. The Phils weren't able to touch J. Johnson at all in two games this year. We'll see how they perform against other power pitchers Lincecum and Oswalt in the next few games.

Their inability to hit power pitchers is as much a concern going up against COL as facing SF in the playoffs. Jiminez and dela Rosa are both power pitchers (although one of them doesn't have quite the control the others named here have)

Can we somehow blame the Kennedy assassination on the Gnome?

Here is clout at 1:29 PM this afternoon:

"Those who imply (J.R. King) that Ibanez can't possibly be repeating a career pattern cold streak"

Here is me at 11:36 AM this morning:

"Andy: I hope your right that this is simply his annual cold streak ..."

I have a question for the statheads:

I was looking at Michael Bourn's stats this morning, and was wondering if anyone had ever tried to calculate the effect of SB on run production, the same way they do for SLG.

It seems to me, that with a player like Bourn, who doesn't hit for a lot of power, the effect of his SB don't really show up in his overall numbers.

For instance, the calculation for SLG is TB/AB (1B +2*2B+3*3B+4*HR/AB).

But with Bourn, who has 39 Net SB ("NSB") (49 SB - 10 CS), if one added the "net" SB to his "total bases", his SLG+NSB goes from .409 to .489.

That's a pretty big jump.

Is that a more fair way to evaluate a player's offensive contribution?

clout: I asked the same question last night. I think it's a little bit of both, considering how the Red Sox pitching has fared this year, but heavily leaning into column B.

Oh, and Wes Helms was the hero for the Fish last night. Ha, ha.

TNA - The Phils have hit De La Rosa well a couple of times the past 2 years including the epic 20-run pasting they put on the Rockies last Memorial Day at CBP.

Giants' starting staff and AT&T ballpark is one matchup I don't want to see the Phils face but the Rockies' rotation isn't one to be fearful of.

Clout: This is an exact copy of a text message that I sent a buddy of mine who was born in Boston and is a Red Sox fanatic last night in the third inning. "I'm watching Brad Penny mowe down the Phillies with a 96 mph fastball. First Schmoltz, now Penny. Who is the Sawx pitching coach? Pee Wee Herman?

Some comments roster minutiae...

Interesting quote from Charlie Manuel on bringing up someone with speed from the minors: "There's one guy that we've got in mind, but we don't know exactly if we want to bring him right now because he's kind of young."

That's certainly an interesting quote, and Gose could very well be the guy in mind. The problem with calling him up now though is that he'd have to go on the 40 man, and he would only have 3 option years left. He'll need to move one year at a time, and so 3 options years just isn't enough. There may be an exception for him to get a 4th option year, but with all the ramifications, I can't see them calling him up.

My other roster minutiae point... why DFA Harman, Register and Naughton before Joe Bisenius?

clout, I tend to the the answer is a combination of both A and B.

The reports on Matheison were pretty interesting- anyone know what his deal is? I imagine that we will have to wait until Spring Training next year to see him in a Phils uniform.

I would be shocked if it was Gose. Besides the point Friar just made (good point Friar), he's just too young to be in that atmosphere. You don't bring a kid that age along for the ride. It's not bring your child to school day. Berry is at least 24 and not a threat to anyone. And he's got plenty of speed.

@ awh:

I haven't seen that done before, but I know that stolen bases are calculated into BP's EqA. The other way to see the impact of the stolen bases is to look at Bourn's "secondary average" (SecA), which is basically all the extra bases a player gets from extra base hits, walks, and net stolen bases divided by at bats. Bourn's is .308 for this year, which is pretty good.

bap, moi....MOI and apologist for management?

DO I really need to go to the archives and C&P some quotes of myself?

Look, no team is perfect and certainly no FO is.

I suspect that the lack of activity you describe also has something to do with Charlie and Milt getting some input as well, and perhaps thinking that Stairs and Dobbs will eventually come around. Also, Francicso is not a lost cause from the RH side of the plate.

Bruntlett is another matter.

If the Phillies carry 12 pitchers on the playoff roster, tha will leave 5 on the bench.

My guess:

Stairs
Dobbs
Francisco
Bako
Gnome

BTW, the 12 pitchers they coose to carry will probably have a much greater impact on whether they have another successful postseason than who is on the bench.

"Can we somehow blame the Kennedy assassination on the Gnome?"

Don't laugh. Half the people here probably do.

The Gnome is responsible for the extinction of Dinosaurs.

@ awh:

But we can always hope the Phillies are smart, and only carry 11 pitchers on the postseason roster, right?

I suspect the pitching staff, ass-u-ming all are healthy, for the playoffs will be:

Lee
Hamels
Blanton
Happ/Pedro

Lidge
Madson
Myers
Park
Romero
Eyre
Happ/Pedro
Moyer/Condrey/Durbin

Left out will be Walker and Taschner, and one of the bottom three listed.

If Romero is healthy and the 2nd LHP out of the pen, does Moyer get left off the playoff roster?

awh: I'm well aware of your history as BL's single biggest critic of Phillies management. That's why I asked the question.

The bench may or may not have a critical impact on the Phillies' post-season success. But the point is, it could. Amaro, and many of the posters on this board, seem to believe that, because the bench was unimportant in last year's playoffs, it necessarily follows that it will be unimportant in this year's playoffs. That's some very faulty reasoning.

The problem with adding stolen bases to slugging is that they don't advance runners. Its why a single is marginally better than a walk. As such a single+sb do not equal a double. Also getting caught stealing isn't worth one less base because it creates an out. So you have to be careful with adding and subtract bases without context.

Friar, who would be the 6th bench player?

Would it be anyone who is any good?

phil, a single does advance a runner if he is on 1B.

But your point is well taken.

even Adam Eaton pitched a good game once in a while. I'm going to wait and see at the end of the season how Smoltz and Penny do before I go on and on about how dominate they are over the NL after 1 start.

awh: Check out the EQA stat from Baseball Prospectus. It counts baserunning, and creates an overall offensive metric. It's scaled to be like Batting Average, so that .260 is average, .300 and above very good, and .230 or below awful. For some perspective, here's some EQA's on the Phillies:

Utley: .332
Howard: .307
Werth: .304
Ibanez: .299
Victorino: .290
Ruiz: .260
Feliz: .248
Rollins: .246

Bruntlett: .162

@ awh:

If Amaro had made a move before the waiver deadline, it could have been. Alas, I digress...

No, but seriously, I say that more because carrying more than 7 relief pitchers in a playoff series -- with so many days off -- is complete overkill. Even if bumping Moyer/Durbin only frees up room for Mayberry, it at least gives you a pinch runner, another outfielder who can (nominally) play all three positions, and a pinch hitter who's better against lefties than Bruntlett is.

Alternatively, you could free up a 40-man spot by DFA'ing Bisenius, and use John Ennis' DL exception to call up someone like Quintin Berry. Or even Michael Taylor, if only he were healthy right now.

"I'm going to wait and see at the end of the season how Smoltz and Penny do before I go on and on about how dominate they are over the NL after 1 start. "

I dont have a great memory, but didnt Smoltz and Penny already dominate (maybe too strong a word) over the NL in their careers?

Clout: Regarding Penny and Smoltz, I would think it's a combo of the NL being significantly below the AL (and AL East especially), and those pitchers simply having a few bad games up there. It's not like there was a huge sample they were judged on. Both Penny and Smoltz pitched somewhat better than their results indicated; had they stayed in Boston, they probably would've seen somewhat of an improvement anyway, although that was certainly strongly boosted by the move to the weaker NL.

Boston got some good years out of Schilling as an old pitcher and obviously Wakefield has been successful there too, though he's a unique case. I'm not sure I'd draw any conclusion, except to say that working with old pitchers will naturally have more failures than successes, because pitchers just get worse when they get older.

awh: How was Romero pitching before his injury?

I'll be very shocked if he makes the playoff roster.

It's painfully obvious that Dustin Pedroia disliked both Penny and Smoltz so he tipped their pitches with regularity to watch them get shelled.

-- if one added the "net" SB to his "total bases",

One big reason that this doesn't work is that XBH advance other runners where SB do not.

-- wondering if anyone had ever tried to calculate the effect of SB on run production

There are many different metrics that try to give overall offensive values (the aforementioned EqA) or overall offense and defense values (Win Shares).

Go to wikipedia and look for sabermetrics and go from there. You can read until your eyes water or ears bleed, whichever comes first.

Smoltz and Penny had to go when the Sox got a chance to get Paul Byrd.

JW and Friar: I agree with you that Berry is much more likely to be called up than Gose. (Another reason is that, according to Phuturephillies, this year Berry has to be added to the 40-man or else he is eligible for the Rule 5 draft.)

My point is that Charlie (shockingly) must be thinking about Gose. I doubt he would refer to Berry as too you. He's the same age as Antonio Bastardo and he was in the starting rotation.

No way Cholly would trust a 19 year old to play for him. He won't even trust a 25 year old unless he's given no other option.

Gose would be an absolute shocker. His hitting tool is still so raw.

Rule of thumb: If there's a baseball statistic you can imagine, it's been invented.

"We've been trying to get him to from 100 to about 105, 110 pitches," Phillies manager Charlie Manuel said. "He was getting there, and the two rainouts set him back a little bit. But I look at Pedro and I think he can definitely be a six-inning guy. I definitely think that. I think he's still got a lot of pitchability left."

PITCHABILITY?

SERIOUSLY?

GOTTA LOVE CHARLIE AND HIS MADE UP WORDS.

I did hear Cholly say "Extry" on his show. Gotta love that.

Here's a crazy thought:

Is the young guy with speed they're talking about calling up Domonic Brown?

I's say there's less than 0% chance of it, but who knows?

The Phillies are not going to use an option & start the arbitration clock on their best prospect or on a 19-year old who is at least 3 years away from the majors, if he ever gets there. Anyone who suggests otherwise is simply over-thinking this one.

It's either going to be Quintin Berry or Jason Ellison. Berry is a fringe prospect, whose speed, age (24), and ability to hit for reasonable average & draw walks give him an outside shot at being a future 5th outfielder. Ellison is a journeyman, who stinks but can run a little, play good defense, and is probably no worse a hitter than at least half the guys on the Phillies' bench. Given the Phillies' strong preference for experience, I'd put my money on Ellison.

AWH: So there is a -10% chance of them calling up Domonic Brown?

TTI: Does that mean there is a 10% chance of him getting demoted??? @_@

AWH - so your saying there's a chance ....

Berry, at 24, is young by Charlie's standards.

The mystery speedster is probaby 99.99% Berry and it's 0.01% chance it's Domonic Brown and 0% chance it's Gose.

clout, we differ in opinion.

If Romero is back by mid-September, and looks like he can get guys out...

I'd be shocked if he wasn't on the playoff roster.

awh: Key words in your post "and looks like he can get guys out."

How did he look before he got hurt?

clout - If Romero is healthy and isn't completely terrible, he will be on the postseason roster. They definitely could use another lefty in the pen and that isn't Moyer or Taschner.

clout, don't be disingenuous.

It was implicit in my post that the pitchers selected for the PS roster would be effective.

Did you really think that I thought that Romero would be selected if he was ineffective?

JW, does the blond in the advertisement come with the package if I place a bet through the link you've provided?

The comments to this entry are closed.

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