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Tuesday, December 15, 2009

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Your headline says it all, Jason. If

(Whoops. Continuing, then...)

If Stark is to be believed, the Phillies somehow found a way to include two Top 25 prospects in all of baseball in a swap of equal pitchers. No small feat.

I'm still praying Rosenthal's report from earlier -- that the Phillies would "only" kick in Taylor, and that the M's prospects would be headed for Toronto instead of Philadelphia -- is the right one.

why wouldn't the Phillies just let the Blue Jays keep their money and keep one of the prospects?

If a beat writer actually asks Rube why they didn't non-tender Blanton and keep Lee, I'd kiss them on the mouth. As of right now, I see no logic behind that at all.

The $6 mil is coming from Toronto, not Seattle. And Blanton won't make THAT much less than Lee. Insane.

If this is what the deal(s) turn out to be, this has ownership's fingerprints written all over it. Because I find it hard to believe that Ruben is THIS stupid.

Oh by the way, after all this, now imagine Cliff Lee signs with the Mets in 2011...

This CANT be right. Lee for two low-level prospects? It doesn't make any sense. Just keep him for a year and draft our own.

Rosenthal just twitted

#Phils getting $6M from #Jays in Halladay deal. Drabek, Taylor, likely D'Arnaud to TOR, Aumont, Gillies and 3rd player to PHI...

if Morrow is the 3rd guy i like it if not i don't

Myno: I suspect the answer to your question is that Amaro had a midnight Sunday deadline for tendering Blanton. He did not yet know that the Phillies were going to acquire Halladay or how the particulars were going to unfold.

Don't know much about propects, and I don't know how this deal will go down, but I know this:

We don't know all the details yet, and if, indeed, the haul for Lee is only those two prospects from Seattle, I'll take the more knowledgeable posters word for it that Rube didn't get fair value for Lee.

Again, because of all the conflicting reports, we know nothing definitive at this time.

Did we specifically ask the Mariners for two guys who are terrible prospects? Then we never have to worry about signing them long-term!

I've never been this confused about anything regarding baseball. And that includes trying to comprehend a Cholly press conference.

I'm not forming an opinion until there are less than 12 possible scenarios circulating the media.

I do, however, know this:

If they do, indeed, trade a full season of Lee for only the two prospects mentioned, then Bill Giles and Dave Montgomery and the rest of ownership should be ashamed of themselves.

I may have to break out the knicknames again.

Here's a thought:

The Phillies were reportedly one of the teams interested in Aroldis Chapman.

Are they looking to free up the funds to sign him?

There almost HAS to be a 3rd player coming from Seattle.

Aumont and Gillies (the French Connection?) are obviously nice prospects, but for a pitcher the caliber of Lee, and considering the Phils gave up 4 of their top 10 prospects to Cleveland for 3 months of service in July, I would need to see another really nice piece coming to Philly to justify the trade with the M's.

I guess in the end, Dom Brown is the only truly "untouchable" piece in the Phils system.

Although, hearing Kurkjian say tonight that a scout told him recently that Taylor "was the most talented prospect he saw this year" is a bit scary.

As for the Phils, they do seem to be collecting young power-armed reliever-types. Mathieson, Aumont, Schwimmer, Rosenberg and Bastardo come to mind in this regard. Seems to me, that now most of their starting-type pitching prospects are all now in the low minors (guys like Cosart and May).

Obviously there has been a lot of talk about the depth in the Phils system from top-to-bottom. We will now all get to see if that talk is for real. Because a good chunk of that top-end depth has now been dealt in the past few months.

Unless this third prospect/piece is something special, this just doesn't add up. If the goal is to free up 9 million dollars, then simply trade Blanton to any team willing to pay his salary - a salary he'll likely earn, btw, by doing what he always does: pitch a decent amount of innings with league average numbers. Use that 8-9 million saved to pay Lee - but don't trade him for 2 middling prospects.

Granted, I love the idea of the Phils getting Halladay on a 3-4 year extension, but otherwise this is looking beyond crazy. How is Lee plus 3 or our 4 best prospects equal to Halladay and 2-3 major question marks?

Rube, you've been doing a pretty decent job; please don't eff this up.

"I've never been this confused about anything regarding baseball. And that includes trying to comprehend a Cholly press conference."


Ahh, this is the beauty now of "Twitter" and various websites. Everybody thinks they are an "expert" and everybody from Stark to Rosenthal to Gammons to Mitch to Tony Bruno to the guys at WIP to some posters here, are all trying to out-do others with information. Some of it turns out to be true and a lot of it turns out to be false. But it ALL gets argued and debated about at blogs like these, before we actually know the REAL story.

As for Cholly's press conferences, you just have to be able to understand basic West Virginia-speak. And just "play good and pitch good".

For all the talk about the inflated California League stats, that predominantly applies to homeruns, not batting average. Last year, there were only 13 players in the league who hit over .300. Gillies' .341 average was third in the league, just .04 behind the leader. The year before that, he finished 5th in the league in hitting.

The scouts don't seem to know what to make of this guy. The scouting report from the last thread pegged his donwisde as Dave Roberts & his upside as Juan Pierre with patience (and a strong throwing arm). The leap from A to AA is probably the largest in pro baseball, so we'll know a lot more after we see how he does next season.

The fact is, if he were Juan Pierre with patience & a good throwing arm, he would be a star player.

how are we willing to give the same package (taylor or brown, drabek or happ, d'Arnaud) we balked at over the summer for halladay now? it doesn't make sense. and why just dump lee to save the money that could be saved by trading blanton? none of this makes sense.

if the mariners didn't need to be included to make this deal work, and only serve to dump lee's salary, i'm going to be kind of annoyed.

In my effort to make any sense of this, there is this: if the Phils are basically making two separate trades here - Taylor, D'Arnaud, Drabek for Halladay and then Lee for two sacks of baseballs - then you can bet that Amaro will wake up to about 20 messages on his answering machine tomorrow morning. I'm sure you can coax a better deal out of any number of teams for Lee, with the Angles, Rockies, Yankees, Brewers, and even Mets coming to mind. Maybe Amaro is simply trying to drum up offers by spreading speculation about a obviously lopsided trade?

It also occurred to me that maybe Amaro is trying to wash his dirties in public. By threatening to salary dump Lee, he's trying to motivate ownership to give him more money to pay for Lee and Halladay, at least for a year. I find it hard to believe a team that is strongly on the rise and has ticket and merchandise sales through the roof can't find $9 million to keep Lee around

It's also possible that there is another strong piece coming towards the Phils, and based on what they are giving to the Jays, I'm hoping it's a decent reliever from their org. But even then, the Phils cannot give up Lee for basically two so-so prospects.

Sickening. There were only two way rational ways to go:

Seize the small window for a team with a group of core players who are reaching their 30s and/or free agency. you do this by keeping Lee and Halladay, and sucking up the extra payroll.

You stay a world series contender while protecting your future. You do this by keeping the best prospects in the most talented farm system you've had in 20 years.


OR....this could all be part of a very elaborate dog and pony show to reassert dominance in the Philly market...the day after an entertaining Eagles win that puts them in 1st place and the same day the Sixers win their first game with AI. The timing has been impeccable. Of course, if RAJ screws the pooch and the Phillies end up with anything less than Halladay, Morrow, and two decent prospects, it could be all for naught.

One of the things I'm having a hard time with is that the Phils have zero flexibility in their payroll. How can a team that has been to three straight postseasons, has over 100% attendance, and merchandise sales through the roof need to include Drabek in this trade just so they can get an extra $6 million? Like, can we start a fundraiser to help them pay Lee's salary so we can keep him and Drabek?

Here's a thought: what if the Phils threw in Happ instead of Drabek? Would take serious stones on Amaro's part, but long-term, it's probably the smart move.

MLBtraderumors has the third M's player as being Juan Ramirez. Any good? My guess at this point is "not very." I seem to remember him as having a poor ERA in the minors. And alas, all the Morrow speculation is just that if this is true.

I feel sick.

for what it's worth -- mlbtraderumors now says we will get a juan ramirez as the 3rd piece from the M's. Doing a quick search on ramirez, keith law likes him apparently:

"Mariners' Ramirez has No. 2 starter potential

Juan Ramirez (also known as J.C. Ramirez) is one of the Mariners' top pitching prospects and a sort of white whale for me; I chased him for a good part of spring training last year but never saw him, and finally nabbed him Friday after three-plus weeks in Arizona this year.

The 20-year-old right-hander is impressive, with No. 2 starter stuff if he can hold up in the rotation and end-of-game stuff if he ends up in the bullpen. His fastball was 91-96 mph, sitting 93-94 for three innings and then sliding to 91-93 in the fourth, which isn't unusual for this time of year since he hadn't gone past three innings in any prior outing. Most of his fastballs had good glove-side run, although he threw one at 91 with tailing life (probably a two-seamer). He threw only fastballs in the first inning and gave up a few hits as a result, but in the second he started mixing in an above-average slider at 77-80 with a very sharp break. He doesn't have great feel for it but did use it at least twice against lefties to attack the outside corner. He showed a change that was mostly straight but used the slider in almost every changeup count."

What is the significance of the commissioner granting a 3-day window to complete the trade? Is some deadline being waived?
This seems to be a significant piece of news; but I'm too ignorant to know what it means.

Phillies Red:
(1) merchandise sales is part of MLB revenue sharing - doesn't go straight into Phillies budget.

(2) the phillies have raised the budget DRASTICALLY over the past 5 years. and the unfortunate thing is that they really haven't really added anything new -- the've gone to increases in salary for star players like howard and utley.

(3) unless they raise ticket prices around 30% from last year, they probably won't be able to manage a $140M+ payroll. and that's assuming attendance would stay the same, which it would probably not with such high ticket prices even if the Phillies continue to win.

(4) you can't eat your cake and have it too.

He's the 5th rated prospect in the Mariners' system, which tells you more about the Mariners' system than about Juan Ramirez. He's not too exciting, but I guess he has pretty good stuff.

If you look at the Lee transactions separate & apart from the Halladay transaction, we essentially traded Donald, Marson, Carrasco & Knapp for Aumont, Gillies & Ramirez, & 3 months of Cliff Lee. On the prospect component of that trade, we won't know for 4 or 5 years who got the better of the exchange. On paper, I'd say we gave up slightly more than we got back but not by a huge amount. Of course, the 3 months of Cliff Lee resulted in a World Series appearance which almost certainly wouldn't have happened without him.

He's got lousy numbers. Didn't see any peripherals. And if Keith Law likes him, I haven't found that to be a good barometer. If he told me it was night, I'd definitely carry my sunglasses.

TNA: fair comments, and I hear you on them. Still, my point is more about flexibility than just going all out. I realize the Phils have limits, but deciding to include Drabek to get $6M from Toronto is penny wise and pound foolish.

A lot of these trade speculations suck royally for the Phillies if any of them turn out to be true. The Phillies should not be in a panic mode to pull a trade but should be dealing from strength. Toronto is the franchise that has an ace pitcher that's a free agent after one more year and doesn't want to resign with them. They should be in the weaker negotiating position. And if you're dumping salary, you dump Blanton and not Lee. Both are free agents after next season and the salaries for next year are not that far apart. You'll receive lower rated prospects for Blanton but if you manage to keep most of your current top prospects, you wouldn't need for any of them to come through in the next couple of years anyway.

There is no reason why the Phillies can't trade for Halladay and keep Lee. There doesn't have to be a salary dump, period. Between ticket sales and merchandising revenue, the Phillies have the bankroll to pay for all of these players, even if Lee has said that he's looking for Sabathia-type money after next year. In the meantime, the right move is for the Phillies' rotation next year to be Halladay, Lee, Hamels, Happ, and Blanton.

Why would anyone need prospect for Blanton? They should have just non-tendered him. I'm guessing this trade didn't just pop out of the blue.

Or just give him way for non-prospects. Can't trade him for equipment because that poor guy who got traded for some bats a few years back actually committed suicide. Wouldn't want Pancakes Blanton on my conscience.

philliesdude - you just about summed it up perfectly

I actually got to see Gillies a good bit playing for the High Desert Mavericks. Although its still A ball, I thought he was a stand out player in the Victorino mold. Blazing speed and decent plate recognition.

Funny but didn't Amaro balk at Riccardi's insistence on getting just a talent-laden return for Halladay just 5 months ago?

A large part of what made the Lee trade such a masterstroke was that Amaro got want he wanted (a frontline starter in Lee) without giving up any principal key pieces in return. He even got Francisco to fill a much need role as a 4th OF role/right-handed bat off the bench for at least 1 1/2.

Don't expect that Amaro will be able to duplicate that but he is essentially getting an ace for 2011 (that is really what this deal is all about) but giving up a fair amount in the process and not getting any other pieces that will likely help the Phils win a championship next season or in 2011.

I kind of feel like Lando today as this trade speculation came trickling across - "This deal is getting worse all the time."

Phils' really had to address two areas this offseason - the bullpen and the bench. People harped endlessly about 3B but the Phils had gotten to the World Series the past 2 years with one of the weaker offensive options at 3B and won the NL East in 2007 with one of the worst Phils' positional players in recent history manning 3B.

Amaro was quick to move to address the bench through a number of veteran FA signings. Still, he oddly hasn't been able to get anything done on the bullpen and even with a rotation headlined by Halladay and Hamels has only 1 legit bullpen option right now.

If watching this team the last 5 years or so has shown me anything, they have generally struggled the most when they had a shaky backend of the rotation (4-5 spots) and bullpen with only 1-2 solid options. Maybe the offense and starting pitching will be so good it will be able to overcome these but doesn't leave a lot of margin for error either.

Two questions:

1. Does this trade make the Phils more likely to get back to the World Series again next year?

I say no. Halladay is better than Lee but Phils are giving up two players in Taylor and Drabek who might have helped them in the 2nd half next year. Phils also don't get any other MLB-ready talent in the trade. Doesn't seem like any of the Mariners' prospects will be ready until at least later in 2011.

2. Does this trade better help the Phils to get back to make a deep postseason run in 2011?

Yes and it is really what the crux of this trade is about as nearly every move that Amaro had made since becoming GM last year was constructing a window of opportunity throw 2011 in which the Phils would be positioned to make a deep postseason run with this current core. All 2011, all bets are off as this roster will likely look substantially different in 2012 with potentially only Utley as a starter on this team.

The bullpen should be addressed internally and through trades. The premium on above average or even just average relievers in the FA market is significant; RAJ is more likely to more cost-effectively upgrade the BP by the trading deadline at the end of July. For example, look at a guy like Capps. He says that he'll only consider places where he'll be allowed to close. On the Phillies, he'd be the 7th inning guy. The only way the Phillies are going to get a closer-quality reliever into the 7th inning slot is by trading for him.

As for the Halladay rumors, at this point, we should all wait until the deal is announced. I just think it's hilarious so many different accounts of the deal are being reported in mainstream media outlets. It's as if RAJ is purposely leaking misinformation to various internal sources to identify where the leaks are and who the various writers use as information sources.

That said, if Lee really is traded because his agent said he was set on FA after next year, it should now be clear to all GMs, FAs, and agents if it wasn't before -- RAJ does not f around.

Rube's probably planning to turn right around and flip the prospects we're getting from the Mariners for relief help. With a lot of the better FA relief options either now off the table or beyond our financial reach, it's really the only logical course action left.

And yeah I know we're getting $6MM cash from the Jays, but that's just to help make up the difference between Doc and Lee's salaries.

I'm surprised there is so little talk about the proposed Halladay extension here, which seems to be the most important part of the deal from the Phillies perspective and for Armaro. They weren't going to be able to sign Lee past this year. They had an opportunity to get an elite pitcher, perhaps the best in baseball, and lock him in for at least four years without having to break $100 million or go a ridiculous amount of years. He also costs a reasonable $9 million this year with the $6 million we get from the Blue Jays. Budget is obviously a factor now, no matter how much we cry that they need to spend more money. This means that for the next three years we have Halladay and Hamels, who will rebound, anchoring the rotation. A lot of teams would take that. So in part 1 of the deal we basically got an elite, proven ace for roughly 4 years, without a ridiculous money or years commitment, for 3 highly regarded prospects. Not bad in my opinion.

Now to the unfortunate part 2, which was having to deal Lee, which is also the part I'm trying to grasp right now. If you needed a salary dump I don't see why it wasn't Blanton & Durbin, who combined will make what Lee does. Don't get me wrong, I like Blanton & Durbin, but it's a no contest if it's between them and Lee. This part needs a little explanation. Basically, now we have dealt four of our better prospects for one postseason run with Lee, a quality 4th outfielder in Francisco and some good/decent prospects from Seattle. We'll have to check back in 4-5 years to see how this turns out.

However, this still doesn't answer the question, why did Lee have to go when we could have just dumped Blanton & Durbin?

The bottom line is that this looks like a somewhat lateral movement for this year, but it gives us an excellent top of the rotation and a true ace for several years. This will be the deal that defines Armaro's reign here. It could easily blow up in his face or make him look like a genius and the verdict won't be in for a few years.

Chone Figgins to Philly?

I have been told the salarty extension for Doc is done. Also this. Lee called Amaro and aked him not to trade him. He'd like to pitch with Halladay.

Aumont is coming here. That's why Drabek is in the deal. I have been told we keep Happ. Been told Aumont is only 19.

Supposedly, we are in heavy on Rodney and Smoltz. And looking for another starer. They like Marquis.

My thoughts on the deal. When you couple everything together from July to now, we're giving up way too much for Halladay and not getting enough back. But at least you have Doc for 4-5 yrs. if he can stay healthy.

Amaro is dealing Lee now rather than wait. He knows he's gonna lose him to FA. I believe Lee will be signed by the Yanks to replace Petitte next year. Don't forget his buddy CC is a Yankee. CC got to him and said he should test the market. If you remeber they didn't even want to negotiate an extension with Cleveland, ergo the trade to the Phils.

Now, Amaro could've non-temdered Blanton and would had had the money for Lee but that's another story for another time.

Now if Marquis comes in rotation is Doc, Hamels, Blanton Marquis and Happ. Not bad and what to do about Moyer.

But remember I posted last week, it's always about the money with this team. And I agree, I'm sure the FO had their hands in this one. But like a previous poster said nothing's been announced yet. Maybe there are some other underlying factors we don't know of yet. I do believe however by including Drabeck we could have made the deal w/o trading Lee. I think maybe got inot panic mode when he was told Lee would give the Phils a discount on an extension.

Most times with players, money is the most important thing. With Lee, because he's never had the big payday, he's gotta test the market, no matter how much he says like likes Philly.

Len-
I agree that the major component of this trade is the below-market extension for Doc. The FO is never going to pay the big bucks to a FA pitcher. I don't necessarily disagree with that approach since it is rare that a FA pitcher lives up to his long term big $ deal.

I am concerned that the top guys in our farm system have been moved over the past 5 months, but I guess that's the price of doing business.

I think we all knew that at some point the budget would play a major role, and I'd like to think that RAJ is looking at upcoming position players who are due new contracts. After all, the farm doesn't have much in the way of position players that are MLB ready.

Gillies had a .381 BABIP last season.

OK, so Lee wanting to stay maybe explains the physicals for Blanton and Happ yesterday? Or was that just another red herring?

Also, Aumont is a huge (6' 7") RHP with a +FB, improving curve, and is learning the CH...not too bad, as 19 year olds go. He looks to go either way (SP or CL), depending on how he's developed, but I would think that if he is developing a 3rd pitch then we're looking at possibly a 2-3 starter (read: workhorse) somewhere down the road.

And Gillies? Apparently the guy has the potential to be an OBP machine with some power. Maybe the replacement leadoff hitter in 2012? Speed to burn, and a good arm too?

And as far as Drabek goes, at times I saw him projected as no better than a #3 last year. The evals on him have gone up and down since last summer, depending on what was going on in the trade market.


WHAT IS HAPPENING

this is the craziest trade negotiation that I've ever followed.

***Now if Marquis comes in rotation is Doc, Hamels, Blanton Marquis and Happ. Not bad and what to do about Moyer.****

How would we possibly afford Marquis?

Ooh, I got it! Maybe we'll dump Utley for some infield prospects and start Juan Castro instead.

So glad we're paying Jamie Moyer $8 million in 2010.

I'm dead set against trading 2 established starters, no matter if it's Happ or Blanton. Getting 1 for 2 doesn't make any sense. Aumont for Drabek: is this a wash? Somebody help me out w/ this.

If we're dumping the farm, we should at least be keeping Lee for 2010. Jays want too much and should be reminded what happened last summer.

Not liking the deal. I would've liked it is they only gave up Taylor and Lee but throwing them Taylor, D'Arnund, and Drabek is like falating Santa Claus. Sure they may extend Halladay but like most of you said we are giving up MLB ready talent and possible All-Stars for a 32 year old pitcher, who while the best pitcher in baseball, is no spring chicken and getting prospects back that may not be ready for a long time and may not amount to what we are giving up. Just seems like a little too much to give up, especially for how we got Cliff Lee and what we didn't need to give up to get him.

I've read every BL post to try to get a handle on this. Obviously Halladay is a prize acquisition, so why does this not feel good?

I know emotion (at least emotion without some logic behind it) is frowned upon on BL, but I keep thinking of how Lee stepped up to the plate for the Phils and in a sense, pitched them to the 6th game of the WS. I think about him catching that popup in the middle of another sterling performance like it was a wiffle ball off a kid's bat. The first words when I walked in the door last night from my wife, who tolerates my Phandom and has only a passing interest at best, were, "The Phillies aren't getting rid of Cliff Lee are they!?"

And as it unravels it sounds more and more like a salary dump that might have been avoided. We'll see what the final tally is before going too crazy, but I think a lot of Phans are waking up with a dismal feeling today about how this is going to spin out.

If they deal Lee for cost savings, then turnaround and sign Marquis, I will be upset.

Of course, if Hamels has another year like this past season, the Phils are gonna struggle getting back to the WS.

The only NL team that worries me for now is ATL due to their rotation.

So now is when we trade Ibanez *back* to the Mariners along with Hamels and an extra bag of Abreu's bats they found lying around CBP after the NLCS, right? The Phils would get the arb rights to Beltre, a few more injured/suspect M's prospects, and a pallet of new-in-box copies of Ken Griffey Jr. Presents Major League Baseball. Gotta pull the trigger on that, RAJ.

"So glad we're paying Jamie Moyer $8 million in 2010."

I know. ugh.

Bob: I know what you mean. As long as it doesn't cost too much, upgrading from Lee to Halladay is a good baseball move. However, it feels like Lee just dominated the Yankees a few days ago and we're dumping him. Bad karma there or something.

Everyone in baseball called Halladay "Amaro's White Whale".


How eerily accurate is that description now?

The best part of this deal is the cost of Halladay's extension - averaging $20 million a season and committing to only three guaranteed years past free agency. That's very reasonable. And for this season, because they're reportedly getting $6 million for Toronto, he's essentially owed Cliff Lee money for 2010.

you could probably argue that Aumont has a higher ceiling than Drabek, but it's all projection (big frame, powerful arm). Aumont is much, much rawer than Drabek and hasn't even been starting this past year, whether because of injury concerns or Seattle wanting to groom him as a closer.

@ ozark

I think this one may be a win. There were no guarantees about Drabek being here in late sumer, or even '11 for that matter. This guy looks to be ready in '11 if all goes well. The team has a boatload of SP under contract already, so delaying things a year is not necessarily bad, from an economic standpoint. Look at the logjam at SP last year and the confusion it created during the post season. Even w/o Lee, bringing up Drabek this summer would create the same scenario. So, in a way he is kind of blocked for at least one season.

Why am I starting to think that this whole deal revolves around Dom Brown staying with the Phils? Getting Gillies and keeping Brown seems to solve the OF problem in a couple years, no?

The part that will haunt Amaro is not finding a home for Blanton last week in an effort to shed salary, and because he didn't want to get caught with his pants down, tendered a deal to Kentucky Joe in the event that they couldn't land Doc. So because of that, they essentially had to sell off some of their best prospects to guarantee having a frontline starter for the next few seasons, while missing out on the opportunity to unleash Doc, Lee and Hamels hell upon the Yankees.

AUMOUNT IS GOING TO BE 21 IN JANUARY he is not 19, and he is an injury risk with hip problems and arm problems, that is why he isn't a starter in the minors like almost every other young top pitching prospect.

Including Drabek makes this a royal hose job for us, he was going to be able to slot right in as our number 3 next season

Jason wrote: The part that will haunt Amaro is not finding a home for Blanton last week in an effort to shed salary, and because he didn't want to get caught with his pants down, tendered a deal to Kentucky Joe in the event that they couldn't land Doc. So because of that, they essentially had to sell off some of their best prospects to guarantee having a frontline starter for the next few seasons, while missing out on the opportunity to unleash Doc, Lee and Hamels hell upon the Yankees.

That's why you run the blog...very well put. A graphic of Rube and Moby Dick seems applicable for the next thread...

This trade rumor can't be right. When I saw it on ESPN last night I was so mad I couldn't see straight. It was bad enough when it was just Lee and Taylor, but Drabek and D'Arnaud too? We's gots robbed if that's right. I keep telling myself it can't be right. There's got to be something else. We must be getting Downs or Morrow or both, right? It can't be right. It can't be right.

If they were going to trade Taylor, Drabek, and D'Arnaud they should have done it at the deadline as well as the Lee deal and gone into the playoffs with Halladay,Lee, and Hamels.

Wow. Got up this morning and my excitement for Halladay went down to almost nothing. I do not like what is going on. But, then again, I don't really know what's going on. This deal seems gets worse and worse by the minute.

This whole thing is bitter sweet.
Initial reaction was WOW, I can't believe they got Holiday, finally but then when you think about what they gave up to get him it really makes you irate! You mean to tell me you traded 7 of your top prospects in the past 3 months to get Doc, essentially that is exactly what this deal is. The Mariners do not have a strong farm system, so why do you trade lee now and settle for second teir prospects and then go and trade 2 of the top 20 prospects in all of baseball? You wouldn't trade Drabek a few months ago, but now you decide to pull the trigger and trade Lee? Why not Trade the 3 prospects for Doc, hold on to lee, worst case scenerio, we get compensation in draft picks for him? We could have even traded him closer to the deadline in July if this is how they feel, they are doing the fans injustice here! I love Doc and he is an upgrade that isn't the dilemma, but why the hell do you settle for trading Lee now? Mike Taylor is a right handed bat that could have replaced Werth in right field, Dom Brown is a lefty bat in an already lefty dominated lineup? There are way to many questions in this deal, If we traded the 3 prospects for Doc, kept Lee and had to trade Blanton (for maybe a reliever) or even put Moyer on the Physically unable to perform list to save some money on his crazy 8 million dollar salary then I am all for it....I can't believe we got Doc but yet I am so empty and angry at this!

Everyone in baseball called Halladay "Amaro's White Whale".


How eerily accurate is that description now?

Posted by: NEPP | Tuesday, December 15, 2009 at 08:07 AM

LOL. That story has a happy ending, right?

I'm terrified. The only thing keeping me sane is the thought that I felt the same way during the absurd rumors before the trade deadline this past year.

rjb360: LOL. That story has a happy ending, right?

LOL...I think our definitions of "happy" are slightly different.

It might be a good idea to wait and see what the deal actually is. Rube has, after all, demonstrated a fair amount of competence to this point.

What Dave Cameron (Mariner's Blog guy) has to say about the proposed deal for Lee:

"This is, quite frankly, a heist. The Mariners are getting a Cy Young caliber pitcher for some decent-but-not-great prospects. They aren’t giving up Morrow. They aren’t giving up Saunders. They aren’t even giving up Triunfel. And yet, they walk away with one of the five or six best pitchers in baseball.

Forget that we probably only have Lee for a year. We’re paying for about two months worth of his services and getting four months for free.

Seriously, dance in the streets. Build a bust of Zduriencik and place it on your mantle. Name your first born son Jack and your daughter Jackie. When this becomes official, hug someone. This trade is that good."

One more thing, Does anyone else feel like Pat Gillick is making this deal?? He is linked to all 3 of these teams in more ways then one...It's almost like he is toying with Rube right now and persuading him to trade Lee now to Seattle but why, why why why? I am trying to figure this deal out but it makes no SENSE.

The fact that Drabek is in this deal at all makes it a loser. could have lived with D'Arnaud and Taylor (barely). If there isn't a part 2 to this deal (w/Seattle or a whole separate deal w/someone else)the team w/ all the leverage just got screwed.

The only part of this deal that I still don't understand is who is getting Rube's marbles?

I will withold judgement until we know for sure, but it sure feels like the Cliff Lee experiment had two gambles: (1) That he would impact the 2009 playoff run, and (2) that he would impact future playoff runs. One of those worked out, the other may have been a miscalculation.

That Blanton will likely be in pinstripes and Lee will not in 2010 seems like the toughest pill to swallow.

At this point, I'm hugging my knees and rocking back and forth mumbling, "this can't be right" to no one in particular.

Where are Clout and BAP to tell me this is an awesome deal because the Phillies are getting 4 years of Halladay? And how is $20 million per a discount? I understand you save on the 2 extra out years Halladay could command if he wanted too, but I bet Lee would have signed for $18 per and you could have kept the prospects. This can't be the deal.

Keep Brown over Taylor. Keep Drabek. Keep Happ and Blanton. Anybody else is fair game, but does that squash the deal?

"Rube has, after all, demonstrated a fair amount of competence to this point."

The long-term implications of this deal, with the number of moving prospects assure us of two things:

- Judgement of RAJ's reign will be pending for a long time
- Beerleaguer may finally be able to move on from the Bobby Abreu trade and squabble over this for the next 5 years.

Thanks, JBird. Now I really feel like jumping off a cliff.

I am praying that this is all a nightmare.

Halladay at $20mil/yr for 2011-2013?! You're telling me we need to dump our 2,3,4 prospects to have the "pleasure" of shelling out $20mil per year?

How much would Halladay actually get in free agency?!?! $23-$25mil?! Even that is pretty high I think.

"Maybe there are some other underlying factors we don't know of yet."

I posted above early this morning that that Giles and Monty shounld be ashamed of themselves, if ehat we hear is true.

After sleeping on it, and thinking it through, I'm not sure the FO has as much financial flexibility as we think.

It's quite possible, given the loan covenants they have with the banks (remember, they had to BORROW a great deal of money to buikd the 'Zen) that they have to show some specific level of operating profit un order to maintain a favorable interest rate.

Now, I'm not defending the decision to trade Lee instead of Blanton, but from a financial standpoint, they may not have a choice.

I'm still gonna be very, very disappointed.

This trade will look even worse in 2012 when we trade Roy Halladay for Omar Daal Jr and Travis Lee II...and Rube explains that we can't afford $20 million a year when we're only averaging 25K a game in attendance.

There are now reports that a fourth "mystery team" is involved, rumored to be the Expos.

The Mets traded away their "farm"(to them at least) and handcuffed themselves with a monster contract for the best pitcher in baseball--how'd that work out?

You either handcuff yourself with a contract or you sell the farm... you dont do both.

Rube's Christmas List:

Trade Cliff Lee, the winning pitcher for your only two World Series victories, for two sacks of beans with French sounding names. Check!

Lake Fred's Christmas List:

Nausea medicine to ease stomach pain from trading away crowd favorite Cliff Lee, the winning pitcher of the Phillies only two World Series victories, for two sacks of beans with French sounding names. Check!

I hear the Jays are also asking for the Liberty Bell and the ghost of Richie Ashburn too. Hell why not. Ryne D'naud anyone?

I have to say, yesterday I was excited but now that all these names are being thrown out there regarding who we have to give up, I am not going to be a fan of this move if true.

Why would you give up the core of our minor league system for Halladay when we already have Lee?

I think my brain is jiggling around in my head now with all this talk because at this point I can't think clearly anymore. I am just going to wait and see the final trade pieces then go from there.

Just get fair value for Lee. Counting on Ruben to be shrewd here.

About Lee and his wanting big bucks and lotta years to extend (supposedly: I can see why this makes him tradeable. OTOH, if Jamie Moyer earns $8 mil. this year, surely Lee is worth twice the price of Moyer, isn't he? He's probably worth the $20 mil. he reportedly wants, frankly, looking at what Wolf's making. (Although my son keeps saying Lee's not as good as CC to make that kind of money.)

So we need to get something back for this guy who carried us to Game 6 of the WS last year. Something substantial, of real value. Or else we need not to give up 3 highly regarded prospects to get Halladay.

Last night, Reynolds and Mitch thought it was a win-win for all sides - with Lee to M's for prospects they flipped to BJ's, and that's it - although Harold said he doubted we'd be able to do it w/o giving up a prospect. "A" prospect, not "several"/3.

OK with giving up the 3 to get Halladay, but not giving up Lee for anything less than stellar prospects. Shop him around.

And I'll still hate to lose him, but at least make it fair, Rube.

MVP: Why would you give up the core of our minor league system for Halladay when we already have Lee?

"Call me Ishmael."

The Expos? Can we get 1997 Pedro in exchange for 2009 Pedro?

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

Is it just me or does this trade keep looking worse? We're basically trading Carrasco, Knapp, Donald, Marson, Taylor, Drabek, and D'Arnaud for a couple of lesser Mariners prospects and Halladay? Why not just make the trade for Halladay last Summer instead and hang onto some of your better prospects? When you look at the whole picture, the Phils have basically traded 7 of their top 10 prospects for Halladay, which is grossly overpaying, IMO. I mean, I'm no GM, and Amaro doesn't seem like a dumb man, but I REALLY don't like the way this is going...

Why give up your top prospects and your ace in a lateral move? I don't mind the trade for Halladay part. But why trade Lee for peanuts just to free up 6 mil? Let lee test free agency after he and doc win the phils another WS. You'd be getting some decent draft pics from loosing him. Then moyers stupid contract comes off the books. The phils owners have been ridiculously cheap for years, they didn't spend money until the tax payers built them a new stadium, and now they want to hose us over 6 mil for one year? seriously?

Given there haven't been an major changes in the rumors for a while - I'm assuming that the deals have described are going down.

Seems like a reasonable trade of prospects for one of the best pitchers in the game with a distinguished record of performance.

Given that the Phils made it to the WS with a pitcher maybe just a tad below Halladay in quality last year, they obviously have a good chance of getting to the WS this year with Halladay in the rotation.

So it boils down to trading one year of Lee, when there is solid reason you get to the WS without him, for a couple of quality prospects, rather than letting Lee walk at the end of next year and getting relatively little in return.

I would kill to have Lee and Halladay in the same rotation, no doubt - but I can certainly understand the logic here. There is more to recommend these deals than simply saying it is a salary dump.

This just in from MLBTR....

(amongst other pieces of the trade)
"The Mariners get Cliff Lee from the Phils and they could be getting more"

uhh.. what? from US?

What more are we going to give them.. jesus

confirmed reports that the more is domonic brown not yet confirmed if we are also sending trevor may and domingo santana

Simply put you don't give away a top of the rotation ex-Cy Young award winner in his prime for two half way decent prospects. If you absolutely have to move Cliff Lee' salary then get major league ready blue chip prospect talent in return. Its the equivalent of trading Adrian Peterson for Beanie Wells and any Oakland Raiders first round pick. They're talented prospects but not studs by any stretch of the imagination.
If I were the Phils I'd pull Lee from the equation and deal him separately since none of the prospects supposedly from the Mariners would be involved in the trade between the Bluejays and the Phils.

anyone have any idea what is still being negotiated? is it the contract with halladay or is it the other pieces? any idea? the longer this goes on, the more i think it could be falling apart.

i am very sad, who thought getting roy halladay would suck so much

Yo, newer thread

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