Phillies once discussed trading for Franklin Gutierrez

Last night at the Winter Tour, I asked Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. how they arrived at the decision to get Ben Francisco as part of July's Cliff Lee 4-for-2:

"We had been looking for a right-handed bat off the bench since the offseason of ’08," Amaro said. "It was tough. We had had some discussions about either (Franklin) Gutierrez or (Ben) Francisco over the course of that year. We had talked internally about both those guys. Then in '09, once we added that fourth prospect, we felt like we had to get another name back rather than go 4-for-1. We were fortunate to get him back, and he gives us some versatility."

Gutierrez was traded to the Mariners in a three-team deal in December of 2008 and hit .283/.339/.425 with 18 for Seattle in 2009. Many of the larger stat houses, including Fangraphs.com and Baseball Information Solutions, consider him to be perhaps the best defensive player in baseball. The Mariners agreed, signing the 26-year-old centerfielder to a four-year, $20 million extension this month.

Comments

[Jack]

Gutierrez is a fantastic defensive player, and thus a better player overall, but Francisco fits our team better. Making Gutierrez a bench hitter would be wasting most of his value, which comes from playing CF everyday.

[mvptommyd]

Responding to posts from last thread

"Tommy: You think Escalona is a better lefty option than Bastardo?"

No, my fault I forgot to add him in there. It will be Bastardo not Escalona

"No but if you were to do a copy/paste, they apparently get a bit antsy from what I understand."

Exactly, well that is understandable. As long as you cite the info you are fine.

[mvptommyd]

WillyfromPhilly: This is BLer. Where the only thing that matters are fangraphs, baseballreference and BP. Scouting with your eyes is not allowed.

Also BLers favorite book is "Moneyball" that describes the use of Sabermetrics and modern use of computers to build a winning team with a minimum salary cap strucure.Worth noting that the A's haven't won a thing under Beane when it comes to playoffs( won 76,75,75 past 3 years).

***For the record, I don't think Bastardo is Santana. However he isn't a bum, as some suggest***

[mvptommyd]

Jack: Regarding sending KK to LHV is completely true. But I am going on the premise that KK beats out Moyer.

IF Moyer beats out KK then of course the BP will be Bastardo,Durbin, Baez,Contreras, Romero, Madson, Lidge.

[Jack]

Tommy: Are you a professional scout? Do you travel the country scouting the minor leagues?

And I don't know what you're getting at. Most of us agree with WillyfromPhilly and think Bastardo is quite good. It's only one person, Clout, who thinks he's a bum, and ranks him below legendary top prospect Joe Savery.

[Jack]

Tommy: Ok then. Looks like we're mostly in agreement, except you think KK will beat out Moyer. I think that even if they pitch relatively equal, Moyer's contract and Kendrick's options make it a simple decision for the FO to make Moyer the 5th starter.

Kendrick would have to pitch very well (or Moyer's injuries would have to be serious) for him to be the 5th starter, in my opinion.

[mvptommyd]

Jack: I am just breaking stones in regards to his "Pearl Vision" quote. Just saying BLers rely on reading numbers, not really watching guys.

Also, I am covering my tail for clout, so he can't say that I think he will be Santana.

[mvptommyd]

Jack: Again we agree. If Moyer and KK pitch equally, then KK will get sent down. But Moyer is in his upper-40's, has had 2-3 surgeries and who knows if he can pitch yet? The sun is slowly setting on Moyer's career.

[MG]

mvp - I don't have time to go back & forth with you all day but my point after the Halladay trade was that Condrey/Park/Eyre provided the Phils with about 120+ IP of very good bullpen relief last year and that the Halladay acquisition didn't really make that much of a difference on the bullpen utilization.

Phils still needed to find replacements for Condrey/Park/Eyre and 480-500 IP out of their bullpen this year.

That meant signing at least 2-3 additional relievers which you said wasn't necessary because of the Halladay trade and because of the various internal options the Phils had to fill out the pen. Guess Amaro disagreed with you on both accounts.

[Cipper]

I'd rather see Moyer come back and coach for a couple years. Give him his 8 mil over two years as a coach or something? who knows. I just don't really want to see him on the mound for my health and his own.

[MG]

Anything the Phils get out of Moyer will be a bonus this year and the Phils' FO comments/FA moves since his 2nd offseason surgery indicate as such. Just an $8M writoff at this point.

[MG]

I don't know if Bastardo has the control to succeed as a situational guy. He has the stuff but it remains to be seen if he can come in to face 1-2 batters and throw strikes with enough consistency.

Zagurski actually has MLB-caliber stuff right now at Reading. Saw enough of it last year. Problem is that he had outings where he would come in and throw maybe 2-3 strikes in his first 9-10 pitches.

You can't do that at the MLB level and stick as a situational reliever.

[Phillies Red]

Interesting note about Gutierrez. He would have looked good playing in red pinstripes, but it doesn't seem the timing was right.

In the end, I think Jack's take is spot on: BenFran is a good fit for this team. I'm bullish on Ben as a bench player this year and as a platoon or regular in 2011. He's no Werth, but he is versatile and might have a tad of upside left.

[mvptommyd]

"Condrey/Park/Eyre provided the Phils with about 120+ IP of very good bullpen relief last year"

So you don't think Baez/Contreras/Romero can offer the same if not better?

"Guess Amaro disagreed with you on both accounts. "

Once again, you are confusing my points. My point when saying they should fill out the remaining 1-2 spots internally with Mathieson and Escalona preferably was that the budget was pushing $139 at the time and I wanted to have money to spend if needed at the trade deadline.

I think having money at the deadline is ALMOST as important if not more important than having money now. Because 1.) Teams are eager to shed better players for a pro-rated price in the last year of their contracts and 2) In July you can see a lot easier what your weaknesses are rather then in January.

[MG]

Francisco is an interesting case and made the Lee trade that much more of a steal.

Various projections vary on Ibanez's power numbers this year:

James (589 ABs/26 HRs/.467 SLG)
Marcel (495 ABs/22 HRs/.479 SLG)
CHONE (521 ABs/27 HRs/.488 SLG)
Baseball Pr. (493 ABs/14 HRs/.429 SLG)

Nobody has Ibanez duplicating his impressive power numbers from last year:

(500 ABs/34 HRs/.552 SLG) which easiest were his best power numbers of his career in terms of HR/AB and .SLG pct.

Just as Polanco's value to the Phils is really going to be determined by his AVG this year (anything below .295 will be diasppoiting), Ibanez's real value to the Phils will be his power numbers. Last year, he was unbelievable in the 1st half and below average in the 2nd half.

I am not nearly as down on Ibanez as Baseball Prospectus numbers project. If he posts those type of numbers, he is a platoon-type OF given his below average speed & defense. Means Francisco should get a fair amount of starts in LF vs. LHP and the occasional RHP.

My bet is that Ibanez ends up right around .275 with 22-23 HRs. Not great but certainly good enough to remain the starter in LF this season.

If Ibanez hits 30+ HRs again this season, then Amaro looks like more of a genius.

[clout]

Jack: Hey, I like Bastardo. Just didn't have him in the top 10 because, unlike you, I didn't see him as a starter. I think even a #4 or #5 starter is morevaluable than a 1-inning reliever unless the guy is a stud setup man or closer. And, unlike your changing views of Bastardo, I don't think he'll be an All-Star closer until he solves his command issues.

[MG]

1. Baez/Contreras/Romero this year > Park/Condrey/Eyre last year?

No. Park pitched incredibly well out of the bullpen. Condrey also was pretty effective as was Eyre. They gave the Phils 120 IP of just over 3.00 ERA and a WHIP that was just north of 1.20. Those are very good numbers that I don't see Baez/Contreras/Romero outperforming this year.

2. Teams have been willing to spend contracts at the trading deadline but I wouldn't say the price has been 'cheap' as they are still looking for young, MLB-ready talent. Phils don't have alot of that right now and likely won't be able to make a big-move at the trading deadline because they simply won't want to part with some of the better young prospects that remain in their system.

Doesn't mean the Phils might not make a move at the trading deadline for a marginal piece but right or wrong I think that team that takes the field on Opening Day will be pretty much the same one you see all season (barring callups or Lidge/Romero/Moyer) returning after Opening Day.

[mvptommyd]

1) I tend to agree with you that the current trio won't be as good as last year's trio. However, I think it will be close.

2.)I tend to agree as well. But I just wanted to clear up my point and my way of thinking. I wasn't saying to fill the bullpen internally with Bastardo, Mathieson and Escalona because I was really "happy" about that, but again I wanted to keep money for the deadline. So in order to do that we would need to fill internally.

But now that we signed Baez and Contreras to a total of $4 million contracts and the payroll with renewals will be pushing $142 million, I agree that our Opening Day roster will likely be the one we go with for the year with Romero, Lidge and possibly Moyer returning soon into the season.

[awh]

I love all this bullpen discussion, so much so, that I went to b-r.com to look at some MLB bullpen stats.

I was surprised by what I found.

Despite being mediocre overall, the Phils BP was excellent in a couple of areas, most notably their performance with inherited runners.

The Phillies were actually 2nd in MLB (26%) to the Cardinals (23%) in allowing the second lowest percent of IR to score.

Additionally, they were second only to the Buccos (yes, the Bucs) in the number of IR, with 188 to the Bucs 183.

However, the Phils RP allowed 4.38 R/G (per 9 IP) - 7th lowest in MLB (LAD were lowest at 3.77 RPG), so it seems that when they got in trouble and surrendered runs it was of their own making.

In looking through the stats, it seems that the Phils bullpen wasn't all that bad last season - at least compared to the rest of MLB.

I think, however, that our perception of their performance is greatly influenced by the number of blown saves, which were above average, and the performance of the closer, who turned in the worst performance by a closer in the history of MLB.

[Jack]

Clout: I don't think Bastardo will be an all-star closer either, just a very good lefty reliever. Maybe even a setup guy the quality of Madson, or a power lefty who can also face righties, something like Kuo on the Dodgers.

I think he's better than Savery because I think Bastardo will actually make a significant contribution to a good MLB team. I don't see Savery being even a consistent 4/5 starter at the MLB level. Strikes me as a AAAA type, going back and forth for most of his career, who could be lucky to catch on as a full-season starter on a bad team. Your typical replacement-level pitcher.

[clout]

I wouldn't rule out Mathieson elbowing his way into a bullpen spot. His fastball is better than Bastardo's because he can actually throw strikes with it.

In 501 IP, Mathieson has 2.9 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 for a K/BB ratio of 3, which is pretty damn good.

Bastardo's numbers are 271 IP, 3.9 BB/9 and 10 K/9 for a K/BB ratio of 2.56.

The issue is whether Mathieson will be 100% healthy.

[Jack]

Clout: Agree that Mathieson would be a very good option if he's healthy. He's got the kind of stuff that is always needed in a bullpen.

[mvptommyd]

Clout: Agree 100% on Mathieson. So much so I suggested from my posts above that a while back I suggested using Mathieson instead of signing Contreras or another arm. I like him alot, but your right his issue is health related.

[mvptommyd]

Event reminder:

This Saturday @ Citizens Bank Park Polanco will be signing autographs at the Majestic Clubhouse

Also, on Sunday at 7:30 p.m. at the Broadway Theatre for a unique showing of Legends of the Fall: The 2009 Phillies Video Yearbook DVD. Tickets are $8 each. A portion of the proceeds will go to Phillies Charities, Inc.

[Jack]

Clout: Also, if Mathieson's 3 K/BB ratio is "pretty damn good", what does that make Bastardo's 2.56? Not bad, right?

Your point about Bastardo's control is well-taken, but most young pitchers have that issue. Bastardo's control has gotten better though. Check out his BB/9 numbers by year:

2006 (age 20): 5.5
2007 (age 21): 4.2
2008 (age 22): 4.3
2009 (age 23): 2.0

All while keeping his K numbers at a very respectable level, around 9-10 K/9.

I think he's shown a lot of promise, and I don't see any reason to believe he won't be a very good MLB reliever.

[clout]

Jack: His 2009 season consisted of 54 IP, about half of his previous two seasons, but if he can sustain that 2 BB/9 for 100 IP then I agree.

[mvptommyd]

Stark saying that the Phillies are still looking for more bullpen help. Some names thrown around are Alan Embree and Ron Mahay. However, both those guys want major league deals and the Phillies are looking to offer MiL deals at this point.

Heyman is reporting that the Mets are interested in Frank Catalanotto. Despite hitting just .278/.346/.382 last year.

Wow the Mets attempting to sign Catalanotto and Fogg in one day. With each Mets signing I am see their 2010 season getting closer and closer to going down the drain.

[BobbyD]

I still see the NL East standings staying exactly the same as last year.

[Unikruk]

AND A-Rod says he considered retiring. What a day.

[Bonehead]

I'm fine if the Phils do nothing further this offseason but sign a couple of replacement level vets to minor league deals. Having that kind of inventory hanging around was very valuable last year; e.g., Ty Walker, RoLo, Trashner, Cairo, Bako.

[mvptommyd]

"AND A-Rod says he considered retiring. What a day."

Yea, A-Roid begging for attention. Watch it come out years from now that he was on HGH during the 2009 season and playoffs. He was hitting out of his skull. 15 games,6 HR's, 18 RBI's, .365/.500/.808/1.308.

[mvptommyd]

The Red Sox, Phillies, Diamondbacks and Rockies watched Oscar Villarreal throw today, tweets Ed Price of AOL Fanhouse.

This is one that is interesting. It seems that Oscar has somewhat of the "Lidge Effect". In that he is good one year, then stinks the next two. If that trend continues then he is due to be good this year. He is pretty young (26 years old) but has control issues on and off his whole young career. Career average 3.6 BB/9 and 6.3 K/9 along with his 8.7 H/9.

He has a great slider and good change up. Can also throw the fastball around 90 mph. But he struggles getting ahead in the count and then gives up so many hits and gets into big innings. Injuries have also hurt him thus far into his career.

I guess it would be nice to have him in the Minors, but nothing more at this point.

[Robby J]

Mvp--Villarreal is 28 He would be a Contreras equal (minus the versatility and 10 yrs younger). I thought he had promise two years ago in Hou but he pitched his way right toward average. Rotoworld has his last team as KC.. I thought it was the 'Stros..

[NEPP]

****The Phillies would like to add a veteran left-handed reliever on a minor league deal, but Alan Embree and Ron Mahay are holding out for big league deals at this point, despite the Phillies' interest. ****

Any interest in either?

[awh]

A-Roid is an attention whore.

If he or any other steroid user ever get into the HOF it will cheapen the Hall and be and insult to the other players already enshrined.

[Cliff]

Reaching out to those more knowledgeable than myself (which is just about everyone): What do we expect out of John Mayberry this season?

Am I stretching reality too much to say a good, solid season out of Mayberry goes a long way toward easing the pain (emotionally, if anything) of Werth's departure?

On that note, how much of Domonic Brown do we see in 2010 if the idea is to start preparing for post-Ibanez?

Sorry for moving away from the bullpen discussion, this thread just has a "OF" feel to it.

[aksmith]

Expect nothing from Mayberry and you'll be less disappointed. Ben Francisco is already an established major league outfielder. He is the guy who will be manning right field after Jayson Werth is gone.

Golson and Mayberry was an even exchange of young fellows who will never be major league ballplayers. It's sad. They both have tools and could be great players if only they could actually play baseball.

[Jack]

awh: It's very likely that there are players already in the HOF who have done steroids. It's also quite obvious that there are other players in the HOF who have cheated in any number of ways, from doctoring the ball, to using amphetamines, to corking bats. There are also plenty of "attention whores", racists, gamblers, and players who attacked other players on the field with a bat (Juan Marichal).

There's plenty of good guys, bad guys, and guys in between in the HOF, steroids or not. The only thing they all have in common is that they were fantastic baseball players, steroids, amphetamines, racism, or not.

[Jack]

Cliff: I wouldn't expect anything out of Mayberry except some occasional power as RH bench bat. His upside as an MLB player is as half of an OF platoon (either LF or RF), but probably never an everyday player. Having Francisco makes Mayberry sort of irrelevant, so I wouldn't expect much.

Also wouldn't expect to see Brown on the team at all this year. He most likely splits the season between Reading and Lehigh Valley. If all goes well, he should certainly compete for the RF job next season, assuming Werth is gone.

[Cliff]

Jack and aksmith: Thanks. I was just looking over the roster, saw Mayberry's name, and thought I'd inquire.

[Alby]

On the relievers: Front office has been interested in Mahay before, IIRC. Meh, unless you go on the theory he's due for a good season after having his worst season in five years last year. Still, he was good in his half-season in Atlanta in 2006, as well as for Minnesota when they acquired him for last year's stretch drive. Who wouldn't suck as a reliever for the Royals?

More interesting in Stark's column: Smoltz may wait quite a while to sign, say midseason, as a starter, a la Pedro last season. As some would say, interesting.

[NEPP]

****What do we expect out of John Mayberry this season? ****

To be the best darn AAA OF he can be. Odds are he'll also have a shot at getting a callup if Ibanez gets dinged up. If its Werth or Vic, they'll probably call up Dewayne Wise for his glove instead.

On Dom Brown: He'll split time between Reading and Allentown. I'd expect him to go to AAA by June at the latest. He might see some ABs as a Sept callup but there is little to no chance he'll be on the roster before then.

[MG]

NEPP - I wouldn't mind seeing Mahay in the Phils camp just to give them some competition for Bastardo/Escalona (and possible only lefty to start Opening Day).

Frankly, it is has been nice to see Amaro try to stock up on veteran depth to give the Phils some alternatives and allow them to stash some potential useful callups at AAA.

[free FONT]

hello! warm greeting!

do you like unique fonts???

[Klaus]

Electing Jim Rice cheapened the Hall. To elect Barry Bonds would be to elevate it--that is, if the Hall is indeed what it purports to be.

[mikes77philles]

Elect all of the steroid guys to the Hall and be finished with it.
There are guys who never got caught that are about to get in anyway. What are they going to do with guys like Ivan Rodriguez? He has been linked to steroids, but was not caught. He will get in.
You have a whole slew of '90s superstars whos numbers suddenly exploded after they were nothing minor leaguers, like Piazza and Bagwell, who will get in too.
Let Bonds and Clemens in, they were great before steroids.

[derekcarstairs]

A bullpen consisting of some combination of 7 out of the following 8 looks pretty good: Lidge, Madson, Baez, Contreras, Romero, Durbin, Bastardo, Mathieson.

[Noah]

When having the Hall of Fame steroid debate, it's worth noting that the recently inducted Rickey Henderson, who played in Oakland with McGwire, Giambi and Canseco at various times in his career, stole 66 bases in 1998 (the McGwire-Sosa home run chase year). Rickey was 39 years old in 1998.

It was the first time he'd stolen 60 or more bases since 1990, the first time he'd stolen more than 50 bases since 1993 and it was after posting 3 straight years of increasing stolen base totals in his late 30s.

If those had been his home run totals he would have been indicted in the minds of the BBWAA but because they can't conceive of the possibility of steroids helping you in areas other than smashing dingers, he was not.

I'm not saying Rickey was on steroids, just that it's very rare to see stolen base numbers spike at age 39, just as it's rare to see home run numbers spike at age 39.

[Bonehead]

Two topics that put me in a bad mood......the skewed stats of the steroid era, and the dilution of the HOF.

[Jonesman]

I'm with Bonehead, I think I would rather discuss unique fonts than steroids and the HOF. No offense to those who do discuss it, but it just makes me feel tired and sad.

On Mayberry, the only way he might still give this team some marginal value is if they let him get his ABs in AAA most of the year and have him on the big club next year to take some of the load off of Ibanez (assuming Werth is gone and Francisco/Brown are manning right field). Maybe a double OF platoon just like in '93?

[awh]

Jack, point taken, but you're addressing someone who doesn't think a cheater like Gaylord Perry belongs there either.

We could discuss this ad infinitum, but I think you get my point.

[MLL]

Returning to the pitching situation, I think that it is important that the Phillies give KK enough of a chance to show that he has added to his repertoire and can now be a 5th starter in the majors. If he can that means that after this year Moyer can be let go without needing a replacement. IIRC, there is some clause in Ibanez' contract that makes him easier to trade after Nov, 2010. That would free up some money to sign Werth. I would much rather trade Ibanez- even for very little or nothing- after the 2010 season if it will allow us to retain Werth (barring any career catastrophe this year to the latter).

[awh]

"Ben Francisco is already an established major league outfielder. He is the guy who will be manning right field after Jayson Werth is gone. "

And the Phillies could do a lot worse than Benny Frank.

I've posted this before, but, based on lifetime OPS+ numbers, he's good enough to start on many MLB teams right now. In fact, his lifetime OPS+ place him in the top 30 of all MLB OF who had more than 300 PA in 2009.

He's not Jayson Werth, but he was an excellent pickup by Rube & Co.

[AL]

Even if we trade Ibanez the Phillies will still be on the hook for some of his salary. No team is going to pay 12 mil for him at 39 years old.

[awh]

AL, if the Phillies are on the hook for some of his salary, why do you care?

As long as the team improves because of it....

[limoguy]

So, what are we saying? That the trade that brought Lee and Franciso here was mainly to get Ben with Cliff as a throw-in?

[MLL]

AL, considering that by 2011, Domonic Brown is probably ready to replace Ibanez, we could afford to eat some salary. Also, if Ibanez has a half decent year in 2010, some contender with a RH power bat hole to fill would probably be glad to shell out most of that money for a one year commitment, especially if it cost little or nothing on prospects.

[MLL]

Sorry- that should be LH power bat.

[awh]

This from Murph's latest edition of "High Cheese":

"... on paper, the Phillies received more upside in the package of prospects they obtained for Lee than the package of prospects they dealt (in the first Lee deal)."

IMHO, he's correct.

[awh]

MLL, good point.

If the Phils think, for instance, that Brown can replace Ibanez's production, then even if they had to eat 2/3 of Raul's salary they would have reduced their payroll and had a productive LF.

[CJ]

awh: I think most people believe that the prospects we got back, on the whole, have more upside (although Knapp may have the greatest upside of any single player in the deals).

However, I'm not sure it's fair to compare those two deals. If you believe the Phils got a steal when they dealt for Lee... that doesn't mean they should get fleeced when dealing Lee away. I'm not one who believes the Phils got fleeced (I think the deal will turn out better than many think), but I also wonder if there was a better deal out there that the Phils weren't able to explore because of the timetable they forced themselves into.

[MG]

awh - The Phils chances of trading and eating 2/3 of Ibanez's salary in 2011 are slim with closer to none. Ibanez also had limited no-trade clause supposedly too.

One of the major issues with Ibanez's contract was that he got a 3rd year and that it was so backloaded.

Same thing will likely play out with Polanco too including his $6.25M in the 3rd year with $1M buyout in 2012. Phils likely will be stuck with a utility player who will cost them $7.25M in 2012.

[awh]

CJ, I think it's pretty clear the Phils pulled the trigger on the 2nd Lee deal very quickly, and IMO it was to avoid having Lee on the roster for 2-4 weeks which would have created a PR nightmare for them.

Can you imagine what it would have been like if they had waited to deal Lee - with Lee and his agent professing that he really wanted to stay in Philly, and fans screaming bloody murder for the team to keep him?

It would have been really, really ugly, and not a nice ending to 2 straight WS appearances.

[awh]

MG, I'm not sure that I agree than Polanco will regress to utility player status by then.

I'd say there is an equal chance he stays productive.

[clout]

awh: Murph, like all local baseball writers, is a homer, but I think he's got this one right. I await BA's 2010 book, but from what I've read at other sources, here's how those two groups match up:

Donald: Can't play SS, which lowers his value and he's heading into his age 26 season. His bat should keep him in the bigs but he's starting to look like a utility or 2B on bad team kind of guy.

Marson: He answered a lot of defensive questions this season, but he has zero power and will be replaced by Carlos Santana (I saw him in 2 minor league games at AA this past season and he's going to be huge) before the end of the year. Might end up a starter on another team.

Carrasco: Still has the most upside of anyone in either trade and he still only turns 23 this year, but the lack of consistent command is becoming a worry. To me, he's the key to Murph's thesis. If he does figure it out, I suspect Murph (and I) will be wrong.

Knapp: A big guy with outstanding stuff, but injury worries. In other words, he's virtually identical to Aumont.

Aumont: A big guy with outstanding stuff, but injury worries. I think he'll end up in the pen, just hope Phils insistence on him being a starter doesn't ruin his arm and hip.

Gillies: Upside is higher than either Marson or Donald. Because stats at High Desert are a joke, what he does at Reading this year will tell us if the scouts are right. If he keeps his AVG up he could be a great leadoff guy. Defense is unquestioned.

Ramirez: The highest risk/highest ceiling of anyone outside Carrasco and he's a year younger. Throws 96 mph and I think he's got #1 potential, something I used to think about Carrasco but don't any longer. Ignore High Desert stats, which are a joke. Consistent mechanics, rare for a 22-year-old, just needs to polish his changeup.

[NEPP]

I dont think Murphy is from the Philly area...lots of time local writers move where the job opening is. Martino, for example, is from Long Island I believe.

Well, Aumont is more advanced than Knapp. Knapp is still in that "blow his elbow out danger period" of being a young prospect. Aumont is getting past that age wise.

Carrasco just needs a good pitching coach.

On Gillies, I believe his stats from last year normalized down to around a .290 AVG/.370 OBP if that helps...get him out of the High Desert and he's still a pretty good hitter but not a ridiculous one.

Donald's 26??? Wow...he got old fast.

[NEPP]

Just checked...it'll be his Age 25 season, not 26...despite him turning 26 in September (majority of the year at 25 is what matters).

Still old for a prospect that hasn't really seen any time.

[SmokyJoe]

Regardless of where he played last year, Gillies has me real intrigued. As so aptly demonstrated in Major League, a guy with Gillies' speed (ala Willie Mays Hayes) needs to work the count, take some walks, and hit the ball on the ground. As clout said, his defense gets very high marks. On the offensive side, his walk rates, strike out rates, and ground ball percentages are extremely encouraging, and those types of things are completely independent of what league or stadiums you play in.

[SmokyJoe]

One more thing. I've heard Juan Pierre comps for Gillies, and that's treated as a bad thing. Does everyone on here remember how disruptive he was about 5/6 years ago when he (and Castillo) were with the Marlins? He was a single person wrecking crew. His problem was that he was a below average fielder with a weak arm, and if he couldn't get a hit he couldn't get on base since he rarely took a walk. As his speed slighlty diminished and he stopped being able to hit his way on base, he became the fourth outfielder he is today.

Gillies grades as a better fielder and more patient hitter than Pierre ever was. And I'm not entirely convinced that his incredibly high BABIP is unsustainable, since he has such great speed (sub 4 second to 1st base) and slaps so many ground balls. As clout and others have stated, this year in Reading will say so much. If he repeats last year's walk and strikeout rates, while keeping the average near .300 and playing good defense, he will rapidly climb the prospect rankings.

[Andy]

It may be only on beerleaguer that a comparison to another current or retired player holds equal sway to a comp to a fictional one.

(No critique; just an observation.)

[Andy]

Although I do wonder who would win a foot race: Juan Pierre or Willy Mays Hayes...I bet Gillies would beat them both.

[MPN]

Andy: If an IRS agent was present, do you adjust that prediction?

Willie Mays Hayes fears
The taxman draws closely near
Cleats beat flame trails gone

[NEPP]

Gillies actually has a good arm....unlike Juan Pierre. Juan Pierre with a strong arm is a great comp to get.

[awh]

new thread, boys and girls.