Beerleaguer for breakfast: 3 overlooked season keys

Hope springs eternal and all that jazz. Phillies baseball is back.

There was no rest for the weary this winter. In addition to welcoming a new addition to the family, transitioning to a new professional role with early-bird hours and producing a magazine, the Phillies kept the Beerleaguer discussion lively with a busy and controversial offseason. Five months truly passed in the blink of an eye and here we are, ready to start the cycle all over again. With the clock ticking down to opening day, here are three, last-minute issues worth considering.

1. Cholly the tactician: Everyone forgets that the World Series slipped away when Charlie Manuel kept a visibly spent Pedro Martinez in the game to face Hideki Matsui when he had J.A. Happ warmed and ready in the bullpen. Somewhere between raising the World Series trophy and today, we stopped second-guessing a skipper who, quite frankly, made a lot of questionable choices earlier in his tenure. With the bullpen already in flux, an added dimension to the bench and a newly configured lineup with Placido Polanco up top, Manuel’s tactical wherewithal will be put to the test.

2. Not sold on Cole: It’s now conventional wisdom that Cole Hamels wasn’t as bad as he seemed based on the advanced statistics. But it still doesn’t change the fact that his biggest hang-up is being able to get out of his own way in a big situation to way he did in '08. Can we trust Hamels to hold it together, to hunker down and make the smartest pitch? It certainly feels like there's more pressure on Hamels than ever before. I'll believe it when I see it, not after slicing and dicing the peripherals.

3. How much rope for Jimmy? Generally, there was too much emphasis on Raul Ibanez’s poor spring and not enough given to Jimmy Rollins, who absolutely must bounce back from a dreadful .296 OBP campaign. It’s absolutely essential for J-Roll to put himself in position to manufacture runs so Polanco’s skill set isn’t wasted.

Comments

[Bubba]

Good news from philly.com:
Closer Brad Lidge threw for the first time since receiving a cortisone shot Tuesday and did so without any soreness in his right elbow, Amaro said.

That, Amaro said, means the cortisone shot has already done its job.

"He had no soreness when he threw," Amaro said.

[NEPP]

Answers:

1. Trust the Gut. He might not always make the right tactical decision but the team loves playing for him and they love playing in Philly because of that atmosphere.

2. My guess/prediction for Cole is a season around 15-9 and a 3.65 ERA. That's solid 1/2 pitching but not Ace level pitching.

3. Jimmy will bat leadoff until UC is no longer the manager or he's a SS for a nother team.

[Furnstein]

Building on the third point, it will be interesting to see if having Shane Victorino in the seven-hole will have an impact on Carlos Ruiz's offensive game.

Enjoy opening day, everyone.

[clout]

1. Charlie has never been an in-game chess master and never will be. He is the Andy reid of baseball managers.

2. The numbers are the numbers, but Cole himself has admitted he sometimes loses composure. We forget that he is just entering his age 26 season. He'll get better, not worse.

3. J-Roll has never been a leadoff hitter and never will be. Victorino wasn't one when he arrived, but his walks have gone up every year and he now would be the best fit. Regardless of his leadoff skills, J-Roll is one of the best offensive shortstops in baseball over the past several years.

4. Let me add a 4th key: Chooch. Last year was his career best season. If he maintains that level or better, this lineup will be the team's best ever.

[PHIinBK]

"...one thing has marked the time. Baseball Ray, baseball..."

[GBrettfan]

Go Phillies! Enjoy the first game, those of you who watch it! I will have to miss it but will think of our team and check in to read how they did.

[J. Weitzel]

Chooch is the only member of the lineup never to make an All-Star team. I think he has a good chance to do it this year. Generally, catching is horrible across the league.

[ozark]

Vic may steal a lot of bases this year as Ruiz is likely to GIDP more frequently than not. You hate the inning-ending DP and not turn the lineup over.

[Brian]

Thank you Buzz Killington

[Voice of Reason]

Three excellent points to ponder, Jason, though I do think it is unfair to pin the World Series loss on Charlie. If a certain first baseman produced even half of what he was capable of doing, the Phils would've taken the Series.

[curt]

All legit worries. Also, let us hope this insanity of Vic wasted at #7 is short-lived.

[J. Weitzel]

Buzz is a dime a dozen this morning.

[AL]

In regards to Charlie, I hope he doesn't ride Madson too hard this year. He's logged a good amount of innings these last two years and the Phillies can't have their most talented reliever burn out at all this season.

[MG]

Cholly's biggest deficit as a manager is his ability to handle pitchers and usage of the bullpen. Given the shaky nature of the bullpen, I really hope that Cholly has some common sense this year and avoids using his best relievers (e.g., Madson and TBD) in situations where this team is up or down 4 runs. You don't need Madson to protect a 4-run lead in the bottom of the 9th. You just don't. Yet it happens way too often.

This also means not letting Lidge pitch on 3 consecutive days this year. Understand you play each game to win but that will be foolish especially given Lidge is at a point in his career where he likely needs a minimum of wear & tear on his arm to hold up.

My bet is that Cholly will continue though to use Madson in a bunch of games where they are up/down at least 4 runs. Ditto on Lidge pitching 3 straight games. It will happen at least once and probably twice.

[Meyer]

Chooch and Kyle have a good chance to make the All-Start team. 10 wins for Kyle by the picks.

[Bay Slugga]

Good article about Cole on philly.com.

http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/20100405_Phillies_hope_for_the_return_of_Old_King_Cole.html

[RSB]

Manuel is a below-average strategist. That won't change. In the long run, however, in-game strategy ranks relatively low within the criteria of what makes a baseball manager effective.

Jimmy Rollins still scored 100 runs last year despite the weak OBP. Granted, that has more to do with the rest of the offense, but the bottom line here is that he could have the same OBP, and he'll still score 100 runs, and the Phillies will still win 90+ games. Although of course it would be nice, it's not really so crucial, given the abilities of the lineup below him, that Rollins bounce back with an improved performance. Keep in mind he still brings far more extra-base potential to his spot in the lineup than just about anyone else in baseball. I mean, Luis Castillo had a .387 OBP last season. Would anyone prefer him at the top of the order instead?

[gobaystars]

In the words on the imoral John Street "I'm having a great day!"
There is nothing anyone can complain about. An way I have two questions for all ya'll. Do you expect McNabb to throw out the first pitch on Wed night? What's the best spot in the city to catch this afternoons action?

[limoguy]

Phils will be phascinating to watch this year.

Is it just me or has Hamels gotten more ink this spring than Halladay?

Wouldn't it be great to see the Phils come out of the box with two straight dominant starts by Doc and Cole?

The shape the bullpen is in, they may need that.

[Bubba]

Following the political theme, I expect Joe Biden to throw out the first pitch in Game 2.

Born in PA and a long time DE resident, I guess he is a Phillies Phan.

[PhillyBlunt]

With Shane set free on the basepaths in the seventh hole...I can see a scenario where he is getting on base so much, and stealing bases so well, and setting the table, so to speak, that even if JRo isn't performing in the leadoff spot, there won't be any adjustments.
Additionally, Ruiz is poised to get a ton more RBIs just because Victorino is batting ahead of him, and there's a good bet he'll be on second a lot more than he'll be on first. So Ruiz as an all-star isn't tooooo far fetched. Ya feel me?

[Bay Slugga]

Bubba: Biden was at a Phillies game last summer. I could be wrong, but I think it was a game against the Pirates in which we beat Matt Capps - very exciting finish.

Confirm this anyone?

[Cipper]

Biden is a Phils fan, his convoy almost ran me over after game 3 of the WS...

[limoguy]

Biden is indeed a Phan.

[EastFallowfield]

I thought Mrs Biden was the fan, Joe was tagging along.

[Rich]

Who gives a crap whether or not Biden is a Phillies fan!

[ozark]

Biden will throw out the first error.