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Saturday, August 21, 2010

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Doc is making a strong Cy Young push.

NL CY watch

plyr: IP, W/L (SV / Shutout) -- K (BB) -- ERA/SIERA

Wainwright: 183.1 IP, 17-7 (2) -- 165 K (43 BB) -- 2.06/3.10
Halladay: 200 IP, 16-8 (3) -- 180 K (25 BB) -- 2.16/2.89

Heath Bell: 53.2 IP, 5-0 (37) -- 69 K (21 BB) -- 1.84/2.72
Ubaldo: 163.1 IP, 17-3 (2) -- 153 K (65 BB) -- 2.59/3.58
Wagner: 53.2 IP, 7-2 (30) -- 77 K (15 BB) -- 1.68/1.69

Hudson: 171.2 IP, 14-5 (0) -- 91 K (56 BB) -- 2.15/3.86
Latos: 142.2 IP, 13-5 (1) -- 144 K (38 BB) -- 2.33/3.11

Carpenter: 177.0 IP, 13-4 (0) -- 139 K (49 BB) -- 2.95/3.68
Johnson: 166.2 IP, 11-5 (0) -- 162 K (38 BB) -- 2.27/3.06

http://espn.go.com/mlb/features/cyyoung

Just for comparison

Hamels: 159.0 IP, 7-10 -- 162 K (48 BB) -- 3.51/3.27

What is Ruben Sierra's SIERA?

That's only slightly unreadable.

Halladay, Johnson, Wainwright, Latos have been the best SP in the NL by SIERA (Ricky Nolasco is having a big under the radar season as well).

Doc and Wainwright have the W/L records and the IP to back up their spots at the top (Latos has thrown 60 fewer IP than Doc; Johnson about 40).

If Ubaldo or Hudson win a lot of SABER types will be annoyed.

180 Ks vs 25 BBs...that's just sick

sicker:
147 Ks vs 10 BB (not that I'd trade Halladay for Lee under any scenario...still, that's ridiculous control).

Halladay has a good shot at winning the pitching triple crown. Not as difficult as the hitting triple crown, but rare nonetheless. I can't remember the last time it happened, but I think Johan may have done in back in Minnesota?

Since CBP is a bandbox, isn't Halladay's ERA the best, really?

Without his best stuff working, Roy Halladay (16-8) extend his shutout streak to 15 innings in a 1-0 Phillies defeat of Washington Friday night

Exactly the reason why...

Halladay = Ace.

Not that it's going to happen, but BL would implode if Wagner won the CY.

What was Manny Mota's PECOTA?

phlipper, I think the server would just shut down - permanently.

IF Wagner and Lee win the Cy....

Actually, it would be nice if the Phils beat Wagner around a little bit, but on second thought, I, in the remaining six games, the Braves are behind in the 9th and the Phils never have to face him.

Shoul say: "I hope, in the remaining six games".

No way with all those SP years that a closer wins the CY. I put them there because, according to the Neyer formula, they were among the leaders.

Lidge finished 4th in 08. Bet they get recognition close to that.

Agree that a starter will win NL Cy Young. Cy Young voters like gaudy win totals, so if Ubaldo were still 5 or 6 wins ahead of the field, he'd be the favorite. But now that Halladay & Wainwright have just about chased him down in win totals, I think it's a 2-horse race. It's really a toss-up at this point.

How does one define a "gaudy" win total as opposed to, let's say, an "excellent" win total?

Denny McLain 1968 31-6.


Gaudy.

phlipper, McLain was just padding his stats.

Yeah, 17-3 is eye-catching in a way that 17-7 is not. Although, you'd think with 26 starts or so some voters would ask themselves why he has 4 fewer decisions than Wainwright and Halladay.

His W/L will have to continue to be ridiculous in order for him to have a chance. He's too far behind in IP and BB and doesn't play on a contender. You could say he's had a not-hitter but Doc had a perfect game. I would take Hamels over Ubaldo.

By "gaudy" win total, I meant a number that really stands out from the crowd. If Halladay & Wainwright won 20 games, but Ubaldo won 24, Ubaldo would probably win the Cy Young even if his ERA was considerably higher. That pattern may be changing, as seen with Greinke's Cy Young last year. But old habits die hard. For example, let's see who wins the AL Cy Young this year. It will undoubtedly be either Sabathia or Price, though Lee, Cahill, and Felix are all having better years.

Weaver, Liriano, Lester are all more deserving as well .

Just razzin' you, BAP. It was obvious what you meant.


.... though Lee, Cahill, and Felix are all having better years.


Well, according to this formula:

Cy Young Points (CYP) = ((5*IP/9)-ER) + (SO/12) + (SV*2.5) + Shutouts + ((W*6)-(L*2)) + VB (bonus points awarded to a division winner)

which factors other factors in with W/L, Lee isn't even in the top ten, Cahill is 6th, and Feliz is 10th.

By what measures are Lee, Cahill, Feliz, Weaver, Liriano, and Lester all (apparently) clearly more deserving than Price and CC?

Price and CC actually get less "VB" points than Feliz (although not Cahill or Lester).

Halladay also has the CG advantage over Wainwright too. That matters. My bet is that as long as Halladay wins 20+ games and is within a 1-2 wins of Wainwright, he wins the Cy Young.

flipper - that formula I linked to is a CY "predictor" not a CY decider. The formula fits the history of CY voting. Unless you think the voting matches the deserving winner very, very well what the formula tells you isn't all that relevant.

Weaver: 168 IP, 186 K / 43 BB, 2.81 SIERA
Lirano: 151.3 IP, 165 K / 50 BB, 2.97 SIERA
Felix: 197.0 IP, 183 K / 55 BB, 3.23 SIERA
Lester: 163 IP, 166 K / 56 BB, 3.24 SIERA
Price: 151.7 IP, 141 K / 64 BB, 3.85 SIERA
CC: 181.7 IP, 143 K / 61 BB, 3.94 SIERA

I assume BAP actually meant Felix Hernandez not Neftali Feliz.

phlipper: Denny McLain?

Are you aware that in 7 of those wins, he finished an inning as the pitcher of record - WITH HIS TEAM TRAILING?

The Tigers came back in the bottom of the inning and scored, took the lead, and he was subsequently credited with the win.

I'm pretty sure they were referring to "Felix (meaning Feliz Hernandez), not "Feliz" (Neftali Feliz).

Am I right?

Dobbs cleared waivers and accepted a minor league assignment. We'll see him in September.

Felix Navidad.

AKA Kitty Christmas.

Pedro Feliz Navidad =
Merry Christmas, for Pete's sake.

Felix in el Barrio

Kitty's back in town (here we go now)
Kitty's back in town (oh, woah, oh, yeah)

phlipper, it may have been obvious to you, but not to me. I'm nit picking here I realize, but I don't consider high numbers of wins, IP, Ks, etc. to be "gaudy" because to me that implies something showy, in poor taste, not really earned, etc. And whatever one thinks of a W-L records, the pitcher did contribute to most, if not all, of the victories he gets credited for.

As far as the Cy Young is concerned, I can't see any RP winning this year. Too many SPs with great seasons.

Sophist, I did not remember that about McLain. Was he removed from those 7 games and then the Tigers went ahead?

Sorry about the Felix/Feliz confusion.

Sophist - I think that the formula given on the website is a reasonable way to evaluate pitchers. Perhaps SIERA is better, but no one measure is perfect. Both CC and Price are in the ballpark in terms of ERA (which I think is the most important measure of a pitchers contributions to his team - I don't know how to sort by ERA+), innings pitched, etc. But within the measures you're aggregating to decide who's had the best season, W/L is worthy of some consideration as well.

I think that Hernandez is having a monster season and is the player who's likely to be hurt the most because of W/L record.

Perhaps I'm unduly confident in the reasoning powers of the BWAA, but I simply can't see them not awarding the Cy to Halladay, should current trends continue--meaning, if the season ended today, I think Halladay would (and needless to say, should) win.

Among other things, I think the members of the BWAA are perhaps sick of being perceived of as idiots, slavishly beholden to win totals.

Sorry, cut off. My point being, I think they're willing to do the due diligence and dig deeply into the numbers, all of which I think point to Halladay as Cy Young recipient.

Yo, new thread

Dobbs!

Old Phan - I just meant that I understood BAP's use of the term "gaudy" - not that I necessarily agree with it. I agree that a W/L record is a significant measure. It's like average with RISP - it is an actual measure of a players contributions to at least some extent.

In theory, you could have a pitcher with great peripheral stats overall, but whose negative metrics are accumulated when he falls apart at decisive moments in close games: for example, he performs great when the team is well ahead and allows all his earned runs in tight games.

In contrast, you could have another pitcher who has mediocre overall stats, but who consistently performs best at crucial moments in tight games: for example, he allows a lot of runs when the team is way ahead and allows nothing at all when the games are close.

In such situations, a W/L record would tell you something about a pitcher's contributions to his team that wouldn't be captured by other measures.

Of course, the MVP award, is really should be more of a measure of a player's contributions while a Cy Young is more of a measure of their performance - but still, I think that factoring in W/L in voting considerations has its merits.

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