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Friday, October 01, 2010


Shoots that earlier posters guess at 50/50 in the butt a little bit. By my math, Vegas seems to think we have just a 28.5% chance of winning it all.

Then again, Vegas isn't as smart as those of us on BL.

On a related note, the Mets odds to win the WS this year are off the board.

Two great articles on Fangraphs this afternoon written by Dave Cameron. Cameron goes into detail about the differences between BR WAR and FG WAR. The thing I really liked about the articles is the critique that is given on the two statistics and why they are both flawed.

I believe it was mentioned on here that guys like Cameron don't critique their own work enough, but these articles really gave me some good insight into WAR.

Oh, and btw, I agree with JW. I'll take the Phillies over anyone in a 7 game series.

Anyone who has ever felt uncomfortable about the way Uncle Cholly speaks should have listenef to any pre or post game shows with soon to be booted Mets manager Jerry Manuel. Not only is the guy a total idiot but I think he actually puts himself to sleep in the process. He's one manager that will not be in demand in the off-season. I actually heard a Mets announcer open a question to Manuel during one of the Mets many multi-game skids by stating: "I know you are a big admirer of Ghandi, how does that get you through this season?"...gotta love the Mess.

Casey Stern thinks the Giants have narrowed the gap between themselves and the Phillies with their recent play, although he does concede the Phils are still favorites.

FWIW, which is probably nothing. Just one man's opinion. And I think he's a Mets fan. (Kidding, I mean I think he is, but he isn't anti-Phillies.) Tulo was interviewed earlier and conferred favored status on the Phils, too.

I feel like the Yankees of the NL...odd.

Here's the rule, courtesy of Wikipedia. I'll assume it's right:

"To be eligible for a team’s playoff roster a player must be on any of the following: (a) the 25 man active roster, (b) the disabled list, (c) the bereavement list, or (d) the suspended list as of August 31st at midnight. The only exception is that a player on the 60-day disabled list may be replaced by another player from the team's 40-man roster (as of August 31) who plays the same position (i.e. position player for position player, or pitcher for pitcher), with the approval of the commissioner of baseball."

If betting were legal, I would have got in at a pretty sweet time in August. 5/2 to win the NL 5 to 1 to win it all. But I went with the Rays/Phils matchup

re: Greg Dobbs (from last thread)

NEPA - i believe that has been discussed, and refuted, in this space before.

i could be wrong though...

Thank you for posting this.

i've been a very outgoing cameron basher, but i really liked those articles on FG today. more than the explanations, which were excellent, i liked his tone and his ability to see the flaws in both systems. kudos to dave.

When was the last time a Philadelphia team was the favorites to win the championship?

Blackhawks over Flyers in 10
Yanks over Phils in 09
Ray over Phils in 08
Pats over Eagles in 04
Lakers over Sixers in 01
Wings over Flyers in 97
Jays over Phils in 93
Oilers over Flyers in 87

I am not sure about the Oilers in 85 or the Lakers in 83, I think both Philly teams might have been favorites. And I'm pretty sure the Phillies were favored over Balitmore in 83 as well.

Still, thats a long time for a favorite, going back to at least 1985.

What about the Philadelphia Stars in 85?

Cameron has come off a spoiled child to me lately. I've been getting the feeling that he thinks his Batman action figure is better than everyone else.

Not today though. I thought he did a great job of stepping back and really critiquing the statistics.

"I feel like the Yankees of the NL...odd."

I'm not sure I like being the favorites. It feels odd.

And there's really no "win" here. If you are the World Champions, you just did what you were expected to do, so big deal. If you don't, you're a failure.

Oh well, at least Dave Cameron still thinks the Twins are the team to beat.

giants series if that's what it is, will be a good one. probably 6 games or so

Of course there's a "win". And you should be happy to even entertain the idea of a "win", given that the franchise has only "won" twice since 1883. Or would that be telling you how to "be" a "proper" "fan"?

That's a very strange sentiment, Heather.

I'm sure nobody views things in such pragmatic terms. Even with the Phillies being the clearly superior team, it takes one standout performance from a Tim Lincecum or a Tim Hudson, and one down performance from an Oswalt or Halladay, and before you know it, your team is down 1-2 or 1-3 in the series.

The Phillies are still the better team, especially over a longer period of time, but this is the playoffs, and the playoffs aren't about being the "best" team, or the "favorites". They are about winning.

And no matter whether the Phils are favorites or underdogs, I'll be equally excited if they were to win the WS again.

In fact, I'd feel almost spoiled. 25 years of now championships, and then 2 in 3 years...what more could a fan ask for??

"GM Amaro Considered Blowing Up 2010 Squad"


Me too, fatalotti, I already feel spoiled. And thrilled.

Heather, aren't you the one who gave up on the Phillies back in the middle of June? Now, you don't like being the favorites?

Your expectations for this team are rather interesting, and apparently very difficult to achieve.

Meh, just musing on the expectations and pitfalls of being a favorite. Feel free to ignore if it makes no sense to you.

""GM Amaro Considered Blowing Up 2010 Squad"


I wish. I'd certainly be much better compensated than I am now.

Sports Illustrated listing Frank Wren and RAJ as the best NL executives of the year.

I guess he must be doing something right, huh?

Whoops, didn't get all of that down before accidentally hitting enter. Anyway, Thank you for jinxing us.

Seriously though, I don't care what the oddsmakers say. We've still got three series to win before we're WFC again (not to mention a Braves series right now), and I for one am not as sure of our abilities against the Giants and their rotation or the Reds and their lineup as most seem to be.

On the other hand, I don't see any of the AL teams taking us other than the Rays.

Oliver, at least concerning the Reds, does it mitigate your trepidation to know that Oswalt is 22-3 lifetime against the Reds, with a sub 3 ERA, and that Cole Hamels is 7-1 with a sub 2 ERA against them?

Also, Halladay and Hamels completely owned the Reds in back to back games in early July.

They are a great offense, but we should handle them.

"Sports Illustrated listing Frank Wren and RAJ as the best NL executives of the year."

Frank Wren, for what? Acquiring Rick Ankiel? Giving up Vasquez for Melke Cabrera? Acquiring Derek Lee?

These were moves with a bit of upside at best, but not "executive of the year" material IMHO.

Maybe he makes the argument a bit better in the article. I'd be interested to read it to see if he makes a good argument that I'm currently not considering.

The sad fact is that any team can beat any other team in a short series and that the best team doesn't always win. See St. Louis Cardinals, circa 2006.

I hereby withdraw betting my house on Dobbs making the roster, pending further review of the rules.

fatalotti: "Sports Illustrated listing Frank Wren and RAJ as the best NL executives of the year.
I guess he must be doing something right, huh?"

As any regular reader of Beerleaguer knows, Pat Gillick is solely responsible for all of the success this team has had. Rube's good moves have been a direct result of Gillick's advice and Rube's mistakes happened when he ignored Gillick's advice.

Get with the program.


Also, this is no way meant to approve of the Frank Wren pick, but just in general, trades are not the be-all, end-all of a GM's duties, and the article discusses some other things that Atlanta has done that has turned them into a 90+ win team this year, that did hold first place in the East for the majority of the season. Let's give some credit where it is due. The Braves a re a good team on a smallish payroll. They obviously must be doing some things well.

The GM, in baseball, is like the quarterback in football. All the great moves get credited to him, and all the bad moves get debited against him. Both ATL and PHL have made some mistakes, but have done some fine work to get the team to the positions they are currently in.

When they hand out "Executive of the Year" are they referring to the "year" starting Spring Training? Opening Day? January 1st?

Clearly they're not referring to the year beginning at the end of any given season, or Rube would have been automatically disqualified for the Cliff Lee fiasco. Therefore, Rube can't take credit for the Halladay move for this current run at Exec of the Year. This is all clearly documented common sense in any Philly area media.

All I know Willard, is that if my GM's "mistakes" result in my team having a top 3 starting pitching triumvirate of Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels, and the best record in the NL after 162 games, then I'd sure like to see what this guy can do when he's not making "mistakes".

Phils are favored by oddmakers? Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.

Who Gives a s**t?

That good for less than WAR, and that's worth.....

Is anyone going to any of these games this weekend? Aside from them being only somewhat relevant to the WC race, it nauseates me to think of the spectacle that will be made for Bobby Cox. I'm sure he'll get a street named after him (which will have a 98% chance of intersecting with a street named "Peachtree") or some such nonsense. Too much ado for a crotchety scum bag.

I guess I shouldn't be surprised though. In ATL, you can kill a man and go on to several Pro Bowls, beat your wife and become a managing "legend." Just don't harm any dogs, because that will get you kicked out of town.

Fat, I agree entirely. Perhaps an Exec of the Year award will help put all of the Cliff Lee nonsense to bed.

Who am I kidding? We won a WS since and we STILL debate the Bobby Abreu trade ad nauseum.

awh: Vegas is smarter than fangraphs and any other sabremetric study - for all sports.

WP: Mistakes are mistakes regardless of the end result. Amaro made enough right moves and got good enough results to deserve a GM of the Year award.

But only an ignoramus would say that means his mistakes weren't mistakes.

Manuel just said Hamels won't start tomorrow. Worley tomorrow... all bullpen Sunday? Halladay, Oswalt, Hamels games 1, 2 and 3 respectively.

Can't make the Padres happy, but it likely won't matter.

Tonights game feels like a...Meh

WP -- What falcon has killed someone and gone on to multiple Pro Bowls?

Charlie says he is concerned about Hamels but will not elaborate, and Dubbe is going to speak to reporters soon.....

Ralph, it wasn't a Falcon. It was Ray Lewis, but the manslaughter (and subsequent trial) were in ATL.

Uh, oh, that doesn't sound good about Cole.

I'd have liked him to get another start to stay sharp, and to have a better outing just prior to the playoffs, too, for what it's worth.

But now I wonder if he's injured...Sure hope not!! I hope that's just the paranoid in me talking silliness.

Agreed clout. Of all of the varying opinions on BL, and all of the shilling/excuses for the front office, I really am yet to see a single poster who states that the Lee debacle wasn't a mistake. It might be the one thing that's unanimous on this site.

The reasons for it will continue to be debated to death, I'm sure, however, even though it was clearly a financial move.

Rube did a hell of a job correcting that mistake, though, I will give him that.

Head cold for Hamels.

At least it's not a sprained uterus. I was concerned.

Zolecki's 2 tweets on Cole from a few minutes ago:

-Worley will start tomorrow. Hamels will start Sunday. Oswalt will follow Hamels out of pen. Dubee said Hamels looked great in bullpen today.

-Dubee said only concern about Hamels is his head cold. Said arm is great.

Does anyone else keep thinking about the Cubs in 2008? They clinched early, coasted through the end of the season, then got bounced in the first round by the Dodgers. And now this rumor about Cole. No wonder I drink.

Head cold? I got all wound up over a head cold? Whoever posted that rumor should be banned. Or mocked.

Or maybe I should calm down and not over-react. Nah. Let the banning begin!

Oh well it was nice while it lasted. 2011 is sure to be a challenge.

Back to the drawing board for the Mets. With the back to school sales over, I'm sure they can get a good deal on pencil sharpeners at the Dollar Tree.

Cole and Oz splitting Sunday's game sounds good to me, probably 50-60 pitches each. Better than a long layoff. The pen will get their work in tonite and tomorrow.

@Willard Preacher:

The Lee "debacle" was not a mistake.

The front office, for reasons that they did not disclose to the public, did not feel that it was possible to both to keep Lee and to obtain Halladay, and chose to obtain Halladay, the better pitcher of the two, and the one that was available for three years rather than just one. If we assume that they actually know things we don't -- and I can't see a single reason why we should not assume that that's so -- then it was the CORRECT decision.

No, it's not unanimous, and never has been.

Tossing Lee to the curb and getting Oswalt and Halladay was a pretty big win for Rube. The only negative was the crappy prospects we got in return.

He said that NPR is trying to attract an younger audience and has succeeded “not because of a content shift but because they made it easier for a younger audience to connect to content on their terms! The secret was in the flexibility of the new connection NOT the content.” They used social media and mobile apps to achieve this connection.

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