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Monday, November 15, 2010


typo alert: Conreras is actually a soon-to-be 64 years old, not 39.

I remember when his mother came to visit last year. She was no younger than 75, perhaps as old as 90. As for that, I imagine her son may challenge Jamie Moyer for seniority.

I like the Big Truck. He still throws hard. Even when the "forkball" isn't working, he has a plus slider. He throws as hard as Madson.

to add to the Moyer convo, pretty funny that b-ref just did the following blog post:

Bill James' "Cheap Wins" since 1920

He determines a cheap W to be a game where the starter's game score is below 50 but still is given the W.

Obviously longevity is on the most common bond of pitchers on the list, but not surprised to see Moyer with most cheapies in baseball history.

Going back to the last post, people seemed generally in favor of Sandberg. I have no idea how he is or isn't as a manager, so I can't really comment on that.

But I just wanted to bring up that I've seen in multiple places that baseball people thought poorly of Sandberg's decision to quit with the Cubs when he wasn't given the big league job after four years in their minor-league system as a manager. It was taken as a sign of disrespect to all the people who had put in far more time than that. Why would Sandberg think he was entitled to the job after just four years in the minors?

Charlie Manuel, for instance, managed for nine years in the minors and added on seven more as a hitting coach before being given a big-league managerial job.

Also, Clout noted that the Phillies will pay their 4th starter more this year than they paid Moyer.

Of course, the Phillies will be highly disappointed if they get the same performance out of Blanton that they received from Moyer. For an extra $1.5M, the Phillies are expecting to receive close to a full run less ERA from Blanton over Moyer, you would think.

Kinda embarassed, as I usually pride myself on this stuff but:

I was watching MLB Network's 75 Greatest Catches of all time. I predicted either Pete Rose or Aaron Rowand would be the highest Phillie(Rowand @ #18, Rose in the #50s), but I was wrong.

Tony Barron was at #7 with a pretty ridiculous catch in RF, an extremely full speed and fully extended dive with an equally bruising landing on the Vet turf.

I was more jaw dropped that I never even heard of Tony Barron and never remembered the catch in the slightest. Where the hell was I? Anyone else recall it?

Jack: I think the situation is slightly different since Sandberg was so closely aligned with the Cubs over his career.

What baseball people have questioned his move?

Jack - Yeah the Phils will really be disappointed if Blanton is sporting an ERA aorund 5 next year. Given the trend we have seen among offensive numbers in the NL (and my bet is that things bottomed out this year), a starting pitcher with an ERA of 5 next year will place him among the ten worst starters in the NL out of about 55-60 qualified pitchers.

Clout is really pushing it to say the Phils got decent value for Moyer on his contract.

Now that the LOOGY rumors commence . . .

Quite a few HoF names on that Cheap Wins list.

I think the most important thing to remember is that, in all likelihood, our relief corps isn't going to be heavily taxed next year. With that in mind, giving a guy like Contreras two years isn't overly risky.

Two years is one year too long for Contreras. Rube Jr. is once again giving an old player too many years. And a third year option?

This is the definition of foolishly throwing away millions of dollars. There is no other team that would give Contreras more than one year. And a smart businessman never bids against himself. What are they teaching at the Harvard of the West these days?

Ooh, another thread where Jack and clout are spiting back and forth.

Is it April yet?

"There is no other team that would give Contreras more than one year."

And you know this how?

edmundo - He doesn't. There were a number of relievers who signed 2-yr deals last year including Baez, Betancourt, Gonzalez, Grabow, Hawkins, Igarashi, and Velarde.

It isn't improbable that there was another team offered him a guaranteed 2nd yr (or would have) although I do imagine it would have been a pretty limited market.

ak: its a team option for 3rd year.

GMs should try to get every single contract they sign a team option year at the end. Maybe not in big truck's case, but sometimes it'd be worth giving a guy 1 more additional year in exchange for a team option afterwards so you could keep them on your terms if desired.

Thumbs up for this one, plus Jose is another short term closer option. I saw rumors of Takahashi to the Phils. I think he would round out the bullpen nicely. Lidge, Madson, Contreras, Takahashi, Bastardo and TBD. I can live with that. - I was actually at the Tony Barron game. It was against the Cards on the night they announced the McGwire trade a few minutes before gametime. I want to say Schilling was on the mound, and it was around the 6th or 7th inning. The game was delayed for a few minutes because Barron was DOWN after that catch. Definitely the best I've ever seen in person.

Two years for Contreras is 1 year too many, & essentially guarantees the Phillies will be wasting a roster spot on Baez, no matter how badly he sucks, for the duration of the '11 season. I give this signing a resounding "Meh".

I'm very glad to see Big Truck back!

85: nice memory.

Altho the catch was very very good by itself, the wreckless crash on the turf was just as much reason for it being named one of the best catches ever.

Correct, the highlight showed the at bat and it was def Schilling. Ball was scalded on a line too, not a hump back that some acrobatic catches are made on.

Is it wishful thinking to expect Baez to bounce back next season?

I'd like to see the market for 39? year old middle inning relievers getting two year contracts, especially at that kind of money.

And the third year option is not a plus. It merely means Contreras will be getting money in a buyout. It may not be much, but it's more than it needs to be.

If Rube is working with the Yankees' budget, I see no problem throwing a few million around here and there. But he's not. This signing will have real consequences.

Didn't seem like much money when Rube gave similar dollars to Baez last year. But add that to Blanton's contract and that was what Lee was paid last season. And they simply HAD to dump Lee for payroll considerations right? Because we certainly know it wasn't for the A list prospects they got in return.

And I'd much rather bring back Contreras, even on this deal, than Durbin, who was really awful the second half of last year, but somehow flew under the radar.

So, on the whole, I like Contreras coming back. But the dollars are wasteful. Better to let both Contreras and Durbin go and go dumpster diving/minor league hunting.

5.5? Sheesh. I hope that extra .5 is just the third year buyout. Because there is no way in the world they pick up the third year.

****Is it wishful thinking to expect Baez to bounce back next season? ****


I always felt comfortable seeing Contreras come into a game. I can't say the same about when Lidge was the man coming in. Lidge finished strong, so I will eat humble pie on feeling queasy whenever he warmed up. I think it is a good signing. The extra year isn't big money like the extra year's cost for old guys like Moyer or Ibanez.

Does anyone know how the contract breaks down? And Yes 2 years is one too many.

I totally agree with the 2 year comments. There are plenty of relievers out there and maybe you might even get lucky and get a young kid that could be around for awhile or develop into a 4th or 5th starter. Think that we need to trade Kendrick for substantial RH hitter (starting left fielder) and put Ibanez on bench. What about Uribe for utility man and bench?

It's funny how many posters seem to think that other GMs will discern enormous trade value in precisely the same guys who we all think suck. Here's a good rule of thumb: if you find yourself totally indifferent to the thought of losing a particular player, then that player has no trade value whatsoever.

Applying this rule of thuumb to recent discussion threads, I think we can readily discount the idea that any major league GM would give up a "substantial RH" corner outfielder for Kyle Kendrick, or that a package of 3 failed prospects would land us Dan Uggla.

Right, trade Kendrick for a "substantial RH hitter" who can start in LF.

Even Clout would admit that KK will bring back nowhere close to that in a trade.

Yeah but if we throw in Mathieson and Rizzotti, we should get Matt Kemp, right?

We've worked the entire discussion back to Cliff Lee.

Everyone needs to chip in 5 dollars so we can hire a psychiatrist to have us sit in a chat room and discuss our jilted lover syndrome.

Contreras' contract is described in news reports as incentive-laden. If he achieves certain results, does he make more than $5.5 million and/or does the third year vest? Just curious.

From MLBTradeRumors:

ESPN's Buster Olney tweets that some clubs "perceive the Marlins are absolutely intent on moving Uggla ASAP, and they are not asking for a high rate of return -- a couple of decent guys, no A-plus prospects necessary."


Kendrick, Francisco and Matheison may get the job done.

Who's to say. We may have traded higher quality talent to get Blanton than we did to get Lee, so stranger things have happened.

Well, if Buster Olney says it's true, it must be true.

He's got as much clout as the nameless, faceless, unknown individuals who fill the comment sections of blogs.

No comment on whether or not there's any validity behind the statement, but an individual with more access to people who might know this sort of thing has attached his name to it and put it out there, so I pass it on.

I think many of you have overvalued what a year rental of a poor defender with 30-35 HR potential will bring in trade. I'm going to go on record to say that if he is traded, whoever is on the other end of the deal will probably not have to give up anyone they'll miss.

If he had a team option for 2012, maybe, but for one season, he's just not worth all that much to anyone in position to contend, and he's unnecessary for 2011 to those who are not realistic contenders.

Uggla gets sold cheap this winter.

I got over Cliff Lee the day Roy O arrived.

Obviously something like KK and change wouldn't get it done, but yes, I generally think Uggla will go for less than what Clout is predicting.

In recent years, there has been a change in how players are valued in trades, and, today, we sometimes over-value star players who are in their prime. Not too many years ago, these star players had a ton of trade value. Today, not so much.

Nowadays, players like Posey, Heyward and Stanton probably have the most trade value because they will be paid substantially less than their expected production value until they hit free agency several years out (after 2015 or 2016). Players like Howard, Holliday, and Sabathia do not have so much trade value because their contracts equal or exceed their expected production value, particularly in the latter years of their long-term contracts.

Although Uggla has been a consistent 30-HR guy in the five years he has been in the majors, his trade value probably is not so great as we would have guessed for a similar player five or ten years ago. The reason is that he probably will be paid $10-12 million in 2011 (still a bargain), but then he will be a free agent and no longer a bargain.

I don't think the Marlins will get much for Uggla, but certainly more than the likes of Kendrick (who we may non-tender), Mathieson, Mayberry, etc.

And, no, I don't think Savery, Galvis and Rizzotti for Greinke works either.

Back for more abuse. I guess I should have said "serviceable" outfielder. Prior to WS would you have traded KK or Blanton for Cody Ross? There are few teams that have enough pitching! Maybe we could get it done with Astros!

Uggla could be moved for a cheap price, but KK has zero trade value, so he brings back nothing. Even is you coupled him with Ben Fran and a prospect, that probably doesn't get you Uggla, whom I'd love to have.

But there are other reasons why he won't be here. 1. Why would he be traded within his own division? and 2. What would it take to sign him long-term?

For posters mentioning trading for Uggla, what do you plan no doing with him, platooning in LF?

I think the Phils are going to use Uggla at DH.

We are an American League team, right?


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