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Tuesday, March 15, 2011

Comments

From last thread...

Who needs a bullpen? We're going to have complete games about 75% of the time from our staff.

I think Young is close to locking up that final roster spot. I think Barfield is the first choice if Utley starts on the DL with one big exception...

IF the Phils want to see their Rule 5 pick, Barfield will get sent down and Martinez will start on the roster. Gelb reported Barfield's out clause kicks in in May. That would give the Phils a month to see what Martinez has to offer.

If the Phils really want to keep Martinez they should work out a deal with the Nationals.

Martinez shouldn't have a place on the roster the entire season regardless of who is injured.

BTW: I'm assuming Utz starts on the DL.

AWH - From last thread. I still don't understand the breakdown of Vic's PAs. What you posted has him over 1000 PAs.

CJ: I assume you're being sarcastic?

JW: Do you really think there's any chance that Zagurski makes the roster over Bastardo, if he's healthy?

Jack: About Martinez... or about that 75% complete game rate ;-)

CJ: About the complete games. I assumed so, but you never know with the irrational optimism on here sometimes.

As for Martinez, why bother giving him a month to show what he can do? I can tell you right now: nothing.

Send Martinez back. Just so I don't have to sit through another season of having the Rule 5 rules explained to me every time he bats.

Jack: I'll just say this... we're a couple weeks into spring training and have only gotten a limited view of Martinez. The coaches know a lot more than we do. I don't think he's done enough to earn a spot yet, but I'm not sure there's enough to evaluate yet, either.

CJ: What that tells me is that the coaches don't think he's making the team anyway. They'd rather evaluate Barfield and Young.

CJ: Have a link for Gelb's Barfield out clause info?

Jack: Depends if he's pitching with the hotter hand. Bastardo has better stuff, but the Phillies always seem to think he needs more work.

Scotch - I think he needs to clear waivers before we can send him back. So, like, the Mets could pick him up. I don't think he needs to clear waivers if we make a deal with Washington. I'll get the complete rules up for you the next time he bats.

Here's the Matt Gelb article.

Key section:

"Because of his Rule 5 status, Michael Martinez could make this team. He can play a bunch of positions, he has speed and decent defense. But he hasn't shown too much at the plate to suggest he's anything more than a singles hitter. It could come down to Josh Barfield vs. Martinez and the Rule 5 status will weigh heavily in Martinez's favor.

Why? The Phillies could send Barfield, who has an out clause sometime in May, to triple A for the first month. That will give them a longer look at Martinez and when Barfield's chance to leave comes up, the Phillies can decide who they'd rather have. Basically, it offers a delayed date to make a decision.

Then again, Barfield's bat may be too good to overlook."

What is Martinez's upside? He's got good speed but not great speed. He plays alot of positions but supposedly isn't above average at a single on.

It would be a huge mistake to keep him on the roster all year as a Rule 5 type pick. Can't afford on a 5-man bench and with a manager who likes to use his bench frequently.

Phils take a 1-0 lead on another RBI double from Howard.

MG: I agree. I don't see the upside yet. His glove hasn't been great. His bat has been worse. Versatility alone isn't enough... particularly when guys like Valdez, Barfield and Young are also showcasing versatility.

The ONLY thing it seems Martinez offers that Barfield and Young don't is CF.

Noted slugger Rajai Davis goes yard for a leadoff homer vs. Blanton. Game is tied.

I don't really see Barfield's upside either. I'd rather see that 25th roster spot go to some 2nd or 3rd baseman not presently on the roster. Even a potential waiver wire guy like Luis Castillo has a lot more upside than Barfield.

Long first inning... after the lead off HR, Blanton struck out the next two hitters, then a line drive single up the middle then an infield hit to third, bad throw let the runner get to third.

SStache, 1) you still haven't referenced the quotes you made (up), and b) go check www.baseball-reference.com and check Vic's splits out yourself.

If you weren't so lazy and did your own homework before you posted, you wouldn't make silly statements like you made in the last thread.

And another line drive single brings home a 2nd run for Toronto.

Apologize if this discussion has occurred elsewhere (just refer me back to it), but having Polanco bat 5th is not what I expected. I figured it would be either Rollins or Victorino. With Utley out I could see Polanco batting 3rd.

This idea is growing on me though. Rollins wants to be lead off and any mental advantage that gives his hitting is needed. It (hopefully) forces Victorino to be an onbase/speed guy, rather than a run producer. Ibanez is not going to change his swing/approach batting 3rd but will have Howard "protection" behind him. Plus Ibanez did well hitting 3rd with Utley out last season.

Though Polanco is not a HR threat and does not walk, maybe he can knock in the runs Howard leaves out there due to K and BB. Polanco is also unlikely to change his approach, though the hit&run option is lost with Howard or Ibanez at first.

Polanco there is almost like my argument to move Ruiz up the 5th spot as a contact hitter with a decent eye. However, he seems to do well getting on base in front of the pitcher.

Blanton's 1st inning troubles are tiresome. I can live with a guy who often struggles at the start but settles down & gives you 7 or 8 strong innings. But Blanton generally struggles at the start and is gassed by the 6th.

bap: Luis Castillo is preferable to Josh Barfield? I just can't see it. Castillo is pretty worthless at the plate and in the field these days... and can't run much either. I'd take Martinez over Castillo!!!

And the inning finally ends... Blanton faced 7 hitters, 4 hits, 2 left on, 2 Ks.

Polanco exiting the game... may have pulled something in his side during a first inning swing. No official word.

AWH - You mean these splits

http://espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?playerId=5409

Notice the total ABs being 587

Maybe you can help me with this math then:

SStache, I agree with much of what you post, but this type of stuff just drives me crazy, especially when I've posted this info on this site within the last 2 weeks:

"Vic when batting leadoff in 2010:

.276/.345/.466, 386 PA

NL Average for 1-hole hitter in 2010:

.261/.328/.398, 12,076 PA


Shane did just fine in the leadoff spot when Jimmy was out. His failures were when he hit lower in the order with no RISP.

Vic in 2010 with RISP:

.285/.373/.496, 142 PA

With men on:

.289/.379/.513, 227 PA

No one on base:

.244 .299 .387, 421 PA"

As for the quotes

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/617711-rollins-or-victorino-who-will-lead-off-for-the-2011-philadelphia-phillies

http://fantasybaseballhotstove.blogspot.com/2011/01/shane-victorino-player-projection-no-65.html

If Martinez had "decent" defense like Gelb explains then he probably would have a shot.

But from watching this spring and just overall reports on him, his defense is not decent at all.

Stache: for awh's splits, only total:

With Men on(227) / No one on(421)

Men On and RISP have shared PA, and his leadoff splits are comprised of all his leadoff PA - both with men on and bases empty.

Don't we already have a Michael Martinez-Wilson Valdez?

CJ: I assume that awh will now make a snarky comment about how Polanco is too young to have an age-related injury...oh, wait.

I'm totally expecting Polanco to be this year's Ibanez. Same contract situation: an older guy in Year 2 of a 3-year deal that was one year too long. Same type of performance in Year 1: a blazing hot start followed by a slow fade. Same oft-cited injury explanation for his 2nd half fade. And now, same bad spring training as Ibanez had last year.

If the parallel continues, Polanco's bad spring will carry over to the first half of the regular season, leading to the predictable Beerleaguer arguments about whether he's washed up or whether the law of averages will eventually take hold. And, as with Ibanez last year, the eventual answer will probably lie somewhere in between these two sides. The law of averages WILL catch up & he'll eventually get hot, but his end-of-the year numbers will still fall short of his 2010 numbers.

Bed Beard: We do... when Chase is healthy. The concern must be while Chase is hurt.

Polanco = Age-related injury

Iorecore - That's what I asked in the last thread. The way it's written makes it seem like the 421 PAs with no one on were when he hit in the bottom of the lineup.

If you look at his splits, with no one on and leading off an inning, I think he stays in the bottom half of the lineup.

But that wasn't even the what I was posting about anyway. I was saying MadDog would perform better as the closer if he was named the closer in ST instead of being juggled around like he was the last 2 years, and like Vic was last year...

And that sent AWH into a stat war

Lead off hits for Gload and Francisco, then K's from Ruiz and Barfield followed by a shot to the gap from J-Roll that was run down by Davis. 2-1 Jays.

right, b/c the answer is to have another garbagey player on the roster.

Jack is correct re: Mini-Mart. The reason he ain't playing is he ain't making the team.

Jason Heyward Age-Related Injury Update:

http://www.rotoworld.com/headlines/mlb/314996/baseball-headlines?r=1

Held out of a third straight game.

CJ: Being better than Barfield doesn't take much doing although, if Castillo hits .235 again, he would probably fall short.

But, since he also hit .302 in 486 ABS in 2009, I'm guessing that the real Luis Castillo probably hits somewhere between .235 and .302 -- say, around .265 or .270. Add in a high walk percentage, and you've got a guy with a .350-ish OBP, who can still steal a base. Those skill sets, alone, would make him better than Barfield.

So what's David Bell up to these days?

SStache, you wrote this:


"Kind of the way JRo is holding on to the leadoff spot and Vic being hit or miss when asked to hit leadoff during the times JRo is injured."


Based on Victorino's performance last year when he hit in the 1-hole, is that an accurate statement?

JW: "Jack: Depends if he's pitching with the hotter hand. Bastardo has better stuff, but the Phillies always seem to think he needs more work."

While Jack is constantly citing Bastardo's MLB K/9 to support his contention that he's a great prospect, it's worth noting a couple stats Jack never cites: Bastardo's H/9 of 9.6 and his HR/9 of 1.1.

How can a guy with great stuff have numbers that high? Simple: Command. He has yet to show consistent command of his pitches within the strike zone at the major league level.

Will he ever show it? Jack doesn't even acknowledge it's a problem.

I say, he's young enough to master it, but it's far from a sure thing.

Hyper-extended left elbow for Polanco. Team says it has nothing to do with his surgery. I'll leave it at that.

Hyperextended left elbow for Polanco. Removed for precautionary reasons. That's according to the team release.

What is the average time missed from a hyperextended elbow?

Is it a day to day thing?

Vic walks and Ibanez goes yard. 3-2 Phillies.

Clout: So you think Zagurski has a chance of making the roster over Bastardo too?

awh: Everyone gets that young players get injured too. Everyone also gets that, even when an older player gets injured, there's no way to know whether age had anything to do with the injury. But, speaking in general terms, don't you think it's fair to say that older players tend to get injured more & take longer to recover?

what does polanco need his "elbow" for anyway?

The simplest form of treatment for a hyperextended elbow is simply to give the joint time to heal. If you have a very mild injury, then you will not need a sling or therapy. The damage should be healed in a few days, and after this time you will be able to resume your usual activities with no lasting ill effects. More severe injuries will heal in three weeks to a month.

Read more: Elbow Hyperextended Treatment | eHow.com http://www.ehow.com/about_5201107_elbow-hyperextended-treatment.html#ixzz1GgxS24Xx

So, anywhere from a few days to a month depending on severity.

bap: I'd suggest Barfield is at least as much of a stolen base threat as Castillo. Castillo's speed and mobility have been sapped by age and injury. Barfield is 8 years younger and has stolen 20 in his career.

***Luis Castillo is preferable to Josh Barfield? I just can't see it. Castillo is pretty worthless at the plate and in the field these days... and can't run much either. I'd take Martinez over Castillo!!!***

He's having a pretty good spring FWIW. He's worth a look at the league minimum. Also, some guys do better on winning clubs like the Phillies as opposed to trainwrecks like the Mets.

Castillo is having such a good spring his manager says he doesn't want him on the roster.

And their alternatives are terrible.

Just sayin'.

AWH - Like I said, it's the impression I got from WATCHING him play last year. He didn't look comfortable in the leadoff spot. Like he was trying to do too much. Which is the analogy I was making with MadDog. He didn't look comfortable in the closer spot. He had prepared himself as the setup man, and when he had to fill in he didn't look the same.

I think MadDog would benefit from being named the closer in ST and subsequently perform better knowing his role. He is also in the last year of his contract and in all likely hood the closer next year anyway. Let's see how he handles it this year since the opportunity is there with Lidge's bicep.

But I think I said that already

What's accurate about an opinion? Do you stats keep you warm at night?

CJ, he hates him due to clubhouse concerns in NY, not due to his Spring effort. I'm guessing Castillo has burned that bridge pretty thoroughly.

Like I said, its worth a look at the league minimum (all he'd be getting) as we hvae serious infield concerns with Uts down and now Polly hurting.

So a 35-year old clubhouse cancer who can only play second base and plays it poorly, who's got adequate speed at best and has spent time on the DL every season since 2004... and has had an OPS+ under 80 in two of the last 3 years.

Sign me up for Luis Castillo!!!

bap, yes. I have already acknowledged that....several times.

Older players are also at a greater risk of reinjuring or re-aggravating previous injuries (the #1 indicator), as they are more likely to have had injuries - even nagging ones - accumulate during their careers.

That still is not to say that EVERY injury experienced by an older player is age related.

BTW, what is the cutoff age that makes someone an "older" player?

BAP: i see some similarities but c'mon - polly came nowhere close Ibanez's first half as a phillie.

Raul 09 1st half: .309/.367/.649
Polly 10 1st half: .318/.349/.433

Ibanez was pretty much the league MVP at the break.

Also, I'm glad Ibanez's contract is "1 year too long" considering he's the second best offensive player on the roster this season with Utley out.

Worth a look regardless. Our options are pretty limited as there is apparently no cash to spend and we've now got 2 key infielders out.

Crappy way to start the year. Nobody wants to see an opening day with Delwyn Young and Wilson Valdez as starters.

Here's a snapshot of some other pretty good lefty relievers and their HR/9 in their first two years as relievers, just for fun:

Matt Thornton: 1.5
Brian Fuentes: 1.4
J.C. Romero: 1.3
Arthur Rhodes: 1.3
Scott Downs: 1.1
Antonio Bastardo: 1.1
Billy Wagner: 0.8

Blanton through three: 5 H, 2 ER, 2 K, 0 BB

"Do you stats keep you warm at night?"

Haha, SStache, good one. But I could ask the same thing about opinions, no?

NEPP: And I don't want to see Castillo as a starter. I'd take Valdez and Young over Castillo.

This is a guy who refused to take infield practice one day this spring because he was scheduled to be the DH.

This is a guy who has sulked his way through season after season because he's not an every day starter.

Why would we add him to our bench???

awh: "Older" status kicks in at 33 years, 4 months, and 27 days. "Old" status kicks in at 35 years, 8 months, and 11 days.

Hell, if he doesnt work out or there are any issues, you just cut him loose. The cost is minimal. Maybe being on a winner will motivate him.

Our options are really crappy right now.

Rollins singles and Victorino doubles off the top of the wall. 2nd and 3rd, 1 out, pitching change.

Delwyn Young 2009-2010 OPS+: 88
Placido Polanco 2009-2010 OPS+: 92

Just sayin'.

"Ibanez was pretty much the league MVP at the break."

lorecore, this is true and people have short memories.

This was Raul pre-DL trip 2009:

.312/.371/.656

BAP - I agree with your comment on Blanton you wrote a while back on this thread. I don't understand his constant first inning difficulties which put the Phillies in a hole when he's on the mound, his settling down for innings 2-5, and then the re-emergence of troubles in the 6th turning the game over to the front end of the bullpen. The pattern gets a bit old after a while.

NEPP: And let's not go all doom and gloom on Polanco. You have no idea how serious of an injury it is.

Speed kills: Catcher throws behind J-Roll, throw goes down the LF line, both J-Roll and Victorino score on the thorwing error, Vic all the way from 2nd. 5-2 Phils.

bap - If Polanco's offensive numbers fall short of his 2010 numbers, he will a really empty .270-.280. An OPS of ~.700 stinks at 3B no matter what way you slice it.

Blanton now has a ST ERA of 3.62, FWIW (not much, really).

Is he going to have a rebound year like 2005 or 2007?

That would go a long way to helping mitigate some of the other injury and RPG concerns.

Opps, Balneon's ST ERA is 3.62.

Oops, Blanton's ST ERA is 3.68.

Blanton has thrown 22 pitches in teh first 3 innings, with 20 strikes.

Is that an indication that he's working on something...pounding the strike zone?

Nepp: don't worry once the phillies give castillo a deal CJ will be 100% behind it but until then he is worthless

awh: Where is that pitch count from? Gameday is unreliable in spring training.

lorecore: You don't know me very well, do you?

awh: No, it means that Gamecast doesn't count all the pitches in ST.

Thanks, Jack. It seemed the B/S ratio was way off for Joe.

Single and an error puts two men on in the 4th, then a check swing roller is mishandled by Ruiz, but it's scored an infield single (fast runner, tough play either way). Bases loaded, 2 outs.

Blanton gets out of the inning on a force out. Through 4: 7 H, 3 K, 0 BB, 2 ER. He's likely done for the day.

Ben Francisco goes yard. It's his third hit of the game. 6-2 Phils.

Sounds like that Yoga is paying off for J-Roll.

I can only hope this is not a mirage of Ben Francisco. If he can keep up this pace into the season everyone will quickly forget about Werth if they haven't already.

Bench emptied... Orr, Schneider, Young all in the game for Barfield, Ruiz and Francisco.

Danys Baez ALERT!

Should not of kept Worth?

Apparently, the imposter who was wearing the Danys Baez suit has left town. The real Danys Baez is back.

Baez gets through his inning... 1 H, 2 BB, 1 ER. I think that's 4 BBs in his last two outings.

And with an inning-ending DP, he saves himself from the potential shellacking that many Beerleaguers were secretly rooting for.

Martinez in the game... replaced Vic. That's been the recent trend with him. Late game replacement in CF. He's not getting nearly as many looks as Barfield or Young, particularly early and particularly at 2B.

BAP: "I'm totally expecting Polanco to be this year's Ibanez."

So you're predicting a .793 OPS from Polly this season?

Interesting.

Jack: Why do you use OPS+ sometimes and WAR other times depending on which supports your biases?

bap: Secretly rooting for? I'm openly rooting for it.

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