Out-pitches: Gavin Floyd's curveball

A lot of Gavin Floyd's success is tied to his curveball, but he threw it much less in 2010 than previous years.

In a 2004 scouting report, Floyd's curveball was described as "one of the best breaking pitches in the minor leagues." From 2008-2010, that description materialized into Floyd having the sixth-best curveball in baseball since he cemented his place in the White Sox rotation.

But oddly, Floyd threw fewer curveballs in 2010—and had a fine season. After 18 percent of his pitches in 2008 and 2009 were curveballs, he threw curves on just 15 percent of his pitches in 2010. His FIP last season was a career-best 3.46, as compared to 3.77 in 2009 and 4.77 in 2008. Floyd's 4.3 WAR shouldn't be read as worse than his 2009 WAR of 4.6—remember, WAR is more of a blunt hammer than precise chisel.

Trying to decipher why Floyd threw fewer curveballs is the real question, though. Luckily, FanGraphs provides heat maps that offer us a clue:

Images via FanGraphs

Floyd likes to stay away from lefties and righties with his curveball—not an earth-shattering conclusion—but he missed a lot over the plate with his curveball in 2010. Compare that to his 2009 curveball heat maps, and it makes sense why he threw it less last season:

All those pitches on the middle and inner third of the plate explain why Floyd's curveball was less effective in 2010 (0.85 w/RC to 2.69 w/RC in '09) and why, in turn, he threw it less. In turn, Floyd threw his cutter with greater effectiveness, leading to the level of success he enjoyed last season.

What's encouraging is that Floyd hasn't just lost the ability to throw his curveball at an elite level. His success with the curveball is tied to his command of it—and even when he doesn't have pinpoint command (like 2010) it's still an effective pitch.

So maybe that opening sentence should read differently: Gavin Floyd's curveball is the pitch that could separate him from being a very good pitcher and a potentially-elite pitcher. If Floyd can throw his curveball like it's 2009 and still command his cutter, fastball, slider and changeup as well as he did in 2010, he could turn in a season worthy of ace status.

Comments

[Evil Andy]

Floyd is definitely the man.
What scouting system had the geniuses that drafted him? Must be a dynamite team if they can trade away talent like this (for no account jerks no less with a toss-in who will be a mid-rotation left-handed starting pitcher any day now).

[JJ -- White Sox Beerleaguer]

For the record, the Sox have traded for Gio Gonzalez once and dealt him twice. He has an odd history with the organization.

[Gumphot]

Its not so much control (which does need work) that he needs to work on, but reahtr his command. What is clear when comparing AJ v. Mo is that Mo is excellent at being just enough out of the strike zone with two strikes to ensure either weak contact or a strikeout, whereas AJ just seems to be trying to stay alive. This is probably also a product of the fact that AJ tends to have 2 balls or more by the time he reaches 2 strikes in the count a sure sign of what we already know, AJ does not command his fastball well. In particular look at his 2 strike location on lefties. He has to be getting killed puttin the ball in the middle to inner half of the plate. As a rule lefties live for that pitch and to give it to them on two strikes is a get out of jail free card. I tend to think this is where the change in curveball effectiveness is showing. That is his out pitch so it is likely he's throwing many of them to try to finish off a hitter. That big red line in the middle of the plate is a sure sign that he's hanging many more of them (also falls in line with the high pitch theory noted by Brian). Without that curveball AJ goes from being a talented enigma on the mound capable of dominant stretches to your average 20 year old AA pitcher throwing 95. Good stuff on the heat charts. I actually prefer that to the spray charts of pitch fx. You guys need to get Brian on board for more appearances here.