Sunday chat: Phillies seek revenge this afternoon

Kyle Kendrick (8-3, 4.58) toes the rubber when the Phils try to put yesterday's bullpen meltdown behind them against Oliver Perez (6-5, 4.98) and the Mets. First pitch is 1:35.

After holding the Mets scoreless through 4 1-3 frames in Friday's tight win, the Phils 'pen imploded for six earned runs in 2 1-3 innings in last night’s 9-4 loss. Main offenders: J.C. Romero and Tom Gordon, who combined to allow three runs in the eighth after the Phils had taken a one-run lead. Phillie-killer Brian Schneider delivered the critical go-ahead blow, a two-run pinch double off Gordon. Rudy Seanez would then allow three runs in the ninth.

With the win, the Mets climb back to 4.5 games behind Philadelphia in the National League East. The Phillies still lead Florida by 3.5 games.

Beerleaguer: It's difficult to pick on this usually excellent pen, but if one were to find fault, it would be their overall performance with inherited runners, the lack of a second left-hander, then the individual performance of certain players. Romero hasn’t been as sharp as last season and is starting to fall behind hitters with regularity. Gordon, who pitched only a handful of times in June, could be hitting that midseason wall. As for Seanez, he pitched even less than Gordon last month, only five times. His 18/16 K/BB represents a major drop from last season’s 73/27, and between Seanez and Gordon, Manuel appears to be shielding two veteran right-handers from overuse. Keep an eye on that. It’s been so-far, so-good with the starting rotation, but if they start getting some short starts from, say, Adam Eaton and J.A. Happ, they’ll start getting stretched thin. As the deadline approaches, additional bullpen help is a definite option.

Comments

[flipper]

re-posted rom previous thread:

Clout:

Even if you have to play Werth in center and Jenkins in right, mixing in Dobbs now and then, I think it would be worth getting Sabathia. Of course, the possibility of getting a good defensive CF, like Lofton, would help.

Again, I'm thinking that with another top of the line starter - even with a diminished lineup - they'd still make the post-season and be better situated for a shortened playoff rotation where pitching becomes more of premium.

Don't get me wrong, I love Vic, and think that although he hasn't really performed that well this year, his potential as a spark plug to the offense is huge. But getting another 1 or 2 is the biggest need (IMO, way more than bolstering the bullpen, given that the shakiness of the Lidge Bridge notwithstanding, having a strong closer behind Hamels and Sabathia would put us in pretty good shape).

[flipper]

Sophist:

To pick up on a topic from a couple of threads back -- I don't know what the protocol here is on off-topic comments - not intending to piss anyone off (well, except maybe clout), but,

Given that Burrell's win shares this year are on at a rate that will match his career best (26 in 2005), and that in 2004, 06, and 07 he didn't break 20 - I'd say this year notwithstanding, my assessment that he doesn't have a history of being a particularly "clutch" hitter is supported by the win share stat. Just a cursory skim through a bunch of top players in that category shows that elite hitters can average better than Burell's career best - and that there are quite a few hitters that have a higher career average in that stat then Burrell.

That said, again, I'm not Feliz to him as a hitter. There is no comparison. And I'm saying that this year he's having a very solid year in coming up with hits at pivotal points of games.

[Inside/Outside the Parker]

Re-Posted:

I have a couple of reality based issues with this proposed Sabathia trade (at least the one listed on here):

1.) Victorino included: Why? What does Cleveland need with a CF? Last I checked, they have maybe the best defensive CF in baseball who happens to be leading the AL in HR. What are they going to make him a RF? LF? Bench guy? Vic makes no sense in a trade to Cleveland IMO.
2.) If any trade for Sabathia is made (with or without Vic), Happ will not be in the rotation. There is 0 chance that the Phillies will go with 4 LH starters in the rotation (Hamels, Sabathia, Moyer, Happ). No way that is Happ-ening. If that trade went down, Myers would almost certainly be rejoining the big club in the near future.

I think Sabathia will be a Brewer or on some big market team in the near future. Happ's continued presence in the rotation is completely dependent on the Phils acquiring a power RH arm.

[vegas]

Lidge brige construction broke down, it's painful to watch because it does'nt happen very often. The bullpen needs another piece, Swindle would have been nice to see last night. Condrey may be wasting valuable space. The night belonged to John Maine regardless, one hit three run shot. I think he would have gone eight if he did'nt cramp up.
The bats will come alive to support KK today.

[WillyFromPhilly]

Anyone know what's going on? One of the message boards has the Phils calling a 'media alert' at 11 am.

[THe DUde]

in case anyone hasn't heard...a 11 am press conference has been announced....has a possibly trade has gone down?

[flipper]

Once again, if this announcement is that they've traded for Sabathia, I promise to not criticize the Phillies front office for a full two weeks. Maybe 2.5.

[Hugh Mulcahy]

I believe tehy'er going to announce that Lidge has been given a long term deal.

[THe Dude]

it can't be Sabathia because no major media outlet has this announced yet. ESPN would be all over it if it were for a major player....maybe its for a LOOGY (Fuentes) and to announce the retirement and flush Gordon down the toilet.

[Jack]

Clout: This quote is wrong- "A trade is only good if there are upgrades and no downgrades".

A trade is good if the upgrade is relatively better than the downgrade. For instance, if the difference between Sabathia in your rotation and Adam Eaton in your rotation is greater than the difference between an outfield of Victorino/Werth and Werth/Jenkins, then it is a successful trade.

Of course, I would rather not see them trade Victorino, as he is an above-average defensive CF, and Werth would probably be only an average at best (and can't hit righties). But to get Sabathia, you do have to give up something.

[Tim]

philly.com says lidge extention

[Jack]

Well, this certainly sends a strong message to Brett Myers: You either get it together as a starter for the rest of this year and next, or you're out of here.

[Inside/Outside the Parker]

If it is a Lidge extension, Bravo!!

[Inside/Outside the Parker]

Does anyone agree that 4 LH is not going to happen? I can't see it. If (big if) they trade for Sabathia, IMO, Myers is going to be back whenever that happens.

If they traded for Burnett (or a power RH) then they could leave Happ in the rotation, and take a "wait and see" approach with Myers.

[BB]

WIP just said that the presser is to announce Lidge contract extension. Nice!

[Bedrosian's Beard]

Nice on doing an in-season Lidge extension! Was hoping it would be a trade annoucement, but this is a good thing.

Off topic: Has there ever been a new thread where someone didn't do a "re post from last thread"?

[Tim]

it's not on comcast?

[THe Dude]

Lidge signing is nice but I think we all knew that was just a matter of time...I don't bout you all but I was hoping more for retirement of Gordon and trade for a pitcher! Honestly almost shot my load when i heard there was a press conference.

[king myno]

Now it's time to work on that Burrell extension.

[Bedrosian's Beard]

"Lidge signing is nice but I think we all knew that was just a matter of time."

I'm not sure that is true. With Myers' situation hovering , I think there was some doubt they wouldn't just do the easy thing-let Lidge walk and move Myers to the pen as closer next year. Once again, the Phils handled this move stealthier (not sure that's a word) than expected. One offseason situation off the table. I don't expect the Burrell situation to be handled as easily.

[ajc1]

"Brad Lidge will be saving games in Philadelphia through at least the 2011 season, after the pitcher agreed to a three-year, $37.5 million contract extension."

Personally, I don't like signing closers for that much, but Lidge might just be worth it.

[Tim]

he was at the table with amaro. gillick just doesn't bother with anything but business.

[bullit]

Looks like Myers will be cryin' in his Lehigh Valley micro-brew now that he ain't gonna be a Philly rock star.

[clout]

Jack: Generally, I would agree with you if you are upgrading one area at the cost of downgrading another and have a broad time perspective. But in this specific case, no. This is a trade that should only be made if it puts the Phillies in the WS. It is a mortgage-your-future trade. And if your only alternative is to upgrade your rotation at the cost of downgrading 2 positions (which is what losing Vic would do since neither Werth nor Jenkins are everyday players) then it is a bad trade and you don't make it.

[clout]

In any event, this Vic talk is moot. As Parker correctly noted, the Indians have no need for Vic.

[Jack]

I think the Indians could, in fact, use Shane Victorino. They've been starting a combination of David Delluci, Franklin Gutierrez and Ben Francisco in their corner outfield spots. Victorino would represent an upgrade in the next couple years over those guys in RF, or would be a valuable trade chip to move again to a team that was in need of a real CF.

[clout]

The Lidge deal works out to better than $12M per year. Here's what's amusing: When Myers was switched to the bullpen last year, a gaggle of posters here said it was terrible, no team should pay a closer $8M a year and OMG it jumps to $12M in '09! $12M for a closer! It's an outrage! Today, of course, not a single peep will be heard about paying $12M per year for a closer.

[clout]

Jack: Vic in the corner would be at or near the bottom of all AL corner outfielders in offense.

[johnnysanz3]

I never quite understood the complaining about paying 12M/year for a closer either. Most the other elite closers got that much money in their contracts recently anyway.

[clout]

johnnysanz: I agree. I never understood any of the griping about salaries here. They go up. They will always go up. What you think is ridiculous today will be more ridiculous tomorrow. Teams either pay up or drop out.

[Billy Mac]

Lineups

Phils
1. J Werth, RF
2. C Utley, 2B
3. J Rollins, SS
4. R Howard, 1B
5. P Burrell, LF
6. P Feliz, 3B
7. S Victorino, CF
8. C Ruiz, C
9. K Kendrick, P

Mets
1. J Reyes, SS
2. E Chavez, RF
3. D Wright, 3B
4. C Beltran, CF
5. C Delgado, 1B
6. D Easley, 2B
7. M Anderson, LF
8. B Schneider, C
9. O Perez, P

[Tim]

clout you mean no peep other than the one three posts above yours right? haha

anyway krod will break the record for a closer when he signs his next deal. this will be a below market value deal by next season.

[Tim]

and why is everybody talking like the cc deal would exist in a vacuum? they are aloud to make more than one trade you know. they could replace vics production with no problem - not his arm though.

[Jack]

Clout: Yes, in terms of offensive production, Victorino would be near the bottom for AL right-fielders. But the Indians are starting Franklin Gutierrez out there most games, who is worse than Victorino. Victorino would represent an upgrade in terms of defense, baserunning, and amazing, overall offense.

[clout]

Jack: If you indeed believe that Gutierrez current numbers reflect his ability and potential, you'd be right. But they don't. He's 25 and in only his second full year. His numbers will be considerably better by year's end.

[Jack]

Sure, but it is not like Victorino is without value, because, in addition to him being an upgrade over what they have in their corners now, he is also cheap and still decently young. Also, as I said, he constitutes another trade chip for them to use, to go to a team who needs a CF right now.

[bay_area_phan]

Glad to hear about the Lidge deal. Now resign Burrell already.

On including Vic in a trade . . . I am not opposed to the idea in concept, but only if we're getting a top-notch starting pitcher who is under contract beyond this year. And, if we did trade Vic, a full-time OF of Jenkins, Werth & Burrell would be absolutely unacceptable. We would have to make a follow-up move. Kenny Lofton is the obvious move, but not the ideal one since we would be forced us to use either Lofton or Jenkins against left-handed pitchers, whom neither of them can hit. A better solution would be to find a right-handed bat who could provide at least the same offense that Vic provides. That shouldn't be all that difficult to do.

[bay_area_phan]

I don't really understand the obsession over Sabathia. He's an excellent pitcher, but a team with a thin minor league system shouldn't be trading away its best prospects for a two-month rental -- especially when there seem to be other available top-tier pitchers on the trade market, who are under contract beyond this year. Guys like Burnett & Bedard may not be quite on par with Sabathia, but the difference is more than offset by the longevity factor.

[Jack]

If we got rid of Victorino for a pitcher, a logical follow-up move, if they could pull it off, would be to trade for Xavier Nady, a RH hitter who can play the majority of the time in RF because he can hit righties almost as well as he hits lefties (.909 OPS vs. .976 OPS). It would probably decimate our entire farm system to get both Sabathia and Nady, but we'd come out of the deals with improved starting pitching, improved offense, and a slight dropoff in outfield defense. We would be the immediate favorites in the NL.

[Bedrosian's Beard]

you get two first rounders if Sabathia walks, so losing prospects for a "rental" that brings you back two picks, doesn't sound quite so bad.

[philsphan]

I am fine with paying an elite close like Lidge 12 million. I am not okay with paying a decent closer like Myers 12 million. Myers was not an elite closer last year, but he got the job done pretty well. Lidge has been an elite closer in the past, and has returned to being an elite closer this year.

With the Lidge signing the Phillies must sign Chad Durbin and hopefully Pat Burrell. I would sign those two and just go year to year with Howard and Hamels until free agency or trade them when they have one to two years left before free agency for a king's ransom of top prospects.

I am honestly surprised that the Phillies are still in the hunt for Sabathia. I would rather them go for somebody like AJ Burnett, Aaron Cook, or Aaron Harang instead of Sabathia or Bedard. I would also rather see them go after somebody like lefties John Grabow or Ron Mahay than Brian Fuentes for the bullpen.

[RSB]

I clicked onto philly.com and my eyes nearly popped out of my head. The Phillies actually got an extension done mid-season?!? They could lose 15-0 today and it'd still be a good day. This is awesome news. Don't let that door hit your flabby ass on the way out, Brett.

[clicheguevara]

Wow, it certainly feels good to have Lidge wrapped up. The core of this team is so sexy. As cool as it would be to have Sabathia, we are going to be contending for at least a couple more years. This season isn't do or die.

[Jim J]

Why does Charlie continue to bad Rollins 3rd? He's been terrible there.

[Iceman]

News of the Lidge signing almost, ALMOST might make up for a loss today. Total pleasant surprise.

[PhillR]

If Cleveland deals Sabbathia, then they are likely rebuilding, in which case why would they want Vicrtorino? Even if he is an upgrade, he doesn't get them where they want to be.

The young guys, maybe they do, I don't know much about them. Are any of them in Law's top 100?

[clout]

cliche: "we are going to be contending for at least a couple more years. This season isn't do or die."

Really? The Phils are going to re-sign all of their free agents, exercise options and add talent? Who, pray tell?

[Tommy Hutton's Wristbands]

Jim, Rollins hasn't been so good anywhere this year.

[PhillR]

Jim J- Over the course of the season lineup order only has variances of 2-3 runs. Don't sweat Rollins in the 3rd spot, thats not his problem.

[clout]

PhillR: Don't know about Law but the only Phillies in BA's Top 100 prospects were Carrasco & Cardenas.

[Iceman]

Every time Chavez records a hit vs. the Phils, a little part of me dies. It would be as if Nunez came back and started hitting against us.

[philsphan]

I remember that bedies Carrasco and Cardenas, Savery scraped the bottom (90-100) of some top 100 list this year.

[Dave X]

The numbers actually say that Vic hasn't been that much better than average in CF. Make of that what you will - bad luck, bad computing, the truth, or somewhere inbetween - but thats what they say.

[PhillR]

Ollie is looking a little wild today. This could get funny.

[Jack]

Putting Werth in the leadoff spot instead of Rollins against a guy like Perez makes complete sense. With Perez's control issues, you want the guys at the top seeing as many pitches and taking walks as much as possible. Like Werth just did for example.

[Iceman]

Dave X- his speed, defense, arm, and general ability to spark the team are not something the Phils could just snap their fingers and replace.

[Iceman]

Dave X- his speed, defense, arm, and general ability to spark the team are not something the Phils could just snap their fingers and replace.

[GM-Carson]

I predicted a Brad Lidge extension in July before the season began- http://pabaseball.blogspot.com/2008/03/phils-predictions-pitchers.html

[Iceman]

It is really, REALLY painful watching Howard hit against lefties.

[clout]

Jack: Agreed. Werth will take way more pitches than Rollins and he isn't slow either. I like it.

[clout]

I wonder how many good games KK has to pitch for Parker to decide he doesn't suck.

[Inside/Outside the Parker]

Is there any "good" reason why this game is not on MLB Extra Innings? This is garbage.

[Iceman]

Marlon Anderson, jack of all trades.

[Iceman]

Clout -- what are you talking about? He's been terrible so far. Just look at all the base-runners, which are clearly the measuring stick.

Hit the ball on the ground Shane.

[redbeard]

haha thanks marlon

were those mets fans or phillies chanting "you suck marlon"?

[Inside/Outside the Parker]

I'm enjoying watching the Rays, but I'm ticked that I can't watch the Phils. Corporate attempts at world domination infuriate me.

[Iceman]

No complaints for Ruiz on that one. He drew a walk. And what the hell is Feliz doing halfway down the line? You have to be ready to tag up on that play.

[PhillR]

Holy sh*t endy can field.

[Inside/Outside the Parker]

Clout: Sucks? I never said that. I said "had been bad at times this season." Ruiz sucks. There is a continental divide of suckitude between Kendrick and Ruiz.

[Alby]

"When Myers was switched to the bullpen last year, a gaggle of posters here said it was terrible, no team should pay a closer $8M a year and OMG it jumps to $12M in '09! $12M for a closer!"

I believe I was the first one to bring up his salary, but not to whine about it -- it's a business expense. The only business issue is "don't overpay."

At the time, his salary for this year was well above market value for a closer, and I predicted he would be moved back to the rotation based on that. I didn't foresee -- and I don't think anyone else here did either -- $12 million becoming the going rate for closers within a year's time. Yet it clearly has, and I wouldn't call this an overpayment at all.

[Inside/Outside the Parker]

Alby: I believe that I was on the other side of that argument last season. I was bashed unmercifully for saying that the rate of closers would be about even with Myers contract, assuming he performed as well as a good closer. If I recall, it was an argument that lasted several different threads last season.

[Iceman]

Seriously though, there's no way we shouldn't be tattooing Perez, especially when he has no control like he does today.

[Inside/Outside the Parker]

How far does Ruiz's season average have to drop before they consider sending him down? .199? .195? .190? .185? .180?

At what point do you have to have "all-time great" defensive skills balancing out your crappy offensive numbers in order to justify your existence on a MLB roster? Is it o.k. to be above average or good defensively and put up those garbage offensive numbers? I don't think so.

[Alby]

Parker: Congratulations, then. Myers was making $8 million last season, which was a little above the market rate. I didn't think it would rise this fast because there weren't many top talents going onto the market.

It does make me wonder what would have happened had Lidge gone through a couple of rough patches before getting the deal. He's close to as good as imaginable, which means $12 (or $12.5 as an average) is top-shelf price.

[Alby]

Parker: Catcher is pretty much the last position at which some teams will accept a total lack of offense in exchange for good defense. Brad Ausmus has played nearly 1900 major-league games with a career OPS+ of 75.

[Inside/Outside the Parker]

Alby: I was always figuring that the Phils would wait until Lidge failed in his assigned task, at least once, before commencing negotiations.

[Inside/Outside the Parker]

Alby: I realize that, but what is the breaking point. 75 OPS? What is Ruiz's? It has to be in the 50-60 range. IMO, he is an Abraham Nunez that catches.

[nails]

utley and lidge are only phils on the all-star team

[Inside/Outside the Parker]

Ruiz's OPS was .580 when the game started.

[clout]

If I were Manuel I would instruct Howard to take any breaking pitch from a LHP even if it's a hanger. Just never ever swing at a breaking ball from a lefty. The result would be maybe 1 or 2 lost hits for an entire season, a reduction of about 50 Ks and an increase in walks.

[bathtubhippo]

well, parker, at least ruiz worked a count and hit the ball hard in his first AB today. his approach was quality.

why is howard playing today v perez? ideal off day for him.

[billpenn]

no howard or hamels on the all star team?

[Inside/Outside the Parker]

If Howard should never swing at a breaking ball, Ruiz should just never swing, ever, under any circumstances (including BP).

[JMARR]

Would have liked to have seen Burrell make the AS team, but I'm actually glad Cole was left off. Don't have to worry about him throwing in the game, pushing back his first start of the 2nd half etc.

BTW, Vic is worthless lately.

[Inside/Outside the Parker]

If Howard should never swing at a breaking ball, Ruiz should just never swing under any circumstances, including batting practice. I'm afraid that the rest of the players will be thrown off by watching him try to hit a baseball.

[nails]

burrell is on final ballot, along with carlos lee, corey hart, rowand, and wright

[bathtubhippo]

parker, did carlos ruiz run over your dog with his car or something? he can't hit, we get it.

[GM-Carson]

The All-Star game is a bunch of bullshit. The Phils are in 1st place, yet are only assured 2 All-Star roster spots (Utley and Lidge). Burrell and Hamels are both damn fine players, and case could be easily made for both of them deserving the All-Star nod.

[bathtubhippo]

it's hard with the new requirement that the teams be 75% composed of players from new york, boston, and chicago.

[Inside/Outside the Parker]

No, my dog is angry because he feels like he should get an opportunity to take Ruiz's spot. My dog can catch, and I'm not sure he wouldn't be able to hit better either.

[BobbyD]

Burrell should be on the team. How can MLB have the all star game winner get home field advantage in the world series when the rules don't even allow the leagues to put the best team on the field. And the NL has two more teams than the AL, which means the NL has two more players that don't deserve to be there due the the rule that every team must be represented.

[Jack]

Clout: No one thinks Kendrick "sucks". He's pitched better than I, and others, thought he would.

That said, as good as you claim he's been this year, he has an ERA+ of 97, which you and I both know means he's just below league-average. His peripheral numbers indicate his ERA should be worse than it is, considering that his WHIP of 1.44, his low K rate, and the fact that has allowed easily the most unearned runs on the staff. A high number of unearned runs tends to indicate that a pitcher's ERA looks better than his actual value is ( see this article from Baseball Prospectus if you're interested in learning about it: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2753).

Here's what I think is the truth: Kendrick has been a fine #4 starter who has benefitted from great run support, no more and no less.

[Tray]

Carson, the fans don't vote on pitching... so how can you be mad that Hamels isn't assured a spot? Not that I'm even sure he should get one.

[Tommy Hutton's Wristbands]

That Gossage interview redefined TEDIOUS.

[Iceman]

WOW! Ruiz says "Parker, your dog can stay home."

[Inside/Outside the Parker]

Holy horticulturist, Ruiz got a hit off of a LH!

[noodle]

I guess we know what Kyle will be working on in BP.

[Tray]

Oh, nevermind. I have no idea why he didn't get a spot over Dempster, but then again, they could've gone with Santana there too.

[Jack]

Hamels deserves a spot. If people would look beyond W-L records, they'd realize that he's been one of the top 5 pitchers in the NL this year.

[Parker's Dog]

Congrats Ruiz: you are 1 for July.