Readers sense season hinges on 5 games with Mets

With 35 games remaining, the Phillies are backing themselves into a corner while the Mets keep winning. With similar schedules, some feel the division could be decided in the five remaining games between these division rivals.

“The problem is that the Phils are just like the kid who goes into the final with a failing grade and now needs to get a "A" or "A-" just to get a passing grade. Been that way almost every season since 2003 and just once (2007) did the Phils get that passing grade (making the playoffs). ... Basically Phils almost have to go 4-1 or 5-0 against the Mets in their remaining 5 games to win this thing. Otherwise, they face a pretty uphill climb to make up the difference and will also likely need some help from the Mets to falter a bit.” -- MG

“There is still a lot of baseball to be played, including 5 games with the Mets. 18 games against WSH, ATL, FL 5 against the Mets 12 against MIL, CHC, LAD. The Mets just took the lead over the Phils bc of a LAD sweep and bc they took care of business against SD, FL, WSH, PIT, and ATL. The Phils were 14-7 (besides the LAD sweep) in that time. If the Phils win at least 12 of those easy 18 and 5 or 6 of the hard 12, the division winner will be decided by the head-to-head games against the Mets.” -- Sophist

Extra reading: City Paper article on Cole Hamels; Doug Glanville piece for New York Times.

Comments

[Reed]

It would be nice if Cole was involved in more than 1 of the remaining games vs. the Mets.

[curt]

Maybe Cholly and the gang are just playing rope-a-dope, allowing the Mets to become overconfident. When Cholly says the time is right they're going to start putting up 10 hits every night, even against actual ML pitching, and several of them with RISP.

[Mike]

Hopefully the Phillies will rip off their Jason (Voorhees, not Weitzel) masks and stop killing the season.

[vegas]

More Cole agaist the Mets is always nice but does it matter?
They say pitching wins ballgames but if you can't plate any runs it's wasted. 1-3 runs with our best pitching is not going to cut it.
I'm not throwing in the towel, I'm just frustrated.

[HobokenMetsFan]

Its going to be a heck of a couple weeks. Stepping back from both the Mets and Phils for a second, it really makes for some drama and fun filled baseball. I, like you my Philly counterparts, are in for a crazy, tension filled and frustrating couple of weeks as both of our teams compete for that top spot!

[mvptommyd]

Let me remind everyone that one year ago next weekend the end of August is when the Phils started the ball rolling by that thrilling come from behind win @ CBP. Could history be remade next week for the 2 gamer?

[Matt]

i'm going to sunday's game and am more excited to tailgate than watch the game. in fact, i might drink heavily enough so that i can't even see the field - you know, kinda how howard feels when he's at bat.

[Terry]

If, and it's a BIG if, this squad somehow pulls it together for the next 5 weeks and squeaks out the division, do you really see us making anything more than a brief cameo (like last year, except last year's team was better) in the playoffs?

[GM-Carson]

If the Phils fail to make the playoffs, I think the fans will be more pissed than normal. I know I'll be royally miffed!

[mvptommyd]

Matt: Good job buddy and why stop there why you at it chant the Eagles chant the whole time and boo jimmy the whole time. I mean the game? What game?

What a dope, this is why ESPN will light our fanbase up like a xmas tree Sunday

[mvptommyd]

Carson: miffed isn't the word. Then we will have to sit through the eagles management repeat the phillies blunders. Then its time for Ed Snider to show both those teams how it is really done when the Flyers win the East and Sixers make the conference Finals.

[Sophist]

Terry - I like our rotation -- and our 'pen -- more this year. There's also no Rockies juggernaut, it seems.

In any case, even if it were only a brief cameo, the next month of games would be exciting if they ended in a Phillies division title -- just like last September.

[mvptommyd]

Why do i feel like 90% of the bloggers today are being so radical with their comments after losing 1 game to the nats. If we lost the series ok but 1 game? Calm down guys. If we lose the 4 game series to LA then worry but until then relax.

Still on pace to win 90 games, just to throw that in there.

[drew]

from the last thread-

Tommy: While I am certainly wary of the Mets because of last year, and while I also appreciate your enthusiasm for the Phils, to say things like "this isn't the real Mets" is foolish.

Since June 17th, Manuel's first day as manager, the Mets are 37-23. The Phillies are 26-29.

This also goes to the heart of your more rest theory. The Mets have already played 5 more games than the Phils in the same span. Maybe they'll get tired; I can't call it for sure.

I just know that if it were a fluke, they wouldn't have sustained it for this long.

[Sophist]

drew - 60 games isn't that long. The Phils were 39-26 after 65 games this year. Chase Utley is batting under .250 in his last ~50 games. I just know if that weren't a fluke, he wouldn't have sustained it so long. He must be a .250 hitter.

mvp - the Phils aren't on pace to win 90 games. They're 68-59, on pace to win 86 or 87 games. Their Pythag W-L is 71-56, though.

[king myno]

Everyone keeps comparing where this team is to where last year's team was. That's stupid. I don't want this team to have sneak into the playoffs on the last day, by the skin of its teeth. If this team hit like last year's, they'd have a shot at Jimmy's 100 wins prediction. Instead, we've got another year of inconsistent crap under our belts.

[Matt]

tommy, i'm not a booer, and i'm not all that interested/excited for the birds. i'm a phillies fan first. phuck, i have jroll, howard and lidge on my fantasy team! you have to admit it's been hard to watch this team for THE LAST 10 WEEKS!! i just managed to get my girlfriend to actually like watching phillies games and the poor girl is subjected to THIS.

we will be happy in the parking lot drinking beer, playing bag-o and not thinking about baseball. i can't say the same will be the case during the game. i HOPE i am wrong (except for the drinking beer part, i should still be doing that during the game).

[mvptommyd]

Drew: I realize their record, my point is September is a whole new ballgame. If you want to look at records the mets without there 2 hot steaks of 10 in a row and 13 out of 17 are 14-19. The Phillies without their 6-15 interleague debactle leading into the all stear break are 20-14. So numbers can be skewed all the time one way or the other. I am looking at schedules and how mets and phillies did for the year against those teams. and the phillies record against the remaining teams are favorable better than the mets record this year against the teams they play.

Right now compared to last yr the phillies are on pace to win 90 while the mets are on pace to win 88. Mets went .495 the 2nd half while the phillies went .605

[Manuel]

tommy, sounds like you have it all figured out. mets don't have a chance!

[king myno]

.244/.301/.392 for Jenkins. .095 versus lefties, versus .239 lifetime. Jesus. Did he really get that old that fast?

[PhillR]

MVP misses in his break down of the Mets the fact that they have the 2nd best starting rotation in the national league.

Which, I hate to say I predicted would the difference maker for them back in June and everyone said I was f'n crazy.

Its a good thing wagner is injured otherwise I would not be so optimistic going forward. 2 games is not so much to make up given their BP.

That said, I am very fearful of our rotation. Outside of Hamels I feel everyone else has just been really lucky.

[drew]

Sophist: I agree that 60 games isn't that much of a sample, and I wouldn't classify one player in a manner similar to the entire team.

However, I personally think the past 60 games are a better predictor of the next 35 than the ones that were played in April and May.

[PhillR]

MVP: Your math makes no sense. "If I totally ignore 30% of the season, then the Phillies are in first!". Good luck with that.

[Manuel]

"drew - 60 games isn't that long. The Phils were 39-26 after 65 games this year. Chase Utley is batting under .250 in his last ~50 games. I just know if that weren't a fluke, he wouldn't have sustained it so long. He must be a .250 hitter. "

nice false comparison.

willie is gone, causing the two stars that hated him (reyes and delgado) to wake up.

what was the big change with utley?

[petey]

how about marson and donald hooking up for a big run this afternoon? marson's semi-speedy, for a catcher...

[king myno]

I can kind of understand why they'd do it during a game, but I can't fathom why Mets fans sit on their rivals' blogs all morning and afternoon and argue with their fans. If you like arguing THAT much, go to law school. Or go back to Metsblog, where people are interested in discussing the Mets.

[mvptommyd]

We need positive mojo. Everyone wear your 2007 Divison champs hats to the games like I will start doiong.

[Manuel]

"MVP misses in his break down of the Mets the fact that they have the 2nd best starting rotation in the national league."

arguably the best from top to bottom

[PhillR]

Manuel: Meh, I'd take the cubs.

[drew]

Tommy: I understand you're taking the whole season into account. Like I said in the last thread, you should also take into account when those games were initially played.

Yes, the Mets have a losing record this season against the Braves. But do you honestly think that the Braves right now are the same team that the Mets went 2-7 against? Or are the Braves over the next month more like the team that just got swept? I'd argue the latter.

[Manuel]

"Manuel: Meh, I'd take the cubs."

yea, you can go either way.

the cubs definitely have the better 1-2 punch

[Manuel]

Drew, you are being too logical. stop.

[mvptommyd]

Manual: They have a chance, but they will come up short again. Sorry for telling you how it is. The mets fold under pressure. Thats a true statement. The bullpen does, the batters do, even the fans do.

This is as worse as it gets for the Phils.

As for 2nd best rotation? Really I beleive Cubs are better so are the cards and same with Dodgers mets are 4th or 5th if you want to throw arizona in there.

[Sophist]

"However, I personally think the past 60 games are a better predictor of the next 35 than the ones that were played in April and May."

drew - that's no doubt true, but not what I was arguing.

Manuel - you should stop taking all the optimistic arguments here (a Phils' blog after all) as arguments that the Mets have no chance. With a 2 game advantage, a slightly easier schedule (the Stros instead of the Dodgers), and a better team on paper this year, the Mets undoubtedly have the advantage going forward. We are Phillies fans and we're going to make the best case for our team. MVP never said the Mets had no chance.

[Manuel]

"Manual: They have a chance, but they will come up short again. Sorry for telling you how it is. The mets fold under pressure. Thats a true statement. The bullpen does, the batters do, even the fans do."

ah yes, they did it last september, so that means they always do it. if they always do it, that means they'll do it this year too! nice. i'm going to point you to the top of this page, to the Beerleaguer tagline: "...America's most heartbreaking franchise."

"As for 2nd best rotation? Really I beleive Cubs are better so are the cards and same with Dodgers mets are 4th or 5th if you want to throw arizona in there."

hahahahaha

[TK]

Stop it, Manuel. the Cubs rotation is definitely better than the Mets. I'd take the Brewers as well. And the DBacks. You're overvaluing Pedro and Maine.

[doubleh]

OMG, can we stop the Mets/Phils arguments here? Phillies fans have bigger things to worry about, such as our big hitters finding the strike zone before we can even think about Sept.

The schedules are similar. The Mets rotation is better. The Phils BP is much better. Mets are hitting better now, but it would be ludicrous to assume the Phils will hit this poorly the rest of the season. So all things being equal, I consider the teams a wash. It will be decided head-to-head and down the stretch.

Now, let us get back to commiserating over the Phillies, please.

[Manuel]

point taken, sophist. but i would still say that MVP is being slightly ridiculous, as is evident in his assertion that the dodgers and cards have a better starting rotation than the mets.

[TK]

Here you go Manuel. This will make you feel better. Go try and comment here.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_oddspec.php

[Manuel]

"Stop it, Manuel. the Cubs rotation is definitely better than the Mets. I'd take the Brewers as well. And the DBacks. You're overvaluing Pedro and Maine."

there is an argument b/w the cubs and mets rotations, but ill concede that to be nice. pedro as a fifth starter is pretty damn valuable. and maine's 3.82 ERA as a 4th isn't too bad either. top to bottom, i'm really not sure how you say the brewers and dbacks are better.

[mvptommyd]

Manuel: Can you be here on Sept. 26th after the Cub series to eat some crow about how well the mets pitching did please??? The mets rotation is the SAME as Last year except sub Glavine for Santana. How are they all of a Sudden the 2nd best????? They were stiffs last September they will be the same this one. You have to be intelligent enough to know that September baseball is Different then April, May, June, July, and August right? If you think they are the same your an idiot.

By the way:

Glavine in 2007 for the mets

13-8 with a 4.45 ERA 200 IP

Santana 2008 with Mets

11-7 with a 2.75 ERA 178 IP with 7 Starts remaining, Clear Upgrade obviously but the bullpen is worse so they cancel out

[Manuel]

MVP: you want to totally ignore the emergence of Mike Pelfrey? cool, man.

"How are they all of a Sudden the 2nd best????? "

we have 4 guys with ERAs under 4 and a hall-of-fame 5th starter that is beginning to get back into a routine. good enough answer?

[PhillR]

"As for 2nd best rotation? Really I beleive Cubs are better so are the cards and same with Dodgers mets are 4th or 5th if you want to throw arizona in there."

You seem to have a number of beliefs that are not supported by the facts.

Mets starters are 2nd in ERA and BAA behind the Cubs for the season. That they have the 2nd best rotation in the NL is almost impossible to argue against, not that you bother doing so with anything other then baseless assertions.

[mvptommyd]

All Hail the mets pitching according to Manual from worst to 2nd. Santana, Pelfrey, Maine, Pedro, Perez.....Hold on a moment of silence

[drew]

I hope that I’m not coming across as a d*ck to you guys here. I love MetsBlog, but it’s difficult for me to talk seriously about baseball in the comments there. I’ve always found BL to be a serious discussion place, which is why I stick my head in, even if it is to defend the Mets.

Cheers.

[PhillR]

"11-7 with a 2.75 ERA 178 IP with 7 Starts remaining, Clear Upgrade obviously but the bullpen is worse so they cancel out"

Sorry but Santana also goes much deeper into games. You can't argue that getting 2-3 extra innings of 2.75 ERA pitching is canceled out by a worse bullpen. That pen now pitches 1-2 innings instead of 4.

Once again, your logic fails. Please stop, you are an embarrassment to Phillies fans. We are not this stupid.

[PhillR]

Please MVP, what evidence do you have for your argument that the Mets rotation is not 2nd best? Is their a cogent point bouncing around in your skill, or are you just a troll masquerading as a Phillies fan?

[mvptommyd]

Well it is good for their ERA but theya re only Averaging 5.5 innings pitched for the year. Look at the Bullpens Innings and ERA. That is a sight for Sore eyes. So congrats the mets pitchers can pitch under 4 ERA for 5 innings then get lite up like the 4th of July.

[TK]

Manuel: Because Sheets, CC, Haren and Webb are all better than everyone on the Mets staff not named Santana, and most of those guys (save Haren, maybe) have been as good or better than Santana. If you have a better 1 and 2. And guess what? Randy Johnson and Manny Perra have very similar stats to Maine and Pelfrey, too.

Top to bottom, the Mets are pretty deep. But hell, so are the Phillies if you count Myers for the last month. Overall? Dbacks and Brewers are considerably better. You wouldn't have 1 favorable pitching matchup in a NLDS series against those teams.

[Manuel]

Drew:

look around for another mets blog. it's out there and it's much better than Cerrone's crap.

[Matt]

Interesting link about one of our former MVP's.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/nl-mvp-dropoffs

Maybe these MVP awards aren't something we should be rooting for anymore...

[Manuel]

MVP: not worth arguing with anymore

TK: see PhillR's statistics. numbers do not say that the brewers and dbacks are considerably better.

[PhillR]

Brewers SP ERA: 3.91 BAA: .259
Arizona SP ERA: 3.86 BAA: .252
Mets SP ERA: 3.85 BAA: .247

[Manuel]

and the argument was never that the mets have the best 1-2 punch in the NL. don't change the topic.

[Sophist]

PhillR - You know that ERA by itself isn't the best, single metric for SP. The Mets rotation doesn't stack up to the DBacks, Cubs, Brewers, or Dodgers rotations by ERA+.

How are you all evaluating rotations? The Mets rotation is solid no doubt - probably the 5th best in the NL. But besides Santana the highest ERA+ is Maine's 107 -- and he isn't giving their bullpen any rests. It's not even that much more impressive than the Phils.

Santana - 146
Maine - 107
Pelfrey - 106 (3.07 since 7/3)
Perez - 104

Hamels - 138
Moyer - 125
Blanton - 99
Myers- 94 (1.47 in last 5 starts)

Note to PhillR and Mets' fans -- I am not saying the Phils' rotation is as good as the Mets. But by ERA+, it's not all that much more impressive.

These are the top 4 rotations this year.

Dempter - 153
Zambrano - 136
Harden - 299 (since NL)
Lilly - 105

Sabathia - 269 (since NL)
Sheets - 136
Parra - 105
Bush - 101

Webb - 165
Haren - 145
Johnson - 109 (2.05 since 7/6)
Davis - 97

Billingsley - 146
Kershaw - 122
Lowe - 113
Kuroda - 111

I'd put LAD, ARI, CHC, and MIL above the Mets.

STL isn't that bad as long as they have Wainwright.

Wainwright - 134 (only 13 starts though)
Wellemeyer - 112
Lohse - 107
Looper - 107

STL isn't better than the Mets, though.

[mvptommyd]

PhillR: Pretanding to be a phillies fan yet bashing the mets? That statement alone proves how A$$ backwards your thinking is.

Look at the Mets SP innings smartguy. They can't go deep into games they have only pitched 690 innings all year which means that the bullpen for the mets have pitched almost 4 innings a game everygame.

I would taken Harden, Zambrano or CC, Sheets, or Webb, Johnson or Carpenter, Wainwright and Lohse all over the mets you idiot.

[drew]

Manuel: I appreciate the access that Cerrone gets, and that he gets news up quickly... I just can't take all the Dbags that get on there just to type in all caps about the Mets being the best. (Which I would also say, obviously, just not in all caps.) If this mysterious, serious Mets blog is out there, I'll be on the look out.
Or, you can just e-mail me at andy(dot)klingenberger(at)gmail.com

[Manuel]

"Note to PhillR and Mets' fans -- I am not saying the Phils' rotation is as good as the Mets. But by ERA+, it's not all that much more impressive."

so what does that say about ERA+ ?

and when did we switch from a 5-man rotation to a 4-man rotation?

[TK]

Manuel: See sophist's stats. And again, the Mets wouldn't have one favorable pitching matchup in a playoff series against those teams.

[Manuel]

ill email you, drew

[TK]

Jamie Moyer would be the #2 starter on the Mets this year. True story.

[PhillR]

Its not hard to see why the Brewers and Snakes perform worse as a team then the Mets in SP.

Arizona's 3,4 and 5 combine for a 4.86ERA
Brewers 3,4,5 combine for 4.33 ERA
Mets 3,4,5 combine for 4.10 ERA

[Manuel]

"Manuel: See sophist's stats. And again, the Mets wouldn't have one favorable pitching matchup in a playoff series against those teams. "

i think ERA and .BAA are good stats for measuring pitching. different stats will tell you different things. maybe this analysis will show you that the dodgers, dbacks, and brews are not obviously better than the mets, but that there are nuances to the discussion.

"And again, the Mets wouldn't have one favorable pitching matchup in a playoff series against those teams"

and again, you change the subject.

i'd also point out, again, that the numbers Sophist posted, while noteworthy, only seem to account for a 4 man rotation.

[Sophist]

Manuel - Manuel, it doesn't say anything about ERA+. It says more about Blanton's small NL sample size. His overall ERA+ this year is 84, which is probably a more accurate measure of his abilities and the amount of confidence Phils' fans have in him.

We could throw in the 5th starters, it doesn't say much though. I mean, the Mets 5th starter has an 82 ERA+ this year (slightly higher than what Eaton has done), so it wouldn't help you any here.

It really doesn't matter. The Mets rotation is an advantage they have over the Phils and probably 10 other NL teams. But I wouldn't take it over those 4 teams I listed.

[squatter]

We get to play 18 more against the Nats? That's great, last game notwithstanding. Only 5 against the Mets, so even if we go 2-3 there, we can make it up by going 12-6 against the Nats, which is very doable.

[drew]

Manuel: Thanks.

Have a good weekend everyone. I'm off to happy hour.

[NEPP]

I'd definitely take the Dbacks or the Brewers in a 7 game series against the Mets...I'd take the Dodgers pitching over them too.

Why the hell do we keep talking about the Mets?

[Manuel]

"Jamie Moyer would be the #2 starter on the Mets this year. True story. "

are you and tommy the same person?

by the way, moyer is pitching great. he knows what he's doing.

[GM-Carson]

Tonights Lineup:
1. Jimmy Rollins- SS
2. Chase Utley- 2B
3. Pat Burrell- LF
4. Ryan Howard- 1B
5. Shane Victorino- CF
6. Greg Dobbs- 3B
7. Geoff Jenkins- RF
8. Coste- C
9. Kendrick- P

Go Phils!

[Manuel]

"We could throw in the 5th starters, it doesn't say much though. I mean, the Mets 5th starter has an 82 ERA+ this year (slightly higher than what Eaton has done), so it wouldn't help you any here."

i take your point, sophist. the 5th starter DOES have relevance here, though, because the original point of contention was that the mets are 2nd to the cubs in terms of starting rotation from top to bottom. top being number 1, and bottom being number 5.

[Sophist]

Manuel - the problem with ERA is that it doesn't take into account the quality of the opposition and park factors. You know how Mets' fans complain that the Phils' offensive numbers are supported by a bandbox ball park? Well, the pitchers are hurt by that park. Jamie Moyer, for instance, is pitching well everywhere this year. 125 ERA+, 3.54 ERA. But his ERA is 2.79 on the road! and his BAA is .231.

[PhillR]

MVP: "I would taken Harden, Zambrano or CC, Sheets, or Webb, Johnson or Carpenter"

(1) I said all along the cubs were better
(2) I agree that the 1,2 of the Brewers is better then the Mets, but the rotation as a whole is not, hence the ERA. You see, by "better" I mean (ready?) a lower ERA. Which the Mets have.
(3) Carpenter has pitched in 2 games this season

Again, lower ERA. Hence, better. Hence they are beating us by 2 games and have a better record then the Cardinals.

However, as all learned from your "math" earlier, the Phillies are actually in 1st.

[GM-Carson]

From David Murphy-
The Phillies are 2.5 games behind the Mets with 35 to play.

Of their next 23 games, 20 are against teams that have winning records.

That doesn't bode well.

High Cheese's crack statistical department crunched some numbers this morning and discovered that the Phillies have the worst record against winning teams among all National League contenders.

Here they are, in order:

Team. . . .Rec. . . .Pct
Cubs. . . .29-21. . .580
Mets. . . .34-25. . .576
Marlins. . 30-30. . .500
Dodgers. . 28-28. . .500
Brewers. . 29-30. . .492
Cardinals. 26-28. . .482
DBacks. . .20-31. . .392
Phillies. .23-36. . .390

[TK]

Yeah he does know what he's doing. He's doing it better than anyone not named Santana on the Mets this season. Check the stats.

Also, how is it changing the subject by matching up the pitchers on the other teams with the Mets? Your argument was top to bottom they're arguably the best rotation in the NL. How is that possible if they don't have one favorable matchup?

[PhillR]

Moyer has been awesome this year. Its fantastic. He is the one surprise that has kept us in it this year.

[Manuel]

"Manuel - the problem with ERA is that it doesn't take into account the quality of the opposition and park factors. You know how Mets' fans complain that the Phils' offensive numbers are supported by a bandbox ball park? Well, the pitchers are hurt by that park. Jamie Moyer, for instance, is pitching well everywhere this year. 125 ERA+, 3.54 ERA. But his ERA is 2.79 on the road! and his BAA is .231. "

well said.

ERA+ is a good stat, but i'm not sure i'm going to take it as the gold standard...just like OPS+. i'm not just going to dismiss ERA and BAA.

[PhillR]

ERA+ is a much better stat then ERA. I would prefer to use it to ERA, but can't find it for teams. Its quite likely that the Mets drop a spot on the starter list in ERA+, and I would absolute accept that as more accurate.

Its really not valid to compare ERA or OPS due to park factor and strength of opposition. ERA+ and OPS+ measure the same things but are designed to be used for valid comparisons.

Manuel, why use the old stats if the new ones are available?

[clout]

PhillR: Your pretending not to be a Mets fan remains one of the most amusing regular features on Beerleaguer.

[Sophist]

Manuel - Mets rotation is probably top 5 in the NL (with Cubs, DBacks, Dodgers, and Brewers in the mix.) Ordering from there is just a pedantic exercise. I can't imagine there are many who wouldn't take the Brewers and Dbacks, at least, over the Mets.

[Manuel]

ERA+ and OPS+ are by no means perfect statistics. ill say that they are better than ERA and OPS.

i would, however, like to see numbers for a 5 man rotation.

[clout]

ERAs and BAA against without park context are a joke. Which makes PhillR's post a joke. The Mets play in one of the most extreme pitcher's parks in the majors and the Phillies in the most extreme hitters' park. The Brew Crew and the D'backs also play in ghitters' parks. The best measure is ERA+, which takes into account ballpark context.

[Sophist]

Dobbs is starting today! Hurrah!

[Manuel]

"Manuel - Mets rotation is probably top 5 in the NL (with Cubs, DBacks, Dodgers, and Brewers in the mix.) Ordering from there is just a pedantic exercise. I can't imagine there are many who wouldn't take the Brewers and Dbacks, at least, over the Mets. "

ok

[PhillR]

Clout- Im not a mets fan. There is no pretending. However I am a bigger fan of reason and logic then I am the Phillies.

Apparently every time I am defending the Phillies or cerain players against attack, no one notices or cares. However when i argue with morons like MVP, I am branded a Mets fan.

I didn't expect you of all people to argue that being a Phillies fan was synonymous with willful ignorance.

[donc]

Clout: LOL

[Manuel]

clout, your pills.

[timr]

Has this Randy Miller piece about the Phils' clubhouse been posted yet?
http://blogs.phillyburbs.com/blog.php/?p=33517&cat=199

According to Miller, the Phils are the worst team in baseball as far as making sure players are available to the media post-game. These guys are hiding in the showers rather than being accountable after a bad game. Not a good sign.

[Sophist]

timr - that's a non-story.

Manuel. CHC 5th starter has a 96 ERA+. MIL's a 93. I'm not sure who ARI 5th starter is since Owings is gone. Same with LAD now that Penny is injured. Pedro's ERA+ is 82.

[PhillR]

Clout, I wasn't comparing the Mets rotation to the Phillies at any point. However,:

"The Mets play in one of the most extreme pitcher's parks in the majors and the Phillies in the most extreme hitters' park."

I can't blame you for falling to the hype, however:
Park Factor:
CBP Ranks #16.
Miller Park Ranks #19
Shea Ranks #21

CBP is basicly neutral at 1.02. Shea and Miller Park are both ever so slightly pitchers parks.

So no they aren't that incomparable. They are both pretty much neutral towards hitters and pitchers.

"The Mets play in one of the most extreme pitcher's parks in the majors"
FALSE

"and the Phillies in the most extreme hitters' park."
Wrong again.

"The Brew Crew...play inghitters' parks."
Woops. Opposite of true.

"the D'backs also play in ghitters' parks."
You got one! Congratz.

I guest one out of 4 aint bad.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor

[Manuel]

you're a good sport, sophist.

[clout]

PhillR: LOL. Yeah, Shea is a hitters park and CBP is barely a hitters park. What a doofus. Look at the offensive numbers at Shea and CBP over the past decade.

[doubleh]

People keep saying CBP is a hitter's park--that's a misnomer. It's a homerun park. Other than speedsters like Vic or Rollins, who's hitting 3B's at the Bank?

But to say it favor pitchers would be inaccurate. It might favor GB pitchers, but sure as h*ll not FB pitchers. (or guys like hang curveballs regularly)

[MPN]

timr: No, it is just that they don't want to talk to Randy Miller. The dude has an agenda. He does these sorts of pieces all of the time, spouts off on the radio, tells stories of questionable veracity out of school (like this recent garbage about Urbina) and then wonders why players won't talk to him. Hello???

[doubleh]

^Or Adam Eaton.

[Brian G]

clout: To answer your question from a few hours ago, yes, I did see the play.

[PhillR]

Clout: I linked the park factors to you. Please explain to me why they are wrong.

[paco]

The discussion of the Phils' and Mets' starters is essentially moot. Whether the Mets or Phils win the NL East will be dependent on the following:

1. The Mets' bullpen
2. The Phillies' offense (specifically, their OBP)

If one of the above improves significantly (but not the other), the team that receives the benefit will win the division. If both 1. and 2. improve or get worse (or if neither changes), then the division will probably be a toss-up, looking at it with one month to go.

[PhillR]

Clout, I just took a look at the numbers for CBP. For the past four years it has been becoming more pitcher friendly each year.

Finally this year it is now essentially neutral. This things aren't static, they change based on the other parks, weather patterns, etc.

[paco]

What I wonder is whether the decline in CBP's park factor is linked to the decline in the Phils' offense this season.

[clout]

Brian G: Ah, so you saw that it was cue shot hit the opposite way, a looping liner rather than a hard shot, that would've been an easy catch except that Infante totally lost it in the lights. It's also available on video at the Mets site. I'm glad we agree on the facts.