Readers sense season hinges on 5 games with Mets

With 35 games remaining, the Phillies are backing themselves into a corner while the Mets keep winning. With similar schedules, some feel the division could be decided in the five remaining games between these division rivals.

“The problem is that the Phils are just like the kid who goes into the final with a failing grade and now needs to get a "A" or "A-" just to get a passing grade. Been that way almost every season since 2003 and just once (2007) did the Phils get that passing grade (making the playoffs). ... Basically Phils almost have to go 4-1 or 5-0 against the Mets in their remaining 5 games to win this thing. Otherwise, they face a pretty uphill climb to make up the difference and will also likely need some help from the Mets to falter a bit.” -- MG

“There is still a lot of baseball to be played, including 5 games with the Mets. 18 games against WSH, ATL, FL 5 against the Mets 12 against MIL, CHC, LAD. The Mets just took the lead over the Phils bc of a LAD sweep and bc they took care of business against SD, FL, WSH, PIT, and ATL. The Phils were 14-7 (besides the LAD sweep) in that time. If the Phils win at least 12 of those easy 18 and 5 or 6 of the hard 12, the division winner will be decided by the head-to-head games against the Mets.” -- Sophist

Extra reading: City Paper article on Cole Hamels; Doug Glanville piece for New York Times.

Comments

[Manuel]

clout, is a hard hit ball hit directly at an outfielder a tricky play?

[PhillR]

That ball should have been caught. That seemed pretty obvious to me on baseball tonight.

[MG]

It is not the Mets' posters don't bring something to the table. The issue is that it seems to be that you get a ton on nonsensical/ridiculous arguments like "the Mets starting rotation is the best in the NL" or "Pelfrey is an ace now" with the added mixture of knocking the Phils. Plus, it only ever occurs when the Mets are doing well or riding a hot streak.

[clout]

PhillR: "CBP is basicly neutral at 1.02."

More HRs were hit at CBP last season than any park in the majors, the park has ranked in the upper third in runs scored in the NL in each of its existence and yet it's neutral not a hitter's park. Interesting.

[clout]

Manuel: If you think that was a hard hit ball directly hit at Infante you really, really need to look at the clip posted on the Mets Web site. Or you have vision problems.

[doubleh]

Whew, Smallwood on DNL just called Ryan Howard a quote: "stupid hitter".

I sort of agree, but, man, I'd like to see him get an interview with Howard now.

[NEPP]

clout: Statistics proof out that it may give up some easy HRs, the lack of gap space allows a ton of potential hits to be chased down. I would also place that HR total as having to do with having some very prolific HR hitteres on teh Phillies skewing it a bit. CBP is definitely no Coors field.

[NEPP]

Well this season he has kinda been a stupid hitter.

[doubleh]

I agree, he doesn't adjust and stands so far away from the plate he gives the opposing pitcher an enormous strike zone. They've told him several times to move up and he won't. That suggests stupidity to me.

[PhillR]

Clout and its been below average in singles, doubles and triples in between half to all of it's seasons.

Home runs aren't the only factor, and it could be that it just took a couple years for the players to learn the ins and outs of fielding there.

There is a clear trend in all but homers away from favoring the hitters. This year it has been practically neutral in the aggregate. The numbers don't lie.

You still don't dispute the ranking, just cite one subset of the numbers. Ill take that as conceding the point.

[NEPP]

So maybe...just maybe the people designing it with all those wind studies were actually right about it playing fairly neutral...ironic that they still moved back the leftfield wall.(though that could have helped tilt it a bit towards a pitchers park. Though they only moved the wall something like 8 ft back right?

[Sophist]

Nats have put up 10 runs on the Cubs today. Wow. Of course, Wrigley is fickle and it was 5th starters' day.

[AWH the RBP]

" it only ever occurs when the Mets are doing well or riding a hot streak. "

MG, you are correct. Mets' posters rarely, if ever, show up here unless the Mets are in first place.

Also, it is a silly to try to argue which NL rotation is "better" because there really is no empirical way to DEFINITIVELY determine it, except on the extremes of performance. You can cite various statisitics, but those are subject to game-by-game fluctuation and are a moving target.

At the end of the season you can say "well, Xs rotation was better that Ys", but that also doesn't account for variables as to who made up the rotation during the season, or who they played since the schedules are no longer balanced.

You can try to take a snapshot by saying "right now these five guys are better than these other 5 guys", but again, that evaluation is terribly subjective, and the stats you use to measure them are subject to change.

One way I like to speculate with it is to figure out whether a pitcher would make another team's rotation, and where he'd fit into it. For instance, would Cole Hamels be the Yankees' #1? Would Ben Sheets be the Phillies #1? Would Santana be the Brewers' #1? Where would the current version Brett Meyers or Oliver Perez fit into the Cubs' rotation?

However, IMO, there is no way to DEFINITIVELY determine whether the Dodgers, Mets, Brewers, Cub or D'backs has the best or better rotation. They're all pretty good.

[Sophist]

Ronnie Belliard's last 7 days: .609/.640/.696
His August: .444/.483/.574

A .433 OBP since the AS break.

Can't wait for Utley, Howard, or Burrell to put together a solid week or so of baseball. Utley could be starting one though: 4 for his last 7 with a BB.

[EastFallowfield]

Just for informational purposes, for fans of ERA:

Santana Home 2.41 Road 3.03

Maine Home 3.99 Road 3.69

Perez Home 3.62 Road 4.20

Pelfrey Home 2.41 Road 5.20

Pedro Home 3.60 Road 6.15

Seems Shea helps everyone but Maine for some reason.

[AWH]

"Clout and its been below average in singles, doubles and triples in between half to all of it's seasons."

PhillR, I'm not sure what that sentence means, exactly. No offense, but it's poorly constructed. "in between hald to all it's seasons"? "it's" means "it is" as opposed to " its' " which is the possesive form.

Did you really mean to say "Clout and its been below average in singles, doubles and triples in between half to all of IT IS seasons."?

Color me confused.

[AWH]

NEPP, I believe they moved it 10 feet back. It also had the effect of raising the wall about a foot, though I'm not sure that affects batted ball too much.

[MG]

You don't judge a ballpark by one season. Historically, Shea has played much more as a pitcher's park than CBP. Making conclusions around a single data point (season) is meaningless.

[diehard]

I am not in the camp that says we have to trade Howard, but there are situations in which it would have to considered. Some have discussed trading Howard and resigning Burrell to play first. Doing that will leave a huge gap in production in our lineup. I would be for doing what Ken Rosenthal's new article suggests may be an option for the Phillies

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/8478206/Phillies-underachieving-and-facing-decisions?CMP=OTC-K9B140813162&ATT=3498

He suggests we could use some of the prospects we get from Howard and flip them for Holliday. Without knowing who else would be available for trade next offseason, Holliday could be the best pickup, but we can't just trade Howard without getting a another big hitter, and might as well trade Howard while he still has value. If we can essentially trade Howard for Holliday and either a good young 3B and/or a young stud pitcher, I would be all for that.

[EastFallowfield]

Wow, the Nats have scored 13 runs on the Cubs so far. Guess those Cubs are done.

[Sophist]

diehard - that would be interesting. Holliday is having a monster season and is entering his prime. Probably involves more imagination and courage than our FO can muster.

I just realized I dropped the ball earlier when I couldn't figure who the new Dodgers 5th starter is -- the Phils are facing him today! Maddux. 97 ERA+. I can't see how you can look at those ERA+ numbers and think the Mets rotation has been better than the Dodgers or DBacks.

[NEPP]

Holliday's is a vastly different player on the road compared to at Coors.

[NEPP]

Good thing we've got Kendrick going then...He'l shut them down no problem! ;)

[doubleh]

I don't believe Holliday is any better of a fielder than Howard is.

I'd rather have Tex. Actually, I'd rather have A-Rod, but now I'm just being crazy.

[AWH the RBP]

This is th emost interesting paragraph form the Rosenthal article:

"Burrell, a free agent, wants to remain with the Phillies, and one club official estimates that the team's chances of keeping him are "better than 50-50." Nothing is certain — Burrell likely will command between $14 million and $17 million per season on the open market. But Burrell, 31, actually enjoys playing in Philadelphia, and has been fairly durable over the past four seasons. The days of the Phillies wanting to trade him are long gone."

A better than 50-50 chance of resigning Burrell?

That's either a bunch of 'oxymoron' BS smoke and mirrors, or maybe the Phils are contemplating exactly what Rosenthal speculates: trade Howard and sign Burrell.

Do you keep Burrell in LF and sign Delgado to a short term deal?

Hmmm.

Anyway, let's get through this season first. Hopefully, the usual suspects in the Phils lineup will start mashing again, tha pitching will hold up, and they'll go on another runs and end the specualtion about who will win the NL East.

[Sophist]

NEPP - That's less and less true every year Holliday is in the league. This year his away line is .317/.412/.519.

[diehard]

NEPP,

Yeah I know he is and that's why I thought Jimmy should have won the MVP last year. I just get sick and tired of watching Howard not recognize what an offspeed pitch looks like. Reports have the Tigers looking to shed payroll so maybe they would have interest in trading Magglio. Of course if it weren't for our self imposed salary cap, we could just resign Burrell, trade Howard for a hitter and pitcher, and just sign Teixeria.

[AWH]

NEPP, you're right about Holliday.

It was pointed out by someone about a month ago that Burrell actually has better numbers at Coors than Holliday does.

I think it was about 120+ ABs, so it's a much smaller sample size, but enough to have statistical significance.

Do the Rocks trade Holliday and sign Burrell because he gives them better cost certainty?

It will be an interesting offseason.

[PhillR]

MG: Historically? Think about your sample size for a second. Also realize that the trend has been getting more pitcher friendly each year for 4 years now.

[Sophist]

Holliday away line since 2006

06: .280/.333/.485 (116 OPS+)
07: .301/.374/.485 (130 OPS+)
08: .317/.412/.519 (156 OPS+)

I like that trend. Holliday turned 28 this year.

[NEPP]

I'm a bit mistaken on Holliday...I was remember his splits earlier in the year where he was much lower on the road. He's still a step down on the road but its not as bad as I thought... .931 OPS on the road this season, wow.

[Sophist]

Not that I expect Holliday to hit .369/.450/.667 which is what he's hitting at Coors this year. Crazy line. But I wouldn't go the extreme and say he isn't an elite player in this league.

[diehard]

NEPP,

You only said he was a different player on the road than at home, which is true and I think everyone would agree with.

And I was not aware of how good he's actually been on the road this year (thanks Sophist). Now seeing that I really wish this would happen. Some team out there with no power in their lineup and needs to sell tickets might overpay and hope this year was a fluke.

[Sophist]

The other thing about Holliday is that he doesn't have a severe split. He's actually better against RHP than LHP.

.355/.437/.615 overall against RHP and
.323/.411/.543 against RHP away from Coors.

He also plays in the NL West which means lots of good pitching and many pitcher-friendly parks. He's hitting .375/.429/.625 in Dodger Stadium this year, for instance.

Anyway, no reason to drag this on. I'm worried about Kendrick tonight. Would have been nice for him to get a rebound start against WSH.

[NEPP]

Manny made Kyle his b#tch last time out so hopefully that doesn't happen again.

[diehard]

Yeah I don't really want to drag this out anyways either, just thought it was an interesting article by Rosenthal and wanted to share it with everyone. Besides having our FO make 2 separate trades give the new GM 2 chances to get taken advantage of in a trade.

[Sophist]

Yeah, diehard, no question he's different on the road than at home but usually that's not taken literally but rather as a short-hand way of saying that if it weren't for Coors he wouldn't be an elite or well above-average player.

[Sophist]

In 66 PA, Jenkins has big numbers against Maddux. .417/.470/.550. Only 1 HR though. Let's hope he brings that swing he had last night.

Burrell also has good numbers (.976 OPS in 50 PA.)

[MG]

PhilR - Why are you being dense? The issue is that Shea is a pitcher's park and CBP isn't. It just means that when you are comparing the raw numbers between the Mets and Phils staff you need to insert a caveat. That's all.

[Sophist]

The Dodgers 6-7-8 tonight is Martin-Nomar-Blake. Crap.

[MG]

AWH - That interesting. The only way I figure the Phils decide to make a legit run at resigning Burrell this year to a 3- or 4-year deal is that if they intend to play him at 1B towards the end of any new contract.

That means the Phils might be very realistically considering the possibility of moving Howard in the next year or so.

Frankly, I would not be fundamentally opposed to this. The problem is that the Phils have done very poorly when they trade a star and usually are left with not much more than magic beans when all is said and done.

[AFish]

Cholly finally split up Utley and Howard vs a RHP.

Rollins
Utley
Burrell
Howard
Victorino
Dobbs
Jenkins
Coste
Kendrick

[phReed]

I like this lineup.

[Sophist]

When a team faces a pitcher twice in a short time, you'd think it would be an advantage for the bats.

That series in LA was frustrating not only because of the sweep, but because the Phils were in pretty much every game except possibly the first.

[slintyfresh]

No MLB Extra Innings feed tonight? Lame... Instead, they have both the home and away feeds of Pittsburgh-Milwaukee on. Lame. Who decides these things?

[doubleh]

Sophist: I'm guessing it'll be more of an advantage for the Dodgers' bats than ours, but maybe that's just the pessimist in me.

[Sophist]

Short-porch.

[Sophist]

Nice catch, Jenkins.

Not looking good for Kendrick early.

[doubleh]

Kendrick and Dodgers is a bad mix. Hope he can keep us in the game.

[Hope SE]

I think Maddux is the worst type of pitcher you could face for a team in a slump. Hits spots and changes speeds. Hitters are overanxious and timing is off. 5 pitch first.

[Marc H]

The games against the Mets will only matter if one of the teams wins more than 3 games. A 3-2 split doesn't decide the race either way

[Mets Fan]

Its gonna be a good race starting from now. May the better team win.

Signed,
A Mets Fan.

[Easley Or Bruntlett?]

Luis Castillo = Ryan Howard.