Readers debate whether Moyer has turned the corner

Jamie Moyer reached his milestone 250th win yesterday against a Nationals team with a competent offense, but nothing else. Readers drew their own conclusions.

"This was a great start and there wasn't exactly the most consistent strike-zone. The home-run ball vs. Willingham was a good pitch; Sarge called it 'up,' but the pitch before and pitch right after it were in the same spots. It was a fastball away, at the knees. Granted, it was the Nats. But Moyer threw well, and didn't get all the calls he thought he should have. Moyer had his curve working well too, often an overlooked part of his repertoire." - PhillyBlunt

"To the baseball 'experts' out there: keep thinking. You'll get it right someday. Jamie, Nationals or not, has just turned in a completely competent performance. For those whom it was forgone to say that Moyer was done: Watch. Wait. Learn. Moyer will tell you when it's over for him." - bigmyc

"Park's 6 IP, 0 ER performance was equally (if not more) impressive as this. Sorry if I don't view Moyer's 2nd good start out of 10 as him turning it around yet." - Dave X

"Yes, it was a nice outing by Moyer. But it'll take several more of those to convince me that he's not washed up. A washed up pitcher can still throw a good game now and then. Steve Carlton is the player who springs to mind when I think of a guy who stuck around so far past his prime as to become an embarrassment to himself. Yet, in 1987, when his ERA+ was 79, he still managed to make 7 starts in which he went 7 or more innings and allowed 3 or fewer runs." - bay_area_phan

"This notion of Moyer 'on the comeback' is kind of ridiculous though. What is it at this point is a guy who will give a little over 5 IP and 3-4 ER most times out. He will give the occasional gem like today but also give you a turd outing too. Kind of what I thought he would give the Phils last year although he was much better because he kept the ball on the ground and in the park. The real issue is that if Moyer does make 30 starts this year and gives the Phils 180 IP this year, his salary next year will be over $10M" - MG

Comments

[Sam]

Move over haters. We need Moyer, not just in the staff, but to rear our young lefties, Happ and Bastardo.

He completely handled a washington club 3rd in the league in runs scored, and he's shown improvement in each of his last 3 starts.

[PHIinBK]

The rest of the first half schedule is absolutley brutal - road games against padres, dodgers, mets, then the interleague schedule against the redsox, toronto, the orioles, and hit the road for the rays, bluejays, and braves.

We'll get a taste of exactly how effective Moyer, and the kids can be.

[davthom73]

Sam, that's exactly right. When the Moyer haters attempt to discount his performance yesterday because the opponent was Washington, they conveniently ignore the fact that with all significant offensive categories taken into account -- the Nats are the third most potent offense in the league.

[AWH]

EF, just to be nitpicky, the correct latin term for new thread is "novus ligamen", which actually translates as "new string". I'm not sure there is a literal translation for the word "thread".

[Andy]

Amazing. When Moyer was amassing a 7+ and 8+ era, there were all these calls for patience, based on a 162 game season. Now, the very same people, based on 6 innings are proclaiming that he is perfectly fine.

And anyone who wonders if a 46 year old can pitch consistently well in the major league is officially a "hater."

What a eloquent and intellectual board we have!

[J.R. King]

I'll give credit to both Moyer and Lidge. The Nats can't pitch or play defense, but they have a really good line-up who can hit.

Will Moyer be able to reproduce those results week after week? I have no idea. He's the new Myers.

[J.R. King]

Nice graphic, JW. I guess you had time to put that together.

[J. Weitzel]

It was a busy weekend, and actually the next week and a half may be lighter than normal posting.

[AWH]

Congratulations to Moyer on reaching the 250 win milestone. Class act, hard worker, great teacher and mentor. He's as deserving of the accolades as anyone.

It's been an interesting debate on whether Moyer is 'shot' or not.

Different perspectives have been presented by many, but the simple fact is: no one knows.

IMO, yesterday's performance against a good offensive club gives some hope that he's has not lost "it".

I also think fellow BLr's need to decide what "it" is. (I know, I sound like Bill Clinton).

My point is this: Each individual poster's expectations play no small part in their evaluation of Jamie.

If, in order to satisfy the 'naysayers', Jamie Moyer has to duplicate his 2008 performance of 16 wins, 3.71 ERA and 196 IP, then he's lost "it". Why? Because the probablity of him being able to pitch that well again for an entire season is very, very, very low.

OTOH, if the expectation is for him to be a league average or slightly below league average pitcher and finish 11 - 10, 190+ IP, with a 4.34(currently the league average) to 5.00 ERA, then I think the evaluation would be he still has "it".

I wonder if his performance last season has raised expectations more than they should have been raised.

From the ages of 40 to 45, Moyer went 82 - 60 (13-10 avg), with a 4.29 ERA while averaging 204 IP.

If he gets anywhere close to that, it will be pretty hard for anyone to calim he's lost "it".

[AWH]

BTW, the Phillies team ERA now stands at 5.02 - 15th out of 16 teams.

Who's worse? The Nats, of course.

That is not a recipe for repeating as WFC.

[Andy]

AWH:
In the Lehigh Valley that would be "ewnay eadthray."
In an iron kind of way.

[thephaithful]

Andy: so very true about our sample size arguments. It all goes out the window when your rooting interest takes place, then you feel vindicated and authorized to start dishing out the 'i told you so' posts.

I think clout's post about a pitcher who is washed up can never have a good start is a perfect example. He's the first one to tell everyone that ANYONE can have a good game here or there, but you must look at the whole picture...but all of a sudden whoever called Moyer washed up is proven wrong because of his last start(s). Of course clout's defense will be "i never typed those specfic words that anyone was proven wrong" but thats exactly what he meant.

I dont think of myself as a Moyer hater, but I do cringe on every delivery when he's in a hitter's count and/or there is men on base. I feel like the lowliest of hitters are just as much of a threat to him as the big boys, which makes his outings seem to never have a relaxing pace.

I will always pull for Moyer because of what he has done, does, and stands for--but that doesnt mean I won't be critical of his performance if i feel it deserves it, which most of 2009 it absolutely has.

[AWH]

Whether he's lost it or not, Moyer's career has been pretty amazing.

From his big league debut until the age of 29, he was 34 - 54, with a 4.56 ERA.

Since turning 30, Moyer's record is 216 - 136, with a 4.15 ERA.

[clout]

thephaithful: I think the problem here is the definition of washed up. To me it means, finished, done, can no longer compete at the major league level. What does it eman to you?

BAP seems to think washed up is definied by ERA. So how high does the ERA have to be? If he post an ERA above 5.00 is he washed up in your book?

[AWH]

phaithful, I think we all have a "rooting interest" in seeing Moyer pitch well.

The debate is whether or not he's still an effective pitcher.

[clout]

Andy, this is just plain dishonest: "And anyone who wonders if a 46 year old can pitch consistently well in the major league is officially a "hater."

We all wonder if a 46 year old can succeed. It is the posters who have declared him washed up, done, finished etc. we're talking about. You do see the differnece, right?

[AWH]

BTW, on a completely different topic, NEPP mentioned in the last thread that his confidence in Madson yesterday, even with two runners on, was not shaken.

IMO, it's because his increased velocity (he can now dial it up to 97 MPH) has made him a much better strikeout pitcher.

From 2003-2007 his K/9 ratio was 6.97.

Since August 1st of 2008 (albeit an arbitrary date on my part), his K/9 has been 9.05.

[Bedrosian's Beard]

Whew, been on vacation for the last 9 days and I missed a lot!

*Congrats to Jamie Moyer on his 250th-well deserved.

*I'm glad to see he's had two(?) good-great starts in a row. Not sure if I'd rush to say he's "back" or if he ever "left", but I'll feel a lot better about this staff if he pitches well. Somewhere between 07-08 Moyer is fine by me.

*Great start by Blanton. I think Dubee should be given credit for finding the hitch in his delivery-assuming there was one. Won't expect that start every time, but he looked great.

* Excited to see how Bastardo does tomorrow night. Glad he'll be starting in a pitching friendly park.

*Would trade the pharm for Halladay. Peavy and Bedard would be perfectly fine. Would love them to target Bucholtz, but I guess the Sox are interested in trading Penny b/c of Bucholtz. (BTW, Penny had another decent start the other night). No on Marquis. Although, de Lafayette had a nice career in Philly, as well.

*I wouldn't trade Drabek and would want the Phils to keep one of either Brown or Taylor.

*I'd trade Donald in the right deal, but he strikes me as a guy the Sox get and he ends up having a long career.

*See above regarding Bastardo, but mostly b/c I don't think anybody really knows of what he really could become, if anything.

*Savery with another win a couple of nights ago. 5-1 on the year.

*BAP dreaming that Bastardo has a bad start tomorrow night is a good thing. If BAP dreams of something POSITIVE happening, that's reason to worry.

* That four(?) thread long debate on Lidge-Broxton was ridiculous.

[tom]

Who cares what his salary is next year.
Will it really break the budget if he gets 10 mil instead of 8 mil? The place is jammed packed every night.
If he can win 15 games again he is a big help.

[Brian]

more importantly, J.Roll has been dreadful lately.

[AWH]

Some possibly helpful info on Jamie Moyer, who has had bad stretches before:

April 6 to June 5, 2007:

12 G, 5-4, 79.1 IP, 4.08 ERA

June10 - July 21, 2007:

8 G, 3-5, 46.1 IP, 6.60 ERA

July 27 - Sept. 30, 2007:

13 G, 7-6, 73.2 IP, 5.01 ERA

2009 record:

10 G, 4-5, 53.1 IP, 6.75 ERA

is starting to look suspiciously similar to the 8 game stretch in 2007.

Conclusion:

It's too early for anyone to say it's time to stick a fork in him.

[RSB]

Brian: I am the furthest thing from a reactionary where Rollins is concerned. But he needs to be hitting seventh between Feliz and Ruiz right now. He's been just awful all year at the plate. He needs to realize that his bat has lost the quickness required to stand right on the plate, for one thing. He's just not turning on the ball like he used to. After two months, you can't go around thinking it's just a slump. You'd better start trying something different.

[J.R. King]

RSB: Perhaps his bat has lost it's quickness because he gained a little weight in the off-season. Ironic because he also got engadged to a personal trainer.

[Lake Fred]

I've been away for a few days, I'm excited about Moyer finally winning 250 games. Lets hope he wins no. 260 this year, too!

I'm real excited about Bastardo. He's been successful in his minor league stops and I see no reason why it cannot continue. He might be the unexpected pleasure of the season. Let's wish him luck.

I usually do not wear the Phillies Pink Sunglasses (making everything look rosy) when looking at Phillies players, but I'm wearing them for Bastardo. Now, for guys like Kendrick, the sunglasses are extra dark gray!

[AWH]

Brian, so has Werth.

Since May 14, Werth's #s:

.179, .225, .299, .524, with 2 HR, 5 RBI, 4 BB, and 22 K in 71 PA.

[bay_area_phan]

clout: I can't give you a bright line for how high a previously good pitcher's ERA must be in order for him to be declared "washed up." But let's just say that if it's higher than 5.50, or the ERA+ is lower than about 80, I think it's pretty unambiguous.

The issue with Moyer is not about ERA per se. Surely almost everyone on this board would agree that ERA/ERA+ give you a pretty good overall picture of the pitcher's performance. And surely there isn't a poster here who thinks that a starting pitcher with a 6.75 ERA is adequately getting the job done. The issue with Moyer is whether 2 months with a 6.75 ERA is sufficient evidence to declare him "washed up." To me, the answer depends on a variety of factors, such as the pitcher's age, his repertoire of pitches, how hard he's getting hit, his peripheral numbers, etc.

[GBrettfan]

Re: Rollins. I read that he was trying something different. Maybe he reverted, b/c at the time I read of him saying that, he was hitting well. Interesting stat posted by Zolecki, in light of how much complaining there is about Rollins not taking pitches. He ranks 47th, so in the top 100 among players, at NOT swinging at first pitches He swings at 18.4% of first pitches. I don't know how he compares to other leadoff hitters.

Re: Jamie - I thought AWH's post was good. Personally, I'd like to see him average or slightly above, not below, with an ERA in the low-mid 4's. I'd like to see Cole Hamel consistently give up 3 or fewer ERs. Blanton low-4's, and whoever replaces Myers 3-4 ERs. Realistic? I don't really know.

[thephaithful]

clout: i guess that definition is the main squabble. I don't think of Moyer as washed up, but I do not think he can be counted on with much confidence to competively pitch in important games. Can he? Yes(Game 3 of WS). But can he at a frequency that can be considered mlb worthy? My money(not heart) is on No.

[AWH]

More on Moyer:

Apr 30, 2005 to Jun 28, 2005:

11 G, 2-3, 58.1 IP, 6.17 ERA.

He finished the year like this:

32 G, 13-7, 200 IP, 4.28 ERA

[bay_area_phan]

At the risk of sounding like a lawyer, there is a sub-issue with Moyer, which no one has mentioned: what exactly is the burden of proof that we are dealing with, when we say he's "washed up" or needs to be replaced?

There seems to be a group which believes that, until and unless there is absolute certainty that Moyer can no longer be an effective starter, the Phillies are not permitted to remove him from the rotation.

This view is just bizarre to me. Of course, no one can declare, WITH CERTAINTY, that Moyer is finished. Even if he finishes the year with a 6.75 ERA, you still can't say with certainty that he's incapable of coming back and having a good year in 2010.

We are dealing in probabities here. If the Phillies believe that Moyer will PROBABLY not be a good starter for the rest of 2009, then they would be fools to not look for alternatives in their starting rotation. Of course, there are varying degrees of probability. I think it's fair to say that some posters need a greater degree of probability than others before they are ready to say that Moyer is no longer an adequate starter. Considering what the Phillies are paying him, and considering that he's on a 2-year deal, the Phillies are almost surely among the group that needs a pretty strong degree of probability before they'll look for alternatives.

[AWH]

bap: "To me, the answer depends on a variety of factors, such as the pitcher's age, his repertoire of pitches, how hard he's getting hit, his peripheral numbers, etc."

phaithful: "i guess that definition is the main squabble. I don't think of Moyer as washed up, but I do not think he can be counted on with much confidence to competively pitch in important games."

bap, of course it depends on that other stuff, too.

phaithful, if you look at Moyer's record from age 40 until last year, he really couldn't be "counted on with much confidence to competively pitch in important games."

Unless you don't think 2008 was an outlier.

[donc]

Was at the game yesterday. Moyer did pitch well but there were an awful lot of scorching line drives right at people. The first inning play by Vic comes to mind. He got a phenomenal jump on that ball that may not have been evident on TV. The next guy sends him back to the wall. He pitched well, but not THAT well. I was encouraged to see him get Adam Dunn looking though. It seems to me when Jamie is going well he freezes a lot of guys with his excellent location.

[mikes77phillies]

Re: Jaime Moyer being finished.
I don't recall anyone specifically saying Moyer was finished. What I recall is there were many saying he does'nt deserve to be in the rotation anymore than Chan Ho Park, consisdering he had the worst ERA In Major League Baseball. I have a hard time saying any pitcher is finished, but even if he isnt finished, I can wish that they had a better player in his spot.

[RSB]

J.R.: I don't think Rollins is in any way out of shape. But playing shortstop and being a base-stealer can be a taxing on the body after awhile. Rollins has looked downright *old* at the plate for over a year now. His bat isn't getting around with the same quickness. He has said many times that the offensive problems are mainly an issue of 'timing'. Obviously, I'm not in the guy's body, but it appears to me that he needs to adjust his hitting approach by compensating for this loss of bat speed. And a good start would be to move off the plate so he can start doing a little more with all the pitches he gets on the inner part of the plate.

[AWH]

bap, my whole point inposting similar bad stretches by Moyer in past seasons is to point out:

Based on the fact that he has had bad stretches before, it's impossible for anyone to say with any certainty that he's washed up at this point.

Even at the age of 40, in 2003, when he went 21-7 with a 3.27 ERA for the season, he had a stretch between July 5th and August 26th (10 G) where his ERA was 5.03.

In at age 41, in 2004, from July 6th to October 2nd (17 G), he was 1-9 with a 6.55 ERA.

Would you have declared a 40-41 yr. old pitcher "washed up" then?

I'm not saying I know the answer one way or another as to whether he's washed up right now.

What I am saying is that, based on his track record (and I didn't have to do that much research) no one does.

[AWH]

donc, your point about the defense helphing out Moyer has always been true - for EVERY pitcher.

Bill James 1988 Absract:

Primer #10 - "A great deal of what is perceived as being pitching is in fact defense."

To wit, Brad Lidge was not perfect in save opportunities last season. I point to 2 examples, though there are others:

One, Atlanta, when Vic cut the runner down at the plate to end the game. Lidge had blown it, but the defense bailed him out.

Two, the great DP JRoll started with the bases loaded and one out to end the game and clinch the division.

In both cases Lidge was the pitcher and earned the "Save", but he didn't pitch that well, and it was the defense that really 'saved' the game.

[AWH]

"I have a hard time saying any pitcher is finished, but even if he isnt finished, I can wish that they had a better player in his spot."

Ummm, mikey, isn't that true of almost every position player as well?

Wouldn't you rather have Beltran, Granderson, Kemp, Sizemore(healthy) in CF than Vic?

Wouldn't you rather have Beltre or Wright than Pete Happy at 3B?

Wouldn't you rather have Pujols instead of Howard at 1B?

Wouldn't you rather have Joe Mauer instead of Chooch at C?

Wouldn't you rather have Alex Rios or Hunter Pence (or even maybe 21 yr old Justin Upton) in RF instead of Werth?

I think you see my point.

[Brian]

I have to agree, that werth could definitely benefit from a few days off. He looks lost at the plate, and the best contact he made was a flutter to the shortstop. Rollins looks like he is trying to lift everything to the outfield instead of taking even swings. Maybe its time him and victorino switched slots in the line-up. At least then, if rollins hits a deep fly, it might be a productive out instead of a waste.

[timr]

"If the Phillies believe that Moyer will PROBABLY not be a good starter for the rest of 2009, then they would be fools to not look for alternatives in their starting rotation."

I think this was true until Myers went down. Myers' injury makes Moyer's poor performance less likely to be addressed. Moyer will have to do even worse now for him to be replaced, considering the huge hole in the rotation that Myers left. I think they'll have to feel absolutely certain that he's done before they remove him in favor of another rookie.

[Hitman]

I have been Moyer's harshest critic. Even when he is "being effective," opposing hitters are teeing off on his slow stuff. We don't have to debate his terrible ERA this year. To this point, he has been dreadful. Those who are inclined to believe that last night's game represents a turnaround are delusional. Is the next phase of this discussion an argument about semantics? Can we EVER say that he is washed up, or should we be more precise in asserting only that he has been ineffective to this point, holding out the possibility that things will change. We are challenged to "watch and learn" as Moyer miraculously turns it around. Well, let me be categorical at the risk of offending those who prefer to go through life with their heads up their you-know-where. Put a fork in Moyer, he's done. The mere fact that he may have a few good outings among several bad ones means NOTHING. Do baseball teams ever have bad games offensively? Answer: Of course. What we saw last night had more to do with the Nats than with Moyer. Watch and learn.

[bigmyc]

Throw enough crud up on a wall and some of it is bound to stick, eh, hitman?

The guy's 46 so you are gonna come up with this sobering revelation, this break through perspective that Moyer is over and out?...

Sounds like the braying of the proverbial (insert uncomplimentary word for, "donkey" here).

Well, no joke. Moyer understands all of this, yet all he did is go out with resolve and confidence the way he did all last year to lead this team.

When Jamie turns this thing around, I want you to be the first guy to show your face about your proclamation...but do us all a favor; clean that mug up a bit when you do...it'll be a little soiled considering where you keep it.