Game chat: Phils hope they saved some for tonight

After a 22-1 rout, the Phillies call on J.A. Happ, who looks to stay perfect and extend the Phillies streak to five, against Aaron Harang and the reeling Reds. First pitch is 7:05.

Preview: So what's the over/under on tonight's run total? I'd set it at about 2 1/2. Last night’s 22-1 win was the largest win in the Phillies’ modern era, according to the Phillies pre-game notes, and actually the third largest win in the history of the franchise. (Jayson Stark dedicated his entire blog entry today to digging up facts about the win). It was the largest gap since 1985, when the Phillies put up 26 runs. They lost the following day 7-3. The Phils beat the Cardinals last season by 18 runs. They lost the next day 3-2. Actually, the press notes report that in their previous 28 games after they’ve scored at least 20 runs, they're 13-14-1, the draw occurring against the New York Mutuals or some such club.

Savery, Susdorf honored: Congratulations to Reading left-hander and former first-round pick Joe Savery and Clearwater outfielder Steve Susdorf for being honored as Phillies minor league players of the month.

Untouchables: Finally, in reference to the Roy Halladay rumors, Todd Zolecki listed Kyle Drabek, Dominic Brown and Jason Knapp as three prospects the Phillies consider untouchable. It's the first I'd read that, so I'm passing that along.

Comments

[mvptommyd]

Finally a new thread for all the foolish talk to be over about rather keeping prospects than have Halladay the 2nd best pitcher in baseball for at least 1.5 years. To finish up the thought, now that we know the untouchables. I am 100% certain that BLer favorite Taylor, will not be a "stud". Amaro better "make them an offer they ca't refuse" so we can have Halladay on the Red Eye by tomorrow.

[mvptommyd]

Just noticed we are facing another BLer "potential #2 starter" for the Phillies. Tonight, should put those posters to rest.

[Bedrosian's Beard]

mvptommyd: No reason to start this thread out with condescending remarks offered to start an argument as opposed to a good back and forth discussion as last thread (generally) was.

[DCS]

Can we talk about why all these baseball players have dumb chin beard things? Seriously. It is TERRIBLE. Look at that picture of Harang. Putzy Nic Cage looking already, made 7000x worse by the chin beard thing. Same with Scott Eyre, and even my boy, Joe "Heavy B" Blanton.

[mvptommyd]

Bed: Last thread was awful. Typical BLer style. One group against another group. With the group citing prospects stats to back up their claim that the prospects would work out in the long run over the 2nd best pitcher in baseball. Even though 60-70% of prospects don't end up being anything. Then in August, that same group will be complaining about Amaro "not making a move" when in the end, they wanted to trade billy from AA for Halladay, like the other teams don't have scouts.

That is why I come ehre once a week now. It is beyound absurd.

[bay_area_phan]

Just out of curiosity, MVP, if Halladay is the second best pitcher in baseball, who is the best?

[mvptommyd]

BAP: Johan.

[king myno]

I love how MVP dismisses the conversation as "one group against another group". Oh, you mean like Trade For Him vs. Don't Trade For Him?

I wasn't aware there was any other way to discuss such a topic; there's no Maybe scenario.

[thephaithful]

Its nice to list players as untouchable, so if you ever do make one of them available, the opposing GM might think he's really getting somewhere--but in reality i doubt anyone is an untouchable, especially two kids still in A Ball.

I would try to keep Drabek out of any deal, but I can't imagine Toronto coming away without Drabek in a Halladay deal to the Phils, he'd be marked almost immediately.

[mvptommyd]

BAP: Don't worry your boy Lincecum is in my top 5.

[Jonesman]

You foolish typical BLers! how can you think that a GM should have parameters before entering in to trade negotiations?

[zp]

DCS: my chin beard vehemently disagrees with your assertions.

[Tim Lincecum]

I know you hate statistics but I think I'm probably better than both of those guys.

Check out my ERA+!

[bay_area_phan]

MVP: Johann has certainly been the best pitcher of the decade and still belongs in the conversation for best pitcher in baseball. But, right now, I would have to pick Lincecum.

[doubleh]

Yeah, but Timmy, you ain't going anywhere. You are young and currently cost controlled.

I would take you over Roy and Johan.

[mvptommyd]

King: No, the groups Trade him VS. Trade him, BUT not for Taylor and/or Drabek. My point is, Halladay is proven, those other guys aren't.Then those same people will be on Amaro for not making a move in August, then say "no I didn't say don't trade for Halladay". It is hilarious. And some here think WIP is bad, this is a trainwreck.

[R.Billingsly]

Tommy: "One group against another group." It's called a debate. BL is full of them. I actually enjoyed the discussion/debate on the last thread. It's nice to get other opinions and viewpoints. Perhaps someone brought up something you didn't think of, or vice versa. People have differing opinions. It's ok.

If BL has become "beyond absurd," maybe a once a week visit is too much.

[mvptommyd]

LOL, how did I know he was going to say Lincecum, see my post 1 minute after I said Johan...

"BAP: Don't worry your boy Lincecum is in my top 5.

Posted by: mvptommyd | Tuesday, July 07, 2009 at 04:14 PM "

Lincecum has only 3 years experience, 0 playoff games won and not even a free agent yet. NO WAY is he better than Johan, Halladay, maybe even Hamels. But I have Timmy as tied for 3rd with MVP Hamels.

[thephaithful]

mvp: posters here like to reference stats and opinions because unlike you, they would rather discuss facts instead of make up things off the top of their head like "60-70% of prospects dont end up being anything".

Dont end up being anything?! - what does that even mean? they dont make the MLB, they get hurt, they disappear into thin air?

60-70%? Where is this magical number coming from? How do you badmouth other posters when you spout off jibberish like this?

[loctastic]

groups? are we talking about BL Elite again? I'm still waiting for my invitation there.

[mvptommyd]

BAP: Are you sure your not a Giants Troll??

1. Always negative
2. Has a man crush on Lincecum when he is 2 years into his pro career.

[Unikruk]

Tommy, could you make it once a month?

And please stop the hyperbolic optimism - player development is epistemologically unknowable, and your perfect surety of a future outcome betrays your lack of both education and introspection.

[J.R. King]

It's funny how every time mvptommyd types on this board, he finds the discussion foolish.

Tommy: I don't want to tell you not to read this site. I'd hate to be responsible for driving away a reader and reducing Weitzel's page views. But why do you come here?

This board, in case you haven't noticed, is populated by people who like to discuss things like proposed trade deals. Some people think Halliday is worth losing Kyle Drabek. Others disagree. We discuss these matters. We use scouting reports, whatever stats are available, and observations we make in person or on television. Sometimes we're civil (clout, thanks for answering my question earlier about Brown v. Taylor) othertimes we're not civil (b_a_p, no one wants to hear your opinion ... take care of your billable hours and leave us alone ... kidding, of course).

So Tommy, if you think this is foolish or absurd, don't post here.

b_a_p: The number 1 pitcher in the league, for my money, is 2009 All-Star Ryan Franklin.

[doubleh]

mvp: As in all walks of life, it is rare to find that everyone will agree with you. Most come here because they like debate and hearing the OTHER side of the issue.

WIP is not debate. It's one caller who makes a point, is dismissed as a moron and it's over. The only reason they get picked to even be on the air is because they pass the moron test. The hosts don't want rational, reasonable people on the air because that doesn't keep listeners.

WIP is much worse than this could ever be, even when there are trolls.

[R.Billingsly]

Uh oh. It happened again. Instead of discussing relevant baseball topics, we have turned to arguing with Tommmy about nonsense.

[Jonesman]

MVPTommy- any chance you can let us know what the one day a week you are going to show up is? I guess 6 days out of 7 with intelligent rational debate isn't too bad...

[mvptommyd]

Phaithful: I am going by my opinion. For every 10 "highly regarded prospects", 4 actually become productive MLB players. While 6 become very very mediocre if that.

Example: For every Hamels, Howard, Utley, Rollins there are guys like Golston, Marlon Byrd, Gavin Floyd, Scott Mathieson, etc...

[loctastic]

doubleh - in fairness, that's just Eskin's show. the mid-day show is decent.

[Dan Haren]

Do I meet your standards? I've won a playoff game and I've signed an extension and I've been pretty good in my own right.

Better even than Johan this year, at least I think so.

[mvptommyd]

HH: What's not rational is BLer. A site full of "WannaBe GM's". I am frankly tired of coming here and getting beat over the head and ridiculed for my opinion. Because my opinion is based on baseball experience, watching the game, AND stats. When here it is 100% on stats and trends. Then when I am right, I get denounced again and told that "Sample size isn't big enough". Is that rational???

[Lake Fred]

MVPTommy has been hitting the water pipe again.

There were three sides on the last thread.

Side One: Get Halladay, but don't give up Drabek.

Side Two: Get Halladay, and giving up Drabek is okay.

Side Three (MVPTommy - only member): Get Halladay, give up as many prospects as Toronto wants.

[mvptommyd]

Lake: Wrong.

Side Three: Give up Taylor, Drabek, Happ and Marson to get Halladay

[CJ]

Don't feed the trolls. Even when they claim to be Phillies fans. Thank you.

[SmokyJoe]

Jason should ban Tommy as he would an unruly Mets Troll...he's going to drive away posters and readers. I read right past his posts, but when he dominates the board it's not possible, so I might just have to skip the threads like this one.

He keeps threatening to not come to the site, but I wish he'd stop crying wolf and actually do it.

Tommy, you are literally unbearable. Do you realize that you are constantly posting on a board that you claim you can't stand? Please go away. You won't be missed, but probably mentioned frequently as a cautionary tale.

[MG]

mvp - Seen Lincecum and Hamels pitch in person a couple of times and I put Hollywood on the next US Airways flight to SFO for Linceum straight up.

Lincecum has Cy Young stuff and 3 plus pitches. Hamels doesn't.

[J.R. King]

Anyone else notice that JW's new music selection is titled "Weitzel Doesn't Think You'll Like" ... A bit of reverse psychology there? ... "What do you mean you don't think I'll like it? I will too like it. I'm gonna go buy some right now!"

loctastic: Agreed on the midday show. Macnow is actually pretty intelligent and Gargano can make me laugh once in a while.

[CJ]

Zolecki reports Victorino is still in 2nd behind Sandoval. My thoughts? Even is Sandoval wins the fan vote, Vic gets selected as the first injury replacement for Beltran.

[Unikruk]

CJ: I normally agree with you, though sometimes disputing the chowderhead's attempt at a point forces us to refine our arguments or make explicit certain common assumptions. I also like calling him a poopie-head.

[mvptommyd]

I used to come to this site for information on prospects and for good opinions on signings and trades. Then every time I came here I would be on the "other" side of arguments ( Ibanez vs. Burrell, Defending Amaro vs. Amaro Haters etc, etc...). Then I would get called names for not going by the latest trends and stats. In conclusion, I would be right and called more names.

I do not need to have the internet be my life and subjected to such nonsense. So sorry JW. I haven't been coming on as much. I don't like to waste time and this site with the posters here has become that.

I can have the same conversations, with more "rational" fans att he ballpark in my seats, minus the name calling. Where it is actually a fun atmosphere. Therefore starting last week when my ticket plan really started picking up, I have been coming here much less if at all.

[R.Billingsly]

I hate to get involved in this again, but I will.

Tommy: To come to a baseball discussion board and assume that no one outside of yourself has played the game at high levels is a little unfair. This is not the first time you have attempted to shoe-horn in the fact that you played baseball in college (or whatever level it was). To say that BL is "100% on stats and trends" is disingenuous. Sometimes there are posters who go overboard on certain items, but I find the debate to be generally fair.

I'm not a stat guy by any means. They are not the be all, end all. But, I do not disparage anyone for using them to make a point. Facts (i.e. statistics) are necessary to back up opinion. Simply saying "I watched the game" is not always good enough. Stats can be deceiving, but so can one's eyes.

There is a balance to stats and observation, and I think that many on here have found that balance.

But, that shouldn't dissuade you from coming to BL. Everyone's opinion is important. That's what makes the debate here great. I was extremely timid at first to post (and I still don't too often), but you just have to let it out and let it go. Back up your opinion, if you believe it to be correct and shrug it off. Don't come on and knock the way other people debate (stats v. non-stats). It's opinion, not fact.

[Unikruk]

No need to apologize to JW, you drive his pageviews up.

More importantly, we're not out to get you. If a poster repeatedly dangles nonsense, someone is going to call him on it. Your feeling of persecution has more basis in psychopathological delusion than reality.

[mvptommyd]

RBill: "Facts (i.e. statistics) are necessary to back up opinion"

Really tell that to 3/4's the posters...

[MG]

From Murphy's blog on Halladay:

1. Dominic Brown, J.A. Happ, Kyle Kendrick, John Mayberry Jr.
2. Drabek, Jason Donald or Lou Marson, Andrew Carpenter, Player TBA
3. Drabek, J.A. Happ, John Mayberry Jr., Player TBA
4. Drabek, Michael Taylor, J.A. Happ, Player TBA
5. Dominic Brown, Carlos Carrasco, Lou Marson, Kyle Kendrick

Resounding "Yes, where do I sign" to all of these scenarios except Maybe scenario 4 because you are giving up 2 young arms.

Still, if it only takes either a Brown/Drabek along with some other pieces the Phils need to make that move.

The real issue though is Halladay needs likely would want a real lengthy extension at really big dollars to waive his no-trade clause. I can't see him being crazy about the prospect of playing in Philly or having to pitch in CBP.

[Bay Slugga]

I'm very much for getting getting Doc, even though I'd hate to see Taylor and Drabek go.

I think a lot of BLers want to trade for this front end starter but don't want to give up the prospects. If we don't want to give up our top prospects, then we may have to settle for a Moyer, Loshe, or Blanton type move.

Personally, I'd be OK with either move.

[MG]

mvp - Yeah there is no need for name calling but you aren't exactly civil in your discourse either or take a mild tone in response which is fine. Just call a spade a spade.

[R.Billingsly]

Tommy: That is not read as "Facts (meaning ONLY statistics)..."

There are other sources of fact besides stats.

[mvptommyd]

Unikruk: Really? Go back and read threads from last winter where I was called a "moron", "idiot", "knit wit", "clueless about baseball" about various topics that in the end I was correct about haha.

Specifically threads on

- Ibanez
- Mayberry being called up to the big club this year
- Ruiz having a good season
- Lidge and Madson not having interchangable roles
- Amaro keeping the core together past this year

Then you will see why I am through with this board on a daily basis.

[Greg V]

Yeah the "untouchables" I have a feeling are very touchable if they are getting ROY HALLADAY in return! At least they better be!

[rob]

mvp tommy... Nitpicking here.. I wouldn't include Marlon Byrd as a prospect with no major league career. Starting CF batting .285 w/ an OPS of 800 says he has a career

[R.Billingsly]

Back to the discussion at hand.

I'm glad Jason did the research for me because I recall the Phils having difficulty after last years rout of the Cards. I hope that they can maintain their recent string of good approaches at the plate. Going 4-2 over the next 6 against the Reds and Pirates would be a nice way to head into the break.

[rob]

o yeah Gavin Floyd.. He has a career too

[bay_area_phan]

MVP: The reason I asked the question in the first place was because I was expecting you to give a preposterous answer like Hamels. To my surprise, you gave a reasonable answer when you said Santana. But then you had to go and ruin it with a preposterous follow-up which rated Lincecum and Hamels as equals.

What does Lincecum's free agency date have to do with whether he's the best pitcher in baseball? And how is it Lincecum's fault that his team hasn't made the post-season? Santana, by the way, has exactly 1 more post-season win in his career than Lincecum.

I can buy the argument that Lincecum doesn't have a sufficient body of work to be declared best pitcher in baseball but, if you define best pitcher as the guy who has pitched the best over the last year and a half, he's clearly it.

[MG]

Real issue with Halladay would be the Phils giving him an extension at a minimum of 4 yrs @ $20M per although the only guys the Phils have signed beyond '11 at this point is Lidge (through '12) and Utley ('13).

Phils really have constructed there roster and contracts through 2011. After that it is wait and see and I would be surprised if they would be willing to make a $20M+ commitment to Halladay in say 2013 or 2014 which is likely what it would take to get him here on an extension.

[mvptommyd]

rob: I didn't say "no major league career" I said "While 6 become very very mediocre if that".

Marlon Bryd's Career numbers are 47 HR, 288 RBI's, 462 K's, .279/.341/.414/

Those numbers are mediocre as I said. And he was a "high" prospect.

[Unikruk]

Don't forget, I implied you were a poopie-head.

[MG]

mvp - So people call you an something foolish like an "idiot" and you get discouraged by that? You must work in an a meek office.

[CJ]

Billingsly: I looked it up for last thread. The Phils went 1-8 after hanging 20 on the the Cardinals, scoring 27 runs in the 9 games.

However, the Phils dropped 20 on the Rockies last year a day after putting up 15 against the Astros and followed their 20-run game by scoring 7, 6, 12 in their next three. They were 10-2 in the 12 games following that 20-run game.

[mvptommyd]

BAP: The ONLY reason I listed Lincecum and Hamels as equals was because Lincecum is great, no question. If I were starting a team he would be my #1. But Hamels won 2 MVP's and was undefeated in the playoffs last year. That in itself is insane.

[mvptommyd]

MG: "You must work in an a meek office."

No, I don't get degraded at work. I am good at my job and never have been called any of those words since I was a kid. That is what childish people call each other.

[R.Billingsly]

Thanks for reposting that, CJ. I must have skipped over it during the name-calling session. I'm curious to see how they do tonight.

[bay_area_phan]

Well, by that criteria, Josh Beckett belongs in your top 5 also. He has a World Series and LCS MVP, and has won 7 post-season games. Beckett is a fine pitcher, but I don't think very many people would call him one of the top pitchers in baseball.

[MG]

mvp - As for correct, isn't a bit presumptuous to announce yourself correct on a couple of points including:

1. Ruiz having a good season - Dropping like a rock and the question is whether he hits enough this summer to end up with numbers more like '07 than '08.

2. Calling up Mayberry - Mayberry has clearly looked overmatched at times especially against RHP or anyone with a decent offspeed pitch.

Calling Mayberry up was kind of a no-brainer because the other RH options were stiffs like Cairo/Bruntlett and with the Ibanez injury in June. Phils simply needed another OF.

3. Amaro keeping the core together - Everyone on the Phils FO has spoken the past year or so that they wanted to keep this core together.

Amaro did do a good job on signing players but he didn't have to get terribly creative either because management stepped up with the bucks this season. If their payroll had stayed at last year's levels, than Amaro would have had to have gotten very creative.

Ibanez clearly has been superior to Burrell this year in every aspect and Madson struggled as a closer. Doesn't mean it wasn't worth a try at this point with Madson as the closer given Lidge's health issues.

[CJ]

Jon Heyman tweeted, "i'm hearing reyes "could come quick." technically, it may be too late for that. still, rare good news."

And then he tweeted, "by "quick" on reyes, that doesn't mean right away, by the way. thats just 1 opinion, anyway. so let's not get crazy."

[Mac Tonight]

I'm beginning to wonder if clout and Tommy are the same person. Perhaps Tommy is an alter ego to allow Clout to argue with himself when no one else takes the bait.

At any rate, I stand by my previous statement: The Blue Jays CANNOT afford to pay Halladay, Rios and Wells...and they know it. Either that or they're not confident that Halladay's injuries are behind him.

Why else would a team that is six games out of the wild card (with the same number of wins as the Phillies, I might add) be so anxious to listen to offers for the "best pitcher in the game"?

The bottom line is this: there are very few teams that have both the minor league depth and the financial resources to make this trade with the Blue Jays. I can think of only three, and two of those three are Toronto's division rivals.

If the GM is coming out publicly to announce that he'll listen to all offers for his ace, he's probably already decided to dump the salary.

Now is the time for Amaro to play hard ball. Offer up some combination (3 or 4) of Kendrick, Carasco, Marson, Donald, Worley, Carpenter, Knapp, Bruntlett, Dobbs, Mayberry, Bastardo or Sergio. Tell Ricciardi that if he can make a better deal elsewhere, make it.

We don't need Halladay. It'd be awesome to have him, but we don't need him. If this deal takes place, it should be on the Phillies terms.

Besides, adding an ace does not a WFC make. Ask Sabathia, who was arguably the best pitcher in the game in 2008, how his presence "guaranteed" the Brewers a win in a best of 5 series (as some claimed in the previous thread that Halladay would do for us). Ask the Mets how adding Santana, who is arguably the best pitcher in the game, has guaranteed a playoff dynasty.

The Diamondbacks played hardball in the Shilling trade. We made the deal.

The Yankees played hardball in the Abreu trade. We made the deal.

The Cardinals played hardball in the Rolen trade. We made the deal.

It's time that our GM play hardball for a change. We are a 2009 championship caliber team with or without Halladay. Get him if you can, but only if the price is right.

[loctastic]

weird, didn't think Heyman would start reposting Deadspin rumors

[bay_area_phan]

Mac: A team which is 6 games out is not technically out of it, but it's a tough deficit to make up and the odds of doing so are pretty slim. Besides, it's not just about the size of the deficit. The teams they are chasing are Boston & the Yankees, both of whom have obviously better rosters than the Jays. Considering they're going to lose Halladay after next year, it's not unreasonable for them to deal him now & try to get as much as possible.

The idea that Toronto is going to give up Halladay for a package of B and C-level prospects, however, is beyond laughable. As I recall, 5 days ago, you were in full-blown panic mode. Now, after a few wins, your position is that we don't need a pitcher?

[NEPP]

I would make almost any trade for Halladay and I doubt I'm alone. Other than giving up BOTH Drabek and Carrasco or BOTH Taylor and Brown. I'm completely okay with one of each grouping, and a couple other prospects.

Our window is the next couple seasons, not 5 years from now. Win Now.

[bay_area_phan]

Also, Mac, the reason the Phillies have gotten raked over the coals on all these major deals (Schilling, Rolen, Abreu) is because they get it in their head that a trade HAD to be made. Once the other GMs sniffed that out, they took advantage.

I do not get the sense that Toronto is overly determined to trade Halladay. Their GM merely said that he would listen to offers. They are not trading out of desperation, the way the Phillies were in the Schilling, Rolen & Abreu deals.

[NEPP]

So I think we should offer the following package, take it or leave it:

Kyle Kendrick
Eric Bruntlett
Brian Mazone
Andy Tracy
Mike Cervenak

Think they'll go for it?

[Pete Happy]

"Also, Mac, the reason the Phillies have gotten raked over the coals on all these major deals (Schilling, Rolen, Abreu) is because Ed Wade was the GM."

BAP -- fixed your post.

[Mac Tonight]

I'm not saying that Toronto is a playoff favorite, but it is only July and they do have the best pitcher in the game. Tampa accomplished far more with arguably less, and the Sox and Yankees are not the untouchable giants they have been in years past.

I agree...trading an ace for B/C level prospects is laughable. The Shilling, Rolen and Abreu trades were pretty laughable too. What makes this trade less laughable is the money owed to Halladay. If his salary were different, perhaps trading Taylor, Drabek, Happ or Brown wouldn't be out of the question, but for over $7 million dollars of salary relief, our blue chips should be completely off of the table.

I wasn't in "full panic mode" at any point. I did say that the Phillies should move on a free agent starter, but I was pretty consistent in the good times and bad that we should not give up our blue chip prospects for pitching, and that if we were willing to add salary anyway, we'd be better served to keep our prospects and pick a #4 or #5 from the free agent pool in Pedro (I also mentioned Sheets, Byrd and Glavine in the past).

Don't make the mistake of believing that the Blue Jays have us over a barrel when it's closer to being the other way around. Amaro is in the drivers seat. Before Ricciardi made this announcement, I think it's safe to say that we were all in agreement that the Phillies should win the division. Since the post-season rotation won't have changed much from 2008, I don't see why Ricciardi's announcement should cause the Phillies to panic themselves into believing that a WFC repeat wouldn't be possible without Halladay.

[Jack]

NEPP, that may be overpaying in quantity. I'd probably offer a package with just Gosewich, Milner and Bruntlett. Take it or leave it, Riccardi. We don't need Halladay, but you need those guys!

[bay_area_phan]

I don't think either team has the other over a barrel. The Blue Jays don't have to trade Halladay, and the Phillies don't have to acquire him. When the two sides are dealing at arm's length, they usually end up either making a relatively even trade or no trade at all. The latter option is the most likely scenario.

[NEPP]

True...I was pretty much giving them an entire new infield...what was I thinking?

[king myno]

Mac - It's extremely possible, but if you want to battle tooth and nail until game 161 and then have the good fortune to get lockdown pitching at exactly the right time, be my guest.

Me, I'd rather make a move that could take a lot of that out of the equation - Roy Halladay.

[clout]

Mac: The notion that the Jays would trade Halladay for the the package you propose is the dumbest I've seen on here.

[CJ]

Eric Bruntlett is the only player on the Phils or Blue Jays rosters to score a World Series-winning run.

I think he's fairly untouchable.

[NEPP]

He's an 80 on the scouting scale for Versatility.

[donc]

It would seem to me that the X factor here is just what teams are legitimately in the Halladay sweepstakes. Are the Red Sox and Yankees out of it because they reside in the AL East? That is reasonable to assume. Who else is in the mix? We've seen the names of the Tigers, Brewers, Rangers etc. mentioned. If these teams are all in the hunt, then the Blue Jays might not be over a barrel at all. They would be holding an auction. An not an absolute one either since the option of keeping Halladay still exists. I find it hard to believe that they would trade him for anything less than Drabek and Taylor/Brown and at least one more of our top 4 or 5 farmhands. I hope I'm wrong but I would think they'd be insisting on Drabek. Carrasco has to have lost some trade value recently in light of the Phils unwillingness to bring him up when the rotation was in crisis. Taylor/ Brown? I would think the Phils would be determined to hold onto at least one of them. I don't see this one happening.

[NEPP]

Jon Heyman has the Phillies and Yankees as the early favorites to land Halladay (via Twitter)

Two thoughts:

1. Do the Yankees even have the prospects to make such a trade?
2. Would Ricciardi trade him within the AL East?

I'm thinking a solid No to both.

[donc]

BAP: I am humbled. You said in 4 sentences what took me a ten minutes to type.

[Mac Tonight]

The sarcastic humor is comical, but completely off base. No one is saying that the Blue Jays "need" our B and C level prospects. They do, however, need to dump salary, and that need outweighs our need for an ace.

We have more options to address our need than they have to address theirs. To take that kind of money off of their books, they'll take what we give them or they'll pass on it. Unless the Yankees or Red Sox are willing to offer more AND the Jays are willing to send the best SP to a division rival (which would certainly piss me off if I were a fan of a team with a .512 winning percentage in July), they'll take what we give them.

Considering the situation, $7 million plus of salary relief, Carassco, Kendrick, Mayberry and Donald or Marson is more than a fair offer.

If they don't take it, they don't take it. We have the tools to get the job done with or without Halladay. Halladay makes the task easier, but if we breezed through the playoffs with Hamels/Myers/Blanton/Moyer last post season, I fail to see why it's unreasonable to expect that we can contend with Hamels/Happ/Blanton/Moyer this year.

Don't be so blinded by a diamond that you forget what it costs.

[Mac Tonight]

Clout: Nobody cares what you have to say, least of all myself.

[bay_area_phan]

Why does Toronto need to dump salary? They wouldn't have signed all these guys if they couldn't afford to pay them.

[NEPP]

To BAP: Their revenue is majorly down across the board due to the economy...their attendance, advertising, etc. I suppose its possible their Owner has other financial issues on top of that.

[Hibachi]

"Why does Toronto need to dump salary? They wouldn't have signed all these guys if they couldn't afford to pay them."

I feel like I'm missing sarcasm here. But, anyway, on top of them not doing as well as they thought they would have financially with attendance and the economy in general, Wells, Rios and BJ Ryan not performing up to the level of their contracts is a huge factor.

[CJ]

bap: Word out of Toronto is that salary is DEFINITELY a factor in their attempts to move their high-priced stars.

[sneed]

clout: You seem to be missing the premise for Mac's arguement (which I have to say I agree with to an extent). If you are to assume, as he does, that the Phils are the only real trade partner for the Blue Jays at the deadline, then you really don't think the Jays would take Carrasco, Knapp, Marson and Donald (my top 4 of that bunch) for Halladay? Understand he has another year under contract but A) they are cash strapped as is and B) lose leverage next year when he's in a walk year, assuming they aren't running away with the division or the WC.

[NEPP]

Rogers Communication stock value is down 1/3 in the past year so that must have hurt their cash reserves. Perhaps they've told their Baseball Operations people that they need to cut payroll as they aren't getting what they thought attendance wise this year.

[Unikruk]

(Brief Flyers update: Pronger extended seven years, $35M.)

[Phils Fan in MD]

Aren't the Jays are looking to move Halladay because they've committed $140 mil to Rios and Wells already, and won't have enough money to re-sign him?

Mac - I disagree that we can return to the WS with a pitching staff of Hamels/Happ/Blanton/Moyer. If Hamels and Moyer were having good years, I might be inclined to agree with your statement, though.

I'm worried that if another good but not quite ready for prime time NL team gets their hands on him (a la the Dodgers or Brewers), that we could be in trouble come playoff time.

[clout]

Mac: That's OK, but this is still the dumbest post I've read in a week:

"Offer them Donald, Kendrick, Carasco and (Worley or Carpenter) - take it or leave it.
If they want to pay Wells and Rios and they don't want Halladay pitching for a division rival, they'll make the deal."

[NEPP]

Toronto Attendance

2007 - 29,144
2008 - 29,422
2009 - 22,840

That's a significant dip for them to take and their worst attendance since 2003.

Payroll in 2009 - $80.5 million
Payroll in 2003 - $51.2 million

[clout]

sneed: Please explain the facts behind the assumption "the Phils are the only real trade partner for the Blue Jays."

Thanks.

[bay_area_phan]

Well, if they're having revenue problems, that's one thing. I was not aware of that. But I don't see how the Wells, Ryan & Rios contracts have anything to do with the Roy Halladay situation. How does trading away a high-priced high-performer solve the problem of having 3 high-priced under-performers?

[Mac Tonight]

BAP: When a GM says to the media that he'll "listen to offers" for arguably the best pitcher in the game who has another year left on his contract when his team has a .500+ record in July, he wants to dump salary. You don't really think the Jays are in rebuilding mode, do you? Besides, they could always keep Halladay and contend in 2009 and 2010 and take the draft pics if Halladay declines arbitration, right?

The only other scenario I can think of is that they're afraid he's an injury risk and they're going to get what they can while the gettin's good (see Garcia, Freddy).

It wasn't long ago that everyone criticized the front office for not giving up the farm for Sabathia and instead trading a few B-level prospects for the lowly Joe Blanton. Seems that it worked out pretty well for the Fightin's (and the Indians, for that matter), and not as well for the Brew Crew.

If the choice is between (A) mortgaging the farm of blue chip prospects in exchange for a year and a half of a recently DL'ed Halladay and his salary, (B) trading a B-level prospect for a servicable #4 or #5 or (C) keeping our farm intact and signing Pedro for a prorated $5 mil, I'd take option (C) first, option (B) second, and I'd pass on option (A) altogether.

I understand the giddyness at the idea of having a true ace in the rotation, but try to look at all possible outcomes. Granted, maybe none of our prospects amount to a hill of beans, but if I were a betting man, I'd bet that at least one of Drabek, Taylor or Brown will, and I'd argue that Happ already is. Add to that the salary issue, our relatively weak division, our playoff-tested rotation and the Blue Jays need to dump salary. I just don't see the intelligence in selling off the future for Halladay.

[Brian G]

Carrasco, Knapp, Donald, and Marson should be our starting offer. I assume with their packed outfield Taylor and Brown would be slightly less intriguing to them, but I'm very willing to include one of them, or I'd be willing to substitute Drabek for the Carrasco and Knapp combo. I'd do everything possible to avoid giving up both Drabek and one of Taylor or Brown, but wouldn't rule it out.

[NEPP]

I would insist on a FULL physical to include MRI's of his arm, back, etc. Its not a ridiculous requirement.

[sneed]

clout: No facts, just a basic assumption to make an argument in cyber space. My point is that IF the Jays were cornered on this deal, considering they are in financial trouble and will lose leverage with Halladay in a walk year next July, they would have good reason to bite on a deal with two ML ready AAA prospects, Carrasco and Knapp. Therefore, I don't think that was a dumb post at all.

[NEPP]

Can we not give up Knapp? I'd much rather give up a couple other B level guys than Knapp.